Tidal flexure zones at ice-sheet margins: comparison of InSAR with an elastic plate model
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glaciology tide remote sensing interferometry↗
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A Model for Earth's Surface Mass Transport: Integrating Polar Ice Sheets and Global Geodetic Observations
No abstract available
Adhikari, Surendra↗
Backscatter Model for the Unusual Radar Properties of the Greenland Ice Sheet
A number of planetary objects exhibit unusual radar polarizaion properties and more recently a similar behavior has been observed over a vast portion of the Earth's surface: the percolation facies of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
percolation↗
Rates of Sea‐Level Rise Are Highly Sensitive to Ice Viscosity Parameters in Model Benchmarks
Glacier flow plays a major role in current and future rates of globally averaged sea-level rise. The viscosity of glacial ice, controlling the rate of flow, decreases as stress increases and is highly sensitive to the value of the stress exponent, $n$, in the constitutive equation for viscous flow. Glaciologists and climate modelers almost exclusively assume $n=3$ when modeling ice flow and projecting sea-level rise through forward modeling. However, recent work suggests that $n\approx 4$ better fits observations, prompting the question: How sensitive are projections of sea-level rise to the value of $n$? We use an established community ice flow model and standard benchmark experiments designed as an idealized representation of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica. While initializing an $n=3$ model to match observations of an $n=4$ ice sheet is possible, we find that incorrectly assuming $n=3$ when in fact $n=4$ dramatically underestimates rates of sea-level rise. The scale of this error grows nonlinearly with the magnitude of the climate forcing, acting to increase projection uncertainties. Additionally, we find that models often account for this stress-dependent rheology mismatch during model initialization in a way that masks this rheological effect in the short term while leaving model outputs vulnerable to larger biases in longer-term projections. Initializations to observations of Pine Island Glacier display similar rheology-mismatch fingerprints to our idealized example.
climate sensitivity↗
Sea-Level Projections from the SeaRISE Initiative
SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) is a community organized modeling effort, whose goal is to inform the fifth IPCC of the potential sea-level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets in the 21st and 22nd century. SeaRISE seeks to determine the most likely ice sheet response to imposed climatic forcing by initializing an ensemble of models with common datasets and applying the same forcing to each model. Sensitivity experiments were designed to quantify the sea-level rise associated with a change in: 1) surface mass balance, 2) basal lubrication, and 3) ocean induced basal melt. The range of responses, resulting from the multi-model approach, is interpreted as a proxy of uncertainty in our sea-level projections. http://websrv.cs .umt.edu/isis/index.php/SeaRISE_Assessment.
Nowicki, Sophie↗
(abstract) Variations in Polarimetric Backscatter of Saline Ice Grown Under Diurnal Thermal Cycling Condition
An experiment was carried out in January 1994 at the Geophysical Research Facility in the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory. To investigate effects on polarimetric scattering signatures of sea ice growth under diurnal temperature variations, an ice sheet was grown for 2.5 days for the thickness of 10 cm and a polarimetric radar operating at C-band was used to obtain backscattering data in conjunction with ice-characterization measurements. The ice sheet was grown in the late morning of January 19, 1994. The initial growth rate was slow due to high insolation and temperature. As the air temperature dropped during the night, the growth rate increased significantly. The air temperature changed drastically from about -10(deg)C to -35(deg)C between day and night. The temperature cycle was repeated during the next day and the growth rate varied in the same manner. The surface of the ice was partially covered by frost flowers and the areal coverage increased as the ice became thicker. Throughout the ice growth duration of 2.5 days, polarimetric backscatter data were collected at roughly every centimeter of ice growth. For each set of radar measurements of saline ice, a set of calibration measurements was carried out with trihedrial corner reflectors and a metallic sphere. Measured polarimetric backscattering coefficients of the ice sheet reveal a strong correlation between radar data and temperature variations. As the temperature increased (decreased), the backscatter increased (decreased) correspondingly. From the ice-characterization data, temperatures of the air, at the ice-air interface, and in the ice layer had the same variation trend. Another interesting experimental observation is that the salinity measured as a function of ice depth from a sample of 10-cm thich ice indicated that the salinity variations had a similar cycle as the temperature; i.e., the salinity profile recorded the history of the temperature variations. Characterization data of the ice sheet are used in a theoretical model for scattering from saline ice with frost cover to explain the observed polarimetric signatures.
characterization polarimetric radar salinity tempe↗
Glacial and marine chronology of Mars
A hydrological model involving episodic oceans and ice sheets on Mars has been presented by Baker, et al. One of the main uncertainties concerning this model is the age and correlation of these events. Even more uncertain are their absolute ages. However, based on stratigraphic and cratering evidence, the most recent occurrence of these events was relatively late in Martian history. The cratering record on Mars can be divided into three general periods: (1) the period of late heavy bombardment; (2) a transition period at the end of late heavy bombardment; and (3) the post heavy bombardment era. The crater size/frequency distribution represented by the period of late heavy bombardment is characterized by a complex curve with a differential-2 slope (cumulative-1) at diameters less than about 50 km diameter, while the post heavy bombardment size distribution has a differential-3 slope (cumulative-2) over the same diameter range. An R plot is presented of the size/freqency distribution of ejecta blanket craters on the Argyre esker plains and similar craters in Hellas. The relative chronology is summarized of oceans, ice sheets, and other major events in Martian history.
Strom, Robert G.↗
Insolation and the Precession Index
Simple nonlinear climate models yield a precession index-like term in the temperature. Despite its importance in the geologic record, the precession index e sin omega, where e is the Earth's orbital eccentricity and omega is the Sun's perigee in the geocentric frame, is not present in the insolation at the top of the atmosphere. Hence there is no one-for-one mapping of 23,000 and 19,000 year periodicities from the insolation to the paleoclimate record; a nonlinear climate model is needed to produce these periods. Two such models, a grey body and an energy balance climate model with an added quadratic term, produce e sin omega terms in temperature. These terms, which without feedback mechanisms achieve extreme values of about plus or minus 0.48 K for the grey body and plus or minus 0.64 K for the energy balance model, simultaneously cool one hemisphere while they warm the other. Moreover, they produce long-term cooling in the northern hemisphere when the Sun's perigee is near northern solstice and long-term warming in the northern hemisphere when the perigee is near southern solstice. Thus this seemingly paradoxical mechanism works against the standard model which requires cool northern summers (Sun far from Earth in northern summer) to build up northern ice sheets, so that if the standard model is correct it may be more efficient than previously thought. Alternatively, the new mechanism could possibly be dominant and indicate southern hemisphere control of the northern ice sheets, wherein the southern oceans undergo a long-term cooling when the Sun is close to the Earth during southern summer. The cold water eventually flows north, cooling the northern hemisphere. This might explain why the northern oceans lag the southern ones when it comes to orbital forcing.
Rubincam, David Parry↗
The Precession Index and a Nonlinear Energy Balance Climate Model
A simple nonlinear energy balance climate model yields a precession index-like term in the temperature. Despite its importance in the geologic record, the precession index e sin (Omega)S, where e is the Earth's orbital eccentricity and (Omega)S is the Sun's perigee in the geocentric frame, is not present in the insolation at the top of the atmosphere. Hence there is no one-for-one mapping of 23,000 and 19,000 year periodicities from the insolation to the paleoclimate record; a nonlinear climate model is needed to produce these long periods. A nonlinear energy balance climate model with radiative terms of form T n, where T is surface temperature and n less than 1, does produce e sin (omega)S terms in temperature; the e sin (omega)S terms are called Seversmith psychroterms. Without feedback mechanisms, the model achieves extreme values of 0.64 K at the maximum orbital eccentricity of 0.06, cooling one hemisphere while simultaneously warming the other; the hemisphere over which perihelion occurs is the cooler. In other words, the nonlinear energy balance model produces long-term cooling in the northern hemisphere when the Sun's perihelion is near northern summer solstice and long-term warming in the northern hemisphere when the aphelion is near northern summer solstice. (This behavior is similar to the inertialess gray body which radiates like T 4, but the amplitude is much lower for the energy balance model because of its thermal inertia.) This seemingly paradoxical behavior works against the standard Milankovitch model, which requires cool northern summers (Sun far from Earth in northern summer) to build up northern ice sheets, so that if the standard model is correct it must be more efficient than previously thought. Alternatively, the new mechanism could possibly be dominant and indicate southern hemisphere control of the northern ice sheets, wherein the southern oceans undergo a long-term cooling when the Sun is far from the Earth during northern summer. The cold water eventually flows north, cooling the northern hemisphere. This might explain why the northern oceans lag the southern ones when it comes to orbital forcing.
Rubincam, David↗
Participation in the GISS EOS Proposal
To model the mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets, Research Assistant Veronique Bugnion developed a snowpack model which embodies a physically based approach to modeling the temperature and density distribution of a snow, firn, and ice mixture. The snowpack model performed satisfactorily in capturing the surface energy balance and melt amounts measured at stations in Greenland and Antarctica. Also a comparison between the predicted extent of the wet snow zone obtained with the model and the same quantity derived from satellite microwave measurements showed excellent agreement. In addition the model's simulated total runoff was close to the best estimates from observations for the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps. Ms. Bugnion and research scientist Andrei Sokolov coupled the snowpack model to the climate submodel of MIT's Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) and integrated forward over the 21st century for a range of climate change scenarios, using forcings from simulations with the IGSM. The changes in mass balance of the ice caps were then translated into changes in sea level. For the scenarios with small to moderate warming, the runoff from Greenland and Antarctica is minimal. For the scenarios with a larger warming, there is a net increase in sea-level of 2-3 cm from Greenland, and a decrease of between 2 and 5 cm from Antarctica. These results show that the net change in sea level which can be expected to follow climatic changes in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, a decrease of 2 to 4 cm or less by the end of the 21st century, is smaller than most previously published estimates.
Stone, Peter H.↗
Physics-Based SNOWPACK Model Improves Representation of Near-Surface Antarctic Snow and Firn Density
Estimates of snow and firn density are required for satellite-altimetry-based retrievals of ice sheet mass balance that rely on volume-to-mass conversions. Therefore, biases and errors in presently used density models confound assessments of ice sheet mass balance and by extension ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. Despite this importance, most contemporary firn densification models rely on simplified semi-empirical methods, which are partially reflected by significant modeled density errors when compared to observations. In this study, we present a new drifting-snow compaction scheme that we have implemented into SNOWPACK, a physics-based land surface snow model. We show that our new scheme improves existing versions of SNOWPACK by increasing simulated near-surface (defined as the top 10 m) density to be more in line with observations (near-surface bias reduction from −44.9 to −5.4 kg m−3). Furthermore, we demonstrate high-quality simulation of near-surface Antarctic snow and firn density at 122 observed density profiles across the Antarctic ice sheet, as indicated by reduced model biases throughout most of the near-surface firn column when compared to two semi-empirical firn densification models (SNOWPACK mean bias=−9.7 kg m−3, IMAU-FDM mean bias=−32.5 kg m−3, GSFC-FDM mean bias=15.5 kg m−3). Notably, our analysis is restricted to the near surface where firn density is most variable due to accumulation and compaction variability driven by synoptic weather and seasonal climate variability. Additionally, the GSFC-FDM exhibits lower mean density bias from 7–10 m (SNOWPACK bias=−22.5 kg m−3, GSFC-FDM bias=10.6 kg m−3) and throughout the entire near surface at high-accumulation sites (SNOWPACK bias=−31.4 kg m−3, GSFC-FDM bias=−4.7 kg m−3). However, we found that the performance of SNOWPACK did not degrade when applied to sites that were not included in the calibration of semi-empirical models. This suggests that SNOWPACK may possibly better represent firn properties in locations without extensive observations and under future climate scenarios, when firn properties are expected to diverge from their present state.
Eric Keenan↗
Glacial and marine chronology of Mars
A summary is given of the glacial and marine chronology of Mars. Hydrological models of oceans and ice sheets, the cratering record, hydrological cycling, and episodic glaciation are discussed. Evidence for a Noachian ocean is evaluated.
Strom, Robert G.↗
A New Geophysical Model Based Algorithm to Detect Melt Events over the Antarctica Ice Sheet using SMAP Microwave Radiometry
No abstract provided
Kimball, John↗
Internal variability of an energy-balance model with delayed albedo effects
A simple, deterministic energy-balance model with possible relevance to climatic variations on the time scale of glaciation cycles, is presented. The lag between ice-sheet extent and zonally-averaged temperature is modeled as a time delay in the ice-albedo feedback. The model exhibits self-sustained oscillations which are quasi-periodic or aperiodic in character. Fourier spectra of solutions have the features of many paleoclimatic records: peaks of variable height and width superimposed on a continuous, red-noise type background.
Bhattacharya, K.↗
Time-Varying Ice Sheet Mask: Implications on Ice-Sheet Mass Balance and Crustal Uplift
Mass-balance estimates of the polar ice sheets presently rely on static ice masks to identify the area under investigation. However, the vintage of available ice masks can differ by more than a decade and the resolution of the imagery used to delineate ice extent can differ by an order of magnitude, despite evidence of ongoing ice-sheet retreat. We show that using a fine resolution, time-varying ice mask significantly improves mass-balance estimates of the northwestern sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet and affects interpretation of local crustal uplift. Accounting for ice margin retreat using a time-varying ice mask between 2003–2015 results in 1.0–6.8% less ice-sheet mass loss relative to assuming one of several existing static ice masks. This indicates that mass-balance estimates that use a static ice mask will progressively overestimate mass loss where the ice sheet is predominantly retreating, meaning a negative bias on mass-balance. This trend is anticipated to be amplified in a future warming scenario unless updated ice masks are incorporated. For altimetry-derived mass-balance estimates, this ice-mask induced bias approaches the magnitude of the ice-sheet-wide uncertainty presently associated with spatiotemporal variability in modeled firn compaction. Further, at five GNET stations, the ice-mask-induced bias is equivalent to 5–15% of the modeled uplift due to elastic deformation. Given present and projected negative trends in Greenland Ice Sheet mass-balance and areal extent, we conclude that studies of its mass-balance should begin incorporating dynamic, periodically updated, fine-resolution ice masks. This methodological refinement will reduce bias in estimates of both ice-sheet mass-balance and crustal uplift.
Kristian K. Kjeldsen↗
The DMRT-ML Model: Numerical Simulations of the Microwave Emission of Snowpacks Based on the Dense Media Radiative Transfer Theory
Microwave radiometer observations have been used to retrieve snow depth and snow water equivalent on both land and sea ice, snow accumulation on ice sheets, melt events, snow temperature, and snow grain size. Modeling the microwave emission from snow and ice physical properties is crucial to improve the quality of these retrievals. It also is crucial to improve our understanding of the radiative transfer processes within the snow cover, and the snow properties most relevant in microwave remote sensing. Our objective is to present a recent microwave emission model and its validation. The model is named DMRT-ML (DMRT Multi-Layer).
Microwave radiometer↗
The DMRT-ML Model: Numerical Simulations of the Microwave Emission of Snowpacks Based on the Dense Media Radiative Transfer Theory
Microwave radiometer observations have been used to retrieve snow depth and snow water equivalent on both land and sea ice, snow accumulation on ice sheets, melt events, snow temperature, and snow grain size. Modeling the microwave emission from snow and ice physical properties is crucial to improve the quality of these retrievals. It also is crucial to improve our understanding of the radiative transfer processes within the snow cover, and the snow properties most relevant in microwave remote sensing. Our objective is to present a recent microwave emission model and its validation. The model is named DMRT-ML (DMRT Multi-Layer), and is available at http:lgge.osug.frpicarddmrtml.
ice sheet↗