Machine learning-enabled techno-economic uncertainty analysis of sustainable aviation fuel production pathways
Not Available
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
SEARCH · Search NASA
Results for “Monte Carlo Methods”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Uncertainty quantification for Joule heating processes in fibrous pore-resolved media
Joule heating (JH) is an energy-efficient and sustainable technique for heating materials. Its application for industrial heating, particularly, has been gaining attention due to its potential for increasing the yield of various chemical products. The process involves the use of heating elements (materials that are highly conductive electrically and thermally) to heat up other materials or substances. These conductors, however, can exhbit varying degrees of uncertainty due to non-linearities in their temperature-dependent properties, which could result in variable material behavior. In this work, we carry out uncertainty quantification (UQ) at the pore scale to describe the uncertainty of such materials. In so doing, we applied the non-intrusive polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) technique to quantify the uncertainty within the system. The steady state Joule heating equation was solved numerically at the pore scale mimicking conditions within a heating chamber for propane dehydrogenation, and various electro-thermal profiles were obtained. We also examined the effect of the number of sampling points (20 – 100) and order of the PCE coefficients (2 – 5) on the accuracy of the temperature evaluations. The results were then benchmarked with the standard Monte Carlo (MC) method. The average temperature of the 4th-order global PCE showed good agreement with the MC results (which were positively skewed). Orders greater than 4 gave an underestimation of the temperatures while predictions for the peak temperature improved as the number of sampling points increased.
Fagbemi, Samuel [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000236995025)↗
GenAI4UQ: A software for forward and inverse uncertainty quantification using conditional generative AI
We introduce GenAI4UQ, a software package for forward and inverse uncertainty quantification in model calibration, parameter estimation, and ensemble forecasting. GenAI4UQ leverages a generative AI-based conditional modeling framework to address limitations of traditional inverse modeling techniques, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. By replacing computationally intensive iterative processes with a direct, learned mapping, GenAI4UQ enables efficient calibration of input parameters and generation of predictions directly from observations. The software supports rapid ensemble forecasting with robust uncertainty quantification while maintaining computational and storage efficiency. Built-in auto-tuning of hyperparameters simplifies model training, ensuring accessibility for users with varying expertise. Its versatile conditional generative framework is applicable across diverse scientific domains. While GenAI4UQ offers significant advantages in flexibility and efficiency, users should interpret its uncertainty estimates with caution in data-sparse scenarios, as the model may overestimate uncertainty—an effect common to all surrogate-based approaches including MCMC with surrogate models. Despite this, GenAI4UQ transforms inverse modeling by providing a fast, reliable, and user-friendly solution. It empowers researchers and practitioners to quickly estimate parameter distributions and generate model predictions for new observations, facilitating efficient decision-making and advancing the state of uncertainty quantification in computational modeling.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Force-Free Identification of Minimum-Energy Pathways and Transition States for Stochastic Electronic Structure Theories
Here, the accurate mapping of potential energy surfaces (PESs) is crucial to our understanding of the numerous physical and chemical processes mediated by atomic rearrangements, such as conformational changes and chemical reactions, and the thermodynamic and kinetic feasibility of these processes. Stochastic electronic structure theories, e.g., Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) methods, enable highly accurate total energy calculations that in principle can be used to construct the PES. However, their stochastic nature poses a challenge to the computation and use of forces and Hessians, which are typically required in algorithms for minimum-energy pathway (MEP) and transition state (TS) identification, such as the nudged elastic band (NEB) algorithm and its climbing image formulation. Here, we present strategies that utilize the surrogate Hessian line-search method, previously developed for QMC structural optimization, to efficiently identify MEP and TS structures without requiring force calculations at the level of the stochastic electronic structure theory. By modifying the surrogate Hessian algorithm to operate in path-orthogonal subspaces and at saddle points, we show that it is possible to identify MEPs and TSs by using a force-free QMC approach. We demonstrate these strategies via two examples, the inversion of the ammonia (NH 3 ) molecule and the nucleophilic substitution (S N 2) reaction F – + CH 3 F → FCH 3 + F – . We validate our results using Density Functional Theory (DFT)- and Coupled Cluster (CCSD, CCSD(T))-based NEB calculations. We then introduce a hybrid DFT-QMC approach to compute thermodynamic and kinetic quantities, free energy differences, rate constants, and equilibrium constants that incorporates stochastically optimized structures and their energies, and show that this scheme improves upon DFT accuracy. Our methods generalize straightforwardly to other systems and other high-accuracy theories that similarly face challenges computing energy gradients, paving the way for highly accurate PES mapping, transition state determination, and thermodynamic and kinetic calculations at significantly reduced computational expense.
Iyer, Gopal R.↗
Extending quantum-mechanical benchmark accuracy to biological ligand-pocket interactions
Predicting the binding affinity of ligands to protein pockets is key in the drug design pipeline. The flexibility of ligand-pocket motifs arises from a range of attractive and repulsive electronic interactions during binding. Accurately accounting for all interactions requires robust quantum-mechanical (QM) benchmarks, which are scarce for ligand-pocket systems. Additionally, disagreement between “gold standard” Coupled Cluster (CC) and Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) methods casts doubt on many benchmarks for larger non-covalent systems. We introduce the “QUantum Interacting Dimer” (QUID) benchmark framework containing 170 non-covalent (non-)equilibrium systems modeling chemically and structurally diverse ligand-pocket motifs. Symmetry-adapted perturbation theory shows that QUID broadly covers non-covalent binding motifs and energetic contributions. Robust binding energies are obtained using complementary CC and QMC methods, achieving agreement of 0.5 kcal/mol. The benchmark data analysis reveals that several dispersion-inclusive density functional approximations provide accurate energy predictions, though their atomic van der Waals forces differ in magnitude and orientation. Contrarily, semiempirical methods and empirical force fields require improvements in capturing non-covalent interactions (NCIs) for out-of-equilibrium geometries. The wide span of NCIs, highly accurate interaction energies, and analysis of molecular properties take QUID beyond the “gold standard” for QM benchmarks of ligand-protein systems.
Puleva, Mirela [University of Luxembourg, Luxembou↗
3D reconstruction of an inertial-confinement fusion implosion with neural networks using multiple heterogeneous data sources
3D asymmetries are major degradation mechanisms in inertial-confinement fusion implosions at the National Ignition Facility (NIF). These asymmetries can be diagnosed and reconstructed with the neutron imaging system (NIS) on three lines of sight around the NIF target chamber. Conventional tomographic reconstructions are used to reconstruct the 3D morphology of the implosion using NIS [Volegov et al., J. Appl. Phys. 127, 083301 (2020)], but the problem is ill-posed with only three imaging lines of sight. Asymmetries can also be diagnosed with the real-time neutron activation diagnostics (RTNAD) and the neutron time-of-flight (nToF) suite. Since the NIS, RTNAD, and nToF each sample a different part of the implosion using different physical principles, we propose that it is possible to overcome the limitations of too few imaging lines of sight by performing 3D reconstructions that combine information from all three heterogeneous data sources. This work presents a new machine learning-based reconstruction technique to do just this. By using a simple physics model and group of neural networks to map 3D morphologies to data, this technique can easily account for data of multiple different types. A simple proof-of-principle is presented, demonstrating that this technique can accurately reconstruct a hot-spot shape using synthetic primary neutron images and a hot-spot velocity vector. In particular, the hot-spot’s asymmetry, quantified as spherical harmonic coefficients, is reconstructed to within ±4% of the radius in 90% of test cases. In the future, this technique will be applied to actual NIS, RTNAD, and nToF data to better understand 3D asymmetries at the NIF.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Diagnosing hot-spot symmetry in surrogate ignition experiments via secondary DT-neutron spectroscopy at the NIF
The directional energy spectrum of neutrons generated from the in-flight fusion reaction of 1-MeV tritons contains information about the hot-spot symmetry. The National Ignition Facility (NIF) fields Symmetry Capsule (Symcap) implosions, which have historically measured the symmetry of the radiation, drive by measuring the hot-spot shape via x-ray self-emission. Symcaps are used to tune the hot-spot symmetry for ignition experiments at the NIF. This work shows the relationship between directional secondary DT-n spectra and x-ray imaging data for a large database of Symcap implosions. A correlation is observed between the relative widths of the DT-n spectra measured with nTOFs and the shape measured with x-ray imaging. A Monte Carlo model, which computes the directional secondary DT-n spectrum, is used to interpret the results. A comparison of the x-ray and secondary DT-n data with the Monte Carlo model indicates that 56% of the variance between the two datasets is explained by a P2 asymmetry. More advanced simulations using HYDRA suggest that the unaccounted variance is due to P1 and P4 asymmetries present in the hot spot. The comparison of secondary DT-n data and x-ray imaging data to the modeling shows the DT-n data contain important information that supplements current P2 measurements and contain new information about the P1 asymmetry.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Solvent structure and dynamics over Brønsted acid MWW zeolite nanosheets
In the liquid phase of heterogeneous catalysis, solvent plays an important role and governs the kinetics and thermodynamics of a reaction. Although it is often difficult to quantify the role of the solvent, it becomes particularly challenging when a zeolite is used as the catalyst. This difficulty arises from the complex nature of the liquid/zeolite interface and the different solvation environments around catalytically active sites. Here, we use ab initio molecular dynamics simulations to probe the local solvation structure and dynamics of methanol and water over MWW zeolite nanosheets with varying Brønsted acidity. We find that the zeolite framework and the number and location of the acid sites in the zeolite influence the structure and dynamics of the solvent. In particular, methanol is more likely to be in the vicinity of the aluminum (Al 3+ ) at the T4 site than at T1 due to easy accessibility. The methanol oxygen binds strongly to the Al at the T4 site, weakening the Al–O for the bridging acid site, which results in the formation of the silanol group, significantly reducing the acidity of the site. The behavior of methanol is in direct contrast to that of water, where protons can easily propagate from the zeolite to the solvent molecules regardless of the acid site location. Furthermore, our work provides molecular-level insights into how solvent interacts with zeolite surfaces, leading to an improved understanding of the catalytic site in the MWW zeolite nanosheet.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
General guide concepts for compact, high-brilliance neutron moderators
The trend in neutron sciences is toward integrating compact, high-brightness moderators into new or upgraded facilities. Transporting neutrons from the source to the sample position with a phase-space distribution tailored to specific requirements is crucial to leverage high source brilliance. Here we have investigated four guide concepts using Monte Carlo ray tracing simulations: Montel beamline with nested Kirkpatrick–Baez mirrors, curved-tapered beamline with a bender and straight sections, straight-elliptical beamline, and curved-elliptical beamline. The straight-elliptical (curved-elliptical) beamline features two half-ellipse guides connected by a straight (non-straight) guide section. The neutron transport efficiency and phase space homogeneity have been quantitatively compared. Our results show that the straight-elliptical beamline performs best because of few neutron bounces on the guide surface with small reflection angles, minimizing flux loss. The Montel beamline provides the best spatial confinement of neutrons within the desired region; however, there is a high thermal-neutron loss due to large reflection angles. The curved-tapered beamline suffers from significant flux loss due to high bounces, and it shows a non-uniform angular distribution related to broad ranges of bounces and reflection angles. The non-straight guide section of the curved-elliptical beamline increases the phase space inhomogeneity, leading to a spatially non-uniform beam profile. The results apply to general neutron instruments that require transporting thermal and cold neutrons from a compact, high-brilliance moderator to the sample location with a moderate phase-space volume.
47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
In-situ relative calibration of Bragg crystals with Monte Carlo line ratio analysis
X-ray line emission spectra can thoroughly characterize hot plasmas, especially when line shapes and ratios convey distinct aspects of plasma conditions. However, the high spectral resolution required for observing line shapes is often at odds with the large bandwidth required to observe many line ratios across a wide spectral range. One strategy to obtain high spectral resolution over a wide bandwidth is to use multiple crystals with calibrated reflectivity so that line intensities across different crystals can be compared. Here, we explore the use of a low-resolution, wide-bandwidth mica survey spectrometer to infer relative reflectivity of two high-resolution, narrow-bandwidth quartz crystals. Finally, a Monte Carlo error analysis determines comparable x-ray line ratios measured from both spectrometers, resulting in an in situ calibration factor and associated uncertainty for the relative reflectivity of the high-resolution crystals.
47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
Modeling ethanol/water adsorption in all-silica zeolites using the real adsorbed solution theory
A comprehensive set of single-component and binary isotherms were collected for ethanol/water adsorption into the siliceous forms of 185 known zeolites using grand-canonical Monte Carlo simulations. Using these data, a systematic analysis of ideal/real adsorbed-solution theory (IAST/RAST) was conducted and activity coefficients were derived for ethanol/water mixtures adsorbed in different zeolites based on RAST. It was found that activity coefficients of ethanol are close to unity while activity coefficients of water are larger in most zeolites, indicating a positive excess free energy of the mixture. This observation can be attributed to water/ethanol interactions being less favorable than water/water interactions in the single-component adsorption of water at comparable loadings. The deviation from ideal behavior can be highly structure-dependent but no clear correlation with pore diameters was identified. Furthermore, our analysis also demonstrates the following: (1) accurate unary isotherms in the low-loading regime are critical for obtaining physically sensible activity coefficients; (2) the global regression scheme to solve for activity model parameters performs better than fitting activity models to activity coefficients calculated locally at each binary state point; and (3) including the dependence on adsorption potential offers only a minor benefit for describing binary adsorption at the lowest fugacities. Finally, the Margules activity model was found incapable of capturing the non-ideal adsorption behavior over the entire range of fugacities and compositions in all zeolites, but for conditions typical of solution-phase adsorption, RAST predictions using zeolite-specific or even bulk Margules parameters provide an improved description compared to IAST.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
A compact x-ray spectrometer for measurements of electron temperature distributions in inertial confinement fusion implosions at OMEGA
The Wedge Range Filter (WRF), commonly used for proton spectroscopy at the OMEGA Laser Facility and National Ignition Facility, is adapted to measure the x-ray continuum spectrum through transmission measurement using a continuous-gradient filter. Continuum x rays emitted from the hotspot of an implosion contain information about the plasma composition and electron temperature. The WRF data are leveraged to probe this distribution, specifically the electron temperature distribution. In this work, the data recorded with the WRF are forward modeled using a temperature distribution model folded with the WRF response function. An uncertainty analysis is conducted through a Bayesian regression algorithm using a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampler. This analysis enables the uncertainties in the instrument response to be folded into the uncertainty estimation of the electron temperature and absolute x-ray emission. Data analysis for a series of OMEGA implosions is presented and compared with radiation hydrodynamic simulations.
Lasers↗
Constraining the 3He + 3He Gamow energy probed in high energy density plasmas at the National Ignition Facility
Polar-direct-drive implosions at the National Ignition Facility generated large plasma volumes to study the 3He + 3He fusion reaction. The ion temperature, which determines the Gamow peak energy, was constrained by isolating the thermal contribution to the D3He-proton spectral width in a 3He plasma doped with deuterium. X-ray penumbral imaging was used to measure electron temperature, density, and hotspot volume, which was subsequently used to model the spectral broadening from plasma stopping power. Results showed 30% of the D3He-proton spectral width was due to stopping power, with residual flows contributing ≈10%. The 3He temperature was determined as T3He = 12.4 ± 3.2 keV, corresponding to a Gamow energy of 95 ± 14 keV. These experiments achieved the lowest Gamow energy to date for studying 3He + 3He fusion in high energy density plasma, approaching conditions in the Sun.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Statistical inference of collision frequencies from x-ray Thomson scattering spectra
Thomson scattering spectra measure the response of plasma particles to incident radiation. In warm dense matter, which is opaque to visible light, x-ray Thomson scattering (XRTS) enables a detailed probe of the electron distribution and has been used as a diagnostic for electron temperature, density, and plasma ionization. In this work, we examine the sensitivities of inelastic XRTS signatures to modeling details, including the dynamic collision frequency and the electronic density of states. Applying verified Monte Carlo inversion methods to dynamic structure factors obtained from time-dependent density functional theory, we assess the utility of XRTS signals as a way to inform the dynamic collision frequency, especially its direct-current limit, which is directly related to the electrical conductivity.
Collision frequency↗
A discretized representation for Monte Carlo simulation of deformed semiflexible chains
In this study, we present a novel orientation discretization approach based on the rhombic triacontahedron for Monte Carlo simulations of semiflexible polymer chains, aiming at enhancing structural analysis through rheo-small-angle scattering (rheo-SAS). Our approach provides a more accurate representation of the geometric features of semiflexible chains under deformation, surpassing the capabilities of traditional lattice structures. Validation against the Kratky–Porod chain system demonstrated superior consistency, underscoring its potential to significantly improve the precision of uncovering geometric details from rheo-SAS data. Further, this approach opens new avenues for investigating the conformations of semiflexible polymers and mechanically induced phase transitions in more complex polymer structures, offering deeper insights into their behavior under various conditions.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Incident beam optics optimization for the single crystal neutron diffractometer Pioneer with a polarized beam option
Pioneer, a next-generation single-crystal neutron diffractometer, is under development for Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Second Target Station. Designed to address a wide range of scientific questions, Pioneer will deliver homogeneous neutron beams with customizable size and divergence and provide a polarized beam option. This article introduces its incident beam optics, highlighting the optimization methodology and the simulated performance. Pioneer will utilize a modified elliptical-straight guide for neutron transport and deploy slit packages and insertable apertures to control beam size and divergence. The optimized guide geometry matches the optimal-and-full-sample-illumination condition, and the beam control system effectively filters out unwanted neutrons while preserving the desired ones. In addition, we have found that polygon-approximated guides provide satisfactory transport efficiency and beam homogeneity, eliminating the need for truly curved guides. Further, to enhance neutronics performance and reduce cost, the coatings of supermirror elements are individually optimized to the lowest half-integer m-values that are sufficient to deliver the desired neutrons. After evaluating polarizing V-cavities and 3 He spin filters over the default polarized wavelength band of 1.2–5.5 Å, we selected a translatable multichannel polarizing V-cavity as the incident beam polarizer. Strategically placed at a location where the beam divergence is low and a large in-guide gap has negligible impact on transport efficiency, the optimized V-cavity achieves an average P 2 T of ~35%.
47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
Charge regulation effects on colloidal mixture nanoparticles
Changes in pH within a system containing dissociable sites affect the protonation and deprotonation of these groups, thereby influencing their physical properties. In response, the system modifies their surface charge, affecting electrostatic interactions, aggregation, stability, and structural behavior. Although the pH can be tuned in experiments, it is difficult to model this phenomenon using simulations or theoretical approaches. Here, we perform hybrid Monte Carlo-molecular dynamics simulations to model charge regulation effects in an equimolar colloidal charged system. We compare charge regulation effects with those of a system in which the charges of colloidal nanoparticles are not dissociable. The comparison between the two cases modifies the phase diagram, and it changes the volume fraction where a percolation network of nanoparticles is found. Charge regulation is found to destroy network formation, as the charge in the nanoparticles is modified because of the cooperativity dependency of the degree of charge dissociation sites among the nanoparticles favoring cluster formation. Furthermore, our work suggests that the ionic and/or electronic conductivity in functionalized nanoparticles can be modified by changing pH values. It also guides the experimental design of oppositely charged nanoparticles as inks for 3D printing processes.
Classical statistical mechanics↗
Developing reliable machine learning interatomic potential for Fe–Cr–Ni austenitic alloys
Gaining atomistic understanding of mechanical behavior of heat-resistant structural materials such as Fe–Cr–Ni-based alloys requires an approach with an accuracy close to density functional theory (DFT) that considers the intrinsic properties of the bulk lattice and important defects such as stacking faults, grain boundaries, and surfaces. This work aims to develop reliable machine learning interatomic potential (MLIAP) at cross-scale for Fe–Cr–Ni ternary alloys with a focus on the face-centered-cubic (fcc) solid solution structure. Leveraging the advantages of moment tensor potentials, which typically necessitate a relatively small training dataset and enable rapid calculations using the large-scale atomic/molecular massively parallel simulator package, we ensure the stability and accuracy of the trained potentials. Important defects such as stacking faults, grain boundaries, and surfaces for wide-range compositions are investigated. Structural, thermal, elastic, and defect properties are determined from molecular dynamics simulations comprising several thousand atoms, generated via canonical Monte Carlo simulations guided by the trained potential. The trained potential allows efficient atomic simulations of structural, thermal, and mechanical properties of fcc Fe–Cr–Ni solid solution alloys as a function of composition and temperature. Therefore, the MLIAP approach represents a major advancement from DFT calculations that are limited to small simulation sizes and traditional molecular dynamics simulations using relatively low accuracy potentials. Furthermore, this work outlines a practical foundation for further investigating the structural evolution and mechanical behavior of austenitic stainless steel and nickel-based alloys in a wide array of applications in extreme environments.
Crystal structure↗