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A maximum a posteriori Bayesian Classifier is used to perform a supervised classification of multifrequency, polariemtric, airborne, SAR obserations of boreal forests from the Bonanza Creek Experimental Forest, near Fairbanks, AK, into six Categories.
On 8 May 1997 vertical profiles of over 30 different gases were measured remotely in solar occultation by the JPl MkIV Interferometer during a balloon flight launched from Fairbanks, Alaska.
This paper presents the CubeSat Communications Platform (CCP) mission concept, architecture, and development. The CCP is a CubeSat demonstration mission, being developed at the University of Alaska Fairbanks to improve satellite communication capabilities. The CCP payloads include a Software Defined Radio (SDR) with Variable Coded Modulation (VCM) protocols, and an S-band phased array antenna. The mission will test the performance of the VCM protocols versus conventional fixed modulation and coding schemes, relative to the percentage of the Shannon Channel Capacity that each scheme achieves over entire satellite passes. The mission will also test the performance of the phased array antenna, with regard to beamforming and interrogator scanning accuracy. The CCP Mission is collaborating with NASA's Near Space Network (NSN) to demonstrate DVB-S2 VCM and achievable maximum data rate in NASA S-band 5 MHz channel. NSN currently supports missions that communicate with fixed channel codes, modulations, and symbol rates, resulting in a constant data rate that does not adapt to the dynamic link margin. VCM adapts to the dynamics of the link to increase information throughput by changing modulation and coding when the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is high. The CCP will be the first mission to demonstrate VCM with NSN ground stations.
Accurate determination and mapping of vegetation height is a prerequisite for regional estimations of above ground biomass, carbon pool dynamics, and improved modeling of future climate-vegetation-soil interactions. This study combined land cover class maps (at 30-m pixel resolution) derived from Landsat image bands with canopy vegetation heights detected at 1-m resolution from NASA G-LiHT Lidar flights, both from the year 2014 for the Middle Tanana Valley near Fairbanks, Alaska. The statistical distributions and structural attributes from Lidar plant heights were derived and refined for all Landsat vegetation classes. Results showed that the tallest cover classes in this region were deciduous forests (dominated by birch and aspen), followed by evergreen spruce and wooded wetlands. Open shrubland and herbaceous cover areas were determined to be 2 - 5 m shorter, on average, than these boreal forest stands. Tall shrubland cover areas were slightly shorter than most spruce-dominated evergreen forest areas. Nearly 60% of all low shrubland and herbaceous wetland pixels were detected with at least one tree crown greater than 10 m tall. This was in contrast to evergreen and deciduous forest classes that showed 88% of stands with at least one tree crown greater than 10 m tall.
With its weather independence and day-and-night capabilities, SAR has long been known as a useful data set for flood monitoring. The recently launched Sentinel-1 (S1) C-band sensors, with their regularly acquired, free-and-open data, have finally elevated SAR to a relevant data source in operational hazard response. Leveraging these capabilities of S1, this poster introduces the HYDRO30 product, a 30-m resolution surface water extent product derived from dual-pol S1 SAR data. To enable automatic and near real-time product generation, HYDRO30 is embedded in the HydroSAR service, a cloud-based production pipeline developed by the University of Alaska Fairbanks in collaboration with the NASA Alaska Satellite Facility DAAC and the NASA Marshall and Goddard Space Flight Centers.
Assessing the cirrus cloud radiative effect is crucial to establish their feedback on the Earth- atmosphere system. For this reason, cirrus clouds are of paramount importance in climate. Moreover, these tiny ice clouds are the most common cloud gene, continuously covering 30% of the Earth’s surface, peaking to 70% in the tropical and equatorial regions. The same authors, in three different recent studies, assessed the yearly cirrus cloud radiative effects characteristics for different NASA MPLNET permanent observational sites, deployed at different latitudes, e. g. Goddard Space Flight Center, Singapore, and Fairbanks Alaska. The analysis put in evidence that the cirrus cloud can be both cooling or warming agents of the Earth-atmosphere system during the daytime, depending on their latitude. The cirrus clouds are warming agents in equatorial/tropical regions because of the higher averaged solar zenith angle, and become neutral at mid-latitudes. At polar latitudes instead, cirrus clouds become cooling agents because of the lower solar zenith angle. In this analysis instead, using the Fu-Liou-Gu radiative transfer model, we assess how the cirrus cloud radiative effects, both at the top of the atmosphere and surface, changed over twenty years. The analysis is extended also to evaluate also changes in cloud optical depth over the same period. This is unprecedented research, because to our knowledge, no other analysis has been carried out from ground-based measurement for such a long period. As a future perspective, the analysis will be repeated for the different observational sites of the MPLNET lidar network to evaluate cirrus cloud radiative effects at a global scale.
In this work several machine-learning (ML) techniques for predicting ionospheric irregularities in the northern auroral zone were tested. The techniques include Ridge Regression, Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (LSTM), Classification Neural Network (CNN), Autoencoder Classification Neural Network (ACNN), and LSTM Autoencoder Classification Neural Network (LACNN). These techniques were tested with the rate of total electron content (TEC) index (ROTI) data collected during 2008 and 2009 from a geodetic station in Fairbanks, Alaska (64.98°N, 147.50°W), which is in the auroral zone. Using ROTI data with the ML techniques, experiments were conducted to reach two goals: (1) examine what space weather measurements present good correlation with ROTI so that they may be helpful in ML-based prediction of ionospheric irregularities in the polar region; (2) predict ROTI hours and days ahead by training the neural network models with historical ROTI data alone. The Ridge Regression experiments indicate that a combination of measurements of local geomagnetic horizontal components, geomagnetic SYM-H index, 3-hour Kp and ap indices, and F10.7 solar flux index appears to be more correlated to the single-site ROTI measurements than other parameters. The neural network (NN) experiments show that although the LACNN model allows for predictions of non-irregularity and irregularity conditions defined by ROTI levels up to 3 hours in advance, with an overall accuracy ≥ 92%, a number of irregularity events can still be missed. Hence, further development is needed to reduce the number of missed events. In this paper, the models, data processing, model performance, prediction results, and potential applications are presented.
Overview of GRC and potential opportunities for collaborations with University of Alaska Fairbanks
The coastal community of Unalakleet is currently the 8th most at-risk community in Alaska due to the adverse effects of climate change that include permafrost degradation, severe coastal erosion, and sea-level rise-induced flood inundation caused by increasingly frequent storm surges. In response, the community has started a managed relocation with support from the Native Village of Unalakleet (NVU) and the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL)’s Alaska campus in Fairbanks. The Unalakleet Climate NASA DEVELOP team partnered with NREL to provide remote sensing support and analysis for resilience planning in Unalakleet, supporting their ongoing relocation efforts and guiding future expansion. The team utilized Sentinel-1 C-Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), WorldView-2, and WorldView-3 datasets from 2017 – 2023 to analyze seasonal summer subsidence and utilized a 2014 Ancillary USGS 5 m Alaska DEM to conduct drainage network analyses that included watershed delineation and Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND) analysis. The team also used high-resolution WorldView images to locate stable reference points that served as quality control for the team’s analyses. The team’s end products included maps containing subsidence and drainage zones information at and surrounding the relocation site. The team’s products provide NREL with valuable data that enables them to better assist Unalakleet’s managed relocation and assists Unalakleet with adapting to the catastrophic effects of climate change and build resilience in a community on the front lines of climate change.
Remote, cold climates present challenges to finding safe and affordable options to heat homes. In Alaska, residential ground source heat pumps (GSHPs) have been gaining in popularity to fill this gap. However, there is little research on their long-term performance or effect on soil temperatures. The extended heating season and cold soils of Alaska provide a harsh testing ground for GSHPs, even those designed and marketed for colder climates. The large and unbalanced heating load of cold climates creates a challenging environment for GSHPs. In 2013 the Cold Climate Housing Research Center (CCHRC) installed a GSHP at its Research and Testing Facility (RTF) in Fairbanks, Alaska. The heat pump replaced an oil-fired condensing boiler heating a 464 m2 office space via an in-floor hydronic radiant heating system. The ground heat exchanger (GHE) was installed in moisture-rich silty soils underlain with permafrost near 0°C. The intent of the installation was to observe and monitor the system over a 10-year period in order to develop a better understanding of the performance of GSHPs in sites with permafrost and to help inform future design. As of this writing, the heat pump system has been running for seven heating seasons. The efficiency in those seven heating seasons has been variable with ups and downs that have been difficult to explain. This paper seeks to understand the variability in performance as well as make recommendations for GSHP use in other cold climates.
Sub-Arctic environments present a unique challenge for the continuous operation of mechanical ventilation systems in occupied buildings where cold temperatures create complications for maintaining adequate air quality, efficiency, and system operability. Heat recovery ventilation is most difficult at the coldest temperatures, when there is the greatest availability to transfer heat between airstreams, due to the potential for frost accumulation in the exhaust airstream. Frost limits heat transfer and creates the potential for subsequent blockage of airflow. A successful frost prevention strategy is necessary to ensure that recovery ventilation systems function in locations with a large amount of annual heating degree days. Commonly, this is achieved by preheating outdoor air above freezing temperatures via airflow through a glycol-water mix hydronic coil before heat exchange occurs. Preheating the outdoor air proactively inhibits frost formation but is associated with a penalty to recovery efficiency. A commercial-scale heat recovery ventilator in a facility in Fairbanks, Alaska was analyzed for sensible recovery effectiveness and exhaust temperature at different winter conditions. The system utilized the common defrost strategy of preheating the air above-freezing with a static temperature control scheme. The heat transfer efficiency of the recovery ventilator was observed to be poor at various winter conditions with elevated exhaust temperatures indicating lost heat recovery effectiveness. Using prior findings on strategies for sub-freezing temperatures along with observed field conditions it was determined that a dynamic relationship between the coil and the exterior conditions would reduce the energy required to preheat the air and allow the heat exchanger to maximize effectiveness due to temperate difference. This reduction in preheated temperature of the air is achieved by modulating the temperature of the coil to keep the discharge air stream above a certain dewpoint temperature threshold, likely leading to energy savings for other sub-Arctic facilities using this frost control strategy.
As countries around the world transition towards renewable energy, there is increasing interest in using photovoltaic (PV) technologies to help decarbonize remote northern communities due to their scalability and affordability. However, a major barrier towards large-scale adoption of PV in cold climates is performance uncertainty under extreme environmental conditions including snowfall, freeze-thaw cycles, and high wind loads. Existing literature on PV degradation rates in the North is relatively limited, with published degradation rates varying between -0.2%/year (Sweden) to -1.3%/year (Scotland). At this workshop, we will present preliminary results on the long-term performance of two diverse photovoltaic sites located in Fairbanks, Alaska at 64.8 degrees N: a monofacial Al-BSF double-axis tracking site maintained by the Cold Climate Housing Research Center (CCHRC), and a bifacial PERC/SHJ E-W vertical and south-facing fixed-tilt site maintained by the Alaska Center Energy and Power (ACEP). CCHRC data has been collected over a period of 15 years, while ACEP site data has been collected over 4 years. Using the degradation analysis tool, RdTools, we will present annual system degradation rates, seasonal performance ratio, and identify potential cold climate failure mechanisms for commercially available PV technologies. This analysis will add to existing literature by directly comparing the performance of multiple PV configurations in Alaska.
Bifacial photovoltaic systems oriented vertically facing east-west are an emerging design, targeting production in morning and afternoon hours and providing competitive annual energy yield to traditional south-tilted modules for high latitude locations. The accuracy of existing bifacial PV models when modules are oriented vertically has yet to be examined in detail. Here, we compare four bifacial PV irradiance models in ~150 locations between 15-80 degrees N on the utility-scale, finding higher inter-model deviations for vertical PV systems than south-tilted across all latitudes less than 75 degrees N. We validate model-predicted irradiance with test-site data collected in Golden, Colorado and Fairbanks, Alaska for E-W vertical and south-tilted arrays. View factor models agree with E-W vertical test-site data in Golden with RMSE=15%. Modelling error increases for the Alaskan test-site to RMSE values between 21-30%, driven in part by high albedo measurement uncertainty during snowy months.
NREL leads research, innovation, and strategic partnerships that advance and strengthen energy abundance, affordability, security, and reliability as well as power economic growth and global competitiveness. Golden, Colorado, hosts the main NREL facility - the South Table Mountain Campus - and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) responsible site office - the Golden Field Office; the Flatirons Campus is located 25 miles north. Additional NREL facilities include NREL's Alaska Campus in Fairbanks and the Washington, D.C., office.
A high-performance cold-climate heat pump (CCHP) was developed and experimentally validated through comprehensive laboratory and field testing. The system utilized two equal-size tandem vapor-injection (VI) compressors with an inter-stage flash tank to improve efficiency and capacity retention under subfreezing conditions. Laboratory testing was conducted on a 3-ton prototype in a controlled environmental chamber equipped with calibrated thermocouples, refrigerant-side mass flow and pressure transducers, and precision airflow measurement for energy balance verification. The prototype achieved heating coefficients of performance (COPs) of 4.4 at 47 °F, 3.1 at 17 °F, and 2.0 at –13 °F, while maintaining 88% of its rated heating capacity at –13°F. These results confirm strong low-temperature performance and indicate the potential for significant reductions in electric resistance backup use. A field prototype was installed and monitored in a residential building in Fairbanks, Alaska, during a heating season. Instrumentation included real-time power, temperature, and refrigerant state measurements to evaluate performance under dynamic outdoor conditions. The heat pump operated reliably down to –30 °F, delivering 75% of its rated heating capacity with a COP of 1.8, while maintaining stable operation, effective defrost control, and indoor comfort without auxiliary heating. The combined laboratory and field results demonstrate that the tandem VI compressor configuration provides a practical and energy-efficient approach for residential heat pumps designed for cold and very cold climate regions.
The Arctic environment in 2024 continued on a trajectory that has put it in a state far different from that of the twentieth century. Ongoing accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continues to quickly warm the Arctic, resulting in rapid changes in the cryosphere that are driving cascading impacts to climate, ecological, and societal systems. Many weather- and climate-related impacts in the Arctic are the result of compounding change, such as increased riverbank erosion, which is proximately due to increased river discharge from higher seasonal precipitation, yet is also exacerbated by thawing permafrost. However, even individual storms occur within very different ocean and ice conditions than were typically present in the late twentieth century. As a result, the impacts, including high winds, excessive precipitation, and coastal inundation, may be quite different nowadays, as exemplified by the October 2024 storm in northwest Alaska that produced severe coastal flooding in several communities. To share some of these impacts with a wider audience, select extreme weather impacts around the greater Arctic have been highlighted through the inclusion of sidebars in recent State of the Climate Arctic chapters (e.g., Benestad et al. 2023; Thoman et al. 2024).
The springtime surface-albedo transition in the Alaskan Arctic, along with the forces that determine its duration and nature, was the focus of the Snow ALbedo eVOlution (SALVO) campaign. The SALVO team investigated the reasons and durations of the stages of spring melt, during which albedo values decrease from 0.8 to 0.1, signifying the year’s largest and most significant radiative energy change. SALVO II (2022, 2024) built on findings from the successful SALVO I (2019) melt season campaign and previous research on the melt transition period conducted by Grenfell and Perovich (2004). SALVO used the ARM NSA observatory, thus aligning with a core principle of the ARM Decadal Vision to “provide comprehensive and impactful field measurements to support scientific advancement of atmospheric process understanding.” SALVO fieldwork was conducted in the spring near the ARM NSA Central Facility in Utqiagvik, Alaska (Figure 1). Comprehensive data sets were collected in 2019, 2022, and 2024, which included spectral and broadband albedos, snow and meltwater depths, snow stratigraphy, snow grain size data, and aerial imagery. In April of each project year, before the snow began to melt, we established survey lines at three or four locations: inland tundra at NSA E12, coastal tundra at the NSA C1 site, Elson Lagoon, and offshore on the Chukchi Sea sea ice (2022 only). We set up a 200-meter-long line, marked every five meters, to enable repeated measurements of surface albedo and snow depth at each location. During most site visits, the SALVO II team dug at least one snow pit to assess the characteristics of the vertical snow layers, including the types and sizes of snow grains, snow density, and the distribution of liquid water. We evaluated the characteristics of flowing or pooled water at the bottom of the snowpack. Watching snow melt in the Arctic has been compared by some to being as exciting as watching paint dry, but it is far more exciting and dynamic than that. Initially, changes happen slowly while the snow cover remains above 80%, but then reductions in the albedo of the landscape, from about 0.8 to 0.4, combined with rising spring temperatures, begin to accelerate the melt. It happens so quickly that no matter how hard the field team works, they cannot keep up with documenting the changes. At first, liquid water is scarce—only a few wet layers of snow in the snowpack. But then, water becomes ubiquitous, transporting melt energy and creating an extremely heterogeneous albedo and melt landscape. At the end of each field season, the SALVO team is exhausted, relieved to see the snow gone, and joyful to play in the melt ponds on the sea ice under the midnight sun. Overall, the 2024 SALVO field campaign was a highlight, reflecting numerous lessons learned from 2019 and 2022. Daily measurements were taken more than 10 times at each site, resulting in a comprehensive time series of snow conditions and albedo. The team deployed using snowmachines and then on foot when snowmachine travel was no longer permitted on the melting tundra. Instrument mounts and packaging were optimized for quick deployment, regardless of the mode of transportation.
The impacts of climate change on natural ecosystems are the result of complex physical and ecological processes operating and interacting at a variety of spatio-temporal scales, that can be represented in process-based ecosystem models. DVMDOSTEM is an advanced process-based terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM) designed to study ecosystem responses to climate changes and disturbances. It has a particular focus on permafrost regions (i.e. regions characterized by soils that stay partially frozen all year round for at least two consecutive years), encompassing boreal, arctic, and alpine landscapes. The model couples two previous versions of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) (McGuire et al., 1992): DVMTEM that includes a dynamic vegetation module (DVM) (E. S. Euskirchen et al., 2009), and DOSTEM that includes a dynamic organic soil module (DOS) (H. Genet et al., 2013; Yi et al., 2010). DVMDOSTEM simulates processes at yearly and monthly scales, with some physical processes operating at an even finer temporal resolution. Its versatility allows for site-specific to regional simulations, making it valuable for predicting shifts in permafrost, vegetation, and carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics. While DVMDOSTEM has been described in the methods sections of many manuscripts, this paper is the first stand alone description of DVMDOSTEM, independent of a particular scientific investigation.