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At least 163 records · Page 9

Possible Role for Tectonics in the Evolving Stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet

The history of the Greenland Ice Sheet has been influenced by the geodynamic response to ice sheet fluctuations, and this interaction may help explain past deglaciations under modest climate forcing. We hypothesize that when the Iceland hot spot passed beneath north‐central Greenland, it thinned the lithosphere and left anomalous heat likely with partially melted rock; however, it did not break through the crust to supply voluminous flood basalts. Subsequent Plio‐Pleistocene glacial‐interglacial cycles caused large and rapidly migrating stresses, driving dike formation and other processes that shifted melted rock toward the surface. The resulting increase in surface geothermal flux favored a thinner, faster‐responding ice sheet that was more prone to deglaciation. If this hypothesis of control through changes in geothermal flux is correct, then the long‐term (10 (sup 5) to 10 (sup 6) years) trend now is toward lower geothermal flux, but with higher‐frequency (less than or equal to 10( sup 4) to 10 (sup 5) years) oscillations linked to glacial‐interglacial cycles. Whether the geothermal flux is increasing or decreasing now is not known but is of societal relevance due to its possible impact on ice flow. We infer that projections of the future of the ice sheet and its effect on sea level must integrate geologic and geophysical data as well as glaciological, atmospheric, oceanic, and paleoclimatic information.

Greenland Ice Sheet↗

Shuttle Debris Impact Tool Assessment Using the Modern Design of Experiments

Computational tools have been developed to estimate thermal and mechanical reentry loads experienced by the Space Shuttle Orbiter as the result of cavities in the Thermal Protection System (TPS). Such cavities can be caused by impact from ice or insulating foam debris shed from the External Tank (ET) on liftoff. The reentry loads depend on cavity geometry and certain Shuttle state variables, among other factors. Certain simplifying assumptions have been made in the tool development about the cavity geometry variables. For example, the cavities are all modeled as shoeboxes , with rectangular cross-sections and planar walls. So an actual cavity is typically approximated with an idealized cavity described in terms of its length, width, and depth, as well as its entry angle, exit angle, and side angles (assumed to be the same for both sides). As part of a comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty in reentry loads estimated by the debris impact assessment tools, an effort has been initiated to quantify the component of the uncertainty that is due to imperfect geometry specifications for the debris impact cavities. The approach is to compute predicted loads for a set of geometry factor combinations sufficient to develop polynomial approximations to the complex, nonparametric underlying computational models. Such polynomial models are continuous and feature estimable, continuous derivatives, conditions that facilitate the propagation of independent variable errors. As an additional benefit, once the polynomial models have been developed, they require fewer computational resources to execute than the underlying finite element and computational fluid dynamics codes, and can generate reentry loads estimates in significantly less time. This provides a practical screening capability, in which a large number of debris impact cavities can be quickly classified either as harmless, or subject to additional analysis with the more comprehensive underlying computational tools. The polynomial models also provide useful insights into the sensitivity of reentry loads to various cavity geometry variables, and reveal complex interactions among those variables that indicate how the sensitivity of one variable depends on the level of one or more other variables. For example, the effect of cavity length on certain reentry loads depends on the depth of the cavity. Such interactions are clearly displayed in the polynomial response models.

DeLoach, R.↗

Impact experiments in low-temperature ice

Cubic and cylindrical water ice targets at 257 and 81 K have been subjected to impact velocities between 0.1 and 0.64 km/sec and impact energies of 10 to the 9th-10 to the 10th ergs, yielding craters that are 2-3 times larger than those obtained through equal energy impacts in basaltic targets. On the basis of a similarity analysis, general scaling laws are derived for strength-controlled crater formation and applied in a consideration of crater formation on the icy Galilean and Saturnian satellites. Surface ages are predicted by the analysis to appear greater than those for a silicate crust experiencing the same impact history, on the basis of icy crust impact crater statistics.

Lange, Manfred A.↗

Large Impact Features on Icy Galilean Satellites: Implications for Ice Shell Thickness and Habitability.

Nowhere in the solar system are impact morphologies observed in greater variety than on the icy Galilean satellites. This is very likely a consequence of the structural and thermal state of the crust at the time of impact, and perhaps impact velocity. We have conducted a multi-disciplinary investigation to study how these features formed. The particular combination of geophysical factors and impactor characteristics that is shared by these satellites is likely responsible for these features. We have derived Digital Terrain Models for a number of these features, which have been used as a tool for producing facies maps. Impact features on Ganymede and Callisto are relatable to impact features on Europa, with implications for its ice shell history. We have identified two broad classes of these impact features: (a) Crater forms, which variously include pits, central domes, and crater rims; and (b) Palimpsests (including pene-palimpsests), which all have smooth enclosed central plains, an extensive outer undulating plains unit, concentric arcuate ridges(in the case of pene-palimpsests), and no recognizable rim. The very large, measured volume of the undulating plains unit of the pene-palimpsest Buto, Ganymede, substantially exceeds the amount of target material that could have been both melted and excavated by the impact event itself. Therefore, we conclude that the undulating plains material was derived from a fluid or “slushy” layer in the near-surface target at the time of impact. The recognition of undulating plains as the dominant unit in Memphis and Nidaba, two other palimpsests on Ganymede that we have mapped(which display highly variable crater counts, with Buto being the least cratered),leads us to a working hypothesis that these plains only form where and when the target has substantial near surface fluid or “slush.” By extension, all other impact features on Ganymede and Callisto, such as those with central pits and central domes, formed in targets with no pre-existing, or at most inconsequential, amounts of fluid or “slush.” Supporting this conclusion, modeling by members of our group indicates that the present topography of impact features with central pits and domes can be largely explained by the behavior of ice alone, with no or little contribution from fluids. Our study supports explanations for the formation and final appearance of palimpsests (and pene-palimpsests) that are entirely applicable to this feature class, and sharply distinct from explanations for other impact features (crater forms) on Ganymede and Callisto.

Jeffrey M Moore↗

Arctic Sea Ice in Transformation: A Review of Recent Observed Changes and Impacts on Biology and Human Activity

Sea ice in the Arctic is one of the most rapidly changing components of the global climate system. Over the past few decades, summer areal extent has declined over 30, and all months show statistically significant declining trends. New satellite missions and techniques have greatly expanded information on sea ice thickness, but many uncertainties remain in the satellite data and long-term records are sparse. However, thickness observations and other satellite-derived data indicate a 40 decline in thickness, due in large part to the loss of thicker, older ice cover. The changes in sea ice are happening faster than models have projected. With continued increasing temperatures, summer ice-free conditions are likely sometime in the coming decades, though there are substantial uncertainties in the exact timing and high interannual variability will remain as sea ice decreases. The changes in Arctic sea ice are already having an impact on flora and fauna in the Arctic. Some species will face increasing challenges in the future, while new habitat will open up for other species. The changes are also affecting peoples living and working in the Arctic. Native communities are facing challenges to their traditional ways of life, while new opportunities open for shipping, fishing, and natural resource extraction.

Sea Ice↗

The Role of Aerosols on Precipitation Processes: Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

Cloud microphysics is inevitably affected by the smoke particle (CCN, cloud condensation nuclei) size distributions below the clouds. Therefore, size distributions parameterized as spectral bin microphysics are needed to explicitly study the effects of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud development, rainfall production, and rainfall rates for convective clouds. Recently, a detailed spectral-bin microphysical scheme was implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. The formulation for the explicit spectral bin microphysical processes is based on solving stochastic kinetic equations for the size distribution functions of water droplets (i.e., cloud droplets and raindrops), and several types of ice particles [i.e. pristine ice crystals (columnar and plate-like), snow (dendrites and aggregates), graupel and frozen drops/hail]. Each type is described by a special size distribution function containing many categories (i.e., 33 bins). Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep cloud systems in the west Pacific warm pool region, the sub-tropics (Florida) and midlatitudes using identical thermodynamic conditions but with different concentrations of CCN: a low "clean" concentration and a high "dirty" concentration. Results indicate that the low CCN concentration case produces rainfall at the surface sooner than the high CeN case but has less cloud water mass aloft. Because the spectral-bin model explicitly calculates and allows for the examination of both the mass and number concentration of species in each size category, a detailed analysis of the instantaneous size spectrum can be obtained for these cases. It is shown that since the low (CN case produces fewer droplets, larger sizes develop due to greater condensational and collection growth, leading to a broader size spectrum in comparison to the high CCN case. Sensitivity tests were performed to identify the impact of ice processes, radiation and large-scale influence on cloud-aerosol interactive processes, especially regarding surface rainfall amounts and characteristics (i.e., heavy or convective versus light or stratiform types). In addition, an inert tracer was included to follow the vertical redistribution of aerosols by cloud processes. We will also give a brief review from observational evidence on the role of aerosol on precipitation processes.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Synoptic and Mesoscale Modulation of Dynamic and Thermodynamic Impacts on Central Arctic Sea Ice During MOSAiC

The primary objectives of this proposed project are to determine 1) to what extent dynamic and thermodynamic air‐ice interactions in the Central Arctic are driven by atmospheric synoptic and mesoscale phenomena, and 2) the key processes involved in these interactions. These phenomena include large‐scale features such as fronts, high‐ and low‐pressure systems, low‐level jets, and cloud bands, but may also include smaller‐scale phenomena such as mesoscale instabilities (e.g., symmetric instability or slantwise convection), transient meso‐lows and gravity waves. Dynamic air‐ice interactions include direct atmospheric stress and atmospheric stress divergence/deformation; thermodynamic air‐ice interactions involve the net surface energy budget, especially in association with non‐stratocumulus clouds generally occurring with stronger dynamical forcing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The impact of cloud microphysics and ice nucleation on Southern Ocean clouds assessed with single-column modeling and instrument simulators

Abstract. Supercooled liquid clouds are common at higher latitudes (especially over the Southern Ocean) and are critical for constraining climate projections. We take advantage of the Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE) to perform an analysis of observed and simulated cloud processes over the Southern Ocean in a region and season dominated by supercooled liquid clouds. Using a single-column version of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS), we compare two different cloud microphysical schemes to ground-based observations of cloud, precipitation, and radiation over a 2.5-month period (1 January–17 March 2017). Both schemes are able to reproduce aspects of the cloud and radiation observations during MICRE to within the uncertainty of the data when the thermodynamic profile is prescribed with relaxation. There are differences in water mass and representation of reflectivity between the schemes. A sensitivity study of the cloud microphysics schemes, one a bulk one-moment scheme and the other a two-moment scheme with prediction of mass and number, indicates that several key processes create differences between the schemes. Surface radiative fluxes and total water path are highly sensitive to the formation and fall speed of precipitation. The prediction of hydrometeor number with the two-moment scheme yields a better comparison with observed reflectivity and radiative fluxes, despite predicting higher liquid water contents than observed. With the two-moment scheme, we are also able to test the sensitivity of the results to the input of liquid cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN). The cloud properties and resulting radiative effects are found to be sensitive to the CCN and IN concentrations. More CCN and IN increase liquid and ice water paths, respectively. Thus, both the dynamic environment and aerosols, integrated through the cloud microphysics, are important for properly representing Southern Ocean cloud radiative effects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Impacts of the Variability of Ice Types on the Decline of the Arctic Perennial Sea Ice Cover

The observed rapid decline in the Arctic perennial ice cover is one of the most remarkable signal of change in the Arctic region. Updated data now show an even higher rate of decline of 9.8% per decade than the previous report of 8.9% per decade mainly because of abnormally low values in the last 4 years. To gain insights into this decline, the variability of the second year ice, which is the relatively thin component of the perennial ice cover, and other ice types is studied. The perennial ice cover in the 1990s was observed to be highly variable which might have led to higher production of second year ice and may in part explain the observed ice thinning during the period and triggered further decline. The passive microwave signature of second year ice is also studied and results show that while the signature is different from that of the older multiyear ice, it is surprisingly more similar to that of first year ice. This in part explains why previous estimates of the area of multiyear ice during the winter period are considerably lower than the area of the perennial ice cover during the preceding summer. Four distinct clusters representing radiometrically different types have been identified using multi-channel cluster analysis of passive microwave data. Data from two of these clusters, postulated to come from second year and older multiyear ice regions are also shown to have average thicknesses of 2.4 and 4.1 m, respectively, indicating that the passive microwave data may contain some ice thickness information that can be utilized for mass balance studies. The yearly anomaly maps indicate high gains of first year ice cover in the Arctic during the last decade which means higher production of second year ice and fraction of this type in the declining perennial ice cover. While not the only cause, the rapid decline in the perennial ice cover is in part caused by the increasing fractional component of the thinner second year ice cover that is very vulnerable to total melt due to warming in the Arctic, especially in spring.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗

Mud Volcanoes - Analogs to Martian Cones and Domes (by the Thousands!)

Mud volcanoes are mounds formed by low temperature slurries of gas, liquid, sediments and rock that erupt to the surface from depths of meters to kilometers. They are common on Earth, with estimates of thousands onshore and tens of thousands offshore. Mud volcanoes occur in basins with rapidly-deposited accumulations of fine-grained sediments. Such settings are ideal for concentration and preservation of organic materials, and mud volcanoes typically occur in sedimentary basins that are rich in organic biosignatures. Domes and cones, cited as possible mud volcanoes by previous authors, are common on the northern plains of Mars. Our analysis of selected regions in southern Acidalia Planitia has revealed over 18,000 such features, and we estimate that more than 40,000 occur across the area. These domes and cones strongly resemble terrestrial mud volcanoes in size, shape, morphology, associated flow structures and geologic setting. Geologic and mineralogic arguments rule out alternative formation mechanisms involving lava, ice and impacts. We are studying terrestrial mud volcanoes from onshore and submarine locations. The largest concentration of onshore features is in Azerbaijan, near the western edge of the Caspian Sea. These features are typically hundreds of meters to several kilometers in diameter, and tens to hundreds of meters in height. Satellite images show spatial densities of 20 to 40 eruptive centers per 1000 square km. Many of the features remain active, and fresh mud flows as long as several kilometers are common. A large field of submarine mud volcanoes is located in the Gulf of Cadiz, off the Atlantic coasts of Morocco and Spain. High-resolution sonar bathymetry reveals numerous km-scale mud volcanoes, hundreds of meters in height. Seismic profiles demonstrate that the mud erupts from depths of several hundred meters. These submarine mud volcanoes are the closest morphologic analogs yet found to the features in Acidalia Planitia. We are also conducting laboratory analyses of surface samples collected from mud volcanoes in Azerbaijan, Taiwan and Japan. X-ray diffraction, visible / near infrared reflectance spectroscopy and Raman spectroscopy show that the samples are dominated by mixed-layer smectite clays, along with quartz, calcite and pyrite. Thin section analysis by optical and scanning electron microscopy confirms the mineral identifications. These samples also contain chemical and morphological biosignatures, including common microfossils, with evidence of partial replacement by pyrite. The bulk samples contain approximately 1 wt% total organic carbon and 0.4 mg / gm volatile hydrocarbons. The thousands of features in Acidalia Planitia cited as analogous to terrestrial mud volcanoes clearly represent an important element in the sedimentary record of Mars. Their location, in the distal depocenter for massive Hesperian-age floods, suggests that they contain fine-grained sediments from a large catchment area in the martian highlands. We have proposed these features as a new class of exploration target that can provide access to minimally-altered material from significant depth. By analogy to terrestrial mud volcanoes, these features may also be excellent sites for the sampling martian organics and subsurface microbial life, if such exist or ever existed.

Allen, Carlton C.↗

Field and Satellite Observations of the Formation and Distribution of Arctic Atmospheric Bromine Above a Rejuvenated Sea Ice Cover

Recent drastic reduction of the older perennial sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has resulted in a vast expansion of younger and saltier seasonal sea ice. This increase in the salinity of the overall ice cover could impact tropospheric chemical processes. Springtime perennial ice extent in 2008 and 2009 broke the half-century record minimum in 2007 by about one million km2. In both years seasonal ice was dominant across the Beaufort Sea extending to the Amundsen Gulf, where significant field and satellite observations of sea ice, temperature, and atmospheric chemicals have been made. Measurements at the site of the Canadian Coast Guard Ship Amundsen ice breaker in the Amundsen Gulf showed events of increased bromine monoxide (BrO), coupled with decreases of ozone (O3) and gaseous elemental mercury (GEM), during cold periods in March 2008. The timing of the main event of BrO, O3, and GEM changes was found to be consistent with BrO observed by satellites over an extensive area around the site. Furthermore, satellite sensors detected a doubling of atmospheric BrO in a vortex associated with a spiral rising air pattern. In spring 2009, excessive and widespread bromine explosions occurred in the same region while the regional air temperature was low and the extent of perennial ice was significantly reduced compared to the case in 2008. Using satellite observations together with a Rising-Air-Parcel model, we discover a topographic control on BrO distribution such that the Alaskan North Slope and the Canadian Shield region were exposed to elevated BrO, whereas the surrounding mountains isolated the Alaskan interior from bromine intrusion.

Nghiem, Son V.↗

Comparisons Between the Distributions of Dust and Combustion Aerosols in MERRA-2, FLEXPART and CALIPSO and Implications for Deposition Freezing Over Wintertime Siberia

Aerosol distributions have a potentially large influence on climate-relevant cloud properties but can be difficult to observe over the Arctic given pervasive cloudiness, long polar nights, data paucity over remote regions, and periodic diamond dust events that satellites can misclassify as aerosol. We compared Arctic 2008–2015 mineral dust and combustion aerosol distributions from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis products, and the FLEXible PARTicle (FLEXPART) dispersion model. Based on coincident, seasonal Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Arctic satellite meteorological data, diamond dust may occur up to 60 % of the time in winter, but it hardly ever occurs in summer. In its absence, MERRA-2 and FLEXPART each predict the vertical and horizontal distribution of large-scale patterns in combustion aerosols with relatively high confidence (Kendall tau rank correlation > 0.6), although a sizable amount of variability is still unaccounted for. They do the same for dust, except in conditions conducive to diamond dust formation where CALIPSO is likely misclassifying diamond dust as mineral dust and near the surface (< ∼ 2 km) where FLEXPART may be overpredicting local dust emissions. Comparisons to ground data suggest that MERRA-2 Arctic dust concentrations can be improved by the addition of local dust sources. All three products predicted that wintertime dust and combustion aerosols occur most frequently over the same Siberian regions where diamond dust is most common in the winter. This suggests that dust aerosol impacts on ice phase processes may be particularly high over Siberia, although further wintertime model validation with non-CALIPSO observations is needed. This assessment paves the way for applying the model-based aerosol simulations to a range of regional-scale Arctic aerosol–cloud interaction studies with greater confidence.

MERRA-2↗