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NASA NTRS2017

Acute Meteorite Dust Exposure and Pulmonary Inflammation - Implications for Human Space Exploration

The previous manned missions to the Moon represent milestones of human ingenuity, perseverance, and intellectual curiosity. However, one of the major ongoing concerns is the array of hazards associated with lunar surface dust. Not only did the dust cause mechanical and structural integrity issues with the suits, the dust 'storm' generated upon reentrance into the crew cabin caused "lunar hay fever" and "almost blindness [1-3]" (Figure 1). It was further reported that the allergic response to the dust worsened with each exposure [4]. The lack of gravity exacerbated the exposure, requiring the astronauts to wear their helmet within the module in order to avoid breathing the irritating particles [1]. Due to the prevalence of these high exposures, the Human Research Roadmap developed by NASA identifies the Risk of Adverse Health and Performance Effects of Celestial Dust Exposure as an area of concern [5]. Extended human exploration will further increase the probability of inadvertent and repeated exposures to celestial dusts. Going forward, hazard assessments of celestial dusts will be determined through sample return efforts prior to astronaut deployment. Studies on the lunar highland regolith indicate that the dust is not only respirable but also reactive [2, 6-9], and previous studies concluded that it is moderately toxic; generating a greater response than titanium oxide but a lower response than quartz [6]. The presence of reactive oxygen species (ROS) on the surface of the dust has been implicated. However, there is actually little data related to physicochemical characteristics of particulates and pulmonary toxicity, especially as it relates to celestial dust exposure. As a direct response to this deficit, the present study evaluates the role of a particulate's innate geochemical features (e.g., bulk chemistry, internal composition, morphology, size, and reactivity) in generating adverse toxicological responses in vitro and in vivo. This highly interdisciplinary study evaluates the relative toxicity of six meteorite samples representing either basalt or regolith breccia on the surfaces of the Moon, Mars, and Asteroid 4Vesta (Table 1); three potential candidates for future human exploration or colonization. Terrestrial mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB) is also used for comparison as a control sample.

Harrington, A. D.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Renal Stone Risk during Spaceflight: Assessment and Countermeasure Validation

NASA's Vision for Space Exploration centers on exploration class missions including the goals of returning to the moon and landing on Mars. One of NASA's objectives is to focus research on astronaut health and the development of countermeasures that will protect crewmembers during long duration voyages. Exposure to microgravity affects human physiology and results in changes in the urinary chemical composition favoring urinary supersaturation and an increased risk of stone formation. Nephrolithiasis is a multifactorial disease and development of a renal stone is significantly influenced by both dietary and environmental factors. Previous results from long duration Mir and short duration Shuttle missions have shown decreased urine volume, pH, and citrate levels and increased calcium. Citrate, an important inhibitor of calcium-containing stones, binds with urinary calcium reducing the amount of calcium available to form stones. Citrate inhibits renal stone recurrence by preventing crystal growth, aggregation, and nucleation and is one of the most common therapeutic agents used to prevent stone formation. Methods: Thirty long duration crewmembers (29 male, 1 female) participated in this study. 24-hour urines were collected and dietary monitoring was performed pre-, in-, and postflight. Crewmembers in the treatment group received two potassium citrate (KCIT) pills, 10 mEq/pill, ingested daily beginning 3 days before launch, all in-flight days and through 14 days postflight. Urinary biochemical and dietary analyses were completed. Results: KCIT treated subjects exhibited decreased urinary calcium excretion and maintained the levels of calcium oxalate supersaturation risk at their preflight levels. The increased urinary pH levels in these subjects reduced the risk of uric acid stones. Discussion: The current study investigated the use of potassium citrate as a countermeasure to minimize the risk of stone formation during ISS missions. Results suggest that supplementation with potassium citrate decreases the risk of stone formation during and immediately after spaceflight.

Whitson, Peggy A.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Cancer Risk Assessment for Space Radiation

Predicting the occurrence of human cancer following exposure to any agent causing genetic damage is a difficult task. This is because the uncertainty of uniform exposure to the damaging agent, and the uncertainty of uniform processing of that damage within a complex set of biological variables, degrade the confidence of predicting the delayed expression of cancer as a relatively rare event within any given clinically normal individual. The radiation health research priorities for enabling long-duration human exploration of space were established in the 1996 NRC Report entitled "Radiation Hazards to Crews of Interplanetary Missions: Biological Issues and Research Strategies". This report emphasized that a 15-fold uncertainty in predicting radiation-induced cancer incidence must be reduced before NASA can commit humans to extended interplanetary missions. That report concluded that the great majority of this uncertainty is biologically based, while a minority is physically based due to uncertainties in radiation dosimetry and radiation transport codes. Since that report, the biologically based uncertainty has remained large, and the relatively small uncertainty associated with radiation dosimetry has increased due to the considerations raised by concepts of microdosimetry. In a practical sense, however, the additional uncertainties introduced by microdosimetry are encouraging since they are in a direction of lowered effective dose absorbed through infrequent interactions of any given cell with the high energy particle component of space radiation. The biological uncertainty in predicting cancer risk for space radiation derives from two primary facts. 1) One animal tumor study has been reported that includes a relevant spectrum of particle radiation energies, and that is the Harderian gland model in mice. Fact #1: Extension of cancer risk from animal models, and especially from a single study in an animal model, to humans is inherently uncertain. 2) One human database is predominantly used for assessing cancer risk caused by space radiation, and that is the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Fact #2: The atomic-bomb-survivor database, itself a remarkable achievement, contains uncertainties. These include the actual exposure to each individual, the radiation quality of that exposure, and the fact that the exposure was to acute doses of predominantly low-LET radiation, not to chronic exposures of high-LET radiation expected on long-duration interplanetary manned missions.

Richmond, Robert C.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainties for Mars Missions

Projecting cancer risks from exposure to space radiation is highly uncertain because of the absence of data for humans and because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating late effects from the high-energy and charge (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays (GCR). Cancer risk projections involve many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to the lack of data and knowledge. We discuss an uncertainty assessment within the linear-additivity model using the approach of Monte Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions that represent the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify the overall uncertainty in risk projections. Calculations are performed using the space radiation environment and transport codes for several Mars mission scenarios. This approach leads to estimates of the uncertainties in cancer risk projections of 400-600% for a Mars mission. The uncertainties in the quality factors are dominant. Using safety standards developed for low-Earth orbit, long-term space missions (>90 days) outside the Earth's magnetic field are currently unacceptable if the confidence levels in risk projections are considered. Because GCR exposures involve multiple particle or delta-ray tracks per cellular array, our results suggest that the shape of the dose response at low dose rates may be an additional uncertainty for estimating space radiation risks.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning for the Validation of Expert-Elicited Causal Risk Diagrams

Exposure to spaceflight poses risk to human health in complex ways. To help manage this risk, the Human Systems Risk Board (HSRB) at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) maintains a set of causal diagrams that attempt to explain how spaceflight hazards generate health risks and lead to adverse outcomes both in-mission, immediately post-mission, and over the long term. These causal risk diagrams are formulated as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and can function as knowledge graphs of connected risks and outcomes. These DAGs have proven useful for communication, and, through network analysis, have allowed for the identification of structurally important factors in the risk network. However, the utility these DAGs provide is directly proportional to their verisimilitude, making assessment of this trait using empirical data – whether from actual human spaceflight or various spaceflight analogue exposures and model organisms – a high priority. In this research we explore the use of machine learning algorithms to learn DAG structure from empirical data as a means of evaluating human-elicited DAG structures. To do so, we test several different graph structure-learning algorithms on data concerning changes in the bones of rats and mice after exposure to either spaceflight or a spaceflight analogue. We explore potential methods for indexing the similarity between each algorithm’s output DAG with all the others and with that of the expert-elicited DAG. We discuss next steps in this ongoing line of research and open science initiatives underway to complete them.

directed acyclic graphs↗

NASA NTRS2002

Visualization of particle flux in the human body on the surface of Mars

For a given galactic cosmic ray (GCR) environment, information on the particle flux of protons, alpha particles, and heavy ions, that varies with respect to the topographical altitude on the Martian surface, are needed for planning exploration missions to Mars. The Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) mission with its Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) instrument has been providing precise topographical surface map of the Mars. With this topographical data, the particle flux at the Martian surface level through the CO2 atmospheric shielding for solar minimum and solar maximum conditions are calculated. These particle flux calculations are then transported first through an anticipated shielding of a conceptual shelter with several water equivalent shield values (up to 50 g/cm2 of water in steps of 5 g/cm2) considered to represent a surface habitat, and then into the human body. Model calculations are accomplished utilizing the HZETRN, QMSFRG, and SUM-MARS codes. Particle flux calculations for 12 different locations in the human body were considered from skin depth to the internal organs including the blood-forming organs (BFO). Visualization of particle flux in the human body at different altitudes on the Martian surface behind a known shielding is anticipated to provide guidance for assessing radiation environment risk on the Martian surface for future human missions.

NASA Center JSC↗

NASA NTRS2013

NASA Human Research Program Space Radiation Program Element

The goal of the NASA Human Research Program's Space Radiation Program Element is to ensure that crews can safely live and work in the space radiation environment. Current work is focused on developing the knowledge base and tools required for accurate assessment of health risks resulting from space radiation exposure including cancer and circulatory and central nervous system diseases, as well as acute risks from solar particle events. Division of Space Life Sciences (DSLS) Space Radiation Team scientists work at multiple levels to advance this goal, with major projects in biological risk research; epidemiology; and physical, biophysical, and biological modeling.

Chappell, Lori↗

NASA NTRS2000

Critical Questions for Space Human Factors

Traditional human factors contributions to NASA's crewed space programs have been rooted in the classic approaches to quantifying human physical and cognitive capabilities and limitations in the environment of interest, and producing recommendations and standards for the selection or design of mission equipment. Crews then evaluate the interfaces, displays, or equipment, and with the assistance of human factors experts, improvements are made as funds, time, control documentation, and weight allow. We have come a long way from the early spaceflight days, where men with the ' right stuff were the solution to operating whatever equipment was given to them. The large and diverse Shuttle astronaut corps has impacted mission designs to accommodate a wide range of human capabilities and preferences. Yet with existing long duration experience, we have seen the need to address a different set of dynamics when designing for optimal crew performance: critical equipment and mission situations degrade, and human function changes with mission environment, situation, and duration. Strategies for quantifying the critical nature of human factors requirements are being worked by NASA. Any exploration-class mission will place new responsibilities on mission designers to provide the crew with the information and resources to accomplish the mission. The current duties of a Mission Control Center to monitor system status, detect degradation or malfunction, and provide a proven solution, will need to be incorporated into on-board systems to allow the crew autonomous decision-making. The current option to resupply and replace mission systems and resources, including both vehicle equipment and human operators, will be removed, so considerations of maintenance, onboard training, and proficiency assessment are critical to providing a self-sufficient crew. As we 'move in' to the International Space Station, there are tremendous opportunities to investigate our ability to design for autonomous crews. Yet prioritizing the research that can and should be done by NASA will be based on the critical nature of the issues, and the impact of the individual research questions on mission design. The risks to crew health and safety associated with answering critical human factors issues must be properly included and communicated in order to support the Agency's decisions regarding future space programs.

Woolford, Barbara↗

NASA NTRS2007

Validation of Procedures for Monitoring Crewmember Immune Function SDBI-1900, SMO-015 - Integrated Immune

There is ample evidence to suggest that space flight leads to immune system dysregulation. This may be a result of microgravity, confinement, physiological stress, radiation, environment or other mission-associated factors. The clinical risk from prolonged immune dysregulation during space flight are not yet determined, but may include increased incidence of infection, allergy, hypersensitivity, hematological malignancy or altered wound healing. Each of the clinical events resulting from immune dysfunction has the potential to impact mission critical objectives during exploration-class missions. To date, precious little in-flight immune data has been generated to assess this phenomenon. The majority of recent flight immune studies have been post-flight assessments, which may not accurately reflect the in-flight condition. There are no procedures currently in place to monitor immune function or its effect on crew health. The objective of this Supplemental Medical Objective (SMO) is to develop and validate an immune monitoring strategy consistent with operational flight requirements and constraints. This SMO will assess the clinical risks resulting from the adverse effects of space flight on the human immune system and will validate a flight-compatible immune monitoring strategy. Characterization of the clinical risk and the development of a monitoring strategy are necessary prerequisite activities prior to validating countermeasures. This study will determine, to the best level allowed by current technology, the in-flight status of crewmembers immune system. Pre-flight, in-flight and post-flight assessments of immune status, immune function, viral reactivation and physiological stress will be performed. The in-flight samples will allow a distinction between legitimate in-flight alterations and the physiological stresses of landing and readaptation which are believed to alter landing day assessments. The overall status of the immune system during flight (activation, deficiency, dysregulation) and the response of the immune system to specific latent virus reactivation (known to occur during space flight) will be thoroughly assessed. Following completion of the SMO the data will be evaluated to determine the optimal set of assays for routine monitoring of crewmember immune system function, should the clinical risk warrant such monitoring.

Crucian, Brian↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploration Exercise System (EES) Development

Exploration class missions will be required to have an exercise device that is lightweight, has a small footprint, and is capable of providing enough physical stimulus and exercise variability to be an effective countermeasure against muscle and bone loss that results from the microgravity environment. Exploration exercise device prototypes should be evaluated on the ground and in-orbit for feasibility of use in microgravity for long and short duration exploration missions and efficacy of the device to maintain multi-system health and performance. The European Enhanced Exploration Exercise Device (E4D) was selected as the exploration prototype device to be evaluated on ISS for efficacy and feasibility of use as a single multi-modality device for the exercise system for exploration missions. This effort supports the continued development, testing, and verification of E4D hardware and software, internal NASA integration (Human Health and Performance, ISS Vehicle Office, Engineering, and Flight Operations), and external integration across NASA, ESA, and the Danish Aerospace Company (DAC). Providing a feasibility and acceptability assessment from a physiological efficacy and hardware durability standpoint are critical for informing use and risk associated with use on exploration missions. Clearly defined objectives from end users, stakeholders, and Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) will be tested by crewmembers during acute use sessions and long duration use of the exercise device while on ISS. This effort will include a flight study where crewmembers will be asked to exercise using only the E4D during the duration of their mission and participate in a battery of physiological testing to evaluate the efficacy. Hardware is scheduled to launch in FY25 followed by 2 years of operational use after activation and checkout. A final recommendation will be provided to the Artemis program on acceptability of the device for exploration missions. The E4D needs a vibration isolation stabilization (VIS) system that serves as a platform for the exercise hardware to protect the vehicle from loads imparted during exercise. Exploration forward VIS systems will need to protect the vehicle and provide sufficient stabilization for the exerciser during performance of all critical exercises. These enabling capabilities need to be achieved within exploration vehicle power, thermal, mass, and volume limitations.

Kent Lawrence Kalogera↗

NASA NTRS1998

Solar particle events and the International Space Station

The high inclination orbit for the International Space Station poses a risk to astronauts on EVA during occasional periods of enhanced high energy particle flux from the sun known as Solar Particle Events. We are currently unable to predict these events within the few-hour lead time required for evasive action. Compounding the threat is the fact that station construction occurs during increasing solar activity and through the peak of the solar cycle. In this paper we present an overview of the risk, the current methods to provide forecasts of SPEs, and potential risk mitigation options.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

NASA NTRS1999

Monte Carlo mixture model of lifetime cancer incidence risk from radiation exposure on shuttle and international space station

Estimating uncertainty in lifetime cancer risk for human exposure to space radiation is a unique challenge. Conventional risk assessment with low-linear-energy-transfer (LET)-based risk from Japanese atomic bomb survivor studies may be inappropriate for relativistic protons and nuclei in space due to track structure effects. This paper develops a Monte Carlo mixture model (MCMM) for transferring additive, National Institutes of Health multiplicative, and multiplicative excess cancer incidence risks based on Japanese atomic bomb survivor data to determine excess incidence risk for various US astronaut exposure profiles. The MCMM serves as an anchor point for future risk projection methods involving biophysical models of DNA damage from space radiation. Lifetime incidence risks of radiation-induced cancer for the MCMM based on low-LET Japanese data for nonleukemia (all cancers except leukemia) were 2.77 (90% confidence limit, 0.75-11.34) for males exposed to 1 Sv at age 45 and 2.20 (90% confidence limit, 0.59-10.12) for males exposed at age 55. For females, mixture model risks for nonleukemia exposed separately to 1 Sv at ages of 45 and 55 were 2.98 (90% confidence limit, 0.90-11.70) and 2.44 (90% confidence limit, 0.70-10.30), respectively. Risks for high-LET 200 MeV protons (LET=0.45 keV/micrometer), 1 MeV alpha-particles (LET=100 keV/micrometer), and 600 MeV iron particles (LET=180 keV/micrometer) were scored on a per particle basis by determining the particle fluence required for an average of one particle per cell nucleus of area 100 micrometer(2). Lifetime risk per proton was 2.68x10(-2)% (90% confidence limit, 0.79x10(-3)%-0. 514x10(-2)%). For alpha-particles, lifetime risk was 14.2% (90% confidence limit, 2.5%-31.2%). Conversely, lifetime risk per iron particle was 23.7% (90% confidence limit, 4.5%-53.0%). Uncertainty in the DDREF for high-LET particles may be less than that for low-LET radiation because typically there is very little dose-rate dependence. Probability density functions for high-LET radiation quality and dose-rate may be preferable to conventional risk assessment approaches. Nuclear reactions and track structure effects in tissue may not be properly estimated by existing data using in vitro models for estimating RBEs. The method used here is being extended to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft shielding effectiveness in various space radiation environments.

NASA Center LaRC↗

NASA NTRS1999

Genetic Regulation of Charged Particle Mutagenesis in Human Cells

Our studies use a series of syngeneic, and where possible, isogenic human B-lymphoblastoid cell lines to assess the genetic factors that modulate susceptibility apoptosis and their impact on the mutagenic risks of low fluence exposures to 1 GeV Fe ions and 55 MeV protons. These ions are representative of the types of charged particle radiation that are of particular significance for human health in the space radiation environment. The model system employs cell lines derived from the male donor WIL-2. These cells have a single X chromosome and they are hemizygous for one mutation marker, hypoxanthine phosphoribosyltransferase (HPRT). TK6 and WTK1 cells were each derived from descendants of WIL-2 and were each selected as heterozygotes for a second mutation marker, the thymidine kinase (TK) gene located on chromosome 17q. The HPRT and TK loci can detect many different types of mutations, from single basepair substitutions up to large scale loss of heterozygosity (LOH). The single expressing copy of TK in the TK6 and WTKI cell lines is found on the same copy of chromosome 17, and this allele can be identified by a restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) identified when high molecular weight DNA is digested by the SacI restriction endonuclease and hybridized against the cDNA probe for TK. A large series of polymorphic linked markers has been identified that span more than 60 cM of DNA (approx. 60 megabasepairs) and distinguish the copy of chromosome 17 bearing the initially active TK allele from the copy of chromosome 17 bearing the silent TK allele in both TK6 and WTKI cells. TK6 cells express normal p53 protein while WTKI cells express homozygous mutant p53. Expression of mutant p53 can increase susceptibility to x-ray-induced mutations. It's been suggested that the increased mutagenesis in p53 mutant cells might be due to reduced apoptosis.

Kronenberg, Amy↗

NASA NTRS2011

Behavioral Health and Performance (BHP) Work-Rest Cycles

BHP Program Element Goal: Identify, characterize, and prevent or reduce behavioral health and performance risks associated with space travel, exploration and return to terrestrial life. BHP Requirements: a) Characterize and assess risks (e.g., likelihood and consequences). b) Develop tools and technologies to prevent, monitor, and treat adverse outcomes. c) Inform standards. d) Develop technologies to: 1) reduce risks and human systems resource requirements (e.g., crew time, mass, volume, power) and 2) ensure effective human-system integration across exploration mission.

Leveton, Lauren B.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Assessing the Effect of Spaceflight on the Propensity for Astronauts to Develop Disk Herniation

BACKGROUND: A previous study [1] reported that the instantaneous risk of developing a Herniated Nucleus Pulposus (HNP) was higher in astronauts who had flown at least one mission, as compared with those in the corps who had not yet flown. However, the study only analyzed time to HNP after the first mission (if any) and did not account for the possible effects of multiple missions. While many HNP's occurred well into astronauts' careers or in some cases years after retirement, the higher incidence of HNPs relatively soon after completion of space missions appears to indicate that spaceflight may lead to an increased risk of HNP. The purpose of this study was to support the Human System Risk Board assessment of back pain, evaluate the risk of injury due to dynamic loads, and update the previous dataset which contained events up to December 31, 2006. METHODS: Data was queried from the electronic medical record and provided by the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health. The data included all 330 United States astronauts from 1959 through February 2014. Cases were confirmed by Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Computerized Tomography, Myelography, operative findings, or through clinical confirmation with a neurologist or neurosurgeon. In this analysis, astronauts who had an HNP at selection into the corps or had an HNP diagnosis prior to their first flight were excluded. The statistical challenges in using the available data to separate effects of spaceflight from those associated with general astronaut training and lifestyle on propensity to develop HNPs are many. The primary outcome is reported date of first HNP (if any), which at best is only an approximation to the actual time of occurrence. To properly analyze this data with a survival analysis model, one must also know the "exposure" time - i.e. how long each astronaut has been at risk for developing an HNP. If an HNP is reported soon after a mission, is it mission caused or general? If the former, exposure time should be counted from the time of landing (assuming the risk of HNP occurring during a mission is zero). If the latter, exposure time should be counted from the time of selection; however we can't directly know which one to use. In our analysis we take both of these possibilities into account with a competing risks model, wherein two distinct stochastic processes are going on: TG = time to HNP (general) and TS = time to HNP (spaceflight). Under this type of model, whichever of these occurs first is what we observe; in other words we don't observe TG or TS, only min(TG, TS). Here, we parameterized the model in terms of separate Weibull hazard functions for each process and estimated all parameters using maximum likelihood. In addition, we allowed for a "cured fraction" - i.e. the possibility that some astronauts may never develop an HNP. RESULTS: Results will include a depiction of the competing hazard functions as well as a probability curve for the relative likelihood that an HNP reported at a given time after a mission is actually mission caused. Other factors, such as dwell time in microgravity and vehicle landing environment will be explored. An overall assessment as to whether spaceflight truly exacerbates HNP risk will be made.

Feiveson, A. H.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Characterization of Evidence for Human System Risk Assessment

Understanding the kinds of evidence available and using the best evidence to answer a question is critical to evidenced-based decision-making, and it requires synthesis of evidence from a variety of sources. Categorization of human system risks in spaceflight, in particular, focuses on how well the integration and interpretation of all available evidence informs the risk statement that describes the relationship between spaceflight hazards and an outcome of interest. A mature understanding and categorization of these risks requires: 1) sufficient characterization of risk, 2) sufficient knowledge to determine an acceptable level of risk (i.e., a standard), 3) development of mitigations to meet the acceptable level of risk, and 4) identification of factors affecting generalizability of the evidence to different design reference missions. In the medical research community, evidence is often ranked by increasing confidence in findings gleaned from observational and experimental research (e.g., "levels of evidence"). However, an approach based solely on aspects of experimental design is problematic in assessing human system risks for spaceflight. For spaceflight, the unique challenges and opportunities include: (1) The independent variables in most evidence are the hazards of spaceflight, such as space radiation or low gravity, which cannot be entirely duplicated in terrestrial (Earth-based) analogs, (2) Evidence is drawn from multiple sources including medical and mission operations, Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH), spaceflight research (LSDA), and relevant environmental & terrestrial databases, (3) Risk metrics based primarily on LSAH data are typically derived from available prevalence or incidence data, which may limit rigorous interpretation, (4) The timeframe for obtaining adequate spaceflight sample size (n) is very long, given the small population, (5) Randomized controlled trials are unattainable in spaceflight, (6) Collection of personal and environmental data on the astronaut population may create opportunities for advanced analytics and human-environment modeling that goes beyond that achieved in isolated experimental designs; and (7) Translation of relevant research to operations is a complex, transdisciplinary enterprise in which the approach must apply across the physical, biological, behavioral, and social sciences. The approach to synthesizing evidence must address both source and fidelity of data, and reflect the most general attributes of quality of evidence in science and engineering: reliability and validity. The authors are developing a two-factor approach which includes the various kinds of evidence required to understand risks and for the integrated interpretation of all evidence that is essential to develop standards and countermeasures. A unified framework for aggregating and assessing different kinds of evidence provides a consistent, traceable, evidence-based decision-making process to translate research to operations in an environment where engineers, scientists, physicians, and managers all engage in analyzing the trade space of vehicle design, standards, requirements and solutions for spaceflight.

Steinberg, S. L.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Comparison of Health and Performance Risk for Accelerated Mars Mission Scenarios

This document details the results for a quantitative estimate of the difference in human health and performance risk that crews would face for two hypothetical variations on Mars mission scenarios: an Accelerated Mars Mission (AMM) and a Standard Mars Mission(SMM).NASA goals for Mars mission concepts, duration, and tasks have varied over the years. While neither of the cases considered here are likely to accurately represent the initial mission to Mars, the exercise of evaluating significant differences in mission duration from an astronaut health perspective can provide bounding insight to the level of risk that is likely to be encountered in an eventual Mars mission. Medical Probabilistic Risk Assessment using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM)(1–3)and the NASA Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model (NSCR)(4,5) are used here to help mission planners gain the best insight currently available into the expected magnitude of impacts to astronaut health when undertaking a Mars mission. These impacts occur both in-mission as well as in the long-term health of the astronauts post-mission. These evaluations are currently the best available modeling estimates to characterize and bound the health risks in a proposed mission domain where humans have no experience.

Erik Antonsen↗

NASA NTRS1999

Combined effects of space flight factors and radiation on humans

The probability that a dose of ionizing radiation kills a cell is about 10,000 times the probability that the cell will be transformed to malignancy. On the other hand, the number of cells killed required to significantly impact health is about 10,000 times the number that must be transformed to cause a late malignancy. If these two risks, cell killing and malignant transformation, are about equal, then the risk that occurs during a mission is more significant than the risk that occurs after a mission. The latent period for acute irradiation effects (cell killing) is about 2-4 weeks; the latent period for malignancy is 10-20 years. If these statements are approximately true, then the impact of cell killing on health in the low-gravity environment of space flight should be examined to establish an estimate of risk. The objective of this study is to synthesize data and conclusions from three areas of space biology and environmental health to arrive at rational risk assessment for radiations received by spacecraft crews: (1) the increased physiological demands of the space flight environment; (2) the effects of the space flight environment on physiological systems; and (3) the effects of radiation on physiological systems. One physiological system has been chosen: the immune response and its components, consisting of myeloid and lymphoid proliferative cell compartments. Best-case and worst-case scenarios are considered. In the worst case, a doubling of immune-function demand, accompanied by a halving of immune capacity, would reduce the endangering dose to a crew member to around 1 Gy.

Non-NASA Center↗