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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Combining Eddy Covariance Towers, Field Measurements, and the MEMS 2 Ecosystem Model Improves Confidence in the Climate Impacts of Bioenergy With Carbon Capture and Storage

ABSTRACT Carbon dioxide removal technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) are required if the effects of climate change are to be reversed over the next century. However, BECCS demands extensive land use change that may create positive or negative radiative forcing impacts upstream of the BECCS facility through changes to in situ greenhouse gas fluxes and land surface albedo. When quantifying these upstream climate impacts, even at a single site, different methods can give different estimates. Here we show how three common methods for estimating the net ecosystem carbon balance of bioenergy crops established on former grassland or former cropland can differ in their central estimates and uncertainty. We place these net ecosystem carbon balance forcings in the context of associated radiative forcings from changes to soil N 2 O and CH 4 fluxes, land surface albedo, embedded fossil fuel use, and geologically stored carbon. Results from long term eddy covariance measurements, a soil and plant carbon inventory, and the MEMS 2 process‐based ecosystem model all agree that establishing perennials such as switchgrass or mixed prairie on former cropland resulted in net negative radiative forcing (i.e., global cooling) of −26.5 to −39.6 fW m −2 over 100 years. Establishing these perennials on former grassland sites had similar climate mitigation impacts of −19.3 to −42.5 fW m −2 . However, the largest climate mitigation came from establishing corn for BECCS on former cropland or grassland, with radiative forcings from −38.4 to −50.5 fW m −2 , due to its higher plant productivity and therefore more geologically stored carbon. Our results highlight the strengths and limitations of each method for quantifying the field scale climate impacts of BECCS and show that utilizing multiple methods can increase confidence in the final radiative forcing estimates.

Falvo, Grant [Department of Plant, Soil and Microb↗
DOE OSTI2020

Leveraging the signature of heterotrophic respiration on atmospheric CO 2 for model benchmarking

Spatial and temporal variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) reflect large-scale net carbon exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems. Soil heterotrophic respiration (HR) is one of the component fluxes that drive this net exchange, but, given observational limitations, it is difficult to quantify this flux or to evaluate global-scale model simulations thereof. Here, we show that atmospheric CO 2 can provide a useful constraint on large-scale patterns of soil heterotrophic respiration. We analyze three soil model configurations (CASA-CNP, MIMICS, and CORPSE) that simulate HR fluxes within a biogeochemical test bed that provides each model with identical net primary productivity (NPP) and climate forcings. We subsequently quantify the effects of variation in simulated terrestrial carbon fluxes (NPP and HR from the three soil test-bed models) on atmospheric CO 2 distributions using a three-dimensional atmospheric tracer transport model. Our results show that atmospheric CO 2 observations can be used to identify deficiencies in model simulations of the seasonal cycle and interannual variability in HR relative to NPP. In particular, the two models that explicitly simulated microbial processes (MIMICS and CORPSE) were more variable than observations at interannual timescales and showed a stronger-than-observed temperature sensitivity. Our results prompt future research directions to use atmospheric CO 2 , in combination with additional constraints on terrestrial productivity or soil carbon stocks, for evaluating HR fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Key Environmental and Ecological Variables of Wetland CH 4 and CO 2 Fluxes Change With Warming

Wetlands are important ecosystems for the global carbon cycle, impacting regional and global methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) budgets. This study examines how environmental and ecological variables impact wetland CH 4 flux and net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (NEE) across 17 sites globally. We also quantified the importance of variables for each wetland type and site at monthly scale under normal and warm temperatures using dominance analysis. We identified soil and air temperature (TS, TA, respectively) as key variables influencing wetland CH4, and latent heat (LE) and shortwave radiation (SW) for NEE under normal and warm conditions. However, the importance of some variables shifted with warming. For predicting the variability of wetland CH4 flux under warming, gross primary productivity (GPP) and LE, replacing wind direction (WD), were dominant variables for tropical swamps, while NEE was important for high-latitude fens and bogs under warm temperatures. For wetland NEE, the role of TA and TS decreased across all wetland types with warming, while vapor pressure deficit (VPD) became more important for mid and high-latitude wetlands. Our results reveal the complex responses of wetland carbon flux to environmental and ecological variables with warming and provide new insights into improving wetland models by incorporating additional variables and accounting for the changing roles of variables in carbon flux under warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Myco-CORPSE simulations assessing mycorrhizal carbon allocation across U.S. forests and global change scenarios

Plants allocate a substantial portion of their fixed carbon belowground to mycorrhizal fungi in exchange for nutrients and other benefits. However, most current ecosystem models omit mycorrhizal processes, limiting our ability to predict plant–soil carbon dynamics under environmental change. To address this gap, we used a mycorrhiza-explicit soil biogeochemical model, Myco-CORPSE (Mycorrhizal Carbon, Organisms, Rhizosphere, and Protection in the Soil Environment), to simulate tree carbon allocation to arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) and ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi in temperate forests.The dataset includes outputs from two sets of model simulations:1. Perturbation experiments: Simulations across gradients of ECM dominance (0–100%), nitrogen deposition, soil temperature, and net primary productivity (NPP) to test how these factors affect mycorrhizal C allocation and nutrient cycling.2. FIA-based simulations: Model applications to over 1,800 U.S. forest sites using site-specific data from the U.S. Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program, including vegetation composition, mycorrhizal type, climate, litter traits, soil properties, and N deposition.Model outputs include simulated mycorrhizal carbon allocation and related biogeochemical variables, such as soil and microbial carbon and nitrogen stocks. Data are provided in CSV format and organized by experiment type (in separate ZIP files). Python scripts for running simulations, plotting, and spatial mapping are also included and organized similarly. No proprietary software is required. These outputs support a peer-reviewed study and were used to generate figures and tables in the associated publication.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Land cover change-induced decline in terrestrial gross primary production over the conterminous United States from 2001 to 2016

As one of the most dynamic aspects of global environmental change, land cover change (LCC) has a profound impact on terrestrial carbon sequestration. However, LCC-induced carbon fluxes are still the most uncertain terms in global and regional carbon budgets. Ecosystem gross primary production (GPP) is the total carbon uptake by vegetation through photosynthesis, serving as a major control on ecosystem function and land carbon balance during and after the modification of the land surface. However, accurately capturing LCC-induced GPP changes requires both high-quality land cover data and controlling for variation driven by other environmental factors such as climate. In this study, we comprehensively examined the effects of LCC on annual GPP trends over the conterminous United States (CONUS) from 2001 to 2016 using the USGS National Land Cover Database, a remote sensing-driven ecosystem model, and the Google Earth Engine cloud computing platform. We designed a series of model experiments to identify LCC effects on GPP by controlling climate effects. During the study period, LCC exerted a strong negative effect on total GPP across the CONUS ([-2.2, -1.8] Tg C yr -2 ), while climate had smaller positive effects ([0.17, 0. 92] Tg C yr -2 ). The LCC-induced reduction of GPP was mainly caused by net forest loss ([-1.98, -1.39] Tg C yr -2 ) and urban expansion ([-2.03, -1.92] Tg C yr -2 ), but was partially offset by increases in crop area ([+0.66, +0.79] Tg C yr -2 ). Ensemble simulations from TRENDY did not capture the strong negative LCC influences on GPP, likely due to limitations of the adopted land use/cover data. Overall, our study provides a novel perspective on LCC-induced GPP changes, which could help to improve our understanding of ecosystem function changes and constrain the estimation of land carbon balance in the context of anthropogenic activity and climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

BSEC VPRM 10m Hourly Biogenic Fluxes in Baltimore (2021)

Model outputs from the Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM: version from Horne et al. in prep). Model remote sensing inputs come from Sential 2-derived EVI and LSWI. Model meteorological inputs for two-meter air temperature and shortwave incoming come from the BSEC WRF 2021 Control Run (Foust, W. 2023). Plant functional Types (PFTs) are spatially classified using the Chesapeake Bay Program 2018 land use land cover product. The final biogenic flux (µmol CO2 m^-2 s^-1) outputs of NEE, RESP, and GEE are a weighted average based on the portion of PFTs within the cell. Individual PFT outputs are saved inside PFT directories (e.g., Crops, Grass, etc.) inside the specific month directory. Model outputs are denoted as a negative flux into the land system (i.e., photosynthesis) and a positive flux as a net release into the overlying atmosphere. Respiration (RESP) fluxes are positive and combine heterotrophic (only soil) and autotrophic sources. Gross ecosystem exchange (GEE) is a negative flux driven by only photosynthetic activity from vegetation, and the Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) is the sum of the two (i.e., NEE=RESP+GEE). Data Characteristics Spatial Resolution: 10m Temporal Resolution: Hourly File Format: VPRM_ _BSEC. .tif (Hour is in UTC) For more information on the model results, please email Jason Horne (jph6488@psu.edu). References: Foust, W. (2023). BSEC WRF 2021 Control Run Output (v0.1.0) [Data set]. MSD-LIVE Data Repository. https://data.msdlive.org/records/m0e6m-vvq17

Baltimore↗
DOE OSTI2021

Environmental and cost benefits of multi‐purpose buffers in an agricultural watershed for biomass production

Abstract The cost‐benefit of riparian buffers to landowners has not been fully understood despite its ecosystem benefits. This study investigates the environmental and economic value of multi‐purpose buffers for biomass production under alternative land‐management scenarios at the watershed scale. The work incorporates the Soil and Water Assessment Tool with a field‐scale tool, the Agriculture Conservation Practice Framework, and cost‐benefit analysis. Our work took place in the agriculturally dominant Raccoon River watershed (RRW) in Iowa. The cost analysis includes implementing and harvesting the switchgrass buffers, the value of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer, and the forgone income of cropland to determine the net return under 12 alternative feedstock scenarios. We estimated that 14 603 Mg of nitrogen and 2563 Mg of phosphorus runoffs can be intercepted by riparian buffers in the RRW, representing a nutrient loss reduction of 11% of nitrogen and 26% of phosphorus. These nutrients are valued at $1.31 million (M) for phosphorus and $1.24 M for nitrogen as fertilizers. The trapped nutrients account for 12% of the riparian buffers’ total cost. We found that net economic returns increase with biomass market price, increase with maintenance fertilizer application, and decrease with the cropland areas that are converted to buffers. Under current land management, a biomass market price at $60 per dry ton of biomass would be economically viable at the sub‐basin level when maintenance fertilizers are applied. At $80 per dry ton, all 108 sub‐basins in the RRW would be profitable up to $517 a year. The results highlight the trade‐offs between water quality and profitability. Published 2021. This article is a U.S. Government work and is inthe public domain in the USA. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining published by Society of Industrial Chemistry and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Yield, Biogenic Emissions, and Carbon Sequestration in Southeastern Cropping Systems With Winter Carinata

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production from lipids is a technologically mature approach for replacing conventional fossil fuel use in the aviation sector, and there is increasing demand for such feedstocks. The oilseed Brassica carinata (known as Ethiopian mustard or simply carinata) is a promising SAF feedstock that can be grown as a supplemental cash crop over the winter fallow season of various annual crop rotations in the Southeast US, avoiding land use changes and potentially achieving some of the soil carbon sequestration and ecosystem service benefits of winter cover crops. However, carinata may require more intensive management than traditional cover crops, potentially leading to additional soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through increased carbon losses from soil tillage and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from nitrogen fertilizer application. In this work, the 2017 version of the process-based DayCent ecosystem model was used to establish initial expectations for the total regional SAF production potential and associated soil GHG emissions when carinata is integrated as a winter crop into the existing crop rotations across its current suitability range in southern Alabama, southern Georgia, and northern Florida. Using data from academic and industry carinata field trials in the region, DayCent was calibrated to reproduce carinata yield, nitrogen response, harvest index, and biomass carbon-to-nitrogen ratio. The resulting model was then used to simulate the integration of carinata every third winter across all 2.1 Mha of actively cultivated cropland in the study area. The model predicted regional average yields of 2.9–3.0 Mg carinata seed per hectare depending on crop management assumptions. That results in the production of more than two million Mg of carinata seed annually across the study area, enough to supply approximately one billion liters of SAF. Conventional management of carinata led to only modest increases in soil carbon storage that were largely offset by additional N2O emissions. Climate-smart management via adopting no-till carinata establishment or using poultry litter as a nitrogen source resulted in a substantial net soil GHG sink (0.23–0.31 Mg CO 2 e ha -1 y -1 , or 0.24–0.32 Mg CO2e per Mg of seed produced) at the farms where carinata is cultivated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scaling from Flux Towers to Ecosystem Models: Regional Constraints on Carbon Cycle Processes from Atmospheric Carbonyl Sulfide (Final Report)

DOE supported research suggests that gross primary productivity (GPP) is largely underestimated by global earth system models [Welp et al., 2011], reflecting the persistent challenge in extrapolating from local-scale GPP observations to global-scale earth system models. This poor understanding of GPP at large spatial scales is of particular concern in tropical forests. In tropical forests, some earth systems models forecast a powerful feedback between a warming climate and a decline in GPP resulting in forest dieback. While this simulated feedback is intensely debated, we lack robust large-scale constraints on GPP that are needed to resolve this debate. In particular, carbon dioxide measurements provide valuable information on net carbon flux, but not on the gross flux associated with GPP. Here we conducted a study of regional-to-global scale GPP using atmospheric carbonyl sulfide to provide a new constraint on GPP mechanisms in earth system models. Our project activities integrated modeling, in situ measurement, and remote sensing techniques to resolve GPP for the Amazon as well as global scale trends. The results of this work included initiating airborne carbonyl sulfide monitoring in the Amazon, training for postdocs and graduate students at a Hispanic Serving Institution, fundamental advances in carbonyl sulfide budgets [e.g. Hilton et al., Nature Climate Change, 2017], and high-profile publications that focused on GPP trends for the Amazon [Stinecipher et al., GRL, 2022] and global historical GPP trends [Campbell, et al., Nature, 2017]. Based on the suggestion of our DOE program manager, we published a state-of-the-science commentary to the scientific community on GPP monitoring with COS [Campbell et al., EOS, 2017] which was selected as the cover story. DOE support was acknowledged in all reports. The importance of this research to understanding climate change was communicated to the general public through community seminars (Rotary, Public Libraries, State Parks), an op-ed (SF Chronicle), and interviews in the mass media including two stories in the New York Times (4/5/17; 7/30/18), one of which was especially widely read after it was featured in the New York Time’s Quote of the Day.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Alternating Conditional Expectations: Introducing a Non‐Parametric Statistical Method to Interpret Long‐Term Greenhouse Gas Flux Measurements Over Semi‐Arid and Wetland Ecosystems

Abstract We explore the potential of using a non‐parametric statistical method called Alternating Conditional Expectations, ACE, to quantify functional relationships in biogeosciences. Here, ACE is used to quantify the non‐linear and multi‐faceted responses of greenhouse gas fluxes to a set of biophysical forcings, when the shapes of those response surfaces are unknown. We evaluated the statistical method over two contrasting ecosystems and two contrasting time steps. One case involved quantifying the biophysical controls of water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes over a semi‐arid oak savanna using daily integrated fluxes. The other case evaluated the responses of CO 2 and methane (CH 4 ) flux measurements to a set of biophysical forcings at a restored tidal wetland using thirty‐minute averages. The statistical model, based on 4 independent variables, explained up over 90% of the variation in daily integrated flux densities of water vapor and net carbon dioxide exchange at the savanna site. This fit was defined by distinct non‐linear responses to such drivers as gross primary production, photosynthetically active radiation, air temperature, vapor pressure deficit and soil moisture. At the tidal wetland site, we evaluated net carbon dioxide and methane fluxes with short‐term measurements to capture the influence of rising and falling tides and seasonality in biological activity. The statistical model defined the shape of the forcing of fluxes due to the roles of carbon exudates, water table depth, oxygen level in the water column, temperature and vegetation status. The statistical fits of the greenhouse gas fluxes were less precise than the savanna case. The fetch varies on a run‐to‐run basis as it is comprised of a heterogeneous mosaic of open water and vegetation. Furthermore, it is difficult to monitor the environmental conditions of the archaea and bacteria in the sediments that produce methane and carbon dioxide.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Investigating controls on sea ice algal production using E3SMv1.1-BGC

We present the analysis of global sympagic primary production (PP) from 300 years of pre-industrial and historical simulations of the E3SMv1.1-BGC model. The model includes a novel, eight-element sea ice biogeochemical component, MPAS-Seaice zbgc, which is resolved in three spatial dimensions and uses a vertical transport scheme based on internal brine dynamics. Modeled ice algal chlorophyll-a concentrations and column-integrated values are broadly consistent with observations, though chl-a profile fractions indicate that upper ice communities of the Southern Ocean are underestimated. Simulations of polar integrated sea ice PP support the lower bound in published estimates for both polar regions with mean Arctic values of 7.5 and 15.5 TgC/a in the Southern Ocean. However, comparisons of the polar climate state with observations, using a maximal bound for ice algal growth rates, suggest that the Arctic lower bound is a significant underestimation driven by biases in ocean surface nitrate, and that correction of these biases supports as much as 60.7 TgC/a of net Arctic PP. Simulated Southern Ocean sympagic PP is predominantly light-limited, and regional patterns, particularly in the coastal high production band, are found to be negatively correlated with snow thickness.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hot Springs and Geysers: Exploring Historical and Modern Impacts of Geothermal Energy Production on Associated Natural Surface Systems and Standardizing Management Practices

Surface thermal features, most notably hot springs and geysers are increasingly being recognized for their importance to ecosystems, indigenous cultures, and in some cases agriculture, recreation, and tourism. Geothermal project development poses a potential risk to these natural features but current regulatory requirements for assessing and managing these risks during exploration, permitting and monitoring are somewhat inconsistent and unpredictable across different geothermal fields. This has resulted in uncertainty and increases in exploration risk for geothermal energy developers that have led to costly project delays, cancellations, or hesitation to commit. Varying regulatory requirements may also influence public perception, fostering confusion, distrust and ultimately opposition to geothermal projects, further contributing to project delays or cancellations. At a time when there is an increasing urgency for reliable baseload clean energy, geothermal is a net-zero, renewable solution that additionally provides access to more equitable and environmentally just clean power. Continued integration of geothermal energy into the national energy roadmap can be facilitated through consistent and predictable permitting, providing regulators the framework they need, developers a clear path forward, and transparency that the public deserves. This project, currently in its beginning phases, seeks to address this important issue by providing a technical basis from which to build a preliminary protocol for assessing and managing potential impacts from new or existing geothermal energy projects to surface thermal features and their associated ecosystems. Development of this preliminary protocol will be informed by (1) a literature review of well-documented case studies in the western U.S. and New Zealand to understand the range of conditions that exemplify geothermal-surface thermal systems; (2) development of generic illustrative conceptual-numerical models to quantify, understand, and predict the first-order controls (e.g., pressure and permeability) on surface flows; and (3) additional independent and scientifically rigorous evaluations of geothermal-surface thermal system case studies from the Basin and Range Province that incorporate publicly available data as well as data provided by industry through data-sharing agreements. Learning from the successes of the process used to develop the Induced Seismicity Management Protocol (ISMP), we ultimately aim to use these initial efforts as a springboard for establishing a surface thermal feature management working group that will work collaboratively to finalize the protocol as well as co-create recommended best practices for implementation. We envision that the working group will primarily be composed of representatives from regulatory entities, government agencies, Tribes, academia, national laboratories, and industry, and will include early and regular engagement with community organizations and environmental groups. This will help ensure broad acceptance and implementation of the protocol, which will facilitate a more consistent, predictable, and standardized regulatory process, and help to ensure that geothermal energy continues to provide a reliable source of clean energy, and a pathway to achieving greater energy equity in the U.S.

Best Practices↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Northern Hemisphere Growing Season Net Carbon Flux in Climate Models Using Aircraft Observations

Understanding terrestrial ecosystems and their response to anthropogenic climate change requires quantification of land-atmosphere carbon exchange. However, top-down and bottom-up estimates of large-scale land-atmosphere fluxes, including the northern extratropical growing season net flux (GSNF), show significant discrepancies. We developed a data-driven metric for the GSNF using atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration observations collected during the High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research Pole-to-Pole Observations and Atmospheric Tomography Mission flight campaigns. This aircraft-derived metric is bias-corrected using three independent atmospheric inversion systems. We estimate the northern extratropical GSNF to be 5.7 ± 0.3 Pg C and use it to evaluate net biosphere productivity from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6) models. While the model-to-model spread in the GSNF has decreased in the CMIP6 models relative to that of the CMIP5 models, there is still disagreement on the magnitude and timing of seasonal carbon uptake with most models underestimating the GSNF and overestimating the length of the growing season relative to the observations. We also use an emergent constraint approach to estimate annual northern extratropical gross primary productivity to be 56 ± 17 Pg C, heterotrophic respiration to be 25 ± 13 Pg C, and net primary productivity to be 28 ± 12 Pg C. The flux inferred from these aircraft observations provides an additional constraint on large-scale gross fluxes in prognostic Earth system models that may ultimately improve our ability to accurately predict carbon-climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A New Coupled Biogeochemical Modeling Approach Provides Accurate Predictions of Methane and Carbon Dioxide Fluxes Across Diverse Tidal Wetlands

Abstract Tidal wetlands provide valuable ecosystem services, including storing large amounts of carbon. However, the net exchanges of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) in tidal wetlands are highly uncertain. While several biogeochemical models can operate in tidal wetlands, they have yet to be parameterized and validated against high‐frequency, ecosystem‐scale CO 2 and CH 4 flux measurements across diverse sites. We paired the Cohort Marsh Equilibrium Model (CMEM) with a version of the PEPRMT model called PEPRMT‐Tidal, which considers the effects of water table height, sulfate, and nitrate availability on CO 2 and CH 4 emissions. Using a model‐data fusion approach, we parameterized the model with three sites and validated it with two independent sites, with representation from the three marine coasts of North America. Gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (R eco ) modules explained, on average, 73% of the variation in CO 2 exchange with low model error (normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) <1). The CH 4 module also explained the majority of variance in CH 4 emissions in validation sites ( R 2 = 0.54; nRMSE = 1.15). The PEPRMT‐Tidal‐CMEM model coupling is a key advance toward constraining estimates of greenhouse gas emissions across diverse North American tidal wetlands. Further analyses of model error and case studies during changing salinity conditions guide future modeling efforts regarding four main processes: (a) the influence of salinity and nitrate on GPP, (b) the influence of laterally transported dissolved inorganic C on R eco , (c) heterogeneous sulfate availability and methylotrophic methanogenesis impacts on surface CH 4 emissions, and (d) CH 4 responses to non‐periodic changes in salinity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Revisiting “Additional Carbon”: Tracking Atmosphere–Ecosystem Carbon Exchange to Establish Mitigation and Negative Emissions From Bio-Based Systems

Climate stabilization plans rely heavily on advanced bioenergy and bioproducts for substitution of fossil-based energy sources and materials, and increasingly, for negative emissions via the direct sequestration of biogenic carbon. Yet, there remain persistent, largely unresolved critiques of bioenergy assessment methodology, particularly in the areas of land use and biogenic carbon accounting. The concept of “additional carbon” calls for evaluating the climate performance of bio-based systems by whether feedstock production creates measurable new local agro-ecosystem uptake of carbon from the atmosphere. This concept is challenging to operationalize for first-generation biofuels, and has largely been advanced as a negative critique. However, carbon additionality is more straightforward to establish—and less critical to overall system mitigation performance—in advanced bioenergy systems. In this Perspective, I review the additional carbon critique, and why it is analytically challenging to address in first-generation biofuel systems based on conventional food crops with large existing markets. Next, I make a case that carbon additionality (1) is more readily achievable with cellulosic feedstocks, (2) is more directly observable for dedicated biomass crops, and (3) is not a strict requirement for achieving net mitigation in carbon-negative bio-based systems. I end by discussing how centering atmosphere–ecosystem carbon exchanges in bio-based system assessment could create new opportunities for enterprise-scale performance monitoring and verification, augmenting and diversifying the current reliance on model-based life-cycle assessment approaches.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Novel technologies for emission reduction complement conservation agriculture to achieve negative emissions from row-crop production

Plants remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through photosynthesis. Because agriculture’s productivity is based on this process, a combination of technologies to reduce emissions and enhance soil carbon storage can allow this sector to achieve net negative emissions while maintaining high productivity. Unfortunately, current row-crop agricultural practice generates about 5% of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States and European Union. Here, to reduce these emissions, significant effort has been focused on changing farm management practices to maximize soil carbon. In contrast, the potential to reduce emissions has largely been neglected. Through a combination of innovations in digital agriculture, crop and microbial genetics, and electrification, we estimate that a 71% (1,744 kg CO 2 e/ha) reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from row crop agriculture is possible within the next 15 y. Importantly, emission reduction can lower the barrier to broad adoption by proceeding through multiple stages with meaningful improvements that gradually facilitate the transition to net negative practices. Emerging voluntary and regulatory ecosystems services markets will incentivize progress along this transition pathway and guide public and private investments toward technology development. In the difficult quest for net negative emissions, all tools, including emission reduction and soil carbon storage, must be developed to allow agriculture to maintain its critical societal function of provisioning society while, at the same time, generating environmental benefits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating sulfurization as a blue carbon sink in a southern California salt marsh

Blue carbon ecosystems such as seagrass meadows, mangrove forests, and salt marshes are important carbon sinks that can store carbon for millennia. Recently, organic matter sulfurization and pyritization have been proposed as mechanisms of net carbon storage in blue carbon ecosystems. At our study site, organic sulfur that is resistant to acid hydrolysis (protokerogen) is an order of magnitude less abundant than pyrite sulfur, suggesting a dominance of pyritization over sulfurization. The C/N ratios and carbon isotope compositions suggest that nearly half of total organic carbon and ≥ 80% of protokerogen is composed of marsh plant material. Sediment protokerogen appears to be sulfurized based on its low δ 34 S values (− 10‰), abundance of disulfides, and higher S/C ratio (~ 1.0%) relative to potential biogenic sulfur sources. However, the interpretation of protokerogen δ 34 S values is complicated by the wide range in sulfur isotope compositions of marsh plants. Evidence for sulfurization occurs within the shallowest sediments across different vegetation zones, yielding consistent products, while pyritization appears to be more sensitive to alterations in sediment redox conditions. Based on organic sulfur and pyrite content, sulfurization may be a more spatially consistent process than pyritization, with implications for carbon storage. The relative abundance of pyrite and protokerogen organic sulfur indicates that pyritization is favored at our study site, but this is likely to vary across the spectrum of blue carbon ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Carbon Cycle Extremes and Attributing Their Causes Under Climate and Land Use and Land Cover Change From 1850 to 2300

The increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) mole fraction affects global climate through radiative (trapping longwave radiation) and physiological effects (reduction of plant transpiration). We use the simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1-BGC) forced with Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 to investigate climate-vegetation feedbacks from 1850 to the year 2300. Human-induced land use and land cover change (LULCC), through biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes, alter the climate and modify photosynthetic activity. The changing characteristics of extreme anomalies in photosynthesis, referred to as carbon cycle extremes, increase the uncertainty of terrestrial ecosystems to act as a net carbon sink. However, the role of LULCC in altering carbon cycle extremes under business-as-usual (continuously rising) CO 2 emissions is unknown. Here we show that LULCC magnifies the intensity, frequency, and extent of carbon cycle extremes, resulting in a net reduction in expected photosynthetic activity in the future. We found that large temporally contiguous negative carbon cycle extremes are due to a persistent decrease in soil moisture, which is triggered by declines in precipitation. With LULCC and global warming, vegetation exhibits increased vulnerability to hot and dry environmental conditions, increasing the frequency of fire events and resulting in considerable losses in photosynthetic activity. While most regions show strengthening of negative carbon cycle extremes, a few locations show a weakening effect driven by declining vegetation cover or benign climate conditions for photosynthesis. Increasing hot, dry, and fire-driven carbon cycle extremes are essential for improving carbon cycle modeling and estimation of ecosystem responses to LULCC and rising CO 2 mole fractions. Moreover, large aberrations in vegetation productivity represent potential and growing threats to human lives, wildlife, and food security.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗