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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Keeping Classified Information Secret in the World of Quantum Computing

Quantum computing is a technology that promises to revolutionize computing by speeding up key computing tasks in are as such as machine learning and solving otherwise intractable problems.Some influential American policymakers, scholars, and analysts are extremely concerned about the effects quantum computing will have on national security. Similar to the way space technology was viewed in the context of the US-Soviet rivalry during the Cold War, scientific advancement in quantum computing is seen as a race with significant national security consequences, particularly in the emerging US-China rivalry.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate Extremes and Variability Surrounding Chesapeake Bay: Past, Present, and Future

Measures of extreme climate variability around Chesapeake Bay have changed over the past century (1895–2014), resulting in the need to establish new baselines for understanding future change. Here, observed climate variability is compared with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project fifth assessment climate models to evaluate ensemble model skill in this region. Observed trends include annual and seasonal declines in the percentage of cold days. Similarly, increases in the annual and seasonal percentages of warm days occurred in all seasons of the North Chesapeake (>38.2°N) but were only significant in spring and summer in the South (<38.2°N) demonstrating regional differences even at local scales. Precipitation intensity increased over the past century. Models using emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5 project these trends will continue, though they have little skill in precipitation extremes. Pacific and Atlantic climate modes are generally more correlated with climate extremes than mean temperature and precipitation suggesting potential predictability in the synoptic patterns underlying the extremes. However, they also drive the need for time series at least 60-years long for establishing climate trends. This local analysis differs from regional, state level, and local 2.5° × 3.75° grid analyses, highlighting the importance of local climate assessments that consider topographic and regional weather patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A tale of two extremes: Temperature sensitivity of carbon loss from cool and hot soils

Soils represent the largest terrestrial carbon (C) pool, and the flux of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from soils to the atmosphere is ~ 6-10 times more than anthropogenic emissions. Understanding responses of soil CO 2 emissions to warming is crucial for evaluating feedback to ongoing environmental changes. The relationship between microbial respiration and temperature is typically modeled using a Q 10 function. Generally, observations of the apparent Q 10 of soil respiration are higher for cold vs. warm ecosystems, reflecting expected biophysical controls of Arrhenius kinetics. However, results from two field warming experiments in the tropics contradict this expectation, both observing extraordinarily high soil respiration responses to in situ warming. Our overall objective for the proposed work is to reduce uncertainty in temperature sensitivity of soil C loss by systematically synthesizing underlying mechanisms related to soil C turnover and stabilization. We are evaluating the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration in ecosystems across temperature extremes (e.g., arctic/boreal and tropical systems) by integrating data collected from field warming experiments with machine learning and biogeochemical models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A high-performance lung-inspired ceramic 3D-printed heat exchanger for high-temperature energy-efficient systems

The thermal-to-electric conversion efficiency of next-generation supercritical carbon dioxide and concentrated solar power plants is significantly augmented by operating at temperatures exceeding 1000 °C if durable, compact, high-temperature heat exchangers (HXs) are developed. Whereas metal 3D-printed HXs fail to operate under extreme temperature conditions, ceramic 3D-printed HXs are deemed promising candidates for high-temperature, highly oxidizing environments. Ceramic 3D-printed HXs, however, exhibit a high gas permeability issue through hot and cold separating walls due to an excessive non-volatile photopolymer content utilized. Here, in this work, a novel leak-free lung-inspired ceramic 3D-printed HX employing a highly complex heat transfer topology is introduced for high-temperature energy-efficient systems. The high permeability issue of ceramic 3D-printed HXs is fully eliminated through a uniform zinc-based coating. It was determined that the effective thermal conductivity of the sintered ceramic heat exchangers is affected by the coated layer. The high-temperature thermal and hydraulic characteristics of the lung-inspired ceramic 3D-printed HX are comprehensively examined and compared against a millichannel 3D-printed HX module. Experimental results indicated that the lung-inspired 3D-printed ceramic HX significantly outperforms its millichannel counterpart. The lung-inspired HX shows a volume-based power density of 8.2 MW/m3 at a hot-side inlet air temperature of 700°C, a 71 % improvement compared with that of the millichannel HX. More importantly, the higher thermal duty of the lung-inspired 3D-printed HX is realized at a lower normalized pressure drop penalty of 510 Pa/W, 22 % lower than that of the millichannel ceramic HX. This study accelerates the advancement of high-performance ceramic 3D-printed HXs with complex topologies for high-temperature energy-efficient systems and/or corrosive environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Eight Metagenome-Assembled Genomes Provide Evidence for Microbial Adaptation in 20,000- to 1,000,000-Year-Old Siberian Permafrost

Permafrost microbes may be metabolically active in microscopic layers of liquid brines, even in ancient soil. Metagenomics can help discern whether permafrost microbes show adaptations to this environment. Thirty-three metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) were obtained from six depths (3.5 m to 20 m) of freshly cored permafrost from the Siberian Kolyma-Indigirka Lowland region. These soils have been continuously frozen for ~20,000 to 1,000,000 years. Eight of these MAGs were ≥80% complete with <10% contamination and were taxonomically identified as Aminicenantes, Atribacteria, Chloroflexi, and Actinobacteria within bacteria and Thermoprofundales within archaea. MAGs from these taxa have been obtained previously from nonpermafrost environments and have been suggested to show adaptations to long-term energy starvation, but they have never been explored in ancient permafrost. The permafrost MAGs had greater proportions in the Clusters of Orthologous Groups (COGs) categories of energy production and conversion and carbohydrate transport and metabolism than did their nonpermafrost counterparts. They also contained genes for trehalose synthesis, thymine metabolism, mevalonate biosynthesis, and cellulose degradation, which were less prevalent in nonpermafrost genomes. Furthermore, many of these genes are involved in membrane stabilization and osmotic stress responses, consistent with adaptation to the anoxic, high-ionic-strength, cold environments of permafrost brine films. Our results suggest that this ancient permafrost contains DNA of high enough quality to assemble MAGs from microorganisms with adaptations to survive long-term freezing in this extreme environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Present and Future of QCD: QCD Town Meeting White Paper – An Input to the 2023 NSAC Long Range Plan

It is currently understood that there are four fundamental forces in nature: gravitational, electromagnetic, weak and strong forces. The strong force governs the interactions between quarks and gluons, elementary particles whose interactions give rise to the vast majority of visible mass in the universe. The mathematical description of the strong force is provided by the non-Abelian gauge theory Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD). While QCD is an exquisite theory, constructing the nucleons and nuclei from quarks, and furthermore explaining the behavior of quarks and gluons at all energies, remain to be complex and challenging problems. Such challenges, along with the desire to understand all visible matter at the most fundamental level, position the study of QCD as a central thrust of research in nuclear science. Experimental insight into the strong force can be gained using large particle accelerator facilities, which are necessary to probe the very short distance scales over which quarks and gluons interact. The Long Range Plans (LRPs) exercise of 1989 and 1996 led directly to the construction of two world-class facilities: the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) at Jefferson Lab (JLab) that is focused on studying how the structure of hadrons emerges from QCD (cold QCD research), and the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) at Brookhaven National Lab (BNL) that aims at the discovery and study of a new state of matter, the quark-gluon plasma (QGP), at extremely high temperatures (hot QCD research). These past investments have produced major advances. Nucleons and nuclei are being studied with increasing precision with a unified description of the partonic structure utilizing multi-dimensional imaging. Significant progress has been made, paving the way towards a complete picture of how quarks and gluons give rise to the mass, spin, and momentum of the nucleon. In hot QCD, the QGP is created in the collisions of nuclei at RHIC and the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) and is observed to behave like a fluid with very low specific shear viscosity; the current goals are to understand how the fluid behavior emerges from QCD and to characterize the temperature (and chemical potential) dependence of the properties of the QGP. As this White Paper is written, current experimental programs at CEBAF, RHIC and the LHC continue to provide exciting near term opportunities to capitalize on the investments in experimental equipment and accelerator operations. Most importantly, the QCD community looks forward to the construction of the Electron Ion Collider (EIC) as a major new facility to push forward QCD research in the next decades, with significant focus on exploring the properties of gluons, the mediators of the strong force.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Determining the Effects of Neutron Irradiation on the Structural Integrity of Additively Manufactured Heat Exchangers for Very Small Modular Reactor Applications, DOE Final Report (Project # 19-16980)

Auburn University (AU) teamed with the University of Missouri Research Reactor (MURR) and Kansas State University (KSU) to determine how to best use laser-powder bed fusion (L-PBF) additive manufacturing (AM) methods for generating radiation resistant nickel-based superalloys, Inconel alloy 625 and 718, for special purpose reactor (SPR) or very small modular reactor (vSMR) heat-exchangers (HeXs). Compact, conformal, and durable HeXs that are tolerant of extreme environments are needed for supporting the technical maturity of next-generation, portable compact reactors. AM is an enabler for realizing this new wave of HeXs – providing a means to make customizable hot and cold stream architectures with novel flow path geometries (e.g., tortuous channels with non-uniform, asymmetric cross-sections) and reduced layer-to-layer contact resistance (i.e., no separate bonding procedure required). AM further enables a more time/cost efficient means for fabricating SPRs by reducing the number of suppliers required for HeX assembly and allowing for on-site HeX fabrication. The project aim has been to better understand how neutron irradiation affects the microstructure and properties of additively manufactured nickel-based superalloys, to accelerate their safe, reliable use in the modular reactor industry. The major objective was to qualify/quantify the microstructure and microhardness of nickel-based superalloys (including Inconel 718 and 625) additively manufactured via the L-PBF process in the neutron-dosed (irradiated) and non-irradiated states over a course of 3 years. Effects of build orientation during L-PBF and post-AM heat treatments on neutron resistance, microstructure and mechanical properties were also investigated. Neutron damage mechanisms via hardening were characterized. This project combined subject-matter experts in AM, mechanical/microstructure metallic part characterization, and neutron irradiation, as well as unique assets and capabilities at AU and MURR at MU, to ensure project results translated to effectively addressing known gaps in nuclear science and engineering. Parts were fabricated using L-PBF systems readily available at AU. Specimens were then irradiated using MURR facilities; a manipulator equipped hot cell was also used to measure material hardness after dosing. MURR, a 10 MW, light-water nuclear reactor, is the largest, highest powered, highest-flux university owned research reactor in the U.S. The major findings in this project provide evidence that AM can serve as an alternative way to build structural components for future advanced small modular reactors using advanced materials like Inconel 625 (IN625) or Inconel 718 (IN718). After full spectrum neutron irradiation, vertically as-built AM IN625 samples were observed to display better resistance towards radiation-induced-hardening defects relative to traditionally machined metals. A Vickers microhardness tester, using settings of 1 kgf and dwell time of 15 seconds per indentation, was used to measure hardness in this study. The as-built, vertically printed samples experienced 1.2% of radiation hardening vs. 5.25% radiation hardening observed in wrought IN625. Another set of IN625 and IN718 samples were exposed to fast neutron irradiation. It was observed that IN718 showed more resistance towards radiation hardening compared to IN625 samples indicating IN718 had a better performance. Results showed that the IN718 samples experienced less change (-2.5 to 3.24 %) in microhardness. On the other hand, IN625 samples underwent more (0.9 to 7.21%) change in microhardness after fast neutron irradiation. AM IN625 samples were irradiated using an ion (proton) beam in cyclotron. The mechanical properties of AM samples post irradiation were compared with wrought samples. The irradiated region on the samples were tested using nano-hardness indention. It was observed that the beam current and time used in this study generated an annealing effect and thus reduced the hardness of the samples. The sum of the project results provide precious insight into how one may minimize radiation hardening in AM materials while maintaining material property constraints. Results should assist engineers in selecting an appropriate heat treatment for AM nickel-based superalloys for increased radiation resistance. Results should increase confidence levels for adopting AM for building nuclear reactor components which perform the same or better than conventionally manufactured components. Fast neutron irradiation testing provided an accelerated means of obtaining radiation effects without making materials radioactive and difficult to handle.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigation of Microwave Transducers for Linearity Dependence and Applications in Quantum Networking

Quantum devices have the potential to revolutionize applications in computing, communications, and sensing; however, current state-of-art resources must operate at extremely low temperatures, making the routing of microwave control and readout signals challenging to scale. Interest in microwave photonic solutions to this problem has grown in recent years, in which control signals are delivered to the cold stage via optical fiber, where they are converted to electrical signals through photodetection. Overall link performance depends strongly on the characteristics of the photodiode, yet detailed measurements of many detector properties remain lacking at cold temperatures. In this work, we examine and compare the performance of a modified uni-traveling carrier photodiode (MUTC-PD) at both room (300 K) and liquid nitrogen (80 K) temperatures, focusing in particular on responsivity, bandwidth, and linearity. In line with previous work, we find a sharp reduction in responsivity at 1550 nm as temperature decreases, while RF bandwidth remains steady. Interestingly, our linearity tests reveal that the RF output saturates more quickly at 80 K, suggesting reduced linearity with lower temperature, the cause of which is still under investigation. Our results should help contribute to the understanding and future design of highly linear cryogenic quantum links.

Bolton, Summer↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploiting the PRISM Feature and Purity Monitors of the SBND Neutrino Detector

The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program at Fermilab will pursue neutrino properties searches, exploiting three Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) experiments to investigate neutrino oscillations with neutrinos from the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB). SBND will be the near detector in the program, measuring the un-oscillated flux. It is anticipated to begin operating in 2023. Thanks to its peculiar proximity to the neutrino source of about 110 meters, SBND will collect extremely high statistics data of the flux in the GeV energy range, providing unprecedented precision measurements. SBND particular setting also allows to take measurements at different distances from BNB’s center maintaining statistics high enough at each range. LArTPC and the cold electronics technologies, as well as the argon-neutrino interaction studies, will play a key role in future neutrino physics. In this prospect, this work was focused on two SBND features: SBND PRISM tool, with the aim of investigating neutrino flux at different distances from the beam axis, and Purity Monitors, which provide a clever measurement of argon purity in the detector, whose value is fundamental in neutrino-argon interaction.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

SHOTEAM: Superalloy Heat exchangers Optimized for Temperature Extremes and Additive Manufacturability (Final Technical Report)

UCLA developed an extreme-condition heat exchanger technology targeted to ultra-high efficiency hybrid aviation power cycles. The heat exchanger targeted operation at 50 kW (thermal) at supercritical CO 2 pressures of 80 and 250 bar (1160 and 3626 psi) in hot and cold streams, respectively and at a hot-stream inlet temperature of 800°C (1472°F). A metallic superalloy capable of withstanding high temperature and pressure was used to fabricate a microtube shell-and-tube-based design supplemented with 3D-printed tube augmentations. The optimized design enhanced overall heat transfer while maintaining a small overall form factor and low weight. This class of heat exchanger could dramatically improve efficiency, power density, and cost effectiveness for new hybrid aviation power cycles, thus enabling economically feasible routes to air vehicle propulsion with substantially less CO 2 emissions to the environment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Vertical Structure and Ice Production Processes of Shallow Convective Postfrontal Clouds over the Southern Ocean in MARCUS. Part I: Observational Study

A study of the vertical structure of postfrontal shallow clouds in the marine boundary layer over the Southern Ocean is presented here. The central question of this two-part study regards cloud phase (liquid/ice) of precipitation, and the associated growth mechanisms. In this first part, data from the Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation, and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS) field campaign are analyzed, starting with a 75-h case with continuous sea surface-based thermal instability, modest surface heat fluxes, an open-cellular mesoscale organization, and very few ice nucleating particles (INPs). The clouds are mostly precipitating and shallow (tops mostly around 2 km above sea level), with weak up- and downdrafts, and with cloud-top temperatures generally around –18° to –10°C. Further, the case study is extended to three other periods of postfrontal shallow clouds in MARCUS. While abundant supercooled liquid water is commonly present, an experimental cloud-phase algorithm classifies nearly two-thirds of clouds in the 0° to –5°C layer as containing ice (cloud ice, snow, or mixed phase), implying that much of the precipitation grows through cold-cloud processes. The best predictors of ice presence are cloud-top temperature, cloud depth, and INP concentration. Measures of convective activity and turbulence are found to be poor indicators of ice presence in the studied environment. The water-phase distribution in this cloud regime is explored through numerical simulations in Part II. Significance Statement: Climate models generally predict a lower albedo than observed over the Southern Ocean, and this is largely attributed to a lack of cloudiness, especially in the postfrontal cold sector of midlatitude cyclones. This in turn may be due to an excess of ice in these simulated clouds, resulting in rapid precipitation fallout and an overly brief cloud lifespan. The objective of this study is to examine whether shallow postfrontal clouds over the Southern Ocean are dominated by supercooled drops, or by snow and ice, using data collected by a U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility deployed aboard an Australian Antarctic supply vessel. We find that these clouds contain much supercooled liquid, even though cloud-top temperatures generally are around –18° to –8°C, and that about two-thirds of the clouds just above the freezing level contain ice. Much of the precipitation appears to grow through cold-cloud processes above the freezing level, rather than drizzle/rain. Updrafts and/or turbulence in convection or in cloud-top generating cells do not initiate much ice, compared to observations elsewhere in a similar temperature range. This may be attributable to the extremely low concentration of ice nucleating particles in this environment. Ultimately, the deepest clouds with the coldest cloud tops are most likely to be ice dominated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

High pressure melt line of nickel using a generalized embedded atomic method potential

As the second most abundant metal in the Earth's core, nickel plays an important role in determining the structure and temperature of the Earth's core. Yet, the melt line of Ni at pressures corresponding to the Earth's core has not been explored in the literature. Many previous experimental and simulation efforts have reported the melting point of Ni at pressures below 100 GPa, but there exist large discrepancies, most of which have persisted due to various experimental and simulation bottlenecks in handling extreme pressure and temperature conditions. We adopted the generalized embedded atom method, which overcomes the limitations of existing interatomic potentials, to probe phase stability and phase boundaries of Ni at pressures between 50 and 500 GPa. Further, the potential was validated by comparing the cold curves, phonon dispersion curves, and enthalpies of fusion with ab initio density functional theory calculations. Our analysis shows that face centered cubic (FCC) is stable, and the hexagonal close packed (HCP) and body centered cubic (BCC) phases are metastable close to the melt line. Melting temperatures at different pressures were obtained from two-phase co-existence simulations and take the following functional form: $T$ m = $1969.23+19.15P-0.012P$ 2 . In contrast to iron, differences between the melting points of the stable and metastable phases of Ni are less than 250 K at 300 GPa, and the difference in melting points of the metastable BCC and HCP phases changes sign at 500 GPa, which implies that the phase transition mechanisms during solidification can be very complex.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Multi-scenario Extreme Weather Simulator: Energy Resilience for Mission Assurance

The Multi-scenario extreme weather simulator (MEWS) is a stochastic weather generation tool. The MEWS algorithm uses 50 or more years of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) daily summaries [1] for maximum and minimum temperature and NOAA climate norms [2] to calculate historical heat wave and cold snap statistics. The algorithm takes these statistics and shifts them according to multiplication factors provided in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) physical basis technical summary [3] for heat waves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

TRACER-Uncrewed Aircraft System (TRACER-UAS) Field Campaign Report

Convective processes drive the development of clouds across a variety of scales, thereby playing a central role in governing weather and climate globally. These processes help to set the stage for circulations that redistribute heat and moisture throughout the lower atmosphere, and simultaneously develop storms that supply precipitation to regions that depend on such rain events for supporting a variety of societal needs. At the same time, extreme precipitation events can result in localized flooding of low-lying areas, posing hazards to transportation and regional inhabitants, and potentially damaging structures and infrastructure. As a result, there is an inherent need to better understand the drivers and modulators of clouds and precipitation and leverage such understanding to make projections of how these important systems may evolve with a changing climate. With nearly three billion of Earth’s human inhabitants living within 200 km of a shoreline, development of such understanding is particularly important in coastal regimes. Central drivers of convective cloud development and life cycle in coastal environments include synoptic forcing, local meso- and microscale circulation regimes, microphysical evolution, and aerosol properties. Atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) development and its evolution can help drive the formation and organization of convective clouds, which then impart their own controls through dynamic processes related to latent heating and cooling (including cold-pool formation and propagation), three-dimensional radiative effects, and background environmental conditions (Fan et al. 2016). Such clouds have been contributing to record precipitation events in southeast Texas in recent years, relative to the last several decades of data from regional precipitation gauges (Fagnant et al. 2020). The greater Houston urban area has experienced particularly large increases in the frequency of extreme rainfall events, with enhanced intensity of extreme events (stretching of distribution tails) having potentially significant implications for watershed floodplain planning and mapping in greater Houston and Harris County. While the most extreme precipitation events were associated with tropical cyclones (e.g., Tropical Storm Allison and Hurricane Harvey; Blood 2014, Kao et al. 2019), strong thunderstorms can also deliver large amounts of precipitation over the area over relatively short periods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Extreme Low-Temperature Stress Affects Nutritional Quality of Amino Acids in Rice

Global climate change has increased the frequency of extreme climate events, and their effects on the nutritional quality, especially on amino acids in rice, have not been quantified. The data from a 3-year low temperature stress (LTS) experiment including two rice varieties (Huaidao 5 and Nanjing 46), seven minimum/maximum temperature levels (one optimal 21/27°C and six LTS levels from 17/23 to 6/12°C), and three LTS durations (3, 6, and 9 days) after flowering, revealed significant interactive effects of LTS at different stages, durations, and temperature levels on the content and accumulation of amino acids. LTS increased rice total amino acid content, while decreasing its accumulation, with higher sensitivities to LTS at the flowering stage than at the grain filling stage. In most treatments, the lysine (the first limiting amino acid) and phenylalanine content were increased under LTS at early and peak flowering stages but decreased at the grain filling stage in both varieties, and only leucine content was increased at all three stages after flowering, while the content of other essential amino acids differed among the two varieties. With an increase of 1°C·d per day in the accumulated cold degree days, the relative content of the essential amino acids was increased by 0.01–0.41%, depending on the rice variety and growth stage. Our results suggest that LTS can improve nutritional quality of amino acids of rice grains in terms of amino acids content, especially at flowering stage. These results provide critical insights for assessing the potential impact of extreme climates on the nutrient quality of rice under future climate change.

Kang, Min↗
DOE OSTI2019

Understanding the Role of Tropical Moisture in Atmospheric Rivers

There has been a long-standing debate about whether tropical moisture export (TME) or local moisture convergence play the dominant role in the development and strength of Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). In this work, we quantify the contribution of TME to 29 simulated extreme ARs that affected the U.S. Northwest Coast by “tagging” tropical moisture using water vapor tracers in the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. From a case study with strong TME, we find three mechanisms by which TME can contribute to AR strength: direct contribution of moisture, indirect contributions via thermodynamic feedbacks and indirect contributions via synoptic-scale dynamic feedbacks. Focusing on these processes, we divide the 29 simulated ARs into two groups (>25% of TME contribution to inland precipitation as TME-ARs and <25% as NTME-ARs) and find that TME-ARs are characterized by stronger pre-cold-frontal low-level jets and stronger warm air advection. Notably, the ARs with the greatest 2-day precipitation are found to be TME-ARs but with <50% TME contributions, indicating a more dominant role of indirect enhancement of local moisture convergence due to TME than the direct moisture contribution supplying precipitation.

Hu, Huancui↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projected changes in extreme rainfall and temperature events and possible implications for Cameroon's socio-economic sectors

Extreme events like flooding, droughts and heatwave are among the factors causing huge socio-economic losses to Cameroonians. Investigating the potential response of rainfall and temperature extremes to global warming is therefore critically needed for tailoring and adjusting the country's policies. Recent datasets have been developed for this purpose within the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) initiative, at ~25 km grid spacing. These regional climate models were used to dynamically downscaled four global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), under the optimistic and pessimistic representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5, respectively. These models were employed in this study for characterizing the response of Cameroon's extreme precipitation and temperature events to global warming, using seven indices defined by the Expert Team on Cli mate Change Detection and Indices. Under global warming, the maximum number of consecutive dry (wet) days' is expected to increase (decrease). However, the annual total rainfall amount is expected to increase, mainly due to the intensification of very wet days and daily rainfall intensity. Furthermore, the temperature-based indices reveal an increase (decrease) in the total annual hot (cold) days, and overall, changes intensify with increased radiative forcing. The high-mitigated low-emission pathway RCP2.6 features attenuated changes, and even sometimes adapts to reverse the sign of changes. Designing reliable policies to limit the risks associated with the above changes is required, as their socio-economic consequences are likely to include food insecurity, heat-related illness, population impoverishment, price rises and market instability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

From peak to plummet: impending decline of the warm Arctic-cold continents phenomenon

Abstract This study assesses the projected trajectory of Warm Arctic-Cold Continent (WACC) events in East Asia and North America through large ensemble simulation for the upcoming decades. It analyses the evolution of the geographical boundaries of threshold cold temperatures, revealing a significant northward shift as a sign of global warming’s impact on the southward advancement of Arctic cold air. While validating the intensification of the WACC phenomenon until the 2020 s, echoing earlier studies, the findings indicate a marked decrease beginning in the 2030s. If warming is not curbed, this shift suggests a critical modification in the WACC pattern, prompting a re-evaluation of existing theories and models for extreme winter weather events. The results have major implications, spurring communities impacted by WACC to anticipate future changes and encouraging the climate forecasting community to update conceptual models for improved adaptation and mitigation approaches.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗