Modeling Streamflow Sensitivity to Climate Warming and Surface Water inputs in a Montane Catchment
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K E Hale↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Transfer Function Models and Sensitivity Analysis
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Nondestruftive Evaluation↗
Sensitivity of Modeled Soil NOx Emissions to Soil Moisture
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Daniel E. Huber↗
Single Event Latchup Sensitive Volume Model for a 180-nm SRAM Test Structure.
Abstract not provided.
Wang, Peng↗
Thermal Management System Modeling by Sensitivity Analysis Guided Symbolic Regression
Paper submission for review for ASME IMECE 2025 conference.
Rahman, Farhan [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-↗
Model form and sensitivity analysis of CALPHAD-based nucleation models in b-stabilized Ti alloys
Accurate prediction of α-phase nucleation and growth in β-stabilized titanium alloys is crucial for designing heat treatments to optimize mechanical properties in additively manufactured lightweight components. Ideally, predictions of nucleation and growth would incorporate both top-down observations of past experimental heat treatments and bottom-up modeling of phase transformations; however, the appropriate method of combining these information sources is not self-evident. Combining top-down and bottom-up information requires a unified form of model that can connect between spatiotemporal scales, as well as sets of fitting parameters that can be identified by each data source. The selection of which parameters to fit to which data source can be made based on expert opinion, or by performing a sensitivity analysis. In solid-solid nucleation, direct observation of the nucleation and growth process is challenging. Most data on the heat treatment-controlled phase transformations are not in-situ. To predict the process and outcome of the nucleation, growth and coarsening of precipitates, theoretical models of the nucleation pathway are used to bridge the gap. Many sources of uncertainty affect the modeling of this nucleation process. It can be influenced by small variations in the thermomechanical processing history, chemical composition, and initial microstructure. If molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are used to determine thermodynamic quantities and inform CALPHAD modeling, additional uncertainty can be introduced and accounted for using Bayesian methods. Top-down uncertainties require additional steps to quantify. The influence of nucleation model form on the sensitivity of predictions to input parameters and physical conditions is the focus of this study. Classical nucleation theory (CNT) allows modeling to formulate the nucleation as homogeneous or, more commonly, heterogeneous. Non-classical nucleation models are also increasingly explored as a means of reconciling top-down and bottom-up data. In this study, the sensitivity of the intragranular nucleation of α in a β-annealed, slow-cooled aging (BASCA) heat treatment of β-stabilized Ti5553 alloy is explored using CNT and both heterogeneous and homogeneous assumptions. The Kampmann-Wagner Numerical model of precipitate nucleation and growth is employed. Using open-source tools (pyCalphad and thermodynamic modeling of TiMo as a surrogate system, a sensitivity analysis is performed to measure variations in key parameters, including chemical driving force, interfacial energy, and diffusivity, as they relate to predictions of precipitate number density. The inclusion of top-down and bottom-up data in selection of nucleation model form is discussed.
Rodriguez Negron, A. M.↗
Effective moisture penetration depth model for residential buildings: Sensitivity analysis and guidance on model inputs
Moisture buffering of building materials has a significant impact on the building's indoor humidity, and building energy simulations need to model this buffering to accurately predict the humidity. Researchers requiring a simple moisture-buffering approach typically rely on the effective-capacitance model, which has been shown to be a poor predictor of actual indoor humidity. This paper describes an alternative two-layer effective moisture penetration depth (EMPD) model and its inputs. While this model has been used previously, there is a need to understand the sensitivity of this model to uncertain inputs. In this paper, we use the moisture-adsorbent materials exposed to the interior air: drywall, wood, and carpet. We use a global sensitivity analysis to determine which inputs are most influential and how the model's prediction capability degrades due to uncertainty in these inputs. We then compare the model's humidity prediction with measured data from five houses, which shows that this model, and a set of simple inputs, can give reasonable prediction of the indoor humidity.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Multiscale design of nonlinear materials using a Eulerian shape optimization scheme
Motivated by recent advances in manufacturing, the design of materials is the focal point of interest in the material research community. One of the critical challenges in this field is finding optimal material microstructure for a desired macroscopic response. This work presents a computational method for the mesoscale-level design of particulate composites for an optimal macroscale-level response. The method relies on a custom shape optimization scheme to find the extrema of a nonlinear cost function subject to a set of constraints. Three key “modules” constitute the method: multiscale modeling, sensitivity analysis, and optimization. Multiscale modeling relies on a classical homogenization method and a nonlinear NURBS-based generalized finite element scheme to efficiently and accurately compute the structural response of particulate composites using a nonconformal discretization. A three-parameter isotropic damage law is used to model microstructure-level failure. An analytical sensitivity method is developed to compute the derivatives of the cost/constraint functions with respect to the design variables that control the microstructure's geometry. The derivation uncovers subtle but essential new terms contributing to the sensitivity of finite element shape functions and their spatial derivatives. Several structural problems are solved to demonstrate the applicability, performance, and accuracy of the method for the design of particulate composites with a desired macroscopic nonlinear stress-strain response.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Mobile Sensing for Wind Field Estimation in Wind Farms: Preprint
This paper introduces a novel approach for estimating the wind field over an entire wind farm using a mobile sensor to collect limited amounts of data. The proposed method estimates the boundary conditions of a simplified turbine wake model by computing the model sensitivity matrix and using a recursive least-squares algorithm to recover the model parameters from the wind field measurements. To address the fact that it is not practical to take measurements across the entire wind farm, the proposed method classifies each area on the map based on its sensitivity to parameter variations. This classification is then used to generate a suitable path for a mobile sensor, which is charged with collecting data for the recursive least-squares algorithm. The proposed framework can successfully estimate the model boundary conditions using just the measurements collected along the path of the mobile sensor. This preliminary result paves the way for using real-time wind field estimates for the coordinated control of all the turbines within a wind farm.
estimation↗
A theoretical model for determining turbine flowmeter sensitivity
Analytical model of turbine-type flowmeter guides in the selection of valid extrapolation of available calibration data. An expression for flowmeter performance is developed to include the effects of fluid friction, bearing drag, and magnetic drag upon helical rotor design.
Smith, R. L.↗
The potential role of methanesulfonic acid (MSA) in aerosol formation and growth and the associated radiative forcings
Atmospheric marine aerosol particles impact Earth's albedo and climate. These particles can be primary or secondary and come from a variety of sources, including sea salt, dissolved organic matter, volatile organic compounds, and sulfur-containing compounds. Dimethylsulfide (DMS) marine emissions contribute greatly to the global biogenic sulfur budget, and its oxidation products can contribute to aerosol mass, specifically as sulfuric acid and methanesulfonic acid (MSA). Further, sulfuric acid is a known nucleating compound, and MSA may be able to participate in nucleation when bases are available. As DMS emissions, and thus MSA and sulfuric acid from DMS oxidation, may have changed since pre-industrial times and may change in a warming climate, it is important to characterize and constrain the climate impacts of both species. Currently, global models that simulate aerosol size distributions include contributions of sulfate and sulfuric acid from DMS oxidation, but to our knowledge, global models typically neglect the impact of MSA on size distributions. In this study, we use the GEOS-Chem-TOMAS (GC-TOMAS) global aerosol microphysics model to determine the impact on aerosol size distributions and subsequent aerosol radiative effects from including MSA in the size-resolved portion of the model. The effective equilibrium vapor pressure of MSA is currently uncertain, and we use the Extended Aerosol Inorganics Model (E-AIM) to build a parameterization for GC-TOMAS of MSA's effective volatility as a function of temperature, relative humidity, and available gas-phase bases, allowing MSA to condense as an ideally nonvolatile or semivolatile species or too volatile to condense. We also present two limiting cases for MSA's volatility, assuming that MSA is always ideally nonvolatile (irreversible condensation) or that MSA is always ideally semivolatile (quasi-equilibrium condensation but still irreversible condensation). We further present simulations in which MSA participates in binary and ternary nucleation with the same efficacy as sulfuric acid whenever MSA is treated as ideally nonvolatile. When using the volatility parameterization described above (both with and without nucleation), including MSA in the model changes the global annual averages at 900 hPa of submicron aerosol mass by 1.2 %, N3 (number concentration of particles greater than 3 nm in diameter) by -3.9 % (non-nucleating) or 112.5 % (nucleating), N80 by 0.8 % (non-nucleating) or 2.1 % (nucleating), the cloud-albedo aerosol indirect effect (AIE) by -8.6 mW m -2 (non-nucleating) or -26 mW m -2 (nucleating), and the direct radiative effect (DRE) by -15 mW m -2 (non-nucleating) or -14  mW m -2 (nucleating). The sulfate and sulfuric acid from DMS oxidation produces 4–6 times more submicron mass than MSA does, leading to an ~10 times stronger cooling effect in the DRE. But the changes in N80 are comparable between the contributions from MSA and from DMS-derived sulfate/sulfuric acid, leading to comparable changes in the cloud-albedo AIE. Model–measurement comparisons with the Heintzenberg et al. (2000) dataset over the Southern Ocean indicate that the default model has a missing source or sources of ultrafine particles: the cases in which MSA participates in nucleation (thus increasing ultrafine number) most closely match the Heintzenberg distributions, but we cannot conclude nucleation from MSA is the correct reason for improvement. Model–measurement comparisons with particle-phase MSA observed with a customized Aerodyne high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) from the ATom campaign show that cases with the MSA volatility parameterizations (both with and without nucleation) tend to fit the measurements the best (as this is the first use of MSA measurements from ATom, we provide a detailed description of these measurements and their calibration). However, no one model sensitivity case shows the best model–measurement agreement for both Heintzenberg and the ATom campaigns. As there are uncertainties in both MSA's behavior (nucleation and condensation) and the DMS emissions inventory, further studies on both fronts are needed to better constrain MSA's past, current, and future impacts upon the global aerosol size distribution and radiative forcing.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Changes in Extratropical Storm Track Cloudiness 1983-2008: Observational Support for a Poleward Shift
Climate model simulations suggest that the extratropical storm tracks will shift poleward as a consequence of global warming. In this study the northern and southern hemisphere storm tracks over the Pacific and Atlantic ocean basins are studied using observational data, primarily from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, ISCCP. Potential shifts in the storm tracks are examined using the observed cloud structures as proxies for cyclone activity. Different data analysis methods are employed, with the objective to address difficulties and uncertainties in using ISCCP data for regional trend analysis. In particular, three data filtering techniques are explored; excluding specific problematic regions from the analysis, regressing out a spurious viewing geometry effect, and excluding specific cloud types from the analysis. These adjustments all, to varying degree, moderate the cloud trends in the original data but leave the qualitative aspects of those trends largely unaffected. Therefore, our analysis suggests that ISCCP data can be used to interpret regional trends in cloudiness, provided that data and instrumental artefacts are recognized and accounted for. The variation in magnitude between trends emerging from application of different data correction methods, allows us to estimate possible ranges for the observational changes. It is found that the storm tracks, here represented by the extent of the midlatitude-centered band of maximum cloud cover over the studied ocean basins, experience a poleward shift as well as a narrowing over the 25 year period covered by ISCCP. The observed magnitudes of these effects are larger than in current generation climate models (CMIP3). The magnitude of the shift is particularly large in the northern hemisphere Atlantic. This is also the one of the four regions in which imperfect data primarily prevents us from drawing firm conclusions. The shifted path and reduced extent of the storm track cloudiness is accompanied by a regional reduction in total cloud cover. This decrease in cloudiness can primarily be ascribed to low level clouds, whereas the upper level cloud fraction actually increases, according to ISCCP. Independent satellite observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere are consistent with the changes in total cloud cover. The shift in cloudiness is also supported by a shift in central position of the mid-troposphere meridional temperature gradient. We do not find support for aerosols playing a significant role in the satellite observed changes in cloudiness. The observed changes in storm track cloudiness can be related to local cloud-induced changes in radiative forcing, using ERBE and CERES radiative fluxes. The shortwave and the longwave components are found to act together, leading to a positive (warming) net radiative effect in response to the cloud changes in the storm track regions, indicative of positive cloud feedback. Among the CMIP3 models that simulate poleward shifts in all four storm track areas, all but one show decreasing cloud amount on a global mean scale in response to increased CO2 forcing, further consistent with positive cloud feedback. Models with low equilibrium climate sensitivity to a lesser extent than higher-sensitivity models simulate a poleward shift of the storm tracks.
Bender, Frida A-M.↗
Comparisons of Mixing Efficiency for the Strut Fuel Injector Obtained from Large-Eddy and Reynolds-Averaged Simulations, and Experiments
Mixing efficiency is obtained for a strut fuel injector at hypervelocity flow conditions by using large-eddy simulations (LES), Reynolds-averaged simulations (RAS), and experiments. The injector and flow conditions have been previously investigated by using RAS and experiments as a part of the Enhanced Injection and Mixing Project (EIMP) at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC). Because the fidelity of LES is a strong function of the grid, the mixing efficiency is obtained on two grids, the coarser of which is a factor of two coarser in each of the three dimensions with respect to the fine grid. The RAS uses the two-equation linear eddy viscosity and diffusivity modeling of Menter. In RAS, the species diffusivity model exhibits a strong dependence on the turbulent Schmidt number, which is often adjusted until some metric of engineering interest, such as the mixing efficiency, matches the experimental data. In the absence of experimental data, scale-resolving simulations, such as LES, have been proposed as surrogates for experiments that could provide the data needed to “calibrate” the turbulent Schmidt number in the RAS models. This approach is followed because LES requires significantly more computational resources (CPU, data storage, and time) than RAS, making it prohibitive for use in many engineering applications and specifically for parameter exploration or optimization. Here we examine the mixing efficiency obtained from several RAS with different values of the turbulent Schmidt number, and compare the results with those obtained from the LES and experiments. In addition, the least squares fitting approach was used to demonstrate how to obtain an estimate for the turbulent Schmidt number from LES analytically. These estimates were then used together with prior knowledge about RAS model sensitivity to select a turbulence model that was expected to best match the LES data.
LES↗
Comparisons of Mixing Efficiency for the Strut Fuel Injector Obtained from Large-Eddy and Reynolds-Averaged Simulations, and Experiments
Mixing efficiency is obtained for a strut fuel injector at hypervelocity flow conditions by using large-eddy simulations (LES), Reynolds-averaged simulations (RAS), and experiments. The injector and flow conditions have been previously investigated by using RAS and experiments as a part of the Enhanced Injection and Mixing Project (EIMP) at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC). Because the fidelity of LES is a strong function of the grid, the mixing efficiency is obtained on two grids, the coarser of which is a factor of two coarser in each of the three dimensions with respect to the fine grid. The RAS uses the two-equation linear eddy viscosity and diffusivity modeling of Menter. In RAS, the species diffusivity model exhibits a strong dependence on the turbulent Schmidt number, which is often adjusted until some metric of engineering interest, such as the mixing efficiency, matches the experimental data. In the absence of experimental data, scale-resolving simulations, such as LES, have been proposed as surrogates for experiments that could provide the data needed to “calibrate” the turbulent Schmidt number in the RAS models. This approach is followed because LES requires significantly more computational resources (CPU, data storage, and time) than RAS, making it prohibitive for use in many engineering applications and specifically for parameter exploration or optimization. Here we examine the mixing efficiency obtained from several RAS with different values of the turbulent Schmidt number, and compare the results with those obtained from the LES and experiments. In addition, the least squares fitting approach was used to demonstrate how to obtain an estimate for the turbulent Schmidt number from LES analytically. These estimates were then used together with prior knowledge about RAS model sensitivity to select a turbulence model that was expected to best match the LES data.
LES↗
Fuel Matrix Degradation Model Development Update: Alloy Corrosion Rates and Hydrogen Generation
This work is being performed as part of the DOE NE Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology Campaign, Argillite and Crystalline Rock R&D work packages: SF-19AN01030101 and SF-19AN01030201. This document meets the milestone M4SF-19AN010301013 for Argillite R&D and the milestone M4SF-19AN010302013 for Crystalline R&D. The fuel matrix degradation (FMD) model calculates the degradation rate of spent UO2 fuel based on fundamental electrochemical theory and thermodynamics. The model provides the quantitative basis for radionuclide source term predictions in the generic disposal system analysis (GDSA) performance assessment (PA) model. The FMD model has been implemented in a manner that facilitates its integration with the GDSA-PA code and a preliminary, integrated FMD-GDSA model has been successfully tested (Jerden et al., 2017). The specific focus of on-going work is to accurately and quantitatively represent the generation of H2 in a breached waste package and its effect on the spent fuel degradation rate so that this key process can be accurately represented in PA models. It has been shown experimentally that millimolar concentrations of dissolved H2 in contact with spent fuel will inhibit oxidative dissolution and decrease the fuel degradation rates by as much as three orders of magnitude (e.g., Röllin et al., 2001, Ollila, 2008). This will lead to a significant decrease in the radionuclide source term values used in repository PA models. Sensitivity studies using the FMD model have shown that the dissolved H2 concentration is the dominant environmental variable affecting the UO2 spent fuel dissolution rate as long as a source of H2 persists in the breached waste package (Jerden et al., 2015). Therefore, on-going experimental and modeling efforts focus on H2 production, accumulation and interfacial reactions within a breached waste package. The anoxic corrosion of metallic engineering materials within a breached waste package will be the main source of H2 in crystalline and argillite rock repository systems. The most important H2-producing alloys present within a waste package include stainless steel, carbon steel, and aluminum alloys and the Zircaloy fuel cladding. A steel corrosion module was added to the FMD model to account for these H2 sources and couple the H2 generation rate with fuel degradation processes (Jerden et al., 2017). As discussed below, there is a need for experimental data from electrochemical corrosion tests to quantify the H2 generation rates due to the corrosion of these waste package alloys as a function of key environmental variables (Eh, pH, groundwater chemistry). This report presents results from series of electrochemical corrosion tests with materials present in waste packages that provide information needed to parameterize and validate the FMD model. The alloys tested include 316L stainless steel (316SS), AISI 4320 carbon steel (C-steel) and Zircaloy-4 fuel cladding (unirradiated). Potentiodynamic polarization and potentiostatic polarization tests were performed in buffer solutions at pH 4, 7 and 10 with NaCl concentrations of 0, 4 and 100 millimolar (mM). The potentiostatic tests were performed at voltages varying from 0.5 volts down to -0.66 volts, vs the standard hydrogen electrode (SHE), and all tests were performed at laboratory ambient temperatures (~22 °C). The corrosion rates measured during the electrochemical tests were used as direct input to a new FMD/in-package chemistry model that is being developed to provide accurate long-term spent fuel degradation rates as chemical conditions (Eh, pH, speciation) evolve within a breached waste package. This new model was developed by coupling the FMD model with the reactive transport code X1t, which is a module within the Geochemist’s Workbench (GWB) reaction path modeling code (Jerden et al., 2019). The reactive transport model consists of a 1D domain discretized with 21 reaction diffusion cells and includes a single waste packag
Jerden, James↗
Bayesian weighting of climate models based on climate sensitivity
Using climate model ensembles containing members that exhibit very high climate sensitivities to increasing CO 2 concentrations can result in biased projections. Various methods have been proposed to ameliorate this ‘hot model’ problem, such as model emulators or model culling. Here, we utilize Bayesian Model Averaging as a framework to address this problem without resorting to outright rejection of models from the ensemble. Taking advantage of multiple lines of evidence used to construct the best estimate of the earth’s climate sensitivity, the Bayesian Model Averaging framework produces an unbiased posterior probability distribution of model weights. The updated multi-model ensemble projects end-of-century global mean surface temperature increases of 2 °C for a low emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6) and 5 °C for a high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). These estimates are lower than those produced using a simple multi-model mean for the CMIP6 ensemble. The results are also similar to results from a model culling approach, but retain some weight on low-probability models, allowing for consideration of the possibility that the true value could lie at the extremes of the assessed distribution. Our results showcase Bayesian Model Averaging as a path forward to project future climate change that is commensurate with the available scientific evidence.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
The sensitivity of the forest carbon budget shifts across processes along with stand development and climate change
Abstract The future trajectory of atmospheric CO 2 concentration depends on the development of the terrestrial carbon sink, which in turn is influenced by forest dynamics under changing environmental conditions. An in‐depth understanding of model sensitivities and uncertainties in non‐steady‐state conditions is necessary for reliable and robust projections of forest development and under scenarios of global warming and CO 2 enrichment. Here, we systematically assessed if a biogeochemical process‐based model (3D‐CMCC‐CNR), which embeds similarities with many other vegetation models, applied in simulating net primary productivity (NPP) and standing woody biomass (SWB), maintained a consistent sensitivity to its 55 input parameters through time, during forest ageing and structuring as well as under climate change scenarios. Overall, the model applied at three contrasting European forests showed low sensitivity to the majority of its parameters. Interestingly, model sensitivity to parameters varied through the course of >100 yr of simulations. In particular, the model showed a large responsiveness to the allometric parameters used for initialize forest carbon and nitrogen pools early in forest simulation (i.e., for NPP up to ~37%, 256 g C·m −2 ·yr −1 and for SWB up to ~90%, 65 Mg C/ha, when compared to standard simulation), with this sensitivity decreasing sharply during forest development. At medium to longer time scales, and under climate change scenarios, the model became increasingly more sensitive to additional and/or different parameters controlling biomass accumulation and autotrophic respiration (i.e., for NPP up to ~30%, 167 g C·m −2 ·yr −1 and for SWB up to ~24%, 64 Mg C/ha, when compared to standard simulation). Interestingly, model outputs were shown to be more sensitive to parameters and processes controlling stand development rather than to climate change (i.e., warming and changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration) itself although model sensitivities were generally higher under climate change scenarios. Our results suggest the need for sensitivity and uncertainty analyses that cover multiple temporal scales along forest developmental stages to better assess the potential of future forests to act as a global terrestrial carbon sink.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Sensitivity of the boundary layer energy fluxes to forcing parameters in a simple climate model
Winter and summer surface temperatures and time-averaged boundary layer energy fluxes are calculated by utilizing the Saltzman-Ashe parameterization for boundary layer fluxes in a two-level static model. The results are found to agree with observed patterns. Within the framework of this simple model, sensitivity analyses of the time-averaged boundary layer energy fluxes are conducted. Based on these results some of the forcing parameters (such as the subsurface temperature, cloud cover, surface albedo, etc.) are arranged in a hierarchical order of importance. A generalized method of sensitivity analysis is also suggested.
Rao, M. S.↗