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At least 163 records · Page 9

Modeling Climate-Biosphere Interactions in the Boreal Forest

The overall goal of this BOREAS Program was to develop, test, and apply a model of the carbon balance of boreal forest sites with a significant groundcover component (moss or lichen). The basic question addressed with this model was: What is the sensitivity of the boreal forest carbon balance to weather variability? More specifically: What are the differences in the sensitivities of carbon gains (photosynthesis) and carbon losses (respiration) of the various components of the ecosystem? Are there different seasonalities to their sensitivities (e.g., warmer springs will have one effect, warmer summers a different effect)? What are the effects of different patterns of successive weather years (wet/dry, warm/cool)? What, for example, would be the difference in effects of two "warmer than normal" months-one with each day warmer than normal, and the other with three normal weeks and one very hot week? Due to weather variability, how "noisy" will any carbon flux or carbon pool signal be that we might use to try to detect change? The project resulted in the development of a new boreal forest ecosystem model. This model was the first model in the BOREAS project to look closely at the role of mosses in the ecosystem carbon balance, and also was the first model in the BOREAS project to look closely at interannual variability in carbon fluxes. Along with the work of many other groups, TE-19 modeling analysis pointed to the need for a second, longer field season in 1996, with particular focus on the spring and fall transitions and on ground vegetation. BOREAS groups TE-19 (Frolking), TGB-1 (Crill) & TGB-3 (Moore & Roulet) analyzed BOREAS data and other published and unpublished data to develop a relationship between peatland ecosystem productivity and incoming radiation, which is quite distinct from the upland ecosystem relationships observed in other studies.

Frolking, Steve↗

Interpretable Machine Learning Models for Autonomous Characterization of Analogue Ocean World Seawater Chemistry and Biosignature Potential Using Isotope Ratio Data

Background: Future missions to ocean worlds, such as Enceladus and Europa, will attempt to characterize the subsurface seawater chemistry and assess the potential for life. Such missions will be equipped with capabilities to precisely measure volatile isotopes in plumes, atmospheres, and exospheres. Motivation: While large isotopic fractionations can indicate a biological source, there are signatures resulting from abiotic geochemical processes that mimic isotopic biosignatures. While machine learning (ML) has the potential to disentangle competing effects and biotic mimicry, high-dimensional isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) data is likely to contain noise/irrelevant features and involve complex statistical interactions that make human inference and interpretation difficult. Further, ML predictions with as far-reaching implications as an extraterrestrial biosignature on an ocean world requires the use of interpretable models (i.e., not “black box” models) with physically and mathematically meaningful feature spaces along with false positive diagnostics. Methods: We use volatile CO2 IRMS data of analogue ocean world seawaters to validate an ML approach to provide biogeochemical context for biosignature detection. We employ a feature selection method called nearest-neighbor projected distance regression (NPDR) that detects statistical interactions and helps elucidate the mechanisms of the Random Forest classification models. Results: We train and validate predictive ML models on volatile CO2 IRMS data of analogue ocean world seawaters to predict major salt components (e.g., MgSO4, NaHCO3), pH, ionic strength, and the presence of biosignatures. Features derived from IRMS measurements are augmented with extracted time-series features. Our results show high test accuracy and interpretability, which is increased by interaction network visualization, sample-wise variable importance scores, and single-sample class probability estimates. We demonstrate an ML mission software solution that triggers autonomous data transmission and biogeochemical sample prediction.

geochemistry↗

Seasat synthetic aperture radar /SAR/ response to lowland vegetation types in eastern Maryland and Virginia

Examination of Seasat SAR images of eastern Maryland and Virginia reveals botanical distinctions between vegetated lowland areas and adjacent upland areas. Radar returns from the lowland areas can be either brighter or darker than returns from the upland forests. Scattering models and scatterometer measurements predict an increase of 6 dB in backscatter from vegetation over standing water. This agrees with the 30-digital number (DN) increase observed in the digital Seasat data. The brightest areas in the Chickahominy, Virginia, drainage, containing P. virginica about 0.4 m high, contrast with the brightest areas in the Blackwater, Maryland, marshes, which contain mature loblolly pine in standing water. The darkest vegetated area in the Chickahominy drainage contains a forest of Nyssa aquatica (water tupelo) about 18 m high, while the darkest vegetated area in the Blackwater marshes contains the marsh plant Spartina alterniflora, 0.3 m high. The density, morphology, and relative geometry of the lowland vegetation with respect to standing water can all affect the strength of the return L band signal.

Krohn, M. D.↗

Optimization as a Tool for Consistency Maintenance in Multi-Resolution Simulation

The need for new approaches to the consistent simulation of related phenomena at multiple levels of resolution is great. While many fields of application would benefit from a complete and approachable solution to this problem, such solutions have proven extremely difficult. We present a multi-resolution simulation methodology that uses numerical optimization as a tool for maintaining external consistency between models of the same phenomena operating at different levels of temporal and/or spatial resolution. Our approach follows from previous work in the disparate fields of inverse modeling and spacetime constraint-based animation. As a case study, our methodology is applied to two environmental models of forest canopy processes that make overlapping predictions under unique sets of operating assumptions, and which execute at different temporal resolutions. Experimental results are presented and future directions are addressed.

TEMPORAL RESOLUTION↗

Converging Climate Sensitivities of European Forests Between Observed Radial Tree Growth and Vegetation Models

The impacts of climate variability and trends on European forests are unevenly distributed across different bioclimatic zones and species. Extreme climate events are also becoming more frequent and it is unknown how they will affect feed backs of CO2 between forest ecosystems and the atmosphere. An improved understanding of species differences at the regional scale of the response of forest productivity to climate variation and extremes is thus important for forecasting forest dynamics. In this study, we evaluate the climate sensitivity of above ground net primary production (NPP) simulated by two dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM; ORCHIDEE and LPJ-wsl) against tree ring width (TRW) observations from about1000 sites distributed across Europe. In both the model simulations and the TRW observations, forests in northern Europe and the Alps respond positively to warmer spring and summer temperature, and their overall temperature sensitivity is larger than that of the soil-moisture-limited forests in central Europe and Mediterranean regions. Compared with TRW observations, simulated NPP from ORCHIDEE and LPJ-wsl appear to be overly sensitive to climatic factors. Our results indicate that the models lack biological processes that control time lags, such as carbohydrate storage and remobilization, that delay the effects of radial growth dynamics to climate. Our study highlights the need for re-evaluating the physiological controls on the climate sensitivity of NPP simulated by DGVMs. In particular, DGVMs could be further enhanced by a more detailed representation of carbon reserves and allocation that control year-to year variation in plant growth.

Zhang, Zhen↗

Meta-Modeling: A Knowledge-Based Approach to Facilitating Model Construction and Reuse

In this paper, we introduce a new modeling approach called meta-modeling and illustrate its practical applicability to the construction of physically-based ecosystem process models. As a critical adjunct to modeling codes meta-modeling requires explicit specification of certain background information related to the construction and conceptual underpinnings of a model. This information formalizes the heretofore tacit relationship between the mathematical modeling code and the underlying real-world phenomena being investigated, and gives insight into the process by which the model was constructed. We show how the explicit availability of such information can make models more understandable and reusable and less subject to misinterpretation. In particular, background information enables potential users to better interpret an implemented ecosystem model without direct assistance from the model author. Additionally, we show how the discipline involved in specifying background information leads to improved management of model complexity and fewer implementation errors. We illustrate the meta-modeling approach in the context of the Scientists' Intelligent Graphical Modeling Assistant (SIGMA) a new model construction environment. As the user constructs a model using SIGMA the system adds appropriate background information that ties the executable model to the underlying physical phenomena under investigation. Not only does this information improve the understandability of the final model it also serves to reduce the overall time and programming expertise necessary to initially build and subsequently modify models. Furthermore, SIGMA's use of background knowledge helps eliminate coding errors resulting from scientific and dimensional inconsistencies that are otherwise difficult to avoid when building complex models. As a. demonstration of SIGMA's utility, the system was used to reimplement and extend a well-known forest ecosystem dynamics model: Forest-BGC.

Keller, Richard M.↗

Forest Disturbance Across the Conterminous United States from 1985-2012: The Emerging Dominance of Forest Decline

Evidence of shifting dominance among major forest disturbance agent classes regionally to globally has been emerging in the literature. For example, climate-related stress and secondary stressors on forests (e.g., insect and disease, fire) have dramatically increased since the turn of the century globally, while harvest rates in the western US and elsewhere have declined. For shifts to be quantified, accurate historical forest disturbance estimates are required as a baseline for examining current trends. We report annual disturbance rates (with uncertainties) in the aggregate and by major change causal agent class for the conterminous US and five geographic subregions between 1985 and 2012. Results are based on human interpretations of Landsat time series from a probability sample of 7200 plots (30 m) distributed throughout the study area. Forest disturbance information was recorded with a Landsat time series visualization and data collection tool that incorporates ancillary high-resolution data. National rates of disturbance varied between 1.5% and 4.5% of forest area per year, with trends being strongly affected by shifting dominance among specific disturbance agent influences at the regional scale. Throughout the time series, national harvest disturbance rates varied between one and two percent, and were largely a function of harvest in the more heavily forested regions of the US (Mountain West, Northeast, and Southeast). During the first part of the time series, national disturbance rates largely reflected trends in harvest disturbance. Beginning in the mid-90s, forest decline-related disturbances associated with diminishing forest health (e.g., physiological stress leading to tree canopy cover loss, increases in tree mortality above background levels), especially in the Mountain West and Lowland West regions of the US, increased dramatically. Consequently, national disturbance rates greatly increased by 2000, and remained high for much of the decade. Decline-related disturbance rates reached as high as 8% per year in the western regions during the early-2000s. Although low compared to harvest and decline, fire disturbance rates also increased in the early- to mid-2000s. We segmented annual decline-related disturbance rates to distinguish between newly impacted areas and areas undergoing gradual but consistent decline over multiple years. We also translated Landsat reflectance change into tree canopy cover change information for greater relevance to ecosystem modelers and forest managers, who can derive better understanding of forest-climate interactions and better adapt management strategies to changing climate regimes. Similar studies could be carried out for other countries where there are sufficient Landsat data and historic temporal snapshots of high-resolution imagery.

Cohen, Warren B.↗

Discrete-object modeling of remotely sensed scenes

Remotely sensed scenes can be modeled as collections of discrete, three-dimensional objects that cast shadows on a background. Approaching scenes from this perspective has led to two related lines of research. First is the geometric/optical modeling of a forest canopy, in which conifers are modeled as cones whose size and spacing vary according to functions established by field measurements. This canopy model is 'L-resolution' in nature - the objects are smaller than the resolution cells of the image and cannot be resolved individually. Second is scene modeling in which image variance is taken as a function of the relationship between the size, shape and spacing of objects and the resolution cell size of the digital image derived from the scene. This modeling is 'H-resolution' in nature - the objects in the scene are assumed to be larger than the resolution cells of the image, and thus can be individually distinguished. Both approaches illustrate the utility of the discrete-object scene model in extracting information from remotely sensed scenes.

Strahler, A. H.↗

The role of space borne imaging radars in environmental monitoring: Some shuttle imaging radar results in Asia

The synoptic view afforded by orbiting Earth sensors can be extremely valuable for resource evaluation, environmental monitoring and development planning. For many regions of the world, however, cloud cover has prevented the acquisition of remotely sensed data during the most environmentally stressful periods of the year. How synthetic aperture imaging radar can be used to provide valuable data about the condition of the Earth's surface during periods of bad weather is discussed. Examples are given of applications using data from the Shuttle Imaging Radars (SIR) A and B for agricultural land use and crop condition assessment, monsoon flood boundary and flood damage assessment, water resource monitoring and terrain modeling, coastal forest mapping and vegetation penetration, and coastal development monitoring. Recent SIR-B results in Bangladesh are emphasized, radar system basics are reviewed and future SAR systems are discussed.

Imhoff, Marc L.↗

The role of space borne imaging radars in environmental monitoring: Some shuttle imaging radar results in Asia

The synoptic view afforded by orbiting Earth sensors can be extremely valuable for resource evaluation, environmental monitoring and development planning. For many regions of the world, however, cloud cover has prevented the acquisition of remotely sensed data during the most environmentally stressful periods of the year. This paper discusses how synthetic aperture imaging radar can be used to provide valuable data about the condition of the Earth's surface during periods of bad weather. Examples are given of applications using data from the Shuttle Imaging Radars (SIR) A and B for agriculture land use and crop condition assessment, monsoon flood boundary and flood damage assessment, water resource monitoring and terrain modeling, coastal forest mapping and vegetation penetration, and coastal development monitoring. Recent SIR-B results in Bangladesh are emphasized, radar system basics are reviewed and future SAR systems discussed.

Imhoff, M.↗

Scattering measurements on natural and model trees

The acoustical back scattering from a simple scale model of a tree has been experimentally measured. The model consisted of a trunk and six limbs, each with 4 branches; no foliage or twigs were included. The data from the anechoic chamber measurements were then mathematically combined to construct the effective back scattering from groups of trees. Also, initial measurements have been conducted out-of-doors on a single tree in an open field in order to characterize its acoustic scattering as a function of azimuth angle. These measurements were performed in the spring, prior to leaf development. The data support a statistical model of forest scattering; the scattered signal spectrum is highly irregular but with a remarkable general resemblance to the incident signal spectrum. Also, the scattered signal's spectra showed little dependence upon scattering angle.

Rogers, James C.↗

Estimation of biophysical properties of upland Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) plantations

It is widely accepted that estimates of forest above-ground biomass are required as inputs to forest ecosystem models, and that SAR data have the potential to provide such information. This study describes relationships between polarimetric radar backscatter and key biophysical properties of a coniferous plantation in upland central Wales, U.K. Over the test site, topography was relatively complex and was expected to influence the amount of radar backscatter.

Green, Robert M.↗

Fusion of AIRSAR and TM Data for Parameter Classification and Estimation in Dense and Hilly Forests

The expanded remotely sensed data space consisting of coincident radar backscatter and optical reflectance data provides for a more complete description of the Earth surface. This is especially useful where many parameters are needed to describe a certain scene, such as in the presence of dense and complex-structured vegetation or where there is considerable underlying topography. The goal of this paper is to use a combination of radar and optical data to develop a methodology for parameter classification for dense and hilly forests, and further, class-specific parameter estimation. The area to be used in this study is the H. J. Andrews Forest in Oregon, one of the Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) sites in the US. This area consists of various dense old-growth conifer stands, and contains significant topographic relief. The Andrews forest has been the subject of many ecological studies over several decades, resulting in an abundance of ground measurements. Recently, biomass and leaf-area index (LAI) values for approximately 30 reference stands have also become available which span a large range of those parameters. The remote sensing data types to be used are the C-, L-, and P-band polarimetric radar data from the JPL airborne SAR (AIRSAR), the C-band single-polarization data from the JPL topographic SAR (TOPSAR), and the Thematic Mapper (TM) data from Landsat, all acquired in late April 1998. The total number of useful independent data channels from the AIRSAR is 15 (three frequencies, each with three unique polarizations and amplitude and phase of the like-polarized correlation), from the TOPSAR is 2 (amplitude and phase of the interferometric correlation), and from the TM is 6 (the thermal band is not used). The range pixel spacing of the AIRSAR is 3.3m for C- and L-bands and 6.6m for P-band. The TOPSAR pixel spacing is 10m, and the TM pixel size is 30m. To achieve parameter classification, first a number of parameters are defined which are of interest to ecologists for forest process modeling. These parameters include total biomass, leaf biomass, LAI, and tree height. The remote sensing data from radar and TM are used to formulate a multivariate analysis problem given the ground measurements of the parameters. Each class of each parameter is defined by a probability density function (pdf), the spread of which defines the range of that class. High classification accuracy results from situations in which little overlap occurs between pdfs. Classification results provide the basis for the future work of class-specific parameter estimation using radar and optical data. This work was performed in part by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, and in part by the NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA, both under contract from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Moghaddam, Mahta↗

BOREAS TE-20 Soils Data Over the NSA-MSA and Tower Sites in Raster Format

The BOREAS TE-20 team collected several data sets for use in developing and testing models of forest ecosystem dynamics. This data set was gridded from vector layers of soil maps that were received from Dr. Hugo Veldhuis, who did the original mapping in the field during 1994. The vector layers were gridded into raster files that cover the NSA-MSA and tower sites. The data are stored in binary, image format files. The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884), or from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Center (DAAC).

Hall, Forrest G.↗

BOREAS TE-21 SSA Site Characteristics Data

The Boreal Ecosystem-Atmospheric Study (BOREAS) TE-20 (Terrestrial Ecology) team collected several data sets for use in developing and testing models of forest ecosystem dynamics. This data set contains measurements of site characteristics conducted in the Southern Study Area (SSA) from 18 Jul 1994 to 30 Jul 1994. The data are stored in CSV files. The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884), or from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC).

Knox, Robert↗

BOREAS TE-20 Soils Data Over the NSA-MSA and Tower Sites in Vector Format

The BOREAS TE-20 team collected several data sets for use in developing and testing models of forest ecosystem dynamics. This data set contains vector layers of soil maps that were received from Dr. Hugo Veldhuis, who did the original mapping in the field during 1994. The vector layers were converted to ARCANFO EXPORT files. These data cover 1-kilometer diameters around each of the NSA tower sites, and another layer covers the NSA-MSA. The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884), or from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Center (DAAC).

Hall, Forrest G.↗

Detecting Early Warning Signals of Tree Mortality in Boreal North America Using Multiscale Satellite Data

Increasing tree mortality from global change drivers such as drought and biotic infestations is a widespread phenomenon, including in the boreal zone where climate changes and feedbacks to the Earth system are relatively large. Despite the importance for science and management communities, our ability to forecast tree mortality at landscape to continental scales is limited. However, two independent information streams have the potential to inform and improve mortality forecasts: repeat forest inventories and satellite remote sensing. Time series of tree-level growth patterns indicate that productivity declines and related temporal dynamics often precede mortality years to decades before death. Plot-level productivity, in turn, has been related to satellite-based indices such as the Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Here we link these two data sources to show that early warning signals of mortality are evident in several NDVI-based metrics up to 24 years before death. We focus on two repeat forest inventories and three NDVI products across western boreal North America where productivity and mortality dynamics are influenced by periodic drought. These data sources capture a range of forest conditions and spatial resolution to highlight the sensitivity and limitations of our approach. Overall, results indicate potential to use satellite NDVI for early warning signals of mortality. Relationships are broadly consistent across inventories, species, and spatial resolutions, although the utility of coarse-scale imagery in the heterogeneous aspen parkland was limited. Longer-term NDVI data and annually remeasured sites with high mortality levels generate the strongest signals, although we still found robust relationships at sites remeasured at a typical 5 year frequency. The approach and relationships developed here can be used as a basis for improving forest mortality models and monitoring systems.

heat↗

Volatile chemical product emissions enhance ozone and modulate urban chemistry

Decades of air quality improvements have substantially reduced the motor vehicle emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Today, volatile chemical products (VCPs) are responsible for half of the petrochemical VOCs emitted in major urban areas. We show that VCP emissions are ubiquitous in US and European cities and scale with population density. We report significant VCP emissions for New York City (NYC), including a monoterpene flux of 14.7 to 24.4 kg ⋅ d−1 ⋅ km−2 from fragranced VCPs and other anthropogenic sources, which is comparable to that of a summertime forest. Photochemical modeling of an extreme heat event, with ozone well in excess of US standards, illustrates the significant impact of VCPs on air quality. In the most populated regions of NYC, ozone was sensitive to anthropogenic VOCs (AVOCs), even in the presence of biogenic sources. Within this VOC-sensitive regime, AVOCs contributed upwards of ∼20 ppb to maximum 8-h average ozone. VCPs accounted for more than 50% of this total AVOC contribution. Emissions from fragranced VCPs, including personal care and cleaning products, account for at least 50% of the ozone attributed to VCPs. We show that model simulations of ozone depend foremost on the magnitude of VCP emissions and that the addition of oxygenated VCP chemistry impacts simulations of key atmospheric oxidation products. NYC is a case study for developed megacities, and the impacts of VCPs on local ozone are likely similar for other major urban regions across North America or Europe.

Matthew M. Coggon↗