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NASA NTRS2014

NLDAS Views of North American 2011 Extreme Events

2011 was marked as one of the most extreme years in recent history. Over the course of the year, weather-related extreme events, such as floods, heat waves, blizzards, tornadoes, and wildfires, caused tremendous loss of human life and property. The North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS, http:ldas.gsfc.nasa.govnldas) data set, with high spatial and temporal resolutions (0.125 x 0.125, hourly) and various water- and energy-related variables, is an excellent data source for case studies of extreme events. This presentation illustrates some extreme events from 2011 in North America, including the Groundhog Day Blizzard, the July heat wave, Hurricane Irene, and Tropical Storm Lee, all utilizing NLDAS Phase 2 (NLDAS-2) data.

hydrology↗
NASA NTRS2012

NLDAS Views of North American 2011 Extreme Events

2011 was marked as one of the most extreme years in recent history. Over the course of the year, weather-related extreme events, such as floods, heat waves, blizzards, tornadoes, and wildfires, caused tremendous loss of human life and property. The North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS, http://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov/nldas/) data set, with high spatial and temporal resolutions (0.125? x 0.125?, hourly) and various water- and energy-related variables, is an excellent data source for case studies of extreme events. This presentation illustrates some extreme events from 2011 in North America, including the Groundhog Day Blizzard, the July heat wave, Hurricane Irene, and Tropical Storm Lee, all utilizing NLDAS Phase 2 (NLDAS-2) data.

Rui, Hualan↗
NASA NTRS2007

TRMM's Contribution to Our Knowledge of Climatology, Storms and Floods

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has successfully completed nearly ten years in orbit. A brief review of the history and accomplishments of this joint mission between the U.S. and Japan is presented. Research highlights will focus on the seasonal cycle of a TRMM-based rainfall climatology, which takes advantage of the multiple rain estimates available from TRMM. Examples will be given of the use of TRMM data to diagnose the impact of man on precipitation patterns through urbanization and the effect of pollution. Use of TRMM data for tropical cyclone operational analysis in the U.S. will also be shown. Methods for generating 3-hourly rainfall information from multiple satellites using TRMM to calibrate all the information will be described as will application of such information to study extreme rainfall events and associated floods and landslides. These results will emphasize the breadth of science success achieved with the 10-year record of observations from the only rain radar and passive microwave instrument combination in space. The outlook for continued operation of the TRMM satellite and progress in TRMM science and applications will be addressed.

Adler, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2023

An Urban Drainage Scheme for Large-Scale Flood Models

As flood modeling spatial resolutions get finer, physical processes normally neglected, such as urban drainage, must be accounted for. Here, we describe and evaluate an urban drainage scheme for large-scale flood models. The parameterization accounts for urban imperviousness, and water flow over streets and through a prescribed urban drainage network. A parameter sensitivity analysis is performed during three major extreme floods over Rio de Janeiro city, Brazil, at ∼200 m spatial resolution. Results show that, compared to a hypothetical case without urban drainage, representing a drainage network decreases urban flooding during selected extreme events across Rio de Janeiro by 31–53 %. Such a decrease is caused by an underground water storage of up to 2.5 billion m3 across the city during flood peaks. Underground water storage and transport smooth out and delay peak flows by a few hours over major rivers and channels draining the city. Simulations also indicate that the number of residents exposed to flooding drops by 60–80 %, from ∼5 million to 1–2 million, when an urban drainage system is considered during extreme events. Similar proportions are found for social infrastructure (i.e., schools and hospitals) exposed to flooding. Results reveal that racial minority and low-income populations could disproportionally be exposed to extreme floodings across the city. We conclude that representing urban drainage has a substantial impact on flood exposure and should be accounted for in fine resolution modeling. The proposed scheme is particularly useful in poorly monitored cities and where extreme floods are a frequent hazard yet to be tackled.

Urban drainage↗
NASA NTRS1988

Flood basalts and mass extinctions

There appears to be a correlation between the times of flood basalts and mass-extinction events. There is a correlation of flood basalts and hotspot tracks--flood basalts appear to mark the beginning of a new hotspot. Perhaps there is an initial instability in the mantle that bursts forth as a flood basalt but then becomes a steady trickle that persists for many tens of millions of years. Suppose that flood basalts and not impacts cause the environmental changes that lead to mass-extinctions. This is a very testable hypothesis: it predicts that the ages of the flows should agree exactly with the times of extinctions. The Deccan and K-T ages agree with this hypothesis; An iridium anomaly at extinction boundaries apparently can be explained by a scaled-up eruption of the Hawaiian type; the occurrence of shocked-quartz is more of a problem. However if the flood basalts are all well dated and their ages indeed agree with extinction times, then surely some mechanism to appropriately produce shocked-quartz will be found.

Morgan, W. Jason↗
NASA NTRS2012

Information Systems Coordinate Emergency Management

The rescue crews have been searching for the woman for nearly a week. Hurricane Katrina devastated Hancock County, the southernmost point in Mississippi, and the woman had stayed through the storm in her beach house. There is little hope of finding her alive; the search teams know she is gone because the house is gone. Late at night in the art classroom of the school that is serving as the county s emergency operations center, Craig Harvey is discussing the search with the center s commander. Harvey is the Chief Operating Officer of a unique company called NVision Solutions Inc., based at NASA s Stennis Space Center in Bay St. Louis, only a couple of miles away. He and his entire staff have set up a volunteer operation in the art room, supporting the emergency management efforts using technology and capabilities the company developed through its NASA partnerships. As he talks to the commander, Harvey feels an idea taking shape that might lead them to the woman s location. Working with surface elevation data and hydrological principles, Harvey creates a map showing how the floodwaters from the storm would have flowed along the topography of the region around the woman s former home. Using the map, search crews find the woman s body in 15 minutes. Recovering individuals who have been lost is a sad reality of emergency management in the wake of a disaster like Hurricane Katrina in 2005. But the sooner answers can be provided, the sooner a community s overall recovery can take place. When damage is extensive, resources are scattered, and people are in dire need of food, shelter, and medical assistance, the speed and efficiency of emergency operations can be the key to limiting the impact of a disaster and speeding the process of recovery. And a key to quick and effective emergency planning and response is geographic information. With a host of Earth-observing satellites orbiting the globe at all times, NASA generates an unmatched wealth of data about our ever-changing planet. This information can be captured, analyzed, and visualized by geographic information systems (GIS) to produce maps, charts, and other tools that can reveal information essential to a wide variety of applications including emergency management. Knowing precise, real-time information about the size, location, environmental conditions, and resulting damage of an event like a flood or wildfire as well as the location and numbers of emergency responders and other resources contributes directly to the effectiveness of disaster mitigation. The need for such information is also evident when responding to homeland security threats, such as a terrorist attack. Recognizing the value of its geospatial information resources for this and other purposes, in 1998 Stennis and the state of Mississippi partnered to form what became the Enterprise for Innovative Geospatial Solutions (EIGS) industry cluster, supporting the growth of remote sensing and GIS-based research and business. As part of EIGS, several companies partnered with NASA through dual use and Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contracts. Among those was NVision.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2012

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Mission - Science and Data Product Development Status

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, planned for launch in late 2014, has the objective of frequent, global mapping of near-surface soil moisture and its freeze-thaw state. The SMAP measurement system utilizes an L-band radar and radiometer sharing a rotating 6-meter mesh reflector antenna. The instruments will operate on a spacecraft in a 685 km polar orbit with 6am/6pm nodal crossings, viewing the surface at a constant 40-degree incidence angle with a 1000-km swath width, providing 3-day global coverage. Data from the instruments will yield global maps of soil moisture and freeze/thaw state at 10 km and 3 km resolutions, respectively, every two to three days. The 10-km soil moisture product will be generated using a combined radar and radiometer retrieval algorithm. SMAP will also provide a radiometer-only soil moisture product at 40-km spatial resolution and a radar-only soil moisture product at 3-km resolution. The relative accuracies of these products will vary regionally and will depend on surface characteristics such as vegetation water content, vegetation type, surface roughness, and landscape heterogeneity. The SMAP soil moisture and freeze/thaw measurements will enable significantly improved estimates of the fluxes of water, energy and carbon between the land and atmosphere. Soil moisture and freeze/thaw controls of these fluxes are key factors in the performance of models used for weather and climate predictions and for quantifYing the global carbon balance. Soil moisture measurements are also of importance in modeling and predicting extreme events such as floods and droughts. The algorithms and data products for SMAP are being developed in the SMAP Science Data System (SDS) Testbed. In the Testbed algorithms are developed and evaluated using simulated SMAP observations as well as observational data from current airborne and spaceborne L-band sensors including data from the SMOS and Aquarius missions. We report here on the development status of the SMAP data products. The Testbed simulations are designed to capture various sources of errors in the products including environment effects, instrument effects (nonideal aspects of the measurement system), and retrieval algorithm errors. The SMAP project has developed a Calibration and Validation (Cal/Val) Plan that is designed to support algorithm development (pre-launch) and data product validation (post-launch). A key component of the Cal/Val Plan is the identification, characterization, and instrumentation of sites that can be used to calibrate and validate the sensor data (Level l) and derived geophysical products (Level 2 and higher).

Nloku, E.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Quantifying Surface Water Dynamics at 30 Meter Spatial Resolution in the North American High Northern Latitudes 1991-2011

The availability of a dense time series of satellite observations at moderate (30 m) spatial resolution is enabling unprecedented opportunities for understanding ecosystems around the world. A time series of data from Landsat was used to generate a series of three maps at decadal time step to show how surface water has changed from 1991 to 2011 in the high northern latitudes of North America. Previous attempts to characterize the change in surface water in this region have been limited in either spatial or temporal resolution, or both. This series of maps was generated for the NASA Arctic and Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE), which began in fall 2015. These maps show a nominal extent of surface water by using multiple observations to make a single map for each time step. This increases the confidence that any detected changes are related to climate or ecosystem changes not simply caused by short duration weather events such as flood or drought. The methods and comparison to other contemporary maps of the region are presented here. Initial verification results indicate 96% producer accuracy and 54% user accuracy when compared to 2-m resolution World View-2 data. All water bodies that were omitted were one Landsat pixel or smaller, hence below detection limits of the instrument.

Carroll, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2020

Exploring Spatiotemporal Relations Between Soil Moisture, Precipitation, and Streamflow for a Large Set of Watersheds Using Google Earth Engine

An understanding of streamflow variability and its response to changes in climate conditions is essential for water resource planning and management practices that will help to mitigate the impacts of extreme events such as floods and droughts on agriculture and other human activities. This study investigated the relationship between precipitation, soil moisture, and streamflow over a wide range of watersheds across the United States using Google Earth Engine (GEE). The correlation analyses disclosed a strong association between precipitation, soil moisture, and streamflow, however, soil moisture was found to have a higher correlation with the streamflow relative to precipitation. Results indicated different strength of the association depends on the watershed classes and lag times assessments. The perennial watersheds showed higher coherence compared to intermittent watersheds. Previous month precipitation and soil moisture have a stronger influence on the current month streamflow, particularly in the snow-dominated watersheds. Monthly streamflow forecasting models were developed using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector machine (SVM). The results showed that the SVM model generally performed better than the ARIMA model. Overall streamflow forecasting model performance varied considerably among watershed classes, and perennial watersheds tend to exhibit better predictably compared to intermittent watersheds due to lower streamflow variability. The SVM models with precipitation and streamflow inputs performed better than those with streamflow input only. Results indicated that the inclusion of antecedent root-zone soil moisture improved the streamflow forecasting in most of the watersheds, and the largest improvements occurred in the intermittent watersheds. In conclusion, this work demonstrated that knowing the relationship between precipitation, soil moisture, and streamflow in different watershed classes will enhance the understanding of the hydrologic process and can be effectively utilized in improving streamflow forecasting for better satellite-based water resource management strategies.

Nazmus Sazib↗
NASA NTRS1993

Major episodes of geologic change - Correlations, time structure and possible causes

Published data sets of major geologic events of the past about 250 Myr (extinction events, sea-level lows, continental flood-basalt eruptions, mountain-building events, abrupt changes in sea-floor spreading, ocean-anoxic and blackshale events and the largest evaporite deposits) have been synthesized (with estimated errors). These events show evidence for a statistically significant periodic component with an underlying periodicity, formally equal to 26.6 Myr, and a recent maximum, close to the present time. The cycle may not be strictly periodic, but a periodicity of about 30 Myr is robust to probable errors in dating of the geologic events. The intervals of geologic change seem to involve jumps in sea-floor spreading associated with episodic continental rifting, volcanism, enhanced orogeny, global sea-level changes and fluctuations in climate. The period may represent a purely internal earth-pulsation, but evidence of planetesimal impacts at several extinction boundaries, and a possible underlying cycle of 28-36 Myr in crater ages, suggests that highly energetic impacts may be affecting global tectonics. A cyclic increase in the flux of planetesimals might result from the passage of the Solar System through the central plane of the Milky Way Galaxy - an event with a periodicity and mean phasing similar to that detected in the geologic changes.

Rampino, Michael R.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Interleaved Observation Execution and Rescheduling on Earth Observing Systems

Observation scheduling for Earth orbiting satellites solves the following problem: given a set of requests for images of the Earth, a set of instruments for acquiring those images distributed on a collecting of orbiting satellites, and a set of temporal and resource constraints, generate a set of assignments of instruments and viewing times to those requests that satisfy those constraints. Observation scheduling is often construed as a constrained optimization problem with the objective of maximizing the overall utility of the science data acquired. The utility of an image is typically based on the intrinsic importance of acquiring it (for example, its importance in meeting a mission or science campaign objective) as well as the expected value of the data given current viewing conditions (for example, if the image is occluded by clouds, its value is usually diminished). Currently, science observation scheduling for Earth Observing Systems is done on the ground, for periods covering a day or more. Schedules are uplinked to the satellites and are executed rigorously. An alternative to this scenario is to do some of the decision-making about what images are to be acquired on-board. The principal argument for this capability is that the desirability of making an observation can change dynamically, because of changes in meteorological conditions (e.g. cloud cover), unforeseen events such as fires, floods, or volcanic eruptions, or un-expected changes in satellite or ground station capability. Furthermore, since satellites can only communicate with the ground between 5% to 10% of the time, it may be infeasible to make the desired changes to the schedule on the ground, and uplink the revisions in time for the on-board system to execute them. Examples of scenarios that motivate an on-board capability for revising schedules include the following. First, if a desired visual scene is completely obscured by clouds, then there is little point in taking it. In this case, satellite resources, such as power and storage space can be better utilized taking another image that is higher quality. Second, if an unexpected but important event occurs (such as a fire, flood, or volcanic eruption), there may be good reason to take images of it, instead of expending satellite resources on some of the lower priority scheduled observations. Finally, if there is unexpected loss of capability, it may be impossible to carry out the schedule of planned observations. For example, if a ground station goes down temporarily, a satellite may not be able to free up enough storage space to continue with the remaining schedule of observations. This paper describes an approach for interleaving execution of observation schedules with dynamic schedule revision based on changes to the expected utility of the acquired images. We describe the problem in detail, formulate an algorithm for interleaving schedule revision and execution, and discuss refinements to the algorithm based on the need for search efficiency. We summarize with a brief discussion of the tests performed on the system.

Khatib, Lina↗
NASA NTRS2015

Using Dynamically Downscaled Climate Model Outputs to Inform Projections of Extreme Precipitation Events

Many of the storms that generate damaging floods are caused by locally intense, sub-daily precipitation, yet the spatial and temporal resolution of the most widely available climate model outputs are both too coarse to simulate these events. Thus there is often a disconnect between the nature of the events that cause damaging floods and the models used to project how climate change might influence their magnitude. This could be a particular problem when developing scenarios to inform future storm water management options under future climate scenarios. In this study we sought to close this gap, using sub-daily outputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) from each of the nine climate regions in the United States. Specifically, we asked 1) whether WRF outputs projected consistent patterns of change for sub-daily and daily precipitation extremes; and 2) whether this dynamically downscaled model projected different magnitudes of change for 3-hourly vs 24-hourly extreme events. We extracted annual maximum values for 3-hour through 24-hour precipitation totals from an 11-year time series of hindcast (1995-2005) and mid-century (2045-2055) climate, and calculated the direction and magnitude of change for 3-hour and 24-hour extreme events over this timeframe. The model results project that the magnitude of both 3-hour and 24-hour events will increase over most regions of the United States, but there was no clear or consistent difference in the relative magnitudes of change for sub-daily vs daily events.

Climate models↗
NASA NTRS1987

Material tradeoffs to minimize flooding reactivity

In the GE 100 KWe SP-100 design, the array of fuel pins in the core was surrounded by a thin neutron barrier made of a mixture of Nb-1 percent Zr and 20 percent B4C. The purpose of this barrier was to prevent the return to the reactor of thermalized neutrons in the event of a reactor flooding accident. Neutronically, the barrier produced a reduction in k sub eff of 15 percent. However, a mixture of Nb-1 percent Zr and B4C is a development item and may not be possible to produce. Several alternatives to this design were investigated. These include the use of W-26 percent Re for the fuel barrier and the introduction of fuel pin ducts made of Ta-8 percent W-2 percent Hf, Hf-10 percent Nb or pure Re. The use of W-26 percent Re for the fuel barrier material in place of W, and the use of T111, Hf-10 percent Nb, or Re duct material in place of Nb-1 percent Zr or Nb-1 percent Zr-20 percent B4C were found to substantially decrease k sub eff in the flooding situation. The best choice neutronically for duct material is Hf-10 percent Nb, because of its small impact on the k sub eff of the normal core.

Protsik, R.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Enhancing New York City's Resilience to Sea Level Rise and Increased Coastal Flooding

The large population and major economic assets along New York City's extensive waterfront face exposure to sea level rise (SLR) and coastal flooding. The New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), an advisory group of academic and private-sector experts, provides the city with scientific guidance on future climate risks. Here we highlight current NPCC research on sea level rise, coastal flooding, with some of the City's current and planned responses.Twentieth century SLR in New York City (2.8 cm/decade) exceeded the global average (1.2-1.9 cm/decade), underscoring a greater regional risk. In 2015, the NPCC projected a 2080s SLR of 46-99 cm relative to 2000-2004 (25th -75th percentile) at the Battery, with high-end SLR estimates (90th percentile) of 1.9 m by 2100. Growing evidence of potential instability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) suggests the possibility of even higher future sea levels. We therefore present a new low probability, yet high impact SLR scenario for New York City, which incorporates these ice sheet instabilities. The new SLR projections will be combined with coastal flood return period curves for the 100-year storm flood levels. Related ongoing research examines changes in storm characteristics, surge--sea level rise interactions, and mapping of neighborhoods at risk.Guided by NPCC findings, New York City undertakes programs to strengthen coastal defenses, tailored to specific neighborhood needs. NPCC in collaboration with the city, continues to investigate vulnerability to extreme climate events, such as inland floods and coastal storms, and to develop stronger links with community-based stakeholder groups. New York City's plans to enhance coastal urban resiliency stand as a model for other urban coastal centers as they prepare for climate change.

Gornitz, Vivien↗
NASA NTRS2010

Investigation of the 2006 Drought and 2007 Flood Extremes at the Southern Great Plains Through an Integrative Analysis of Observations

Hydrological years 2006 (HY06, 10/2005-09/2006) and 2007 (HY07, 10/2006-09/2007) provide a unique opportunity to examine hydrological extremes in the central US because there are no other examples of two such highly contrasting precipitation extremes occurring in consecutive years at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) in recorded history. The HY06 annual precipitation in the state of Oklahoma, as observed by the Oklahoma Mesonet, is around 61% of the normal (92.84 cm, based on the 1921-2008 climatology), which results in HY06 the second-driest year in the record. In particular, the total precipitation during the winter of 2005-06 is only 27% of the normal, and this winter ranks as the driest season. On the other hand, the HY07 annual precipitation amount is 121% of the normal and HY07 ranks as the seventh-wettest year for the entire state and the wettest year for the central region of the state. Summer 2007 is the second-wettest season for the state. Large-scale dynamics play a key role in these extreme events. During the extreme dry period (10/2005-02/2006), a dipole pattern in the 500-hPa GH anomaly existed where an anomalous high was over the southwestern U.S. region and an anomalous low was over the Great Lakes. This pattern is associated with inhibited moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico and strong sinking motion over the SGP, both contributing to the extreme dryness. The precipitation deficit over the SGP during the extreme dry period is clearly linked to significantly suppressed cyclonic activity over the southwestern U.S., which shows robust relationship with the Western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern. The precipitation events during the extreme wet period (May-July 2007) were initially generated by active synoptic weather patterns, linked with moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico by the northward low level jet, and enhanced by the mesoscale convective systems. Although the drought and pluvial conditions are dominated by large-scale dynamic patterns, we have demonstrated that the two positive feedback processes during the extreme dry and wet periods found in this study play a key role to maintain and reinforce the length and severity of existing drought and flood events. For example, during the extreme dry period, with less clouds, LWP, PWV, precipitation, and thinner Cu cloud thickness, more net radiation was absorbed and used to evaporate water from the ground. The evaporated moisture, however, was removed by low-level divergence. Thus, with less precipitation and removed atmospheric moisture, more absorbed incoming solar radiation was used to increase surface temperature and to make the ground drier.

Dong, Xiquan↗
NASA NTRS2005

An Expert System for Autonomous Spacecraft Control

The Autonomous Sciencecraft Experiment (ASE), part of the New Millennium Space Technology 6 Project, is flying onboard the Earth Orbiter 1 (EO-1) mission. The ASE software enables EO-1 to autonomously detect and respond to science events such as: volcanic activity, flooding, and water freeze/thaw. ASE uses classification algorithms to analyze imagery onboard to detect chang-e and science events. Detection of these events is then used to trigger follow-up imagery. Onboard mission planning software then develops a response plan that accounts for target visibility and operations constraints. This plan is then executed using a task execution system that can deal with run-time anomalies. In this paper we describe the autonomy flight software and how it enables a new paradigm of autonomous science and mission operations. We will also describe the current experiment status and future plans.

utonomy flight software↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Application of Hilbert-Huang Transforms to Meteorological Datasets

Recently a new spectral technique as been developed for the analysis of aperiodic and nonlinear signals - the Hilbert-Huang transform. This paper shows how these transforms can be used to discover synoptic and climatic features: For sea level data, the transforms capture the oceanic tides as well as large, aperiodic river outflows. In the case of solar radiation, we observe variations in the diurnal and seasonal cycles. Finally, from barographic data, the Hilbert-Huang transform reveals the passage of extratropical cyclones, fronts, and troughs. Thus, this technique can flag significant weather events such its a flood or the passage of a squall line.

Duffy, Dean G.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Integration of On-board EOS Schedule Revision with Space Communication Emulation System

The need for on-board decision-making for planning science observations on Earth Observing Satellites is based on the fact that the desirability of acquiring an image can change dynamically, because of changes in meteorological conditions (e.g. cloud cover), unforeseen events such as fires, floods, or volcanic eruptions, or unexpected changes in satellite or ground station capability. In such cases, satellite resources, such as power and SSR capacity can potentially be better utilized taking another image that is of higher quality. Currently, typical Earth observing satellites cannot communicate directly with each other, and can only communicate with ground stations about 5% to 10% of the time. Because of the limited communication windows, as well as the cost and effort that would need to be expended in revising a mission schedule, a ground-based scheduler would have little or no opportunity to revise the schedule in response to the contingencies that may arise. For this reason, a distributed science planning system combining a ground-based scheduler with on-board schedule revision capabilities is warranted. This paper will describe algorithms for on-board decision-making for science planning and their integration with the advanced satellite control and communications technology developed at the Space Communication Emulation Facility (SCEF) at NASA Glenn Research Center. Our objective of demonstrating how advanced communications and scheduling technology can be combined to improve the scientific utility of images acquired by Earth observing systems will be discussed via a description of a number of realistic flight scenarios.

Khatib, Lina↗