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DOE OSTI2023

Techno-economic Analysis of the Cryogenic Flux Capacitor Compared to Other forms of Hydrogen Production and Storage

The Cryogenic Flux Capacitor (CFC) is a cold, dense energy storage core that is being studied in the cryo-compressed, about 300 bar and 80K, region of gaseous hydrogen (GH2) storage and liquid hydrogen (LH2) region near the normal boiling point. The hydrogens storage is improved by physically bonding the molecules within the nanoscale pores of the aerogel composite blanket material. The process of bonding or debonding is governed by principles of physical adsorption (physisorption) and thermodynamics. The large surface area afforded by the nanoporous aerogel (~1,000 m2/g) allows its storage performance to easily exceed capacities of high-pressure GH2 storage for an equivalent volume. With the integrated aerogel, subscale tests have shown that storage is increased by about 49% over a simple tank filled with GH2 at the same operating temperature and pressure. For LH2 conditions, the CFC is shown to operate at equivalent densities. For the techno-economic analysis (TEA), the source of hydrogen is compared between onsite steam methane reforming (SMR) and onsite solar photovoltaic (PV) panels providing power to electrolyzers to produce GH2. The TEA compares pure hydrogen burning in a combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) to hydrogen fuel cells with an overall net power output of 650 MW. The SMR system uses natural gas as an input and includes a carbon capture and storage (CCS) system. The levelized cost of electricity is developed based on the capital cost and operating cost of the systems. Sensitivities are discussed around the cost of natural gas, ranging from 1.93 USD per MMBTU to 6.75 USD per MMBTU, and carbon dioxide disposal, ranging from 7 USD per tonne to 10 USD per tonne. For comparison to the conventional CCGT baseline, a baseload scenario is adopted with 85% capacity factor. The results of the study show that onsite hydrogen generation from SMR is about 1 to 3 USD per kg over the life of the plant and the PV hydrogen production produces at 4 to 5 USD per kg. The cost of storage for CFC is compared to other systems, including high-pressure GH2 and atmospheric LH2. The system is shown to provide the lowest costs for all these options at the grid scale, due to its higher capacity than high-pressure GH2 and ability to operate at 80K, receiving refrigeration from liquid nitrogen systems reducing capital and operating costs when compared LH2 storage systems. SMR is competitive with CCGT at the gas prices, both of which have lower LCOE than the PV system. When accounting for variability in gas prices, the PV and electrolyzer system is less sensitive to these changes and provides the lowest LCOE across the whole range.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cooled Gas Turbine and Combined Cycle Analysis for NH 3 -CH 4 Fuel Mixes (Up to 100% NH 3 )

In this study, a cooled gas turbine (GT) analysis was conducted for varying levels of ammonia (NH 3 ) blends with methane. The ultimate goal is to have a gas turbine design that can be used for all the fuel blends (including 100% NH 3 ) without any changes to the system. The technological developments in the cooling system, gas turbine design, and materials that will be required for NH 3 combustion were identified and analyzed in this study to develop an advanced gas turbine design for NH 3 fuels. The study includes a combined cycle performance analysis with the NH 3 fuel blends using the advanced gas turbine design developed in this study. A techno-economic analysis was conducted for analyzing the impact of the NH 3 fuels on the levelized cost of electricity and cost sensitivities to fuel price and capacity factor.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

R&D to Ensure a Scientific Basis for Qualification Tests and Standards (Final Report)

Project return on investment in a photovoltaic (PV) system depends increasingly on maintaining high energy yields, and the system lifetime is a major factor in levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Thus, the rate of PV deployment and the success of these assets depends upon reliable long-term power generation. The overarching objective of this program is to improve photovoltaic (PV) module reliability via development of tests and standards. Where reliability problems or risk are discovered, we can design tests to ensure that these liabilities don't affect future generations of products. Customers can use these tests to understand which products are susceptible to certain degradation mechanisms, and manufacturers can use the tests to design unwanted characteristics out of their products. The work under this program identifies PV reliability needs, performs characterization that provides scientific understanding of targeted degradation mechanisms, and translates those data into practical and predictive test protocols and standards. Major accomplishments include: A model for polarization-type potential induced degradation (PID-p) was developed and validated against experimental data. NREL is currently leading a new edition of IEC 62804-1 for PID detection. PID-p can cause large losses in current and voltage for some module designs on cloudy days. Finite element modeling (FEM) and experiment was used to determine when cells crack in a module. It was shown that cells in landscape orientation are much more likely to crack than those on portrait orientation. Shortly thereafter, the first products with portrait-oriented cells were introduced. Studies of how to test for light and elevated temperature degradation (LeTID) culminated with the publication of IEC TS 63342. Software to predict the progression of LeTID was developed, validated, and made publicly available. Field validated tests and international standards for durability of PV module coatings abrasion, backsheets, and encapsulants were developed. Examples are IEC 62788-1-1, IEC 62788-2 ED2, IEC TS 62788-7-2, IEC 62788-7-3 ED1, IEC 63209-2. NREL led the development a high-temperature testing technical specification, and published guidelines that enable installers to determine whether higher-temperature testing is needed, simply based on location and mounting configuration. In a number of our case studies, variations in the bills of materials or workmanship have been associated with variations in reliability. These observations emphasize the importance of quality assurance to reliability. A framework for criticality (i.e. Pareto) analysis was developed and published. The framework helps us and other researchers determine what problems should be addressed for reliability research to have the biggest industry impact. NREL continues to participate actively in international standards development and stakeholder engagement activities, including organizing an annual PV Reliability Workshop. These activities are important for ensuring we address issues that are relevant and timely, and that we convey our results to those who may benefit.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bench-scale Development of a Transformational Graphene Oxide-based Membrane Process for Post-combustion CO 2 Capture

Graphene-based materials, such as graphene and graphene oxide (GO), have been considered as next-generation membrane materials. GTI Energy and The State University of New York at Buffalo (UB) have been developing a transformational GO-based membrane process (designated as GO2) that integrates a high CO 2 /N 2 selectivity membrane (GO-1) and a high CO 2 flux membrane (GO-2) for post-combustion CO 2 capture. An innovative membrane structure, consisting of GO nanochannels intercalated by single-walled carbon nanotube (SWCNT), was developed. The membrane prepared on hollow fiber substrate showed CO 2 permeance as high as 1,300 GPU with CO 2 /N 2 selectivity >200. The membranes were successfully scaled up to effective area of 50-100 cm 2 . The 50-100 cm 2 membranes showed CO 2 /N 2 selectivity ≥200 and CO 2 permeance ≥1,000 GPU for the GO-1 type, and CO 2 /N 2 selectivity ≥20 and CO 2 permeance ≥2,500 GPU for the GO-2 type. The CO 2 capture performance of the GO-based membranes was tested using a simulated flue gas. The testing results indicate that the GO-based membranes are stable in the presence of flue gas contaminants. The GO-based membranes were then further scaled up to a surface area of 1,000 cm 2 . Good stability was achieved during an integrated testing with GO-1 and GO-2 membranes using simulated flue gas. A bench-scale system was designed, constructed, and tested at the National Carbon Capture Center (NCCC). Good stability was achieved during testing of a single-stage process with >10 shutdowns/startups at NCCC. During the integrated testing, the membranes showed good stability at 50°C and 57°C. 70-90% CO 2 removal efficiencies and ≥95% CO 2 purity were validated during the steady state operation at NCCC. Techno-economic analysis indicates the GO2 membrane-based process technology provides a reduction in both the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and cost of capture when compared to the reference B12B case presented in the Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants Volume 1: Bituminous Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity study prepared by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), before considering any system optimization or improvement opportunities. The benefits are primarily driven by a reduction in the equipment costs of the CO 2 capture process vs. the solvent-based reference process in NETL Case B12B as well as a decrease in the base plant size.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Plastic Additive, Sorbent-Coated, Thermally Integrated Contactor for CO 2 Capture (PLASTIC4CO2) (Final Report)

Final report for Plastic Additive, Sorbent-Coated, Thermally Integrated Contactor for CO2 Capture (PLASTIC4CO2) DE-FE-0032132. The goal of the work was to investigate at a technology readiness level of 3 (TRL 3), the proof of concept of an additively printed plastic 2-channel heat exchanger/sorbent contactor system to achieve a 15% lower levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) than a baseline liquid phase amine adsorber system for 90% and 95% capture of CO 2 from both a 7F02 2x1CC and 7HA02 2x1CC natural gas turbines.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Integrated Process Model Utilization and Development for Inertial Fusion Energy

This CRADA between LLNS and Longview Fusion Energy Systems utilized a modernized LLNL Integrated Process Model (IPM) to assess technoeconomic viability and power plant configurations for Inertial Fusion Energy (IFE). During the collaboration period, a streamlined IPM model was produced by LLNL, which consolidated a combination of 3 models under one file. Additionally, obsolete parameters were removed and parameters available for trade space analysis were organized in a user-friendly fashion on the front interface. Gain scaling curves were discussed and analyzed in the framework of the IPM. Additional updates were made to account for cost scaling to today's dollars using an average inflation rate. Heat transfer material costing was updated using a ground up approach with public vendor data. Further levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) methods and models were discussed and reviewed for applicability to the IPM. Prior published literature on optical scaling was also discussed. Moreover, as part of this CRADA, the Participant developed a fusion technology development roadmap and point designs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Integrated Process Model Utilization and Development for Inertial Fusion Energy

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Process Design and Techno-Economic Analysis of the Modular Staged Pressurized Oxy-Combustion (SPOC) Power Plant for Biomass

This work describes the process design and techno-economic analysis (TEA) of the modular SPOC power plant for biomass firing and coal-biomass co-firing. Two Rankine cycles were considered: a supercritical steam cycle (242 bar, 593°C, 593°C) with 550 MWe net output and a subcritical cycle (166 bar, 566°C, 566°C) with 200 MWe net output. For both cases, 95% carbon capture was modeled, and hybrid poplar biomass was chosen to generate carbon-negative power. In addition, the supercritical 500 MWe case included a 25% biomass co-firing (carbon neutral) case. For both cycles, a 100% Powder River Basin coal firing case was used for comparison purposes. In the SPOC process, oxygen is produced via a cryogenic air separation unit (ASU) and the heat generated from the compression of air is integrated into the steam cycle and utilized for boiler feed water pre-heating. Unique to the SPOC process, the boilers are pressurized and arranged in a series-parallel configuration, with minimized flue gas recirculation. The flue gas is cooled and scrubbed in the direct-contact cooler (DCC) column, and the moisture in the flue gas is condensed, leaving the bottom of the DCC at a sufficiently high temperature such that it can be used for boiler feed water pre-heating, improving plant thermal efficiency. Following drying and purification, CO2 in the flue gas is at the purity required for storage or utilization. The performance data were obtained from process modelling via Aspen Plus®. The stream data from Aspen Plus® were used as an input for the AACE Class 5 cost study. Ultimately, the capital costs, Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), and cost of CO2 captured and avoided were obtained. The HHV efficiency of the carbon negative 550 MWe supercritical SPOC case (34.8%) was clearly above those reported by NETL for the BECCS baseline cases of supercritical pulverized coal with capture (B12B, 31.5%) and the 49% biomass co-firing case with capture (PA3, 29.2%). The HHV efficiency of the carbon-negative subcritical plant is also higher than the subcritical baseline PC plant with capture (case B11B.95) presented by NETL (32% vs 29.7%). The LCOE for the SPOC 100% biomass case was similar to the LCOE for the BECCS 49% biomass with carbon capture case ($147/MWh), and the SPOC carbon neutral case LCOE was lower ($110/MWh) than the cost for the NETL baseline SC coal firing case with 90% carbon capture ($114/MWh).

Magalhaes, Duarte↗

DOE OSTI2025

Co-Firing Switchgrass and Waste Coal in A Power Plant: A Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Evaluation for The Ohio River Valley (SWITCH) (Final Technical Report for Ohio State/FE0032204)

Abandoned coal mine lands (AMLs) represent one of the most persistent environmental challenges in the United States. Prior to the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) in 1977, coal mining operations were not legally required to reclaim disturbed lands, leaving behind approximately 500,000 AML sites nationwide. These sites pose severe environmental and health risks, including acid mine drainage, soil and water contamination, and spontaneous combustion of waste coal piles. Millions of Americans live within one mile of these AMLs, underscoring the urgency of remediation. Traditional reclamation practices, such as planting cool-season grasses, often fail to fully restore ecological function or leverage the economic potential of these lands. This project addressed these challenges by developing integrated strategies for resource recovery, land reclamation, and sustainable energy production. This project evaluated an integrated strategy to convert this liability into an opportunity by recovering waste coal and co-firing it with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) cultivated on reclaimed or marginal AML areas in existing coal-fired power plants. Switchgrass not only provides a renewable feedstock but also aids in land reclamation and carbon sequestration. 1) Remote Sensing and Machine Learning for Waste Coal Identification Using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and supervised classification, we applied four machine learning models to detect historical waste coal piles. Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (precision: 86%, recall: 77%). Time-series analysis revealed gradual vegetation recovery since 1986, indicating natural reclamation processes in historical sites, while active mining areas showed ongoing disturbance. This workflow enables scalable monitoring and prioritization of reclamation efforts. 2) UAS-Based Stockpile Volume Estimation To quantify recoverable waste coal, we evaluated Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) equipped with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and multispectral sensors. Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry combined with interpolated Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) achieved strong agreement with LiDAR reference volumes (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≈147 m 3 , Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ≈2%). Sensitivity analysis confirmed that spatial resolution significantly influences accuracy, emphasizing the need for high-resolution data for precise volume estimation. This approach offers a scalable, cost-effective, and accurate alternative to conventional ground-based surveys. 3) Switchgrass Cultivation for Bioenergy and Water Quality Improvement We assessed the hydrological and water quality impacts of converting AMLs to switchgrass production areas using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Results showed that converting 10% of the watershed area into the switchgrass production zone reduced streamflow by 3.1%, total suspended solids by 18.1%, total nitrogen by 7.6%, and total phosphorus by 6.2%, while achieving biomass yields of 8.6–9.2 metric tons per hectare. These findings highlight switchgrass as a dual-benefit strategy for land reclamation and bioenergy feedstock production. 4) Integrated Co-Firing and CCS for Carbon-Negative Power Generation We modeled co-firing scenarios using the Power Plant Flexible Model (PPFM) to evaluate plant efficiency, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Without carbon capture and storage (CCS), increasing switchgrass co-firing ratios reduced LCOE from $\$$150/MWh at 0% biomass to $\$$110/MWh at full substitution. Under CCS, costs remained higher (~$\$$250/MWh at 0% biomass) but decreased to $\$$200/MWh at 100% biomass, while enabling net-zero or carbon-negative electricity due to switchgrass sequestration benefits. Although CCS introduced efficiency penalties, pairing it with biomass co-firing offset these impacts and maximized climate benefits. Overall, optimizing co-firing ratios between 60-100%, supported by reliable logistics and storage strategies, emerged as a practical pathway to balance affordability, sustainability, and net-zero or negative GHG emissions while promoting productive reuse of AMLs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2025

Compact Counter Flow Fluidized Bed Heat Exchanger (Final Report)

Generation 3 concentrating solar power systems which utilize solid granular media as the heat transfer and storage media hold promise in reducing the levelized cost of electricity relative to generation 2 systems which utilize molten salt. The particles can be heated to temperatures exceeding 800 °C which enables the use of high efficiency supercritical CO 2 Brayton power cycles. A key challenge associate with the use of solid media is its low bulk thermal conductivity which limits the ability to transfer heat from the particles to a working fluid, such as supercritical CO 2 . Tradition shell and tube and shell and plate heat exchangers feature gravity driven particle flow which limits the maximum particle side heat transfer coefficient in these systems to approximately 400 W/m 2 K. A fluidized bed heat exchanger does not rely solely on gravity for particle flow. Instead, enhanced mixing and horizontal conveyance is achieved through fluidization induced through air injection at the bottom of a bed of particles. A tube bundle within the bed conveys the supercritical CO 2 which is heated via the turbulent particle motion at the tube wall.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Techno-Economic Analysis of a Concentrating Solar Power Plant Using Redox-Active Metal Oxides as Heat Transfer Fluid and Storage Media

We present results for a one-dimensional quasi-steady-state thermodynamic model developed for a 111.7 MW e concentrating solar power (CSP) system using a redox-active metal oxide as the heat storage media and heat transfer agent integrated with a combined cycle air Brayton power block. In the energy charging and discharging processes, the metal oxide CaAl 0.2 Mn 0.8 O 2.9-δ (CAM28) undergoes a reversible, high temperature redox cycle including an endothermic oxygen-releasing reaction and exothermic oxygen-incorporation reaction. Concentrated solar radiation heats the redox-active oxide particles under partial vacuum to drive the reduction extent deeper for increased energy density at a fixed temperature, thereby increasing storage capacity while limiting the required on sun temperature. Direct counter-current contact of the reduced particles with compressed air from the Brayton compressor releases stored chemical and sensible energy, heating the air to 1,200°C at the turbine inlet while cooling and reoxidizing the particles. The cool oxidized particles recirculate through the solar receiver subsystem for another cycle of heating and reduction (oxygen release). We applied the techno-economic model to 1) size components, 2) examine intraday operation with varying solar insolation, 3) estimate annual performance characteristics over a simulated year, 4) estimate the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), and 5) perform sensitivity analyses to evaluate factors that affect performance and cost. Simulations use hourly solar radiation data from Barstow, California to assess the performance of a 111.7 MW e system with solar multiples (SMs) varying from 1.2 to 2.4 and storage capacities of 6–14 h. The baseline system with 6 h storage and SM of 1.8 has a capacity factor of 54.2%, an increase from 32.3% capacity factor with no storage, and an average annual energy efficiency of 20.6%. Calculations show a system with an output of 710 GWh e net electricity per year, 12 h storage, and SM of 2.4 to have an installed cost of $329 million, and an LCOE of 5.98 ¢/kWh e . This value meets the U.S. Department of Energy’s SunShot 2020 target of 6.0 ¢/kWh e ( U. S Department of Energy, 2012 ), but falls just shy of the 5.0 ¢/kWh e 2030 CSP target for dispatchable electricity ( U. S Department of Energy, 2017 ). The cost and performance results are minimally sensitive to most design parameters. However, a one-point change in the weighted annual cost of capital from 8 to 7% (better understood as a 12.5% change) translates directly to an 11% decrease (0.66 ¢/kWhe) in the LCOE.

Gorman, Brandon T.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Techno-Economic Optimization of CSP Plants with Free-Falling Particle Receivers

Particle receivers are one of the candidates for the next generation of CSP plants, whose goal is to reduce the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) to 0.05 $/kWh. This paper presents a techno-economic analysis to study if a CSP system with free-falling particle receiver can achieve this goal. The plant analyzed integrates two ground-based bins to store the excess energy and a supercritical CO2 cycle to generate electricity. The model used for the analysis presents several upgrades to previous particle systems models in order to increase its fidelity, accuracy, and representativeness of an actual system. The main upgrades are the addition of off-design conditions during the annual simulations in all the components and an improved receiver model validated against CFD simulations. The size of the main components is optimized to obtain the system configuration with minimum LCOE. The results show that particle CSP systems can reduce the LCOE to 0.056 $/kWh if the configuration is composed of 1.61 × 106 m2 of heliostats, a 250 m high tower with a 537 m2 falling particle curtain, and 16 h thermal energy storage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Dense Particle Flow in Multistage and Obstructed Flow Receivers Using High Fidelity Simulations

Particles are a leading contender for next-generation, concentrating solar power technologies, and the design of the particle receiver is critical to minimize the levelized cost of electricity. Falling particle receivers (FPRs) are a viable receiver concept, but many new designs feature complex particle obstructions that include dense discrete phase flows. This creates additional challenges for modeling as particle-to-particle interactions (i.e., collisions) and particle drag become more complex. To improve upon existing modeling strategies, a CFD-DEM simulation capability was created by coupling two independent codes: Sierra/Fuego and LAMMPS. A suitable receiver model was then defined using a traditional continuum-based model for the air and a granular model for the particle curtain. A sensitivity study was executed using this model to determine the relevance of different granular model inputs on important quantities of interest in obstructed flow FPRs: the particle velocity and curtain opacity. The study showed that the granular model inputs had little effect on the particle velocity magnitude and curtain opacity after an obstruction.

Mills, Brantley↗

NASA NTRS1978

Evaluation of the ECAS open cycle MHD power plant design

The Energy Conversion Alternatives Study (ECAS) MHD/steam power plant is described. The NASA critical evaluation of the design is summarized. Performance of the MHD plant is compared to that of the other type ECAS plant designs on the basis of efficiency and the 30-year levelized cost of electricity. Techniques to improve the plant design and the potential performance of lower technology plants requiring shorter development time and lower development cost are then discussed.

Seikel, G. R.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Advanced coal gasifier-fuel cell power plant systems design

Two advanced, high efficiency coal-fired power plants were designed, one utilizing a phosphoric acid fuel cell and one utilizing a molten carbonate fuel cell. Both incorporate a TRW Catalytic Hydrogen Process gasifier and regenerator. Both plants operate without an oxygen plant and without requiring water feed; they, instead, require makeup dolomite. Neither plant requires a shift converter; neither plant has heat exchangers operating above 1250 F. Both plants have attractive efficiencies and costs. While the molten carbonate version has a higher (52%) efficiency than the phosphoric acid version (48%), it also has a higher ($0.078/kWh versus $0.072/kWh) ten-year levelized cost of electricity. The phosphoric acid fuel cell power plant is probably feasible to build in the near term: questions about the TRW process need to be answered experimentally, such as weather it can operate on caking coals, and how effective the catalyzed carbon-dioxide acceptor will be at pilot scale, both in removing carbon dioxide and in removing sulfur from the gasifier.

Heller, M. E.↗

DOE OSTI2020

FINAL TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY STUDY ON THE APPLICATION OF A HEAT INTEGRATED POST-COMBUSTION CO2 CAPTURE SYSTEM WITH HITACHI ADVANCED SOLVENT INTO EXISTING COAL-FIRED POWER PLANT

This report contains the results of a techno-economic assessment (TEA) conducted of a heat integrated post-combustion CO2 capture process with Hitachi advanced solvent for retrofit into an existing coal-fired power plant (but treated as greenfield plant on cost analysis). The process has been developed by the University of Kentucky Center for Applied Energy (UK CAER). EPRI was chiefly responsible for this analysis, with significant input from WorleyParsons, Hitachi Power Systems America (Hitachi) and UK CAER. The project also involves the design, fabrication, installation, testing, and analyses of a slipstream facility located at L&GE-KU’s E.W. Brown Generating Station to demonstrate the UK CAER carbon capture system that could utilize heat integration with the main power plant. The design, start-up, and baseline of the pilot system was performed with a generic 30 wt% MEA solvent to obtain data for direct comparison with the DOE/NETL Reference Case followed by testing Hitachi’s proprietary solvent H3-1. In this techno-economic analysis, two cases utilizing the UK CAER process are compared, using different approach temperatures and solvent, against the DOE/NETL Reference Case (Case 10). The results are shown comparing the energy demand for post-combustion CO2 capture and the net higher heating value (HHV) efficiency of the power plant integrated with the post-combustion capture (PCC) plant. A levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) assessment was performed showing the costs of the options presented in the study. The key factors contributing to the reduction of LCOE were identified as CO2 partial pressure increase at the flue gas inlet, thermal integration of the process, and performance of the Hitachi H3-1 solvent. Recent UK CAER process pilot-scale testing data and process simualtion data showed that the packing heights of absorber and stripper columns were significantly oversized in the prelimanary TEA (Task 2 of this project) and thus updated in this final TEA for the H3-1 case only. In addition, the solvent make-up cost for H3-1 was updated based on lattest test results. Finally, a heat integration with the main power plant was applied in this final TEA to increase overall energy effciency for both the MEA and H3-1 cases. Additonal reductions in capital and operational costs are expected but not taken into account here. Shorter columns result in reduced pressure drops, smaller blower head and pump hydraulic head requirements. An increase in overall energy efficiency resuls in a decreased size of the power plant, the CCS and a reduced parasitic steam requirement to the CCS. The net efficiency of the UK CAER integrated PC power plant with CO2 capture changes from 26.2% for the Reference Case 10 plant in 2010 revised DOE/NETL baseline report to 27.6% for the MEA options considered, and 29.1% for the options utilizing the Hitachi advanced solvent. The UK CAER Process + Hitachi case also produces an extra 30.9 MW of generation compared to the UK CAER Process + MEA case and total 60.9 MW more than DOE Case 10. LCOE ($/MWh) values are $172.08/MWh for the MEA option and $157.65/MWh for the Hitachi H3-1 solvent cases considered in comparison to $189.59/MWh in January 2012 dollar for the Reference Case 10. The UK CAER CCS process with MEA case lowers energy consumption for CO2 capture to 1340 Btu/lb-CO2 captured as compared to 1540 Btu/lb-CO2 in the Reference Case 10. The UK CAER CCS process with H3-1 case further lowers energy consumption for CO2 capture to 973 Btu/lb-CO2 captured, for an advantage of 36.8% less energy consumption than Case 10. The study also shows 38.1% less heat rejection associated with the carbon capture system from 3398 MBtu/hr (Case 10) to 2104 MBtu/hr for the UK CAER + MEA system. Heat rejection is reduced to 2464 MBtu/hr in the UK CAER + H3-1 case, for a 27.5 % decrease compared to Case 10. Modeling outputs show that in the UK CAER process, the cooling water that is 2-5°C cooler than conventional cooling tower water can be achieved for ambient conditions common to the midwest and other regions. The results from the techno-economic assessment show that the proposed technology can be investigated further as a viable alternative to conventional CO2 capture technology. The evaluation also shows the effect of the critical parameters on the LCOE, with the main variables being the approach temperature and CO2 partial pressure increase at the flue gas inlet. A summary of the key advantages of the UK CAER Process + H3-1 case for LCOE and other economic factors compared to the DOE Case 10 is as follows: • A lower variable operating cost by $1.56/MWh ($1.08MWh less than the UK CAER Process + MEA Case), a 11.7% reduction compared to the DOE Case 10 • A lower COE by $25.32MWh ($13.94/MWh lower than the UK CAER Process + MEA Case), a 16.9% reduction compared to the DOE Case 10 • A lower LCOE by $31.94/MWh ($17.51/MWh lower than the UK CAER Process + MEA Case), a 16.9% reduction compared to the DOE Case 10 • A lower cost of CO2 captured by $18.65/tonne CO2 ($9.44/tonne CO2 lower than the UK CAER Process + MEA Case), a 30.4% reduction compared to the DOE Case 10 • A lower cost of CO2 avoided by $34.95/tonne CO2 ($18.53 tonne CO2 lower than the UK CAER Process + MEA Case), a 38.7% reduction compared to the DOE Case 10

Bhown, Abhoyjit S.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Quantification of Transition Scenario Simulations

This report documents the first collective attempt at developing and applying capabilities to quantify uncertainties, assess parametric sensitivities, and optimize multiple parameters and metrics in fuel cycle simulations generated by the SA&I Campaign. To do this, external codes that were designed to perform sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification (SA&UQ) needed to be coupled to the SA&I Campaign’s nuclear fuel cycle simulators (NFCS). In FY20, two approaches were pursued: 1) coupling Cyclus to an ORNL-internal code called MOT (Metaheuristic Optimization Tool) and 2) coupling DYMOND to the opensource SA&UQ tool kit Dakota. The primary objective of having these NFCS/SA&UQ coupled capabilities is to better inform DOE-NE and other stakeholders on the results generated from the NFCS. For a given set of fuel cycle strategies, policies, and technology assumptions that make up a fuel cycle scenario, these NFCS have traditionally been used by the SA&I Campaign to provide quantitative answers in terms of year-by-year mass flows, infrastructure requirements, costs, etc. With these newly developed coupled capabilities, the SA&I Campaign can now efficiently simulate hundreds or thousands of these scenarios, sample large ranges of parameters and assumptions, and use the unique features of the SA&UQ tools to process the data. This enables providing answers with known and propagated uncertainties, determining the sensitivity of important metrics to different parameters and assumptions, quantifying how much fuel cycle and technology parameters impact each other, and producing optimized fuel cycle strategies for single and multiple variables. To demonstrate these new capabilities, the Cyclus/MOT was used to model several scenarios ranging from simple fleet retirements to transitions to advanced reactors. Specifically, for a transition scenario from LWRs to SFRs and advanced LWRs, uncertainty quantification, sensitivity analysis, and optimization studies were applied to cases involving single and multiple parameter (input) and single and multiple metric (output) variations. In addition, a similar transition scenario was modeled to demonstrate how to optimize the reprocessing capacity parameter to minimize two performance metrics while taking into account uncertainties from two other parameters. Lastly, a depletion module based on SCALE/ORIGEN was added in Cyclus to simulate the third scenario that was designed to quantify the impact of the modeling assumption that all LWR used nuclear fuel have the same burnup. The newly developed DYMOND/Dakota capability was also applied to a transition scenario from the existing fleet to small modular reactors and fast reactors. This particular scenario involves not only explicit isotopic depletion via ORIGEN-2, but also includes multirecycling and utilizing the criticality search feature to determine the fresh fuel composition of recycled fuel, a feature unique to the DYMOND NFCS. A large database of simulations were run with 4 main parameters that were sampled: start date of reprocessing, reprocessing capacity, energy demand growth rate, and advanced reactor share of the fleet. The 4 main metrics were uranium consumption, enrichment requirements, waste generation, and levelized cost of electricity using data from the Cost Basis Report. The demonstrated SA&UQ results include those that inform on how to choose parameters to avoid “failed” scenarios, Sobol’ indices that inform on the importance of various parameters individually and synergistically, and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) studies that decompose parameter ranges into groups and informs on whether variations are statistically significant.

Feng, B.↗

DOE OSTI2020

LID and LeTID Impacts to PV Module Performance and System Economics: Draft Analysis

This webinar is a technical review of the measurements and causes of BO LID, UV LID and LeTID, as well as modeling their impacts to PV project financial metrics. We will first review how Boron-Oxygen complexes form and detail the range of impacts to PV module power ratings over time and across climates. Similarly, we will also discuss the measurements and extent of UV LID over time and across climates. Then, we will demonstrate a methodology for translating these effects to pro forma cash flow models and their impacts to PV project financial returns and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). We will conclude with estimates of the value of solutions to these degradation mechanisms.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗