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At least 163 records · Page 9

Comparison of model predictions with LDEF satellite radiation measurements

Some early results are summarized from a program under way to utilize Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) satellite data for evaluating and improving current models of the space radiation environment in low Earth orbit. Reported here are predictions and comparisons with some of the LDEF dose and induced radioactivity data, which are used to check the accuracy of current models describing the magnitude and directionality of the trapped proton environment. Preliminary findings are that the environment models underestimate both dose and activation from trapped protons by a factor of about two, and the observed anisotropy is higher than predicted.

Armstrong, T. W.

Heat flux estimates over vegetation derived using radiometric surface temperatures and a boundary layer model in comparison with sodar-derived values

An attempt was made to validate a method that uses radiometric surface temperatures and a boundary layer model to estimate surface energy budgets and characteristics. Surface temperatures from a hand-held radiometer and sodar data were collected simultaneously on seven days between mid-July and mid-October 1980. The comparison of the RDMS and sodar heat fluxes proved disappointing. Free convection conditions, required to produce sodar-derived heat fluxes, were inhibited by a terrain-induced low level inversion. Only three out of seven cases produced meaningful sodar heat fluxes. Of those three cases, one had good agreement and the other two had sodar heat fluxes 15 to 45 w/sq m lower than the RDMS values. Since the RDMS method is relatively untested, it was impossible to conclusively determine its validity from the results. There was evidence that the true heat flux was not underestimated by the RDMS, so it could be concluded that the Bowen ratios over well-watered vegetation were likely to be quite small.

Cooper, J. N.

The 200- to 300-nm radiation field in the stratosphere - Comparison of models with observation

The SABE 1 experiment (Herman and Mentall, 1982) measured the direct and scattered solar radiation at wavelengths between 190 and 320 nm from a balloon floating at 40 km altitude. We use state of the art radiative transfer models together with cross sections and solar flux data commonly used in modeling of the stratosphere to calculate the direct and scattered radiation at 40 km. The comparison between theory and experiment made by Herman and Mentall (1982) is extended. Significant discrepancies in the ratio of the scattered to direct flux not discussed in their work were found in the Schumann-Runge band and above 280 nm. Possible reasons for the differences are discussed.

Kylling, A.

The use of suspension models and comparison with true weightlessness

A resume is presented of various papers concerning the effect of weightlessness on particular physiological and biochemical phenomena in animal model systems. Findings from weightlessness experiments on earth using suspension models are compared with results of experiments in orbit. The biological phenomena considered include muscle atrophy, changes in the endocrine system, reduction in bone formation, and changes in the cardiovascular system.

Musacchia, X. J.

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in assessing the success of different model configurations in predicting warm season convection over East-Central Florida. The Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software allows users to choose among two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Besides model core and initialization options, the WRF model can be run with one- or two-way nesting. Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, creates challenges for local forecasters, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. This project assessed three different model intializations available to determine which configuration best predicts warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. The project also examined the use of one- and two-way nesting in predicting warm season convection.

Watson, Leela R.

Nitrogen and chlorine species in the spring Antarctic stratosphere - Comparison of models with Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment observations

The concentrations and the time development of chlorine and nitrogen trace gases in the Antarctic stratosphere before, during, and after the Airborne Antractic Ozone Experiment (AAOE) were simulated using photochemical models of the Antractic stratosphere during winter/spring. The initial conditions in the calculations were constrained using observations by the AAOE instrument. The comparison of calculated results with the AAOE measurements of HCl and ClO suggest that heterogeneous chemistry was maintained throughout the month of September 1987.

Rodriguez, J. M.

Solidification of Drops in the MSFC Drop Tube

Silver drops (99.9%, 7 mm diameter) were levitated, melted, and released to fall through the Marshall Space Flight Center's 105 m drop tube in an He-6% H atmosphere at 170 degrees superheat. The extent of solidification during the approx. 4.6 s of free fall time prior to impact was measured experimentally and computed numerically using a newly developed solidification heat transfer model. Comparison of the experimental observation of the fraction of liquid transformed with the numerical solutions showed reasonable agreement. Possible modifications of the model, in an attempt to close the gap between the experiment and the model comparison are discussed.

Brush, Lucien N.

Differential rotation and turbulent convection: A new Reynolds stress model and comparison with solar data

In most hydrodynamic cases, the existence of a turbulent flow superimposed on a mean flow is caused by a shear instability in the latter. Boussinesq suggested the first model for the turbulent Reynolds stresses bar-(u(sub i)u(sub j)) in which the mean shear S(sub ij) is the cause (or source) of turbulence represented by the stress bar-(u(sub i)u(sub j)). In the case of solar differential rotation, exactly the reverse physical process occurs: turbulence (which must pre-exist) generates a mean flow which manifests itself in the form of differential rotation. Thus, the Boussinesq model is wholly inadequate because in the solar case, cause and effect are reversed. Since the Boussinesq model is inadequate, one needs an alternative model for the Reynolds stresses. We present a new dynamical model for the Reynolds stresses, convective fluxes, turbulent kinetic energy, and temperature fluctuations. The complete model requires the solution of 11 differential equations. We then introduce a set of simplifying assumptions which reduce the full dynamical model to a set of algebraic Reynolds stress models. We explicitly solve one of these models that entails only one differential equation. The overall agreement with the data is obtained with a model that is neither phenomenological nor one that requires a full numerical simulation, since it is algebraic in nature. The new model can play an important role in understanding the complex physics underlying the interplay between solar differential rotation and convection, as many physical processes can naturally be incorporated into the model.

Canuto, V. M.

Evaluation of Trapped Radiation Model Uncertainties for Spacecraft Design

The standard AP8 and AE8 models for predicting trapped proton and electron environments have been compared with several sets of flight data to evaluate model uncertainties. Model comparisons are made with flux, dose, and activation measurements made on various U.S. low-Earth orbit satellites (APEX, CRRES, DMSP. LDEF, NOAA) and Space Shuttle flights, on Russian satellites (Photon-8, Cosmos-1887, Cosmos-2044), and on the Russian Mir space station. This report gives a summary of the model-data given in a companion report. Results from the model comparisons with flight data show, for example, that the AP8 model underpredicts the trapped proton flux at low altitudes by a factor of about two (independent of proton energy and solar cycle conditions), and that the AE8 model overpredict the flux in the outer electron belt be an order of magnitude or more.

Armstrong, T. W.

Soil Moisture Estimation in South Asia via Assimilation of SMAP Retrievals

A soil moisture retrieval assimilation framework is implemented across South Asia in an attempt to improve regional soil moisture estimation as well as to provide a consistent regional soil moisture dataset. This study aims to improve the spatiotemporal variability of soil moisture estimates by assimilating Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) near-surface soil moisture retrievals into a land surface model. The Noah-MP (v4.0.1) land surface model is run within the NASA Land Information System software framework to model regional land surface processes. NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA2) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals (IMERG) provide the meteorological boundary conditions to the land surface model. Assimilation is carried out using both cumulative distribution function (CDF)-corrected (DA-CDF) and uncorrected SMAP retrievals (DA-NoCDF). CDF matching is applied to correct the statistical moments of the SMAP soil moisture retrieval relative to the land surface model. Comparison of assimilated and model-only soil moisture estimates with publicly available in situ measurements highlights the relative improvement in soil moisture estimates by assimilating SMAP retrievals. Across the Tibetan Plateau, DA-NoCDF reduced the mean bias and RMSE by 8.4 % and 9.4 %, even though assimilation only occurred during less than 10 % of the study period due to frozen (or partially frozen) soil conditions. The best goodness-of-fit statistics were achieved for the IMERG DA-NoCDF soil moisture experiment. The general lack of publicly available in situ measurements across irrigated areas limited a domain-wide direct model validation. However, comparison with regional irrigation patterns suggested correction of biases associated with an unmodeled hydrologic phenomenon (i.e., anthropogenic influence via irrigation) as a result of SMAP soil moisture retrieval assimilation. The greatest sensitivity to assimilation was observed in cropland areas. Improvements in soil moisture potentially translate into improved spatiotemporal patterns of modeled evapotranspiration, although limited influence from soil moisture assimilation was observed on modeled processes within the carbon cycle such as gross primary production. Improvement in fine-scale modeled estimates by assimilating coarse-scale retrievals highlights the potential of this approach for soil moisture estimation over data-scarce regions.

Jawairia Ahmad

The GOddard SnoW Impurity Module (GOSWIM) for the NASA GEOS-5 Earth System Model: Preliminary Comparisons with Observations in Sapporo, Japan

The snow darkening module evaluating dust, black carbon, and organic carbon depositions on mass and albedo has been developed for the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) Earth System Model, as the GOddard SnoW Impurity Module (GOSWIM). GOSWIM consists of the snow albedo scheme from a previous study (Yasunari et al. 2011) with updates and a newly developed mass concentration scheme, using aerosol depositions from the chemical transport model (GOCART) in GEOS-5. Compared to observations at Sapporo, the numerical experiments, forced by observation-based meteorology and aerosol depositions from GOES-5, better simulated the seasonal migration of snow depth, albedos, and impurities of dust, BC, and OC in the snow surface. However, the magnitude of the impurities is underestimated, compared to the sporadic snow impurity measurements. Increasing the deposition rates of dust and BC could explain the differences on the snow darkening effect between observation and simulation. Ignoring BC deposition can possibly lead to an extension of snow cover duration in Sapporo for four days. Comparing the off-line GOSWIM and the GEOS-5 global simulations, we found that determining better local precipitation and deposition rates of the aerosols are key factors in generating better GOSWIM snow darkening simulation in NASA GEOS-5.

land surface processes

Do initial conditions matter? A comparison of model climatologies generated from different initial states

A coarse mesh (8 by 10) 7 layer global climate model was used to compute 15 months of meteorological history in two perpetual January experiments on a water planet (without continents) with a zonally symmetric climatological January sea surface temperature field. In the first of the two water planet experiments the initial atmospheric state was a set of zonal mean values of specific humidity, temperature, and wind at each latitude. In the second experiment the model was initialized with globally uniform mean values of specific humidity and temperature on each sigma level surface, constant surface pressure (1010 mb), and zero wind everywhere. A comparison was made of the mean January climatic states generated by the two water planet experiments. The first two months of each 15 January run were discarded, and 13 month averages were computed from months 3 through 15.

Spar, J.

Light-induced electron dynamics of molecules in cavities: comparison of model Hamiltonians

The rapidly expanding field of polaritonic chemistry requires accurate theoretical simulations to understand new phenomena at the atomic scale. Computing the optoelectronic properties of molecules using established electronic structure methods is a careful balance of accuracy and computational expense, and expanding these methods to quantum electrodynamics to describe coupled cavity-molecule systems is an active topic of development. Key to these methods are the Hamiltonian operators representing the photon cavity modes. The recently introduced quantum electrodynamics time-dependent configuration interaction (QED-TDCI) method allows for the combination of electron dynamics simulations with quantum electrodynamics, enabling the simulation of time-dependent optoelectronic properties of cavity-molecule systems. Using this method, a comparison of two many-state QED Hamiltonians—the Pauli-Fierz and quantum Rabi model Hamiltonians—is presented, with a particular focus on time-dependent properties in applied electric fields.

Peyton, Benjamin G. (ORCID:0000000163190751)

Heterogeneous conversion of N2O5 to HNO3 on background stratospheric aerosols - Comparisons of model results with data

The effects of heterogeneous processing by a parameterized lower stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer on model calculations were examined using a 2D photochemical model. Model results were compared with zonally averaged LIMS data on HNO3 and NO2 and in situ measurements of NO, NO(y), and ClO, taken by the ER-2 aircraft. The results obtained are contradictory: some comparisons favor heterogeneous chemistry, and some do not. It is suggested that the assumptions made to parameterize the sulfate aerosol chemistry result in a rate of heterogeneous processing that is too vigorous.

Considine, David B.

Solar Cycle 25 Model Prediction Comparisons: an Engineering Perspective

The solar cycle 25 progression is ramping up, prompting satellite operators to provide estimates of propellent usage over the next several years. Drag due to atmospheric heating from solar activity is the main driver to satellite lifetime decay, especially for those in low-Earth orbit destinations. In this poster, several model predictions of the sunspot number are compared and discussed with comments on applicability to engineering programs.

Space Weather

Winter-to-Summer Precipitation Phasing in Southwestern North America: A Multi-Century Perspective from Paleoclimatic Model-Data Comparisons

The phasing of winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the North American monsoon (NAM) region 2 (113.25 deg W-107.75 deg W, 30 deg N-35.25 deg N-NAM2) of southwestern North America is analyzed in fully coupled simulations of the Last Millennium and compared to tree ring reconstructed winter and summer precipitation variability. The models simulate periods with in-phase seasonal precipitation anomalies, but the strength of this relationship is variable on multidecadal time scales, behavior that is also exhibited by the reconstructions. The models, however, are unable to simulate periods with consistently out-of-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies as observed in the latter part of the instrumental interval. The periods with predominantly in-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the models are significant against randomness, and while this result is suggestive of a potential for dual-season drought on interannual and longer time scales, models do not consistently exhibit the persistent dual-season drought seen in the dendroclimatic reconstructions. These collective findings indicate that model-derived drought risk assessments may underestimate the potential for dual-season drought in 21st century projections of hydroclimate in the American Southwest and parts of Mexico.

Variability