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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Application of Dimensionality Reduction in Machine Learning Modeling of CO2 Storage

In this study, we developed deep learning models that are capable of predicting spatio-temporal outputs of CO2 saturation, pressure, and brine production in a 3D saline storage reservoir over 30 years of continuous CO2 injection and a 50-year post-injection timeframe. To improve computational efficiency and maintain performance accuracy, the model framework involves ensembling multi-layer autoencoder networks that provide dimensionality reduction of geologic inputs with fully connected long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks that generate time-series prediction. This study was presented as poster at the 2022 Carbon Management Project Review Meeting held in Pittsburgh, PA (August 15 – 19, 2022).

Bello, Kolawole↗
DOE OSTI2025

MSU IETC LSTM Ethernet Decode (AN EDGE)

This research explores the ability of machine learning to perform signal separation of an Ethernet style encoded, full-duplex communication. Typical signal separation currently requires an active tap of the communication line, followed by a recombination and retransmission of the data. The purpose of this research is to study a passive approach to data acquisition from a full-duplex signal. The machine learning model used in this research is a long-short-term memory recurrent neural network (LSTM-RNN). The results show that the LSTM was largely successful in recreating the transmission signal from the measured data points, though the separated signals have not yet been tested using a decoding method.

Full Duplex Signals↗
DOE OSTI2024

Temporal sequence transformer to advance long-term streamflow prediction

Accurate streamflow prediction is crucial for understanding climate change impacts on water resources and for effective management of extreme hydrological events. While Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks have been the dominant data-driven approach for streamflow forecasting, recent advancements in transformer architectures for time series tasks have shown promise in outperforming traditional LSTM models. This study introduces a transformer-based model that integrates historical streamflow data with climatic variables to enhance streamflow prediction accuracy. We evaluated our transformer model against a benchmark LSTM across five diverse basins in the United States. Results demonstrate that the transformer architecture consistently outperforms the LSTM model across all evaluation metrics, highlighting its potential as a more effective tool for hydrological forecasting. This research contributes to the ongoing development of advanced AI techniques for improved water resource management and climate change adaptation strategies.

Singh, Ruhaan [Farragut High School]↗
DOE OSTI2019

A deep learning approach to anomaly detection in geological carbon sequestration sites using pressure measurements

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has been extensively investigated as a potential engineering measure to reduce anthropogenic carbon emission to the atmosphere. Real-time monitoring of the safety and integrity of carbon storage reservoirs is a critical aspect of any commercial-scale CCS deployment. Pressure-based sensing is cost effective, suitable for real-time monitoring, and scalable to large monitoring networks. However, questions remain on how to best harness intelligent information from the high-frequency pressure monitoring sensors to support real-time decisions. Here this work presents a deep-learning-based framework for analyzing and detecting anomalies in pressure data streams by using a convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) neural network model, which allows for the fusion of both static and dynamic reservoir data. In ConvLSTM, the convolutional neural network (CNN) is used for spatial pattern mining and the LSTM is used for temporal pattern recognition. The performance of the ConvLSTM model for real-time anomaly detection is demonstrated using a set of pressure monitoring data collected from Cranfield, Mississippi, an active enhanced-oil-recovery field. The anomaly detection model is trained using bottom-hole pressure data acquired from the base experiment (without leak event) and then tested on pressure data collected during a series of controlled CO 2 release experiments (with artificially created leak events). Results show that the ConvLSTM neural network model successfully detected anomalies in the pressure time series obtained from the controlled release experiments. Inclusion of static information into the model further improves the robustness of ConvLSTM.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The suitability of differentiable, physics-informed machine learning hydrologic models for ungauged regions and climate change impact assessment

As a genre of physics-informed machine learning, differentiable process-based hydrologic models (abbreviated as δ or delta models) with regionalized deep-network-based parameterization pipelines were recently shown to provide daily streamflow prediction performance closely approaching that of state-of-the-art long short-term memory (LSTM) deep networks. Meanwhile, δ models provide a full suite of diagnostic physical variables and guaranteed mass conservation. Here, we ran experiments to test (1) their ability to extrapolate to regions far from streamflow gauges and (2) their ability to make credible predictions of long-term (decadal-scale) change trends. We evaluated the models based on daily hydrograph metrics (Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, etc.) and predicted decadal streamflow trends. For prediction in ungauged basins (PUB; randomly sampled ungauged basins representing spatial interpolation), δ models either approached or surpassed the performance of LSTM in daily hydrograph metrics, depending on the meteorological forcing data used. They presented a comparable trend performance to LSTM for annual mean flow and high flow but worse trends for low flow. For prediction in ungauged regions (PUR; regional holdout test representing spatial extrapolation in a highly data-sparse scenario), δ models surpassed LSTM in daily hydrograph metrics, and their advantages in mean and high flow trends became prominent. In addition, an untrained variable, evapotranspiration, retained good seasonality even for extrapolated cases. The δ models' deep-network-based parameterization pipeline produced parameter fields that maintain remarkably stable spatial patterns even in highly data-scarce scenarios, which explains their robustness. Combined with their interpretability and ability to assimilate multi-source observations, the δ models are strong candidates for regional and global-scale hydrologic simulations and climate change impact assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Novel Equivalent Model of Active Distribution Networks Based on LSTM

Dynamic behaviors of distribution networks are of great importance for the power system analysis. Nowadays, due to the integration of the renewable energy generation, energy storage, plug-in electric vehicles, and distribution networks turn from passive systems to active ones. Hence, the dynamic behaviors of active distribution networks (ADNs) are much more complex than the traditional ones. The research interests how to establish an accurate model of ADNs in modern power systems are drawing a great deal of attention. In this paper, motivated by the similarities between power system differential algebraic equations and the forward calculation flows of recurrent neural networks (RNNs), a long short-term memory (LSTM) RNN-based equivalent model is proposed to accurately represent the ADNs. First, the adoption reasons of the proposed LSTM RNN-based equivalent model are explained, and its advantages are analyzed from the mathematical point of view. Then, the accuracy and generalization performance of the proposed model is evaluated using the IEEE 39-Bus New England system integrated with ADNs in the study cases. Here, it reveals that the proposed LSTM RNN-based equivalent model has a generalization capability to capture the dynamic behaviors of ADNs with high accuracy.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Novel Machine Learning Method for Surface PM2.5 Estimations from Geostationary Satellites

Particulate matter (PM) with a diameter of less or equal to 2.5 μm, known as PM , affects human health as it penetrates the respiratory system. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) measures the atmospheric concentration of PM using air quality monitors stationed throughout the Continental United States (CONUS). Such measurements are points on a spatial domain and therefore, might not be representative of the air quality at nearby areas considering that the composition of the atmosphere is highly variable from place to place. Satellite based AOD permits a spatially uniform means of estimating PM and new geostationary satellites provide high temporal and spatial resolution estimation of AOD. However, the concentration of PM is non-linearly dependent on other atmospheric parameters that include relative humidity, temperature, and height of the planetary boundary layer. This information may be estimated at similar spatial and temporal resolutions as AOD from numerical modeling such as from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model which resolves near real-time atmospheric conditions over the CONUS. The estimation of PM concentration is a multi-parametric problem that considers the effect of temporal dependencies among the different parameters. Deep learning approaches are appropriate for such complex estimation problems as they intrinsically capture relations among multiple non-linear parameters. This study compares deep-learning methods to traditional regression analysis to demonstrate the capabilities of these methods in predicting PM2.5 concentrations. Additionally, a novel ensemble learning approach is employed to identify scientific processes that could further improve the estimation of PM concentration. Utilizing Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, which are suitable for multivariate time series estimation problems as they are capable of learning long-term dependencies, individual models are created for each EPA station and trained on the aforementioned dataset collocated over each station. Individual station models are merged if the model's performance is improved by reducing the root mean squared error (RMSE) metric. This ensemble training method ultimately reduces the RMSE value. Evaluation of these results provide insights into physical processes and related observable parameters that may contribute to PM concentrations. Identified parameters evaluated to be statistically different between the merged and unmerged models are expected to improve overall performance. These new parameters are then utilized for reevaluation of the deep learning methods with an extreme gradient boosting model with an RMSE of 5.5 providing the best results.

George Priftis↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the Potential and Challenges of an Uncertainty Quantification Method for Long Short–Term Memory Models for Soil Moisture Predictions

Recently, recurrent deep networks have shown promise to harness newly available satellite–sensed data for long–term soil moisture projections. However, to be useful in forecasting, deep networks must also provide uncertainty estimates. Here we evaluated Monte Carlo dropout with an input–dependent data noise term (MCD+N), an efficient uncertainty estimation framework originally developed in computer vision, for hydrologic time series predictions. MCD+N simultaneously estimates a heteroscedastic input–dependent data noise term (a trained error model attributable to observational noise) and a network weight uncertainty term (attributable to insufficiently constrained model parameters). Although MCD+N has appealing features, many heuristic approximations were employed during its derivation, and rigorous evaluations and evidence of its asserted capability to detect dissimilarity were lacking. To address this, we provided an in–depth evaluation of the scheme's potential and limitations. We showed that for reproducing soil moisture dynamics recorded by the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, MCD+N indeed gave a good estimate of predictive error, provided that we tuned a hyperparameter and used a representative training data set. The input–dependent term responded strongly to observational noise, while the model term clearly acted as a detector for physiographic dissimilarity from the training data, behaving as intended. However, when the training and test data were characteristically different, the input–dependent term could be misled, undermining its reliability. Additionally, due to the data–driven nature of the model, data noise also influences network weight uncertainty, and therefore the two uncertainty terms are correlated. Altogether, this approach has promise, but care is needed to interpret the results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Power generation forecasting for solar plants based on Dynamic Bayesian networks by fusing multi-source information

A Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model for solar power generation forecasting in solar plants is proposed in this paper. The key idea is to fuse sensor data, operational indicators, meteorological data, lagged output power information, and model errors for more accurate short-term (e.g., hours) and mid-term (e.g., days to weeks) power generation forecasting. The proposed DBN augments automated data-driven structure learning with expert knowledge encoding using continuous and categorical data given constraints to represent causal relationships within a solar inverter system. Additionally, an error compensation mechanism is proposed to capture temporal fluctuation. The effectiveness of the DBN on solar power generation forecasting was evaluated by rolling window analysis with one-year testing data collected from a local solar plant. The proposed DBN is compared with four state-of-art methods including support-vector regression (SVR), k-nearest neighbors (kNN), artificial neural network (ANN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) models. The result show that the proposed DBN achieves better accuracy in general, and it is not as data-hungry as some neural network-based models. The proposed DBN is also shown to have robust and consistent forecasting power with different forecasting horizons. The accuracy is 92% - 95% from one hour to one week ahead forecasting.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Imputation of urban environmental sensor data using gated attention bidirectional long short-term memory (GA-BiLSTM): methods, performance, and implications

Urban environmental monitoring networks frequently encounter significant data gaps due to sensor malfunctions, environmental disturbances, and communication failures. Reliable approaches to address these gaps are essential for ensuring the continuity and quality of environmental data streams. In this study, we developed a gated attention bidirectional long short-term memory (GA-BiLSTM) model to impute missing data in a dense urban monitoring network. Using observations from the CROCUS network in Chicago, we evaluated GA-BiLSTM against widely used approaches (XGBoost and K-nearest neighbors) under scenarios of both short-term intermittent gaps and prolonged outages. GA-BiLSTM consistently outperformed comparative methods, particularly during extended outages of up to ten days, demonstrating its ability to capture spatiotemporal dependencies across sensor nodes. Beyond performance metrics, feature importance and spatial network analyses highlighted the unexpected but critical predictive role of peripheral rural nodes, underlining their strategic value for maintaining robust urban monitoring systems. These results emphasize that advanced imputation methods can substantially improve the reliability of environmental monitoring networks and support more resilient data infrastructures for urban sustainability.

Data imputation↗
DOE OSTI2021

Model fusion with physics-guided machine learning: Projection-based reduced-order modeling

The unprecedented amount of data generated from experiments, field observations, and large-scale numerical simulations at a wide range of spatiotemporal scales has enabled the rapid advancement of data-driven and especially deep learning models in the field of fluid mechanics. Although these methods are proven successful for many applications, there is a grand challenge of improving their generalizability. This is particularly essential when data-driven models are employed within outer-loop applications like optimization. In this work, we put forth a physics-guided machine learning (PGML) framework that leverages the interpretable physics-based model with a deep learning model. Leveraging a concatenated neural network design from multi-modal data sources, the PGML framework is capable of enhancing the generalizability of data-driven models and effectively protects against or inform about the inaccurate predictions resulting from extrapolation. We apply the PGML framework as a novel model fusion approach combining the physics-based Galerkin projection model and long- to short-term memory (LSTM) network for parametric model order reduction of fluid flows. We demonstrate the improved generalizability of the PGML framework against a purely data-driven approach through the injection of physics features into intermediate LSTM layers. Our quantitative analysis shows that the overall model uncertainty can be reduced through the PGML approach, especially for test data coming from a distribution different than the training data. Moreover, we demonstrate that our approach can be used as an inverse diagnostic tool providing a confidence score associated with models and observations. The proposed framework also allows for multi-fidelity computing by making use of low-fidelity models in the online deployment of quantified data-driven models.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning modeling and model predictive control of a closed-circuit reverse osmosis system

Closed-circuit reverse osmosis (CCRO) offers a flexible and energy-efficient alternative to conventional reverse osmosis by operating in a semi-batch mode that recycles brine, enabling higher recovery rates and reduced specific energy consumption (SEC). However, developing accurate, system-level dynamic models for CCRO remains challenging due to its nonlinear, multi-phase operation and sensitivity to variable feed water conditions. Traditional modeling approaches, such as NARMAX (nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs), often struggle to generalize across varying inlet feed concentrations, necessitating frequent parameter re-estimation and limiting their utility for real-time control applications. To address these limitations, we developed a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model trained on an extensive experimental data set from a CCRO pilot plant. The model accepts three inputs, feed flow rate, recirculation flow rate, and initial feed conductivity, and predicts three key outputs: reject conductivity, feed pump power draw, and recirculation pump power draw. We validated the LSTM model against experimental data, demonstrating its ability to distinguish between different feed conductivities and adapt to variable flow rates. Subsequently, we incorporated the LSTM model within a nonlinear model predictive control (MPC) scheme and conducted closed-loop simulations to optimize the integrated SEC (iSEC). In conclusion, the results project up to a 6% reduction in iSEC by using MPC to optimize performance over the entire experiment duration, without requiring any random excitation for data collection or parameter re-estimation.

Desalination↗
DOE OSTI2021

Real-Time and Adaptive Reservoir Computing With Application to Profile Prediction in Fusion Plasma

Nuclear fusion is a promising alternative to address the problem of sustainable energy production. The tokamak is an approach to fusion based on magnetic plasma confinement, constituting a complex physical system with many control challenges. Here we study the characteristics and optimization of reservoir computing (RC) for real-time and adaptive prediction of plasma profiles in the DIII-D tokamak. Our experiments demonstrate that RC achieves comparable results to state-of-the-art (deep) convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and long short-term memory (LSTM) models, with a significantly easier and faster training procedure. This efficient approach allows for fast and frequent adaptation of the model to new situations, such as changing plasma conditions or different fusion devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Real-Time Movement-Based Traffic Volume Prediction at Signalized Intersections

The traffic volume of each movement at signalized intersections can provide valuable information on real-time traffic conditions that enable traffic control systems to dynamically respond to the fluctuated traffic demands. Real-time movement-based traffic volume prediction is challenging due to various nonlinear spatial relationships at different locations/approaches and the complicated underlying temporal dependencies. In this study, a novel deep intersection spatial-temporal network (DISTN) is developed for real-time movement-based traffic volume prediction at signalized intersections, which considers both spatial and temporal features by the convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM), respectively. In addition, the within-day, daily, and weekly periodic trends of traffic volume are also considered in the proposed model. This is the first time that a deep-learning method has been applied for movement-based traffic volume prediction at signalized intersections. In the numerical experiment, the proposed model is evaluated using real-world data and simulation data to demonstrate its effectiveness. The impacts of various structures of traffic networks on the proposed model are also discussed. Results show that the proposed model outperforms some of the state-of-the-art volume prediction methods currently in the literature.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Long short-term memory embedded nudging schemes for nonlinear data assimilation of geophysical flows

Reduced rank nonlinear filters are increasingly utilized in data assimilation of geophysical flows, but often require a set of ensemble forward simulations to estimate forecast covariance. On the other hand, predictor-corrector type nudging approaches are still attractive due to their simplicity of implementation when more complex methods need to be avoided. However, optimal estimate of nudging gain matrix might be cumbersome. In this paper, we put forth a fully nonintrusive recurrent neural network approach based on a long short-term memory (LSTM) embedding architecture to estimate the nudging term, which plays a role not only to force the state trajectories to the observations but also acts as a stabilizer. Furthermore, our approach relies on the power of archival data and the trained model can be retrained effectively due to power of transfer learning in any neural network applications. In order to verify the feasibility of the proposed approach, we perform twin experiments using Lorenz 96 system. Our results demonstrate that the proposed LSTM nudging approach yields more accurate estimates than both extended Kalman filter (EKF) and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) when only sparse observations are available. With the availability of emerging AI-friendly and modular hardware technologies and heterogeneous computing platforms, we articulate that our simplistic nudging framework turns out to be computationally more efficient than either the EKF or EnKF approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Variational data augmentation for a learning-based granular predictive model of power outages

As the trend in climate change continues, extreme weather events are expected to occur with increasing frequency and severity and pose a significant threat to the electric power infrastructure. Regardless of the efforts a utility puts towards hardening the grid, storm-induced damage to the utility assets such as cables and distributed energy resources (DERs) that are particularly vulnerable to such events is unavoidable. Access to a highly granular, in space and time, outage forecasting tool with long lead times (i.e., days ahead) will enhance the efficiency of service restoration efforts. Here, in this study, we propose to develop and implement a multi-model framework as an operational tool based on a granular and multi-day outage forecasting model using operational numerical weather prediction model forecasts and detailed component outage information. An innovative two-layered recurrent neural network, i.e., a long-short-term-memory (LSTM)-based variational autoencoder (VAE) framework and a sliding window are used to address the uneven distribution of different types of weather events and make better use of the time-series data. Case studies are performed to demonstrate the performance of the new framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep-Learning based Reconstruction of the Shower Maximum $X_{\mathrm{max}}$ using the Water-Cherenkov Detectors of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The atmospheric depth of the air shower maximum X max is an observable commonly used for the determination of the nuclear mass composition of ultra-high energy cosmic rays. Direct measurements of X max are performed using observations of the longitudinal shower development with fluorescence telescopes. At the same time, several methods have been proposed for an indirect estimation of X max from the characteristics of the shower particles registered with surface detector arrays. In this paper, we present a deep neural network (DNN) for the estimation of X max . The reconstruction relies on the signals induced by shower particles in the ground based water-Cherenkov detectors of the Pierre Auger Observatory. The network architecture features recurrent long short-term memory layers to process the temporal structure of signals and hexagonal convolutions to exploit the symmetry of the surface detector array. We evaluate the performance of the network using air showers simulated with three different hadronic interaction models. Thereafter, we account for long-term detector effects and calibrate the reconstructed X max using fluorescence measurements. Finally, we show that the event-by-event resolution in the reconstruction of the shower maximum improves with increasing shower energy and reaches less than 25 g/cm 2 at energies above 2 × 10 19 eV.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reduced Order Model of Transactive Bidding Loads

Transactive energy (TE) has been identified to provide better grid efficiency and reliability by market-based transactive exchanges between energy producers and energy consumers. Simulations of TE systems are crucial to evaluate the benefits and impacts of different transactive mechanisms. However, such simulations can be time consuming due to the information exchange between various participants and complex co-simulation environments. In this paper, we develop a reduced order model to speed up the simulation of transactive systems in TE simulation platform (TESP) while achieving very low error between the reduced order and full model results. Specifically, the developed reduced order model consists of an aggregate responsive load agent which utilizes two Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) with Long Short-Term Memory units (LSTMs) to enable transactive elements to collectively participate in the TE system. The proposed aggregate responsive load (ARL) agent is able to produce similar transactive behaviors to the full simulation model while achieving significant simulation time reduction. Finally, we also show that the developed model enables generalization of simulation results across different dates and across different number of loads included in the simulations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗