Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Model interpretation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9

Mshock HED Council Request FY24 [Slides]

ICF and HEDP experiments experience complicated loadings including successive shocks, but modeling and analytic work has mostly engaged the simpler shock or shock-reshock case. This is because the co propagating case is difficult to achieve with conventional (non-HED) drivers. Successive shocks will be challenging to model in BHR or modal model interpretations: 1) Ex: Consider the case where long wavelength modes re-invert coherently, but short wavelength nonlinear modes are spun up turbulently. 2) Necessitates more advanced diagnostics and analysis than simple “mixing layers.” High resolution spectral information (concomitant with Ω-EP campaigns) and higher-order moment analyses will be necessary to stress and validate the reduced BHR-type models.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Fast and interpretable classification of small X-ray diffraction datasets using data augmentation and deep neural networks

X-ray diffraction (XRD) data acquisition and analysis is among the most time-consuming steps in the development cycle of novel thin-film materials. We propose a machine-learning-enabled approach to predict crystallographic dimensionality and space group from a limited number of thin-film XRD patterns. We overcome the scarce-data problem intrinsic to novel materials development by coupling a supervised machine learning approach with a model-agnostic, physics-informed data augmentation strategy using simulated data from the Inorganic Crystal Structure Database (ICSD) and experimental data. As a test case, 115 thin-film metal-halides spanning 3 dimensionalities and 7 space-groups are synthesized and classified. After testing various algorithms, we develop and implement an all convolutional neural network, with cross-validated accuracies for dimensionality and space-group classification of 93% and 89%, respectively. We propose average class activation maps, computed from a global average pooling layer, to allow high model interpretability by human experimentalists, elucidating the root-causes of misclassification. Finally, we systematically evaluate the maximum XRD pattern step size (data acquisition rate) before loss of predictive accuracy occurs, and determine it to be 0.16° 2θ, which enables an XRD pattern to be obtained and classified in 5.5 minutes or less.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Sub-pilot-scale Production of High-Value Products from U.S. Coals

Investigators from the University of Utah, University of Wyoming and Marshall University pursued a program to study the conversion of raw coal to high-value products of carbon fiber and silicon carbide. Team members also developed an initial framework for a data portal that can incorporate laboratory data on coal processing and product quality, and also work with tools for machine learning for data analysis, data visualization and economic assessment. Experimental R&D efforts focused on the conversion of raw coal to coal tar and other byproducts, and the resulting tar intermediates were upgraded to form anisotropic and isotropic pitch materials. These pitch materials were produced from coal using both thermal (pyrolysis) and chemical (mild solvolysis liquefaction) decomposition of raw coal. Four different coals were studied: Utah bituminous coal (Sufco), Wyoming PRB coal (Black Thunder), Illinois bituminous coal (Illinois #6), and West Virginia bituminous coal (Flying Eagle). Both metallurgical-grade coking coals and lower-grade steam coals were investigated, and controlled secondary gas-phase reactions were used during a two-stage pyrolysis process to induce cracking and condensation reactions among the pyrolytic tar species. This approach successfully improved the performance of the lower grade coals for yielding pitch materials, with properties more consistent with a commercial-grade pitch that had previously demonstrated success for quality carbon fiber production. The use of waste plastic materials was also studied, to help improve physical and chemical characteristics of the intermediate tars and final pitch product; in particular, for lowering the pitch softening point to an acceptable level for melt spinning carbon fiber. Mild solvolysis liquefaction was also used as a method for producing pitch for carbon fiber production. As expected, significantly higher pitch yields were obtained using this approach, and waste plastic materials were also successfully used to reduce pitch softening point to an acceptable level. The plastic materials were also utilized to create a solvent for the mild solvolysis process, and this plastic-derived solvent was shown to provide results consistent with more expensive commercial chemical solvents, and could thus avoid the need for costly recovery and recycle of a liquefaction solvent. Additional experimental R&D focused on the production of silicon carbide (β-SiC) from the residual char byproduct from pitch production, and also on the production of carbon fiber from the anisotropic pitch. SiC was successfully synthesized using a mixture of residual char and sandstone at a ratio of 1:1. Reaction temperature and residence time were optimized and yielded a product purity of 81%. For carbon fiber production, the most successful pitch samples were obtained from the mild solvolysis liquefaction approach, combined with the use of a plastic (HDPE)-derived solvent. Fiber properties improved over time as laboratory fiber production methodologies improved, and final yields of carbon fiber were obtained with a diameter of 12.14 ± 1.10 um, Modulus of 173.73 ± 15.25 GPa, and Tensile Strength of 1.04 ± 0.10 GPa. A proof-of-concept Modern Community Research Data Portal (MCRDP) was developed and deployed for coal and coal-derived pitch characterization, with the full support of (i) remote web-based access, (ii) distributed analysis, (iii) interactive visualization and exploration, (iv) shared and long-term data access, (v) advanced query capabilities and (vi) real-time collaboration. The Coal to Products Data Portal “coaltoproducts.org” provides researchers with space to store and share data within a project, tools for analyzing and understanding data for scientific investigation, and the ability to publish data to the broader community for reproducibility. The portal leverages the Material Commons 2.0 (MC) platform developed by the Center for PRedictive Integrated Structural Materials Science (PRISMS) of the University of Michigan, to achieve long-term longevity of data collections and, more importantly, collaborative science. A number of data visualization tools were also assessed and implemented for interrogating the experimental and modeling data. The machine learning portion of this project analyzed datasets from two different coal conversion processes performed on a diverse set of coal samples from both the coal pyrolysis experiments and the solvent liquefaction experiments. The work was initiated by exploring standard regression models on the pyrolysis data, aiming to understand the impact of sample characteristics and processing conditions on key product metrics. Over the course of the project, the focus expanded to include a variety of machine learning tools, delving into both supervised and unsupervised learning methods. Models tested on the pyrolysis data included linear, ridge, lasso, elastic-net, Gaussian process, random forest regression, and AutoSklearn, and the approach was continually refined to enhance predictive accuracy and model interpretability. Similar techniques were applied to the liquefaction data with an additional focus on feature engineering. Along with mesophase content, additional outputs of interest were the pitch yield, softening point, and QI content. Insights derived from these analyses are crucial in determining the factors influencing the quality and yield of coal-derived products. As the work progressed, the research evolved from foundational model comparisons to analyses of random forests, decision paths, and feature importance scores. A thorough market analysis was performed to examine the prospects of coal-based carbon fibers. The best opportunities for coal come from its lower and more stable price relative to petroleum, particularly for subbituminous coals, which is the primary advantage that a coal refinery may have over a petroleum refinery. Before a commercial CTP production facility can be modeled, however, several things need to be understood regarding the nature of the would-be coal refinery. These include the technology to be deployed, the size of facility, the volume(s) of co-product(s), and the waste and emissions profile of the plant. The volume of co-products and waste may be substantial and will require separate market analysis to ensure viability. In the near-term, the importance of coal tar pitch, in the form of carbon pitch, to the aluminum and steel industries is likely to overshadow the alternative use of this material as an input for carbon fiber. The importance of steel and aluminum in building materials, and the need for carbon materials in their manufacturing, will ensure that demand for these products remains for the long run. In addition, carbon fiber may also be the best substitute for steel and aluminum well into the future. While society will eventually be able to shift production of much of its electricity needs to renewables, it will not be able to shift away from fossil fuels for production of high-strength construction and vehicular materials. Demand for carbon fiber is expected to increase quickly, but the volume of carbon fiber and the amount of coal that would be needed to produce even a sizeable share of this market may still be relatively small compared to current coal production. Thus, other coal-based products like graphene, graphite, carbon foams, resins, and carbon-based building products will play important roles in sustaining coal production as coal-fired power generation continues to decline.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

The impulsive hard X-rays from solar flares

A technique for determining the physical arrangement of a solar flare during the impulsive phase was developed based upon a nonthermal model interpretation of the emitted hard X-rays. Accurate values are obtained for the flare parameters, including those which describe the magnetic field structure and the beaming of the energetic electrons, parameters which have hitherto been mostly inaccessible. The X-ray intensity height structure can be described readily with a single expression based upon a semi-empirical fit to the results from many models. Results show that the degree of linear polarization of the X-rays from a flaring loop does not exceed 25 percent and can easily and naturally be as low as the polarization expected from a thermal model. This is a highly significant result in that it supersedes those based upon less thorough calculations of the electron beam dynamics and requires that a reevaluation of hopes of using polarization measurements to discriminate between categories of flare models.

Leach, J.↗

Fault friction, regional stress, and crust-mantle coupling in southern California from finite element models

To determine the correct fault rheology of the Transverse Ranges area of California, a new finite element to represent faults and a mangle drag element are introduced into a set of 63 simulation models of anelastic crustal strain. It is shown that a slip rate weakening rheology for faults is not valid in California. Assuming that mantle drag effects on the crust's base are minimal, the optimal coefficient of friction in the seismogenic portion of the fault zones is 0.4-0.6 (less than Byerly's law assumed to apply elsewhere). Depending on how the southern California upper mantle seismic velocity anomaly is interpreted, model results are improved or degraded. It is found that the location of the mantle plate boundary is the most important secondary parameter, and that the best model is either a low-stress model (fault friction = 0.3) or a high-stress model (fault friction = 0.85), each of which has strong mantel drag. It is concluded that at least the fastest moving faults in southern California have a low friction coefficient (approximtely 0.3) because they contain low strength hydrated clay gouges throughout the low-temperature seismogenic zone.

Bird, P.↗

SODAs: sparse optimization for the discovery of differential and algebraic equations

Differential-algebraic equations (DAEs) integrate ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with algebraic constraints, providing a fundamental framework for developing models of dynamical systems characterized by time-scale separation, conservation laws and physical constraints. While sparse optimization has revolutionized model development by allowing data-driven discovery of parsimonious models from a library of possible equations, existing approaches for dynamical systems assume DAEs can be reduced to ODEs by eliminating variables before model discovery. This assumption limits the applicability of such methods for DAE systems with unknown constraints and time scales. We introduce sparse optimization for differential-algebraic systems (SODAs), a data-driven method for the identification of DAEs in their explicit form. By discovering the algebraic and dynamic components sequentially without prior identification of the algebraic variables, this approach leads to a sequence of convex optimization problems. It has the advantage of discovering interpretable models that preserve the structure of the underlying physical system. To this end, SODAs improves since SODAs is singular numerical stability when handling high correlations between library terms, caused by near-perfect algebraic relationships, by iteratively refining the conditioning of the candidate library. We demonstrate the performance of our method on biological, mechanical and electrical systems, showcasing its robustness to noise in both simulated time series and real-time experimental data.

DAE↗

Predictive models of the genetic bases underlying budding yeast fitness in multiple environments

Abstract The ability of organisms to adapt and survive depends on the effects of genes and the environment on fitness. However, the multigenic nature of fitness and genotype-by-environment interactions hinder our understanding of the genetic basis of fitness. Here, we established fitness prediction models for 35 environments using machine learning and existing fitness data and different genetic variant types for a Saccharomyces cerevisiae population. Models revealed that the predictive ability of genetic variants varied across environments, with copy number variants explaining the majority of fitness variation in most cases. Model interpretation showed that different variant types identified distinct gene sets associated with predictive variants. These gene sets were significantly enriched in experimentally validated genes affecting fitness in only a subset of environments, indicating that many genes influencing fitness remain unexplored. Notably, non-experimentally validated genes were more important than validated ones for fitness predictions. Gene contributions to predictions were both isolate- and environment-dependent, pointing to gene-by-gene and gene-by-environment interactions. Furthermore, models uncovered experimentally validated and novel candidate genetic interactions for a well-characterized stress, the fungicide benomyl. These findings highlight the feasibility of identifying the genetic basis of fitness by using different genetic variant types and offer novel targets for future functional analysis.

DNA copy number variations↗

Discovering nuclear models from symbolic machine learning

Numerous phenomenological nuclear models have been proposed to describe specific observables within different regions of the nuclear chart. However, developing a unified model that describes the complex behavior of all nuclei remains an open challenge. Here, we explore whether symbolic Machine Learning (ML) can rediscover traditional nuclear physics models or identify alternatives with improved simplicity, fidelity, and predictive power. To address this challenge, we developed a Multi-objective Iterated Symbolic Regression approach that handles symbolic regressions over multiple target observables, accounts for experimental uncertainties and is robust against high-dimensional problems. As a proof of principle, we applied this method to describe the nuclear binding energies and charge radii of light and medium mass nuclei. Our approach identified simple analytical relationships based on the number of protons and neutrons, providing interpretable models with precision comparable to state-of-the-art nuclear models. Additionally, we integrated this ML-discovered model with an existing complementary model to estimate the limits of nuclear stability. These results highlight the potential of symbolic ML to develop accurate nuclear models and guide our description of complex many-body problems.

Nuclear structure↗

The calculation of theoretical chromospheric models and the interpretation of solar spectra from rockets and spacecraft

Models and spectra of sunspots were studied, because they are important to energy balance and variability discussions. Sunspot observations in the ultraviolet region 140 to 168 nn was obtained by the NRL High Resolution Telescope and Spectrograph. Extensive photometric observations of sunspot umbrae and prenumbrae in 10 chanels covering the wavelength region 387 to 3800 nm were made. Cool star opacities and model atmospheres were computed. The Sun is the first testcase, both to check the opacity calculations against the observed solar spectrum, and to check the purely theoretical model calculation against the observed solar energy distribution. Line lists were finally completed for all the molecules that are important in computing statistical opacities for energy balance and for radiative rate calculations in the Sun (except perhaps for sunspots). Because many of these bands are incompletely analyzed in the laboratory, the energy levels are not well enough known to predict wavelengths accurately for spectrum synthesis and for detailed comparison with the observations.

Avrett, E. H.↗

Fouling modeling and prediction approach for heat exchangers using deep learning

In this article, we develop a generalized and scalable statistical model for accurate prediction of fouling resistance using commonly measured parameters of industrial heat exchangers. This prediction model is based on deep learning where a scalable algorithmic architecture learns non-linear functional relationships between a set of target and predictor variables from large number of training samples. Here, the efficacy of this modeling approach is demonstrated for predicting fouling in an analytically modeled cross-flow heat exchanger, designed for waste heat recovery from flue-gas using room temperature water. The performance results of the trained models demonstrate that the mean absolute prediction errors are under 10 –4 KW –1 for flue-gas side, water side and overall fouling resistances. The coefficients of determination (R 2 ), which characterize the goodness of fit between the predictions and observed data, are over 99%. Even under varying levels of measurement noise in the inputs, we demonstrate that predictions over an ensemble of multiple neural networks achieves better accuracy and robustness to noise. We find that the proposed deep-learning fouling prediction framework learns to follow heat exchanger flow and heat transfer physics, which we confirm using locally interpretable model agnostic explanations around randomly selected operating points. Overall, we provide a robust algorithmic framework for fouling prediction that can be generalized and scaled to various types of industrial heat exchangers.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Evaluation of Portable Programming Models to Accelerate LArTPC Detector Simulations

The Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) technology is widely used in high energy physics experiments, including the upcoming Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). Accurately simulating LArTPC detector responses is essential for analysis algorithm development and physics model interpretations. Accurate LArTPC detector response simulations are computationally demanding, and can become a bottleneck in the analysis workflow. Compute devices such as General-Purpose Graphics Processing Units (GPGPUs) have the potential to substantially accelerate simulations compared to traditional CPU-only processing. The software development that requires often carries the cost of specialized code refactorization and porting to match the target hardware architecture. With the rapid evolution and increased diversity of the computer architecture landscape, it is highly desirable to have a portable solution that also maintains reasonable performance. We report our ongoing effort in evaluating Kokkos as a basis for this portable programming model using LArTPC simulations in the context of the Wire-Cell Toolkit, a C++ library for LArTPC simulations, data analysis, reconstruction and visualization.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Evaluation of Portable Programming Models to Accelerate LArTPC Detector Simulations

The Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) technology is widely used in high energy physics experiments, including the upcoming Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). Accurately simulating LArTPC detector responses is essential for analysis algorithm development and physics model interpretations. Accurate LArTPC detector response simulations are computationally demanding, and can become a bottleneck in the analysis workflow. Compute devices such as General-Purpose Graphics Processing Units (GPGPUs) have the potential to substantially accelerate simulations compared to traditional CPU-only processing. The software development for these compute accelerators often carries the cost of specialized code refactorization and porting to match the target hardware architecture. With the rapid evolution and increased diversity of the computer architecture landscape, it is highly desirable to have a portable solution that also maintains reasonable performance. We report our ongoing effort in evaluating Kokkos as a basis for this portable programming model using LArTPC simulations in the context of the Wire-Cell Toolkit, a C++ library for LArTPC simulations, data analysis, reconstruction and visualization.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The magnetic anomaly of the Ivreazone

A magnetic field survey was made in the Ivreazone in 1969/70. The results were: significant anomaly of the vertical intensity is found. It follows the basic main part of the Ivrea-Verbano zone and continues to the south. The width of the anomaly is about 10 km, the maximum measures about +800 gamma. The model interpretation shows that possibly the anomaly belongs to an amphibolitic body, which in connection with the Ivrea-body was found by deep seismic sounding. Therefore, the magnetic anomaly provides further evidence for the conception that the Ivrea-body has to be regarded as a chip of earthmantle material pushed upward by tectonic processes.

Vertical Intensity of Magnetic Field↗

Adjustments to the law of the wall above an Amazon forest explained by a spectral link

Modification to the law of the wall represented by a dimensionless correction function ϕ RSL (z/h) is derived using atmospheric turbulence measurements collected at two sites in the Amazon in near-neutral stratification, where z is the distance from the forest floor and h is the mean canopy height. The sites are the Amazon Tall Tower Observatory for z/h∈ [1,2.3] and the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon) site for z/h∈ [1,1.4]. Here, a link between the vertical velocity spectrum E ww (k) (k is the longitudinal wavenumber) and ϕ RSL is then established using a co-spectral budget (CSB) model interpreted by the moving-equilibrium hypothesis. The key finding is that ϕ RSL is determined by the ratio of two turbulent viscosities and is given as ν t,BL /ν t,RSL, where ν t,RSL = (1/A)∫$^{∞}_{0}$ τ(k)E ww (k)dk, ν t,BL = k v (z−d)u * , τ(k) is a scale-dependent decorrelation time scale between velocity components, A = C R /(1−C I ) = 4.5 is predicted from the Rotta constant C R = 1.8, and the isotropization of production constant C I = 3/5 given by rapid distortion theory, k v is the von Kármán constant, u * is the friction velocity at the canopy top, and d is the zero-plane displacement. Because the transfer of energy across scales is conserved in E ww (k) and is determined by the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate (ε), the CSB model also predicts that ϕ RSL scales with L BL /L d , where L BL is the length scale of attached eddies to z = d, and L d = u$_{*}^{3}$/ε is a macro-scale dissipation length.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Surrogate model evaluation and building energy benchmarking for commercial buildings

Building energy consumption benchmarking involves challenges associated with various energy patterns for different building types; heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system types; and climates. Given significant variation in energy use patterns, accurate prediction of long-term energy use using surrogate models remains challenging. Multiple linear regression (MLR) is commonly used for building energy benchmarking because of its simple structure; however, it lacks accuracy compared to other black-box models. Although many studies have compared surrogate models and offer guidance on model selection based on metrics, they do not provide detailed analysis on improving the surrogate model accuracy. In this paper, we implement a surrogate model using polynomial ridge regression (i.e., MLR with interaction terms combined with ridge regularization) for small office and retail strip mall buildings across six HVAC system types and all climate zones, for electricity and natural gas in baseline and proposed scenarios. A simulation workflow is developed using OpenStudio TM /EnergyPlus TM to generate simulation data using measures over a wide range of efficiency inputs. Enhancements based on statistical insights are used for improving the model accuracy using filters, input transformations, and change points. Surrogate models achieved average coefficient of variation of the root mean squared error (CVRMSE) values of 2.17, 1.06, 2.05, and 3.26 for proposed electricity, proposed natural gas, baseline electricity, and baseline natural gas, respectively, with enhancements reducing CVRMSE by an average of 14.9% across all combinations. We provide model interpretation via Shapley additive explanations to determine which input variables most influence energy consumption and provide supportive arguments for enhancements.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Special Issue: Geostatistics and Machine Learning

Abstract Recent years have seen a steady growth in the number of papers that apply machine learning methods to problems in the earth sciences. Although they have different origins, machine learning and geostatistics share concepts and methods. For example, the kriging formalism can be cast in the machine learning framework of Gaussian process regression. Machine learning, with its focus on algorithms and ability to seek, identify, and exploit hidden structures in big data sets, is providing new tools for exploration and prediction in the earth sciences. Geostatistics, on the other hand, offers interpretable models of spatial (and spatiotemporal) dependence. This special issue on Geostatistics and Machine Learning aims to investigate applications of machine learning methods as well as hybrid approaches combining machine learning and geostatistics which advance our understanding and predictive ability of spatial processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Transdisciplinary Review of Deep Learning Research and Its Relevance for Water Resources Scientists

Deep learning (DL), a new generation of artificial neural network research, has transformed industries, daily lives, and various scientific disciplines in recent years. DL represents significant progress in the ability of neural networks to automatically engineer problem-relevant features and capture highly complex data distributions. I argue that DL can help address several major new and old challenges facing research in water sciences such as interdisciplinarity, data discoverability, hydrologic scaling, equifinality, and needs for parameter regionalization. This review paper is intended to provide water resources scientists and hydrologists in particular with a simple technical overview, transdisciplinary progress update, and a source of inspiration about the relevance of DL to water. The review reveals that various physical and geoscientific disciplines have utilized DL to address data challenges, improve efficiency, and gain scientific insights. DL is especially suited for information extraction from image-like data and sequential data. Techniques and experiences presented in other disciplines are of high relevance to water research. Meanwhile, less noticed is that DL may also serve as a scientific exploratory tool. A new area termed AI neuroscience , where scientists interpret the decision process of deep networks and derive insights, has been born. This budding subdiscipline has demonstrated methods including correlation-based analysis, inversion of network-extracted features, reduced-order approximations by interpretable models, and attribution of network decisions to inputs. Moreover, DL can also use data to condition neurons that mimic problem-specific fundamental organizing units, thus revealing emergent behaviors of these units. Vast opportunities exist for DL to propel advances in water sciences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Rapid design of top-performing metal-organic frameworks with qualitative representations of building blocks

Abstract Data-driven materials design often encounters challenges where systems possess qualitative (categorical) information. Specifically, representing Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) through different building blocks poses a challenge for designers to incorporate qualitative information into design optimization, and leads to a combinatorial challenge, with large number of MOFs that could be explored. In this work, we integrated Latent Variable Gaussian Process (LVGP) and Multi-Objective Batch-Bayesian Optimization (MOBBO) to identify top-performing MOFs adaptively, autonomously, and efficiently. We showcased that our method (i) requires no specific physical descriptors and only uses building blocks that construct the MOFs for global optimization through qualitative representations, (ii) is application and property independent, and (iii) provides an interpretable model of building blocks with physical justification. By searching only ~1% of the design space, LVGP-MOBBO identified all MOFs on the Pareto front and 97% of the 50 top-performing designs for the CO 2 working capacity and CO 2 /N 2 selectivity properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗