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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Investigating the Potential Range Expansion of the Vector Mosquito Aedes Aegypti in Mexico with NASA Earth Science Remote Sensing Results

Dengue (Breakbone) fever is caused by one of four viruses carried by mosquitoes in tropical and subtropical areas. Cases have increased dramatically in the past few decades; there are currently approximately 100 million infections annually around the globe. Our project will integrate environmental observations, including weather, land use, vegetation type, amount and greenness, soil moisture, and mosquito populations with investigations of the human dynamics of the system via household surveys.

Estes, Sue M.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Quasars That Have Transitioned from Radio-quiet to Radio-loud on Decadal Timescales Revealed by VLASS and FIRST

We have performed a search over 3440 deg^2 of Epoch 1(2017–2019)of the Very Large Array Sky Survey to identify unobscured quasars in the optical(0.2 2500%)but roughly steady fluxes over a few months at 3 GHz are inconsistent with extrinsic variability due to propagation effects, thus favoring an intrinsic origin. We conclude that our sources are powerful quasars hosting compact/young jets. This challenges the generally accepted idea that “radio-loudness” is a property of the quasar/AGN population that remains fixed on human timescales. Our study suggests that frequent episodes of short-lived AGN jets that do not necessarily grow to large scales may be common at high redshift. We speculate that intermittent but powerful jets on subgalactic scales could interact with the interstellar medium, possibly driving feedback capable of influencing galaxy evolution

Kristina Nyland↗
NASA NTRS2017

Cancer Risk in Astronauts: A Constellation of Uncommon Consequences

Excess cancers resulting from external radiation exposures have been noted since the early 1950s, when a rise in leukemia rates was first reported in young atomic bomb survivors [1]. Further studies in atomic bomb survivors, cancer patients treated with radiotherapy, and nuclear power plant workers have confirmed that radiation exposure increases the risk of not only leukemia, but also a wide array of solid cancers [2,3]. NASA has long been aware of this risk and limits astronauts' risk of exposure-induced death (REID) from cancer by specifying permissible mission durations (PMD) for astronauts on an individual basis. While cancer is present among astronauts, current data does not suggest any excess of known radiation-induced cancers relative to a comparable population of U.S. adults; however, very uncommon cancers have been diagnosed in astronauts including nasopharyngeal cancer, lymphoma of the brain, and acral myxoinflammatory fibroblastic sarcoma. In order to study cancer risk in astronauts, a number of obstacles must be overcome. Firstly, several factors make the astronaut cohort considerably different from the cohorts that have previously been studied for effects resulting from radiation exposure. The high rate of accidents and the much healthier lifestyle of astronauts compared to the U.S. population make finding a suitable comparison population a problematic task. Space radiation differs substantially from terrestrial radiation exposures studied in the past; therefore, analyses of galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) in animal models must be conducted and correctly applied to the human experience. Secondly, a large enough population of exposed astronauts must exist in order to obtain the data necessary to see any potential statistically significant differences between the astronauts and the control population. Thirdly, confounders and effect modifiers, such as smoking, diet, and other space stressors, must be correctly identified and controlled for in those analyses. In order to begin work assessing the astronaut population, the earliest groups of astronauts (selection groups 1-7) provide a unique model. These astronauts were relatively homogenous, white males whose lifestyle characteristics were similar to an average U.S. citizen of the same birth cohort. This work reviews radiation exposure levels, age, and causes of mortality among these early NASA astronauts and discusses the benefits and limitations of assessing such a cohort for radiation-induced cancer risk.

Milder, Caitlin M.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Assessing the Risk of Crew Injury Due to Dynamic Loads During Spaceflight

Spaceflight requires tremendous amounts of energy to achieve Earth orbit and to attain escape velocity for interplanetary missions. Although the majority of the energy is managed in such a way as to limit the accelerations on the crew, several mission phases may result in crew exposure to dynamic loads. In the automotive industry, risk of serious injury can be tolerated because the probability of a crash is remote each time a person enters a vehicle, resulting in a low total risk of injury. For spaceflight, the level of acceptable injury risk must be lower to achieve a low total risk of injury because the dynamic loads are expected on each flight. To mitigate the risk of injury due to dynamic loads, the NASA Human Research Program has developed a research plan to inform the knowledge gaps and develop relevant tools for assessing injury risk. The risk of injury due to dynamic loads can be further subdivided into extrinsic and intrinsic risk factors. Extrinsic risk factors include the vehicle dynamic profile, seat and restraint design, and spacesuit design. Human tolerance to loads varies considerably depending on the direction, amplitude, and rise-time of acceleration therefore the orientation of the body to the dynamic vector is critical to determining crew risk of injury. Although a particular vehicle dynamic profile may be safe for a particular design, the seat, restraint, and suit designs can affect the risk of injury due to localized effects. In addition, characteristics intrinsic to the crewmember may also contribute to the risk of injury, such as crewmember sex, age, anthropometry, and deconditioning due to spaceflight, and each astronaut may have a different risk profile because of these factors. The purpose of the research plan is to address any knowledge gaps in the risk factors to mitigate injury risk. Methods for assessing injury risk have been well documented in other analogous industries and include human volunteer testing, human exposure to dynamic environments, post-mortem human subject (PMHS) testing, animal testing, anthropomorphic test devices (ATD), dynamic models of the human, numerical models of ATDs, and numerical models of the human. Each has inherent strengths and limitations. For example, human volunteer testing is advantageous because a population can be selected that is similar to the astronaut corps; however, because of the inherent ethical limitations, only sub-injurious conditions can be tested. PMHSs can be tested in a variety of conditions including injurious levels, but the responses are not completely analogous to living human subjects. In addition, it is exceedingly difficult to select a PMHS population that is similar to the astronaut corps. ATDs are currently widely used in the automotive industry and military because they are highly repeatable and durable. Unfortunately, because they are mechanical models of the human body, the biofidelity of the responses are limited to dynamic conditions used to validate the ATD. Numerical models of the ATD, in addition to the strengths and limitations for ATDs, are easy to use for a variety of designs before a design is fabricated, but also have additional limitations for ATDs, are easy to use for a variety of designs before a design is fabricated, but also have additional uncertainty. Dynamic models are simple and easy to use, but do not account for localized effects of the seat and suit. Finally, numerical models of the human have the potential to have the most advantages; however, the current models are not validated for the conditions expected during spaceflight. To properly assess spaceflight conditions with numerical human models, human data would be needed to optimize the model responses for those conditions. Using the appropriate assessment method with the knowledge gained for each risk factor, an appropriate approach for mitigating the risk of injury due to dynamic loads can be developed ensuring crew safety in future NASA vehicles.

Somers, J. T.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Humans to Mars: The Greatest Adventure in Human History

The reasons for a human mission to Mars are many and include (1) World technological leadership, (2) Enhanced national security, (3) Enhanced economic vitality, (4) The human urge to explore new and distant frontiers, (5) Scientific discovery (how did Mars evolve from an early Earth-like, hospitable planet to its present inhospitable state? Is there life on Mars?) (6) Inspiring the American public and the next generation of scientists and engineers (following the launch of Sputnik I by the USSR on October 4, 1957, the U. S. and the rest of the world witnessed a significant increase in the number of students going into science and engineering), (7) Develop new technologies for potential non-space spin-off applications, and, (8) Enhanced national prestige, etc. Other reasons for colonizing the Red Planet are more catastrophic in nature, including Mars as a safe haven for the survival of the human species in the event of an impact with a large asteroid (remember the demise of the dinosaurs 65-million years as a result of an asteroid impact!). Some have also suggested that the colonization of Mars may be a solution to the global exponential population explosion on our planet! A human mission to and the colonization of the Red Planet requires multi-disciplined expertise in many areas including engineering, technology, science, human health and medicine and the human psychological and behavior. To capture the relevant areas of needed expertise, we have invited a group of more than 70 U. S. and foreign experts in these areas, including astronauts, scientists, engineers, technologists, medical doctors, psychologists and economists to share their views and thoughts on a human mission to Mars.

Levine, Joel S.↗
NASA NTRS1982

The noise impact of proposed runway alternatives at Craig Airport

Four proposed runway expansion alternatives at Craig Airport in Jacksonville, Florida have been assessed with respect to their forecasted noise impact in the year 2005. The assessment accounts for population distributions around the airport and human subjective response to noise, as well as the distribution of noise levels in the surrounding community (footprints). The impact analysis was performed using the Airport-noise Levels and Annoyance Model (ALAMO), an airport community response model recently developd at Langley Research Center.

Deloach, R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Evaluation of human response to structural vibration induced by sonic boom

This paper addresses the topic of building vibration response to sonic boom and the evaluation of the associated human response to this vibration. The paper reexamines some of the issues addressed in the previous extensive coverage of the topic, primarily by NASA, and attempts to offer a fresh viewpoint for some of the problems that may assist in reassessing the potential impact of sonic boom over populated areas. The topics addressed are: (1) human response to vibration; (2) criteria for, and acoustic signature of rattle; (3) structural response to shaped booms, including definition of two new descriptors for assessing the structural response to sonic boom; and (4) a detailed review of the previous NASA/FAA Sonic Boom Test Program involving structural response measurements at Edwards AFB and an initial estimate of structural response to sonic booms from possible high speed civil transport configurations. Finally, these estimated vibration responses are shown to be substantially greater than the human response and rattle criteria developed earlier.

Sutherland, L. C.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Effects of Amazonian Flying Rivers on Frog Biodiversity and Populations in the Atlantic Rainforest

Given the speed at which humans are changing the climate, species with high degrees of endemism may not have time to avoid extinction through adaptation. We investigated through teleconnection analysis the origin of rainfall that determines the phylogenetic diversity of rainforest frogs and the effects of microclimate differences in shaping the morphological traits of isolated populations (which contribute to greater phylogenetic diversity and speciation). We also investigated through teleconnection analysis how deforestation in Amazonia can affect ecosystem services that are fundamental to maintaining the climate of the Atlantic rainforest biodiversity hotspot. Seasonal winds known as flying rivers carry water vapor from Amazonia to the Atlantic Forest, and the breaking of this ecosystem service could lead Atlantic Forest species to population decline and extinction in the short term. Our results suggest that the selection of morphological traits that shape Atlantic Forest frog diversity and their population dynamics are influenced by the Amazonian flying rivers. Our results also suggest that the increases of temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean due to global warming and in the Amazon forest due to deforestation are already breaking this cycle and threaten the biodiversity of the Atlantic Forest hotspot.

anurans↗
NASA NTRS2008

Applications of Human Factors in Space

The main question for human factors practitioners is to determine if the user population can be accommodated within a design. Given the wide range of variables feeding into a design, just one of which is human factors, oftentimes designers will have restrictions that may potentially impact the level of accommodation. This paper focuses on two case studies where there have been impacts at the design level that may be detrimental to the ability of the design to meet certain criteria. The studies use novel approaches to determine what, if any, changes in population accommodation levels have occurred and what factors are important when manipulating the design in the future. The results of these studies provide a backbone for future analyses when working with design considerations.

Rajulu, Sudhakar↗
NASA NTRS2002

Radiation Effect on Human Tissue

Predicting the occurrence of human cancer following exposure of an epidemiologic population to any agent causing genetic damage is a difficult task. To an approximation, this is because the uncertainty of uniform exposure to the damaging agent, and the uncertainty of uniform processing of that damage within a complex set of biological variables, degrade the confidence of predicting the delayed expression of cancer as a relatively rare event within clinically normal individuals. This situation begs the need for alternate controlled experimental models that are predictive for the development of human cancer following exposures to agents causing genetic damage. Such models historically have not been of substantial proven value. It is more recently encouraging, however, that developments in molecular and cell biology have led to an expanded knowledge of human carcinogenesis, and of molecular markers associated with that process. It is therefore appropriate to consider new laboratory models developed to accomodate that expanded knowledge in order to assess the cancer risks associated with exposures to genotoxic agents. When ionizing radiation of space is the genotoxic agent, then a series of additional considerations for human cancer risk assessment must also be applied. These include the dose of radiation absorbed by tissue at different locations in the body, the quality of the absorbed radiation, the rate at which absorbed dose accumulates in tissue, the way in which absorbed dose is measured and calculated, and the alterations in incident radiation caused by shielding materials. It is clear that human cancer risk assessment for damage caused by ionizing radiation is a multidisciplinary responsibility, and that within this responsibility no single discipline can hold disproportionate sway if a risk assessment model of radiation-induced human cancer is to be developed that has proven value. Biomolecular and cellular markers from the work reported here are considered for use in assessing human cancer risk related to exposure to space radiation. This potential use must be integrated within the specified multidisciplinary context in order to create a new tool of molecular epidemiology that can hopefully then realistically assess this cancer risk.

Richmond, Robert C.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Application of NASA's Advanced Life Support Technologies in Polar Regions

The problems of obtaining adequate pure drinking water and disposing of liquid and solid waste in the U.S Arctic, a region where virtually all water is frozen solid for much of the year, has led to unsanitary solutions. Sanitation and a safe water supply are particularly problems in rural villages. These villages are without running water and use plastic buckets for toilets. The outbreak of diseases is believed to be partially attributable to exposure to human waste and lack of sanitation. Villages with the most frequent outbreaks of disease are those in which running water is difficult to obtain. Waste is emptied into open lagoons, rivers, or onto the sea coast. It does not degrade rapidly and in addition to affecting human health, can be harmful to the fragile ecology of the Arctic and the indigenous wildlife and fish populations. Current practices for waste management and sanitation pose serious human hazards as well as threaten the environment. NASA's unique knowledge of water/wastewater treatment systems for extreme environments, identified in the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment report entitled An Alaskan Challenge: Native Villagt Sanitation, may offer practical solutions addressing the issues of safe drinking water and effective sanitation practices in rural villages. NASA's advanced life support technologies are being combined with Arctic science and engineering knowledge to address the unique needs of the remote communities of Alaska through the Advanced Life Systems for Extreme Environments (ALSEE) project. ALSEE is a collaborative effort involving the NASA, the State of Alaska, the University of Alaska, the North Slope Borough of Alaska, Ilisagvik College in Barrow and the National Science Foundation (NSF). The focus is a major issue in the State of Alaska and other areas of the Circumpolar North; the health and welfare of its people, their lives and the subsistence lifestyle in remote communities, economic opportunity, and care for the environment. As advanced technologies are transferred to the commercial sector the ALSEE project Offers the potential for development of new industries in Alaska to supply the products to support remote communities of the globe.

Bubenheim, David L.↗
NASA NTRS2014

A Population Pharmacokinetic Model for Disposition in Plasma, Saliva and Urine of Scopolamine after Intranasal Administration to Healthy Human Subjects

An intranasal gel formulation of scopolamine (INSCOP) was developed for the treatment of Space Motion Sickness. The bioavailability and pharmacokinetics (PK) were evaluated under the Food and Drug Administration guidelines for clinical trials with an Investigative New Drug (IND) protocol. The aim of this project was to develop a PK model that can predict the relationship between plasma, saliva and urinary scopolamine concentrations using data collected from the IND clinical trials with INSCOP. Methods: Twelve healthy human subjects were administered three dose levels (0.1, 0.2 and 0.4 mg) of INSCOP. Serial blood, saliva and urine samples were collected between 5 min and 24 h after dosing and scopolamine concentrations were measured by using a validated LC‐MS‐MS assay. Pharmacokinetic Compartmental models, using actual dosing and sampling times, were built using Phoenix (version 1.2). Model selection was based on the likelihood ratio test on the difference of criteria (‐2LL) and comparison of the quality of fit plots. Results: The best structural model for INSCOP (minimal ‐2LL= 502.8) was established. It consisted of one compartment each for plasma, saliva and urine, respectively, which were connected with linear transport processes except the nonlinear PK process from plasma to saliva compartment. The best‐fit estimates of PK parameters from individual PK compartmental analysis and Population PK model analysis were shown in Tables 1 and 2, respectively. Conclusion: A population PK model that could predict population and individual PK of scopolamine in plasma, saliva and urine after dosing was developed and validated. Incorporating a non‐linear transfer from plasma to saliva compartments resulted in a significantly improved model fitting. The model could be used to predict scopolamine plasma concentrations from salivary and urinary drug levels, allowing non‐invasive therapeutic monitoring of scopolamine in space and other remote environments.

Wu, L.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Orbital Debris Research at NASA

The United States has one of the most active programs of research of the orbital debris environment in the world. Much of the research is conducted by NASA s Orbital Debris Program Office at the Johnson Space Center. Past work by NASA has led to the development of national space policy which seeks to limit the growth of the debris population and limit the risk to spacecraft and humans in space and on the Earth from debris. NASA has also been instrumental in developing consistent international policies and standards. Much of NASA's efforts have been to measure and characterize the orbital debris population. The U.S. Department of Defense tracks and catalogs spacecraft and large debris with it's Space Surveillance Network while NASA concentrates on research on smaller debris. In low Earth orbit, NASA has utilized short wavelength radars such as Haystack, HAX, and Goldstone to statistically characterize the population in number, size, altitude, and inclination. For higher orbits, optical telescopes have been used. Much effort has gone into the understanding and removal of observational biases from both types of measurements. NASA is also striving to understand the material composition and shape characteristics of debris to assess these effects on the risk to operational spacecraft. All of these measurements along with data from ground tests provide the basis for near- and long-term modeling of the environment. NASA also develops tools used by spacecraft builders and operators to evaluate spacecraft and mission designs to assess compliance with debris standards and policies which limit the growth of the debris environment.

Stansbery, Eugene G.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Microbial astronauts: assembling microbial communities for advanced life support systems

Extension of human habitation into space requires that humans carry with them many of the microorganisms with which they coexist on Earth. The ubiquity of microorganisms in close association with all living things and biogeochemical processes on Earth predicates that they must also play a critical role in maintaining the viability of human life in space. Even though bacterial populations exist as locally adapted ecotypes, the abundance of individuals in microbial species is so large that dispersal is unlikely to be limited by geographical barriers on Earth (i.e., for most environments "everything is everywhere" given enough time). This will not be true for microbial communities in space where local species richness will be relatively low because of sterilization protocols prior to launch and physical barriers between Earth and spacecraft after launch. Although community diversity will be sufficient to sustain ecosystem function at the onset, richness and evenness may decline over time such that biological systems either lose functional potential (e.g., bioreactors may fail to reduce BOD or nitrogen load) or become susceptible to invasion by human-associated microorganisms (pathogens) over time. Research at the John F. Kennedy Space Center has evaluated fundamental properties of microbial diversity and community assembly in prototype bioregenerative systems for NASA Advanced Life Support. Successional trends related to increased niche specialization, including an apparent increase in the proportion of nonculturable types of organisms, have been consistently observed. In addition, the stability of the microbial communities, as defined by their resistance to invasion by human-associated microorganisms, has been correlated to their diversity. Overall, these results reflect the significant challenges ahead for the assembly of stable, functional communities using gnotobiotic approaches, and the need to better define the basic biological principles that define ecosystem processes in the space environment. Copyright 2004 Springer-Verlag.

Review↗
NASA NTRS1999

Chemoprevention of Radiation Induced Rat Mammary Neoplasms

Radiations encountered in space include protons and heavy ions such as iron as well as their secondaries. The relative biological effect (RBE) of these ions is not known, particularly at the doses and dose-rates expected for planetary missions. Neutrons, are not particularly relevant to space travel, but have been found experimentally to have an increase in their RBE with decreasing dose. If a similar trend of increasing RBE with decreasing dose is present for heavy ions and protons during irradiation in space, the small doses received during space travel could potentially have substantial carcinogenic risk. Clearly more investigation of the effects of heavy ions and protons is needed before accurate risk assessment for prolonged travel in space can be done. One means to mitigate the increased risk of cancer due to radiation exposure in space is by developing effective countermeasures that can reduce the incidence of tumor development. Tamoxifen has recently been shown to be an effective chemopreventive agent in both animal models and humans for the prevention of mammary tumors. Tamoxifen is a unique drug, with a highly specific mechanism of action affecting a specific radiation-sensitive population of epithelial cells in the mammary gland. In human studies, the annual incidence of a primary tumor in the contralateral breast of women with previous breast cancer is about 8 per 1000, making them an exceedingly high-risk group for the development of breast cancer. In this high risk group, treated with tamoxifen, daily, for 2 years, the incidence of a new primary tumor in the contralateral breast was approximately one third of that noted in the non-tamoxifen treatment group. Tamoxifen antagonizes the action of estrogen by competing for the nuclear receptor complex thereby altering the association of the receptor complex and nuclear binding sites. Its effects in reducing the development of breast cancer could be accomplished by controlling clinically undetectable microcancers, arresting preneoplastic lesions, or correcting abnormal environments which predispose to high risk of malignant transformation.

Huso, David L.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Tissue-engineered human bioartificial muscles expressing a foreign recombinant protein for gene therapy

Murine skeletal muscle cells transduced with foreign genes and tissue engineered in vitro into bioartificial muscles (BAMs) are capable of long-term delivery of soluble growth factors when implanted into syngeneic mice (Vandenburgh et al., 1996b). With the goal of developing a therapeutic cell-based protein delivery system for humans, similar genetic tissue-engineering techniques were designed for human skeletal muscle stem cells. Stem cell myoblasts were isolated, cloned, and expanded in vitro from biopsied healthy adult (mean age, 42 +/- 2 years), and elderly congestive heart failure patient (mean age, 76 +/- 1 years) skeletal muscle. Total cell yield varied widely between biopsies (50 to 672 per 100 mg of tissue, N = 10), but was not significantly different between the two patient groups. Percent myoblasts per biopsy (73 +/- 6%), number of myoblast doublings prior to senescence in vitro (37 +/- 2), and myoblast doubling time (27 +/- 1 hr) were also not significantly different between the two patient groups. Fusion kinetics of the myoblasts were similar for the two groups after 20-22 doublings (74 +/- 2% myoblast fusion) when the biopsy samples had been expanded to 1 to 2 billion muscle cells, a number acceptable for human gene therapy use. The myoblasts from the two groups could be equally transduced ex vivo with replication-deficient retroviral expression vectors to secrete 0.5 to 2 microg of a foreign protein (recombinant human growth hormone, rhGH)/10(6) cells/day, and tissue engineered into human BAMs containing parallel arrays of differentiated, postmitotic myofibers. This work suggests that autologous human skeletal myoblasts from a potential patient population can be isolated, genetically modified to secrete foreign proteins, and tissue engineered into implantable living protein secretory devices for therapeutic use.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2000

Growth and differentiation of human lens epithelial cells in vitro on matrix

PURPOSE: To characterize the growth and maturation of nonimmortalized human lens epithelial (HLE) cells grown in vitro. METHODS: HLE cells, established from 18-week prenatal lenses, were maintained on bovine corneal endothelial (BCE) extracellular matrix (ECM) in medium supplemented with basic fibroblast growth factor (FGF-2). The identity, growth, and differentiation of the cultures were characterized by karyotyping, cell morphology, and growth kinetics studies, reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), immunofluorescence, and Western blot analysis. RESULTS: HLE cells had a male, human diploid (2N = 46) karyotype. The population-doubling time of exponentially growing cells was 24 hours. After 15 days in culture, cell morphology changed, and lentoid formation was evident. Reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) indicated expression of alphaA- and betaB2-crystallin, fibroblast growth factor receptor 1 (FGFR1), and major intrinsic protein (MIP26) in exponential growth. Western analyses of protein extracts show positive expression of three immunologically distinct classes of crystallin proteins (alphaA-, alphaB-, and betaB2-crystallin) with time in culture. By Western blot analysis, expression of p57(KIP2), a known marker of terminally differentiated fiber cells, was detectable in exponential cultures, and levels increased after confluence. MIP26 and gamma-crystallin protein expression was detected in confluent cultures, by using immunofluorescence, but not in exponentially growing cells. CONCLUSIONS: HLE cells can be maintained for up to 4 months on ECM derived from BCE cells in medium containing FGF-2. With time in culture, the cells demonstrate morphologic characteristics of, and express protein markers for, lens fiber cell differentiation. This in vitro model will be useful for investigations of radiation-induced cataractogenesis and other studies of lens toxicity.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Effect of Future Ambient Air Pollution on Human Premature Mortality to 2100 Using Output from the ACCMIP Model Ensemble

Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM(sub 2.5)) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air-pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths per year), likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382000 (121000 to 728000) deaths per year in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths per year in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM(sub 2.5) concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios, due to projected reductions in emissions, and are associated with avoided premature mortality, particularly in 2100: between 2.39 and 1.31 million deaths per year for the four RCPs. The global mortality burden of PM(sub 2.5) is estimated to decrease from 1.70 (1.30 to 2.10) million deaths per year in 2000 to between 0.95 and 1.55 million deaths per year in 2100 for the four RCPs due to the combined effect of decreases in PM(sub 2.5) concentrations and changes in population and baseline mortality rates. Trends in future air-pollution-related mortality vary regionally across scenarios, reflecting assumptions for economic growth and air pollution control specific to each RCP and region. Mortality estimates differ among chemistry climate models due to differences in simulated pollutant concentrations, which is the greatest contributor to overall mortality uncertainty for most cases assessed here, supporting the use of model ensembles to characterize uncertainty. Increases in exposed population and baseline mortality rates of respiratory diseases magnify the impact on premature mortality of changes in future air pollutant concentrations and explain why the future global mortality burden of air pollution can exceed the current burden, even where air pollutant concentrations decrease.

Silva, Raquel A.↗