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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
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NASA NTRS2017

The PMIP4 Contribution to CMIP6-Part 4: Scientific Objectives and Experimental Design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum Experiments and PMIP4 Sensitivity Experiments

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) is one of the suite of paleoclimate simulations included in the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It is an interval when insolation was similar to the present, but global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level was at or close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. The LGM has been a focus for the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) since its inception, and thus many of the problems that might be associated with simulating such a radically different climate are well documented. The LGM state provides an ideal case study for evaluating climate model performance because the changes in forcing and temperature between the LGM and pre-industrial are of the same order of magnitude as those projected for the end of the 21st century. Thus, the CMIP6 LGM experiment could provide additional information that can be used to constrain estimates of climate sensitivity. The design of the Tier 1 LGM experiment (lgm) includes an assessment of uncertainties in boundary conditions, in particular through the use of different reconstructions of the ice sheets and of the change in dust forcing. Additional (Tier 2) sensitivity experiments have been designed to quantify feedbacks associated with land-surface changes and aerosol loadings, and to isolate the role of individual forcings. Model analysis and evaluation will capitalize on the relative abundance of paleoenvironmental observations and quantitative climate reconstructions already available for the LGM.

Kageyama, Masa↗
NASA NTRS2023

CERESMIP: A Climate Modeling Protocol to Investigate Recent Trends in the Earth's Energy Imbalance

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has now produced over two decades of observed data on the Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) and has revealed substantive trends in both the reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave top-of-atmosphere radiation components. Available climate model simulations suggest that these trends are incompatible with purely internal variability, but that the full magnitude and breakdown of the trends are outside of the model ranges. Unfortunately, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) (CMIP6) protocol only uses observed forcings to 2014 (and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) projections thereafter), and furthermore, many of the ‘observed' drivers have been updated substantially since the CMIP6 inputs were defined. Most notably, the sea surface temperature (SST) estimates have been revised and now show up to 50% greater trends since 1979, particularly in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, estimates of short-lived aerosol and gas-phase emissions have been substantially updated. These revisions will likely have material impacts on the model-simulated EEI. We therefore propose a new, relatively low-cost, model intercomparison, CERESMIP, that would target the CERES period (2000-present), with updated forcings to at least the end of 2021. The focus will be on atmosphere-only simulations, using updated SST, forcings and emissions from 1990 to 2021. The key metrics of interest will be the EEI and atmospheric feedbacks, and so the analysis will benefit from output from satellite cloud observation simulators. The Tier 1 request would consist only of an ensemble of AMIP-style simulations, while the Tier 2 request would encompass uncertainties in the applied forcing, atmospheric composition, single and all-but-one forcing responses. We present some preliminary results and invite participation from a wide group of models.

CMIP6↗
NASA NTRS2021

Mid-Pliocene West African Monsoon Rainfall as Simulated in the PlioMIP2 Ensemble

The mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; ∼3.2 million years ago) is seen as the most recent time period characterized by a warm climate state, with similar to modern geography and ∼400 ppmv atmospheric CO2 concentration, and is therefore often considered an interesting analogue for near-future climate projections. Paleoenvironmental reconstructions indicate higher surface temperatures, decreasing tropical deserts, and a more humid climate in West Africa characterized by a strengthened West African Monsoon (WAM). Using model results from the second phase of the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2) ensemble, we analyse changes of the WAM rainfall during the mPWP by comparing them with the control simulations for the pre-industrial period. The ensemble shows a robust increase in the summer rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region, with an average increase of 2.5 mm/d, contrasted by a rainfall decrease over the equatorial Atlantic. An anomalous warming of the Sahara and deepening of the Saharan Heat Low, seen in >90 % of the models, leads to a strengthening of the WAM and an increased monsoonal flow into the continent. A similar warming of the Sahara is seen in future projections using both phase 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). Though previous studies of future projections indicate a west–east drying–wetting contrast over the Sahel, PlioMIP2 simulations indicate a uniform rainfall increase in that region in warm climates characterized by increasing greenhouse gas forcing. We note that this effect will further depend on the long-term response of the vegetation to the CO2 forcing.

Mid-Pliocene↗
NASA NTRS2017

Historic Global Biomass Burning Emissions for CMIP6 (BB4CMIP) Based on Merging Satellite Observations with Proxies and Fire Models (1750-2015)

Fires have influenced atmospheric composition and climate since the rise of vascular plants, and satellite data has shown the overall global extent of fires. Our knowledge of historic fire emissions has progressively improved over the past decades due mostly to the development of new proxies and the improvement of fire models. Currently there is a suite of proxies including sedimentary charcoal records, measurements of fire-emitted trace gases and black carbon stored in ice and firn, and visibility observations. These proxies provide opportunities to extrapolate emissions estimates based on satellite data starting in 1997, but each proxy has strengths and weaknesses regarding, for example, the spatial and temporal extents over which they are representative. We developed a new historic biomass burning emissions dataset starting in 1750 that merges the satellite record with several existing proxies, and uses the average of six models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) protocol to estimate emissions when the available proxies had limited coverage. According to our approach, global biomass burning emissions were relatively constant with 10-year averages varying between 1.8 and 2.3 petagrams of carbon per year. Carbon emissions increased only slightly over the full time period and peaked during the 1990's after which they decreased gradually. There is substantial uncertainty in these estimates and patterns varied depending on choices regarding data representation, especially on regional scales. The observed pattern in fire carbon emissions is for a large part driven by African fires, which accounted for 58 percent of global fire carbon emissions. African fire emissions declined since about 1950 due to conversion of savanna to cropland, and this decrease is partially compensated for by increasing emissions in deforestation zones of South America and Asia. These global fire emissions estimates are mostly suited for global analyses and will be used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations.

Biomass burning; Satellite observations; computer ↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Building a Framework to Model Food Security Pressures and Shocks in a Changing World

• An Intersection of Challenges for Food Security • The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) • Establishing and evaluating agricultural models • Responding to the transient signal of climate change • Understanding food systems and identifying potential for unexpected behaviors • Opportunities For a More Resilient Future

Food Security↗
DOE OSTI2024

Robust increase in South Asian monsoon rainfall under warming driven by extratropical clouds and ocean

The responses of South Asian Monsoon (SAM) circulation under global warming are known to be highly uncertain, leading to the wide spread of SAM rainfall projections among models. Here, we show that the uncertain SAM circulation in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models consists of two robust components that partly offset each other: a weakening component linked to a global thermodynamic constraint and a northward shift component understood through a regional 2D energetic perspective. We further attribute the robust northward shift of SAM circulation to positive cloud feedback over the Eurasia Continent and heat uptake in the Southern Ocean. A set of climate model simulations supports the finding that SAM rainfall increase is primarily due to the northward shift of circulation driven by extratropical processes. This energetic perspective opens new avenues for predicting monsoon rainfall by connecting circulation changes to radiative forcing, feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Are North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Modulated by the Madden–Julian Oscillation in HighResMIP AGCMs?

This study assesses the representation of the observed relationship between Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) across nine models participating in CMIP6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). Most models struggle to faithfully reproduce the observed impacts of the MJO on Atlantic TCs, with the primary issue being the underestimated TC activity over the Atlantic main development region (MDR). The negative biases in genesis frequency within the MDR can be further attributed to weaker-than-observed African easterly wave (AEW) activity south of ∼12°N. Errors in the diabatic heating profile within the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone lead to insufficient potential vorticity production in the lower troposphere and constrain the amplification of AEWs. In addition to the biased TC climatology, the eastward-propagating power of the MJO is consistently underestimated across all models. Nevertheless, in models with a higher eastward–westward power ratio, the simulated MJO demonstrates a stronger capacity to modulate subseasonal TC activity. Models with relatively realistic eastward propagation of the MJO also exhibit greater variance in tropical intraseasonal convection. Stronger contrasts in convective heating over the North Atlantic between phases 2–3 and phases 6–7 drive larger fluctuations in MDR shear and AEW activity over the Gulf of Mexico and West Africa, resulting in a more pronounced TC response to the MJO. Overall, our findings suggest that improved MDR TC climatology and MJO propagation are essential for models to accurately capture the observed modulations of Atlantic TCs by the MJO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2000

Intercomparison of Models Representing Direct Shortwave Radiative Forcing by Sulfate Aerosols

The importance of aerosols as agents of climate change has recently been highlighted. However, the magnitude of aerosol forcing by scattering of shortwave radiation (direct forcing) is still very uncertain even for the relatively well characterized sulfate aerosol. A potential source of uncertainty is in the model representation of aerosol optical properties and aerosol influences on radiative transfer in the atmosphere. Although radiative transfer methods and codes have been compared in the past, these comparisons have not focused on aerosol forcing (change in net radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere). Here we report results of a project involving 12 groups using 15 models to examine radiative forcing by sulfate aerosol for a wide range of values of particle radius, aerosol optical depth, surface albedo, and solar zenith angle. Among the models that were employed were high and low spectral resolution models incorporating a variety of radiative transfer approximations as well as a line-by-line model. The normalized forcings (forcing per sulfate column burden) obtained with the several radiative transfer models were examined, and the discrepancies were characterized. All models simulate forcings of comparable amplitude and exhibit a similar dependence on input parameters. As expected for a non-light-absorbing aerosol, forcings were negative (cooling influence) except at high surface albedo combined with small solar zenith angle. The relative standard deviation of the zenith-angle-averaged normalized broadband forcing for 15 models-was 8% for particle radius near the maximum in this forcing (approx. 0.2 microns) and at low surface albedo. Somewhat greater model-to-model discrepancies were exhibited at specific solar zenith angles. Still greater discrepancies were exhibited at small particle radii and much greater discrepancies were exhibited at high surface albedos, at which the forcing changes sign; in these situations, however, the normalized forcing is quite small quite small. Discrepancies among the models arise from inaccuracies in Mie calculations, differing treatment of the angular scattering phase function, differing wavelength and angular resolution, and differing treatment of multiple scattering. These results imply the need for standardized radiative transfer methods tailored to the direct aerosol forcing problem. However, the relatively small spread in these results suggests that the uncertainty in forcing arising from the treatment of radiative forcing of a well-characterized aerosol at well-specified surface albedo is smaller than some of the other sources of uncertainty in estimates of direct forcing by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols and anthropogenic aerosols generally.

Boucher, O.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Intercomparison of Model Simulations of the Impact of 1997/98 El Nino on South American Summer Monsoon

The simulations of climatology and response of the South American summer monsoon (SASM) to the 1997/98 El Nino are investigated using six atmospheric general circulation models. Results show all models simulate the large-scale features of the SASM reasonably well. However, both stationary and seasonal components of the surface pressure are overestimated, resulting in an excessively strong SASM in the model climatology. The low-level northwesterly jet over eastern foothills of the Andes is not well resolved because of the coarse resolution of the models. Large rainfall simulation biases are found in association with the Andes and the Atlantic ITCZ, indicating model problems in handling steep mountains and parameterization of convective processes. The simulation of the 1997/98 El Nino impact on SASM is examined based on an ensemble of ten two-year (September 1996 - August 1998) integration. Results show that most models can simulate the large-scale tropospheric warming response over the tropical central Pacific, including the dynamic response of Rossby wave propagation of the Pacific-South America (PSA) pattern that influences remote areas. Deficiencies are found in simulating the regional impacts over South America. Model simulation fails to capture the southeastward expansion of anomalously warm tropospheric air. As a result, the upper tropospheric anomalous high over the subtropical Andes is less pronounced, and the enhancement of subtropical westerly jet is displaced 5deg-10deg equatorward compared to the observed. Over the Amazon basin, the shift of Walker cell induced by El Nino is not well represented, showing anomalous easterlies in both upper and lower troposphere.

Zhou, Jiayu↗
NASA NTRS2004

EOS Aqua AMSR-E Arctic Sea Ice Validation Program: Intercomparison Between Modeled and Measured Sea Ice Brightness Temperatures

During March 2003, an extensive field campaign was conducted near Barrow, Alaska to validate AQUA Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) sea ice products. Field, airborne and satellite data were collected over three different types of sea ice: 1) first year ice with little deformation, 2) first year ice with various amounts of deformation and 3) mixed first year ice and multi-year ice with various degrees of deformation. The validation plan relies primarily on comparisons between satellite, aircraft flights and ground-based measurements. Although these efforts are important, key aspects such as the effects of atmospheric conditions, snow properties, surface roughness, melt processes, etc on the sea ice algorithms are not sufficiently well understood or documented. To improve our understanding of these effects, we combined the detailed, in-situ data collection from the 2003 field campaign with radiance modeling using a radiative transfer model to simulate the top of the atmosphere AMSR brightness temperatures. This study reports on the results of the simulations for a variety of snow and ice types and compares the results with the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Environmental Technology Laboratory Polarimetric Scanning Radiometer (NOAA) (ETL) (PSR) microwave radiometer that was flown on the NASA P-3.

Stroeve, J.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Evaluating Coastal Landscape Response to Sea-Level Rise in the Northeastern United States - Approach and Methods

The U.S. Geological Survey is examining effects of future sea-level rise on the coastal landscape from Maine to Virginia by producing spatially explicit, probabilistic predictions using sea-level projections, vertical land movement rates (due to isostacy), elevation data, and land-cover data. Sea-level-rise scenarios used as model inputs are generated by using multiple sources of information, including Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models following representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. A Bayesian network is used to develop a predictive coastal response model that integrates the sea-level, elevation, and land-cover data with assigned probabilities that account for interactions with coastal geomorphology as well as the corresponding ecological and societal systems it supports. The effects of sea-level rise are presented as (1) level of landscape submergence and (2) coastal response type characterized as either static (that is, inundation) or dynamic (that is, landform or landscape change). Results are produced at a spatial scale of 30 meters for four decades (the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). The probabilistic predictions can be applied to landscape management decisions based on sea-level-rise effects as well as on assessments of the prediction uncertainty and need for improved data or fundamental understanding. This report describes the methods used to produce predictions, including information on input datasets; the modeling approach; model outputs; data-quality-control procedures; and information on how to access the data and metadata online.

terrain↗
NASA NTRS2015

The ENSO Effects on Tropical Clouds and Top-of-Atmosphere Cloud Radiative Effects in CMIP5 Models

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on tropical clouds and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) cloud radiative effects (CREs) in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5) models are evaluated using satellite-based observations and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project satellite simulator output. Climatologically, most CMIP5 models produce considerably less total cloud amount with higher cloud top and notably larger reflectivity than observations in tropical Indo-Pacific (60 degrees East - 200 degrees East; 10 degrees South - 10 degrees North). During ENSO, most CMIP5 models considerably underestimate TOA CRE and cloud changes over western tropical Pacific. Over central tropical Pacific, while the multi-model mean resembles observations in TOA CRE and cloud amount anomalies, it notably overestimates cloud top pressure (CTP) decreases; there are also substantial inter-model variations. The relative effects of changes in cloud properties, temperature and humidity on TOA CRE anomalies during ENSO in the CMIP5 models are assessed using cloud radiative kernels. The CMIP5 models agree with observations in that their TOA shortwave CRE anomalies are primarily contributed by total cloud amount changes, and their TOA longwave CRE anomalies are mostly contributed by changes in both total cloud amount and CTP. The model biases in TOA CRE anomalies particularly the strong underestimations over western tropical Pacific are, however, mainly explained by model biases in CTP and cloud optical thickness (tau) changes. Despite the distinct model cloud biases particularly in tau regime, the TOA CRE anomalies from cloud amount changes are comparable between the CMIP5 models and observations, because of the strong compensations between model underestimation of TOA CRE anomalies from thin clouds and overestimation from medium and thick clouds.

Su, Wenying↗
NASA NTRS2017

Assessing Inter-Sectoral Climate Change Risks: The Role of ISIMIP

The aims of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) are to provide a framework for the intercomparison of global and regional-scale risk models within and across multiple sectors and to enable coordinated multi-sectoral assessments of different risks and their aggregated effects. The overarching goal is to use the knowledge gained to support adaptation and mitigation decisions that require regional or global perspectives within the context of facilitating transformations to enable sustainable development, despite inevitable climate shifts and disruptions. ISIMIP uses community-agreed sets of scenarios with standardized climate variables and socioeconomic projections as inputs for projecting future risks and associated uncertainties, within and across sectors. The results are consistent multi-model assessments of sectoral risks and opportunities that enable studies that integrate across sectors, providing support for implementation of the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Regional-scale risk models↗
NASA NTRS2016

Evaluation of Modeled Vertical Distribution of Atmospheric SO2 and Sulfate in UTLS

We evaluated the vertical profiles of both SO2 and sulfate in the AEROCOM (Aerosol Model Intercomparison) Phase II participating models. SO2 and sulfate show significant concentration gradient in both horizontal and vertical directions. Both online and offline aerosol transport models show large difference in the vertical distribution of sulfur species from surface all the way up to lower stratosphere. Comparison with available aircraft measurements suggests models agree with observations well when SO2 concentration is high. For the volcanic plumes, the injection height and magnitude determines initial SO2 plume distribution and following transport pattern. At high altitude, where the background concentration of SO2 is often below the detection limit of the current aircraft instruments and satellite retrievals, modeled SO2 and sulfate concentration, lifetime, and budget, as well as their uncertainties can be difficult to be accurately quantified.

volcanic plumes↗
NASA NTRS2020

Bias in CMIP6 Models as Compared to Observed Regional Dimming and Brightening

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions have increased considerably over the last century, but climate effects and quantification of the emissions are highly uncertain as one goes back in time. This uncertainty is partly due to a lack of observations in the pre-satellite era, making the observations we do have before 1990 additionally valuable. Aerosols suspended in the atmosphere scatter and absorb incoming solar radiation and thereby alter the Earth's surface energy balance. Previous studies show that Earth system models (ESMs) do not adequately represent surface energy fluxes over the historical era. We investigated global and regional aerosol effects over the time period 1961–2014 by looking at surface downwelling shortwave radiation (SDSR). We used observations from ground stations as well as multiple experiments from eight ESMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 6 (CMIP6). Our results show that this subset of models reproduces the observed transient SDSR well in Europe but poorly in China. We suggest that this may be attributed to missing emissions of sulfur dioxide in China, sulfur dioxide being a precursor to sulfate, which is a highly reflective aerosol and responsible for more reflective clouds. The emissions of sulfur dioxide used in the models do not show a temporal pattern that could explain observed SDSR evolution over China. The results from various aerosol emission perturbation experiments from DAMIP, RFMIP and AerChemMIP show that only simulations containing anthropogenic aerosol emissions show dimming, even if the dimming is underestimated. Simulated clear-sky and all-sky SDSR do not differ greatly, suggesting that cloud cover changes are not a dominant cause of the biased SDSR evolution in the simulations. Therefore we suggest that the discrepancy between modeled and observed SDSR evolution is partly caused by erroneous aerosol and aerosol precursor emission inventories. This is an important finding as it may help interpret whether ESMs reproduce the historical climate evolution for the right or wrong reason.

surface downwelling shortwave radiation (SDSR)↗
NASA NTRS1994

A three-dimensional transport model for the middle atmosphere

In this paper we describe fundamental properties of an 'off-line' three-dimensional transport model, that is, a model which uses prescribed rather than predicted winds. The model is currently used primarily for studying problems of the middle atmosphere because we have not (yet) incorporated a formulation for the convective transport of trace species, a prerequisite for many tropospheric problems. The off-line model is simpler and less expensive than a model which predicts the wind and mass evolution (an 'on-line' model), but it is more complex than the two-dimensional (2-D) zonally averaged transport models often used in the study of chemistry and transport in the middle atmosphere. It thus serves as a model of intermediate complexity and can fill a useful niche for the study of transport and chemistry. We compare simulations of four tracers, released in the lower stratosphere, in both the on- and off-line models to document the difference resulting from differences in modeling the same problem with this intermediate model. These differences identify the price to be paid in going to a cheaper and simpler calculation. The off-line model transports a tracer in three dimensions. For this reason, it requires fewer approximations than 2-D transport model, which must parameterize the effects of mixing by transient and zonally asymmetric wind features. We compare simulations of the off-line model with simulations of a 2-D model for two problems. First, we compare 2-D and three-dimensional (3-D) models by simulating the emission of an NO(x)-like tracer by a fleet of high-speed aircraft. The off-line model is then used to simulate the transport of C-14 and to contrast its simulation properties to that of the host of 2-D models which participated in an identical simulation in a recent NASA model intercomparison. The off-line model is shown to be somewhat sensitive to the sampling strategy for off-line winds. Simulations with daily averaged winds are in very good qualitative agreement but are less diffusive than when driven with instantaneous winds sampled at half-hour intervals. Simulations with the off-line and 2-D models are quite similar in the middle and upper stratosphere but behave quite differently in the lower stratosphere, where the 3-D model has a substantially more vigorous circulation. The off-line model is quite realistic in its simulation of C-14. While there are still systematic differences between the 3-D calculation and the observations, the differences seem to be substantially reduced when compared with the body of 2-D simulations documented in the above mentioned NASA intercomparison, particularly at 31 deg N.

Rasch, Philip J.↗