Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Gaussian process model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Short-Term Load Forecasting Considering EV Charging Loads with Prediction Interval Evaluation

Short-term load forecasting plays a critical role in power system planning and operation. Along with the electrification of various loads, electricity demands are becoming increasingly hard to predict. Notably, the recent rise in electric vehicles (EVs) has further contributed to this unpredictability. To address this issue, this paper proposes a probabilistic load forecasting strategy utilizing Gaussian process regression, structured in a day-ahead manner. While many works focus on deterministic prediction, probabilistic forecasting offers additional insights into variability and uncertainty, enabling more flexible and reliable operation for power systems. To enhance the accuracy of the load forecasting model, the inputs include features related to EV charging habits as well as commonly used weather information. The load forecasting results are evaluated using various metrics, including conventional ones that assess the accuracy of point forecasts, as well as additional metrics that test the reliability of prediction intervals. The proposed load forecasting method is finally tested on real residential power consumption data and EV charging data sampled from real-world sources. The results prove that the new features can greatly improve the performance of the load forecasting method.

electrical vehicle↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ion Trapping Studies and Mitigation Strategies for the EIC ERL-Based Strong Hadron Cooler

An Energy Recovery Linac based strong hadron cooler was previously considered for the Electron-Ion Collider. The required electron beam parameters for variable-energy strong hadron cooling place significant constraints on ion trapping and collective effects. This paper presents initial studies of these constraints through a combination of analytical modelling and numerical simulations of ion production, trapping behaviour, and mitigation strategies. A multi-bunch tracking framework based on ELEGANT with the ionEffects module is used to simulate machine operation over millisecond time scales, corresponding to more than 3 × 10^5 electron bunches. The simulations include modelling of ionisation processes together with transverse electron–ion dynamics, allowing the evolution and accumulation of ions to be investigated. Analytical expressions based on Gaussian beam distributions are used to estimate ion trapping conditions and benchmark the simulation results. A bi-periodic bunch spacing scheme is also investigated as a possible mitigation method by detuning the ion oscillation frequency. These studies provide an initial assessment of ion trapping in the strong hadron cooler and demonstrate possible approaches for reducing beam–ion effects.

Bi, R. [Lancaster University, Cockcroft Institute]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Efficient near-field ptychography reconstruction using the Hessian operator

X-ray ptychography is a powerful and robust coherent imaging method providing access to the complex object and probe (illumination). Ptychography reconstruction is typically performed using first-order methods due to their computational efficiency. Higher-order methods, while potentially more accurate, are often prohibitively expensive in terms of computation. In this study, we present a mathematical framework for reconstruction using second-order information derived from an efficient computation of the bilinear Hessian and Hessian operator. The formulation is provided for Gaussian-based models, enabling the simultaneous reconstruction of the object, probe, and object positions. Synthetic data tests, along with experimental near-field ptychography data processing, demonstrate a ten-fold reduction in computation time compared to first-order methods. The derived formulas for computing the Hessians, along with the strategies for incorporating them into optimization schemes, are well-structured and easily adaptable to various ptychography problem formulations.

Carlsson, Marcus [Lund Univ. (Sweden)] (ORCID:0000↗
DOE OSTI2025

Active oversight and quality control in standard Bayesian optimization for autonomous experiments

The fusion of experimental automation and machine learning has catalyzed a new era in materials research, prominently featuring Gaussian Process (GP) Bayesian Optimization (BO) driven autonomous experiments. Here we introduce a Dual-GP approach that enhances traditional GPBO by adding a secondary surrogate model to dynamically constrain the experimental space based on real-time assessments of the raw experimental data. This Dual-GP approach enhances the optimization efficiency of traditional GPBO by isolating more promising space for BO sampling and more valuable experimental data for primary GP training. We also incorporate a flexible, human-in-the-loop intervention method in the Dual-GP workflow to adjust for unanticipated results. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the Dual-GP model with synthetic model data and implement this approach in autonomous pulsed laser deposition experimental data. This Dual-GP approach has broad applicability in diverse GPBO-driven experimental settings, providing a more adaptable and precise framework for refining autonomous experimentation for more efficient optimization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

A convergence metric for counting statistics in time-resolved small angle neutron scattering

Here, this work introduces a model-independent, dimensionless metric for predicting optimal measurement duration in time-resolved small-angle neutron scattering using early-time data. Built on a Gaussian process regression framework, the method reconstructs scattering profiles with quantified uncertainty, even from sparse or noisy measurements. Demonstrated on the EQ-SANS instrument at the Spallation Neutron Source, the approach generalizes to general SANS instruments with a two-dimensional detector. A key result is the discovery of a dimensionless convergence metric revealing a universal power-law scaling in profile evolution across soft matter systems. When time is normalized by a system-specific characteristic time t*, the variation in inferred profiles collapses onto a single curve with an exponent between −2 and −1. This trend emerges within the first ten time steps, enabling early prediction of measurement sufficiency. The method supports real-time experimental optimization and is especially valuable for maximizing efficiency in low-flux environments such as compact accelerator-based neutron sources.

Tung, Chi-Huan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model emulation and closure tests for (3+1)D relativistic heavy-ion collisions

In nuclear and particle physics, reconciling sophisticated simulations with experimental data is vital for understanding complex systems like the Quark Gluon Plasma (QGP) generated in heavy ion collisions. However, computational demands pose challenges, motivating using Gaussian Process emulators for efficient parameter extraction via Bayesian calibration. We conduct a comparative analysis of Gaussian Process emulators in heavy-ion physics to identify the most adept emulator for parameter extraction with minimal uncertainty. Furthermore, our study contributes to advancing computational techniques in heavy-ion physics, enhancing our ability to interpret experimental data and understand QGP properties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Correlation-aware binning for small-angle neutron scattering via Gaussian-process inference

Binning in small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) is typically performed empirically, with fixed parameters chosen for convenience rather than statistical optimality. Such practices often fail to balance statistical precision and spatial resolution, leading to inconsistencies across instruments and datasets. Here we establish a correlation-aware framework that determines the optimal bin width from first principles by extending the classical Freedman–Diaconis (FD) rule to account for inter-bin correlations with a Gaussian process. In this formulation, the scattering intensity is treated as a smooth stochastic field whose statistical coherence is described by a covariance matrix. Analytical expressions of errors derived from this model yield closed-form criteria that separate the total deviation into contributions from counting noise, aliasing distortion and curvature-dependent correlation effects. Expressed in reduced variables, the resulting dimensionless error surface reveals a continuous transition from the uncorrelated FD regime to the correlation-dominated limit, providing a unified description of noise suppression and resolution control. Because the formulation depends only on the profile characteristics of scattering intensity I(Q), specifically its average intensity and first- and second-order derivatives, it applies generally to any SANS measurement regardless of sample, instrument or geometry. Experimental validation using small- and ultra-small-angle neutron scattering data confirms the predicted scaling behavior, demonstrating that correlation-aware inference systematically reduces mean-squared error and enables information-efficient reproducible data reduction across materials and instruments.

Tung, Chi-Huan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000221972074)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of post-breakup Coulomb acceleration using a trajectory model

Intermediate mass fragments ejected during the deexcitation of excited projectilelike fragments may promptly decay following ejection; the daughter particles that are subsequently produced are subject to interactions with the residual nucleus that affect final-state observables, a process herein referred to as post-breakup Coulomb acceleration. A simple classical Coulomb interaction model was used to study modification of 8 Be (2 + ), 5 Li (3/2 – ), 7 Li (7/2 – ), 7 Be (7/2 – ), and states in 12 B emitted following heavy-ion collisions of 28 Si + 12 C at 35 MeV/nucleon. Here, in contrast to previous work studying 8 Be (2 + ), excellent agreement between simulation and experiment was obtained using only Coulomb forces when either a Lorentzian or R-matrix line shape was used to describe the initial relative energy rather than a Gaussian. In consideration of the obtained results, improvements to the model and evaluation of experimental data are discussed as future directions, but it was concluded that the effects observed in the present data can be accurately described using only elements of classical mechanics and that the process is largely understood for a wide range of state lifetimes and mass and charge (a)symmetries.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Microscopic constraints for the equation of state and structure of neutron stars: A Bayesian model mixing framework

Bayesian model mixing (BMM) is a statistical technique that can combine constraints from different regions of an input space in a principled way. Here we extend our BMM framework for the equation of state (EOS) of strongly interacting matter from symmetric nuclear matter to asymmetric matter, specifically focusing on zero-temperature, charge-neutral, 𝛽-equilibrated matter. We use Gaussian processes (GPs) to infer constraints on the neutron-star matter EOS at intermediate densities from two different microscopic theories: chiral effective-field theory (𝜒⁢EFT) at baryon densities around nuclear saturation, 𝑛 𝐵 ∼ 𝑛 0 , and perturbative QCD at asymptotically high baryon densities, 𝑛 𝐵 ⩾ 20⁢𝑛 0 . The uncertainties of the 𝜒⁢EFT and pQCD EOSs are obtained using the BUQEYE truncation error model. We demonstrate the flexibility of our framework through the use of two categories of GP kernels: conventional stationary kernels and a nonstationary changepoint kernel. We use the latter to explore potential constraints on the dense matter EOS by including exogenous data representing theory predictions and heavy-ion collision measurements at densities ⩾ 2⁢𝑛 0 . We also use our EOSs to obtain neutron-star mass-radius relations and their uncertainties. Finally, our framework, whose implementation will be available through a GitHub repository, provides a prior distribution for the EOS that can be used in large-scale neutron-star inference frameworks.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty guided online ensemble for non-stationary data streams in fusion science

Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior with distribution drifts, resulted by both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with such non-stationary data streams. Online learning techniques have been leveraged in other domains, however it has been largely unexplored for fusion applications. In this paper, we investigate online learning for continuous adaptation to drifting data streams in the prediction of Toroidal Field (TF) coils deflection at the DIII-D fusion facility. We further address the short-term performance degradation inherent to standard online learning, which arises because ground truth is unavailable at prediction time. To mitigate this issue, we propose an uncertainty-guided online ensemble framework. The method leverages the Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) for calibrated uncertainty estimation and uses these uncertainty measures to guide a meta-algorithm that aggregates predictions from learners trained over different historical horizons. Our results show that online learning reduces prediction error by 80% compared to a static model. The online ensemble and the proposed uncertainty-guided ensemble further reduce error by approximately 6%, and 10% respectively, relative to standard single-model online learning, while also providing calibrated uncertainty estimates to support operational decision-making.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Divide and conquer: separating the two probabilities in seismic phase picking

There are two fundamental probabilities in the seismic phase picking process—the probability of the existence of a seismic phase (detection probability) and the probability associated with the phase arrival time estimation (timing probability). The nearly ubiquitous approach in developing deep learning phase picking models is to use a kernel, such as a truncated Gaussian, to mask the labelled phase arrival time and train a segmentation model. Once a model is trained, the times of the peaks in the output are taken as phase arrival times (picks), and the height of the peaks are taken as ‘probability’ of the picks. Here, we show that this ‘probability’ represents neither the detection nor the timing probability because this approach forces the output to follow the shape of the kernel. We introduce an approach using two models to estimate these two distinct probabilities. We use a binary classifier with a calibrated confidence to address the detection probability and a multiclass classifier to obtain a probability mass function to address the timing probability. This new approach can make the deep learning-based phase picking process more interpretable and provide options to logically control seismic monitoring workflows.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

MOOSE ProbML: Parallelizable Probabilistic Machine Learning and Uncertainty Quantification Capabilities

The Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) is a widely used open- source finite element software for performing multiphysics multiscale simulations in a massively parallel fashion. Recently, the computational team at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has implemented Probabilistic Machine Learning (ProbML) capabilities in MOOSE—in a parallelized fashion—and enable active learning with large-scale computational models for tasks such as surrogate model development, scale bridging, forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ), Bayesian optimization, etc. This presentation summarizes these developments in MOOSE along with demonstrations on several real applications relevant to nuclear energy. At the fundamental level, samplers like Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube, variance reduction, parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) support uncertainty propagation in both forward and inverse settings. These samplers can be integrated with the Gaussian processes (GP) suite in MOOSE, which offer several variants like scalar GPs, multi-output GPs, and deep GPs, to enable active learning. These GPs can be tuned using gradient-based optimization methods like Adam and its variants or gradient-free methods like the elliptical slice sampler (a variant of MCMC adept under Gaussian settings) for more complex covariance kernels or likelihoods whose gradient computations can be cumbersome. A variety of batch acquisition functions permit parallelized evaluation of the computational model and support different learning objectives with high efficiency like Bayesian inference, global surrogate development, optimization, etc. Furthermore, libtorch integration supports training, evaluation, and re-training of neural networks and other complex machine learning models in active learning settings. The impacts of these developments are shown on several real applications: (1) nuclear fuel inverse UQ and model inadequacy assessment using the Kennedy O’Hagan framework; (2) uncertainty aware surrogate modeling for additive manufacturing to predict field quantities; (3) nuclear reactor rare events analysis; and (4) complex fluid flow prediction using a global surrogate with quantified prediction uncertainty. Finally, the outlook of MOOSE ProbML is discussed for both outer-loop and inner-loop computations in the broad view to accelerate fuels and materials qualification, address gaps in knowledge and data, and assess new reactor/fuel systems.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Pulsed-Laser Deposition SrTiO 3 Homoepitaxy Growth Dynamics Using High-Speed Reflection High-Energy Electron Diffraction

Pulsed-laser deposition (PLD) is a powerful technique for growing complex oxides with controlled stoichiometry. To understand growth dynamics therein, it is common to leverage in situ spectroscopies, such as reflection high-energy electron diffraction (RHEED), to monitor surface crystallinity. Most commercial systems rely on video-rate cameras operating at 60-120 Hz that lack sufficient temporal resolution to capture growth dynamics at practical deposition frequencies. Here, a high-speed platform to record in situ dynamics via RHEED at >500 Hz is implemented. An open-source analysis package is designed to fit diffraction spots to 2D Gaussians, allowing single-pulse surface reconstruction kinetics extraction. Using homoepitaxially deposited (001)-oriented SrTiO 3 as a model system, we demonstrate how high-speed RHEED can provide real-time insight into growth processes obscured by slower acquisition systems. By fitting the single-pulse intensity to a set of exponential functions, we observe changes in the characteristic decay time and mechanism correlated to the substrate step width and surface termination. We observe distinct surface effects, with diffraction intensity decaying on lower-energy TiO 2 -terminated surfaces and stabilizing on SrO- or mixed-terminated surfaces. Similarly, using an exponential model, the extracted characteristic time of adatom deposition decreases with increased density of bonding sites associated with mixed termination and narrower step widths. Ultimately, this work shows how increasing RHEED temporal resolution can uncover new insights into growth processes, with practical implications for the design and control of PLD processes. This experimental platform provides new capabilities to enable data-driven machine learning analysis and autonomous control systems to enhance the complexity and fecundity of PLD.

(SrO)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Applying Machine‐Learning Methods to Laser Acceleration of Protons: Lessons Learned From Synthetic Data

ABSTRACT In this study, we consider three different machine‐learning methods—a three‐hidden‐layer neural network, support vector regression, and Gaussian process regression—and compare how well they can learn from a synthetic data set for proton acceleration in the Target Normal Sheath Acceleration regime. The synthetic data set was generated from a previously published theoretical model by Fuchs et al. 2005 that we modified. Once trained, these machine‐learning methods can assist with efforts to maximize the peak proton energy, or with the more general problem of configuring the laser system to produce a proton energy spectrum with desired characteristics. In our study, we focus on both the accuracy of the machine‐learning methods and the performance on one GPU including memory consumption. Although it is arguably the least sophisticated machine‐learning model we considered, support vector regression performed very well in our tests.

Desai, Ronak↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian batch optimization for molybdenum versus tungsten inertial confinement fusion double shell target design

Access to reliable, clean energy sources is a major concern for national security. Much research is focused on the “grand challenge” of producing energy via controlled fusion reactions in a laboratory setting. For fusion experiments, specifically inertial confinement fusion (ICF), to produce sufficient energy, the fusion reactions in the ICF fuel need to become self-sustaining and burn deuterium-tritium (DT) fuel efficiently. The recent record-breaking NIF ignition shot was able to achieve this goal as well as produce more energy than used to drive the experiment. This achievement brings self-sustaining fusion-based power systems closer than ever before, capable of providing humans with access to secure, renewable energy. In order to further progress toward the actualization of such power systems, more ICF experiments need to be conducted at large laser facilities such as the United States's National Ignition Facility (NIF) or France's Laser Mega-Joule. The high cost per shot and limited number of shots that are possible per year make it prohibitive to perform large numbers of experiments. As such, experimental design relies heavily on complex predictive physics simulations for high-fidelity “preshot” analysis. These multidimensional, multi-physics, high-fidelity simulations have to account for a variety of input parameters as well as modeling the extreme conditions (pressures and densities) present at ignition. Such simulations (especially in 3D) can become computationally prohibitive to turn around for each ICF experiment. In this work, we explore using Bayesian optimization with Gaussian processes (GPs) to find optimal designs for ICF double shell targets, while keeping computational costs to manageable levels. These double shell targets have an inner shell that grades from beryllium on the outer surface to the higher Z material molybdenum, as opposed to the nominally used tungsten, on the inside in order to trade off between the high performance associated with high density inner shells and capsule stability. We describe our results for “capsule-only” xRAGE simulations to study the physics between different capsule designs, inner shell materials, and potential for future experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Inference of Liquid Structure from Scattering Data

We present a nonparametric Bayesian framework to infer radial distribution functions from experimental scattering measurements with uncertainty quantification using nonstationary Gaussian processes. The Gaussian process prior mean and kernel functions are designed to mitigate well-known numerical challenges with the Fourier transform, including discrete measurement binning and detector windowing, while encoding fundamental yet minimal physical knowledge of the liquid structure. We demonstrate uncertainty propagation of the Gaussian process posterior to unmeasured quantities of interest. Experimental radial distribution functions of liquid argon and water with uncertainty quantification are provided as both a proof of principle for the method and a benchmark for molecular models.

Chemical structure↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analytic Neural Network Gaussian Process Enabled Chance-Constrained Voltage Regulation for Active Distribution Systems with PVs, Batteries and EVs

This paper proposes an analytic neural network Gaussian process (NNGP)-based chance-constrained real-time voltage regulation method for active distribution systems with photovoltaics (PVs), batteries, and electric vehicles (EVs). NNGP can utilize historical measurement data to achieve real-time probabilistic node voltage estimation through Bayesian inference. Then, NNGP is fully analytically embedded into the optimal power flow model to perform voltage regulation and adapt to various topological changes. The uncertainties of voltage estimations are easily considered via the chance constraint, and it has been shown that the adoption of this chance constraint can significantly improve the reliability of voltage regulation under various scenarios. The comparison results with other methods, carried out on a real 759-node distribution system located in western Colorado, U.S., show that the proposed method can achieve accurate voltage estimation across different topologies and reliably perform voltage regulation considering PVs, batteries, and EVs.

active distribution systems↗
DOE OSTI2025

Emulating the Lyman-Alpha forest 1D power spectrum from cosmological simulations: new models and constraints from the eBOSS measurement

We present the Lyssa suite of high-resolution cosmological simulations of the Lyman-α forest designed for cosmological analyses. These 18 simulations have been run using the Nyx code with 40963 hydrodynamical cells in a 120 Mpc (∼ 81 Mpc/h) comoving box and individually provide sub-percent level convergence of the Lyman-α forest 1d flux power spectrum. We build a Gaussian process emulator for the Lyssa simulations in the lym1d likelihood framework to interpolate the power spectrum at arbitrary parameter values. We validate this emulator based on leave-one-out tests and based on the parameter constraints for simulations outside of the training set. We also perform comparisons with a previous emulator, showing a percent level accuracy and a good recovery of the expected cosmological parameters. Using this emulator we derive constraints on the linear matter power spectrum amplitude and slope parameters A Lyα and n Lyα . While the best-fit Planck ΛCDM model has A Lyα = 8.79 and n Lyα = -2.363, from DR14 eBOSS data we find that A Lyα < 7.6 (95% CI) and n Lyα = -2.369 ± 0.008. The low value of A Lyα , in tension with Planck, is driven by the correlation of this parameter with the mean transmission of the Lyman-α forest. This tension disappears when imposing a well-motivated external prior on this mean transmission, in which case we find A Lyα = 9.8 ± 1.1 in accordance with Planck.

Walther, Michael↗