Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Monte Carlo Analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2004

Guaranteed spatial initialization of distributed spacecraft formations

In a precious paper the authors developed a formation initialization (FI) algorithm for a deep space, N-spacecraft formation. It was demonstrated analytically that this FI contribution of this paper is to extend this planar guarantee to deep space formations with arbitrary initial conditions. As part of the guarantee of initialization, a bound on the time-to-initialize is obtained. The guaranteed FI algorithm is then demonstrated for a two-spacecraft formation with realistic deep space mission constraints (e.g. limited field-of-view relative sensors and attitude constraints). The two-spacecraft scenario is challenging in that it has the least relative sensor field-of-view overlap. Finally, for this scenario, the distribution of time-to-initialize is characterized through a 150,000-case Monte Carlo analysis.

initialization↗
NASA NTRS2007

Earth Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM99): Short Course

Earth-GRAM is a FORTRAN software package that can run on a variety of platforms including PC's. For any time and location in the Earth's atmosphere, Earth-GRAM provides values of atmospheric quantities such as temperature, pressure, density, winds, constituents, etc.. Dispersions (perturbations) of these parameters are also provided and have realistic correlations, means, and variances - useful for Monte Carlo analysis. Earth-GRAM is driven by observations including a tropospheric database available from the National Climatic Data Center. Although Earth-GRAM can be run in a "stand-alone" mode, many users incorporate it into their trajectory codes. The source code is distributed free-of-charge to eligible recipients.

Leslie, Fred W.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Evaluation of Ares-I Control System Robustness to Uncertain Aerodynamics and Flex Dynamics

This paper discusses the application of robust control theory to evaluate robustness of the Ares-I control systems. Three techniques for estimating upper and lower bounds of uncertain parameters which yield stable closed-loop response are used here: (1) Monte Carlo analysis, (2) mu analysis, and (3) characteristic frequency response analysis. All three methods are used to evaluate stability envelopes of the Ares-I control systems with uncertain aerodynamics and flex dynamics. The results show that characteristic frequency response analysis is the most effective of these methods for assessing robustness.

Jang, Jiann-Woei↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Flight Dynamics Perspective of the Orion Pad Abort One Flight Test

The Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle is America s next generation of human rated spacecraft. The Orion Launch Abort System will take the astronauts away from the exploration vehicle in the event of an aborted launch. The pad abort mode of the Launch Abort System will be flight-tested in 2009 from the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. This paper examines some of the efforts currently underway at the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center by the Controls & Dynamics group in preparation for the flight test. The concept of operation for the pad abort flight is presented along with an overview of the guidance, control and navigation systems. Preparations for the flight test, such as hardware testing and development of the real-time displays, are examined. The results from the validation and verification efforts for the aerodynamic and atmospheric models are shown along with Monte Carlo analysis results.

Idicula, Jinu↗
NASA NTRS2010

Orion Flight Performance Design Trades

A significant portion of the Orion pre-PDR design effort has focused on balancing mass with performance. High level performance metrics include abort success rates, lunar surface coverage, landing accuracy and touchdown loads. These metrics may be converted to parameters that affect mass, such as ballast for stabilizing the abort vehicle, propellant to achieve increased lunar coverage or extended missions, or ballast to increase the lift-to-drag ratio to improve entry and landing performance. The Orion Flight Dynamics team was tasked to perform analyses to evaluate many of these trades. These analyses not only provide insight into the physics of each particular trade but, in aggregate, they illustrate the processes used by Orion to balance performance and mass margins, and thereby make design decisions. Lessons learned can be gleaned from a review of these studies which will be useful to other spacecraft system designers. These lessons fall into several categories, including: appropriate application of Monte Carlo analysis in design trades, managing margin in a highly mass-constrained environment, and the use of requirements to balance margin between subsystems and components. This paper provides a review of some of the trades and analyses conducted by the Flight Dynamics team, as well as systems engineering lessons learned.

Jackson, Mark C.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Propulsive Reaction Control System Model

This software models a propulsive reaction control system (RCS) for guidance, navigation, and control simulation purposes. The model includes the drive electronics, the electromechanical valve dynamics, the combustion dynamics, and thrust. This innovation follows the Mars Science Laboratory entry reaction control system design, and has been created to meet the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) entry, descent, and landing simulation needs. It has been built to be plug-and-play on multiple MSL testbeds [analysis, Monte Carlo, flight software development, hardware-in-the-loop, and ATLO (assembly, test and launch operations) testbeds]. This RCS model is a C language program. It contains two main functions: the RCS electronics model function that models the RCS FPGA (field-programmable-gate-array) processing and commanding of the RCS valve, and the RCS dynamic model function that models the valve and combustion dynamics. In addition, this software provides support functions to initialize the model states, set parameters, access model telemetry, and access calculated thruster forces.

Brugarolas, Paul↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Parametric Testing Environment for Finding the Operational Envelopes of Simulated Guidance Algorithms

The Problem: As NASA missions become ever more complex and subsystems become ever more complicated, testing for correctness becomes progressively more difficult. Exhaustive testing is usually impractical, so how does one select a smaller set of test cases that is effective at finding/analyzing bugs? Solution:(1) Let an analyst pose test-space coverage requirements and then refine these requirements to focus on regions of interest in response to visualized test results. (2) Instead of validating correctness around set points (with Monte Carlo analysis) find and characterize the margins of the performance envelop where the system starts to fail.

treatment learning↗
NASA NTRS2013

Dynamic Modeling Accuracy Dependence on Errors in Sensor Measurements, Mass Properties, and Aircraft Geometry

A nonlinear simulation of the NASA Generic Transport Model was used to investigate the effects of errors in sensor measurements, mass properties, and aircraft geometry on the accuracy of dynamic models identified from flight data. Measurements from a typical system identification maneuver were systematically and progressively deteriorated and then used to estimate stability and control derivatives within a Monte Carlo analysis. Based on the results, recommendations were provided for maximum allowable errors in sensor measurements, mass properties, and aircraft geometry to achieve desired levels of dynamic modeling accuracy. Results using other flight conditions, parameter estimation methods, and a full-scale F-16 nonlinear aircraft simulation were compared with these recommendations.

Grauer, Jared A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

A Comparison of Three Algorithms for Orion Drogue Parachute Release

The Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle is susceptible to ipping apex forward between drogue parachute release and main parachute in ation. A smart drogue release algorithm is required to select a drogue release condition that will not result in an apex forward main parachute deployment. The baseline algorithm is simple and elegant, but does not perform as well as desired in drogue failure cases. A simple modi cation to the baseline algorithm can improve performance, but can also sometimes fail to identify a good release condition. A new algorithm employing simpli ed rotational dynamics and a numeric predictor to minimize a rotational energy metric is proposed. A Monte Carlo analysis of a drogue failure scenario is used to compare the performance of the algorithms. The numeric predictor prevents more of the cases from ipping apex forward, and also results in an improvement in the capsule attitude at main bag extraction. The sensitivity of the numeric predictor to aerodynamic dispersions, errors in the navigated state, and execution rate is investigated, showing little degradation in performance.

Matz, Daniel A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Space Launch System Upper Stage Technology Assessment

The Space Launch System (SLS) is envisioned as a heavy-lift vehicle that will provide the foundation for future beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO) exploration missions. Previous studies have been performed to determine the optimal configuration for the SLS and the applicability of commercial off-the-shelf in-space stages for Earth departure. Currently NASA is analyzing the concept of a Dual Use Upper Stage (DUUS) that will provide LEO insertion and Earth departure burns. This paper will explore candidate in-space stages based on the DUUS design for a wide range of beyond LEO missions. Mission payloads will range from small robotic systems up to human systems with deep space habitats and landers. Mission destinations will include cislunar space, Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn. Given these wide-ranging mission objectives, a vehicle-sizing tool has been developed to determine the size of an Earth departure stage based on the mission objectives. The tool calculates masses for all the major subsystems of the vehicle including propellant loads, avionics, power, engines, main propulsion system components, tanks, pressurization system and gases, primary structural elements, and secondary structural elements. The tool uses an iterative sizing algorithm to determine the resulting mass of the stage. Any input into one of the subsystem sizing routines or the mission parameters can be treated as a parametric sweep or as a distribution for use in Monte Carlo analysis. Taking these factors together allows for multi-variable, coupled analysis runs. To increase confidence in the tool, the results have been verified against two point-of-departure designs of the DUUS. The tool has also been verified against Apollo moon mission elements and other manned space systems. This paper will focus on trading key propulsion technologies including chemical, Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP), and Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP). All of the key performance inputs and relationships will be presented and discussed in light of the various missions. For each mission there are several trajectory options and each will be discussed in terms of delta-v required and transit duration. Each propulsion system will be modeled, sized, and judged based on their applicability to the whole range of beyond LEO missions. Criteria for scoring will include the resulting dry mass of the stage, resulting propellant required, time to destination, and an assessment of key enabling technologies. In addition to the larger metrics, this paper will present the results of several coupled sensitivity studies. The ultimate goals of these tools and studies are to provide NASA with the most mass-, technology-, and cost-effective in-space stage for its future exploration missions.

Holladay, Jon↗
NASA NTRS2014

Physics-based Entry, Descent and Landing Risk Model

A physics-based risk model was developed to assess the risk associated with thermal protection system failures during the entry, descent and landing phase of a manned spacecraft mission. In the model, entry trajectories were computed using a three-degree-of-freedom trajectory tool, the aerothermodynamic heating environment was computed using an engineering-level computational tool and the thermal response of the TPS material was modeled using a one-dimensional thermal response tool. The model was capable of modeling the effect of micrometeoroid and orbital debris impact damage on the TPS thermal response. A Monte Carlo analysis was used to determine the effects of uncertainties in the vehicle state at Entry Interface, aerothermodynamic heating and material properties on the performance of the TPS design. The failure criterion was set as a temperature limit at the bondline between the TPS and the underlying structure. Both direct computation and response surface approaches were used to compute the risk. The model was applied to a generic manned space capsule design. The effect of material property uncertainty and MMOD damage on risk of failure were analyzed. A comparison of the direct computation and response surface approach was undertaken.

descent and landing↗
NASA NTRS2013

STIS Coronagraphic Imaging of Fomalhaut: Main Belt Structure and the Orbit of Fomalhaut b

We present new optical coronagraphic data of Fomalhaut obtained with HST/STIS in 2010 and 2012. Fomalhaut b is recovered at both epochs to high significance. The observations include the discoveries of tenuous nebulosity beyond the main dust belt detected to at least 209AU projected radius, and a approx. 50AU wide azimuthal gap in the belt northward of Fomalhaut b. The two epochs of Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS) photometry exclude optical variability greater than 35%. A Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis demonstrates that the orbit of Fomalhaut b is highly eccentric, with e = 0.8 +/- 0.1, a = 177 +/- 68AU, and q = 32 +/- 24AU. Fomalhaut b is apsidally aligned with the belt and 90% of allowed orbits have mutual inclination <=36 deg. Fomalhaut b's orbit is belt crossing in the sky plane projection, but only 12% of possible orbits have ascending or descending nodes within a 25AU wide belt annulus. The high eccentricity invokes a dynamical history where Fomalhaut b may have experienced a significant dynamical interaction with a hypothetical planet Fomalhaut c, and the current orbital configuration may be relatively short-lived. The Tisserand parameter with respect to a hypothetical Fomalhaut planet at 30AU or 120AU lies in the range 2-3, similar to highly eccentric dwarf planets in our solar system. We argue that Fomalhaut b's minimum mass is that of a dwarf planet in order for a circumplanetary satellite system to remain bound to a sufficient radius from the planet to be consistent with the dust scattered light hypothesis. In the coplanar case, Fomalhaut b will collide with the main belt around 2032, and the subsequent emergent phenomena may help determine its physical nature.

Tisserand parameter↗
NASA NTRS2015

Supersonic Flight Dynamics Test 1 - Post-Flight Assessment of Simulation Performance

NASA's Low Density Supersonic Decelerator (LDSD) project conducted its first Supersonic Flight Dynamics Test (SFDT-1) on June 28, 2014. Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) was one of the flight dynamics codes used to simulate and predict the flight performance and Monte Carlo analysis was used to characterize the potential flight conditions experienced by the test vehicle. This paper compares the simulation predictions with the reconstructed trajectory of SFDT-1. Additionally, off-nominal conditions seen during flight are modeled in post-flight simulations to find the primary contributors that reconcile the simulation with flight data. The results of these analyses are beneficial for the pre-flight simulation and targeting of the follow-on SFDT flights currently scheduled for summer 2015.

Dutta, Soumyo↗
NASA NTRS2013

Transfer Trajectory Design for the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) Mission

The Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) mission will determine the history of the loss of volatiles from the Martian atmosphere from a highly inclined elliptical orbit. MAVEN will launch from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station on an Atlas-V 401 during an extended 36-day launch period opening November 18, 2013. The MAVEN Navigation and Mission Design team performed a Monte Carlo analysis of the Type-II transfer to characterize; dispersions of the arrival B-Plane, trajectory correction maneuvers (TCMs), and the probability of Mars impact. This paper presents detailed analysis of critical MOI event coverage, maneuver constraints, deltaV-99 budgets, and Planetary Protection requirements.

Folta, David↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Development and Implementation of the Kennedy Space Center Umbilical Clearance Tool

In preparation for NASAs upcoming Space Launch System program, the Kennedy Space Center is currently developing subsystems to provide fuel, purges and communications to the flight vehicle, known as umbilicals. It is vital to the crew and mission that these umbilicals release at T-0 without re-contacting the vehicle as it is accelerating from the launch pad. To help ensure this requirement is met by the program, a methodology of evaluating the moving bodies was developed and implemented into a tool using MATLAB. The tool, known as the KSC Umbilical Clearance Tool, takes a given elevation of interest and an umbilical retract profile within the plane to evaluate the clearance between the umbilical arm and thousands of independent flight vehicle drift profiles from a Monte Carlo analysis. The presentation will delve into the challenges associated with developing and implementing the tool framed in the context of evaluating the clearance for one of the SLS umbilicals.

Clearance↗
NASA NTRS2015

Desensitized Optimal Filtering and Sensor Fusion Toolkit

Analytical Mechanics Associates, Inc., has developed a software toolkit that filters and processes navigational data from multiple sensor sources. A key component of the toolkit is a trajectory optimization technique that reduces the sensitivity of Kalman filters with respect to model parameter uncertainties. The sensor fusion toolkit also integrates recent advances in adaptive Kalman and sigma-point filters for non-Gaussian problems with error statistics. This Phase II effort provides new filtering and sensor fusion techniques in a convenient package that can be used as a stand-alone application for ground support and/or onboard use. Its modular architecture enables ready integration with existing tools. A suite of sensor models and noise distribution as well as Monte Carlo analysis capability are included to enable statistical performance evaluations.

Karlgaard, Christopher D.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Parametric Covariance Model for Horizon-Based Optical Navigation

This Note presents an entirely parametric version of the covariance for horizon-based optical navigation measurements. The covariance can be written as a function of only the spacecraft position, two sensor design parameters, the illumination direction, the size of the observed planet, the size of the lit arc to be used, and the total number of observed horizon points. As a result, one may now more clearly understand the sensitivity of horizon-based optical navigation performance as a function of these key design parameters, which is insight that was obscured in previous (and nonparametric) versions of the covariance. Finally, the new parametric covariance is shown to agree with both the nonparametric analytic covariance and results from a Monte Carlo analysis.

Optical Navigatio↗
NASA NTRS2018

Closed Loop Guidance Trade Study for Space Launch System Block-1B Vehicle

NASA is currently building the Space Launch System (SLS) Block-1 launch vehicle for the Exploration Mission 1 (EM-1) test flight. The design of the next evolution of SLS, Block-1B, is well underway. The Block-1B vehicle is more capable overall than Block-1; however, the relatively low thrust-to-weight ratio of the Exploration Upper Stage (EUS) presents a challenge to the Powered Explicit Guidance (PEG) algorithm used by Block-1. To handle the long burn durations (on the order of 1000 seconds) of EUS missions, two algorithms were examined. An alternative algorithm, OPGUID, was introduced, while modifications were made to PEG. A trade study was conducted to select the guidance algorithm for future SLS vehicles. The chosen algorithm needs to support a wide variety of mission operations: ascent burns to LEO, apogee raise burns, trans-lunar injection burns, hyperbolic Earth departure burns, and contingency disposal burns using the Reaction Control System (RCS). Additionally, the algorithm must be able to respond to a single engine failure scenario. Each algorithm was scored based on pre-selected criteria, including insertion accuracy, algorithmic complexity and robustness, extensibility for potential future missions, and flight heritage. Monte Carlo analysis was used to select the final algorithm. This paper covers the design criteria, approach, and results of this trade study, showing impacts and considerations when adapting launch vehicle guidance algorithms to a broader breadth of in-space operations.

Von der Porten, Paul↗