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At least 163 records · Page 9

Improving the Accuracy of Lunar Laser Ranging Tests of Gravitational Theory: Modeling and Future Directions

Accurate analysis of precision ranges to the Moon have provided several tests of gravitational theory: the equivalence principle, geodetic precession, PPN parameters beta and gamma, and the constancy of the gravitational constant G. Other possible tests include the inverse square law at 20,000 km length scales and the PPN parameter 1. The uncertainties of these tests have decreased as data accuracies have improved and data time span has lengthened. We are exploring the modeling improvements necessary to proceed from cm to mm range accuracies. Looking to future exploration, what characteristics are desired for the next generation of ranging devices, what fundamental questions can be investigated, and what are the challenges for modeling and data analysis?

Williams, James G.↗

Bayesian Analysis for Risk Assessment of Selected Medical Events in Support of the Integrated Medical Model Effort

The Exploration Medical Capability project is creating a catalog of risk assessments using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is a software-based system intended to assist mission planners in preparing for spaceflight missions by helping them to make informed decisions about medical preparations and supplies needed for combating and treating various medical events using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The objective is to use statistical analyses to inform the IMM decision tool with estimated probabilities of medical events occurring during an exploration mission. Because data regarding astronaut health are limited, Bayesian statistical analysis is used. Bayesian inference combines prior knowledge, such as data from the general U.S. population, the U.S. Submarine Force, or the analog astronaut population located at the NASA Johnson Space Center, with observed data for the medical condition of interest. The posterior results reflect the best evidence for specific medical events occurring in flight. Bayes theorem provides a formal mechanism for combining available observed data with data from similar studies to support the quantification process. The IMM team performed Bayesian updates on the following medical events: angina, appendicitis, atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, dental abscess, dental caries, dental periodontal disease, gallstone disease, herpes zoster, renal stones, seizure, and stroke.

Gilkey, Kelly M.↗

Modified Rosenthal Solution for Prediction of In Situ Alloyed GRCop-42 Melt Pool

Literature suggests that the energy needed to in-situ alloy material via additive manufacturing is higher per unit volume than their pre-alloyed counterparts, often despite the in-situ formation of thermodynamically favorable phases. This work, via experiments on in-situ alloyed GRCop-42 (Cu-4 at% Cr-2 at% Nb), will explore the energy needs of an elemental powder blend during in-situ alloying via laser powder bed fusion (LPBF). Empirically derived models will explore the influence of elemental thermophysical properties, net energy of in-situ reactions, and powder characteristics on the resulting LPBF energy demands, weld pool size and shape, and porosity evolution. Additionally, the influence of energy input during printing on the in-situ reaction to form Cr2Nb will be explored. Evolution of Cr2Nb dispersoid and copper grain shape, size, and texture can be related to the temperature reached, cooling rate, and time-as-melt during in-situ alloying via LPBF.

David Scannapieco↗

Influence of More Mechanistic Representation of Particle Dry Deposition on 1850–2000 Changes in Global Aerosol Burdens and Radiative Forcing

Robust estimates of historical changes in aerosols are key for accurate constraints on climate sensitivity. Dry deposition is a primary sink of aerosols from the atmosphere. However, most global climate models do not accurately represent observed strong dependencies of dry deposition following turbulent transport on aerosol size. It is unclear whether there is a substantial impact of mischaracterized aerosol deposition velocities on historical aerosol changes. Here we describe improved mechanistic representation of aerosol dry deposition in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global climate model, ModelE, and illustrate the impact on 1850–2000 changes in global aerosol burdens as well as aerosol direct and cloud albedo effects using a set of 1850 and 2000 time slice simulations. We employ two aerosol configurations of ModelE (a “bulk” mass-based configuration and a configuration that more explicitly represents aerosol size distributions, internal mixing, and microphysics) to explore how model structural differences in aerosol representation alter the response to representation of dry deposition. Both configurations show larger historical increases in the global burdens of non-dust aerosols with the new dry deposition scheme, by 11% in the simpler mass-based configuration and 23% in the more complex microphysical configuration. Historical radiative forcing responses, which vary in magnitude from 5% to 12% as well as sign, depend on the aerosol configuration.

aerosol↗

Primordial nucleosynthesis and the abundances of beryllium and boron

The recently attained ability to make measurements of Be and B as well as to put constraints on Li-6 abundances in metal-poor stars has led to a detailed reexamination of big bang nucleosynthesis in the A is greater than about 6 regime. The nuclear reaction network has been significantly expanded, with many new rates added. It is demonstrated that although a number of A is greater than 7 reaction rates are poorly determined, even with extreme values chosen, the standard homogeneous model is unable to produce significant yields above A = 7, and the (Li-7)/(Li-6) ratio always exceeds 500. We also preliminarily explore inhomogeneous models, such as those inspired by a first-order quark-hadron phase transition, where regions with high neutron/proton ratios can allow some leakage up to A is greater than 7. However, models that fit the A is not greater than 7 abundances still seem to have difficulty in obtaining significant A is greater than 7 yields.

Thomas, David↗

Wind tunnel testing and research

The topics covered include the following: a test of a Space Shuttle model with various base enhancements intended to help reduce the drag of the Shuttle in the landing configuration; further tests conducted using a Shuttle model to explore base drag improvement techniques; testing of parafoils having different airfoil shapes and line lengths; a study of ground effects on a Shuttle model; and three dimensional velocity profiles in the wake aft of the Space Shuttle were determined to study the effects of wake velocities on the Orbiter drag chute.

Nicks, Oran W.↗

A Review of Aerothermal Modeling for Mars Entry Missions

The current status of aerothermal analysis for Mars entry missions is reviewed. The aeroheating environment of all Mars missions to date has been dominated by convective heating. Two primary uncertainties in our ability to predict forebody convective heating are turbulence on a blunt lifting cone and surface catalysis in a predominantly CO2 environment. Future missions, particularly crewed vehicles, will encounter additional heating from shock-layer radiation due to a combination of larger size and faster entry velocity. Localized heating due to penetrations or other singularities on the aeroshell must also be taken into account. The physical models employed to predict these phenomena are reviewed, and key uncertainties or deficiencies inherent in these models are explored. Capabilities of existing ground test facilities to support aeroheating validation are also summarized. Engineering flight data from the Viking and Pathfinder missions, which may be useful for aerothermal model validation, are discussed, and an argument is presented for obtaining additional flight data. Examples are taken from past, present, and future Mars entry missions, including the twin Mars Exploration Rovers and the Mars Science Laboratory, scheduled for launch by NASA in 2011.

Wright, Michael J↗

Using XR for Improving Scientific Discovery With Numerical Weather Models

Our work explores the use of extended reality (XR) to im- prove scientific discovery with numerical weather/climate models that inform Earth science digital twins, specifically the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global atmospheric model. The overall project is named the Vi- sualization And Lagrangian dynamics Immersive eXtended Reality Toolkit (VALIXR), which has two main areas of focus: (1) enhancing the understanding of and interaction with model output data through advanced visualizations in the XR environment, and (2) the integration of Lagrangian dynamics into the GEOS model, which allows a natural, feature-specific analysis of Earth science phenomena as op- posed to traditional, fixed-point Eulerian dynamics. Here, we report initial work on these focus areas.

Thomas Grubb↗

Cirrus cloud properties derived from satellite radiances during FIRE

The sensitivity of the retrieved cloud properties to the cloud radiative transfer model is explored using satellite data taken during the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE). Several different scattering phase functions are used to create a set of models which relate cloud optical depth to bidirectional reflectance. These models are employed in the analysis of data taken nearly simultaneously from two different satellites over regions containing cirrus clouds. The interpretation of the reflectances using the various models is evaluated through intercomparisons of the results from both satellites and through comparisons with lidar data. The preliminary results indicate that, compared to water-droplet scattering models, ice-crystal scattering models provide a more precise and physically consistent interpretation of visible and infrared radiances for determining cirrus cloud properties.

Minnis, Patrick↗

Abundance gradients in cooling flow clusters: Ginga Large Area Counters and Einstein Solid State Spectrometer spectra of A496, A1795, A2142, and A2199

We analyze the Ginga Large Area Counters (LAC) and Einstein Solid State Spectrometer (SSS) spectra of four cooling flow clusters, A496, A1795, A2142, and A2199, each of which shows firm evidence of a relatively cool component. The inclusion of such cool spectral components in joint fits of SSS and LAC data leads to somewhat higher global temperatures than are derived from the high-energy LAC data alone. We find little evidence of cool emission outside the SSS field of view. Metal abundances appear to be centrally enhanced in all four clusters, with varying degrees of model dependence and statistical significance: the evidence is statistically strongest for A496 and A2142, somewhat weaker for A2199 and weakest for A1795. We also explore the model dependence in the amount of cold, X-ray-absorbing matter discovered in these clusters by White et al.

White, Raymond E., III↗

Modeling Bird Migration under Climate Change: A Mechanistic Approach

How will migrating birds respond to changes in the environment under climate change? What are the implications for migratory success under the various accelerated climate change scenarios as forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? How will reductions or increased variability in the number or quality of wetland stop-over sites affect migratory bird species? The answers to these questions have important ramifications for conservation biology and wildlife management. Here, we describe the use of continental scale simulation modeling to explore how spatio-temporal changes along migratory flyways affect en-route migration success. We use an individually based, biophysical, mechanistic, bird migration model to simulate the movement of shorebirds in North America as a tool to study how such factors as drought and wetland loss may impact migratory success and modify migration patterns. Our model is driven by remote sensing and climate data and incorporates important landscape variables. The energy budget components of the model include resting, foraging, and flight, but presently predation is ignored. Results/Conclusions We illustrate our model by studying the spring migration of sandpipers through the Great Plains to their Arctic breeding grounds. Why many species of shorebirds have shown significant declines remains a puzzle. Shorebirds are sensitive to stop-over quality and spacing because of their need for frequent refueling stops and their opportunistic feeding patterns. We predict bird "hydrographs that is, stop-over frequency with latitude, that are in agreement with the literature. Mean stop-over durations predicted from our model for nominal cases also are consistent with the limited, but available data. For the shorebird species simulated, our model predicts that shorebirds exhibit significant plasticity and are able to shift their migration patterns in response to changing drought conditions. However, the question remains as to whether this behavior can be maintained over increasing and sustained environmental change. Also, the problem is much more complex than described by the current processes captured in our model. We have taken some important and interesting steps, and our model does demonstrate how local scale information about individual stop-over sites can be linked into the migratory flyway as a whole. We are incorporating additional, species specific, mechanistic processes to better reflect different climate change scenarios

Smith, James A.↗

Model Based Engineering for Software Assurance

NASA's successful development of next generation space vehicles, habitats, and robotic systems will require reliable hardware and software systems. The aim of this initiative is to develop modeling methodology and tools to support Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) for software assurance and reliability analysis. This effort expands the Unified Modeling Language (UML) software design models to include fault data for the extraction of Failure Modes and Effects Criticality Analysis (FMECA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) for software. We explored different modeling approaches to integrate the UML software design models with the Systems Modeling Language (SysML) system models to generate an integrated model and reliability tools that take into account software and hardware interfaces.The benefits of this concept directly affect the safety community with quick turnarounds to produce software assurance and reliability analysis artifacts and the ability to visualize failure effects, both hardware and software. The result is enhanced system design integrity and early identification of system risks. This initiative will enable software assurance activities early in the system design lifecycle, facilitating the discovery of design weaknesses and enhancing the capability to produce safe, hazard-free systems

Wang, Lui↗

Comparing Proxy and Model Estimates of Hydroclimate Variability and Change over the Common Era

Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited because of a paucity of modern instrumental observations that are distributed unevenly across the globe and only span parts of the 20th and 21st centuries. Such data coverage is insufficient for characterizing hydroclimate and its associated dynamics because of its multidecadal to centennial variability and highly regionalized spatial signature. High-resolution (seasonal to decadal) hydroclimatic proxies that span all or parts of the Common Era (CE) and paleoclimate simulations from climate models are therefore important tools for augmenting our understanding of hydroclimate variability. In particular, the comparison of the two sources of information is critical for addressing the uncertainties and limitations of both while enriching each of their interpretations. We review the principal proxy data available for hydroclimatic reconstructions over the CE and highlight the contemporary understanding of how these proxies are interpreted as hydroclimate indicators. We also review the available last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models and discuss several outstanding challenges associated with simulating hydroclimate variability and change over the CE. A specific review of simulated hydroclimatic changes forced by volcanic events is provided, as is a discussion of expected improvements in estimated radiative forcings, models, and their implementation in the future. Our review of hydroclimatic proxies and last-millennium model simulations is used as the basis for articulating a variety of considerations and best practices for how to perform proxy-model comparisons of CE hydroclimate. This discussion provides a framework for how best to evaluate hydroclimate variability and its associated dynamics using these comparisons and how they can better inform interpretations of both proxy data and model simulations.We subsequently explore means of using proxy-model comparisons to better constrain and characterize future hydroclimate risks. This is explored specifically in the context of several examples that demonstrate how proxy-model comparisons can be used to quantitatively constrain future hydroclimatic risks as estimated from climate model projections.

Common Era↗

Characterization and Prediction of the SPI Background

The INTEGRAL Spectrometer, like most gamma-ray instruments, is background dominated. Signal-to-background ratios of a few percent are typical. The background is primarily due to interactions of cosmic rays in the instrument and spacecraft. It characteristically varies by +/- 5% on time scales of days. This variation is caused mainly by fluctuations in the interplanetary magnetic field that modulates the cosmic ray intensity. To achieve the maximum performance from SPI it is essential to have a high quality model of this background that can predict its value to a fraction of a percent. In this poster we characterize the background and its variability, explore various models, and evaluate the accuracy of their predictions.

Teegarden, B. J.↗

F-14 modeling study

This study explored application of a closed loop pilot/simulator model to the analysis of some simulator fidelity issues. The model was applied to two data bases: (1) a NASA ground based simulation of an air-to-air tracking task in which nonvisual cueing devices were explored, and (2) a ground based and inflight study performed by the Calspan Corporation to explore the effects of simulator delay on attitude tracking performance. The model predicted the major performance trends obtained in both studies. A combined analytical and experimental procedure for exploring simulator fidelity issues is outlined.

Levison, William H.↗

Investigations of Clouds and Aerosols on Mars, Venus and Titan

This final report was included as part of a new proposal. This new proposal was selected for funding on 9 Nov. 1999. For Titan our interest during the past few years was to explain the observed asymmetry in the albedo. We suggested earlier, from one-dimensional modeling studies, that vertical transport rates were comparable to particle fall speeds. Since heating of the upper atmosphere, which drives dynamical motions, is largely due to the aerosols, a nonlinear interaction between dynamics, radiative heating and particle microphysics is possible. We pursued this interaction in a two-dimensional model. We showed that the observed variations in the albedo between the two hemispheres and over an orbital cycle, could be due to dynamical motions suspending particles so that particle sizes and optical depths vary across the planet. In the Cassini time frame, future studies of this interaction between dynamics, radiation and microphysics may be worthwhile using, the strong modeling base that others, and we have developed. In our recently approved proposal, however, we plan to extend our modeling to hydrocarbon clouds that lie at lower levels. We know very little about such clouds, and numerical models for their properties are non-existent. These clouds may be observed by the Huygen's Probe, and by the Cassini orbiter, so predictions of their properties should help in the analysis of Cassini data. We have also developed a sophisticated model for the lower, condensational, clouds on Venus. In this model we explored the water vapor budget on Venus, and the properties of the clouds such as particle size distribution. During the past few years we have applied our model of the water ice clouds on Mars to new data sets from Pathfinder, and Mars Global Surveyor. We have compared our predictions of cloud properties with those seen by Pathfinder, and found reasonable agreement.

Toon, Owen B.↗

Modeling and Prediction of the Noise from Non-Axisymmetric Jets

The new source model was combined with the original sound propagation model developed for rectangular jets to produce a new version of the rectangular jet noise prediction code. This code was validated using a set of rectangular nozzles whose geometries were specified by NASA. Nozzles of aspect ratios two, four and eight were studied at jet exit Mach numbers of 0.5, 0.7 and 0.9, for a total of nine cases. Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solutions for these jets were provided to the contactor for use as input to the code. Quantitative comparisons of the predicted azimuthal and polar directivity of the acoustic spectrum were made with experimental data provided by NASA. The results of these comparisons, along with a documentation of the propagation and source models, were reported in a journal article publication (Ref. 4). The complete set of computer codes and computational modules that make up the prediction scheme, along with a user's guide describing their use and example test cases, was provided to NASA as a deliverable of this task. The use of conformal mapping, along with simplified modeling of the mean flow field, for noise propagation modeling was explored for other nozzle geometries, to support the task milestone of developing methods which are applicable to other geometries and flow conditions of interest to NASA. A model to represent twin round jets using this approach was formulated and implemented. A general approach to solving the equations governing sound propagation in a locally parallel nonaxisymmetric jet was developed and implemented, in aid of the tasks and milestones charged with selecting more exact numerical methods for modeling sound propagation, and developing methods that have application to other nozzle geometries. The method is based on expansion of both the mean-flowdependent coefficients in the governing equation and the Green's function in series of orthogonal functions. The method was coded and tested on two analytically prescribed mean flows which were meant to represent noise reduction concepts being considered by NASA. Testing (Ref. 5) showed that the method was feasible for the types of mean flows of interest in jet noise applications. Subsequently, this method was further developed to allow use of mean flow profiles obtained from a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) solution of the flow. Preliminary testing of the generalized code was among the last tasks completed under this contract. The stringent noise-reduction goals of NASA's Fundamental Aeronautics Program suggest that, in addition to potentially complex exhaust nozzle geometries, next generation aircraft will also involve tighter integration of the engine with the airframe. Therefore, noise generated and propagated by jet flows in the vicinity of solid surfaces is expected to be quite significant, and reduced-order noise prediction tools will be needed that can deal with such geometries. One important source of noise is that generated by the interaction of a turbulent jet with the edge of a solid surface (edge noise). Such noise is generated, for example, by the passing of the engine exhaust over a shielding surface, such as a wing. Work under this task supported an effort to develop a RANS-based prediction code for edge noise based on an extension of the classical Rapid Distortion Theory (RDT) to transversely sheared base flows (Refs. 6 and 7). The RDT-based theoretical analysis was applied to the generic problem of a turbulent jet interacting with the trailing edge of a flat plate. A code was written to evaluate the formula derived for the spectrum of the noise produced by this interaction and results were compared with data taken at NASA Glenn for a variety of jet/plate configurations and flow conditions (Ref. 8). A longer-term goal of this task was to work toward the development of a high-fidelity model of sound propagation in spatially developing non-axisymmetric jets using direct numerical methods for solving the relevant equations. Working with NASA Glenn Acoustics Branch personnel, numerical methods and boundary conditions appropriate for use in a high-resolution calculation of the full equations governing sound propagation in a steady base flow were identified. Computer codes were then written (by NASA) and tested (by OAI) for an increasingly complex set of flow conditions to validate the methods. The NASA-supplied codes were ported to the High-End Computing resources of the NASA Advanced Supercomputing facility for testing and validation against analytical (where possible) and independent numerical solutions. The cases which were completed during the course of this contract were solutions of the two-dimensional linearized Euler equations with no mean flow, a uniform mean flow and a nonuniform mean flow representative of a parallel flow jet.

Leib, Stewart J.↗

The Cosmic Ray Electron Excess

This slide presentation reviews the possible sources for the apparent excess of Cosmic Ray Electrons. The presentation reviews the Advanced Thin Ionization Calorimeter (ATIC) instrument, the various parts, how cosmic ray electrons are measured, and shows graphs that review the results of the ATIC instrument measurement. A review of Cosmic Ray Electrons models is explored, along with the source candidates. Scenarios for the excess are reviewed: Supernova remnants (SNR) Pulsar Wind nebulae, or Microquasars. Each of these has some problem that mitigates the argument. The last possibility discussed is Dark Matter. The Anti-Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics (PAMELA) mission is to search for evidence of annihilations of dark matter particles, to search for anti-nuclei, to test cosmic-ray propagation models, and to measure electron and positron spectra. There are slides explaining the results of Pamela and how to compare these with those of the ATIC experiment. Dark matter annihilation is then reviewed, which represent two types of dark matter: Neutralinos, and kaluza-Kline (KK) particles, which are next explained. The future astrophysical measurements, those from GLAST LAT, the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS), and HEPCAT are reviewed, in light of assisting in finding an explanation for the observed excess. Also the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) could help by revealing if there are extra dimensions.

Chang, J.↗