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NASA NTRS1966

Log-normal model for microbial survival in heat sterilization

An analytical model is developed for the survival times of organisms in heat sterilization in which the probability of inactivation as a function of exposure time is log-normally distributed. Experimental data is examined relative to this model and it is concluded that the model is valid except during the initial period of heating when an additional interaction between the organisms and their surrounding medium appears to be present. At long heating times, the log-normal model appears more accurate for extrapolating to low survival probabilities than the usual logarithmic survivor curves and is generally more conservative.

SURVIVAL↗

NASA NTRS2012

Particle Morphology and Size Results from the Smoke Aerosol Measurement Experiment-2

Results are presented from the Reflight of the Smoke Aerosol Measurement Experiment (SAME-2) which was conducted during Expedition 24 (July-September 2010). The reflight experiment built upon the results of the original flight during Expedition 15 by adding diagnostic measurements and expanding the test matrix. Five different materials representative of those found in spacecraft (Teflon, Kapton, cotton, silicone rubber and Pyrell) were heated to temperatures below the ignition point with conditions controlled to provide repeatable sample surface temperatures and air flow. The air flow past the sample during the heating period ranged from quiescent to 8 cm/s. The smoke was initially collected in an aging chamber to simulate the transport time from the smoke source to the detector. This effective transport time was varied by holding the smoke in the aging chamber for times ranging from 11 to 1800 s. Smoke particle samples were collected on Transmission Electron Microscope (TEM) grids for post-flight analysis. The TEM grids were analyzed to observe the particle morphology and size parameters. The diagnostics included a prototype two-moment smoke detector and three different measures of moments of the particle size distribution. These moment diagnostics were used to determine the particle number concentration (zeroth moment), the diameter concentration (first moment), and the mass concentration (third moment). These statistics were combined to determine the diameter of average mass and the count mean diameter and, by assuming a log-normal distribution, the geometric mean diameter and the geometric standard deviations can also be calculated. Overall the majority of the average smoke particle sizes were found to be in the 200 nm to 400 nm range with the quiescent cases producing some cases with substantially larger particles.

Urban, David L.↗

NASA NTRS1974

An analysis of fracture trace patterns in areas of flat-lying sedimentary rocks for the detection of buried geologic structure

Two study areas in a cratonic platform underlain by flat-lying sedimentary rocks were analyzed to determine if a quantitative relationship exists between fracture trace patterns and their frequency distributions and subsurface structural closures which might contain petroleum. Fracture trace lengths and frequency (number of fracture traces per unit area) were analyzed by trend surface analysis and length frequency distributions also were compared to a standard Gaussian distribution. Composite rose diagrams of fracture traces were analyzed using a multivariate analysis method which grouped or clustered the rose diagrams and their respective areas on the basis of the behavior of the rays of the rose diagram. Analysis indicates that the lengths of fracture traces are log-normally distributed according to the mapping technique used. Fracture trace frequency appeared higher on the flanks of active structures and lower around passive reef structures. Fracture trace log-mean lengths were shorter over several types of structures, perhaps due to increased fracturing and subsequent erosion. Analysis of rose diagrams using a multivariate technique indicated lithology as the primary control for the lower grouping levels. Groupings at higher levels indicated that areas overlying active structures may be isolated from their neighbors by this technique while passive structures showed no differences which could be isolated.

Podwysocki, M. H.↗

NASA NTRS1980

A hill-sliding strategy for initialization of Gaussian clusters in the multidimensional space

A hill sliding technique was devised to extract Gaussian clusters from the multivariate probability density estimate of sample data for the first step of iterative unsupervised classification. Each cluster was assumed to posses a unimodal normal distribution. A clustering function proposed distinguished elements of a cluster under formation from the rest in the feature space. Initial clusters were extracted one by one according to the hill sliding tactics. A dimensionless cluster compactness parameter was proposed as a universal measure of cluster goodness and used satisfactorily in test runs with LANDSAT multispectral scanner data. The normalized divergence, defined by the cluster divergence divided by the entropy of the entire sample data, was utilized as a general separability measure between clusters. An overall clustering objective function was set forth in terms of cluster covariance matrices, from which the cluster compactness measure could be deduced. Minimal improvement of initial data partitioning was evaluated by this objective function in eliminating scattered sparse data points. The hill sliding clustering technique developed herein has the potential applicability to decomposition any multivariate mixture distribution into a number of unimodal distributions when an appropriate distribution function to the data set is employed.

Park, J. K.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Probabilistic SSME blades structural response under random pulse loading

The purpose is to develop models of random impacts on a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) turbopump blade and to predict the probabilistic structural response of the blade to these impacts. The random loading is caused by the impact of debris. The probabilistic structural response is characterized by distribution functions for stress and displacements as functions of the loading parameters which determine the random pulse model. These parameters include pulse arrival, amplitude, and location. The analysis can be extended to predict level crossing rates. This requires knowledge of the joint distribution of the response and its derivative. The model of random impacts chosen allows the pulse arrivals, pulse amplitudes, and pulse locations to be random. Specifically, the pulse arrivals are assumed to be governed by a Poisson process, which is characterized by a mean arrival rate. The pulse intensity is modelled as a normally distributed random variable with a zero mean chosen independently at each arrival. The standard deviation of the distribution is a measure of pulse intensity. Several different models were used for the pulse locations. For example, three points near the blade tip were chosen at which pulses were allowed to arrive with equal probability. Again, the locations were chosen independently at each arrival. The structural response was analyzed both by direct Monte Carlo simulation and by a semi-analytical method.

Shiao, Michael↗

NASA NTRS1994

Distributions of the interplanetary magnetic field revisited

The adequacy of the power spectrum to characterize the variations of a parameter depends on whether or not the parameter has a Gaussian distribution. We here perform very simple tests of Gaussianity on the distribution. We here perform very simple tests of Gaussianity on the distributions of the magnitudes of the interplanetary magnetic field, and on the distributions of the components; that is, we find the first four cumulants of the distributions (mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis) and their solar cycle variations. We find, consistent with other recent analyses, that the traditional distributions of the 1-hour averaged magnitude are not distributed normally or lognomally as has often been assumed and the 1-hour averaged z component is found to have a nonzero kurtosis. Thus the power spectrum is insufficient to completely characterize these variations and polyspectra are needed. We have isolated variations in the 1/f frequency region of the spectrum and show that the distributions of the magnitudes have nonzero skewness and kurtosis, the magnitudes are not distributed lognormally, and the distributions of the components have nonzero kurtosis. Thus higher-order spectra are again needed for a full characterization.

Feynman, Joan↗

NASA NTRS2022

Non-Gaussian Distributions of TOA SW Flux as Observed by MISR and CERES

The Top of Atmosphere (TOA) shortwave (SW) flux, converted from Terra Multi angle Imaging‐SpectroRadiometer (MISR) narrow band albedos, is compared with that measured from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES). We describe the probability density function (PDF) of the monthly TOA SW flux and how the statistical third moment, skewness, can impact the quantification of the flux. The PDF of the SW flux is not normally distributed but positively skewed. In both sets of observations, the near-global (80S-80N) median value of the SW flux is ≈3 W/m 2 less than the mean value, due to the positive skewness of the distribution. The near-global mean TOA SW flux converted from MISR is about 7 W/m 2 (≈7%) less than CERES measured flux during the last two decades. Surprisingly, hemispheric asymmetry exists with TOA SW observations from Terra platform. SH reflects 3.92 W/m 2 and 1.15 W/m 2 more mean SW flux than NH, from MISR and CERES Single Scanner Footprint products, respectively. We can infer that the offsetting by morning clouds in the SH is greater than the effect of hemispheric imbalance of SW flux caused by different land masses in two hemispheres. While the characteristics of the two SW fluxes broadly agree with each other, differences in the regional PDF from two different SW fluxes are substantially different over high cloud regions and high altitude regions. Our analysis shows that some parts of the different skewness from two measurements may be attributed to the different calibration of the radiance anisotropy over high cloud scenes.

satellite measurements↗

NASA NTRS1984

High-frequency wave normals in the solar wind

High-frequency (0.01-0.04 Hz) magnetic fluctuations in 506 ten-minute intervals of contemporaneous Explorer 35 and Apollo 12 measurements made in the solar wind near the morning side of the earth's bow shock show the presence of a large population of disturbances resembling Alfven waves. Each wavefront normal is systematically aligned (median deviation = 35 deg) with the associated ten-minute average of the magnetic field. Because of variability in the direction of this ten-minute average, from one interval to another, the coupled wavefront-normal distribution is nearly isotropic in solar ecliptic coordinates, in contrast with the results of other studies of waves at much lower frequency indicating outward propagation from the sun. Presumably the high frequency waves discussed here are stirred into isotropy (in solar ecliptic coordinates) by following the low frequency fluctuations. As these waves maintain their alignment of wavefront-normal with the field ten-minute average despite the great variation of the field ten-minute average, a strong physical alignment constraint is inferred.

Herbert, F.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Probabilistic analysis of a materially nonlinear structure

A probabilistic finite element program is used to perform probabilistic analysis of a materially nonlinear structure. The program used in this study is NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structure Under Stress), under development at Southwest Research Institute. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the radial stress of a thick-walled cylinder under internal pressure is computed and compared with the analytical solution. In addition, sensitivity factors showing the relative importance of the input random variables are calculated. Significant plasticity is present in this problem and has a pronounced effect on the probabilistic results. The random input variables are the material yield stress and internal pressure with Weibull and normal distributions, respectively. The results verify the ability of NESSUS to compute the CDF and sensitivity factors of a materially nonlinear structure. In addition, the ability of the Advanced Mean Value (AMV) procedure to assess the probabilistic behavior of structures which exhibit a highly nonlinear response is shown. Thus, the AMV procedure can be applied with confidence to other structures which exhibit nonlinear behavior.

Millwater, H. R.↗

NASA NTRS1995

New Observations of Subarcsecond Photospheric Bright Points

We have used an interference filter centered at 4305 A within the bandhead of the CH radical (the 'G band') and real-time image selection at the Swedish Vacuum Solar Telescope on La Palma to produce very high contrast images of subarcsecond photospheric bright points at all locations on the solar disk. During the 6 day period of 15-20 Sept. 1993 we observed active region NOAA 7581 from its appearance on the East limb to a near-disk-center position on 20 Sept. A total of 1804 bright points were selected for analysis from the disk center image using feature extraction image processing techniques. The measured FWHM distribution of the bright points in the image is lognormal with a modal value of 220 km (0.30 sec) and an average value of 250 km (0.35 sec). The smallest measured bright point diameter is 120 km (0.17 sec) and the largest is 600 km (O.69 sec). Approximately 60% of the measured bright points are circular (eccentricity approx. 1.0), the average eccentricity is 1.5, and the maximum eccentricity corresponding to filigree in the image is 6.5. The peak contrast of the measured bright points is normally distributed. The contrast distribution variance is much greater than the measurement accuracy, indicating a large spread in intrinsic bright-point contrast. When referenced to an averaged 'quiet-Sun' area in the image, the modal contrast is 29% and the maximum value is 75%; when referenced to an average intergranular lane brightness in the image, the distribution has a modal value of 61% and a maximum of 119%. The bin-averaged contrast of G-band bright points is constant across the entire measured size range. The measured area of the bright points, corrected for pixelation and selection effects, covers about 1.8% of the total image area. Large pores and micropores occupy an additional 2% of the image area, implying a total area fraction of magnetic proxy features in the image of 3.8%. We discuss the implications of this area fraction measurement in the context of previously published measurements which show that typical active region plage has a magnetic filling factor on the order of 10% or greater. The results suggest that in the active region analyzed here, less than 50% of the small-scale magnetic flux tubes are demarcated by visible proxies such as bright points or pores.

Berger, T. E.↗

NASA NTRS1995

New Observations of Subarcsecond Photospheric Bright Points

We have used an interference filter centered at 4305 A within the bandhead of the CH radical (the 'G band') and real-time image selection at the Swedish Vacuum Solar Telescope on La Palma to produce very high contrast images of subarcsecond photospheric bright points at all locations on the solar disk. During the 6 day period of 1993 September 15-20 we observed active region NOAA 7581 from its appearance on the East limb to a near-disk-center position on September 20. A total of 1804 bright points were selected for analysis from the disk center image using feature extraction image processing techniques. The measured Full Width at Half Maximum (FWHM) distribution of the bright points in the image is lognormal with a modal value of 220 km (0 sec .30) and an average value of 250 km (0 sec .35). The smallest measured bright point diameter is 120 km (0 sec .17) and the largest is 600 km (O sec .69). Approximately 60% of the measured bright points are circular (eccentricity approx. 1.0), the average eccentricity is 1.5, and the maximum eccentricity corresponding to filigree in the image is 6.5. The peak contrast of the measured bright points is normally distributed. The contrast distribution variance is much greater than the measurement accuracy, indicating a large spread in intrinsic bright-point contrast. When referenced to an averaged 'quiet-Sun' area in the image, the modal contrast is 29% and the maximum value is 75%; when referenced to an average intergranular lane brightness in the image, the distribution has a modal value of 61% and a maximum of 119%. The bin-averaged contrast of G-band bright points is constant across the entire measured size range. The measured area of the bright points, corrected for pixelation and selection effects, covers about 1.8% of the total image area. Large pores and micropores occupy an additional 2% of the image area, implying a total area fraction of magnetic proxy features in the image of 3.8%. We discuss the implications of this area fraction measurement in the context of previously published measurements which show that typical active region plage has a magnetic filling factor on the order of 10% or greater. The results suggest that in the active region analyzed here, less than 50% of the small-scale magnetic flux tubes are demarcated by visible proxies such as bright points or pores.

Berger, T. E.↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Bombardment History of 4 Vesta as Told by Sample Geochronology

The Dawn mission showed asteroid 4 Vesta to be an extensively cratered body, ancient in age, with craters in a variety of morphologies and preservation states [1-3]. Tying Vesta's relative crater ages to an absolute impact history can be accomplished through investigations of the HED (howardite, eucrite, diogenite) meteorites. Eucrites are crustal basalts and gabbros, diogenites are mostly orthopyroxenites representing lower crust or upper mantle materials, and howardites are mixed breccias containing both lithologies. Eucrite 53Mn-53Cr systematics show that the HED parent body globally differentiated by ~4.56 Ga and fully crystallized soon afterwards [4]. Much later, many eucrites were brecciated and heated by large impacts into the parent body surface. Disturbance ages in eucrites show that multiple large impacts occurred within 1 Gyr after crystallization, showing a history that largely resembles that of the Moon [5-7]. Dawn images also showed that Vesta is covered with a well-developed regolith that is spectrally similar to howardite meteorites [8]. Howardites are polymict regolith breccias made up mostly of clasts of eucrites and diogenites, but which also contain clasts formed by melting of the regolith by relatively large, energetic impact events. Impact-melt clast ages from howardites extend our knowledge of the impact history of Vesta, expanding on eucrite disturbance ages and helping give absolute age context to the observed crater-counts produced using Dawn data. The distribution of 40Ar-39Ar ages of impact-melt clasts in howardites shows that they formed within the time period 3.3-3.8 Ga [9]. These, and other impact-melted HED materials, have distinct age and compositional characteristics that suggest they formed in discrete impact events. In order to create these crystalline impact-melt products on the surface of Vesta, the impacts during this time period must have had velocities much higher than 5 km/s, the main belt average [10]. This is inconsistent with formation by a normal distribution of impact velocities and points instead to a unique period where high-velocity collisions were more frequent than currently observed. Until now, impact-reset ages in the HED meteorites have been be interpreted under the umbrella of the canonical lunar cataclysm where an increase in the absolute number of bombarding objects is responsible for creating larger absolute amounts of impact-affected and impact-melted rocks, statistically increasing their chances of being found on Earth and dated. However, the distribution of age among the howardite impact-melt clasts may not necessarily result from an increased number of impacts, but rather result from impacts of higher velocity. The changeover from a typical main belt velocity profile to this regime of increased velocity population at Vesta occurs contemporaneously with a similar transition at the Moon, indicating that howardite impact-melt clast ages reinforce the notion of a dynamically unusual episode of bombardment in the inner solar system beginning at around 4.0 Ga.

Cohen, B. A.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Detecting change as it occurs

Traditionally climate changes have been detected from long series of observations and long after they have happened. Our 'inverse sequential' procedure, for detecting change as soon as it occurs, describes the existing or most recent data by their frequency distribution. Its parameter(s) are estimated both from the existing set of observations and from the same set augmented by 1,2,....j new observations. Individual-value probability products ('likelihoods') are used to form ratios which yield two probabilities for erroneously accepting the existing parameter(s) as valid for the augmented data set, and vice versa. A genuine parameter change is signaled when these probabilities (or a more stable compound probability) show a progressive decrease. New parameter values can then be estimated from the new observations alone using standard statistical techniques. The inverse sequential procedure will be illustrated for global annual mean temperatures (assumed normally distributed), and for annual numbers of North Atlantic hurricanes (assumed to represent Poisson distributions). The procedure was developed, but not yet tested, for linear or exponential trends, and for chi-squared means or degrees of freedom, a special measure of autocorrelation.

Radok, Uwe↗

DOE OSTI2025

Generative learning of densities on manifolds

A generative modeling framework is proposed that combines diffusion models and manifold learning to efficiently sample data densities on manifolds. The approach utilizes Diffusion Maps to uncover possible low-dimensional underlying (latent) spaces in the high-dimensional data (ambient) space. Two approaches for sampling from the latent data density are described. The first is a score-based diffusion model, which is trained to map a standard normal distribution to the latent data distribution using a neural network. The second one involves solving an Itô stochastic differential equation in the latent space. Additional realizations of the data are generated by lifting the samples back to the ambient space using Double Diffusion Maps , a recently introduced technique typically employed in studying dynamical system reduction; here the focus lies in sampling densities rather than system dynamics. The proposed approaches enable sampling high dimensional data densities restricted to low-dimensional, a priori unknown manifolds. The efficacy of the proposed framework is demonstrated through a benchmark problem and a material with multiscale structure.

Double diffusion maps↗

DOE OSTI2024

Consistent and reproducible computation of the glass transition temperature from molecular dynamics simulations

In many fields, from semiconductors for opto-electronic applications to ionic liquids (ILs) for separations, the glass transition temperature (Tg) of a material is a useful gauge for its potential use in practical settings. As a result, there is a great deal of interest in predicting Tg using molecular simulations. However, the uncertainty and variation in the trend shift method, a common approach in simulations to predict Tg, can be high. This is due to the need for human intervention in defining a fitting range for linear fits of density with temperature assumed for the liquid and glass phases across the simulated cooling. The definition of such fitting ranges then defines the estimate for the Tg as the intersection of linear fits. We eliminate this need for human intervention by leveraging the Shapiro–Wilk normality test and proposing an algorithm to define the fitting ranges and, consequently, Tg. Through this integration, we incorporate into our automated methodology that residuals must be normally distributed around zero for any fit, a requirement that must be met for any regression problem. Consequently, fitting ranges for realizing linear fits for each phase are statistically defined rather than visually inferred, obtaining an estimate for Tg without any human intervention. The method is also capable of finding multiple linear regimes across density vs temperature curves. We compare the predictions of our proposed method across multiple IL and semiconductor molecular dynamics simulation results from the literature and compare other proposed methods for automatically detecting Tg from density–temperature data. We believe that our proposed method would allow for more consistent predictions of Tg. We make this methodology available and open source through GitHub.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2025

Welch Method and Bootstrapping Applied to Subcritical Gamma Noise

We measured the prompt neutron decay constant 𝛼 of the CROCUS zero-power reactor at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne using cross-power spectral density (CPSD) analysis of gamma-gamma correlations from two trans-stilbene organic scintillators positioned near the reactor core. We measured critical and subcritical states, with water levels ranging from 960 mm (critical) to 800 mm (𝜌=−1.4 $ subcritical). Our analysis used the Welch method, dividing signal segments for fast Fourier transform (FFT) frequency analysis and applying bootstrapping uncertainty quantification that uses Welch-defined segments. Results demonstrated a clear increase in the measured 𝛼 as reactor reactivity decreased, distinguishing critical from subcritical conditions. At the 960-mm critical level, 𝛼 was estimated at 155.9 ± 0.7 s −1 , and for the 800-mm subcritical level, 𝛼 increased significantly to 367.3 ± 6.9 s –1 . A linear regression of subcritical states yielded a critical estimate of 154.0 ± 3.1 s –1 , aligning with the static 𝛼 estimate at critical. The bootstrapping method produced normally distributed 𝛼 estimates, confirming data consistency. The gamma CPSD 𝛼 estimates clearly distinguish reactor states and improve monitoring of zero-power reactors. The future deployment of modular and microreactors as potential candidates for noise analysis is demonstrated in CROCUS, particularly zero-power mock-ups of new designs. The improvement of noise analysis in the subcritical domain from this work will support experimental data for reactor deployment and procedure.

CROCUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Safe Reinforcement Learning-Based Transient Stability Control for Islanded Microgrids With Topology Reconfiguration

This paper proposes a safe reinforcement learning (RL)-based transient stability emergency control (TSEC) method for islanded microgrids. RL requires extensive interaction with the environment to learn control strategies, hence, a data-driven approach is used as a substitute for time-consuming time-domain simulation calculations. Deep sigma point processes (DSPP), which is a Gaussian process model, is utilized to predict the normal distribution of transient stability of microgrids and to construct a transient stability chance constraint. Reward-constrained policy optimization (RCPO) can simultaneously achieve objective prediction, policy learning, and constraint cost coefficient update across multiple timescales. RCPO interacts with the DSPP-based microgrid environment through a multi-process parallel manner, greatly increasing the training speed. Case studies on a real islanded microgrid demonstrate that the proposed method can efficiently and quickly obtain the optimal emergency control strategy while adhering to all hard constraints.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Double Bootstrapping

This code performs a simulation experiment that involves (i) drawing random numbers from the normal distribution, (ii) resampling elements from arrays with replacement, and (iii) computing various quantities like mean, standard deviation, etc. Further information is available in section 4 of FERMILAB-FN-1273-ETD [https://inspirehep.net/literature/2925453].

Shyamsundar, Prasanth [Fermi National Accelerator ↗