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At least 163 records · Page 9

Habitable Climate Scenarios for Proxima Centauri B with a Dynamic Ocean

The nearby exoplanet Proxima Centauri b will be a prime future target for characterization, despite questions about its retention of water. Climate models with static oceans suggest that Proxima b could harbor a small dayside surface ocean despite its weak instellation. We present the first climate simulations of Proxima b with a dynamic ocean. We find that an ocean-covered Proxima b could have a much broader area of surface liquid water but at much colder temperatures than previously suggested, due to ocean heat transport and/or depression of the freezing point by salinity. Elevated greenhouse gas concentrations do not necessarily produce more open ocean because of dynamic regime transitions between a state with an equatorial Rossby-Kelvin wave pattern and a state with a day-night circulation. For an evolutionary path leading to a highly saline ocean, Proxima b could be an inhabited, mostly open ocean planet with halophilic life. A fresh water ocean produces a smaller liquid region than does an Earth salinity ocean. An ocean planet in 3:2 spin-orbit resonance has a permanent tropical waterbelt for moderate eccentricity. A larger vs. smaller area of surface liquid water for similar equilibrium temperature may be distinguishable using the amplitude of the thermal phase curve. Simulations of Proxima Centauri b may be a model for the habitability of weakly irradiated planets orbiting slightly cooler or warmer stars, e.g., in the TRAPPIST-1, LHS 1140, GJ 273, and GJ 3293 systems.

Aquaplanet↗

Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Observations on ENSO Predictions from the GEOS GMAO S2S Forecast System

We assess the impact of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) observations on dynamical ENSO forecasts. Assimilation of SSS improves the mixed layer depth (MLD) and modulates the Kelvin waves associated with ENSO. In column 2, the initialization differences between experiments that assimilate SSS minus those withholding SSS assimilation are presented. Column 3 shows examples of forecasts generated for the different phases of ENSO. From March to June 2015, the availability of two overlapping satellite SSS instruments, Aquarius and SMAP, allows a unique opportunity to compare and contrast coupled forecasts generated with the benefit of these two satellite SSS observation types. The far right column compares assimilation of Aquarius, SMAP and combined Aquaries and SMAP on forecasts for the 2015 El Nino.

ENSO↗

Observing System Experiments for Evaluating the Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity on Seasonal Predictions from the GMAO S2S System

We assess the impact of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) observations on dynamical ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) forecasts. Assimilation of SSS improves the mixed layer depth (MLD) and modulates the Kelvin waves associated with ENSO. In column 2, the initialization differences between experiments that assimilate SSS minus those withholding SSS assimilation are presented. Column 3 shows examples of forecasts generated for the different phases of ENSO assimilating the different satellite SSS. In general, for all phases of ENSO, SSS assimilation improves forecasts. The far right column compares ensemble means for assimilation of individual and combined SMOS, Aquarius, SMAP (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity, NASA Aquarius, Soil Moisture Active Passive) SSS forecasts. Finally, the latest forecasts are presented comparing assimilation versus no- assimilation of satellite SSS for single forecasts over the last year.

Hackert, E.↗

Impact of Aquarius and SMAP Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Observations on Coupled El Niño/Southern Oscillation Forecasts

This study demonstrates the positive impact of including gridded Aquarius and SMAP sea surface salinity (SSS) into initialization of coupled forecasts for the tropical Indo-Pacific. An experiment that assimilates conventional ocean observations serves as the control. In a separate experiment, Aquarius and SMAP satellite SSS are additionally assimilated into the control initialization. Analysis of the initialization differences with the control indicates that SSS assimilation causes a freshening and shallowing of the mixed layer depth (MLD) near the equator and enhanced Kelvin wave amplitude. For each month from September 2011 to September 2018, 12 month coupled ENSO forecasts are initialized from both the control and satellite SSS assimilation experiments. The experiment assimilating Aquarius and SMAP SSS significantly outperforms the control relative to observed NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies. This work highlights the importance of inclusion of satellite SSS for improving the initialization ENSO coupled forecasts.

Hackert, Eric C.↗

Assessment of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Products Using a Coupled ENSO Prediction Model

Much work has gone into revising and updating algorithms for converting satellite-measured radiances to useful ocean variables like sea surface salinity (e.g. SMOS - Boutin et al., 2017, SMAP - Fore et al., 2016 and Aquarius - Meissner et al., 2018). As part of our Ocean Salinity Science Team work, we utilize an intermediate-complexity air/sea coupled model as a transfer function to test if more mature satellite SSS model algorithms actually improve ENSO forecast skill. For initialization of the coupled forecast, we demonstrate that the positive impact of SSS assimilation is brought about by surface freshening near the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool and density changes that lead to shallower mixed layer between 10S-5N. In addition, salting near the ITCZ leads to a deepening of the mixed layer and thermocline near 8N. These patterns together provide the background state to amplify equatorial Kelvin waves and improve ENSO hindcasts (Hackert et al., 2019). Here we extend this work to compare the impact of various pairs of original and improved satellite SSS algorithms. For instance we compare SMAP V4.1 with the latest, SMAP V4.2, to see what impact algorithm improvements may have on ENSO forecasts. SSS observations are tested on seasonal to interannual variability of tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean dynamics as well as on dynamical ENSO forecasts by initializing twelve-month forecasts for each month of available data. All experiments assimilate satellite sea level (SL), sea surface temperature (SST), and in situ subsurface temperature and salinity observations (Tz, Sz). Additionally various satellite, blended, and in-situ SSS products are assimilated. We find that including satellite SSS significantly improves Niño3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly validation, more mature SSS model algorithms are generally improving ENSO forecasts over time, and more satellite SSS data coverage helps to extend useful forecasts.

Ocean↗

Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Observations on ENSO Predictions from the NASA/GMAO Seasonal Forecast System

We assess the impact of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) observations on dynamical ENSO forecasts. Assimilation of SSS improves the mixed layer depth (MLD) and modulates the Kelvin waves associated with ENSO. In column 2, the initialization differences between experiments that assimilate SSS minus those withholding SSS assimilation are presented. Column 3 shows examples of forecasts generated for the different phases of ENSO assimilating the different satellite SSS. In general, for all phases of ENSO, SSS assimilation improves forecasts. The far right column compares ensemble means for assimilation of individual and combined SMOS, Aquarius, and SMAP SSS forecasts. Finally, the latest forecasts are presented comparing assimilation versus no- assimilation of satellite SSS for single forecasts over the last year.

Hackert, E.↗

On wave-CISK and the evaporation-wind feedback for the Madden-Julian oscillation

The combined effects of Kelvin wave-CISK and the evaporation-wind (E-W) feedback are proposed as a possible mechanism for the Madden-Julian oscillation. A very simple single vertical mode model has been employed to examine the effects of both these processes on moist Kelvin waves. The effects of wave-induced moisture convergence is parameterized by reducing the moist static stability, and CISK occurs when the moist static stability becomes negative. The E-W feedback in the presence of mean easterlies leads to unstable Kelvin modes. The presence of mean westerlies leads to decaying Kelvin modes. When CISK and the E-W feedback work in concert, an unstable Kelvin mode develops that has phase speeds of propagation between 5 m/s and 10 m/s for a large range of parameter values. On the other hand, the E-W feedback mechanism alone, in the case when CISK is not operating, produces the phase speeds of the observed Madden-Julian oscillation for only a very limited range of parameter values.

Kirtman, B.↗

ULF waves in the magnetosphere

Research efforts in the area of magnetospheric ULF waves in the 1987-1990 period are reviewed. Attention is given to externally excited hydromagnetic waves including field line resonance, the global cavity mode, bow-shock-associated upstream waves, and Kelvin-Helmholtz waves. Consideration is given to internally excited Pc 4-5 pulsations and the role of these pulsations in the diffusion of ring-current ions based on the observed properties of the pulsations.

Takahashi, Kazue↗

A Revised Method of Presenting Wavenumber-Frequency Power Spectrum Diagrams That Reveals the Asymmetric Nature of Tropical Large-scale Waves

The popular method of presenting wavenumber-frequency power spectrum diagrams for studying tropical large-scale waves in the literature is shown to give an incomplete presentation of these waves. The so-called "convectively-coupled Kelvin (mixed Rossby-gravity) waves" are presented as existing only in the symmetric (antisymmetric) component of the diagrams. This is obviously not consistent with the published composite/regression studies of "convectively-coupled Kelvin waves," which illustrate the asymmetric nature of these waves. The cause of this inconsistency is revealed in this note and a revised method of presenting the power spectrum diagrams is proposed. When this revised method is used, "convectively-coupled Kelvin waves" do show anti-symmetric components, and "convectively-coupled mixed Rossby-gravity waves (also known as Yanai waves)" do show a hint of symmetric components. These results bolster a published proposal that these waves be called "chimeric Kelvin waves," "chimeric mixed Rossby-gravity waves," etc. This revised method of presenting power spectrum diagrams offers a more rigorous means of comparing the General Circulation Models (GCM) output with observations by calling attention to the capability of GCMs in correctly simulating the asymmetric characteristics of the equatorial waves.

Chao, Winston C.↗

Topological Signature of Stratospheric Poincaré-Gravity Waves

The rotation of Earth breaks time-reversal and reflection symmetries in an opposite sense north and south of the equator, leading to a topological origin for certain atmospheric and oceanic equatorial waves. Away from the equator, the rotating shallow-water and stably stratified primitive equations exhibit Poincaré inertia–gravity waves that have nontrivial topology as evidenced by their strict superinertial time scale and a phase singularity in frequency–wavevector space. This nontrivial topology then predicts, via the principle of bulk-interface correspondence, the existence of two equatorial waves along the equatorial interface, the Kelvin and Yanai waves. To directly test the nontrivial topology of Poincaré-gravity waves in observations, we examine ERA5 data and study cross correlations between the wind velocity and geopotential height of the midlatitude stratosphere at the 50 hPa height. We find the predicted vortex and antivortex in the relative phase of the geopotential height and velocity at the high frequencies of the waves. By contrast, lower-frequency planetary waves are found to have trivial topology also as expected from theory. These results demonstrate a new way to understand stratospheric waves and provide a new qualitative tool to investigate waves in other components of the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Kelvin-Helmholtz Vortices as an Interplay of Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Coupling

The solar wind-magnetosphere interaction drives diverse physical processes on the flanks of Earth’s magnetopause, and in turn these processes couple to the ionosphere. We investigate simultaneous multipoint in-situ spacecraft and ground-based measurements to determine the role of Kelvin-Helmholtz waves at the Earth’s magnetopause and the low-latitude boundary layer in the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling process. Nonlinear Kelvin-Helmholtz waves develop into flow vortices that twist and/or shear flux tube magnetic fields, thereby generating localized field-aligned currents. Kelvin-Helmholtz vortices on the dusk (dawn) flanks of the magnetosphere generate clockwise (counter-clockwise) rotations and upward (downward) field-aligned currents inside the flux tubes, consistent with the region-1 field-aligned current. We present in-situ MMS and Cluster spacecraft observations of Kelvin-Helmholtz vortices at the magnetopause that map to the poleward edge of the auroral regions. The FAST spacecraft and the ground-based magnetometers from which spherical elementary currents (acting as a proxy for vertical currents) can be calculated observe corresponding field-aligned current signatures. This study demonstrates the role played by the Kelvin-Helmholtz waves in linking magnetopause boundary fluctuations to ionospheric phenomena.

K-J Hwang↗

Evidence of Boundary Reflection of Kelvin and First-Mode Rossby Waves from Topex/Poseidon Sea Level Data

The TOPEX/POSEIDON sea level data lead to new opportunities to investigate some theoretical mechanisms suggested to be involved in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon in the tropical Pacific ocean. In particular, we are interested in studying the western boundary reflection, a process crucial for the delayed action oscillator theory, by using the TOPEX/POSEIDON data from November 1992 to May 1995. We first projected the sea level data onto Kelvin and first-mode Ross waves. Then we estimated the contribution of wind forcing to these waves by using a single baroclinic mode simple wave model forced by the ERS-1 wind data. Wave propagation was clearly observed with amplitudes well explained by the wind forcing in the ocean interior. Evidence of wave reflection was detected at both the western and eastern boundaries of the tropical Pacific ocean. At the eastern boundary, Kelvin waves were seen to reflect as first-mode Rossby waves during the entire period. The reflection efficiency (in terms of wave amplitude) of the South American coasts was estimated to be 80% of that of an infinite meridional wall. At the western boundary, reflection was observed in April-August 1993, in January-June 1994, and, later, in December 1994 to February 1995. Although the general roles of these reflection events in the variability observed in the equatorial Pacific ocean are not clear, the data suggest that the reflections in January-June 1994 have played a role in the onset of the warm conditions observed in late 1994 to early 1995. Indeed, during the January-June 1994 period, as strong downwelling first-mode Rossby waves reflected into downwelling Kelvin waves, easterly wind and cold sea surface temperature anomalies located near the date line weakened and eventually reversed in June-July 1994. The presence of the warm anomalies near the date line then favored convection and westerly wind anomalies that triggered strong downwelling Kelvin waves propagating throughout the basin simultaneously with the beginning of the 1994-1995 warm conditions.

Boulanger, Jean-Philippe↗

Linear and Nonlinear Kelvin–Helmholtz Instability and Magnetohydrodynamic Wave Emission in Sheared Astrophysical Plasma Flows

The evolution of the Kelvin–Helmholtz instability (KHI) and magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) wave emission is investigated at shear-flow boundaries of magnetized plasmas. While MHD wave emission has been suggested to be only possible during the nonlinear stages, we find that there is also significant wave emission during the KHI's linear stages. These emitted MHD waves may have stronger impacts than KHI surface waves since they can act to transport energy away from the local region of the shear flow. The removal of energy from the shear-flow region, instead of just the local redistribution considered in previous studies, and its propagation away from the interface could have major implications for the evolution of astrophysical objects characterized by fast plasma flow shears.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Record-Breaking Precipitation in Indonesia's Capital of Jakarta in Early January 2020 Linked to the Northerly Surge, Equatorial Waves, and MJO

A rare record-breaking extreme rainfall event, the highest amount recorded since 1866, hit Indonesia’s capital, Jakarta, in early January 2020. The torrential rainfall was mainly caused by an active cross-equatorial northerly surge (CENS) that occurred concurrently with equatorial waves and Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). A strong and persistent low-level northerly wind and moisture transport induced by CENS created favorable atmospheric conditions for the formation of deep convection and heavy rainfall over Jakarta. The concurrent occurrences of convectively active phases of equatorial waves (mainly Kelvin, TD-type, and eastward propagating inertia-gravity waves) and MJO during the event further supported the development of heavy rainfall by increasing low-level moisture flux convergence, whereas equatorial Rossby waves contributed indirectly to the increased moisture transport by amplifying cross-equatorial meridional flows toward Jakarta. Together, these large-scale dynamical forcing factors provided a conducive convective environment for the development of mesoscale convective systems and, hence, extreme rainfall over the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of TAO Observation System on ENSO Predictions from the GMAO S2S Forecast System

Since the early 1990’s, the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) mooring array has been instrumental for observing Kelvin and Rossby wave propagation which is key for El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. However, recent funding and programmatical issues have highlighted the need to rigorously assess the impact of the TAO observing system on ENSO predictions. Therefore, we evaluate the TAO using data assimilation observation denial experiments (also known as Observing System Evaluation or OSE experiments). This presentation will evaluate the TAO observing impact on both reanalyses and prediction of the big 2015 El Nino. We have completed reanalyses for July 2014-Dec 2015 for both the CONTROL experiment (that assimilates all available data) and the NOTAO experiment (that is identical to the CONTROL but withholds all TAO observations) using the best available NASA GEOS-S2S V3 seasonal prediction system. Validation of these reanalyses shows that TAO assimilation generally improves comparisons of temperature and salinity versus gridded in situ observations. Temperature is universally improved above the thermocline near the equator, but the biggest improvement is found in the eastern Pacific, just below the thermocline, where the variation of the thermocline defines ENSO events. In addition, a surprising result is that even with relatively few observations, salinity is improved throughout the equatorial region except near 120oW near the surface. ENSO forecasts were performed that were initialized from these CONTROL and NOTAO reanalyses. For the 9-month forecasts which were initialized in January, July, and October 2015, the NINO3.4 SST shows that the CONTROL forecasts are warmer and closer to observations than the NOTAO forecasts. We will show that upwelling and shoaling of the mixed layer amplifies the ENSO signal due to TAO assimilation. Prior to (after) April 2015, this upwelling is caused by relatively stronger Rossby (Kelvin) waves in the CONTROL than in the NOTAO experiments.

E. Hackert↗

Geosat-derived sea level and surface current anomalies in the equatorial Pacific during the 1986-1989 El Nino and La Nina

Equatorial wave dynamics are essential in most oceanic models for reproducing aspects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Observational evidence of first baroclinic equatorial Kelvin and first symmetric meridional Rossby waves is found in Geosat-derived sea level anomalies (SLA) and surface zonal current anomalies (ZCA) in the equatorial Pacific ocean during the 1986-1987 El Nino and the ensuing 1988-1989 La Nina. This was made possible after extensive quality control and specific processing of the recently improved Geosat geophysical data records pertaining to the 17-day Exact Repeat Mission. In particular, the processing was made so that the Geosat-derived ZCA best fit near-surface zonal currents from three equatorial moorings at 165 deg E, 140 deg W, and 110 deg W. The Geosat-derived SLA and ZCA are decomposed into first baroclinic equatorial Kelvin and gravest Rossby modes. The emphasis is then put on the chronology of the ZCA at the equator where the currents are the most energetic and where Kelvin and first symmetric Rossby waves explain most of the variance in ZCA, in similar proportion. The 1986-1987 El Nino is mostly characterized by a strong downwelling Kelvin wave in December 1986, a series of downwelling Kelvin waves in March-October 1987, and a strong upwelling Rossby wave in March-September 1987. These waves are consistent with wind forcing, and all give rise to notable eastward ZCA for almost an entire year. During El Nino-La Nina transition period there is the occurrence of two downwelling Rossby waves originating from the eastern Pacific at times of favorable wind forcing. These Rossby waves switch the basin-wide ZCA from eastward to westward, terminating the warm event. Then, the 1988-1989 La Nina shows the generation of a series of upwelling Kelvin waves which are clearly identified in March/April and September/October 1988. These upwelling Kelvin waves are apparently related to the enhencement of the trade wind in the western half of the basin. These waves maintain the basin-wide westward ZCA for more than a year, although the ZCA is slightly reduced ba front of upwelling Rossby waves in phase with the normal seasonal cycle. The Kelvin wave forcing and sign of kelvin wave contribution versus Rossby wave contribution to ZCA in the western Pacific are discussed, and we conclude that neither pleads in favor of the delayed action oscillator mechanism.

Delcroix, Thierry↗