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At least 163 records · Page 9

Pyrocumulonimbus Events Over British Columbia in 2017: An Ensemble Model Study of Parameter Sensitivities and Climate Impacts of Wildfire Smoke in the Stratosphere

Abstract The Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) events over British Columbia in 2017 were observed in the lower stratosphere for about 8–10 months after the smoke injections. Several previous studies used global climate models to investigate the physical parameters for the 2017 pyroCb events, but the conclusions show strong model dependency. In this study, we use the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and complete an ensemble of runs exploring three injection parameters: smoke aerosol mass, the percentage of black carbon within the smoke aerosols, and plume injection height. Additionally, we consider the heterogeneous reaction of ozone and primary organic matter. According to the satellite daily observed aerosol optical depth (AOD), we find that the best ensemble member is the simulation with 0.4 Tg of smoke, 3% of which is black carbon, a 13.5 km smoke injection height, and a 10 −5 probability factor of the heterogeneous reaction. Besides AOD, we examine the ensemble score based on the metrics used in previous studies: the metrics of the extinction coefficient at 18 km altitude and the maximum plume height. The conclusion of the best estimate of the injection parameters for 2017 pyroCb events shows strong not only model but also evaluation metric dependency. We use the Random Forest machine learning technique to quantify the relative importance of each parameter in accurately simulating the 2017 pyroCb events and find that the injection height is the most critical feature, no matter which metric is used to score the ensemble members.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Source-encoded waveform inversion in the Northern Hemisphere

SUMMARY We use source-encoded waveform inversion to image Earth’s Northern Hemisphere. The encoding method is based on measurements of Laplace coefficients of stationary wavefields. By assigning to each event a unique frequency, we compute Fréchet derivatives for all events simultaneously based on one ‘super’ forward and one ‘super’ adjoint simulation for a small fraction of the computational cost of classical waveform inversion with the same data set. No cross-talk noise is introduced in the process, and the method does not require all events to be recorded by all stations. Starting from global model GLAD_M25, we performed 100 conjugate gradient iterations using a data set consisting of 786 earthquakes recorded by 9846 stations. Synthetic inversion tests show that we achieve good convergence based on this data set, and we see a consistent misfit reduction during the inversion. The new model, named SE100, has much higher spatial resolution than GLAD_M25, revealing details of the Yellowstone and Iceland hotspots, subduction beneath the Western United States and the upper mantle structure beneath the Arctic Ocean.

Cui, Congyue↗

Energy Evolution from the Chromosphere to the Heliosphere in the 2021 October 28 Solar Eruption

We perform a detailed study of the energetics for a well-observed solar eruption and flare that occurred on 2021 October 28. This event included a GOES class X1.0 flare, a global extreme-UV (EUV) wave, and a coronal mass ejection (CME) that reached speeds of >2000 km s −1 . The event was observed from a variety of spacecraft in NASA’s Heliophysics System Observatory, including multiple missions near Earth, STEREO-A off the Sun-Earth line, and Solar Orbiter, near the Sun-Earth line at about 0.8 au. Using remote sensing, in situ observations, and in some cases scaling laws based on previous observations, we characterize the following quantities: free magnetic energy, energy in nonthermal electrons, energy in nonthermal ions, bolometric energy, energy deposited in the chromosphere, thermal energy radiated in the flare loops, energy dissipated by the EUV wave, CME kinetic and gravitational potential energy, CME energy flux in the heliosphere, and the energy partition in the CME shock. We find that the total energy released during the event is consistent with estimates of the pre-event stored magnetic energy, and the CME kinetic + potential energy dominates the energy partition.

solar coronal mass ejection shocks↗

Probing scalar non-standard interaction of supernova neutrinos in next-generation neutrino experiments

A new neutrino-matter interaction can potentially affect neutrino propagation through matter. In this work, we explore the impact of a flavor-conserving scalar-mediated non-standard neutrino interaction in the supernova neutrino flux. We observe that the presence of a scalar interaction involving muon and tau neutrinos (parameterized as η μμ and η ττ , respectively) can invert the neutrino mass eigenstate in which three neutrino flavor states are produced inside the supernova core, resulting in a significant modification of the electron neutrino flux from the supernova reaching the Earth. In the context of the DUNE experiment, we estimate the number of supernova neutrino events in the presence of scalar non-standard neutrino interaction η μμ or η ττ and contrast with the case without scalar-mediated non-standard interactions. Our results indicate that such scalar interactions introduce a new degeneracy in the measurement of neutrino mass ordering from supernova neutrinos. We show how the ν̅e event distribution in Hyper-Kamiokande experiment may help resolve the degeneracy between a model with new scalar interactions for normal ordered neutrino masses and the standard model with inverted mass ordering for a galactic supernova.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Nuclear Astrophysics through simulations of neutron star mergers using Monte‐Carlo neutrino radiation transport (DE-SC0020435 Final Technical Report)

Neutron star mergers are an important source of information for nuclear physics. Except for black holes, neutron stars are the densest macroscopic objects known to exist in the Universe. They provide us with a remarkable laboratory to study the poorly understood high-density states of matter, complementing the study of heavy nuclei performed by nuclear physics experiments on Earth. Collisions of neutron stars are of particular interest. They are among the most energetic events observable in the Universe, powering a broad range of signals across the electromagnetic spectrum as well as gravitational wave signals. These signals contain important information about the properties of extremely dense matter. Colliding neutron stars additionally eject large amounts of neutron-rich material into the surrounding interstellar medium -- material that then undergoes rapid neutron-capture (r-process) nucleosynthesis, the mechanism thought to be responsible for the production of about half of the heavy nuclei. In order to understand current and future observations of neutron star mergers, we need reliable models for the signals that they power. An important component in the construction of such models are numerical simulations of colliding neutron stars. These simulations are costly, running for multiple months on supercomputers, and require the inclusion of complex physics (general relativity, magnetohydrodynamics, neutrino physics, nuclear reactions). In this document, we describe the development of new methods for the treatment of neutrinos in merger simulations, as well as the first simulations capable of evolving the equations of neutrino radiation transport directly and their impact on our understanding of neutron star mergers and more broadly in nuclear astrophysics. We also discuss additional work performed in the study of nucleosynthesis and neutrino physics in neutron star mergers as part of Early Career Award DE-SC0020435.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

BLADE: An Automated Framework for Classifying Light Curves from the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Fireball Database

Fireballs (bolides) are high-energy luminous phenomena produced when meteoroids and small asteroids enter Earth’s atmosphere at hypersonic speeds, often resulting in fragmentation or complete disintegration accompanied by significant energy release. The resulting bolide light curves capture temporal brightness variations as these objects traverse increasingly dense atmospheric layers, providing essential information on meteoroid entry dynamics, fragmentation behavior, and atmospheric energy deposition processes. The Center for Near-Earth Object Studies’ (CNEOS) continuously expanding fireball database offers a globally comprehensive archive of bolide events, including light curves and associated metadata. Events associated with infrasound detections allow direct correlations between acoustic signatures and light curve features, therefore enabling detailed analyses of fragmentation dynamics and energy deposition. Here, we introduce Bolide Light-curve Analysis and Discrimination Explorer (BLADE), a robust and high-fidelity framework specifically designed to analyze bolide light curves for objects detected from space. BLADE incorporates a processing pipeline integrating Savitzky–Golay filtering, prominence-based peak detection, and gradient analysis, enabling systematic identification and classification of fragmentation events and their associated energy release characteristics. Preliminary results demonstrate that BLADE reliably distinguishes distinct bolide behaviors, providing an objective, scalable methodology for characterization and analysis of large bolide light curve data sets. This foundational work establishes a novel pathway for advanced bolide research, with promising applications in planetary defense and global atmospheric monitoring. Future research should adopt an integrative approach combining CNEOS optical data with complementary infrasound measurements, further clarifying relationships between bolide energy deposition and acoustic signatures, thus refining our understanding of meteoroid and asteroid atmospheric entry processes.

Asteroids↗

A Planetary Defense System For Responsive Space Missions

As King et al succinctly write, “Collision between the Earth and small objects in the solar system are known to occur regularly, and can result in extinction-level events at their most energetic or more commonly widespread loss of life or economic destruction even for relatively low-energy impacts.” Currently, the JPL Sentry System and the NASA NEO Surveyor mission track, identify, and monitor potential asteroid threats. The JPL Sentry System4 is an automated collision monitoring system which scans the current asteroid catalog for potential impact trajectories with Earth. A 2017 study led by P. Tricarico titled “The near-Earth asteroid population from two decades of observations” analyzes the combined observations of nine leading asteroid surveys. The NASA NEO Surveyor mission seeks to identify 90% of near-Earth objects (NEO) with diameters greater than 140 meters (460 feet) within 10 years. The NEO Surveyor combines data from two infrared imaging detectors to measure NEO size, composition, shape, rotational state, and orbits. Recently, the NASA Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission successfully altered the orbit of asteroid moon Dimorphos in 2022. This demonstrated that orbit alteration is possible. Thus, collisions between the Earth and asteroids are both likely and demonstrate potential for great harm. There is ongoing work to identify, catalog, and track potential threats. However, when a threat is identified there is not yet a system in place to target the threatening asteroid and defend the planet from potentially existential threats. Building on the DART Mission, we explore a planetary defense system to mitigate asteroid threats.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Radiation-Induced Dark Counts for Silicon Single-Photon Detectors in Space

Single-photon detectors operating on satellites for use in a quantum communications network can incur large dark-count-rate increases from the natural radiation environment of space. Displacement damage to the material lattice of a detector from the ionizing radiation can result in a permanent dark-count increase in the detector. In this work, we analyze the radiation-induced dark-count rate of a silicon single-photon avalanche diode onboard a satellite at different orbiting altitudes, as well as, the additional radiation from a nuclear-disturbed environment caused by a high-altitude nuclear explosion. For detectors on low Earth orbit satellites, protons are the biggest source of radiation damage and are best mitigated by choosing an orbit that minimizes exposure when passing through the South Atlantic Anomaly and Polar Cusps. Detectors on medium Earth orbit and geostationary orbit satellites, if shielded by more than 10 mm of aluminum, provide the best platform in terms of the least amount of radiation damage to the detectors. In the event of a high-altitude nuclear explosion, the artificial radiation belts produced by the explosion will cause too much damage to silicon single-photon detectors on low Earth orbit satellites and render them unfit for quantum communications in less than a day. Higher orbit satellites will only suffer minor dark-count-rate increases from the artificial radiation belts.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Intensified Soil Moisture Extremes Decrease Soil Organic Carbon Decomposition: A Mechanistic Modeling Analysis

Earth system models have predicted that there will be more frequent and severe precipitation and drought events in terrestrial ecosystems. Microbially mediated decomposition of soil organic carbon (SOC) tends to increase as soils wet and decrease as soils dry. However, the long-term SOC change under intensified moisture extremes remains poorly known as it depends on the frequency and intensity of soil drying and wetting. In this study, we explored long-term SOC dynamics under scenarios of alternating drying-wetting cycles using the Microbial-ENzyme Decomposition model, a mechanistic microbial model. The model was parameterized with 11 years of observations from a temperate deciduous broadleaf forest site, showing satisfactory model performance in both model calibration (R 2 = 0.67) and validation (R 2 = 0.69) against heterotrophic respiration. We then used the model to simulate the long-term SOC dynamics under five scenarios of alternating drying-wetting cycles with different frequencies and severities over a period of 100 years. Results showed that the changes in active microbial biomass C and the corresponding turnover rates of SOC pools were more sensitive to soil drying than soil wetting. As a result, the cumulative soil carbon emission from microbial respiration decreased by 433.7 g C m -2 after the 100-year simulation in the highest frequency and intensity moisture scenario, but was not significantly affected by the lowest frequency and intensity scenario. This study emphasizes the nonlinear response of SOC decomposition to soil moisture changes, which causes decreased decomposition by microbes under drying that is, not compensated by increased decomposition under wetting conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A history of mild shocks experienced by the regolith particles on hydrated asteroid Ryugu

Micrometeorites, a possible major source of Earth’s water, are thought to form from explosive dispersal of hydrated chondritic materials during impact events on their parental asteroids. However, this provenance and formation mechanism have yet to be directly confirmed using asteroid returned samples. Here, we report evidence of mild shock metamorphism in the surface particles of asteroid Ryugu based on electron microscopy. All particles are dominated by phyllosilicates but lack dehydration textures, which are indicative of shock-heating temperatures below ~500°C. Microfault-like textures associated with extensively shock-deformed framboidal magnetites and a high-pressure polymorph of Fe–Cr–sulfide have been identified. These findings indicate that the average peak pressure was ~2 GPa. The vast majority of ejecta formed during impact on Ryugu-like asteroids would be hydrated materials, larger than a millimetre, originating far from the impact point. These characteristics are inconsistent with current micrometeorite production models, and consequently, a new formation mechanism is required.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Pushing the frontiers in climate modelling and analysis with machine learning

Climate modelling and analysis are facing new demands to enhance projections and climate information. Here, in this study, we argue that now is the time to push the frontiers of machine learning beyond state-of-the-art approaches, not only by developing machine-learning-based Earth system models with greater fidelity, but also by providing new capabilities through emulators for extreme event projections with large ensembles, enhanced detection and attribution methods for extreme events, and advanced climate model analysis and benchmarking. Utilizing this potential requires key machine learning challenges to be addressed, in particular generalization, uncertainty quantification, explainable artificial intelligence and causality. This interdisciplinary effort requires bringing together machine learning and climate scientists, while also leveraging the private sector, to accelerate progress towards actionable climate science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Skipper CCDs for the search of a daily modulation of Dark Matter signal in the DMSQUARE experiment

The Dark Matter Daily Modulation experiment (DMSQUARE) seeks for dark matter interactions with a Skipper CCD. It is currently running at surface level in Bariloche, Argentina, and will be moved to a shallow underground site at Sierra Grande, Argentina in November 2021. The low threshold achieved by Skipper CCDs allows to search for electron recoil events with an ionization energy down to 1.2 eV. In order to extract a potential dark matter signal from noise at the single electron level, we propose to search for a diurnal modulation of events, resulting from the potential interaction of the dark matter wind with the particles in the Earth. Depending on the model, mass and cross-section, this modulation can be maximum at 40deg of latitude in the Southern Hemisphere, where DMSQUARE is operated. In this article we present the experiment, report preliminary results with a prototype Skipper CCD taking data at surface level and comment on future prospects.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Characteristics of Wetting-Induced Bacteriophage Blooms in Biological Soil Crust

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are photosynthetic “hot spots” in deserts and cover ~12% of the Earth’s terrestrial surface, and yet they face an uncertain future given expected shifts in rainfall events. Laboratory wetting of biocrust communities is known to cause a bloom of Firmicutes which rapidly become dominant community members within 2 days after emerging from a sporulated state. We hypothesized that their bacteriophages (phages) would respond to such a dramatic increase in their host’s abundance. In our experiment, wetting caused Firmicutes to bloom and triggered a significant depletion of cyanobacterial diversity. We used genome-resolved metagenomics to link phage to their hosts and found that the bloom of the genus Bacillus correlated with a dramatic increase in the number of Caudovirales phages targeting these diverse spore-formers ( r = 0.762). After 2 days, we observed dramatic reductions in the relative abundances of Bacillus , while the number of Bacillus phages continued to increase, suggestive of a predator-prey relationship. We found predicted auxiliary metabolic genes (AMGs) associated with sporulation in several Caudovirales genomes, suggesting that phages may influence and even benefit from sporulation dynamics in biocrusts. Prophage elements and CRISPR-Cas repeats in Firmicutes metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) provide evidence of recent infection events by phages, which were corroborated by mapping viral contigs to their host MAGs. Combined, these findings suggest that the blooming Firmicutes become primary targets for biocrust Caudovirales phages, consistent with the classical “kill-the-winner” hypothesis. This work forms part of an overarching research theme studying the effects of a changing climate on biological soil crust (biocrust) in the Southwestern United States. To our knowledge, this study was the first to characterize bacteriophages in biocrust and offers a view into the ecology of phages in response to a laboratory wetting experiment. The phages identified here represent lineages of Caudovirales , and we found that the dynamics of their interactions with their Firmicutes hosts explain the collapse of a bacterial bloom that was induced by wetting. Moreover, we show that phages carried host-altering metabolic genes and found evidence of proviral infection and CRISPR-Cas repeats within host genomes. Our results suggest that phages exert controls on population density by lysing dominant bacterial hosts and that they further impact biocrust by acquiring host genes for sporulation. Future research should explore how dominant these phages are in other biocrust communities and quantify how much the control and lysis of blooming populations contributes to nutrient cycling in biocrusts.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of Multi-Fidelity Soil Moisture Products Across the Continental United States

We have aggregated the most recent soil moisture datasets from a diverse range of sources, encompassing the Continental United States (CONUS). These sources encompass gridded data from remote sensing products, reanalysis products, machine learning-based projects, and land surface modeling products. Additionally, we have obtained and processed in-situ soil moisture observations from the International Soil Moisture Network. The collected datasets exhibit variations in both temporal and spatial resolutions. Among the 20 datasets, six are available at a spatial resolution of 0.25 degrees, while three are at a coarser spatial resolution of 25 km. To minimize spatial interpolation, we conducted data uncertainty evaluations at the 0.25-degree spatial resolution. For our data evaluations, we maintained a monthly temporal resolution, which effectively captures soil moisture seasonality and interannual variability. Our data processing strategy preserves the raw data and interpolated data at their original temporal resolutions. Datasets with higher temporal resolutions, including daily, three-hourly, and hourly datasets, are set aside for subsequent analyses. These analyses will delve into topics such as soil moisture changes and recovery during extreme weather events. Furthermore, we have processed auxiliary data to enhance our evaluation, leveraging tools such as Google Earth Engine. This includes incorporating topography data, land use land cover data, Köppen-Geiger climate classification, and more to provide a comprehensive assessment from multiple sources.

Li, Lingcheng↗

Atmospheric-river-induced precipitation in California as simulated by the regionally refined Simple Convective Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) Version 0

Abstract. Using the regionally refined mesh (RRM) configuration of the US Department of Energy's Simple Cloud-Resolving Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model (SCREAM), we simulate and evaluate four meteorologically distinct atmospheric river events over California. We test five different RRM configurations, each differing in terms of the areal extent of the refined mesh and the resolution (ranging from 800 m to 3.25 km). We find that SCREAM RRM generally has a good representation of the AR-generated precipitation in CA, even for the control simulation which has a very small 3 km refined patch, and is able to capture the fine-scale regional distributions that are controlled largely by the fine-scale topography of the state. It is found that SCREAM generally has a wet bias over topography, most prominently over the Sierra Nevada mountain range, with a corresponding dry bias on the lee side. We find that refining the resolution beyond 3 km (specifically 1.6 km and 800 m) has virtually no benefit towards reducing systematic precipitation biases but that improvements can be found when increasing the areal extent of the upstream refined mesh. However, these improvements are relatively modest and only realized if the size of the refined mesh is expanded to the scale where employing RRM no longer achieves the substantial cost benefit it was intended for.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Causes and evolution of winter polynyas north of Greenland

During the 42-year period (1979–2020) of satellite measurements, four major winter (December–March) polynyas have been observed north of Greenland: one in December 1986 and three in the last decade, i.e., February of 2011, 2017, and 2018. The 2018 polynya was unparalleled in its magnitude and duration compared to the three previous events. Given the apparent recent increase in the occurrence of these extreme events, this study aims to examine their evolution and causality, in terms of forced versus natural variability. The limited weather station and remotely sensed sea ice data are analyzed combining with output from the fully coupled Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), including one hindcast and two ensemble simulations. We found that neither the accompanying anomalous warm surface air intrusion nor the ocean below had an impact (i.e., no significant ice melting) on the evolution of the observed winter open-water episodes in the region. Instead, the extreme atmospheric wind forcing resulted in greater sea ice deformation and transport offshore, accounting for the majority of sea ice loss in all four polynyas. Our analysis suggests that strong southerly winds (i.e., northward wind with speeds greater than 10 m s –1 ) blowing persistently over the study region for at least 2 d or more were required over the study region to mechanically redistribute some of the thickest Arctic sea ice out of the region and thus to create open-water areas (i.e., a latent heat polynya). To assess the role of internal variability versus external forcing of such events, we carried out and examined results from the two RASM ensembles dynamically downscaled with output from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (DPLE) simulations. Out of 100 winters in each of the two ensembles (initialized 30 years apart: one in December 1985 and another in December 2015), 17 and 16 winter polynyas were produced north of Greenland, respectively. The frequency of polynya occurrence had no apparent sensitivity to the initial sea ice thickness in the study area pointing to internal variability of atmospheric forcing as a dominant cause of winter polynyas north of Greenland. We assert that dynamical downscaling using a high-resolution regional climate model offers a robust tool for process-level examination in space and time, synthesis with limited observations, and probabilistic forecasts of Arctic events, such as the ones being investigated here and elsewhere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Performance Analysis of Speculative Parallel Adaptive Local Timestepping for Conservation Laws

Stable simulation of conservation laws, such as those used to model fluid dynamics and plasma physics applications, requires the satisfaction of the so-called Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy condition. By allowing regions of the mesh to advance with different timesteps that locally satisfy this stability constraint, significant work reduction can be attained when compared to a time integration scheme using a single timestep size. However, parallelizing this algorithm presents considerable difficulty. Since the stability condition depends on the state of the system, dependencies become dynamic and potentially non-local. In this article, we present an adaptive local timestepping algorithm using an optimistic (Timewarp-based) parallel discrete event simulation. We introduce waiting heuristics to limit misspeculation and a semi-static load balancing scheme to eliminate load imbalance as parts of the mesh require finer or coarser timesteps. Last, we outline an interface for separating the physics of the specific conservation law from the temporal integration allowing for productive adoption of our proposed algorithm. We present a misspeculation study for three conservation laws, demonstrating both the productivity of the local timestepping API, for which 74% of the lines of code are reused across different conservation laws, and the robustness of the waiting heuristics—at most 1.5% of element updates are rolled back. Our performance studies demonstrate up to a 2.8× speedup versus a baseline unoptimized local timestepping approach, a 4x improvement in per-node throughput compared to an MPI parallelization of synchronous timestepping, and scalability up to 3,072 cores on NERSC’s Cori Haswell partition.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Global Prompt Proton Sensor Network: Monitoring Solar Energetic Protons Based on GPS Satellite Constellation

Energetic particle instruments on board Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites form a powerful global prompt proton sensor network (GPPSn) that provides an unprecedented opportunity to monitor and characterize solar energetic protons targeting the Earth. The medium-Earth orbits of the GPS constellation have the unique advantage of allowing solar energetic protons to be simultaneously measured from multiple points in both open- and closed-field line regions. Examining two example intervals of solar proton events, we showcase in this study how GPS proton data are prepared, calibrated, and utilized to reveal important features of solar protons, including their source, acceleration/scattering by interplanetary shocks, the relative position of Earth when impinged by these shocks, the shape of solar particle fronts, the access of solar protons inside the dynamic geomagnetic field, and temporally varying proton distributions in both energy and space. By comparing to Van Allen Probes data, GPS proton observations are further demonstrated not only to be useful for qualitatively monitoring the dynamics of solar protons but also for quantitative scientific research including determining cutoff L-shells. Finally, our results establish that this GPPSn can join forces with other existing solar proton monitors and contribute to observing, warning, understanding, and ultimately forecasting the incoming solar energetic proton events.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗