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At least 163 records · Page 9

Better practices for inferring ecosystem water use strategy from eddy covariance data

Eddy covariance data are critical for inferring ecosystem water use strategies. Yet, such inferences are sensitive to a range of assumptions applied across studies, hindering our understanding of water use strategies within and across eddy covariance sites. A recent analysis across 151 FLUXNET2015 and AmeriFlux-FLUXNET datasets found that poor model performance was the key driver of non-robust inferences of ecosystem water use strategies. Here, we leverage this previous analysis to (i) identify the specific assumptions that improve inference model performance across most sites, (ii) explain the mechanisms behind the performance improvements, and (iii) check whether better performance improves water use inference. We find that the common practice of fitting a model to canopy conductance (G c ) derived from the evapotranspiration (ET) observations, rather than to observed ET itself, artificially amplifies data errors and degrades the model performance. Next, accounting for vegetation dynamics by applying a growing season filter or incorporating satellite LAI data improves performance, but the former practice may remove soil water stress periods. Lastly, using the leaf-to-air vapor pressure deficit (VPD l ) derived from ET observations as a model input may artificially inflate performance. Based on these results, we recommend selecting observed ET (rather than derived G c ) as the response variable, carefully accounting for vegetation dynamics, and avoiding derived VPD l as a model input; these best practices improve model performance by c. 20% and robustness by c. 80% across all eddy covariance sites. Nevertheless, the performance improvements do not always correspond to more robust inference of water use strategies, as model parameter selection and surface energy budget closure corrections still strongly influence the ecosystem water use parameter estimation in a site-specific manner.

AmeriFlux↗

Unified Entrainment and Detrainment Closures for Extended Eddy-Diffusivity Mass-Flux Schemes

The extended Eddy Diffusivity Mass Flux (EDMF) scheme is used as a unied parameterization that simulates subgrid-scale dynamics across a range of regimes.This work presents unied entrainment and detrainment closures that allow this scheme to simulate the dry convective boundary layer, shallow convection and deep convection , while adjacent works present other necessary closures for this unied scheme and test its performance for stable, stratocumulus topped and convective boundary layers. Entrainment and detrainment are modeled as a combination of turbulent and dynamical processes. The turbulent component is taken as downgradient diffusion between subdomains. The dynamical component is based on a ratio of buoyancy and vertical velocity that ensures consistent treatment of the ratio of mass-flux at vanishing area fraction. Dynamical detrainment is controlled by the difference in relative humidity between subdomains when liquid water is present. These closures are rst evaluated with entrainment and detrainment diagnosed from Large Eddy Simulations where decaying tracers are used to identify the different subdomains and mass exchanges between them. When implemented in a single column model (SCM), these closures are tested in simulations of several observationally motivated cases of dry convective boundary layer, shallow convection and deep convection. Results show good agreement between the SCM and Large Eddy Simulations in key properties for climate models and profiles of first, second and third moments. The development of diurnal cycles and the onset of and precipitation (with simplified microphysics) are well predicted by the SCM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Upscaling Wetland Methane Emissions From the FLUXNET–CH4 Eddy Covariance Network (UpCH4 v1.0): Model Development, Network Assessment, and Budget Comparison

Wetlands are responsible for 20%–31% of global methane (CH 4 ) emissions and account for a large source of uncertainty in the global CH 4 budget. Data-driven upscaling of CH 4 fluxes from eddy covariance measurements can provide new and independent bottom-up estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions. Here, we develop a six-predictor random forest upscaling model (UpCH4), trained on 119 site-years of eddy covariance CH 4 flux data from 43 freshwater wetland sites in the FLUXNET-CH4 Community Product. Network patterns in site-level annual means and mean seasonal cycles of CH 4 fluxes were reproduced accurately in tundra, boreal, and temperate regions (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency ~0.52–0.63 and 0.53). UpCH4 estimated annual global wetland CH 4 emissions of 146 ± 43 TgCH 4 y –1 for 2001–2018 which agrees closely with current bottom-up land surface models (102–181 TgCH 4 y –1 ) and overlaps with top-down atmospheric inversion models (155–200 TgCH 4 y –1 ). However, UpCH4 diverged from both types of models in the spatial pattern and seasonal dynamics of tropical wetland emissions. We conclude that upscaling of eddy covariance CH 4 fluxes has the potential to produce realistic extra-tropical wetland CH 4 emissions estimates which will improve with more flux data. To reduce uncertainty in upscaled estimates, researchers could prioritize new wetland flux sites along humid-to-arid tropical climate gradients, from major rainforest basins (Congo, Amazon, and SE Asia), into monsoon (Bangladesh and India) and savannah regions (African Sahel) and be paired with improved knowledge of wetland extent seasonal dynamics in these regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhanced Cross-Shelf Exchange by the Eddies Associated With Plume Front

Broadened width of high chlorophyll concentration band with wavy structures, patches, and filaments are often observed along the western coastal next to the Pearl River Estuary over the northern South China Sea shelf during the transition period from winter to summer monsoon. Whereas, there is no such wide band in other seasons. By using a high-resolution numerical model, we reveal that the complex structure and wider band of high coastal chlorophyll concentration results from the smaller scale eddies (about 20–50 km in diameter) associated with buoyant plume-induced salinity front and density fronts, which are roughly along the 30 and 50 m isobaths, respectively. Two trains of eddies are formed along the fronts by the baroclinic instability triggered by frequently alternating winds over the fronts during the period of monsoon transition. The influences of these two trains of eddies are extended in the cross-shelf direction by their interactions, and they can temporally enhance the cross-shelf flow and material exchange. In conclusion, they serve as an efficient pathway to link the inner shelf toward the continental slope.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simultaneous determination of electrical conductivity and thickness of nonmagnetic metallic foils using two-sided multifrequency eddy current techniques

Here, in this paper, we describe a simple method for performing multifrequency eddy current characterization of free-standing uniform-thickness metallic foils using a forked inductive coil arrangement. The method involves measuring the mutual inductance between two coils when a foil is present between the coils, and when it is not present; the ratio of these mutual inductances is compared with an analytical solution, and foil conductivity, thickness, and sheet resistance are simultaneously estimated using numerical inversion and least-squares fitting. This method was used to characterize 34 non-ferrous metallic samples with thicknesses between 50 and 640 μm and with conductivities between 0.8 × 10 7 and 5.8 × 10 7 S/m. The estimated thicknesses from eddy current characterization agreed well with those measured using confocal optical techniques; the two approaches agreed to within 1 μm for samples that were thinner than 200 μm, and to within 0.5% for samples that had a thickness of 200 μm or greater. The estimated conductivities from eddy current characterization were in close agreement with expected values, given knowledge of the materials used. A particular strength of this approach is that the instrumentation needed is broadly available in research and development laboratories and the associated fixturing is easy to manufacture and assemble. A calibration procedure is described that can be used to reduce errors from geometric uncertainties. This calibration requires a sample that has only a known conductivity or thickness; both do not need to be known. The method described herein is likely extensible to conductivities and thickness well outside the ranges measured as part of this work.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Systematic analysis of magnetic equilibrium reconstruction with eddy currents on LTX- β

Magnetic equilibrium reconstruction in the Lithium Tokamak Experiment-Beta (LTX-β) is complicated by strong eddy currents and toroidal asymmetries arising from its segmented, close-fitting conducting shell. In the earlier experiment LTX, these three-dimensional (3D) conductor effects significantly distorted diagnostic signals and challenged conventional axisymmetric reconstruction methods. In this work, we demonstrate that accurate plasma equilibria can be recovered on LTX-β by incorporating a small number of dominant eddy current modes derived from realistic conductor models. Using the open-source $\tt{TokaMaker}$ Grad–Shafranov solver, we reconstruct equilibria across a systematically selected set of LTX-β discharges and validate them against the legacy $\tt{PSI-Tri}$ hybrid 2D-3D code. Our results show that fully 2D $\tt{TokaMaker}$ reconstructions achieve significantly improved agreement with flux loop and Mirnov probe measurements, reducing total chi-squared fitting errors, especially during startup. Finally, we develop new hybrid 2D-3D $\tt{TokaMaker}$ reconstructions by integrating the $\tt{ThinCurr}$ 3D eddy current model, which we optimize for significant further reduction of chi-squared in most scenarios. These findings underscore the importance of realistic wall-current modeling in short-pulse tokamaks, and establish a physics-based reconstruction framework that is extensible to devices with complex passive structures and 3D wall interactions.

Grad–Shafranov solver↗

Combined Effect of the Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen Mechanism and Large Eddies on Microphysics of Mixed-Phase Stratiform Clouds

Abstract The process of glaciation in mixed-phase stratiform clouds was investigated by a novel Lagrangian–Eulerian model (LEM) in which thousands of adjoining Lagrangian parcels moved within a turbulent-like velocity field with statistical parameters typical of the Arctic boundary layer. We used detailed bin microphysics to describe the condensation/evaporation processes in each parcel, in which droplets, aerosols, and ice particles were described using size distributions of 500 mass bins. The model also calculated aerosol mass inside droplets and ice particles. Gravitational sedimentation of droplets and ice particles was also accounted for. Assuming that droplet freezing is the primary source of ice particles, the Arctic clouds observed in Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC) were successfully simulated. The model showed that at a low ice particle concentration typical of ISDAC, large vortices (eddies) led to a quasi-stationary regime, in which mixed-phase St existed for a long time. The large eddies controlled the water partitioning in the mixed-phase clouds. Droplets formed and grew in updrafts, typically reaching the cloud top, and evaporated in downdrafts. Ice particles grew in updrafts and downdrafts. The Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen (WBF) mechanism was efficient in downdrafts and some parts of updrafts, depending on ice concentration and vertical velocity. At low ice concentrations, the effect of ice on the phase partitioning was negligible. In this regime, liquid droplets were found near the cloud top, whereas ice particles precipitated through the cloud base. When ice concentration exceeded about 10 L −1 , the WBF mechanism led to glaciation of almost the entire cloud, with the exception of narrow cloud regions associated with strong updrafts. At ice particle concentrations of a few tens per liter, the oscillatory regime took place due to the ice–liquid interaction. The microphysical structure of mixed-phase St forms as a combined effect of cloud dynamics (large eddies) and the WBF mechanism.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Dual Nature of Entrainment-Mixing Signatures Revealed through Large-Eddy Simulations of a Convection-Cloud Chamber

Abstract Entrainment of subsaturated air into a cloud can influence its optical and microphysical properties in various ways, depending on the droplet evaporation and turbulent mixing time scales. Previous experiments in the Pi convection-cloud chamber have revealed that, given a fixed entrained air property, the mixing of entrained subsaturated air results in complete evaporation of some cloud droplets, with the rest remaining unchanged. This is a signature of inhomogeneous mixing. While comparing the results of entrainment with varying air properties, the mixing signature appears as if the subsaturated air is well mixed with the cloud to evenly reduce the droplets’ size. In other words, taken together, the experiments appear to have the signature of homogeneous mixing. To explore these results in a greater depth, we conduct large-eddy simulations combined with a bin microphysics scheme. Our results reproduce the similar signatures of inhomogeneous and homogeneous mixing, implying that LES can resolve the inhomogeneous mixing when the grid spacing is smaller than the entrained air parcel. Additionally, we observe that increasing the aerosol injection rate enhances the signature of inhomogeneous mixing, while coarser grid spacing diminishes it. Finally, the change in wall fluxes in response to various entrained air properties confirms that the homogeneous signature seen in the analysis of an ensemble of simulations is the result of various equilibrium states. This further strengthens the suggestion that the homogeneous mixing signature found in aircraft observations near the cloud top may result from combining entrainment events of different intensities, possibly caused by various-sized eddies. Significance Statement Large-eddy simulation and size-resolved microphysics can resolve time scales for turbulent mixing and evaporation and, therefore, are well suited for reproducing, extending, and interpreting the entrainment experiment in the Pi convection-cloud chamber. Our simulation results confirm (i) the inhomogeneous mixing signature for an individual entrainment event and (ii) the appearance of homogeneous mixing in an ensemble of entrainment episodes. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the inhomogeneous mixing signature is more pronounced in a polluted cloud, but coarser grid spacing in simulations may compromise the accuracy of this signature. Last, the homogeneous mixing signature results from various equilibrium states established for different entrainment intensities and adjusted wall fluxes, which are challenging to measure experimentally but can be easily analyzed in the simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The dependence of the oceans MOC on mesoscale eddy diffusivities: A model study

The dependence of the depth and strength of the ocean's global meridional overturning cells (MOC) on the specification of mesoscale eddy diffusivity (K) is explored in two ocean models. The GISS and MIT ocean models are driven by the same prescribed forcing fields, configured in similar ways, spun up to equilibrium for a range of K 's and the resulting MOCs mapped and documented. Scaling laws implicit in modern theories of the MOC are used to rationalize the results. In all calculations the K used in the computation of eddy-induced circulation and that used in the representation of eddy stirring along neutral surfaces, is set to the same value but is changed across experiments. We are able to connect changes in the strength and depth of the Atlantic MOC, the southern ocean upwelling MOC, and the deep cell emanating from Antarctica, to changes in K.

Global ocean↗

Evaluation of Inflow Turbulence Methods in Large-Eddy Simulations of a Supersonic Boundary Layer

In the context of Large- Eddy Simulations (LES), Boundary-layer inflow turbulence is simulated using both the Synthetic Eddy Model (SEM) and Digital Filtering (DF). The effects of the projection error are investigated. The effect of the prescribed length scales on the adjustment region was found to be negligible for length scales less than one-tenth of the boundary-layer thickness. While it was conjectured that one method of the two might be more robust than the other, our results show that both the Digital Filtering Method and the Synthetic Eddy Method accurately replicate the boundary layer while successfully accounting for inflow turbulence.

Synthetic Eddy↗

Eddy Compensation Dampens Southern Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Response to Westerly Wind Trends

Anthropogenic influences have led to a strengthening and poleward shift of westerly winds over the Southern Ocean (SO), especially during austral summer. We use observations, an idealized eddy‐resolving ocean‐sea ice channel model, and a global coupled model to explore the SO response to a step‐change in westerly winds. Previous work hypothesized a two timescale response for sea surface temperature. Initially, Ekman transport cools the surface before sustained upwelling causes warming on decadal timescales. The fast response is robust across our models and the observations: we find Ekman‐driven cooling in the mixed layer, mixing‐driven warming below the mixed layer, and a small upwelling‐driven warming at the temperature inversion. The long‐term response is inaccessible from observations. Neither of our models shows a persistent upwelling anomaly, or long‐term, upwelling‐driven subsurface warming. Mesoscale eddies act to oppose the anomalous wind‐driven upwelling, through a process known as eddy compensation, thereby preventing long‐term warming.

Southern Annular Mode↗

Source Decomposition of Eddy-Covariance CO 2 Flux Measurements for Evaluating a High-Resolution Urban CO 2 Emissions Inventory

We present the comparison of source-partitioned CO2 flux measurements with a high-resolution urban CO 2 emissions inventory (Hestia). Tower-based measurements of CO and 14 C are used to partition net CO 2 flux measurements into fossil and biogenic components. A flux footprint model is used to quantify spatial variation in flux measurements. We compare the daily cycle and spatial structure of Hestia and eddy-covariance derived fossil fuel CO 2 emissions on a seasonal basis. Hestia inventory emissions exceed the eddy-covariance measured emissions by 0.36 µ mol m −2 s −1 (3.2%) in the cold season and 0.62 µ mol m −2 s −1 (9.1%) in the warm season. The daily cycle of fluxes in both products matches closely, with correlations in the hourly mean fluxes of 0.86 (cold season) and 0.93 (warm season). The spatially averaged fluxes also agree in each season and a persistent spatial pattern in the differences during both seasons that may suggest a bias related to residential heating emissions. In addition, in the cold season, the magnitudes of average daytime biological uptake and nighttime respiration at this flux site are approximately 15% and 27% of the mean fossil fuel CO 2 emissions over the same time period, contradicting common assumptions of no significant biological CO 2 exchange in northern cities during winter. This work demonstrates the effectiveness of using trace gas ratios to adapt eddy-covariance flux measurements in urban environments for disaggregating anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and urban ecosystem fluxes at high spatial and temporal resolution.

eddy-covariance flux measurements↗

Considerations for Qualifying Reliable Eddy Current Array Technique for Detection of Backwall Cracks

A reliable nondestructive evaluation (NDE) technique provides minimum 90% probability of detection(POD) with 95% confidence for detection of cracklike flaws of a qualified size. In this case, the flaws are on backside of material. Eddy current array (ECA) probe or a single sensor eddy current probe in c-scanning mode is used for the flaw detection. Here, two geometries are considered for the test specimens. The two geometries are, a flat plate, and tube or pipe. The probe is assumed to be on outer diameter (OD)surface and the flaw is assumed to be at the inner diameter (ID) surface for tube inspection. The flaw and probe are on opposite side of wall thickness for inspection of plate material. The application may be used for acreage inspection or just for inspection of butt weld and heat affected zone (HAZ) in a tube, cylinder, or plate. The proposed approach is based on developing an instrument standardization or calibration procedure. Decision threshold of inspection procedure is determined using empirical qualification and noise data. The work explores essential parameters that are required to meet certain conditions to ensure reliable flaw detection. Physics-based simulation of eddy current array flaw detection is used to understand effect of essential parameters on signal response (amplitude and phase),and therefore flaw detectability. Simulation data is used to justify choice of calibration reference standard requirements and the qualification approach. An ECA technique qualification model is provided. The paper gives brief description of tasks to be completed for qualifying ECA technique for reliable detection of cracklike flaws.

Eddy current array inspection, nondestructive eval↗

Modulation induced by very-large-scale motions on the inclination angle of wall-attached eddies: an atmospheric surface layer experiment

The forward leaning inclination angle, 𝛾, of coherent turbulent structures is a well-known feature of wall-bounded turbulent flows. Although invariant across friction Reynolds numbers within the range 𝑅𝑒 𝜏 =10 3 −10 6 , 𝛾 can vary significantly across turbulent scales within a high-Reynolds-number flow. Very-large-scale motions (VLSMs) are known to induce significant changes in the instantaneous shear profile, which is a conditioning event that could trigger variability in the inclination angle of smaller coherent turbulent structures. Although this aspect has been extensively studied via numerical and laboratory experiments, few studies have explored this feature for a very-high-Reynolds-number atmospheric flow. In this work, the inclination angle of turbulent structures within the atmospheric surface layer at a very high Reynolds number (𝑅𝑒 𝜏 =7.9 ×10 5 ) is investigated by deploying a scanning Doppler light detection and ranging and a super large particle image velocimetry (SLPIV) apparatus. The inclination angle of wall-attached eddies is inferred either from the two-point correlation of streamwise velocity (𝛾 =41.1∘) or with a scale-dependent approach through the spectral linear stochastic estimator (SLSE). The SLSE (and, thus, the scale-dependent inclination angle) is conditionally evaluated based on the high- and low-momentum events induced by VLSMs, both in the streamwise (𝑢′𝑉𝐿𝑆𝑀) and in the vertical (𝑤′ 𝑉𝐿𝑆𝑀) velocity components. As a result, lower inclination angles (𝛾 =30° −50°) are found for 𝑢$^{'}_{VLSM}$ >0 (𝑤$^{'}_{VLSM}$ <0), while higher values (50° −85°) are ascribed to 𝑢$^{'}_{VLSM}$ <0 (𝑤$^{'}_{VLSM}$ >0). This result emphasises the primary role that VLSMs play in shaping the wall-attached eddy geometry, which, in turn, is crucial to determine the Reynolds stress balance within the wall-attached eddy range.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A New Post‐Hoc Method to Reduce the Energy Imbalance in Eddy Covariance Measurements

Abstract Latent and sensible heat flux observations are essential for understanding land–atmosphere interactions. Measurements from the eddy covariance technique are widely used but suffer from systematic energy imbalance problems, partly due to missing large eddies from sub‐mesoscale transport. Because available energy drives the development of large eddies, we propose an available energy based correction method for turbulent flux measurements. We apply our method to 172 flux tower sites and show that we can reduce the energy imbalance from −14.99 to −0.65 W m −2 on average, together with improved consistency between turbulent fluxes and available energy and associated increases inr 2 at individual sites and across networks. Our results suggest that our method is conceptually and empirically preferable over the method implemented in the ONEFlux processing. This can contribute to the efforts in understanding and addressing the energy imbalance issue, which is crucial for the evaluation and calibration of land surface models.

Geology↗

Forward sensitivity approach for estimating eddy viscosity closures in nonlinear model reduction

In this paper, we propose a variational approach to estimate eddy viscosity using forward sensitivity method (FSM) for closure modeling in nonlinear reduced order models. FSM is a data assimilation technique that blends model's predictions with noisy observations to correct initial state and/or model parameters. We apply this approach on a projection based reduced order model (ROM) of the one-dimensional viscous Burgers equation with a square wave defining a moving shock, and the two-dimensional vorticity transport equation formulating a decay of Kraichnan turbulence. We investigate the capability of the approach to approximate an optimal value for eddy viscosity with different measurement configurations. Specifically, we show that our approach can sufficiently assimilate information either through full field or sparse noisy measurements to estimate eddy viscosity closure to cure standard Galerkin reduced order model (GROM) predictions. Therefore, our approach provides a modular framework to correct forecasting error from a sparse observational network on a latent space. We highlight that the proposed GROM-FSM framework is promising for emerging digital twin applications, where real-time sensor measurements can be used to update and optimize surrogate model's parameters.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Code for the manuscript "Lagrangian Large Eddy Simulations vis Physics-informed Machine Learning"

We would like to disclose a code based on Python/Pytorch, in which we implement the data-driven physics-informed machine learning of Lagrangian large eddy simulation that is described in the manuscript "Lagrangian Large Eddy Simulations via Physics-Informed Machine Learning ". High-Reynolds number Homogeneous Isotropic Turbulence is fully described within the Navier-Stokes (NS) equations, which are notoriously difficult to solve numerically. Engineers, interested primarily in describing turbulence at a reduced range of resolved scales, have designed heuristics, known as Large Eddy Simulation (LES). LES is described in terms of the temporally evolving Eulerian velocity field defined over a spatial grid with the mean-spacing correspondent to the resolved scale. This classic Eulerian LES depends on assumptions about the effects of sub-grid scales on the resolved scales. Here, we take an alternative approach and design novel LES heuristics stated in terms of Lagrangian particles moving with the flow. Our \emph{Lagrangian LES}, thus L-LES, is described by equations generalizing the weakly compressible Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics formulation with extended parametric and functional freedom, which is then resolved via Machine Learning training on Lagrangian data from Direct Numerical Simulations of the NS equations. The L-LES model includes physics-informed parameterization and functional form, by combining physics-based parameters and physics-inspired Neural Networks to describe the evolution of turbulence within the resolved range of scales. The sub-grid scale contributions are modeled separately with physical constraints to account for the effects from un-resolved scales. We build the resulting model under the Differentiable Programming framework to facilitate efficient training. We experiment with loss functions of different types, including physics-informed ones accounting for statistics of Lagrangian particles. We show that our Lagrangian LES model is capable of reproducing Eulerian and unique Lagrangian turbulence structures and statistics over a range of turbulent Mach numbers.

Tian, Yifeng↗

Diabatic Eddy Forcing Increases Persistence and Opposes Propagation of the Southern Annular Mode in MERRA-2

Abstract As a dominant mode of jet variability on subseasonal time scales, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) provides a window into how the atmosphere can produce internal oscillations on longer-than-synoptic time scales. While SAM’s existence can be explained by dry, purely barotropic theories, the time scale for its persistence and propagation is set by a lagged interaction between barotropic and baroclinic mechanisms, making the exact physical mechanisms challenging to identify and to simulate, even in latest generation models. By partitioning the eddy momentum flux convergence in MERRA-2 using an eddy–mean flow interaction framework, we demonstrate that diabatic processes (condensation and radiative heating) are the main contributors to SAM’s persistence in its stationary regime, as well as the key for preventing propagation in this regime. In SAM’s propagating regime, baroclinic and diabatic feedbacks also dominate the eddy–jet feedback. However, propagation is initiated by barotropic shifts in upper-level wave breaking and then sustained by a baroclinic response, leading to a roughly 60-day oscillation period. This barotropic propagation mechanism has been identified in dry, idealized models, but here we show evidence of this mechanism for the first time in reanalysis. The diabatic feedbacks on SAM are consistent with modulation of the storm-track latitude by SAM, altering the emission temperature and cloud cover over individual waves. Therefore, future attempts to improve the SAM time scale in models should focus on the storm-track location, as well as the roles of the cloud and moisture parameterizations. Significance Statement As they circumnavigate the planet, the tropospheric jet streams slowly drift north and south over about 30 days, longer than the normal limit of weather prediction. Understanding the source of this “memory” could improve our knowledge of how the atmosphere organizes itself and our ability to make long-term forecasts. Current theories have identified several possible internal atmospheric interactions responsible for this memory. Yet most of the theories for understanding the jets’ behavior assume that this behavior is only weakly influenced by atmospheric water vapor. We show that this assumption is not enough to understand jet persistence. Instead, clouds and precipitation are more important contributors in reanalysis data than internal “dry” mechanisms to this memory of the Southern Hemisphere jet.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗