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Results for “Dynamic State Estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Koopman–von Neumann approach to quantum simulation of nonlinear classical dynamics

Quantum computers can be used to simulate nonlinear non-Hamiltonian classical dynamics on phase space by using the generalized Koopman–von Neumann formulation of classical mechanics. The Koopman–von Neumann formulation implies that the conservation of the probability distribution function on phase space, as expressed by the Liouville equation, can be recast as an equivalent Schrödinger equation on Hilbert space with a Hermitian Hamiltonian operator and a unitary propagator. This Schrödinger equation is linear in the momenta because it derives from a constrained Hamiltonian system with twice the classical phase-space dimension. A quantum computer with finite resources can be used to simulate a finite-dimensional approximation of this unitary evolution operator. Quantum simulation of classical dynamics is exponentially more efficient than a deterministic Eulerian discretization of the Liouville equation if the Koopman–von Neumann Hamiltonian is sparse. Utilizing quantum walk techniques for state preparation and amplitude estimation for the calculation of observables leads to a quadratic improvement over classical probabilistic Monte Carlo algorithms.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Autodifferentiable Ensemble Kalman Filters

Data assimilation is concerned with sequentially estimating a temporally evolving state. This task, which arises in a wide range of scientific and engineering applications, is particularly challenging when the state is high-dimensional and the state-space dynamics are unknown. This paper introduces a machine learning framework for learning dynamical systems in data assimilation. Here, our auto-differentiable ensemble Kalman filters (AD-EnKFs) blend ensemble Kalman filters for state recovery with machine learning tools for learning the dynamics. In doing so, AD-EnKFs leverage the ability of ensemble Kalman filters to scale to high-dimensional states and the power of automatic differentiation to train high-dimensional surrogate models for the dynamics. Numerical results using the Lorenz-96 model show that AD-EnKFs outperform existing methods that use expectation-maximization or particle filters to merge data assimilation and machine learning. In addition, AD-EnKFs are easy to implement and require minimal tuning.

autodifferentiation↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of plasma properties using an extended Kalman filter with plasma global models

A physically-constrained extended Kalman filter (EKF) is applied to various zero-dimensional global models for the estimation of plasma properties using time-dependent experimental data such as the plasma density or ion flux. The capability of the EKF is demonstrated to estimate unknown system states simultaneously, such as reaction rate coefficients and the absorbed electron input power, which can be difficult, if not impossible, to measure experimentally. Global models accounting for pure argon reactions and argon-oxygen reactions are used in this work to demonstrate the ability of the filter to estimate dynamic and complex systems. Furthermore, the results obtained from the EKF plasma global model illustrate that model-data fusion techniques can be used to estimate plasma properties and processes for time-varying systems, such as pulsed discharges.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Divergent urban land trajectories under alternative population projections within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Population change is a main driver behind global environmental change, including urban land expansion. In future scenario modeling, assumptions regarding how populations will change locally, despite identical global constraints of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), can have dramatic effects on subsequent regional urbanization. Using a spatial modeling experiment at high resolution (1 km), this study compared how two alternative US population projections, varying in the spatially explicit nature of demographic patterns and migration, affect urban land dynamics simulated by the Spatially Explicit, Long-term, Empirical City development (SELECT) model for SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5. The population projections included: (1) newer downscaled state-specific population (SP) projections inclusive of updated international and domestic migration estimates, and (2) prevailing downscaled national-level projections (NP) agnostic to localized demographic processes. Our work shows that alternative population inputs, even those under the same SSP, can lead to dramatic and complex differences in urban land outcomes. Under the SP projection, urbanization displays more of an extensification pattern compared to the NP projection. This suggests that recent demographic information supports more extreme urban extensification and land pressures on existing rural areas in the US than previously anticipated. Urban land outcomes to population inputs were spatially variable where areas in close spatial proximity showed divergent patterns, reflective of the spatially complex urbanization processes that can be accommodated in SELECT. Although different population projections and assumptions led to divergent outcomes, urban land development is not a linear product of population change but the result of complex relationships between population, dynamic urbanization processes, stages of urban development maturity, and feedback mechanisms. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for spatial variations in the population projections, but also urbanization process to accurately project long-term urban land patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic Virtual Battery Modeling of Uncertain Electrical Loads using Variational Autoencoder

Effective utilization of flexible loads for grid services, while satisfying end-user preferences and constraints, requires an accurate estimation of the aggregated predictive flexibility offered by the electrical loads. Recently, there have been efforts to quantify the predictive flexibility of thermostatic loads (e.g. residential air-conditioners, electric water-heaters) using the notion of virtual battery (VB), whose state evolution is governed by a first order dynamics including self-dissipation rate, and power and energy capacities. Identifying the VB model parameters for a collection of thermostatic loads, however, is challenging primarily due to uncertainties and lack of information regarding the end-user behavior, underlying device models and parameters. In this paper, we propose a \textit{variational autoencoder}-based deep learning algorithm to identify the parameters of the VB model. Using available sensors and meters data, the proposed algorithm generates not only point estimates of the VB parameters, but also confidence intervals around those values. Effectiveness of the proposed frameworks is demonstrated on a collection of electric water-heater loads, whose operation is driven by uncertain water usage profiles.

virtual battery, deep learning algorithms↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ultrafast optical control of surface and bulk magnetism in magnetic topological insulator/antiferromagnet heterostructure

Abstract Optical control of the magnetic properties in topological insulator systems is an important step in applying these materials in ultrafast optoelectronic and spintronic schemes. In this work, we report the experimental observation of photo-induced magnetization dynamics in the magnetically doped topological insulator (MTI)/antiferromagnet (AFM) heterostructure composed of Cr-(Bi,Sb) 2 Te 3 /CrSb. Through proximity coupling to the AFM layer, the MTI displays a dramatically enhanced magnetism, with robust perpendicular magnetic anisotropy. When subjected to intense laser irradiation, both surface and bulk magnetism of the MTI are weakened by laser-induced heating of the lattice, however, at the surface, the deleterious heat effect is compensated by the strengthening of Dirac-hole-mediated exchange coupling as demonstrated by an unconventional pump-fluence-dependent exchange-bias effect. Through theoretical analyses, the sizes of exchange coupling energies are estimated in the MTI/AFM bilayer structure. The fundamentally different mechanisms supporting the surface and bulk magnetic order in MTIs allow a novel and distinctive photo-induced transient magnetic state with antiparallel spin configuration, which broadens the understanding of the magnetization dynamics of MTIs under ultrashort and intense optical excitation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nonequilibrium thermodynamics of erasure with superconducting flux logic

We implement a thermal-fluctuation-driven logical bit reset on a superconducting flux logic cell. We show that the logical state of the system can be continuously monitored with only a small perturbation to the thermally activated dynamics at 500 mK. We use the trajectory information to derive a single-shot estimate of the work performed on the system per logical cycle. We acquire a sample of 10 5 erasure trajectories per protocol and show that the work histograms agree with both microscopic theory and global fluctuation theorems. The results demonstrate how to design and diagnose complex, high-speed, and thermodynamically efficient computing using superconducting technology.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adaptive Framework for Maintenance Scheduling Based on Dynamic Preventive Intervals and Remaining Useful Life Estimation

Data-based prognostic methods exploit sensor data to forecast the remaining useful life (RUL) of industrial settings to optimize the scheduling of maintenance actions. However, implementing sensors may not be cost-effective or practical for all components. Traditional preventive approaches are not based on sensor data; however, they schedule maintenance at equally spaced intervals, which is not a cost-effective approach since the distribution of the time between failures changes with the degradation state of other parts or changes in working conditions. This study introduces a novel framework comprising two maintenance scheduling strategies. In the absence of sensor data, we propose a novel dynamic preventive policy that adjusts intervention intervals based on the most recent failure data. When sensor data are available, a method for RUL prediction, designated k-LSTM-GFT, is enhanced to dynamically account for RUL prediction uncertainty. The results demonstrate that dynamic preventive maintenance can yield cost reductions of up to 51.8% compared to conventional approaches. The predictive approach optimizes the exploitation of RUL, achieving costs that are only 3–5% higher than the minimum cost achievable while ensuring the safety of critical systems since all of the failures are avoided.

Nunes, Pedro (ORCID:0000000180012172)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Energy dissipation efficiency in the CP43 assembly intermediate complex of photosystem II

Photosystem II in oxygenic organisms is a large membrane bound rapidly turning over pigment protein complex. During its biogenesis, multiple assembly intermediates are formed, including the CP43-preassembly complex (pCP43). Here, to understand the energy transfer dynamics in pCP43, we first engineered a His-tagged version of the CP43 in a CP47-less strain of the cyanobacterium Synechocystis 6803. Isolated pCP43 from this engineered strain was subjected to advanced spectroscopic analysis to evaluate its excitation energy dissipation characteristics. These included measurements of steady-state absorption and fluorescence emission spectra for which correlation was tested with Stepanov relation. Comparison of fluorescence excitation and absorptance spectra determined that efficiency of energy transfer from β-carotene to chlorophyll a is 39 %. Time-resolved fluorescence images of pCP43-bound Chl a were recorded on streak camera, and fluorescence decay dynamics were evaluated with global fitting. These demonstrated that the decay kinetics strongly depends on temperature and buffer used to disperse the protein sample and fluorescence decay lifetime was estimated in 3.2–5.7 ns time range, depending on conditions. The pCP43 complex was also investigated with femtosecond and nanosecond time-resolved absorption spectroscopy upon excitation of Chl a and β-carotene to reveal pathways of singlet excitation relaxation/decay, Chl a triplet dynamics and Chl a → β-carotene triplet state sensitization process. The latter demonstrated that Chl a triplet in the pCP43 complex is not efficiently quenched by carotenoids. Finally, detailed kinetic analysis of the rise of the population of β-carotene triplets determined that the time constant of the carotenoid triplet sensitization is 40 ns.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Avoiding fusion plasma tearing instability with deep reinforcement learning

For stable and efficient fusion energy production using a tokamak reactor, it is essential to maintain a high-pressure hydrogenic plasma without plasma disruption. Therefore, it is necessary to actively control the tokamak based on the observed plasma state, to manoeuvre high-pressure plasma while avoiding tearing instability, the leading cause of disruptions. This presents an obstacle-avoidance problem for which artificial intelligence based on reinforcement learning has recently shown remarkable performance. However, the obstacle here, the tearing instability, is difficult to forecast and is highly prone to terminating plasma operations, especially in the ITER baseline scenario. Previously, we developed a multimodal dynamic model that estimates the likelihood of future tearing instability based on signals from multiple diagnostics and actuators. Here we harness this dynamic model as a training environment for reinforcement-learning artificial intelligence, facilitating automated instability prevention. We demonstrate artificial intelligence control to lower the possibility of disruptive tearing instabilities in DIII-D, the largest magnetic fusion facility in the United States. The controller maintained the tearing likelihood under a given threshold, even under relatively unfavourable conditions of low safety factor and low torque. In particular, it allowed the plasma to actively track the stable path within the time-varying operational space while maintaining H-mode performance, which was challenging with traditional preprogrammed control. This controller paves the path to developing stable high-performance operational scenarios for future use in ITER.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coupled geomechanical investigation of depletion-induced fault reactivation

Fault reactivation during subsurface fluid production pose significant challenges to safe and sustainable resource extraction. Here, this study presents a three-dimensional coupled geomechanical framework to investigate the processes driving fault reactivation, capturing the interactions between reservoir dynamics and geomechanical responses. Verification against theoretical estimations based on linear poroelasticity confirms the model's capacity in representing reservoir background stress responses. However, the study reveals that relying solely on background stress states can underestimate or overestimate fault reactivation potential, emphasizing the importance of including localized stress perturbations such as differential compaction and stress redistribution. Applied to a fault (M1) inspired by the geological characteristics of the Groningen field, the model shows slip initiation at 2965 m depth with 16.0 MPa depletion, aligning with field observations where seismicity occurred at approximately 3 km depth after 15.8 MPa depletion. Parametric studies reveal: (1) inelastic reservoir compaction delays fault reactivation and mitigates fault slip by reducing stress concentration, (2) higher intermediate in-situ stress magnitudes decrease the Coulomb Failure Stress (CFS) increase rate and reduce fault slip, (3) larger fault offsets amplify shear stress near the offset zone, promoting earlier reactivation and longer rupture propagation, and (4) fault permeability significantly influences pressure diffusion, with low-permeability faults leading to sharper stress changes and earlier fault destabilization. These insights highlight the critical role of geological and mechanical parameters in fault reactivation and provide a predictive framework for mitigating induced seismicity risks.

Coupled geomechanical modeling↗
DOE OSTI2022

Asymptotic optimality of twist-untwist protocols for Heisenberg scaling in atom-based sensing

Twist-untwist protocols for quantum metrology consist of a serial application of (1) unitary nonlinear dynamics (e.g., spin squeezing or Kerr nonlinearity), (2) parameterized dynamics U ( φ ) (e.g., a collective rotation or phase space displacement), and (3) time reversed application of step 1. Such protocols are known to produce states that allow Heisenberg scaling for experimentally accessible estimators of φ even when the nonlinearities are applied for times much shorter than required to produce Schrödinger cat states. In this work, we prove that, asymptotically in the number of particles, twist-untwist protocols provide the lowest estimation error among quantum metrology protocols that utilize two calls to a weakly nonlinear evolution and a readout involving only first and second moments of a total spin operator n → · J → . We consider the following physical settings: all-to-all interactions generated by one-axis twisting J z 2 (e.g., interacting Bose gases), constant finite range spin-spin interactions of distinguishable or bosonic atoms (e.g., trapped ions or Rydberg atoms, or lattice bosons). In these settings, we further show that the optimal twist-untwist protocols asymptotically achieve 85% and 92% of the respective quantum Cramér-Rao bounds. We show that the error of a twist-untwist protocol can be decreased by a factor of L without an increase in the noise of the spin measurement if the twist-untwist protocol can be noiselessly iterated as an L layer quantum alternating operator ansatz.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Impact of control signal phase noise on qubit fidelity

As qubit decoherence times are increased and readout technologies are improved, nonidealities in the drive signals, such as phase noise, are going to represent a growing limitation to the fidelity achievable at the end of complex control pulse sequencies. Here we study the impact on fidelity of phase noise affecting reference oscillators with the help of numerical simulations, which allow us to directly take into account the interaction between the phase fluctuations in the control signals and the evolution of the qubit state. Our method is based on the generation of phase noise realizations consistent with a given power spectral density, that are then applied to the pulse carrier in simulations, with Qiskit-Dynamics, of the qubit temporal evolution. By comparing the final state obtained at the end of a noisy pulse sequence with that in the ideal case and averaging over multiple noise realizations, we estimate the resulting degradation in fidelity, and exploiting an approximate analytical representation of a carrier affected by phase fluctuations, we discuss the contributions of the different spectral components of phase noise.

Barsotti, Agata [Pisa U.]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of dynamics, entanglement and Markovian noise on the fidelity of few-qubit digital quantum simulation

Quantum algorithms have been proposed to accelerate the simulation of the chaotic dynamical systems that are ubiquitous in the physics of plasmas. Quantum computers without error correction might even use noise to their advantage to calculate the Lyapunov exponent by measuring the Loschmidt echo fidelity decay rate. For the first time, digital Hamiltonian simulations of the quantum sawtooth map, performed on the IBM-Q quantum hardware platform, show that the fidelity decay rate of a digital quantum simulation increases during the transition from dynamical localization to chaotic diffusion in the map. The observed error per CNOT gate increases by $1.5{\times }$ as the dynamics varies from localized to diffusive, while only changing the phases of virtual RZ gates and keeping the overall gate count constant. A gate-based Lindblad noise model that captures the effective change in relaxation and dephasing errors during gate operation qualitatively explains the effect of dynamics on fidelity as being due to the localization and entanglement of the states created. Specifically, highly delocalized states that are entangled with random phases show an increased sensitivity to dephasing and, on average, a similar sensitivity to relaxation as localized states. In contrast, delocalized unentangled states show an increased sensitivity to dephasing but a lower sensitivity to relaxation. This gate-based Lindblad model is shown to be a useful benchmarking tool by estimating the effective Lindblad coherence times during CNOT gates and finding a consistent $2\unicode{x2013}3{\times }$ shorter $T_2$ time than reported for idle qubits. Thus, the interplay of the dynamics of a simulation with the noise processes that are active can strongly influence the overall fidelity decay rate.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Elastic deformation as a tool to investigate watershed storage connectivity

Storage-discharge relationships and dynamic changes in storage connectivity remain key unknowns in understanding and predicting watershed behavior. In this study, we use Global Positioning System measurements of load-induced Earth surface displacement as a proxy for total water storage change in four climatologically diverse mountain watersheds in the western United States. Comparing total water storage estimates with stream-connected storage derived from hydrograph analysis, we find that each of the investigated watersheds exhibits a characteristic seasonal pattern of connection and disconnection between total and stream-connected storage. We investigate how the degree and timing of watershed-scale connectivity is related to the timing of precipitation and seasonal changes in dominant hydrologic processes. Our results show that elastic deformation of the Earth due to water loading is a powerful new tool for elucidating dynamic storage connectivity and watershed discharge response across scales in space and time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2022

IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulation Datasets

Publication For a thorough description of the methods, see the peer-reviewed paper: Jones, A.D., Rastogi, D., Vahmani, P. et al. Continental United States climate projections based on thermodynamic modification of historical weather. Sci Data 10, 664 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02485-5 Overview The IM3 / HyperFACETS climate simulations provide 40-year historical (1980-2019) as well as four 80-year future simulations (2020-2099) over the U.S. The future simulations are split into near (2020-2059) and far future (2060-2099) segments. The future scenarios span a range of plausible changes in future climate (both Global Circulation Model (GCM) and Representative Concentration Pathways/Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (RCP/SSP) dimensions). The simulations provide climate variables with high spatiotemporal resolution (25 hourly variables and 207 3-hourly variables at 12 km2). The datasets are generated using dynamical downscaling with the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model (version 4.2.1) and therefore preserve physical consistency across variables. WRF is a state-of-the-art, fully compressible, non-hydrostatic, mesoscale numerical weather prediction model. WRF is coupled with an urban canopy model (UCM), which resolves urban surfaces. The future scenarios were developed using a thermodynamic global warming approach where past events are replayed under a range of future warming conditions. These scenarios therefore provide a perspective on potential increases in extreme event intensity, geographic scope, and duration, with previously non-extreme conditions potentially crossing new thresholds to be considered extreme by today's standards. This approach is not intended to estimate future changes in extreme event frequency that might result from changes in large-scale atmospheric dynamics. This dataset has NOT been bias corrected. A bias corrected version of selected variables is under development and will be released here when available. Scenarios Files Data for each scenario is provided in weekly NetCDF files. 25 variables are available at hourly resolution, and 207 variables are available at three-hourly resolution. Spatial resolution is 12km and spans the conterminous United States (CONUS), including some areas of Canada and Mexico, resulting in a grid of 424 by 299 cells. The spatial projection is a Lambert Conformal Conic with the following proj-string: "+proj=lcc +lat_0=40.0000076293945 +lon_0=-97 +lat_1=30 +lat_2=45 +x_0=0 +y_0=0 +R=6370000 +units=m +no_defs". The available scenarios and simulation periods are listed below: historical | 1980 - 2019 rcp45cooler | 2020 - 2059 rcp45cooler | 2060 - 2099 rcp45hotter | 2020 - 2059 rcp45hotter | 2060 - 2099 rcp85cooler | 2020 - 2059 rcp85cooler | 2060 - 2099 rcp85hotter | 2020 - 2059 rcp85hotter | 2060 - 2099 * The first year (1979, 2019, and 2059) of data within each scenario represents a model warmup period and should not be used. These are located in the `spinup_files` directory. Historical year 2020 is considered an extra year of data beyond the simulation period and can be found in the `additional_files` directory. For information on specific variables and a more in-depth discussion of methodology, please refer to the data landing page at https://tgw-data.msdlive.org. Delta Warming Files The global and CONUS warming deltas for each scenario are provided in degrees Celsius annually and monthly. Restart Files Yearly restart files are provided for each scenario which can be used to restart the WRF model at a particular point in time. Spinup Files The first year of data within each simulation period represents a model warmup period and should not be used. The files are provided here for the sake of reproducibility. Additional Files Additional years of data are provided as an extension of the historic simulation.

Jones, Andrew D.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Exploring an ‘ideal hill': how lithology and transport mechanisms affect the possibility of a steady state during weathering and erosion

We introduce a model of chemical reaction within hills to explore how evolving porosity (and by inference, permeability) affects flow pathways and weathering. The model consists of hydrologic and reactive-transport equations that describe alteration of ferrous minerals and feldspar. These reactions were chosen because previous work emphasized that oxygen- and acid-driven weathering affects porosity differently in felsic and mafic rocks. A parameter controlling the order of the fronts is presented. In the absence of erosion, the two reaction fronts move at different velocities and the relative depths depend on geochemical conditions and starting composition. In turn, the fronts and associated changes in porosity drastically affect both the vertical and lateral velocities of water flow. For these instances, estimates of weathering advance rates based on simple models that posit unidirectional constant-velocity advection do not apply. In the model hills, weathering advance rates diminish with time as the Darcy velocities decrease with depth. The system can thus attain a dynamical steady state at any erosion rate where the regolith thickness is constant in time and velocities of both fronts become equal to one another and to the erosion rate. The slower the advection velocities in a system, the faster it attains a steady state. For example, a massive rock with relatively fast-dissolving minerals such as diabase -- where solute transport across the reaction front mainly occurs by diffusion -- can reach a steady state more quickly than granitoid rocks in which advection contributes to solute transport. The attainment of a steady state is controlled by coupling between weathering and hydrologic processes that force water to flow horizontally above reaction fronts where permeability changes rapidly with depth and acts as a partial barrier to fluid flow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Error Bounds for Dynamical Spectral Estimation

Dynamical spectral estimation is a well-established numerical approach for estimating eigenvalues and eigenfunctions of the Markov transition operator from trajectory data. Although the approach has been widely applied in biomolecular simulations, its error properties remain poorly understood. Here we analyze the error of a dynamical spectral estimation method called “the variational approach to conformational dynamics" (VAC). We bound the approximation error and estimation error for VAC estimates. Our analysis establishes VAC's convergence properties and suggests new strategies for tuning VAC to improve accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗