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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive Discovery and Mixed-Variable Optimization of Next Generation Synthesizable Microelectronic Materials

Design of new microelectronic materials is characterized by several challenges such as high-dimensionality of the atomic structure-composition variable space, formidable cost of directly using high-fidelity simulations for design optimization, dispersity in literature-reported similar materials and synthesis methods, complex physical mechanisms, and mixed qualitative and quantitative design variables that lead to a disjointed design space. Even though machine learning (ML) techniques have been employed to expedite materials innovation, existing methods treat ML and design optimization as two separate processes, failing to resolve the fundamental challenges associated with high dimensionality and mixed-variable complexity. We have developed a ML enhanced mixed-variable material design optimization framework to efficiently extract useful information from existing data in literature and physics-based simulations to guide the autonomous search for optimal materials. Our proposed framework is composed of four computational modules: (1) a natural language processing (NLP) based virtual screening module, (2) classification based concept exploration module, (3) a density functional theory (DFT)-based high-fidelity evaluation model, and (4) a novel latent-variable Gaussian process (LVGP) ML model for mixed-variable problems with uncertainty quantification, which seamlessly integrates with Bayesian Optimization (BO) and achieves superb efficiency through embedded physics-based dimension reduction. Our approach is demonstrated and validated using the testbed of functional materials exhibiting metal-insulation transitions (MITs), with the targeted reversible resistivity changes (∼10^5) near room temperature. At the end of the 30-month project, we have developed a series of new ML techniques using NLP, conditional variational autoencoders, active learning, latent-variable Gaussian processes, integrated with Bayesian optimization. Our project has resulted in new predicted MITs compounds and improved understanding of MITs microscopic mechanisms, which in turn will revolutionize microelectronics science to provide energy-saving solutions. Our research has improved both creativity and efficiency in transforming rare-event discoveries of new functional materials to persistent innovations. In addition to open-sourcing the online MIT database and the classification model, the LVGP open source code has been downloaded more than 15,000 times within two years. More than 40 MIT compounds have been identified and many have been pursued experimentally via collaborators. The research results are published in close to 20 collaborative papers in high-impact journals, such as Chem. Mater., Appl. Phys. Rev., Sci. Rep., among others of design space.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Non -degenerate marginal-likelihood calibration with application to quantum characterization

Here, we propose a marginal likelihood strategy within the Kennedy-O’Hagan (KOH) Bayesian framework, where a Gaussian process (GP) models the discrepancy between a physical system and its simulator. Our approach introduces a novel marginalized likelihood by integrating out the degenerate eigenspace of the covariance matrix, rather than approximating the original likelihood. Unlike approximation methods that compromise accuracy for computational efficiency, our method defines an exact likelihood—distinct from the original but preserving all relevant information. This formulation achieves computational efficiency and stability, even for large datasets where the covariance matrix nears degeneracy. Applied to the characterization of a superconducting quantum device at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the approach enhances the predictive accuracy of the Lindblad master equations for modeling Ramsey measurement data by effectively quantifying uncertainties consistent with the quantum data.

general physics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Temperature and Composition Dependence Modeling of Viscosity and Electrical Conductivity of Low-Activity Waste Glass Melts

The development of models that accurately relate the properties of a glass melt to its temperature and composition is important for glass formulation, melter control, and modeling the melt flow, refractory corrosion, and production rate. Using a database consisting of more than 4,000 data points measured between 900 °C and 1250 °C for over 600 unique low-activity waste glass compositions, we developed models for the melt viscosity and electrical conductivity. Models based on the Gaussian process regression approach outperformed models based on the Vogel–Fulcher–Tammann equation according to four standard metrics and yielded reliable prediction intervals. The models found primarily linear effects between properties and individual components, except for the effect of the Na 2 O mass fraction on the electrical conductivity. The effects were found to be consistent with current theories on physical processes involved with those properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

AI and extreme scale computing to learn and infer the physics of higher order gravitational wave modes of quasi-circular, spinning, non-precessing black hole mergers

We use artificial intelligence (AI) to learn and infer the physics of higher order gravitational wave modes of quasi-circular, spinning, non precessing binary black hole mergers. We trained AI models using 14 million waveforms, produced with the surrogate model NRHybSur3dq8, that include modes up to $\ell$ ≤ 4 and (5,5), except for (4,0) and (4,1), that describe binaries with mass-ratios $\textit{q}$ ≤ 8, individual spins $s^z_{\{1,2\}} \in$[–0.8,0.8], and inclination angle $θ \in$ [0,π]. Our probabilistic AI surrogates can accurately constrain the mass-ratio, individual spins, effective spin, and inclination angle of numerical relativity waveforms that describe such signal manifold. We compared the predictions of our AI models with Gaussian process regression, random forest, k-nearest neighbors, and linear regression, and with traditional Bayesian inference methods through the PyCBC Inference toolkit, finding that AI outperforms all these approaches in terms of accuracy, and are between three to four orders of magnitude faster than traditional Bayesian inference methods. Our AI surrogates were trained within 3.4 hours using distributed training on 1,536 NVIDIA V100 GPUs in the Summit supercomputer.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding Process–Structure Relationships during Lamination of Halide Perovskite Interfaces

Fabrication of halide perovskite (HP) solar cells typically involves the sequential deposition of multiple layers to create a device stack, which is limited by the thermal and chemical incompatibility of top contact layers with the underlying HP semiconductor. One emerging strategy to overcome these restrictions on material selection and processing conditions is lamination, where two half-stacks are independently processed and then diffusion bonded to complete the device. Lamination reduces the processing constraints on the top side of the solar cell to allow new device designs, expanded use of deposition methods, and self-encapsulation of devices. While laminated perovskite solar cells with high efficiencies and novel interlayer combinations have been demonstrated, there is a limited understanding of how the lamination process parameters affect the diffusion-bond quality and material properties of the resulting HP layer. In this study, we systematically vary temperature, pressure, and time during lamination and quantify the resulting impacts on bonded area, grain domain size, and photoluminescence. A design of experiments is performed, and statistical analysis of the experimental results is used to quantitatively evaluate the resulting process–structure–property relationships. The lamination temperature is found to be the key parameter controlling these properties. Furthermore, a temperature of 150 °C enables successful bonding over 95% of the substrate area and also results in increases in apparent grain domain size and photoluminescence intensity. Based on these insights, the lamination temperature of functional perovskite solar cell devices is varied, demonstrating the importance of the resulting bond quality on device performance metrics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

An emulator for the Lyman-α forest in beyond-ΛCDM cosmologies

Interpreting observations of the Lyman-α forest flux power spectrum requires interpolation between a small number of expensive simulations. We present a Gaussian process emulator modelling the 1D flux power spectrum as a function of the amplitude and slope of the small-scale linear matter power spectrum, and the state of the intergalactic medium at the epoch of interest (2 < z < 4). This parameterisation enables the prediction of the flux power spectrum in extended cosmological models that are not explicitly included in the training set, eliminating the need to construct bespoke emulators for a number of extensions to ΛCDM. Our emulator is appropriate for cosmologies in which the linear matter power spectrum is described to percent level accuracy by just an amplitude and slope across the epoch of interest, and in the regime probed by eBOSS/DESI data. We demonstrate this for massive neutrino cosmologies, where the emulator is able to predict the flux power spectrum in a Σm ν = 0.3 eV neutrino cosmology to sub-percent accuracy, without including massive neutrinos in the training simulations. Further parameters would be required to describe models with sharp features in the linear power, such as warm or light axion dark matter. This work will facilitate the combination of upcoming DESI data with observations of the cosmic microwave background, to obtain constraints on neutrino mass and other extensions to ΛCDM cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-Sensor Optimal Motion Planning for Radiological Contamination Surveys by Using Prediction-Difference Maps

Distributed and networked mobile sensor platforms using unmanned aerial and/or ground vehicles to survey areas of interest offer a safer and more efficient method for radiological contamination mapping; however, most applications rely on uniformly sweeping of the area in a raster-type motion without utilizing the information available in a dynamic sense. We have developed a fully autonomous optimal motion planning procedure for networks with two or more mobile sensors. The procedure utilizes well-established concepts of Gaussian processes in combination with control laws based on centroidal Voronoi tessellations to achieve optimal next-iteration sensor movements. A new method of informing optimal motion planning is proposed, whereby the absolute difference between the prior and current full-map prediction, referred to as the prediction-difference map, is used as the spatial density function within each Voronoi cell, providing immediate and iterative feedback for dynamic use of available information. The Gaussian process regression model used to estimate the contamination in unvisited locations also provides prediction uncertainties, and can be used as a quantitative metric to assess the confidence in the calculated contamination map; these estimates and prediction uncertainties are unavailable for standard uniform survey routines as they can only produce maps in the vicinity of observed locations. We present through simulation the achievable performance gains from using this new method by directly comparing to a uniform survey method. Results show that using the prediction-difference maps to inform motion planning procedures offers a faster rate of producing an accurate and convergent map relative to a uniform survey route.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reconstructing the Universe: Testing the Mutual Consistency of the Pantheon and SDSS/eBOSS BAO Data Sets with Gaussian Processes

We test the mutual consistency between the baryon acoustic oscillation measurements from the eBOSS SDSS final release and the Pantheon supernova compilation in a model-independent fashion using Gaussian process regression. We also test their joint consistency with the ΛCDM model in a model-independent fashion. We also use Gaussian process regression to reconstruct the expansion history that is preferred by these two data sets. While this methodology finds no significant preference for model flexibility beyond ΛCDM, we are able to generate a number of reconstructed expansion histories that fit the data better than the best-fit ΛCDM model. These example expansion histories may point the way toward modifications to ΛCDM. We also constrain the parameters Ω{sub k} and H {sub 0} r {sub d} both with ΛCDM and with Gaussian process regression. We find that H {sub 0} r {sub d} = 10,030 ± 130 km s{sup −1} and Ω{sub k} = 0.05 ± 0.10 for ΛCDM and that H {sub 0} r {sub d} = 10,040 ± 140 km s{sup −1} and Ω{sub k} = 0.02 ± 0.20 for the Gaussian process case.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model selection and signal extraction using Gaussian Process regression

We present a novel computational approach for extracting localized signals from smooth background distributions. We focus on datasets that can be naturally presented as binned integer counts, demonstrating our procedure on the CERN open dataset with the Higgs boson signature, from the ATLAS collaboration at the Large Hadron Collider. Our approach is based on Gaussian Process (GP) regression — a powerful and flexible machine learning technique which has allowed us to model the background without specifying its functional form explicitly and separately measure the background and signal contributions in a robust and reproducible manner. Unlike functional fits, our GP-regression-based approach does not need to be constantly updated as more data becomes available. We discuss how to select the GP kernel type, considering trade-offs between kernel complexity and its ability to capture the features of the background distribution. We show that our GP framework can be used to detect the Higgs boson resonance in the data with more statistical significance than a polynomial fit specifically tailored to the dataset. Finally, we use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to confirm the statistical significance of the extracted Higgs signature.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gaussian Process Emulators for Volcanic Ash Dispersion Model Tephra2

It is necessary to predict volcanic ash deposition since falling ash is harmful to human activities. Because simulators built for this purpose are computationally expensive, it is popular to use statistical emulators for geophysical hazard analyses, where a large number of simulations are required. Gaussian stochastic process emulators are able to approximate expensive simulations in an accurate and efficient way. Using a relatively small number of simulation runs, a well-trained emulator can accurately predict simulation outputs at massive new input points in a few seconds. Under different explosive eruption conditions, we constructed Gaussian stochastic process emulators for Tephra2, a simulation tool for estimating the accumulation of volcanic ash over a region. Historical wind records are used as input wind data, without assuming a Gaussian wind speed profile or common wind direction among elevations. While there are several inputs for Tephra2, we use no more than three physically motivated variables as emulator inputs to reduce the computational cost of emulations. The emulator outputs predict the mass of tephra per unit area at 50281 grid points around a predetermined vent location.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploration with Scalable Gaussian Process Reinforcement Learning

Exploration is a challenging problem in reinforcement learning (RL), especially in environments with sparse rewards. Quantifying and utilizing the parametric uncertainty has been shown to be paramount for successful exploration [Osband et al., 2018]. Bayesian, or approximately Bayesian, methods present a principled means of estimating the parametric uncertainty in RL problems. Gaussian processes, nonparametric Bayesian models, are often impractical due to poor scalability and computational bottlenecks. We introduce a scalable Gaussian process RL (GPRL) method which directly induces sparsity in the covariance matrix to facilitate faster computation. This is a departure from previous GPRL methods which instead rely on data reduction and subsampling. We compare various covariance-based exploration techniques (Thompson sampling, upper confidence bound, and probabilistic maximum variance) which leverage our scalable GP framework in sparse reward environments. Finally, we show favorable comparison against the bootstrapped deep Q-Network.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A comparison of Gaussian processes and neural networks for computer model emulation and calibration

The Department of Energy relies on complex physics simulations for prediction in domains like cosmology, nuclear theory, and materials science. These simulations are often extremely computationally intensive, with some requiring days or weeks for a single simulation. In order to assure their accuracy, these models are calibrated against observational data in order to estimate inputs and systematic biases. Because of their great computational complexity, this process typically requires the construction of an emulator, a fast approximation to the simulation. In this paper, two emulator approaches are compared: Gaussian process regression and neural networks. Their emulation accuracy and calibration performance on three real problems of Department of Energy interest is considered. On these problems, the Gaussian process emulator tends to be more accurate with narrower, but still well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The neural network emulator is accurate, but tends to have large uncertainty on its predictions. Finally, as a result, calibration with the Gaussian process emulator produces more constrained posteriors that still perform well in prediction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hierarchical Gaussian process-based Bayesian optimization for materials discovery in high entropy alloy spaces

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful and data-efficient method for iterative materials discovery and design, particularly valuable when prior knowledge is limited, underlying functional relationships are complex or unknown, and the cost of querying the materials space is significant. Traditional BO methodologies typically utilize conventional Gaussian Processes (cGPs) to model the relationships between material inputs and properties, as well as correlations within the input space. However, cGP-BO approaches often fall short in multi-objective optimization scenarios, where they are unable to fully exploit correlations between distinct material properties. Leveraging these correlations can significantly enhance the discovery process, as information about one property can inform and improve predictions about others. Here, this study addresses this limitation by employing advanced kernel structures to capture and model multi-dimensional property correlations through multi-task (MTGPs) or deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs), thus accelerating the discovery process. We demonstrate the effectiveness of MTGP-BO and DGP-BO in rapidly and robustly solving complex materials design challenges that occur within the context of complex multi-objective optimization over FCC FeCrNiCoCu high entropy alloy (HEA) spaces, where traditional cGP-BO approaches fail. Furthermore, we highlight how the differential costs associated with querying various material properties can be strategically leveraged to make the materials discovery process more cost-efficient.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Kepler Data Analysis: Non-Gaussian Noise and Fourier Gaussian Process Analysis of Stellar Variability

We develop a statistical analysis model of Kepler stellar flux data in the presence of planet transits, non-Gaussian noise, and stellar variability. We first develop a model for the Kepler noise probability distribution in the presence of outliers, which make the noise probability distribution non-Gaussian. We develop a signal likelihood analysis based on this probability distribution, in which we model the signal as a sum of the star variability and planetary transits. We argue that these components need to be modeled together if optimal signal is to be extracted from the data. For the stellar variability model we develop an optimal Gaussian process analysis using a Fourier-based Wiener filter approach, where the power spectrum is non-parametric and learned from the data. We develop high dimensional optimization of the objective function, where we jointly optimize all the model parameters, including thousands of star variability modes, and planet transit parameters. We apply the method to Kepler-90 data and show that it gives a better match to the stellar variability than the existing methods, and robustly handles noise outliers. As a consequence, the planet radii have a higher value than what the existing methods give, including splines and celerite.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

When physics-informed data analytics outperforms black-box machine learning: A case study in thickness control for additive manufacturing

Aerosol jet printing (AJP) has emerged as a promising noncontact additive manufacturing method for high-resolution printing for a wide range of material systems. A key challenge limiting the broader adoption of AJP in the material science community is the lack of methods to precisely control thickness. Herein, we develop a model-based design of experiment (MBDoE) framework that integrates physics-informed models, nonlinear regression, and information criteria to postulate, select and calibrate the best model to describe and optimize the AJP manufacturing process. Starting with already available data from system commissioning (e.g., prior single variable sensitivity analysis), four candidate physics-informed models are postulated and trained. MBDoE identifies a single additional optimal experiment to validate these predictive models with quantified uncertainties, which are then used to determine the best experimental conditions to control printed film thickness. As a comparative benchmark, the analysis is repeated using the same dataset with nonparametric Gaussian process regression (GPR) model that does not incorporate physical information. Using MBDoE principles, we find that only five experiments are necessary to calibrate the nonlinear physics-informed parametric model, and with said limited data, this model outperforms the black-box machine learning GPR model. This key result underscores an emerging trend in the data science community: incorporating physical information into predictive models often drastically reduces the data requirements. Leveraging MBDoE further increased the data efficiency. By design, the proposed data science framework is general in nature and can be easily extended to other experimental and additive manufacturing systems beyond AJP.

Aerosol jet printing↗
DOE OSTI2020

Beyond the proton drip line: Bayesian analysis of proton-emitting nuclei

The limits of the nuclear landscape are determined by nuclear binding energies. Beyond the proton drip lines, where the separation energy becomes negative, there is not enough binding energy to prevent protons from escaping the nucleus. Predicting properties of unstable nuclear states in the vast territory of proton emitters poses an appreciable challenge for nuclear theory as it often involves far extrapolations. In addition, significant discrepancies between nuclear models in the proton-rich territory call for quantified predictions. With the help of Bayesian methodology, we mix a family of nuclear mass models corrected with statistical emulators trained on the experimental mass measurements, in the proton-rich region of the nuclear chart. Separation energies were computed within nuclear density functional theory using several Skyrme and Gogny energy density functionals. We also considered mass predictions based on two models used in astrophysical studies. Quantified predictions were obtained for each model using Bayesian Gaussian processes trained on separation-energy residuals and combined via Bayesian model averaging. Here, we obtained a good agreement between averaged predictions of statistically corrected models and experiment. In particular, we quantified model results for one- and two-proton separation energies and derived probabilities of proton emission. This information enabled us to produce a quantified landscape of proton-rich nuclei. The most promising candidates for two-proton decay studies have been identified. Finally, the methodology used in this work has broad applications to model-based extrapolations of various nuclear observables. It also provides a reliable uncertainty quantification of theoretical predictions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗