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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Optimizing Renewable Ammonia Production for a Sustainable Fertilizer Supply Chain Transition

Local renewable ammonia production using electrolytic hydrogen is an emerging approach to alleviate emissions attributed to synthetic nitrogen fertilizer production while also insulating against fluctuations in fertilizer prices and mitigating transportation costs and emissions. However, replacing ammonia currently produced using fossil fuels will not be immediate. To this end, we develop a supply chain transition model, which first optimizes the design and hourly operation of new renewable ammonia facilities to minimize production costs and then optimizes the annual installation timing, production scale, and location of these new renewable facilities along with ammonia transportation to meet county resolution demands. The objective is to augment and eventually replace conventional ammonia market imports in an economically competitive manner. We performed a case study for Minnesota's ammonia supply chain and found that a full transition to in-state renewable production by 2032 is optimal. This is incentivized by the U.S. federal government's clean hydrogen production credits. This transition results in 99 % reduction in carbon intensity along with stable supply costs below $475 per metric tonne. New renewable production facilities are an order of magnitude smaller than existing conventional plants. They use both wind and solar resources and operate dynamically to minimize expensive battery and hydrogen storage capacities.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cluster spin glass correlations and dynamics in Zn 0.5⁢ Mn 0.5⁢ Te

Here, we present a combined magnetometry, muon spin-relaxation (𝜇⁢SR), and neutron-scattering study of the insulating spin glass Zn 0.5 ⁢Mn 0.5 ⁢Te, for which magnetic Mn 2+ and nonmagnetic Zn 2+ ions are randomly distributed on a face-centered cubic lattice. The magnetometry and 𝜇⁢SR results confirm a spin freezing transition around 𝑇 𝑓 ≈ 23 K, with the spin-fluctuation rate decreasing gradually and somewhat inhomogeneously through the sample volume as the temperature decreases toward 𝑇 𝑓 . Characteristic spin-correlation times well above 𝑇 𝑓 are on the order of 10 −10 s, much slower than typically observed in canonical spin glasses but in line with expectations for a cluster spin glass. Using magnetic pair distribution function (mPDF) analysis and reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) modeling of the magnetic diffuse neutron-scattering data, we show that the spin-glass ground state consists of clusters of spins exhibiting short-range-ordered type-III antiferromagnetic correlations with a locally ordered moment of 3.1⁢(1)⁢𝜇 B between nearest-neighbor spins. The type-III correlations decay exponentially as a function of spin separation distance with a correlation length of approximately 5 Å. The diffuse magnetic scattering and corresponding mPDF show no significant changes across 𝑇 𝑓 , indicating that the dynamically fluctuating short-range spin correlations in the paramagnetic state retain the same basic type-III configuration that characterizes the spin-glass state; the only change apparent from the neutron-scattering data is a gradual reduction of the correlation length and locally ordered moment with increasing temperature. Taken together, these results paint a unique and detailed picture of the local magnetic structure and dynamics in Zn 0.5 ⁢Mn 0.5⁢ Te and provide strong evidence that this material is best described as a cluster spin glass. In addition, this work showcases a statistical method for extracting diffuse scattering signals from neutron powder diffraction data, which we developed to facilitate the mPDF and RMC analysis of the neutron data. This method has the potential to be broadly useful for neutron powder diffraction experiments on a variety of materials with short-range atomic or magnetic order.

magnetism↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mapping Spiking Neural Networks to Heterogeneous Crossbar Architectures using Integer Linear Programming

Advances in novel hardware devices and architectures allow Spiking Neural Network (SNN) evaluation using ultra-low power, mixed-signal, memristor crossbar arrays. As individual network sizes quickly scale beyond the dimensional capabilities of single crossbars, networks must be mapped onto multiple crossbars. Crossbar sizes within modern Memristor Crossbar Architectures (MCAs) are determined predominately not by device technology but by network topology; more, smaller crossbars consume less area thanks to the high structural sparsity found in larger, brain-inspired SNNs. Motivated by continuing increases in SNN sparsity due to improvements in training methods, we propose utilizing heterogeneous crossbar sizes to further reduce area consumption. This approach was previously unachievable as prior compiler studies only explored solutions targeting homogeneous MCAs. Our work improves on the state-of-the-art by providing Integer Linear Programming (ILP) formulations supporting arbitrarily heterogeneous architectures. By modeling axonal interactions between neurons, our methods produce better mappings while removing inhibitive a priori knowledge requirements. We first show a 16.7-27.6% reduction in area consumption for square-crossbar homogeneous architectures. Then, we demonstrate 66.9-72.7% further reduction when using a reasonable configuration of heterogeneous crossbar dimensions. Next, we present a new optimization formulation capable of minimizing the number of inter-crossbar routes. When applied to solutions already near-optimal in area, an 11.9-26.4% routing reduction is observed without impacting area consumption. Finally, we present a profile-guided optimization capable of minimizing the number of runtime spikes between crossbars. Compared to the best-area-then-route optimized solutions, we observe a further 0.5-14.8% inter-crossbar spike reduction while requiring 1–3 orders of magnitude less solver time.

Pohl, Devin [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000040149027)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Isomerization kinetics of azobenzene crosslinked to a liquid crystal polymer network

Azobenzene is an important chromophore having numerous applications that are a direct implication of its ability to change shape upon irradiation with a suitable wavelength. Here, in this study, photoisomerization kinetics of a diacrylate azobenzene molecule (A3MA) cross-linked to a liquid crystal polymer network (LCN) is investigated. Isomerization experiments were conducted on planar LCN thin films with varying cross-linking densities for a fixed azobenzene concentration. The experiments were conducted at approximately 26 °C, which is significantly below each film’s glass transition temperature. The forward trans-cis and reverse cis-trans isomerization slows down in crosslinked azobenzene liquid crystal polymer networks (ALCNs) as compared to a solution and an uncrosslinked polymer mixture. The observed slowdown is due to the reduction in the free volume and increased steric hindrances with an increase in crosslinking. A single-term first-order kinetics rate equation is known to describe the isomerization kinetics in solutions or uncrosslinked mixtures while the same form fails to represent the reaction kinetics in moderate to highly cross-linked ALCNs. Our results for the first time indicate that a two-term first-order reaction rate is an accurate way to describe the forward trans-cis and reverse thermal cis-trans isomerization in crosslinked azobenzene liquid crystal polymer networks. In addition, the effect of film thickness and incident intensities on the reaction kinetics is investigated. Finally, the two-term isomerization kinetics is incorporated into a finite element photo-chemo-mechanical model to reveal the consequent slowdown in the actuation response of ALCN films. The current findings will be of particular interest to theoreticians and experimentalists alike, for it will help predict and understand accurately the responses of azobenzene-based coatings, and actuators and may have potential applications in underwater soft robotics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Cascade Effectiveness of 3-Terminal Tandem Photocathode Architectures as Applied to CO 2 Reduction

Cascade catalysis for photoelectrochemical CO 2 reduction (CO 2 R) decouples the overall reaction into sequential steps occurring on separately optimized catalysts (for example, Ag and Cu) between which an intermediate species such as CO is transferred. A 3-terminal tandem (3TT) photovoltaic architecture advantageously holds two different catalytic regions at different potentials under a single illumination source, but its overall efficiency is low. Using a stochastic reaction-diffusion model, we have examined 3TT photocathode design principles, focusing on the coupling of surface chemistry and transport of CO both inside the boundary layer and outward, into the bulk electrolyte. We find that ensuring that the lateral diffusion distance within the boundary layer is short compared to the boundary layer thickness and controlling bulk flow are key, with interdigitated designs showing an overall conversion efficiency improvement by 2 orders of magnitude compared to the side-by-side case without flow. These findings can be adapted for other cascaded architectures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Correlation-aware binning for small-angle neutron scattering via Gaussian-process inference

Binning in small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) is typically performed empirically, with fixed parameters chosen for convenience rather than statistical optimality. Such practices often fail to balance statistical precision and spatial resolution, leading to inconsistencies across instruments and datasets. Here we establish a correlation-aware framework that determines the optimal bin width from first principles by extending the classical Freedman–Diaconis (FD) rule to account for inter-bin correlations with a Gaussian process. In this formulation, the scattering intensity is treated as a smooth stochastic field whose statistical coherence is described by a covariance matrix. Analytical expressions of errors derived from this model yield closed-form criteria that separate the total deviation into contributions from counting noise, aliasing distortion and curvature-dependent correlation effects. Expressed in reduced variables, the resulting dimensionless error surface reveals a continuous transition from the uncorrelated FD regime to the correlation-dominated limit, providing a unified description of noise suppression and resolution control. Because the formulation depends only on the profile characteristics of scattering intensity I(Q), specifically its average intensity and first- and second-order derivatives, it applies generally to any SANS measurement regardless of sample, instrument or geometry. Experimental validation using small- and ultra-small-angle neutron scattering data confirms the predicted scaling behavior, demonstrating that correlation-aware inference systematically reduces mean-squared error and enables information-efficient reproducible data reduction across materials and instruments.

Tung, Chi-Huan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000221972074)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Informative and non-informative decomposition of turbulent flow fields

Not all the information in a turbulent field is relevant for understanding particular regions or variables in the flow. Here, we present a method for decomposing a source field into its informative Φ I (x, t) and residual Φ R (x, t) components relative to another target field. The method is referred to as informative and non-informative decomposition (IND). All the necessary information for physical understanding, reduced-order modelling and control of the target variable is contained in Φ I (x, t), whereas Φ R (x, t) offers no substantial utility in these contexts. The decomposition is formulated as an optimisation problem that seeks to maximise the time-lagged mutual information of the informative component with the target variable while minimising the mutual information with the residual component. The method is applied to extract the informative and residual components of the velocity field in a turbulent channel flow, using the wall shear stress as the target variable. We demonstrate the utility of IND in three scenarios: (i) physical insight into the effect of the velocity fluctuations on the wall shear stress; (ii) prediction of the wall shear stress using velocities far from the wall; and (iii) development of control strategies for drag reduction in a turbulent channel flow using opposition control. In case (i), IND reveals that the informative velocity related to wall shear stress consists of wall-attached high- and low-velocity streaks, collocated with regions of vertical motions and weak spanwise velocity. This informative structure is embedded within a larger-scale streak–roll structure of residual velocity, which bears no information about the wall shear stress. In case (ii), the best-performing model for predicting wall shear stress is a convolutional neural network that uses the informative component of the velocity as input, while the residual velocity component provides no predictive capabilities. Finally, in case (iii), we demonstrate that the informative component of the wall-normal velocity is closely linked to the observability of the target variable and holds the essential information needed to develop successful control strategies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Task-oriented machine learning surrogates for tipping points of agent-based models

We present a machine learning framework bridging manifold learning, neural networks, Gaussian processes, and Equation-Free multiscale approach, for the construction of different types of effective reduced order models from detailed agent-based simulators and the systematic multiscale numerical analysis of their emergent dynamics. The specific tasks of interest here include the detection of tipping points, and the uncertainty quantification of rare events near them. Our illustrative examples are an event-driven, stochastic financial market model describing the mimetic behavior of traders, and a compartmental stochastic epidemic model on an Erdös-Rényi network. We contrast the pros and cons of the different types of surrogate models and the effort involved in learning them. Importantly, the proposed framework reveals that, around the tipping points, the emergent dynamics of both benchmark examples can be effectively described by a one-dimensional stochastic differential equation, thus revealing the intrinsic dimensionality of the normal form of the specific type of the tipping point. This allows a significant reduction in the computational cost of the tasks of interest.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Toward Spatial Control of Reaction Selectivity on Photocatalysts Using Area-Selective Atomic Layer Deposition on the Model Dual Site Electrocatalyst Platform

Photocatalytic water splitting is a promising route to low-cost, green H 2 . However, this approach is currently limited in its solar-to-hydrogen conversion efficiency. One major source of efficiency loss is attributed to the high rates of undesired side and back reactions, which are exacerbated by the proximity of neighboring oxidation and reduction sites. Nanoscopic oxide coatings have previously been used to selectively block undesired reactants from reaching active sites; however, a coating encapsulating the entire photocatalyst particle limits activity as it cannot facilitate both half-reactions. In this work, area selective atomic layer deposition (AS-ALD) was used to selectively deposit semipermeable TiO 2 films onto model metallic cocatalysts for enhancing reaction selectivity while maintaining a high overall activity. Pt and Au were used as exemplary reduction and oxidation cocatalyst sites, respectively, where Au was deactivated toward ALD growth through self-assembled thiol monolayers while TiO 2 was coated onto Pt sites. Electroanalytical measurements of monometallic thin film electrodes showed that the TiO 2 -encapsulated Pt effectively suppressed undesired H 2 oxidation and Fe(II)/Fe(III) redox reactions while still permitting the desired hydrogen evolution reaction (HER). A planar model photocatalyst platform containing patterned interdigitated arrays of Au and Pt microelectrodes was further assessed using scanning electrochemical microscopy (SECM), demonstrating the successful use of AS-ALD to enable local reaction selectivity in a dual-reaction-site (photo)electrocatalytic system. Finally, interdigitated microelectrodes having independent potential control were used to show that selectively deposited TiO 2 coatings can suppress the rate of back reactions on neighboring active sites by an order of magnitude compared with uncoated control samples.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

When to vaccinate for seasonal influenza: check the peak forecast

Background Seasonal influenza infects 5-20% of people every year in the United States, resulting in hospitalizations, deaths, and adverse economic impacts. To mitigate these impacts, influenza vaccines are developed and distributed annually; however, growing evidence suggests that vaccine effectiveness (VE) wanes over the course of a flu season. Delaying influenza vaccination for older adults has attracted attention as a potential public health strategy. However, given the uncertainties in seasonal peak, vaccine effectiveness, and waning rates, postponing vaccination could also lead to increased morbidity, motivating an evaluation of a range of potential scenarios. The aim of this study was to investigate favorable age group-specific vaccination schedules that could lead to the greatest disease burden reduction. Methods We systematically investigated a broad range of vaccination start times for five age groups under six combinations of initial effectiveness and waning rates, based on influenza cases and vaccine uptake data from 10 influenza seasons. We defined the most favorable vaccination schedule as the one that resulted in the greatest reduction in disease burden. Results In scenarios with fast waning, all age groups benefit from delaying vaccination regardless of initial VE and peak timing. In scenarios with slower waning, results are mixed. For the ≥65 group, high initial VE and slow waning suggests that in early-peaking seasons, early vaccination most effectively reduces disease burden, while in late-peaking seasons delaying vaccination is most effective. For the ≥65 group in medium and low initial VE, and slow waning scenarios, delaying vaccination appears to prevent the greatest number of cases, regardless of whether the season peaks early or late. Conclusion The most favorable vaccination schedule is sensitive to changes in initial VE, waning rate, and peak timing. Given estimates of these quantities from statistical and immunological models and observations, our methods can inform vaccination recommendations in order to most effectively reduce the annual disease burden caused by seasonal influenza. Specifically, accurate peak timing forecasts for the upcoming season have the potential to guide decisions on when to vaccinate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A scalable framework for efficient coupling of thermal and microstructural simulations in additive manufacturing

Predicting microstructure evolution in metal additive manufacturing (AM) is important for process optimization, but spatiotemporal scale disparities between thermal transport and microstructure evolution create significant challenges for efficient data transfer between simulation codes. To address this, we present Stork, a scalable framework for coupling thermal and microstructural simulations. Stork uses a sparse data representation to identify and store active solidification sub-volumes, enabling highly parallel quad-linear interpolation from coarse thermal grids to fine microstructure grids without large intermediate storage. We demonstrate the framework by coupling the semi-analytic heat transfer code 3DThesis with the time-parallel cellular automata code Toucan. This approach achieves over two orders of magnitude reduction in data generation time and file size compared to prior workflows. Numerical studies show that quad-linear interpolation preserves grain morphology and crystallographic texture in laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) simulations for coarsening ratios up to 16. Overall, Stork provides a scalable pathway for high-throughput, component-scale AM simulations on modern high-performance computing systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

An integrated experimental–modeling approach to identify key processes for carbon mineralization in fractured mafic and ultramafic rocks

Abstract Controlling atmospheric warming requires immediate reduction of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, as well as the active removal and sequestration of CO2 from current point sources. One promising proposed strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 levels is geologic carbon sequestration (GCS), where CO2 is injected into the subsurface and reacts with the formation to precipitate carbonate minerals. Rapid mineralization has recently been reported for field tests in mafic and ultramafic rocks. However, unlike saline aquifers and depleted oil and gas reservoirs historically considered for GCS, these formations can have extremely low porosities and permeabilities, limiting storage volumes and reactive mineral surfaces to the preexisting fracture network. As a result, coupling between geochemical interactions and the fracture network evolution is a critical component of long-term, sustainable carbon storage. In this paper, we summarize recent advances in integrating experimental and modeling approaches to determine the first-order processes for carbon mineralization in a fractured mafic/ultramafic rock system. We observe the critical role of fracture aperture, flow, and surface characteristics in controlling the quantity, identity, and morphology of secondary precipitates and present where the influence of these factors can be reflected in newly developed thermo-hydro-mechanical–chemical models. Our findings provide a roadmap for future work on carbon mineralization, as we present the most important system components and key challenges that we are overcoming to enable GCS in mafic and ultramafic rocks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Initial Uncertainty Analysis of Carbon Tetrachloride Contamination and Remediation in the Ringold A and Lower Mud Units at the Central Plateau

The long-term effectiveness of groundwater cleanup at the Hanford Site Central Plateau depends on predictive models that can capture key uncertainties in contaminant fate and transport. Carbon tetrachloride (CCl 4 ), a persistent and toxic compound, presents particular challenges due to variability in degradation rates, uncertainty in initial plume distribution, and subsurface heterogeneity. These uncertainties directly influence plume persistence, migration pathways, and remedy performance, and thus must be systematically evaluated to support long-term remediation planning. To address these gaps, a large-scale Monte Carlo analysis was conducted using the Plateau to River (P2R) model framework. The modeling approach parameterized three primary uncertainty factors: (1) degradation rate, (2) initial plume distribution, and (3) hydraulic conductivity. Degradation was represented as a first-order process, with half-lives ranging from 70 to 700 years. Initial plume distributions were created using a geostatistical simulation method (sgsim), which generates many equally plausible versions of how contaminants might be distributed underground. From this, 100 different scenarios were mapped onto the P2R grid. Variability in hydraulic conductivity was represented in a similar way, with 100 scenarios each for the Ringold Lower Mud and Ringold A units (layers 6 and 7), based on fitted exponential variograms and conditioned to well data. In total, more than 1000 realizations were simulated to assess plume behavior under uncertainty. Results demonstrate that degradation kinetics exert the strongest control over plume persistence: Shorter half-lives produced rapid mass reduction, while longer half-lives yielded persistent plumes with limited attenuation. A nonlinear response was observed, with steep mass reductions at half-lives greater than 200 years and near-linear declines beyond this threshold, reflecting interactions between degradation and pumping. The initial plume distribution strongly influenced early transport patterns, with broader sources generating larger plume footprints, although pump-and-treat operations constrained plume migration to managed areas. By comparison, hydraulic conductivity variability in the Ringold units had only a secondary influence, modifying spreading behavior without altering the dominant migration pathways governed by source configuration and hydraulic controls. Overall, the analysis highlights that uncertainty in degradation rate and initial plume configuration are the primary drivers of variability in plume predictions, while conductivity heterogeneity plays a limited role. These findings underscore the need for improved site-specific data on degradation processes and source characterization to enhance the reliability of long-term performance assessments and to better inform remedial decision-making at the Central Plateau.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

A flexible and differentiable coil proxy for stellarator equilibrium optimization

Balancing plasma performance and coil cost is a significant challenge when designing a stellarator power plant. Most current stellarator designs are produced through two-stage optimization: stage-1 for the equilibrium and stage-2 for a coil design that reproduces its magnetic configuration. Because few proxies connect both stages, two-stage optimization can produce plasmas that have high-quality physical properties but overly complex coils. In recent years, single-stage optimization has increasingly been used to optimize the plasma and coils simultaneously in order to improve the plasma–coil balance. However, all existing single-stage tools are specialized for filament coils, cannot model coil systems containing permanent magnets or dipole arrays, and continue to be challenged by numerical problems. The quasi-single-stage optimization finds a middle ground by integrating a coil optimization subproblem into stage-1 optimization. We present a flexible, differentiable coil complexity proxy based on the newly developed QUADCOIL coil optimization code. QUADCOIL is fast and can target realistic coil metrics and constraints that are unavailable to codes with comparable speed. We demonstrate the effectiveness and flexibility of the QUADCOIL proxy by presenting two QSS optimization studies. The first study produces a permanent magnet solution for the MUSE stellarator with 34% fewer magnets than previous solutions. The second study produces a coil solution for the ARIES-CS stellarator with 30% reductions in both peak and root-mean-square force.

Fu, Lanke [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PP↗
DOE OSTI2026

Operando Spectroscopic Analysis of Photovoltage Generation in Hematite Photoanodes

Solar-driven water splitting requires sufficient photovoltage to drive both water oxidation and proton reduction. Understanding the factors driving and limiting photovoltage generation is therefore crucial to optimizing photoelectrode design but has proven challenging to determine under operando conditions for photoanodes driving slow multiredox reactions such as water oxidation. In this work, operando optical spectroscopy is employed to measure the hole quasi-Fermi level (E F,p ) position in model hematite photoanodes as a function of applied bias and light intensity. The quasi-Fermi level splitting determined from these data are shown be in excellent agreement with the directly measured photovoltages, demonstrating the primarily electrochemical rather than primarily electrostatic origin of photovoltage in these photoelectrodes. E F,p pinning is observed at low light intensities and biases, indicative of hole trap states lying ∼0.2 eV above the valence band edge with a density of ∼1 nm −2 . Hole accumulation in these trap states is correlated with first order water oxidation. At higher light intensities and/or more anodic bias, E F,p becomes unpinned, assigned to saturation of these trap states, and correlated with the onset of third order water oxidation to molecular oxygen. Comparison with rate law analyses for other photoanodes indicates that such hole trap states may be a ubiquitous feature of metal oxides and suggests that materials processing strategies to suppress the density of such states would be a promising strategy to enhance photoanode performance.

Hematite↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quasilinear modelling of collisional trapped electron modes

The simplification of collision operators is necessary for quasilinear turbulence modelling used with integrated modelling frameworks, such as the gyrokinetic code QuaLiKiz. The treatment of collisions greatly impacts the accuracy of trapped electron mode (TEM) modelling, which is necessary to predict the electron heat flux and the balance between inward and outward particle fluxes. In particular, accurate particle flux predictions are necessary to successfully model density peaking in the tokamak core. We explored two ways of improving collisional TEM model reduction for tokamak core plasmas. First, we carried out linear GENE simulations to study the complex interplay between collisions and trapped electrons. We then used these simulations to define an effective trapped fraction to characterize the collisional TEM based on two key parameters, the local inverse-aspect ratio $\epsilon$ and the collisionality $\nu ^\ast$. One aspect missing from analytical TEM research is that the collisional frequency and the bounce-transit frequency are both velocity dependent; this effective trapped fraction takes both into account. In doing so, we determined that two parameters are not enough to model the collisional TEM, as an additional third free parameter was necessary. We determined that this model, as currently formulated, is not suitable for integrated modelling purposes. Second, we directly improved QuaLiKiz's Krook operator, which relies on two free parameters. We determined that these parameters required adjustments against higher-fidelity collisional models. In order to improve density profile predictions when paired with integrated models, we refined the Krook operator by using GENE simulations as a higher-fidelity point of comparison. We then demonstrate strong improvement of density peaking predictions of QuaLiKiz within the integrated modelling framework JETTO.

fusion plasma↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Nuclear Construction Cost Reduction Pathways

High construction costs have plagued recent nuclear projects and they hamper the widespread deployment of nuclear technology. The Nuclear Cost Reduction Tool is a plant economic framework that quantifies the impact that various plant design and construction attributes have on construction costs and cost overruns and shows the positive effects of learning over a series of deployments. However, a downside of the current model is that all model outputs and capabilities are deterministic. To provide a more comprehensive view, this study evaluated the impact of model parameter uncertainty through a sensitivity analysis applied to 18 model parameters. This approach quantified the impact of model uncertainty on the output variables of Net Overnight Capital Cost (Net OCC), Construction Duration (CD), and Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). Monte Carlo analysis revealed uncertainty distributions for these variables, showing that absolute uncertainty decreases over a series of deployments. A local sensitivity analysis showed that even small parameter perturbations (5%) can have a significant impact on project execution, highlighting areas that could reduce costs by billions across an order book of plants. The results of this study have improved the understanding of the model and identified the most impactful model parameters and construction attributes.

Levelized Cost of Electricity↗
DOE OSTI2024

tLaSDI: Thermodynamics-informed latent space dynamics identification

Here we propose a latent space dynamics identification method, namely tLaSDI, that embeds the first and second principles of thermodynamics. The latent variables are learned through an autoencoder as a nonlinear dimension reduction model. The latent dynamics are constructed by a neural network-based model that precisely preserves certain structures for the thermodynamic laws through the GENERIC formalism. An abstract error estimate is established, which provides a new loss formulation involving the Jacobian computation of autoencoder. The autoencoder and the latent dynamics are simultaneously trained to minimize the new loss. Computational examples demonstrate the effectiveness of tLaSDI, which exhibits robust generalization ability, even in extrapolation. In addition, an intriguing correlation is empirically observed between a quantity from tLaSDI in the latent space and the behaviors of the full-state solution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗