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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Airborne Measurements of Scale‐Dependent Latent Heat Flux Impacted by Water Vapor and Vertical Velocity Over Heterogeneous Land Surfaces During the CHEESEHEAD19 Campaign

Abstract The water vapor transport associated with latent heat flux (LE) in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is critical for the atmospheric hydrological cycle, radiation balance, and cloud formation. The spatiotemporal variability of LE and water vapor mixing ratio ( r v ) are poorly understood due to the scale‐dependent and nonlinear atmospheric transport responses to land surface heterogeneity. Here, airborne in situ measurements with the wavelet technique are utilized to investigate scale‐dependent relationships among LE, vertical velocity ( w ) variance (), and r v variance () over a heterogeneous surface during the Chequamegon Heterogeneous Ecosystem Energy‐balance Study Enabled by a High‐density Extensive Array of Detectors 2019 (CHEESEHEAD19) field campaign. Our findings reveal distinct scale distributions of LE, , and at 100 m height, with a majority scale range of 120 m–4 km in LE, 32 m–2 km in , and 200 m–8 km in . The scales are classified into three scale ranges, the turbulent scale (8–200 m), large‐eddy scale (200 m–2 km), and mesoscale (2–8 km) to evaluate scale‐resolved LE contributed by and . The large‐eddy scale in PBL contributes over 70% of the monthly mean total LE with equal parts (50%) of contributions from and . The monthly temporal variations mainly come from the first two major contributing classified scales in LE, , and . These results confirm the dominant role of the large‐eddy scale in the PBL in the vertical moisture transport from the surface to the PBL, while the mesoscale is shown to contribute an additional ∼20%. This analysis complements published scale‐dependent LE variations, which lack detailed scale‐dependent vertical velocity and moisture information.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Combining variational autoencoders and physical bias for improved microscopy data analysis *

Electron and scanning probe microscopy produce vast amounts of data in the form of images or hyperspectral data, such as electron energy loss spectroscopy or 4D scanning transmission electron microscope, that contain information on a wide range of structural, physical, and chemical properties of materials. To extract valuable insights from these data, it is crucial to identify physically separate regions in the data, such as phases, ferroic variants, and boundaries between them. In order to derive an easily interpretable feature analysis, combining with well-defined boundaries in a principled and unsupervised manner, here we present a physics augmented machine learning method which combines the capability of variational autoencoders to disentangle factors of variability within the data and the physics driven loss function that seeks to minimize the total length of the discontinuities in images corresponding to latent representations. Our method is applied to various materials, including NiO-LSMO, BiFeO 3 , and graphene. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in extracting meaningful information from large volumes of imaging data. The customized codes of the required functions and classes to develop phyVAE is available at https://github.com/arpanbiswas52/phy-VAE.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulation of ENSO Teleconnections to Precipitation Extremes over the United States in the High-Resolution Version of E3SM

Abstract We evaluate the simulated teleconnection of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to winter season precipitation extremes over the United States in a long (98 years) 1950 control high-resolution version (HR; 25-km nominal atmosphere model horizontal resolution) of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1). The model bias and spatial pattern of ENSO teleconnections to mean and extreme precipitation in HR overall are similar to the low-resolution model’s (LR; 110 km) historical simulation (four-member ensemble, 1925–59). However, over the southeastern United States (SE-U.S.), HR produces stronger El Niño–associated extremes, reducing LR’s model bias. Both LR and HR produce weaker than observed increase in storm track activity during El Niño events there, but HR improves the ENSO-associated variability of moisture transport over SE-U.S. During El Niño, stronger vertical velocities in HR produce stronger large-scale precipitation, causing larger latent heating of the troposphere that pulls in more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the SE-U.S. This positive feedback also contributes to the stronger mean and extreme precipitation response in HR. Over the Pacific Northwest, LR’s bias of stronger than observed La Niña associated extremes is amplified in HR. Both models simulate stronger than observed moisture transport from the Pacific Ocean into the region during La Niña years. The amplified HR bias there is due to stronger orographically driven vertical updrafts that create stronger large-scale precipitation, despite weaker La Niña–induced storm track activity. Significance Statement New high-resolution Earth system models (ESMs) solve mathematical equations of fluid flow at much smaller spatial scales than prevalent ESMs, and thus are prohibitively expensive to compute. However, they can be useful for simulating accurate details of regional climate extremes that are driven by naturally occurring climate oscillations like El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here, we evaluate the simulation of ENSO-driven precipitation extremes over the United States in the high-resolution version of the U.S. Department of Energy’s new Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1. We find that the high-resolution model improves upon its low-resolution counterpart over the southeastern United States by producing a better transport of moisture into the region from the Gulf of Mexico during El Niño. Over the U.S. Pacific Northwest, the high-resolution model simulates the atmospheric flow in more detail over the complex mountainous terrain. However, it also brings in more moisture from the Pacific Ocean just like the low-resolution model. This causes it to produce precipitation extremes during La Niña years there that are stronger than that observed in the real world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

ARM Data-Oriented Metrics and Diagnostics Package for Climate Model Evaluation

A Python-based metrics and diagnostics package is currently being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Infrastructure Team at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to facilitate the use of long-term, high-frequency measurements from the ARM Facility in evaluating the regional climate simulation of clouds, radiation, and precipitation. This metrics and diagnostics package computes climatological means of targeted climate model simulation and generates tables and plots for comparing the model simulation with ARM observational data. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model data sets are also included in the package to enable model intercomparison as demonstrated in Zhang et al. (2017). The mean of the CMIP model can serve as a reference for individual models. Basic performance metrics are computed to measure the accuracy of mean state and variability of climate models. The evaluated physical quantities include cloud fraction, temperature, relative humidity, cloud liquid water path, total column water vapor, precipitation, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and radiative fluxes, with plan to extend to more fields, such as aerosol and microphysics properties. Process-oriented diagnostics focusing on individual cloud- and precipitation-related phenomena are also being developed for the evaluation and development of specific model physical parameterizations. The version 1.0 package is designed based on data collected at ARM’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) Research Facility, with the plan to extend to other ARM sites. The metrics and diagnostics package is currently built upon standard Python libraries and additional Python packages developed by DOE (such as CDMS and CDAT). The ARM metrics and diagnostic package is available publicly with the hope that it can serve as an easy entry point for climate modelers to compare their models with ARM data. In this report, we first present the input data, which constitutes the core content of the metrics and diagnostics package in section 2, and a user's guide documenting the workflow/structure of the version 1.0 codes, and including step-by-step instruction for running the package in section 3.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

ARM data-oriented metrics and diagnostics package for climate model evaluation (ARM-DIAGS-V3) version 3

A Python-based metrics and diagnostics package is currently being developed by the ARM Infrastructure Team at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to facilitate the use of long-term high frequency measurements from the ARM program in evaluating the regional climate simulation of clouds, radiation, precipitation, and aerosols. This metrics and diagnostics package computes climatological means of targeted climate model simulation and generates tables and plots for comparing the model simulation with ARM observational data. The CMIP model data sets are also included in the package to enable model inter-comparison as demonstrated in Zhang et al. (2018) and Zhang et al. (2020). The mean of the CMIP model can be served as a reference for individual models. Basic performance metrics are computed to measure the accuracy of mean state and variability of climate models. The evaluated physical quantities include cloud fraction, temperature, relative humidity, cloud liquid water path, total column water vapor, precipitation, sensible and latent heat fluxes, aerosol optical depth, and radiative fluxes, with plan to extend to more fields, such as the evaluation of model simulated aerosol physicochemical properties and cloud microphysics properties. Process-oriented diagnostics focusing on aerosol, cloud, and precipitation-related phenomena are also being developed for the evaluation and development of specific model physical parameterizations. In addition to the Southern Great Plains (SGP), North Slope of Alaska (NSA) and Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) atmospheric observatories in the ARMDIAGS version 2.0, the version 3.0 package have extended to the data collected at the ARM Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) atmospheric observatory and the Observation and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAMAZON) field campaign. The metrics and diagnostics package are currently built upon standard Python libraries and additional Python packages developed by DOE (CDAT). The ARM metrics and diagnostic package is available publicly with the hope that it can serve as an easy entry point for climate modelers to compare their models with ARM data. In this report, we first provide an overview of major metrics in section 2. The input data, which constitutes the core content of the metrics and diagnostics package, is summarized in section 3. A user's guide documenting the workflow/structure of the version 3.0 codes and including step-by-step instruction for running the package is described in section 4.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of a multi-layer canopy model for E3SM Land Model with support for heterogeneous computing

The vertical structure of vegetation canopies creates micro-climates. However, the land components of most Earth System Models, including the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), typically neglect vertical canopy structure by using a single layer big-leaf representation to simulate water, CO 2 , and energy exchanges between the land and the atmosphere. In this study, we developed a Multi-Layer Canopy Model for the E3SM Land Model to resolve the micro-climate created by vegetation canopies. The model developed in this study re-implements the CLM-ml_v1 to support heterogeneous computing architectures consisting of CPUs and GPUs and includes three additional optimization-based stomatal conductance models. The use of Portable, Extensible Toolkit for Scientific Computation provides a speedup of 25–50 times on a GPU relative to a CPU. The numerical implementation of the model was verified against CLM-ml_v1 for a month-long simulation using data from the Ameriflux US-University of Michigan Biological Station site. Model structural uncertainty was explored by performing control simulations for five stomatal conductance models that exclude and include the control of plant hydrodynamics (PHD) on photosynthesis. The bias in simulated sensible and latent heat fluxes was lower when PHD was accounted for in the model. Additionally, six idealized simulations were performed to study the impact of three environmental variables (i.e. air temperature, atmospheric CO 2 , and soil moisture) on canopy processes (i.e. net CO 2 assimilation, leaf temperature, and leaf water potential). Increasing air temperature reduced net CO 2 assimilation and increased air temperature. Net CO 2 assimilation increased at higher atmospheric CO 2 , while decreasing soil moisture resulted in lower leaf water potential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

MJO in Different Orbital Regimes: Role of the Mean State in the MJO’s Amplitude during Boreal Winter

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) exhibits pronounced seasonality, with one of the key unanswered questions being the following: what controls the maximum in MJO precipitation variance in the Southern Hemisphere during boreal winter? In this study, we examine a set of global climate model simulations in which the eccentricity and precession of Earth’s orbit are altered to change the boreal winter mean state in an attempt to reveal the processes that are responsible for the MJO’s amplitude in the boreal winter. In response to the forced insolation changes, the north–south asymmetry in sea surface temperature is amplified in boreal fall, which intensifies the Hadley circulation in boreal winter. The stronger Hadley circulation yields higher mean precipitation and stronger mean lower-tropospheric westerlies in the southern part of the Indo-Pacific warm pool. The MJO precipitation variability increases significantly where the mean precipitation and lower-tropospheric westerlies strengthen. In the column-integrated moisture budget of the simulated MJO, only surface latent heat flux feedback shows a trend that is consistent with the MJO’s amplitude, suggesting an important role for the surface latent heat flux feedback in the MJO’s amplitude during the boreal winter. An analysis of the moisture–precipitation relationship in the simulations shows that the increase in the mean precipitation lowers the convective moisture adjustment time scale, leading to the increase in precipitation variance. Our results suggest that the mean-state precipitation plays a critical role in the maintenance mechanism of the MJO.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

Scaling kinetic Monte-Carlo simulations of grain growth with combined convolutional and graph neural networks

Graph neural networks (GNN) have emerged as a promising machine learning method for microstructure simulations such as grain growth. However, accurate modeling of realistic grain boundary networks requires large simulation cells, which GNN has difficulty scaling up to. To alleviate the computational costs and memory footprint of GNN, we suggest a hybrid architecture combining a convolutional neural network (CNN) based bijective autoencoder to compress the spatial dimensions, and a GNN that evolves the microstructure in the latent space of reduced spatial sizes. Our results demonstrate that the new design significantly reduces computational costs with using fewer message passing layer (from 12 down to 3) compared with GNN alone. The reduction in computational cost becomes more pronounced as the spatial size increases, indicating strong computational scalability. For the largest mesh evaluated (160 3 ), our method reduces memory usage and runtime in inference by 117× and 115×, respectively, compared with GNN-only baseline. More importantly, it shows higher accuracy and stronger spatiotemporal capability than the GNN-only baseline, especially in long-term testing. Such combination of scalability and accuracy is essential for simulating realistic material microstructures over extended time scales. The improvements can be attributed to the bijective autoencoder’s ability to compress information losslessly from spatial domain into a high dimensional feature space, thereby producing more expressive latent features for the GNN to learn from, while also contributing its own spatiotemporal modeling capability. Training data are generated from stochastic grain growth simulations, providing realistic variability for learning robust microstructure evolution. Comprehensive system validation confirms that the model is accurate, robust, and scalable.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity Study for Forecasting Variables of WRF-Solar Using a Tangent Linear Approach

Integrating solar generation in recent years has highlighted the need for improved accuracy in predicting solar power. Confidence in solar power forecasting can be achieved by designing an ensemble that provides reliable probabilistic information for solar radiation with reduced uncertainty and error. Ideally, ensemble members are created through the optimized perturbation of the initial conditions in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Tangent linear models are capable of efficiently investigating the sensitivity of solar radiation to model input parameters because they do not require individual perturbation of each variable. This sensitivity study using tangent linear models provide us the capability to identify the right variables to perturb in an ensemble prediction system. In this study, we developed tangent linear models for WRF-Solar modules that directly impact the computation of solar radiation and the simulation of cloud formation and dissipation including the Fast All-sky Model for Solar Applications (FARMS), the Noah land surface model (LSM), the Thompson microphysics, the Mello-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization, and the Deng scheme for a shallow-convection parameterization. A sensitivity analysis was conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) and WRF-Solar, respectively. Critical forecasting variables that are highly sensitive to the forecasting of global horizontal irradiance (GHI), direct normal irradiance (DNI), cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes were determined using the relevant WRF-Solar module. This study will be used as a guidance on future research leading to high-quality probabilistic solar forecasting. In this presentation, we discuss the validation of tangent linear approach for WRF-Solar modules and illustrate how the sensitivity results are valuable in the improvement of probabilistic solar prediction.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Meteorological Variables and Energy Fluxes at the Pumphouse Site, Crested Butte, CO 2017-2019

This data contains output from the pumphouse eddy covariance tower that includes shortwave radiation, longwave radiation, net radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, as well as sensible, latent, and ground heat fluxes. Also included is calculated evapotranspiration from the latent heat flux and the latent heat of vaporization. All data are on a daily timestep and displayed in Mountain Time. The data has been processed, and Quality Assurance / Quality Control (QA/QC) was done, but any daily gaps in the data have not been filled in. This research was funded by the Department of Energy and performed as part of the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area. This research aimed to constrain evapotranspiration in a high-elevation catchment.The dataset includes one comma-separated values (CSV) data file (EddyCovariance_MeteorlogicalVariables_CrestedButtePumphouse.csv). Additionally, three metadata CSV files are included: (1) location metadata file (locations.csv), which contains location metadata and coordinates; (2) a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata; and (3) a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type.This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Laboratory Heat Flux Estimates of Seawater Foam for Low Wind Speeds

Laboratory experiments were conducted to measure the heat flux from seafoam continuously generated in natural seawater. Using a control volume technique, heat flux was calculated from foam and foam-free surfaces as a function of ambient humidity (ranged from 40% to 78%), air–water temperature difference (ranged from -9 °C to 0 °C), and wind speed (variable up to 3 m s-1). Water-surface skin temperature was imaged with a calibrated thermal infrared camera, and near-surface temperature profiles in the air, water, and foam were recorded. Net heat flux from foam surfaces increased with increasing wind speed and was shown to be up to four times greater than a foam-free surface. The fraction of the total heat flux due to the latent heat flux was observed for foam to be 0.75, with this value being relatively constant with wind speed. In contrast, for a foam-free surface the fraction of the total heat flux due to the latent heat flux decreased at higher wind speeds. Temperature profiles through foam are linear and have larger gradients, which increased with wind speed, while foam free surfaces show the expected logarithmic profile and show no variation with temperature. The radiometric surface temperatures show that foam is cooler and more variable than a foam-free surface, and bubble-resolving thermal images show that radiometrically transparent bubble caps and burst bubbles reveal warm foam below the cool surface layer, contributing to the enhanced variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Learning effective SDEs from Brownian dynamic simulations of colloidal particles

We construct a reduced, data-driven, parameter dependent effective stochastic differential equation (eSDE) for electric-field mediated colloidal crystallization using data obtained from Brownian dynamics simulations. We use diffusion maps (a manifold learning algorithm) to identify a set of useful latent observables. In this latent space we identify an eSDE using a deep learning architecture inspired by numerical stochastic integrators and compare it with the traditional Kramers–Moyal expansion estimation. We show that the obtained variables and the learned dynamics accurately encode the physics of the Brownian dynamic simulations. We further illustrate that our reduced model captures the dynamics of corresponding experimental data. Further, our dimension reduction/reduced model identification approach can be easily ported to a broad class of particle systems dynamics experiments/models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

EPiC-GAN: Equivariant point cloud generation for particle jets

With the vast data-collecting capabilities of current and future high-energy collider experiments, there is an increasing demand for computationally efficient simulations. Generative machine learning models enable fast event generation, yet so far these approaches are largely constrained to fixed data structures and rigid detector geometries. In this paper, we introduce EPiC-GAN - equivariant point cloud generative adversarial network - which can produce point clouds of variable multiplicity. This flexible framework is based on deep sets and is well suited for simulating sprays of particles called jets. The generator and discriminator utilize multiple EPiC layers with an interpretable global latent vector. Crucially, the EPiC layers do not rely on pairwise information sharing between particles, which leads to a significant speed-up over graph- and transformer-based approaches with more complex relation diagrams. We demonstrate that EPiC-GAN scales well to large particle multiplicities and achieves high generation fidelity on benchmark jet generation tasks.

Buhmann, Erik↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of the Surface Fluxes for Heat and Momentum in Unstable Conditions with Machine Learning and Similarity Approaches for the LAFE Data Set

Abstract Measurements of three flux towers operated during the land atmosphere feedback experiment (LAFE) are used to investigate relationships between surface fluxes and variables of the land–atmosphere system. We study these relations by means of two machine learning (ML) techniques: multilayer perceptrons (MLP) and extreme gradient boosting (XGB). We compare their flux derivation performance with Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) and a similarity relationship using the bulk Richardson number (BRN). The ML approaches outperform MOST and BRN. Best agreement with the observations is achieved for the friction velocity. For the sensible heat flux and even more so for the latent heat flux, MOST and BRN deviate from the observations while MLP and XGB yield more accurate predictions. Using MOST and BRN for latent heat flux, the root mean square errors (RMSE) are 107 Wm $$^{-2}$$ - 2 and 121 Wm $$^{-2}$$ - 2 , respectively, as well as the intercepts of the regression lines are $$\approx 110$$ ≈ 110 Wm $$^{-2}$$ - 2 . For the ML methods, the RMSEs reduce to 31 Wm $$^{-2}$$ - 2 for MLP and 33 Wm $$^{-2}$$ - 2 for XGB as well as the intercepts to just 4 Wm $$^{-2}$$ - 2 for MLP and $$-1$$ - 1 Wm $$^{-2}$$ - 2 for XGB with slopes of the regression lines close to 1, respectively. These results indicate significant deficiencies of MOST and BRN, particularly for the derivation of the latent heat flux. In fact, in contrast to the established theories, feature importance weighting demonstrates that the ML methods base their improved derivations on net radiation, the incoming and outgoing shortwave radiations, the air temperature gradient, and the available water contents, but not on the water vapor gradient. The results imply that further studies of surface fluxes and other turbulent variables with ML techniques provide great promise for deriving advanced flux parameterizations and their implementation in land–atmosphere system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Study on Closely Related Citrus CMMs based on Chemometrics and Prediction of Components-Targets-Diseases Network by Ingenuity Pathway Analysis

As the representatives of closely related Chinese medicinal materials (CMMs) originated from Rutaceae family, Aurantii fructus immaturus (AFI), Aurantii fructus (AF), Citri reticulatae pericarpium viride (CRPV), and Citri reticulatae pericarpium (CRP) have better functions in regulating qi and promoting gastrointestinal motility. However, differences in the quality of closely related Citrus CMMs have not yet been revealed until now. Herein, this study focused on the systematic differentiation and in-depth understanding of closely related Citrus CMMs by a strategy integrating chemometrics and network pharmacology. Determined by ultra performance liquid chromatography, the content of nine flavonoids showed obvious fluctuations in the decoction pieces from different species (Citrus aurantium Linnaeus and Citrus reticulate Blanco) with decreasing levels in the samples of ripe fruits. Decoction pieces from the different species and ripening stages were well distinguished by orthogonal projection to latent structure-discriminate analysis (OPLS-DA) and cluster analysis. As a result, four active components including narirutin, naringenin, hesperidin, and 3,5,6,7,8,3′,4′-heptemthoxyflavone were filtered out by variable importance for the projection (VIP) value (VIP > 1.0), which were regarded as chemotaxonomic markers. Furthermore, a components-targets-diseases network was constructed via ingenuity pathway analysis (IPA), and the correlations were predicted between four chemotaxonomic markers, 223 targets, and three diseases including colitis, breast cancer, and colorectal cancer. The obtained results will be of great significance for identifying closely related Citrus CMMs and conduce to improving the resource utilization of CMMs.

Mu, Qixuan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unsupervised Process Anomaly Detection and Identification Using the Leave-One-Variable-Out Approach

Automated anomaly detection and identification can signal equipment issues and pinpoint causes in large-scale industrial systems. For systems with limited failure history, unsupervised machine learning methods can be utilized as they do not require past failures. This study introduces the leave-one-variable-out (LOVO) model, which masks one variable at a time to predict the others, learning underlying process correlations. Detection performance was assessed with synthetic and experimental data, while identification performance used only synthetic data due to its ability to generate labeled anomaly types. For detection using synthetic data, the LOVO model generally outperformed comparative models; while using experimental data, the comparative methods outperformed the LOVO model. However, the comparative methods required selecting a latent size, and these conclusions pertain to using the optimal size. In practice, it would not be feasible to always select the optimal value, and incorrect selections impacted performance. In contrast, the LOVO model does not require a latent space. For identification using synthetic data, the LOVO model was slightly outperformed in interpretability and repeatability but still demonstrated impressive results. These outcomes suggest that the LOVO model is an effective model and may be more easily implemented without the challenging tuning process of selecting a latent size.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Aerosol emissions from water-lean solvents for post-combustion CO 2 capture

Advanced water-lean solvents (WLS) for post-combustion CO 2 capture have been gaining interest due to their ability to reduce the parasitic penalty from energy needed for solvent regeneration. Commercial implementation of these novel CO 2 capture technologies hinges on successful control of amine emissions. RTI conducted a parametric study of fundamental and operational variables influence on overall amine aerosol and vapor emissions from our water-lean solvent eCO 2 Sol™ using our 6-kW equivalent bench-scale gas absorption system. The parametric testing used a simulated flue gas with 15 % CO 2 , 2.3–4.2 % H 2 O, and 0–6 ppm sulfite (SO 3 ) to examine the impact of the presence of aerosols to the capture performance and amine emissions from the system. The SO 3 reacts with water in the flue gas to create H 2 SO 4 , which forms liquid aerosol droplets and provide nucleation sites for growth of aerosols. Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer and Aerodynamic Particle Sizer instruments monitored the aerosol particle size distribution. Parametric testing results suggested that the presence of the aerosols in the flue gas could increase the overall amine emissions by 10X compared to the baseline emissions from WLS’s vapor pressure. Principal component analysis (PCA) and projection to latent squares (PLS) developed models to predict the aerosol-based amine emissions from process data. The predictive PLS model had a correlation coefficient (Q 2 ) of 0.92 and could predict the aerosol-based emissions from the NAS process with ±15 % accuracy (average absolute deviation, AAD). The PLS regression model also identified key variables affecting aerosol-based emissions from WLS.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Explaining and predicting human behavior and social dynamics in simulated virtual worlds: reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of causal discovery methods

Ground Truth program was designed to evaluate social science modeling approaches using simulation test beds with ground truth intentionally and systematically embedded to understand and model complex Human Domain systems and their dynamics Lazer et al. (Science 369:1060–1062, 2020). Our multidisciplinary team of data scientists, statisticians, experts in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and visual analytics had a unique role on the program to investigate accuracy, reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of the state-of-the-art (SOTA) causal structure learning approaches applied to fully observed and sampled simulated data across virtual worlds. In addition, we analyzed the feasibility of using machine learning models to predict future social behavior with and without causal knowledge explicitly embedded. In this paper, we first present our causal modeling approach to discover the causal structure of four virtual worlds produced by the simulation teams—Urban Life, Financial Governance, Disaster and Geopolitical Conflict. Our approach adapts the state-of-the-art causal discovery (including ensemble models), machine learning, data analytics, and visualization techniques to allow a human-machine team to reverse-engineer the true causal relations from sampled and fully observed data. We next present our reproducibility analysis of two research methods team’s performance using a range of causal discovery models applied to both sampled and fully observed data, and analyze their effectiveness and limitations. We further investigate the generalizability and robustness to sampling of the SOTA causal discovery approaches on additional simulated datasets with known ground truth. Our results reveal the limitations of existing causal modeling approaches when applied to large-scale, noisy, high-dimensional data with unobserved variables and unknown relationships between them. We show that the SOTA causal models explored in our experiments are not designed to take advantage from vasts amounts of data and have difficulty recovering ground truth when latent confounders are present; they do not generalize well across simulation scenarios and are not robust to sampling; they are vulnerable to data and modeling assumptions, and therefore, the results are hard to reproduce. Finally, when we outline lessons learned and provide recommendations to improve models for causal discovery and prediction of human social behavior from observational data, we highlight the importance of learning data to knowledge representations or transformations to improve causal discovery and describe the benefit of causal feature selection for predictive and prescriptive modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗