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At least 163 records · Page 9

The Potential Impact of Satellite-Retrieved Cloud Parameters on Ground-Level PM2.5 Mass and Composition

Satellite-retrieved aerosol optical properties have been extensively used to estimate ground-level fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations in support of air pollution health effects research and air quality assessment at the urban to global scales. However, a large proportion, approximately 70%, of satellite observations of aerosols are missing as a result of cloud-cover, surface brightness, and snow-cover. The resulting PM2.5 estimates could therefore be biased due to this non-random data missingness. Cloud-cover in particular has the potential to impact ground-level PM2.5 concentrations through complex chemical and physical processes. We developed a series of statistical models using the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) aerosol product at 1 km resolution with information from the MODIS cloud product and meteorological information to investigate the extent to which cloud parameters and associated meteorological conditions impact ground-level aerosols at two urban sites in the US: Atlanta and San Francisco. We find that changes in temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, planetary boundary layer height, convective available potential energy, precipitation, cloud effective radius, cloud optical depth, and cloud emissivity are associated with changes in PM2.5 concentration and composition, and the changes differ by overpass time and cloud phase as well as between the San Francisco and Atlanta sites. A case-study at the San Francisco site confirmed that accounting for cloud-cover and associated meteorological conditions could substantially alter the spatial distribution of monthly ground-level PM2.5 concentrations.

MAIAC AO↗

Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model: A Unified Tool from Local to Global Scales

We provide an introduction to a new high-resolution (0.25 degree) global composition forecast produced by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation office. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time forecasts of atmospheric composition at a horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (approximately 25 km). Previously, this combination of detailed chemistry and resolution was only provided by regional models. This system combines the operational GEOS-5 weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 11) to provide detailed chemical analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The resolution of the forecasts is the highest resolution compared to current, publically-available global composition forecasts. Evaluation and validation of modeled trace gases and aerosols compared to surface and satellite observations will be presented for constituents relative to health air quality standards. Comparisons of modeled trace gases and aerosols against satellite observations show that the model produces realistic concentrations of atmospheric constituents in the free troposphere. Model comparisons against surface observations highlight the model's capability to capture the diurnal variability of air pollutants under a variety of meteorological conditions. The GEOS-5 composition forecasting system offers a new tool for scientists and the public health community, and is being developed jointly with several government and non-profit partners. Potential applications include air quality warnings, flight campaign planning and exposure studies using the archived analysis fields.

Knowland, E. Emma↗

Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model

We provide an introduction to a new high-resolution (0.25 degree) global composition forecast produced by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation office. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time forecasts of atmospheric composition at a horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km). Previously, this combination of detailed chemistry and resolution was only provided by regional models. This system combines the operational GEOS-5 weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 11) to provide detailed chemical analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The resolution of the forecasts is the highest resolution compared to current, publically-available global composition forecasts. Evaluation and validation of modeled trace gases and aerosols compared to surface and satellite observations will be presented for constituents relative to health air quality standards. Comparisons of modeled trace gases and aerosols against satellite observations show that the model produces realistic concentrations of atmospheric constituents in the free troposphere. Model comparisons against surface observations highlight the model's capability to capture the diurnal variability of air pollutants under a variety of meteorological conditions. The GEOS-5 composition forecasting system offers a new tool for scientists and the public health community, and is being developed jointly with several government and non-profit partners. Potential applications include air quality warnings, flight campaign planning and exposure studies using the archived analysis fields.

Keller, Christoph A.↗

Global Premature Mortality Due to Anthropogenic Outdoor Air Pollution and the Contribution of Past Climate Change

Increased concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) since preindustrial times reflect increased emissions, but also contributions of past climate change. Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry–climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogenic outdoor air pollution on present-day premature human mortality, and the component of that burden attributable to past climate change. Using simulated concentrations for 2000 and 1850 and concentration–response functions (CRFs), we estimate that, at present, 470 000 (95% confidence interval, 140 000 to 900 000) premature respiratory deaths are associated globally and annually with anthropogenic ozone, and 2.1 (1.3 to 3.0) million deaths with anthropogenic PM2.5-related cardiopulmonary diseases (93%) and lung cancer (7%). These estimates are smaller than ones from previous studies because we use modeled 1850 air pollution rather than a counterfactual low concentration, and because of different emissions. Uncertainty in CRFs contributes more to overall uncertainty than the spread of model results. Mortality attributed to the effects of past climate change on air quality is considerably smaller than the global burden: 1500 (−20 000 to 27 000) deaths yr (exp -1) due to ozone and 2200 (−350 000 to 140 000) due to PM2.5. The small multi-model means are coincidental, as there are larger ranges of results for individual models, reflected in the large uncertainties, with some models suggesting that past climate change has reduced air pollution mortality.

human health↗

GEOS-CF Model Assessment of PM2.5 During Wildfires: Inferring the Impact of PM2.5 Exposure on Adverse Respiratory & Cardiovascular Conditions

Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) can aggravate pre-existing respiratory and cardiovascular conditions. When PM2.5 is inhaled it can cause damage to the lungs such as reduced lung function and shortness of breath. After being inhaled PM2.5 can enter the bloodstream and cause harm to the heart. One major natural source of PM2.5 exposure is from wildfire smoke. The particulates within the smoke from the wildfires can spread from the initial source region, potentially impacting communities both near and far. During and after wildfire events, PM2.5 levels can exceed the WHO air quality guidelines (10 gm^3 annual mean; 25 gm^3 daily mean), becoming hazardous to an individual's health. Global models can be used to simulate the emission and transport of these particulates and subsequently they can be valuable to air quality forecasting in highly polluted areas. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) version 5 Composition Forecast (GEOS-CF) system has been used to produce near-real time air quality forecasts of atmospheric composition at a high global resolution of 25 km. The GEOS-CF system utilizes the GEOS weather forecast model coupled with GEOS-Chem (version 11) chemistry module to provide analyses and forecasts of various toxic air pollutants, including PM2.5. The GEOS-CF simulated high levels of PM2.5 (40 gm^3 to 250 gm^3 ), exceeding the WHO guidelines, during multiple recent regional and global wildfire seasons, including the 2017 Seattle, WA and Los Angeles, CA wildfire seasons, and biomass burning events in India. Furthermore, the GEOS-CF simulated PM2.5 applied to a human health assessment model, BenMAP (The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, version 1.3), estimates the impact on adverse respiratory health conditions due to PM2.5 exposure from wildfires. The GEOS-CF predicted PM2.5 during the wildfire season with the corresponding BenMAP results provides an assessment of the human health impact of PM2.5 exposure.

Saunders, Emily↗

Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model

We provide an introduction to a new high-resolution (0.25 degree) global composition forecast produced by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation office. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time forecasts of atmospheric composition at a horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km). Previously, this combination of detailed chemistry and resolution was only provided by regional models. This system combines the operational GEOS-5 weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 11) to provide detailed chemical analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5).

Knowland, K. Emma↗

The Central Role of Air Quality Observations in NASA's GEOS Composition Forecasting Model

The NASA GEOS composition forecast model (GEOS-CF) provides global, high-resolution (25 km) air quality forecasts in near-real time. This system combines the operational GEOS-5 weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module to provide detailed chemical analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The resolution of the forecasts is the highest compared to current, publicly-available global composition forecasts.Air quality observations are an indispensable tool to evaluate the model's ability to capture the strong temporal and spatial gradients of air pollutants across the globe. We show how comparisons against near-real time observations available through OpenAQ (www.openaq.org) demonstrate the model's overall success in reproducing surface concentrations of ozone, nitrogen dioxide, and PM2.5. This analysis also helps identifying current limitations of the model, for example over South America. The model-observation mismatches are most likely caused by uncertainties in the emissions data. Using the example of Rio de Janeiro, we show how the model skill can be improved by using local, high-resolution emission inventories in combination with air quality data.

Keller, Christoph A.↗

Near Real-Time Global Composition Forecasts at 25km Horizontal Resolution

We present a new high-resolution global composition forecast system produced by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km). This composition forecast system (GEOS-CF) system combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Satellite observations are assimilated into the system for improved representation of weather and smoke.

Knowland, K. Emma↗

Near Real-Time Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model

We present a new high-resolution global composition forecast system produced by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km). This composition forecast system (GEOS-CF) system combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Satellite observations are assimilated into the system for improved representation of weather and smoke.

Knowland, K. Emma↗

Near Real-Time Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model

We present a new high-resolution global composition forecast system produced by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km). This composition forecast system (GEOS-CF) system combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Satellite observations are assimilated into the system for improved representation of weather and smoke.

Knowland, K. Emma↗

Air Pollution Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model: A Unified Tool from Local to Global Scales

We present a new high-resolution global composition forecast system produced by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km). This composition forecast system (GEOS-CF) system combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Satellite observations are assimilated into the system for improved representation of weather and smoke.

Knowland, K. Emma↗

The MERRA-2 Aerosol Reanalysis, 1980 Onward. Part II: Evaluation and Case Studies

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) is NASA’s latest reanalysis for the satellite era (1980-present) using the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) Earth system model. MERRA-2 provides several improvements over its predecessor (MERRA), including the inclusion of interactive aerosols for the entire period. In addition to assimilating bias-corrected Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua satellites, it also includes the assimilation of bias-corrected AOD from Advanced Very High Resolution Spectroradiometer (AVHRR) instruments, Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) AOD over bright surfaces, and ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) AOD. This paper is the second of a pair that summarizes our efforts to assess the quality of the MERRA-2 aerosol assimilation. In this study, we first follow previous work performed with version 1 of the MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis (MERRAero) using independent observations. The evaluation of MERRA-2 Absorption Aerosol Optical Depth (AAOD) and ultra-violet Aerosol Index (UV-AI) against the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) observations show good agreement, particularly over dusty regions where our previous efforts improved model aerosol optical properties. Next, we find that aerosol assimilation system improves the aerosol vertical structure when compared to estimates from the same version of the model without AOD assimilation. A similar conclusion is found for MERRA-2 aerosol surface fine particulate matter (PM (sub 2.5)). However, deficiencies in the forward model such as missing emissions noted during the MERRAero study still explain the MERRA-2 PM(sub 2.5) bias relative to observations over the United States. Finally, to illustrate successes and weaknesses of the AOD assimilation, we focus on the performance of the MERRA-2 aerosol system during several major aerosol events: the Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1991, a Saharan dust event and transportation over the Atlantic Ocean during April 2010, the Rim Fire of summer 2013 in California, and an extreme pollution event over China in January 2013. We conclude with a summary that points to best practices for utilizing the MERRA-2 aerosol reanalysis in future studies.

V Buchard↗

File Specification for GEOS-CF Products

The NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time forecasts of atmospheric composition at a horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (about 25 km). This GEOS Composition Forecast (GEOS-CF) system combines the GEOS weather analysis and forecasting system with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (Bey et al., 2001; Keller et al., 2014; Long et al., 2015) to provide detailed chemical analysis of a wide range of air pollutants including ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5).

Knowland, Katherine E.↗

Anthropogenic Control over Wintertime Oxidation of Atmospheric Pollutants

Anthropogenic air pollutants such as nitrogen oxides (NO(x) = NO + NO(2)), sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), and volatile organic compounds (VOC), among others, are emitted to the atmosphere throughout the year from energy production and use, transportation, and agriculture. These primary pollutants lead to the formation of secondary pollutants such as fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) and ozone (O(3)) and perturbations to the abundance and lifetimes of short-lived greenhouse gases. Free radical oxidation reactions driven by solar radiation govern the atmospheric lifetimes and transformations of most primary pollutants and thus their spatial distributions. During winter in the mid and high latitudes, where a large fraction of atmospheric pollutants are emitted globally, such photochemical oxidation is significantly slower. Using observations from a highly instrumented aircraft, we show that multi-phase reactions between gas-phase NO(x) reservoirs and aerosol particles, as well as VOC emissions from anthropogenic activities, lead to a suite of atypical radical precursors dominating the oxidizing capacity in polluted winter air, and thus, the distribution and fate of primary pollutants on a regional to global scale.

Haskins, J. D.↗

Application of Low-Cost Fine Particulate Mass Monitors to Convert Satellite Aerosol Optical Depth Measurements to Surface Concentrations in North America and Africa

Low-cost particulate mass sensors provide opportunities to assess air quality at unprecedented spatial and temporal resolutions. Established traditional monitoring networks have limited spatial resolution and are simply absent in many major cities across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Satellites provide snapshots of regional air pollution but require ground-truthing. Low-cost monitors can supplement and extend data coverage from these sources worldwide, providing a better overall air quality picture. We investigate the utility of such a multi-source data integration approach using two case studies. First, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, both traditional monitoring and dense low-cost sensor networks are compared with satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from NASA's MODIS system, and a linear conversion factor is developed to convert AOD to surface fine particulate matter mass concentration (as PM2.5). With 10 or more ground monitors in Pittsburgh, there is a 2-fold reduction in surface PM2.5 estimation mean absolute error compared to using only a single ground monitor. Second, we assess the ability of combined regional-scale satellite retrievals and local-scale low-cost sensor measurements to improve surface PM2.5 estimation at several urban sites in SSA. In Rwanda, we find that combining local ground monitoring information with satellite data provides a 40 % improvement in surface PM2.5 estimation accuracy with respect to using low-cost ground monitoring data alone. A linear AOD-to-surface-PM2.5 conversion factor developed in Kigali, Rwanda, did not generalize well to other parts of SSA and varied seasonally for the same location, emphasizing the need for ongoing and localized ground-based monitoring, which can be facilitated by low-cost sensors. Overall, we find that combining ground-based low-cost sensor and satellite data, even without including additional meteorological or land use information, can improve and expand spatiotemporal air quality data coverage, especially in data-sparse regions.

AOD↗

Climate and air quality impacts due to mitigation of non-methane near-term climate forcers

It is important to understand how future environmental policies will impact both climate change and air pollution. Although targeting near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), defined here as aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and precursor gases, should improve air quality, NTCF reductions will also impact climate. Prior assessments of the impact of NTCF mitigation on air quality and climate have been limited. This is related to the idealized nature of some prior studies, simplified treatment of aerosols and chemically reactive gases, as well as a lack of a sufficiently large number of models to quantify model diversity and robust responses. Here, we quantify the 2015–2055 climate and air quality effects of non-methane NTCFs using nine state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model simulations conducted for the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). Simulations are driven by two future scenarios featuring similar increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs) but with “weak” (SSP3-7.0) versus “strong” (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) levels of air quality control measures. As SSP3-7.0 lacks climate policy and has the highest levels of NTCFs, our results (e.g., surface warming) represent an upper bound. Unsurprisingly, we find significant improvements in air quality under NTCF mitigation (strong versus weak air quality controls). Surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) decrease by −2.2±0.32 µg m−3 and −4.6±0.88 ppb, respectively (changes quoted here are for the entire 2015–2055 time period; uncertainty represents the 95 % confidence interval), over global land surfaces, with larger reductions in some regions including south and southeast Asia. Non-methane NTCF mitigation, however, leads to additional climate change due to the removal of aerosol which causes a net warming effect, including global mean surface temperature and precipitation increases of 0.25±0.12 K and 0.03±0.012 mm d−1, respectively. Similarly, increases in extreme weather indices, including the hottest and wettest days, also occur. Regionally, the largest warming and wetting occurs over Asia, including central and north Asia (0.66±0.20 K and 0.03±0.02 mm d−1), south Asia (0.47±0.16 K and 0.17±0.09 mm d−1), and east Asia (0.46±0.20 K and 0.15±0.06 mm d−1). Relatively large warming and wetting of the Arctic also occur at 0.59±0.36 K and 0.04±0.02 mm d−1, respectively. Similar surface warming occurs in model simulations with aerosol-only mitigation, implying weak cooling due to ozone reductions. Our findings suggest that future policies that aggressively target non-methane NTCF reductions will improve air quality but will lead to additional surface warming, particularly in Asia and the Arctic. Policies that address other NTCFs including methane, as well as carbon dioxide emissions, must also be adopted to meet climate mitigation goals.

Climate↗

First Measurements of Ambient PM2.5 in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo and Brazzaville, Republic of Congo Using Field-calibrated Low-cost Sensors

Estimates of air pollution mortality in sub-Saharan Africa are limited by a lack of surface observations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Despite being large metropolises, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), population 14.3 million, and Brazzaville, Republic of the Congo (ROC), population 2.4 million, have no reference air pollution monitors at the time of writing. Recently, a few reference monitors have been deployed in other parts of sub-Saharan Africa, including Kampala, Uganda. A low-cost PurpleAir PM2.5 monitor was collocated next to the Kampala US Embassy BAM-1020 (Met One Beta Attenuation Monitor) starting in August 2019. Raw PurpleAir data are strongly correlated with the BAM (r(exp 2) = 0.88), but have a mean absolute error of approximately 14 μg/cu.m. Two calibration models, multiple linear regression and a random forest approach, decrease mean absolute error (MAE) from 14.3 μg/cu.m to 3.4 µg/cu.m or less and improve the the r(exp 2) from 0.88 to 0.96. Given )the similarity in climate and emissions in Kampala, we apply the collocated field correction factors to four PurpleAir sensors in Kinshasa, DRC and one in neighboring Brazzaville, ROC deployed beginning April 2018. Annual average PM2.5 for 2019 in Kinshasa is estimated at 43.5 µg/cu.m, more than 4 times higher than WHO Interim Target 1 of 10 µg/cu.m. Surface PM2.5 and aerosol optical depth were each about 40% lower during the 2020 COVID19 lockdown period compared to the same time period in 2019, which cannot be explained by changes in meteorology or wildfire emissions alone. Our results highlight the need for clean air solutions implementation in the Congo.

Celeste McFarlane↗

Long-range Transport of Siberian Biomass Burning Emissions to North America During FIREX-AQ

Biomass burning from wildfires is a significant global source of aerosol and trace gases which impact air quality, tropospheric and stratospheric composition, and climate. During the summer of 2019, wildfire activity in central and eastern Siberia occurred during the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) campaign conducted between July 24 and September 6, 2019. Ground-based lidar observations from the Autonomous Mobile Ozone Lidar for Tropospheric Experiments (AMOLITE) system in Alberta, Canada retrieved frequent anomalous ozone (O3) and aerosol lamina in the troposphere and lower stratosphere during this campaign. Data from NASA’s GEOS Composition Forecast (GEOS-CF) coupled chemistry meteorology model, TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO), and ground-based insitu data were used to define the trans-Pacific and trans-Arctic transport pathway of Siberian biomass burning emissions resulting in the enhanced O3 and aerosol lamina observed by AMOLITE in western Canada. Siberian wildfires impacted North American air quality resulting in enhancements of hourly-averaged surface carbon monoxide (CO) (total CO >150 ppb) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) (>20 μg m-3) in western Canada, however, minimal increases in surface-level O3 were measured as well as modeled by GEOS-CF. The impact in western Canada due to Siberian wildfires was much larger in the free troposphere, demonstrated by GEOS-CF and AMOLITE O3 lamina 30–40 ppb above background values and model-predicted PM2.5 lamina >30 μg m-3. In addition to tropospheric composition effects, the large wildfire activity in Siberia may have influenced the stratosphere as data from AMOLITE, CALIPSO, and GEOS-CF all suggested aerosol layers from the fires were located 13–18 km above ground level (agl). This study shows that the Siberian biomass burning emissions in the summer of 2019 impacted tropospheric/stratospheric composition in western Canada, and potentially could have influenced areas in the vicinity of FIREX-AQ airborne measurements, and future studies of FIREX-AQ chemical composition should consider how this long-range transport could have influenced the background trace gas and aerosol concentrations being investigated.

Biomass↗