Integrated modeling of human-earth system interactions: An application of GCAM-fusion
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Hartin, Corinne↗
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Intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general circulation models
The present study provides an intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general circulation models. This intercomparison uses sea surface temperature change as a surrogate for climate change. The interpretation of cloud-climate interactions is given special attention. A roughly threefold variation in one measure of global climate sensitivity is found among the 19 models. The important conclusion is that most of this variation is attributable to differences in the models' depiction of cloud feedback, a result that emphasizes the need for improvements in the treatment of clouds in these models if they are ultimately to be used as reliable climate predictors. It is further emphazied that cloud feedback is the consequence of all interacting physical and dynamical processes in a general circulation model. The result of these processes is to produce changes in temperature, moisture distribution, and clouds which are integrated into the radiative response termed cloud feedback.
Cess, R. D.↗
Stable adaptive control with reduced state feedback
Stability of model tracking adaptive control systems with reduced state feedback and measurement noise
Lindorff, D. P.↗
Internal variability of an energy-balance model with delayed albedo effects
A simple, deterministic energy-balance model with possible relevance to climatic variations on the time scale of glaciation cycles, is presented. The lag between ice-sheet extent and zonally-averaged temperature is modeled as a time delay in the ice-albedo feedback. The model exhibits self-sustained oscillations which are quasi-periodic or aperiodic in character. Fourier spectra of solutions have the features of many paleoclimatic records: peaks of variable height and width superimposed on a continuous, red-noise type background.
Bhattacharya, K.↗
Acoustic characteristics and dynamic structural loading of an ASTOVL aircraft in hover
Measurements of surface dynamic loading and freestream acoustics were made for an ASTOVL model in hover, to quantify the effects of elevated temperature on the acoustic field and surface loading. Data were acquired for a many combinations of operating parameters: model height above the ground plane, nozzle pressure ratio, and jet exit stagnation temperature. For many conditions, strong tones were observed, with amplitudes up to 150 dB. The frequencies of the strongest tones were well predicted by a model assuming feedback between the nozzle exit and the ground plane. The model also accounts for many of the variations in frequency observed with changes in model height, nozzle pressure ratio, and jet temperature. Broadband sound pressure levels up to 170 dB were also recorded. The maximum levels occurred at approximately 3 equivalent jet diameters above the ground plane. For the majority of the cases, the increase in noise due to temperature was less than expected based on free jet correlations.
Mitchell, L. K.↗
Passivity/Lyapunov based controller design for trajectory tracking of flexible joint manipulators
A passivity and Lyapunov based approach for the control design for the trajectory tracking problem of flexible joint robots is presented. The basic structure of the proposed controller is the sum of a model-based feedforward and a model-independent feedback. Feedforward selection and solution is analyzed for a general model for flexible joints, and for more specific and practical model structures. Passivity theory is used to design a motor state-based controller in order to input-output stabilize the error system formed by the feedforward. Observability conditions for asymptotic stability are stated and verified. In order to accommodate for modeling uncertainties and to allow for the implementation of a simplified feedforward compensation, the stability of the system is analyzed in presence of approximations in the feedforward by using a Lyapunov based robustness analysis. It is shown that under certain conditions, e.g., the desired trajectory is varying slowly enough, stability is maintained for various approximations of a canonical feedforward.
Sicard, Pierre↗
Evaluating Cloud Feedback Components in Observations and Their Representation in Climate Models
This study quantifies the contribution of individual cloud feedbacks to the total short-term cloud feedback in satellite observations over the period 2002–2014 and evaluates how they are represented in climate models. The observed positive total cloud feedback is primarily due to positive high-cloud altitude, extratropical high- and low-cloud optical depth, and land cloud amount feedbacks partially offset by negative tropical marine low-cloud feedback. Seventeen models from the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project of the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project are analyzed. The models generally reproduce the observed moderate positive short-term cloud feedback. However, compared to satellite estimates, the models are systematically high-biased in tropical marine low-cloud and land cloud amount feedbacks and systematically low-biased in high-cloud altitude and extratropical high- and low-cloud optical depth feedbacks. Errors in modeled short-term cloud feedback components identified in this analysis highlight the need for improvements in model simulations of the response of high clouds and tropical marine low clouds. Our results suggest that skill in simulating interannual cloud feedback components may not indicate skill in simulating long-term cloud feedback components.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Sliding-Mode Control Applied for Robust Control of a Highly Unstable Aircraft
An investigation into the application of an observer based sliding mode controller for robust control of a highly unstable aircraft and methods of compensating for actuator dynamics is performed. After a brief overview of some reconfigurable controllers, sliding mode control (SMC) is selected because of its invariance properties and lack of need for parameter identification. SMC is reviewed and issues with parasitic dynamics, which cause system instability, are addressed. Utilizing sliding manifold boundary layers, the nonlinear control is converted to a linear control and sliding manifold design is performed in the frequency domain. An additional feedback form of model reference hedging is employed which is similar to a prefilter and has large benefits to system performance. The effects of inclusion of actuator dynamics into the designed plant is heavily investigated. Multiple Simulink models of the full longitudinal dynamics and wing deflection modes of the forward swept aero elastic vehicle (FSAV) are constructed. Additionally a linear state space models to analyze effects from various system parameters. The FSAV has a pole at +7 rad/sec and is non-minimum phase. The use of 'model actuators' in the feedback path, and varying there design, is heavily investigated for the resulting effects on plant robustness and tolerance to actuator failure. The use of redundant actuators is also explored and improved robustness is shown. All models are simulated with severe failure and excellent tracking, and task dependent handling qualities, and low pilot induced oscillation tendency is shown.
Vetter, Travis Kenneth↗
A new model for stability analysis in systems with pulse frequency modulators
Neural pulse frequency modulation system stability, using feedback control model
Monopoli, R. V.↗
Multi‐Model Ensembles in Ecosystem Modeling: Challenges and Best Practices for Decision‐Making
Ecosystem models are increasingly central to the decision-making for environmental policy, conservation planning, and climate-related investments. Yet, the growing reliance on Multi-Model Ensembles (MMEs) of ecosystem models by practitioners and policymakers, sometimes under tight timelines and imperfect information, has frequently outpaced the scientific rigor required to ensure ensemble reliability. Here, MMEs refer to approaches that combine targeted predictions from multiple models with the expectation of improving robustness and quantifying predictive uncertainty. Poorly designed MMEs may create a false sense of confidence and lead to suboptimal policy and market decisions. This perspective argues that robust decision-making-relevant MMEs must be grounded on two pillars: (1) rigorous Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs), which identify inter-model agreement and disagreement, characterize model uncertainties, and evaluate robustness with observationally based benchmarks—MIPs' diagnostic evaluation is so critical that it must be needed to drive MME's decision in model selection and weighting, especially when only a limited number of models available; and (2) co-design by both stakeholders and scientists to ensure that scenarios, metrics and uncertainty requirements provide decision-relevant information. Building upon the past success and lessons from the existing MIPs-MMEs efforts (e.g., climate/Earth system/crop), we derived the theoretical basis for MMEs, addressed their specific challenges in ecosystem modeling, and highlighted proper consideration of model numbers and diversity, risk of model inter-dependence, effective calibration of model parameters, possible overdue of some ecosystem model development, critical roles of open benchmark data across a wide range of conditions, and suggested use of Artificial Intelligence to support MIPs-MMEs. We highlighted the under-recognized opportunity for MIPs and MMEs to drive scientific progress and innovation through identifying better performing models, systematic benchmarking, feedback loops, and targeted model improvement. By following actionable best practice guidelines, MMEs can evolve from ad hoc aggregation of models into a trusted backbone of environmental policy and decision-making.
ecosystem modeling↗
Supervisory autonomous local-remote control system design: Near-term and far-term applications
The JPL Supervisory Telerobotics Laboratory (STELER) has developed a unique local-remote robot control architecture which enables management of intermittent bus latencies and communication delays such as those expected for ground-remote operation of Space Station robotic systems via the TDRSS communication platform. At the local site, the operator updates the work site world model using stereo video feedback and a model overlay/fitting algorithm which outputs the location and orientation of the object in free space. That information is relayed to the robot User Macro Interface (UMI) to enable programming of the robot control macros. The operator can then employ either manual teleoperation, shared control, or supervised autonomous control to manipulate the object under any degree of time-delay. The remote site performs the closed loop force/torque control, task monitoring, and reflex action. This paper describes the STELER local-remote robot control system, and further describes the near-term planned Space Station applications, along with potential far-term applications such as telescience, autonomous docking, and Lunar/Mars rovers.
Zimmerman, Wayne↗
The Relative Importance of Forced and Unforced Temperature Patterns in Driving the Time Variation of Low-Cloud Feedback
Abstract Atmospheric models forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) suggest a trend toward a more-stabilizing cloud feedback in recent decades, partly due to the surface cooling trend in the eastern Pacific (EP) and the warming trend in the western Pacific (WP). Here, we show model evidence that the low-cloud feedback has contributions from both forced and unforced feedback components and that its time variation arises in large part through changes in the relative importance of the two over time, rather than through variations in forced or unforced feedbacks themselves. Initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) suggest that the SST patterns are dominated by unforced variations for 30-yr windows ending prior to the 1980s. In general, unforced SSTs are representative of an ENSO-like pattern, which corresponds to weak low-level stability in the tropics and less-stabilizing low-cloud feedback. Since the 1980s, the forced signals have become stronger, outweighing the unforced signals for the 30-yr windows ending after the 2010s. Forced SSTs are characterized by relatively uniform warming with an enhancement in the WP, corresponding to a more-stabilizing low-cloud feedback in most cases. The time-evolving SST pattern due to this increasing importance of forced signals is the dominant contributor to the recent stabilizing shift of low-cloud feedback in the LEs. Using single-forcing LEs, we further find that if only greenhouse gases evolve with time, the transition to the domination of forced signals occurs 10–20 years earlier compared to the LEs with full forcings, which can be understood through the compensating effect between aerosols and greenhouse gases.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Dissecting the Roles of Stability and Dynamic Regimes in Tropical Cloud Feedbacks Simulated from an Upgraded Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF)
In this study, we analyze the tropical cloud feedback from a 2 K sea surface temperature perturbation experiment performed with a multiscale modeling framework (MMF). We sort the monthly-mean cloud and radiative properties according to circulation and stability regimes. It is found that the dynamic component of cloud feedback for a given dynamic regime dominates the thermodynamic component in terms of the absolute magnitude.
Kuan-Man Xu↗
Flexoelectricity and New Phenomena
It is easy to miss the scientific implications of our recent work on Triboelectricity. Everyone knows that rubbing and contact can produce static electricity; less appreciated is that the thermodynamic driver has been an open question since static electricity was first observed by Thales of Miletus around 585 BC. People think they understand it, for instance one common explanation that can still be found in the current literature is that differences in the work function drives charge transfer, often called the Volta-Helmholtz hypothesis. As summarized in 1967 by Harper, this fails to explain many experimental observations, for instance that charging can occur when two pieces of the same material are rubbed against each other. We are the first to place triboelectricity on a solid foundation rooted in quantum mechanics – the flexoelectric effect. We were able to explain a significant number of previously unexplained phenomena: 1) Bipolar tribocurrents associated with stick-slip, due to the change in sign of the strain gradients. 2) A one-third power scaling of tribocurrents with indentation force. 3) Tribocharging when two identical materials are used, these being due to local variations in the asperities so there are usually local potential differences. 4) Inhomogeneous charging of insulators, related to the statistical nature of asperities. 5) An experimentally observed reversal in the sign of charge transfer for negative and positive curvature, which is related to a change in the sign of the strain gradient. Exploiting our DOE prior funded work on flexoelectricity, we obtained semi-quantitative matching to existing experimental measurements of the surface charge in triboelectric experiments. The work has been well received in the literature. The work has been the focus of a number of popular science press articles, and also formed the basis for a Podcast for children 6-10 “The Rise and Fall of Static Man” posted in December 2019 by NPR as part of their “Wow in the World” series. I was also briefly interviewed by the Chicago PBS station in January 2020. This work are significant for a wide range of energy applications; to quote from an independent source: "Triboelectric power has plenty of potential, says Wenzhuo Wu, an assistant professor of engineering at Purdue. If the basics of static electricity are better understood, we could maximize the efficiency of wind or wave power generators, Wu says. The body's own movement could be used to power internal medical devices. Imagine being able to create a roof shaped to harness the power of a raindrop — the friction of the rain passing over the surface — to generate triboelectricity, powering the building below it." This is the start of new science, some of which we already partially understand such as the role of band bending in charge transfer. We need to understand charge transfer combining elasticity, quantum mechanics, band bending and defect states. These directly involve several of the DOE Grand Challenges: "How do we control material processes at the level of electrons? How do remarkable properties of matter emerge from complex correlations of the atomic or electronic constituents and how can we control these properties? How do we characterize and control matter away—especially very far away— from equilibrium?" I will argue that this work truly falls into the class of disruptive science; it is not just a simple extension, linear science. Not everyone will accept the approach. Since we explain far more about triboelectricity than anyone before, the preponderance of evidence supports the model. The feedback I have received is that many agree with the work, to quote: "The model makes sense, says Michael McAlpine, a professor of engineering at the University of Minnesota. "It's such a simple explanation, I was surprised I didn't put my finger on that," McAlpine says." The proposal received strong reviews. It was also publicized on the Department of Energy Web Site.
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
Sensory feedback in human posture control
Control model for sensory feedback in human posture control
Nashner, L. M.↗
Larger Cloud Liquid Water Enhances Both Aerosol Indirect Forcing and Cloud Radiative Feedback in Two Earth System Models
Previous studies have noticed that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models with a stronger cooling from aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) also have an enhanced warming from positive cloud feedback, and these two opposing effects are counter-balanced in simulations of the historical period. However, reasons for this anti-correlation are less explored. In this study, we perturb the cloud ice microphysical processes to obtain cloud liquid of varying amounts in two Earth System Models (ESMs). We find that the model simulations with a larger liquid water path (LWP) tend to have a stronger cooling from ACI and a stronger positive cloud feedback. More liquid clouds in the mean-state present more opportunities for anthropogenic aerosol perturbations and also weaken the negative cloud feedback at middle to high latitudes. This work, from a cloud state perspective, emphasizes the influence of the mean-state LWP on effective radiative forcing due to ACI (ERF ACI ).
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Hierarchical Feedback Decomposition of Steady-State Equation Models
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Hierarchical Feedback↗
Inter-Model Warming Projection Spread: Inherited Traits from Control Climate Diversity
Since Chaney’s report, the range of global warming projections in response to a doubling of CO2—from 1.5 °C to 4.5 °C or greater—remains largely unscathed by the onslaught of new scientific insights. Conventional thinking regards inter-model differences in climate feedbacks as the sole cause of the warming projection spread (WPS). Our findings shed new light on this issue indicating that climate feedbacks inherit diversity from the model control climate, besides the models’ intrinsic climate feedback diversity that is independent of the control climate state. Regulated by the control climate ice coverage, models with greater (lesser) ice coverage generally possess a colder (warmer) and drier (moister) climate, exhibit a stronger (weaker) ice-albedo feedback, and experience greater (weaker) warming. The water vapor feedback also inherits diversity from the control climate but in an opposite way: a colder (warmer) climate generally possesses a weaker (stronger) water vapor feedback, yielding a weaker (stronger) warming. These inherited traits influence the warming response in opposing manners, resulting in a weaker correlation between the WPS and control climate diversity. Our study indicates that a better understanding of the diversity amongst climate model mean states may help to narrow down the range of global warming projections.
Climate feedbacks↗