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DOE OSTI2022

Alaska Ocean Cluster (Final CTAP2.0 Report)

Sandia provided technical assistance to the Alaska Ocean Cluster to assess potential market opportunities regarding byproducts of crab in the greater Alaska region. Crab contains a wide variety of proteins, chitin, lipids, minerals, and pigments. Currently, only a small portion of these components are utilized, primarily proteins associated with crab meat. Sandia provided an assessment of the current market landscape and opportunities related to crab byproducts including market size and applications. Sandia subject matter experts conducted an analysis and provide the Alaska Ocean Cluster team with a report describing the state of research and market opportunities offered by Alaska crab byproducts. The final report focused on market opportunities regarding chitosan production, chitin extraction, as well as an overview of the key market players and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

U.S. ESCO Industry: Industry Size and Recent Market Trends

This study is the latest in a series of LBNL research into U.S. ESCO industry characteristics and market trends. The research is based on interviews with ESCO industry executives conducted during the fall of 2019 and the first half of 2020. Nearly all companies that identified themselves as ESCOs were contacted as part of this project. We find that after a period of little growth (2011-2014), industry revenues reached an estimated $6 billion in 2018, or a 3.4% annual average growth rate from 2015-2018. ESCOs primarily serve the public an institutional sectors (e.g., federal, state, and local governments; university and colleges; and K-12 schools). In 2018, project investments by public and institutional organizations accounted for over 90% of industry revenue, which is consistent with previous industry studies. ESCO activity in the Middle Atlantic, East North Central, and Pacific regions in the U.S. delivered the highest share of revenue in 2018, which is also consistent with earlier research. ESCOs reported that a majority of their customers use energy savings performance contracts (ESPCs) primarily for facility capital improvement needs and resilience rather than utility savings. In addition, the importance of non-energy benefits (e.g., water savings, avoided operations and maintenance costs, and avoided capital costs) accounted for in the project savings guarantee reportedly increased in all markets during 2016-2018 compared to previous time periods. The study found that the ESCO industry faces several key challenges, including: (1) increasing project development times due to more complex projects and other factors; (2) difficulty finding qualified subcontractors in some regions, including minority- women- and disadvantaged population-owned small business enterprises; and (3) difficulty accessing project documents and quickly fulfilling customer requests to justify project payments several years into the performance period of a project.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Evolving Solar Energy Innovation Ecosystem in Puerto Rico

This report presents initial findings from the research project, “Developing socially and economically generative, resilient PV-energy systems for low- and moderate-income communities: Applications for Puerto Rico.” This material is based upon work supported primarily by the US Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy under the Solar Energy Technology Office Fiscal Year 2018 Funding Program award number DE-EE0008570 and in part by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the Department of Energy (DOE) under NSF CA No. EEC-1041895. This project is a joint effort of Arizona State University’s Center for Energy and Society; the University of Puerto Rico-Mayaguez’s Center for Hemispheric Cooperation in Research and Education in Engineering and Applied Science, Sustainable Energy Center, and National Institute for Energy and Island Sustainability; and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The project seeks to understand the place of energy in low-income communities in Puerto Rico, the opportunities for solar energy to provide solutions to the energy challenges facing these communities, and the capacity of the solar energy innovation ecosystem in Puerto Rico to deliver relevant solar solutions for these communities. We define the solar energy innovation ecosystem as the diverse actors and stakeholders whose collective networks and actions—and the flows among them of ideas, knowledge, data, influence, money, and equipment, as well as the rules that govern those flows—are essential to the success of renewable energy markets and projects. This report presents results from the first year of the project’s research, which has concentrated on several key goals: (1) characterizing the trajectory of solar energy development in Puerto Rico in the three years since Hurricane María; (2) mapping and characterizing the current solar energy innovation ecosystem in Puerto Rico, including the technical potential for solar energy in Puerto Rico, and the business and policy landscape shaping solar developments; and (3) beginning to characterize the broad landscape of community energy initiatives underway in Puerto Rico. To pursue these goals, we engaged in a systematic review of solar energy developments in Puerto Rico and conducted interviews with over 100 members of the solar energy innovation, including policy, business, finance, research, and civil society leaders, as well as solar users. Solar technical potential data for Puerto Rico was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and is publicly available at: https://data.nrel.gov/submissions/144. The documentation for the NREL dataset is included as Appendix A.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Exceptional subgenome stability and functional divergence in the allotetraploid Ethiopian cereal teff

Teff (Eragrostis tef) is a cornerstone of food security in the Horn of Africa, where it is prized for stress resilience, grain nutrition, and market value. Here, we report a chromosome-scale assembly of allotetraploid teff (variety Dabbi) and patterns of subgenome dynamics. The teff genome contains two complete sets of homoeologous chromosomes, with most genes maintaining as syntenic gene pairs. TE analysis allows us to estimate that the teff polyploidy event occurred ~1.1 million years ago (mya) and that the two subgenomes diverged ~5.0 mya. Despite this divergence, we detect no large-scale structural rearrangements, homoeologous exchanges, or biased gene loss, in contrast to many other allopolyploids. The two teff subgenomes have partitioned their ancestral functions based on divergent expression across a diverse expression atlas. Together, these genomic resources will be useful for accelerating breeding of this underutilized grain crop and for fundamental insights into polyploid genome evolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A novel framework for increasing research transparency: Exploring the connection between diversity and innovation

A split sample/dual method research protocol is demonstrated to increase transparency while reducing the probability of false discovery. We apply the protocol to examine whether diversity in ownership teams increases or decreases the likelihood of a firm reporting a novel innovation using data from the 2018 United States Census Bureau’s Annual Business Survey. Transparency is increased in three ways: 1) all specification testing and identifying potentially productive models is done in an exploratory subsample that 2) preserves the validity of hypothesis test statistics fromde novoestimation in the holdout confirmatory sample with 3) all findings publicly documented in an earlier registered report and in this journal publication. Bayesian estimation procedures that leverage information from the exploratory stage included in the confirmatory stage estimation replace traditional frequentist null hypothesis significance testing. In addition to increasing statistical power by using information from the full sample, Bayesian methods directly estimate a probability distribution for the magnitude of an effect, allowing much richer inference. Estimated magnitudes of diversity along academic discipline, race, ethnicity, and foreign-born status dimensions are positively associated with innovation. A maximally diverse ownership team on these dimensions would be roughly six times more likely to report new-to-market innovation than a homophilic team.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2022

GeoRePORT Protocol Volume V: International Socioeconomic Assessment Tool

The GeoRePORT International Socioeconomic Assessment Tool provides guidance on how to complete the GeoRePORT Excel-based input spreadsheet. The GeoRePORT Socioeconomic Assessment Tool is designed to report land access, permitting, market, and transmission favorability for geothermal projects.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Assessment of Light-Duty Plug-in Electric Vehicles in the United States, 2010 – 2021

The number of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) sold in the United States has consistently grown since 2010, reaching 4% of the light-duty vehicle market in 2021. This report examines how the characteristics for these PEVs has changed over this decade, evaluating range, energy efficiency, costs, and performance. Given the vehicle characteristics, this report estimates miles driven, electricity consumption, petroleum reduction, and greenhouse gas emissions attributable to electric vehicles. This report also explores vehicle manufacturing and battery production, considering supply chains from battery cells to assembly. Over 2.1 million PEVs have been sold in the United States through December 2021, with 1.3 million of these all fully-electric battery electric vehicles (BEV), and 800,000 plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) which have the capability of using gasoline. The sales-weighted average range for BEVs reached 290 miles in 2021 and 28 miles for PHEVs. We estimate that electric vehicles have driven 68 billion miles on electricity since 2010, thereby reducing national gasoline consumption by 0.54% in 2021 and 2.5 billion gallons cumulatively through 2021. In 2021, PEVs used 6.1 terawatt-hours of electricity to drive 19.1 billion miles, offsetting 700 million gallons of gasoline. We find that this fuel switching reduced consumer fuel costs by $1.3 billion in 2021. Since 2010, 65% of PEVs sold in the United States have been assembled domestically, and over 110 gigawatt-hours of lithium-ion batteries have been installed in vehicles to date.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bottom-Up Costs and Market Analysis of the Horizontal Ribbon Growth (HRG) Technology (Final Report)

The American-Made Solar Prize is a prize competition from the U.S. Department of Energy that is designed to revitalize U.S. solar manufacturing. The competition aims to support the growth of U.S. solar manufacturing and reenergize American energy innovation by tapping into American's competitive spirit and the nation's unparalleled innovation ecosystem leveraging national labs, incubators, facilities and more. National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) will provide technical and business advisement to the noted Solar Prize finalists. This CRADA will involve the development of a cost model of the CRADA Participant's horizontal ribbon growth (HRG) technology for making silicon wafers for solar cells.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Connected Thermostat Alternatives for Room Air Conditioners and Minisplit Heat Pumps

The availability of smart, connected thermostats has improved climate control, energy efficiency, and grid demand-response programs for central HVAC systems. However, a significant gap exists in addressing integrated control systems for point-source heating and cooling systems such as window air-conditioners (window ACs) and mini-split heat pumps (MSHPs). This report examines the emerging market of third-party connected thermostats tailored for these systems, focusing on their effectiveness, reliability, and potential barriers to adoption.This study evaluates several commercially available products designed for room ACs and MSHPs through a series of laboratory tests. While these infrared-based (IR-based) thermostats offer remote temperature control and scheduling via mobile apps, our findings reveal that none are seamless, with reliability of basic functions being a critical factor. Promising features include integration of indoor air quality metrics and time-of-use pricing, but the latter are not yet available in the U.S. Barriers to broad user acceptance include non-seamless setup processes, challenges in thermostat placement, and unclear product differentiation. There is a pressing need for research and development in enabling MSHPs and central thermostats to coordinate, enhancing energy savings and comfort in retrofit applications. This study underscores the importance of further innovation in connected thermostat technology to address the diverse needs of single-zone HVAC systems and promote efficient energy management in households.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmarks, With Minimum Sustainable Price Analysis: Q1 2023

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) aims to accelerate the advancement and deployment of solar technology in support of an equitable transition to a decarbonized economy no later than 2050, starting with a decarbonized power sector by 2035. Its approach to achieving this goal includes driving innovations in technology, hardware, and soft cost reductions to make solar affordable and accessible for all. As part of this effort, SETO must track solar cost trends so it can focus its research and development (R&D) on the highest-impact activities. The benchmarks in this report are bottom-up cost estimates of all major inputs to PV and energy storage system installations. Bottom-up costs are based on national averages and do not necessarily represent typical costs in all local markets. Like last year's report, this year's report includes two distinct sets of benchmarks: minimum sustainable price (MSP) benchmarks and modeled market price (MMP) benchmarks. MSP benchmarks can be interpreted as the minimum price a company needs to charge to remain financially solvent in the long term based on the minimum sustainable prices of all inputs including minimum sustainable profit margins. MMP benchmarks can be interpreted as the actual cash sales price a company charges in the given benchmark period. These simplified estimates are useful for tracking technological progress, but they do not reflect all experiences. In fact, no individual estimate under any approach can reflect the diversity of the PV and storage manufacturing and installation industries. Our residential MMP benchmark ($2.90 per watt direct current [Wdc]) is 24% higher than the MSP benchmark ($2.34/Wdc) and 9% lower than our MMP benchmark ($3.18/Wdc) from Q1 2022 in 2022 U.S. dollars (USD). For community solar, our MMP benchmark ($1.75/Wdc) is 18% higher than our MSP benchmark ($1.49/Wdc). Our Q1 2022 benchmark report has no community solar system for comparison. For utility-scale systems with one-axis tracking, our MMP benchmark ($1.17/Wdc) is 22% higher than our MSP benchmark ($0.96/Wdc) and 10% higher than its counterpart ($1.07/Wdc) in Q1 2022 in 2022 USD.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Markets and Economics for Thermal Power Extraction from Nuclear Power Plants Aiding the Decarbonization of Industrial Processes

This report analyzes the domestic industrial heat markets which may be plausible for using heat extracted from existing LWRs, contributing to the decarbonization of industry. It conceptualizes ideas for a future energy park centered around an LWR with various participating synergistic industries with extensive heat and material integrations with the LWR. It also presents comparison calculations for energy storage options and the levelized cost of heat from an LWR versus the levelized cost of heat from a conventional natural gas boiler and shows under what circumstances heat from LWRs is competitive with and beats natural gas.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Integrating Hydrogen Production and Electricity Markets: Analytical Insights from California

This report compares the cost of different pathways for producing hydrogen in California. In addition to capturing the current cost of electrolyzers and other equipment, the pathways apply current retail electricity tariff options offered by utilities Southern California Edison (SCE), Pacific Gas & Electric Company (PG&E), and San Diego Gas & Electric Company (SDG&E). The analysis also tests the cost of combining hydrogen production with utility-scale wind or solar generation in California. Scenarios examine current costs as well as projections for 2030. The cost benchmark - a relatively low electrolytic hydrogen production cost - is based on the wholesale price of electricity used by a theoretical hydrogen production plant connected directly to the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) transmission system. California law currently prohibits this approach in CAISO, but it is permissible in other organized wholesale electricity markets. The cost for producing hydrogen under 2019 conditions in this theoretical case was approximately $3/kg. Different scenarios are used to examine current costs, e.g., 2019, as well as projections for 2030.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2023

Q1 2023 U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmarks With Minimum Sustainable Price Analysis Data File

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Status and Trends in the U.S. Voluntary Green Power Market: 2022 Data

Voluntary green power, for the purposes of this report, refers to renewable energy procurement by retail electricity customers above what is otherwise provided by load-serving entities. This report is part of an annual series of reports synthesizing trends in the United States voluntary green power market. In 2022, about 9.6 million retail electricity customers procured about 272 million megawatt-hours (MWh) of voluntary green power, representing about 38% of non-hydro renewable energy sales and about 6% of all U.S. retail electricity sales. Most of the remainder of U.S. renewable energy sales reflects renewable energy procured by load-serving entities to comply with state renewable energy mandates, also known as compliance-based procurement.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Future of Energy Efficiency in Buildings: Drivers and Market Expectations [Slides]

This slide-deck report identifies drivers of energy efficiency in buildings over the next 10 years, for all fuels. The report also provides insights on what the future of efficiency may look like in that time period and considers other distributed energy resources, as well as decarbonization and demand flexibility, to the extent they are intertwined with efficiency activities. Understanding market drivers and possible future market attributes for energy efficiency can help policy makers, regulators and industry make informed decisions—for example, how best to design policies and investments to support desired outcomes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Tunisia Air Conditioner Market Assessment

Air conditioners contribute significantly to peak power demand during Tunisia's hot summers. In 2021, the Tunisian Electricity and Gas Company (STEG) recorded a peak demand of 4,472 megawatts in August, estimating that 44% of that demand was due to the operation of air conditioners. The Tunisian government, through its Agence Nationale pour la Maitrise de L'Energie (ANME) and all of its partners, is called on to take advantage of the significant potential for energy efficiency and to achieve the objectives it has set for itself by accelerating the implementation of programs that expand the adoption of efficient appliances, including air conditioners. This report aims to assess the Tunisian market for air conditioners, particularly in terms of energy performance. The report provides an overview of the size and characteristics of the AC market in Tunisia, including product types, origins, and proportion of imports to locally manufactured units; an estimation of the informal market; energy performance; and price.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Status and Trends in the U.S. Voluntary Green Power Market (2021 Data)

Voluntary green power, for the purposes of this report, refers to renewable energy procurement by retail electricity customers above state renewable energy mandates. In this report, we present data and key trends for voluntary green power markets, except for a small portion of voluntary purchasing where no data are available. In 2021, about 8 million retail electricity customers procured about 244 million megawatt-hours (MWh) of voluntary green power (Figure ES-1), representing about 27% of all U.S. renewable energy sales, about 39% of non-hydro renewable energy sales, and about 6% of all U.S. retail electricity sales. Most of the remainder of U.S. renewable energy sales reflects renewable energy procured by load-serving entities to comply with state renewable energy mandates, also known as compliance-based procurement.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Gallium Oxide Techno-Economic Analysis for the Wide Bandgap Semiconductor Market

More than 30% of electrical energy passes through power electronics today with speculation that in the next decade this could grow to 80%. The wide bandgap semiconductor market is already approaching $1 billon USD in 2019 and is projected to be almost $7 billion USD in 2028. Even with its high cost, SiC, is starting to dislodge the incumbent Si technology in some applications, such as hybrid and electric vehicles, due to smaller size, and higher efficiency. We review and report the IHS Markit’s market predictions for wide bandgap semiconductor technologies, and highlight the technoeconomic analysis results for the manufacturing cost of Ga2O3 wafers. Specifically, we focus on the potential for Ga2O3 to be more economically advantageous than SiC using current manufacturing methods and then identify opportunities where research can further reduce the volume cost of Ga2O3 wafers.

28 EE - Advanced Manufacturing Office (EE-5A)↗