Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Internal variability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A smeared crack modeling framework accommodating multi-directional fracture at finite strains

A generic smeared crack modeling framework predicated on the deformation gradient decomposition (DGD) approach is proposed for use in dynamic fracture problems at finite strains, accommodating failure along multiple mutually orthogonal fracture planes embedded within an independently defined bulk material model. Within this constitutive framework, the traction equilibrium conditions imposed at each failure surface are used to determine the associated crack displacements stored as internal state variables. In general, the enforcement of interfacial equilibrium entails the implicit solution of a non-linear system of equations within the constitutive update procedure. However, if inertial effects arising due to the relative motion of the fractured material are incorporated within the model, the traction equilibrium conditions are shown to give rise to corresponding dynamic equations of motion governing the time-evolution of the crack opening displacements. For dynamic problems, an explicit time-integration procedure is devised to efficiently update the material state, subject to a set of internal frictionless contact constraints to prevent material inversion. Finally, the efficacy of the proposed modeling framework is investigated through several benchmark dynamic fracture problems run within the explicit finite element code DYNA3D.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pervasive alterations to snow-dominated ecosystem functions under climate change

Climate change projections consistently demonstrate that warming temperatures and dwindling seasonal snowpack will elicit cascading effects on ecosystem function and water resource availability. Despite this consensus, little is known about potential changes in the variability of ecohydrological conditions, which is also required to inform climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Considering potential changes in ecohydrological variability is critical to evaluating the emergence of trends, assessing the likelihood of extreme events such as floods and droughts, and identifying when tipping points may be reached that fundamentally alter ecohydrological function. Using a single-model Large Ensemble with sophisticated terrestrial ecosystem representation, we characterize projected changes in the mean state and variability of ecohydrological processes in historically snow-dominated regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Widespread snowpack reductions, earlier snowmelt timing, longer growing seasons, drier soils, and increased fire risk are projected for this century under a high-emissions scenario. In addition to these changes in the mean state, increased variability in winter snowmelt will increase growing-season water deficits and increase the stochasticity of runoff. Thus, with warming, declining snowpack loses its dependable buffering capacity so that runoff quantity and timing more closely reflect the episodic characteristics of precipitation. This results in a declining predictability of annual runoff from maximum snow water equivalent, which has critical implications for ecosystem stress and water resource management. So our results suggest that there is a strong likelihood of pervasive alterations to ecohydrological function that may be expected with climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Improved Fracture Mechanics-Informed Multiscale Thermomechanical Damage Model for Ceramic Matrix Composites

This paper extends recent work done by the authors in modeling length scale-dependent damage behavior of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) to include effects of local anisotropy introduced by matrix cracking. This model captures scale-dependent damage initiation and propagation behavior of the brittle matrix by employing internal state variable (ISV) theory within a multiscale modeling framework to obtain damaged matrix stress/strain constitutive relationships at each length scale. The damage ISV captures the effects of matrix cracking and growth by using fracture mechanics and the self-consistent scheme to determine the reduced stiffness of the cracked matrix. Matrix cracks, which activate when stress intensity factors near manufacturing induced cavities exceed the fracture toughness of the material, are assumed to be transversely isotropic in the plane of the crack, and matrix anisotropy occurs when the damaged stiffness tensor is rotated from the crack plane to the global axes. The crack progression and temporal evolution of the damage ISV are governed by fracture mechanics and crack growth kinetics. The model effectively captures first matrix cracking, which is the first significant deviation from linear elasticity. The nonlinear predictive capabilities of the material model are demonstrated for monolithic silicon carbide (SiC) and a 2D woven five-harness satin (5HS) carbon fiber SiC matrix (C/SiC) CMC.

Skinner, Travis↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electromechanical memcapacitor model offering biologically plausible spiking.

In this article, we introduce a new nanoscale electromechanical device - a leaky memcapacitor - and show that it may be useful for the hardware implementation of spiking neurons. The leaky memcapacitor is a movableplate capacitor that becomes quite conductive when the plates come close to each other. The equivalent circuit of the leaky memcapacitor involves a memcapacitive and memristive system connected in parallel. In the leaky memcapacitor, resistance and capacitance depend on the same internal state variable, which is the displacement of the movable plate. We have performed a comprehensive analysis showing that several types of spiking observed in biological neurons can be implemented with the leaky memcapacitor. Significant attention is paid to the dynamic properties of the model. As in leaky memcapacitors the capacitive, leaking resistive, and reset functionalities are implemented naturally within the same device structure, their use will simplify the creation of spiking neural networks.

Zhang, Zixi↗
DOE OSTI2022

A thermodynamically consistent finite strain phase field approach to ductile fracture considering multi-axial stress states

Phase field models for ductile fracture have gained significant attention in the last two decades due to their ability in implicitly tracking the nucleation and propagation of cracks. However, most crack phase field formulations for elastoplastic solids focus only on the effects of plastic deformation, and do not consider the different multi-axial stress states that may arise in practical designs. In this work, a thermodynamically consistent phase field approach coupled with finite strain plasticity, considering multi-axial stress states is presented. In order to account for the coupling between plasticity and stress states, the Stress-Weighted Ductile Fracture Model (SWDFM) is utilized. The SWDFM represents a criterion for predicting ductile crack initiation under both monotonic and cyclic loadings based on histories of an internal plastic variable, stress triaxiality, and the Lode angle parameter. The excellent performance of the SWDFM for predicting ductile crack initiation motivates for its incorporation into a phase field approach for predicting both crack initiation and propagation through degradation of the fracture toughness. Moreover, based on the second law of thermodynamics, exact requirements are imposed on the rate at which the fracture toughness can evolve. Here, a novel function for degrading the plastic yield surface during the evolution of damage is introduced. This function, in line with experimental observations, leads to an accumulation of plastic deformation in damaged regions of a solid, and avoids numerical instabilities arising from concentrations of large plastic deformations in severely damaged regions. For validating the proposed model, results of computational simulations are compared to data from selected tests considering different multi-axial stress states. Comparisons of the numerical results with data from laboratory experiments demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed framework.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Instabilities and phase transitions in architected metamaterials: a gradient-enhanced continuum approach

Architected metamaterials such as foams and lattices exhibit a wide range of properties governed by microstructural instabilities and emerging phase transitions. Their macroscopic response–including energy dissipation during impact, large recoverable deformations, morphing between configurations, and auxetic behavior–remains difficult to capture with conventional continuum models, which often rely on discrete approaches that limit scalability. In this work, we propose a nonlocal continuum formulation that captures both stable and unstable responses of elastic architected metamaterials. The framework extends anisotropic hyperelasticity by introducing nonlocal variables and internal length scales reflective of microstructural features. Local polyconvex free-energy models are systematically augmented with two families of non-(poly)convex energies, enabling both metastable and bistable responses. Implementation in a finite element framework enables solution using a hybrid monolithic–staggered strategy. Simulations capture densification fronts, forward and reverse transitions, hysteresis loops, imperfection sensitivity, and globally coordinated auxetic modes. Overall, this framework provides a robust foundation for accelerated modeling of instability-driven phenomena in architected metamaterials, while enabling extensions to anisotropic, dissipative, and active systems as well as integration with data-driven and machine learning approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A constitutive model for glass–ceramic materials

Glass–ceramics have received recent attention for use in glass–ceramic to metal hermetic seals. Due to their heterogeneous microstructure, these materials exhibit a number of advantageous responses over conventional glass based seals. Key amongst them is the possibility of a controllable thermal strain response and apparent coefficient of thermal expansion which may be used to minimize thermally induced residual stresses for aforementioned seals. Furthermore, these behaviors result from an inorganic glass matrix and variety of crystalline ceramic phases including silica polymorph(s) that may undergo reversible solid-to-solid transformations with associated inelastic strain. Correspondingly, these materials exhibit complex thermomechanical responses associated with multiple inelastic mechanisms (viscoelasticity and phase transformation). While modeling these behaviors is essential for developing and analyzing the corresponding applications, no such model exists. Therefore, in this work a three-dimensional continuum constitutive model for glass–ceramic materials combining these various inelastic mechanisms is developed via an internal state variable approach. A corresponding fully implicit three dimensional numerical formulation is also proposed and implemented. The model is used to simulate existing experiments and validate the proposed formalism. As an example, the simple seal problem of a glass–ceramic seal inside a concentric metal shell is explored. Finally, the impact of the cooling rates, viscoelastic shift factors, and inelastic strain on final residual stress state are all investigated and the differing contributions highlighted.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Indicator Patterns of Forced Change Learned by an Artificial Neural Network

Abstract Many problems in climate science require the identification of signals obscured by both the “noise” of internal climate variability and differences across models. Following previous work, we train an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict the year of a given map of annual‐mean temperature (or precipitation) from forced climate model simulations. This prediction task requires the ANN to learn forced patterns of change amidst a background of climate noise and model differences. We then apply a neural network visualization technique (layerwise relevance propagation) to visualize the spatial patterns that lead the ANN to successfully predict the year. These spatial patterns thus serve as “reliable indicators” of the forced change. The architecture of the ANN is chosen such that these indicators vary in time, thus capturing the evolving nature of regional signals of change. Results are compared to those of more standard approaches like signal‐to‐noise ratios and multilinear regression in order to gain intuition about the reliable indicators identified by the ANN. We then apply an additional visualization tool (backward optimization) to highlight where disagreements in simulated and observed patterns of change are most important for the prediction of the year. This work demonstrates that ANNs and their visualization tools make a powerful pair for extracting climate patterns of forced change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Trends in Downwelling Longwave Radiance Over the Southern Great Plains

Downwelling longwave radiation is an important part of the surface energy budget. Spectral trends in the downwelling longwave radiance (DLR) provide insight into the radiative drivers of climate change. In this research, we process and analyze a 23-year DLR record measured by the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. Two AERIs were deployed at SGP with an overlapping observation period of about 10 years, which allows us to examine the consistency and accuracy of the measurements and to account for discrepancies between them due to errors associated with the instruments themselves. We then analyzed the all-sky radiance trends in DLR, which are associated with the surface warming trend at SGP during this same period and also the complex changes in meteorological conditions. For instance, the observed radiance in the CO2 absorption band follows closely the near-surface air temperature variations. The significant positive radiance trends in weak absorption channels, such as in the wings of the CO 2 band and in the weak absorption channels in the H 2 O vibration-rotational band, show earlier detectability of climate change. The magnitude of the radiance trend uncertainty in the DLR record mainly results from internal climate variability rather than from measurement error, which highlights the importance of continuing the DLR spectral measurements to unambiguously detect and attribute climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Potential Vorticity Dynamics Explain How Extratropical Oceans and the Arctic Modulate Wintertime Land–Temperature Variations

Temperature variations across the continental northern hemisphere at the interdecadal scale are thought to be remotely modulated by oceanic internal climate variability and the Arctic. Nevertheless, further elucidating the dynamics is essential for clarifying ongoing debates. We show that potential vorticity (PV) dynamics provide a concise explanation for these teleconnections. Our findings demonstrate that extratropical oceans and the Arctic can remotely modulate the wintertime continental temperature variations by stimulating PV anomalies, which are constrained by climatological PV gradients and jet streams. A causal explanation includes anomalous temperature and precipitation over oceans and the Arctic inducing local PV anomalies via diabatic heating. Subsequently, meridional and downstream advection distributes the anomalous PV to remote land regions where the climatological PV gradients are strong, that is, involving PV fronts, as well as jet streams; therefore, PV fronts and jet streams jointly indicate land regions that are largely and frequently impacted. However, land can also modulate other regions through the same mechanism when variations over land occur in advance. Clear causality depends on which factor is independent, while interactions among those regions may convolute the causality, thereby causing further debates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models

While the annual mean Arctic Amplification (AA) index varied between two and three during the 1970–2000 period, it reached values exceeding four during the first two decades of the 21st century. The AA did not change in a continuous fashion but rather in two sharp increases around 1986 and 1999. During those steps the mean global surface air temperature trend remained almost constant, while the Arctic trend increased. Although the “best” CMIP6 models reproduce the increasing trend of the AA in 1980s they do not capture the sharply increasing trend of the AA after 1999 including its rapid step-like increase. We propose that the first sharp AA increase around 1986 is due to external forcing, while the second step close to 1999 is due to internal climate variability, which models cannot reproduce in the observed time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Anthropogenic Aerosols Contribute to the Recent Decline in Precipitation Over the U.S. Southwest

Abstract The winter‐spring precipitation over the Southwestern United States (SWUS) decreased since 1980. It is frequently attributed to Pacific internal decadal variability, but recent studies found anthropogenic aerosols (AA) can also induce a transition to a negative Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) phase. We revisit the attribution of SWUS drying by quantifying the contributions of anthropogenically forced decadal Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Applying a low‐frequency component analysis to observations, Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) all‐forcings and single‐forcing large ensembles, we find up to 42% of the observed precipitation trend to be related to the AA‐induced negative PDV‐like pattern, which is driven by the emission shift from the Western to the Eastern Hemisphere. In CESM2, other radiative forcings counteract the influence of AA, but it remains unclear whether the model correctly simulates this balance. This implies that the near‐future trajectories of these forcings, in particular Asian aerosols, are important for projections of SWUS precipitation.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Influence of Land‐Surface Conditions on the 2020–2021 Western US Drought

Abstract In summer 2021, 90% of the western United States (WUS) experienced drought, with over half of the region facing extreme or exceptional conditions, leading to water scarcity, crop loss, ecological degradation, and significant socio‐economic consequences. Beyond the established influence of oceanic forcing and internal atmospheric variability, this study highlights the importance of land‐surface conditions in the development of the 2020–2021 WUS drought, using observational data analysis and novel numerical simulations. Our results demonstrate that the soil moisture state preceding a meteorological drought, due to its intrinsic memory, is a critical factor in the development of soil droughts. Specifically, wet soil conditions can delay the transition from meteorological to soil droughts by several months or even nullify the effects of La Niña‐driven meteorological droughts, while drier conditions can exacerbate these impacts, leading to more severe soil droughts. For the same reason, soil droughts can persist well beyond the end of meteorological droughts. Our numerical experiments suggest a relatively weak soil moisture‐precipitation coupling during this drought period, corroborating the primary contributions of the ocean and atmosphere to this meteorological drought. Additionally, drought‐induced vegetation losses can mitigate soil droughts by reducing evapotranspiration and slowing the depletion of soil moisture. This study highlights the importance of soil moisture and vegetation conditions in seasonal‐to‐interannual drought predictions. Findings from this study have implications for regions like the WUS, which are experiencing anthropogenically‐driven soil aridification and vegetation greening, suggesting that future soil droughts in these areas may develop more rapidly, become more severe, and persist longer.

Jiang, Yelin [Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Col↗
DOE OSTI2022

Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot–dry events

Compound hot–dry events—co-occurring hot and dry extremes—frequently cause damages to human and natural systems, often exceeding separate impacts from heatwaves and droughts. Strong increases in the occurrence of these events are projected with warming, but associated uncertainties remain large and poorly understood. Here, using climate model large ensembles, we show that mean precipitation trends exclusively modulate the future occurrence of compound hot–dry events over land. This occurs because local warming will be large enough that future droughts will always coincide with at least moderately hot extremes, even in a 2°C warmer world. By contrast, precipitation trends are often weak and equivocal in sign, depending on the model, region and internal climate variability. Therefore, constraining regional precipitation trends will also constrain future compound hot–dry events. These results help to assess future frequencies of other compound extremes characterized by strongly different trends in the drivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Precipitation regime changes in High Mountain Asia driven by cleaner air

High Mountain Asia (HMA) has experienced a spatial imbalance in water resources in recent decades, partly due to a dipolar pattern of precipitation changes known as South Drying-North Wetting. These changes can be influenced by both human activities and internal climate variability. While climate projections indicate a future widespread wetting trend over HMA, the timing and mechanism of the transition from a dipolar to a monopolar pattern remain unknown. Here, we demonstrate that the observed dipolar precipitation change in HMA during summer is primarily driven by westerly- and monsoon-associated precipitation patterns. The weakening of the Asian westerly jet, caused by uneven emission of anthropogenic aerosols, favors the dipolar precipitation trend during 1951-2020. Additionally, the phase transition of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation induces an out-of-phase precipitation change between the core region of the South Asian monsoon and southeastern HMA. Under medium or high emission scenarios, corresponding to a global warming of 0.6-1.1 °C compared to the present, the dipolar pattern is projected to shift into a monopolar wetting trend in the 2040s. This shift of precipitation patterns is mainly attributed to the intensified jet stream resulting from reduced emissions of anthropogenic aerosols. In conclusion, these findings underscore the importance of considering the impact of aerosol emission reduction in future social planning by policymakers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Historical sensible-heat-flux variations key to predicting future hydrologic sensitivity

Under anthropogenic climate change (CC), the global hydrological cycle intensifies at a rate known as hydrologic sensitivity (HS). Global climate models (GCMs) exhibit substantial uncertainty in HS. Past work suggests that another form of HS, derived from internal climate variability (IV), is useful for constraining this uncertainty. However, these two forms of HS are weakly related. Here we show that decomposing HS under both CC and IV, based on the global energy budget, provides insight into the likely range of future HS. We find that sensible heat exchange between the atmosphere and ocean is not accounted for in the atmospheric energy budget under IV, masking the connection between HS under IV and CC. Removing this term, a closer relationship emerges. We use observations in conjunction with this relationship to suggest an upward shift in the likely range of future HS (66% confidence interval: 2.00–2.36 W m -2 K -1

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Changing windstorm characteristics over the US Northeast in a single model large ensemble

Abstract Extreme windstorms pose a significant hazard to infrastructure and public safety, particularly in the highly populated US Northeast (NE). However, the influence climate change and changing land use will have on these events remains unclear. A large ensemble generated using the Max-Planck Institute (MPI) Earth system model is used to generate projections of NE windstorms under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and to attribute changes to projected land use land cover (LULC) change, externally forced changes and internal climate variability. To reduce the influence of coarse grid cell resolution and uncertainties in surface roughness lengths, windstorms are identified using simultaneous widespread exceedance of local 99th percentile 10 m wind speeds (U 99 ). Projected declines in forest cover in the NE and the resulting reductions in surface roughness length under SSP3-7.0 lead to projections of large increases in U 99 and derived windstorm intensity and scale. However, these projected changes in regional LULC under SSP3-7.0 are unprecedented in a historical context and may not be realistic. After corrections are applied to remove the influence of LULC on wind speeds, regionally averaged U 99 exhibit declines for most of the single model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE) members which are broadly proportional to the radiative forcing and global air temperature increase in the SSPs, with a median value of −0.15 ms −1 °C −1 . While weak cyclones are projected to decline in frequency in the NE, intense cyclones and the resulting windstorms and indices of socioeconomic loss do not. Where present, significant trends in these loss indices are positive, and some MPI SMILE members generate future windstorms that are unprecedented in the historical period.

Coburn, Jacob (ORCID:0000000309538117)↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Efficient Electrochemical Tanks-in-Series Model for Lithium Sulfur Batteries

This article applies and efficiently implements the Tanks-in-Series methodology ( J. Electrochem. Soc. , 167 , 013534 (2020)) to generate a computationally efficient electrochemical model for Lithium-Sulfur batteries. The original Tank model approach for Lithium-ion batteries is modified to account for porosity changes with time. In addition, an exponential scaling method is introduced that enables efficient simulation of the model equations to address the wide range of time constants present for different reactions in the Lithium-Sulfur system. The Tank Model achieves acceptable voltage error even for transport-limited discharged conditions. Predictions of internal electrochemical variables are examined, and electrochemical implications of the approximations discussed. This suggests significant potential for real-time applications such as optimal charging, cell-balancing, and estimation, and represents a step forward in efforts to incorporate detailed electrochemical models in advanced Battery Management Systems for Lithium-Sulfur batteries.

Parke, Caitlin D. (ORCID:0000000177324044)↗