Reliability analysis of complex systems using subset simulations with Hamiltonian Neural Networks
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97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
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Using convolutional neural networks to detect edge localized modes in DIII-D from Doppler backscattering measurements
In H-mode tokamak plasmas, the plasma is sometimes ejected beyond the edge transport barrier. These events are known as edge localized modes (ELMs). ELMs cause a loss of energy and damage the vessel walls. Understanding the physics of ELMs, and by extension, how to detect and mitigate them, is an important challenge. In this paper, we focus on two diagnostic methods—deuterium-alpha (D α ) spectroscopy and Doppler backscattering (DBS). The former detects ELMs by measuring Balmer alpha emission, while the latter uses microwave radiation to probe the plasma. DBS has the advantages of having a higher temporal resolution and robustness to damage. These advantages of DBS diagnostic may be beneficial for future operational tokamaks, and thus, data processing techniques for DBS should be developed in preparation. In sight of this, we explore the training of neural networks to detect ELMs from DBS data, using D α data as the ground truth. With shots found in the DIII-D database, the model is trained to classify each time step based on the occurrence of an ELM event. The results are promising. When tested on shots similar to those used for training, the model is capable of consistently achieving a high f1-score of 0.93. Furthermore, this score is a performance metric for imbalanced datasets that ranges between 0 and 1. We evaluate the performance of our neural network on a variety of ELMs in different high confinement regimes (grassy ELM, RMP mitigated, and wide-pedestal), finding broad applicability. Beyond ELMs, our work demonstrates the wider feasibility of applying neural networks to data from DBS diagnostic.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Machine learning for single-ended event reconstruction in PROSPECT experiment
The Precision Reactor Oscillation and Spectrum Experiment, PROSPECT, was a segmented antineutrino detector that successfully operated at the High Flux Isotope Reactor in Oak Ridge, TN, during its 2018 run. Despite challenges with photomultiplier tube base failures affecting some segments, innovative machine learning approaches were employed to perform position and energy reconstruction, and particle classification. This work highlights the effectiveness of convolutional neural networks and graph convolutional networks in enhancing data analysis. By leveraging these techniques, a 3.3% increase in effective statistics was achieved compared to traditional methods, showcasing their potential to improve analysis performance. Furthermore, these machine learning methodologies offer promising applications for other segmented particle detectors, underscoring their versatility and impact.
47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
Emissions Characterization for Ammonia Fuel Blends in an Enclosed Swirl-Stabilized Diffusion Burner
This study investigates ammonia flames using the enclosed Sydney swirl burner (ESSB), focusing on detailed global emissions measurements. Emissions were measured via Fourier-transform-infrared (FTIR) spectrometer, utilizing a heated, long-path absorption cell. Hot, wet measurements of pertinent species were collected, and concentrations were determined via lineshape fitting in conjunction with the HITRAN database. Results show that partially cracked ammonia compositions yield lower emissions compared to pure NH3/H2, and small amounts of NH3 addition to CH4-containing fuel blends exhibit high levels of NOx and CO, with measurable HCN and unburnt CH4. Equilibrium calculations suggest trade-offs between chemical timescale, heat loss, and mixing. Future work will explore emissions sampling procedures and expand analysis using chemical reactor network modelling.
ammonia combustion↗
Braxton Marlatt Intern Poster
The Internet of Things (IoT) encompasses a vast network of interconnected devices embedded with software, sensors, and network connectivity, enabling data collection and exchange. While IoT technology revolutionizes various industries, it also introduces significant security challenges. This research focuses on enhancing IoT security through the implementation of Zero Trust Architecture concepts, specifically targeting the Network and Device pillars of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency’s Zero Trust Maturity Model. By generating Codified Attack Surfaces (CAS) using custom Structured Threat Information eXpression bundles, this project aims to provide enhanced visibility into network communications, detect vulnerabilities in device firmware, and improve the overall security posture for IoT devices and networks. The methodology involves defining custom STIX schema and objects, collecting data from intra-IoT traffic, external network traffic, and firmware analysis, and automating the conversion and correlation of this data into STIX bundles. The automated generation of attack surfaces offers comprehensive insights into activity, vulnerabilities, and anomalies within an IoT environment, enabling proactive threat identification and mitigation.
24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
RU-net for automatic characterization of TRISO fuel cross sections
During irradiation, phenomena such as kernel swelling and buffer densification may impact the performance of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel. Post-irradiation microscopy is often used to identify these irradiation-induced morphologic changes. However, each fuel compact generally contains thousands of TRISO particles. Manually performing the work to get statistical information on these phenomena is cumbersome and subjective. Here, to reduce the subjectivity inherent in that process and to accelerate data analysis, we used convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to automatically segment cross-sectional images of microscopic TRISO layers. CNNs are a class of machine-learning algorithms specifically designed for processing structured grid data. They have gained popularity in recent years due to their remarkable performance in various computer vision tasks, including image classification, object detection, and image segmentation. In this research, we generated a large irradiated TRISO layer dataset with more than 2,000 microscopic images of cross-sectional TRISO particles and the corresponding annotated images. Based on these annotated images, we used different CNNs to automatically segment different TRISO layers. These CNNs include RU-Net (developed in this study), as well as three existing architectures: U-Net, Residual Network (ResNet), and Attention U-Net. The preliminary results show that the model based on RU-Net performs best in terms of Intersection over Union (IoU). Using CNN models, we can expedite the analysis of TRISO particle cross sections, significantly reducing the manual labor involved and improving the objectivity of the segmentation results.
11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Wide‐Field Bond Quality Evaluation Using Frequency Domain Thermoreflectance with Deep Neural Network Feature Reconstruction
Heterogeneous integration of microelectronic components provides a pathway to improve circuit/component performance; however, this comes with assembly challenges, in particular due to complex interfaces via subsurface bump bonds. The ability of these bonds to transmit electrical signals and conduct heat to the carrier substrate limits component performance. In this work, hyperspectral frequency‐domain thermoreflectance (FDTR) imaging is demonstrated as a robust technique for evaluating the quality of subsurface indium bump bonds in a surrogate microelectronic sample. By performing microscale FDTR imaging with coarse motion image stitching, thermal phase maps that cover a 4 mm by 4 mm field‐of‐view with subsurface feature sensitivity at depths greater than 50 µm are obtained. The resulting FDTR hyperspectral data contains more than three million pixels and reveal the quality of subsurface microbump arrays. Wide‐field analysis of bonded versus gap regions is enabled by deep neural network feature reconstruction, that after training, rapidly provides an interpretable representation of bond quality. Utility of noisy higher frequency FDTR phase maps, i.e., near the computationally predicted sensing depth limit, results in an average prediction error of 11%. Taken together, FDTR with neural network‐based analysis demonstrates subsurface bond monitoring at length scales relevant for heterogeneously integrated microelectronics.
FDTR↗
Overview of High-Power Wireless Charging Systems and Analysis of Polyphase Wireless Charging System Phase Winding and Resonant Tuning Network Connection Configurations
In spite of the high energy efficiency and environmental benefits of electric vehicles (EVs), adoption rates are increasing at a relatively slow pace, primarily because of EVs’ limited range and long charging durations. To reduce EV charging times to be comparable to refueling times of conventional vehicles, extreme fast charging systems are required. Such charging systems would reduce drivers’ range anxiety and enable long-distance interstate travel with EVs. Here, this substantial target in charging rates with 15–20 minutes of recharging times, requires research and development from grid to batteries with advanced charging systems. Wireless power transfer systems for EV charging applications are flexible, convenient, and highly efficient, and they allow automated charging. This paper reviews the power electronics and winding and resonant tuning network configurations for polyphase wireless power transfer systems for high-power wireless charging applications.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Static and Dynamic Thermomechanical Properties of Phase-Separated Epoxy Networks with Tuned Microstructures
Here, polymerization-induced phase separation is a useful method for the construction of heterogeneous epoxy networks with properties exceeding their homogeneous counterparts. In this work, we examine the static and dynamic thermomechanical properties of phase-separated epoxy networks salient to their application as encapsulants. Three heterogeneous epoxy-amine networks with nano-, meso-, and macro-phase-separated morphologies comprised of hard and soft domains are compared to a rigid, unstructured network. The glass transition profiles of the heterogeneous networks are complex, spanning many decades in the frequency domain. The nanophase-separated morphology leads to higher coefficient of thermal expansion, yet surprisingly is characterized by reduced residual stress. Under both quasi-static and dynamic compression (strain rates of order 10 –3 and 10 3 s –1 , respectively), the nanophase-separated network also exhibits higher modulus and strength. In split-Hopkinson bar experiments, the energy dissipation characteristics of the epoxy networks were nearly identical. Curiously, however, the Hugoniot response of the macro-phase-separated network determined by ballistic shockwave analysis indicates a remarkable ability of this material to mitigate shockwave propagation in comparison to many homogeneous and heterogeneous polymer materials. Collectively, this work reveals several previously unreported phenomena with respect to structure–property relationships in phase-separated epoxy networks, illustrating the potential value of systematically tuned microstructures for optimization of application-specific physical properties.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Holistic Small-Signal Stability Analysis for Large-Scale Inverter-Intensive Power Systems with Coupled and Full-Order Dynamics from Control Systems and Power Networks
The increasing penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) into the existing power systems introduces tremendous benefits for enhanced sustainability but also poses inevitable challenges in terms of insufficient inertia, potential instability, and complex network dynamics, among others. However, the additional coupling introduced by the interactions among gridfollowing (GFL) and grid-forming (GFM) IBRs and the other components (i.e., synchronous generators [SGs], loads, and network, etc.) has not been clearly explored. A holistic, scalable, and quantitative stability analysis framework with the control systems and power networks is still missing. Here, in this paper, to fill in the technical gaps, a holistic small-signal model of the entire system with both rotating generation units and IBRs is established. An extended power flow model with operation dynamics from both generator control schemes and power networks is proposed to provide the varying steady-state operating points for small-signal modeling. The proposed method is compared with MATLAB solvers, and the results show that the proposed approach has a minimum calculation time, which can be less than 12 seconds for a large-scale power system with up to 2,000 buses. Furthermore, a quantitative method is developed to identify the impacts of IBRs on system performance with emphases on the potential stability issues with GFL IBRs, additional benefits of employing GFM IBRs, the feasibility of replacing SGs with GFM IBRs, and the impact of penetration level of different kinds of generation units. Finally, a field island power system is used to verify the proposed approach, and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) tests are provided to further demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed analysis.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Improved Subseasonal Forecasting of Extreme Polar Vortices Using Machine Learning
Our research was focused on forecasting the position and shape of the winter stratospheric polar vortex at a subseasonal timescale of 15 days in advance. To achieve this, we employed both statistical and neural network machine learning techniques. The analysis was performed on 42 winter seasons of reanalysis data provided by NASA giving us a total of 6,342 days of data. The state of the polar vortex for determined by using geometric moments to calculate the centroid latitude and the aspect ratio of an ellipse fit onto the vortex. Timeseries for thirty additional precursors were calculated to help improve the predictive capabilities of the algorithm. Feature importance of these precursors was performed using random forest to measure the predictive importance and the ideal number of precursors. Then, using the precursors identified as important, various statistical methods were tested for predictive accuracy with random forest and nearest neighbor performing the best. An echo state network, a type of recurrent neural network that features sparsely connected hidden layer and a reduced number of trainable parameters that allows for rapid training and testing, was also implemented for the forecasting problem. Hyperparameter tuning was performed for each methods using a subset of the training data. The algorithms were trained and tuned on the first 41 years of data, then tested for accuracy on the final year. In general, the centroid latitude of the polar vortex proved easier to predict than the aspect ratio across all algorithms. Random forest outperformed other statistical forecasting algorithms overall but struggled to predict extreme values. Forecasting from echo state network suggested a strong predictive capability past 15 days, but further work is required to fully realize the potential of recurrent neural network approaches.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Uncertainty propagation in feed-forward neural network models
We develop new uncertainty propagation methods for feed-forward neural network architectures with leaky ReLU activation functions subject to random perturbations in the input vectors. In particular, we derive analytical expressions for the probability density function (PDF) of the neural network output and its statistical moments as a function of the input uncertainty and the parameters of the network, i.e., weights and biases. A key finding is that an appropriate linearization of the leaky ReLU activation function yields accurate statistical results even for large perturbations in the input vectors. This can be attributed to the way information propagates through the network. We also propose new analytically tractable Gaussian copula surrogate models to approximate the full joint PDF of the neural network output. To validate our theoretical results, we conduct Monte Carlo simulations and a thorough error analysis on a multi-layer neural network representing a nonlinear integro-differential operator between two polynomial function spaces. Our findings demonstrate excellent agreement between the theoretical predictions and Monte Carlo simulations.
MLP networks↗
Geometric Interpretation of the Cluster Location Problem Part I: Theory
We present a new framing of the seismic location problem using principles drawn from differential geometry. Our interpretation relies upon the common assumption that travel times observed across a network are continuous, differentiable functions of source location. In consequence, travel‐time functions constitute a differentiable map between the source region and a Riemannian manifold. The manifold is said to be the image of the source region embedded in a generally high‐dimension travel‐time vector space. A cluster of events in the source region has an image of discrete points on the manifold, that, except in the simplest cases, cannot be viewed directly. However, it is possible to project the image of a cluster into a tangent space of the manifold for direct visualization. The projection operator can be computed directly from the data without a velocity model, but produces a distorted rendering of the cluster geometry. With a model we can predict the distortions and correct them to estimate cluster geometry. We develop these points with the simplest possible example, one for which direct visualization of the manifold is possible, using the example as an introduction to the relevant concepts from differential geometry in a familiar setting. The tangent space, a local linearization of the manifold, plays a key role. We develop a metric to estimate the limits of linearization, that is, to determine when the curvature of the manifold invalidates the linear assumption. We also examine the interplay of model error, inadequate network geometry, and pick error. We then generalize our results from the simple case to the general case of 3D source regions observed by general networks. Although we do suggest a new “project and correct” method for location, we do not develop it into a practical algorithm. In conclusion, our intention rather is to highlight new analytical methods grounded in differential geometry.
East Pacific Ocean Islands↗
Flow dynamics and heat transfer in simplified battery energy storage systems with heated battery modules
Large-scale energy storage systems (ESSs) composed of batteries show promise in addressing current energy challenges, but dissipation of generated heat is important. Here, this paper focuses on buoyant convective flows in simplified ESS battery racks. Natural convection is not generally the primary cooling strategy but can be important in abnormal scenarios where there is module overheat or potentially thermal runaway. We use computational fluid dynamics to investigate the flow dynamics and heat transfer mechanisms in a simplified parameterized rack design. Despite its simplicity, this configuration produces many of the relevant features expected in real ESSs without details of module geometry or hardware, allowing broad conclusions independent of manufacture-specific designs. We start by providing visualizations of the flowfield and measurements of entrainment, heat flux, and pressure. To characterize the dependence on the system parameters, we develop an integral-scale analysis of the average temperature equation to highlight the dominant source terms. We use results from this analysis to derive a steady network model composed of simple algebraic expressions to provide first-order predictions of entrainment through the rack. The network model leads to a linear scaling of the Reynolds number based on convective mass flux with respect to the Grashof number based on the heat source. We deduce empirical relationships that relate the heat exchanged between modules using a surface-averaged Nusselt number as a function of the local Reynolds and Rayleigh numbers. Lastly, we investigate how space between the modules and rack in the spanwise direction creates flow bypass, resulting in different flow pathways.
Battery thermal management↗
Hyperspectral Detection of the Fluorescence Shift between Chirality-Sorted Empty and Water-Filled Single-Wall Carbon Nanotube Enantiomers
Single-wall carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) have extraordinary electronic and optical properties that depend strongly on their exact chiral structure and their interaction with their inner and outer environment. The fluorescence (PL) of semiconducting SWCNTs, for instance, will shift depending on the molecules with which the SWCNT’s hollow core is filled. These interaction-induced shifts are challenging to resolve on the ensemble level in samples containing a mixture of different filling contents due to the relatively large inhomogeneous line width of the ensemble SWCNT PL compared to the size of these shifts. To circumvent this inhomogeneous broadening, single-tube spectroscopy and hyperspectral imaging are often applied, which until now required time-consuming statistical studies. Here, we present hyperspectral PL microscopy combined with automated SWCNT segmenting based on either principal component analysis or a convolutional neural network, capable of both spatially and spectrally resolving the PL along the length of many individual SWCNTs at the same time and automatically fitting peak positions and line widths of individual SWCNTs. The methodology is demonstrated by accurately determining the emission shifts and line widths of thousands of left- and right-handed empty and water-filled SWCNTs coated with a chiral surfactant, resulting in four statistical distributions which cannot be resolved in ensemble spectroscopy of unsorted samples. The results demonstrate a robust method to quickly probe ensemble properties with single-enantiomer spectral resolution. Moreover, it promises to be an absolute quantitative method to characterize the relative abundances of SWCNTs with different handedness or filling content in macroscopic samples, simply by counting individual species.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Disentangling atmospheric, hydrological, and coupling uncertainties in compound flood modeling within a coupled Earth system model
Compound riverine and coastal flooding is usually driven by complex interactions among meteorological, hydrological, and ocean extremes. However, existing efforts to model this phenomenon often do not integrate hydrological processes across atmosphere–land–river–ocean systems, leading to substantial uncertainties that have not been fully examined. To bridge this gap, we leverage the new capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) that enable a multi-component framework that integrates coastally refined atmospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic components. We evaluate compound uncertainties arising from two-way land–river–ocean coupling in E3SM and track the cascading meteorological and hydrological uncertainties through ensemble simulations over the Delaware River basin and estuary during Hurricane Irene (2011). Our findings highlight the importance of two-way river–ocean coupling to compound flood modeling and demonstrate E3SM's capability in capturing compound flood extent near the coast, with a hit rate over 0.75. Our study shows the growing uncertainties that transition from atmospheric forcings to flood distribution and severity. Furthermore, an analysis based on artificial neural networks is used to assess the roles of hydrological drivers, such as infiltration and soil moisture, in the generation of compound flooding. The response of compound floods to tropical cyclones (TCs) is found to be susceptible to these often overlooked drivers. For instance, the flooded area could increase more than 2-fold (∼2.4) if Hurricane Irene were preceded by an extreme antecedent soil moisture condition (AMC). The results not only support the use of a multi-component framework for interactive flooding processes, but also underscore the necessity of broader definitions of compound flooding that encompass the simultaneous occurrence of intense precipitation, storm surge, and high AMC during TCs.
Feng, Dongyu [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗
MSU IETC ML for Modbus (AN EDGE)
This study explores machine learning for decoding Modbus RTU data using K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) models. An initial KNN model trained on 8,000 packets achieved 95.15% accuracy. Although ML improves generalization, accuracy still falls short of deterministic methods. These findings have implications for Modbus traffic analysis, intrusion detection in industrial networks, and adaptive error correction in real-time monitoring systems. By refining ML-based decoding, future work could enable more efficient anomaly detection and predictive maintenance in industrial automation and cybersecurity applications.
Communication Protocol↗