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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

A plan to revitalize the domestic superconducting radio-frequency industry

Superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities are essential building blocks of modern particle accelerators for scientific research, and they offer unique capabilities that could be transformative for commercial applications. Growth of the domestic SRF industry in North America has faced several challenges over the past decades, as most of the international demand for cavities was supplied by European vendors. This contribution provides a brief review of the domestic industrial vendor space, an outlook of the global demand for SRF cavities and an outline of the challenges leading to this supply chain deficiency. One of the main challenges towards establishing a robust domestic SRF industry has been the large uncertainty in the demand. Meanwhile, research and development activities to raise technical readiness of SRF accelerators for industrial use have continued and several potential markets are emerging that may offer a consistent and growing demand for SRF cavities. Finally, reasons and means of establishing and sustaining competitive domestic suppliers are described.

Accelerator Physics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Miscellaneous Electric Loads: Characterization and Energy Savings Potential

Over time, miscellaneous electric loads (MELs) are expected to increase both in magnitude and share of residential and commercial building energy consumption. This trend is most apparent in North America, but it is also occurring in Japan and Europe. However, the contribution of MELs to building energy use is not currently well understood, both because the products in this category are transforming rapidly and the definition and classification of MELs is ambiguous. This study estimated the national energy consumption of 36 MELs using best-available data and found them to comprise 12% of delivered electricity to the U.S. residential and commercial building sectors. If 26 of these MELs were replaced with the most energy-efficient product models available on the market, their energy consumption could be halved to 6% of delivered electricity. National energy models will better account for building energy consumption by incorporating the MELs data collected and analyzed for this study, leading to improved policy decisions.

Miscellaneous electric loads, Plug loads, Taxonomy↗
DOE OSTI2021

Energy Exascale Earth System Model v2.0

First release of version 2 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. The atmosphere component remains EAM. Major changes since version 1 include: all column-physics parameterizations are computed on a separate grid that has approximately half the number of points of the dynamics grid, a new nonhydrostatic dynamical core (running in hydrostatic mode) with semi-Lagrangian tracer transport, CLUBB updated from v1 to v2, a new convective trigger (dCAPE/ULL) based on the dynamic Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) (dCAPE) and the Unrestricted Launch Level (ULL) concepts is used in ZM. minimum cloud droplet number changed, gravity wave drag energy conservation fixed and new tunings used, dust emission size distribution changed to emit more coarse dust particles The land component is still ELM. Major changes since version 1 include: using SNICAR-AD for radiation in snow to match the sea-ice model and fixing bugs in snow compaction and water state calculation. The ocean component remains MPAS-ocean. Major change since version 1 include: Redi isopycnal mixing has been updated, tested, and tuned in combination with the Gent-McWilliams parameterization, a sign error was fixed in the 3rd-order flux routines, the mesh used in low-resolution coupled cases was modified and the time steps adjusted, new regionally refined meshes were created, one focused on North America and another on the Southern Ocean, including ice shelf cavities. The sea-ice component remains MPAS-seaice. Major changes since version 1 include: A new heat- and freshwater-conserving coupling of frazil ice, turning off of SSH filtering, addition of SNICAR-AD and snow grain aging. The land-ice component remains MPAS-Albany-landIce (MALI) and is a static ice sheet. There is more out-of-the-box support for cryosphere configurations including the new regionally refined configuration around Antarctica with ice shelf cavities. The river model is MOSART. The half-degree river mesh was redone so it no longer treats Black and Caspian seas as ocean. The coupler remains cpl7/MCT. Major changes since version 1 include handling of ice shelf melt fluxes (heat / freshwater exchange with the ocean), and data icebergs. All components allow regional refinement of their meshes and two separate example of refinement, one in and around North America and one around Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, are provided.

E3SM Project, DOE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Urbanization exacerbates continental- to regional-scale warming

Urbanization is usually ignored when estimating past changes in large-scale climate and for future climate projections since cities historically covered a small fraction of the Earth’s surface. Here, by combining global land surface temperature observations with historical estimates of urban area, we demonstrate that the urban contribution to continental- to regional-scale warming has become non-negligible, especially for rapidly urbanizing regions and countries in Asia. Consequently, expected urban expansion over the next century suggests further increased urban influence on large-scale surface climate in the future (approximately 0.16 K for North America and Europe for high-emission scenario in 2100). Based on these results, also seen for air temperature, we argue that, in line with other forms of land use/land cover change, urbanization should be explicitly included in climate change assessments. This requires incorporation of dynamic urban extent and biophysics in current-generation Earth system models to quantify potential urban feedback on the climate system across scales.

Chakraborty, TC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Aerosol responses to precipitation along North American air trajectories arriving at Bermuda

North American pollution outflow is ubiquitous over the western North Atlantic Ocean, especially in winter, making this location a suitable natural laboratory for investigating the impact of precipitation on aerosol particles along air mass trajectories. We take advantage of observational data collected at Bermuda to seasonally assess the sensitivity of aerosol mass concentrations and volume size distributions to accumulated precipitation along trajectories (APT). The mass concentration of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm normalized by the enhancement of carbon monoxide above background (PM 2.5 /ΔCO) at Bermuda was used to estimate the degree of aerosol loss during transport to Bermuda. Results for December–February (DJF) show that most trajectories come from North America and have the highest APTs, resulting in a significant reduction (by 53 %) in PM 2.5 /ΔCO under high-APT conditions (> 13.5 mm) relative to low-APT conditions (< 0.9 mm). Moreover, PM 2.5 /ΔCO was most sensitive to increases in APT up to 5 mm (–0.044 µg m –3 ppbv –1 mm –1 ) and less sensitive to increases in APT over 5 mm. While anthropogenic PM 2.5 constituents (e.g., black carbon, sulfate, organic carbon) decrease with high APT, sea salt, in contrast, was comparable between high- and low-APT conditions owing to enhanced local wind and sea salt emissions in high-APT conditions. The greater sensitivity of the fine-mode volume concentrations (versus coarse mode) to wet scavenging is evident from AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) volume size distribution data. A combination of GEOS-Chem model simulations of the 210 Pb submicron aerosol tracer and its gaseous precursor 222 Rn reveals that (i) surface aerosol particles at Bermuda are most impacted by wet scavenging in winter and spring (due to large-scale precipitation) with a maximum in March, whereas convective scavenging plays a substantial role in summer; and (ii) North American 222 Rn tracer emissions contribute most to surface 210 Pb concentrations at Bermuda in winter (~75 %–80 %), indicating that air masses arriving at Bermuda experience large-scale precipitation scavenging while traveling from North America. A case study flight from the ACTIVATE field campaign on 22 February 2020 reveals a significant reduction in aerosol number and volume concentrations during air mass transport off the US East Coast associated with increased cloud fraction and precipitation. These results highlight the sensitivity of remote marine boundary layer aerosol characteristics to precipitation along trajectories, especially when the air mass source is continental outflow from polluted regions like the US East Coast.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying soil organic matter stock distribution and origin following over a century of maize-based cropping in the former tallgrass prairie region of central USA

Tallgrass prairie conversion to maize-based agriculture in central North America has resulted in substantial loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) in less than two centuries. However, evaluations of how management practices may mitigate SOC losses are generally limited in soil depth and/or duration, missing long-term SOC stock outcomes that manifest over timescales of decades or longer. To address this, we sampled soils in year 145 of the Morrow Plots experiment to (i) evaluate effects of crop rotation and fertility management on SOC stocks and (ii) distinguish prairie- versus maize-derived SOC after continuous maize cropping since 1876 using stable carbon isotope ( 13 C) natural abundance. Soil organic carbon stock by equivalent soil mass (ESM) was + 30.7 Mg C ha −1 (+31.7 %) higher under maize-oat-alfalfa than continuous maize, but similar between maize-soybean and continuous maize. NPK fertilization and manuring did not influence SOC stocks by ESM. Response of SOC stocks at 15 cm depth intervals to NPK fertilization varied by depth and crop rotation, with lower SOC stocks at 30–45 cm under continuous maize and maize-soybean. Maize-derived C ranged 19.5–59.6 % of SOC stock across depths, indicating the majority of SOC was still derived from tallgrass prairie even after 145 years of continuous maize cropping. Our results confirm the potential of diversified crop rotation for minimizing SOC losses relative to tallgrass prairie at the supracentennial scale, and highlight the importance of relic prairie soil organic matter for future crop production in central North America.

crop rotation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Exploring the Use of DSCOVR/EPIC Satellite Observations to Monitor Vegetation Phenology

Vegetation phenology plays a pivotal role in regulating several ecological processes and has profound impacts on global carbon exchange. Large-scale vegetation phenology monitoring mostly relies on Low-Earth-Orbit satellite observations with low temporal resolutions, leaving gaps in data that are important for monitoring seasonal vegetation phenology. High temporal resolution satellite observations have the potential to fill this gap by frequently collecting observations on a global scale, making it easier to study change over time. This study explored the potential of using the Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) onboard the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) satellite, which captures images of the entire sunlit face of the Earth at a temporal resolution of once every 1–2 h, to observe vegetation phenology cycles in North America. We assessed the strengths and shortcomings of EPIC-based phenology information in comparison with the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) onboard Landsat 7, and PhenoCam ground-based observations across six different plant functional types. Our results indicated that EPIC could capture and characterize seasonal changes of vegetation across different plant functional types and is particularly consistent in the estimated growing season length. Our results also provided new insights into the complementary features and benefits of the four datasets, which is valuable for improving our understanding of the complex response of vegetation to global climate variability and other disturbances and the impact of phenology changes on ecosystem productivity and global carbon exchange.

Weber, Maridee A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Interannual consistency of migration phenology is season- and breeding region-specific in North American Golden Eagles

Abstract Interannual consistency (an indicator of the strength of adjustments) in migration phenology of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in North America is most strongly associated with the breeding region, the season, and with late-season temperature on breeding and wintering grounds. Consistency was greatest in boreal spring migration and the breeding regions of eastern Canada. Using multi-year GPS tracks of 83 adults breeding in 3 spatially distant regions (Alaska, northeast Canada, and southeast Canada), we quantified the interannual consistency of migration phenology and wintering latitude within and among individuals tracked across multiple years and the repeatability (r) by breeding regions and seasons. By comparing regions and seasons, we found that consistency was highest (r > 0.85) for boreal spring migration in eastern Canada while Alaska had the lowest value (r < 0.15). Because seasonal consistency of migration phenology was only detected in eastern Canada, we conclude that seasonal features are not a primary constraint. While regional differences in consistency were not related to differences in migratory distances, they could be the result of genetic or habitat differences. We also found that temperatures warmer than the decadal average at the region of departure delayed the start of boreal spring migration by ~10 days and advanced boreal autumn migration by ~20 days. These results suggest that warmer temperatures would reduce residence time on breeding grounds, contrary to expectations and trends found in other studies. Wide variations in migratory strategies across a species distribution can add to the list of challenges for conservation but may give migrants the capacity to acclimate to environmental changes.

Zoology↗
DOE OSTI2021

NEMA-Phase Compliant Traffic Signal Controller Module in SUMO

The controller modules in SUMO use a stage-based control structure. A phase is defined as a stage of all allowed movements at a time instance. However, traffic signal controllers used in North America widely use National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) phase definition. A NEMA phase is defined by a certain flow movement at an intersection. At one time, more than one NEMA phase could happen together as long as they do not conflict with each other. We can visualize the NEMA phases and timings in Ring-and-Barrier structured NEMA diagrams. For one controller, only one phase from a ring can be activated at a time. Phases from different rings could be activated together as long as they are not from the different sides of a barrier. When a controller is operated in fixed-time control mode, we can model the NEMA phase timing as a corresponding stage-based control timing without any issues. When introducing actuation into the signal control, a Ring-and-Barrier structured traffic signal controller can be more flexible than stage-based controller by allowing different possible phase combinations. We made two efforts in modeling Ring-and-Barrier structured controllers in SUMO. One is to translate a NEMA phases timing into SUMO-readable phases and timings as an additional file for SUMO. This translation worked well for fixed-time control. To model actuated control and coordinated actuated control, we augmented the SUMO source code by adding a Ring-and-Barrier structured controller module. This module could implement traffic signal timing from controllers using NEMA phases. We also augmented TraCI to be able to set new NEMA phase timings during simulations. We examined the Ring-and-Barrier structured traffic signal controller module by both visually observing the simulation animations and the simulation records. The developed control module can model the generalized Ring-and-Barrier structured traffic signal timing that is used in North America. SEE: https://github.com/eclipse/sumo/blob/main/src/microsim/traffic_lights/NEMAController.cpp

Wang, Qichao↗
DOE OSTI2024

Climate change will reduce North American inland wetland areas and disrupt their seasonal regimes

Abstract Climate change can alter wetland extent and function, but such impacts are perplexing. Here, changes in wetland characteristics over North America from 25° to 53° North are projected under two climate scenarios using a state-of-the-science Earth system model. At the continental scale, annual wetland area decreases by ~10% (6%-14%) under the high emission scenario, but spatiotemporal changes vary, reaching up to ±50%. As the dominant driver of these changes shifts from precipitation to temperature in the higher emission scenario, wetlands undergo substantial drying during summer season when biotic processes peak. The projected disruptions to wetland seasonality cycles imply further impacts on biodiversity in major wetland habitats of upper Mississippi, Southeast Canada, and the Everglades. Furthermore, wetlands are projected to significantly shrink in cold regions due to the increased infiltration as warmer temperature reduces soil ice. The large dependence of the projections on climate change scenarios underscores the importance of emission mitigation to sustaining wetland ecosystems in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Particle phase-state variability in the North Atlantic free troposphere during summertime is determined by atmospheric transport patterns and sources

Abstract. Free tropospheric aerosol particles have important but poorly constrained climate effects due to transformations of their physicochemical properties during long-range transport. In this study, we investigate the chemical composition and provide an overview of the phase states of individual particles that have undergone long-range transport over the North Atlantic Ocean in June and July 2014, 2015, and 2017 to the Observatory of Mount Pico (OMP) in the Azores. The OMP is an ideal site for studying long-range-transported free tropospheric particles because local emissions have a negligible influence and contributions from the boundary layer are rare. We used the FLEXible PARTicle Lagrangian particle dispersion model (FLEXPART) to determine the origins and transport trajectories of sampled air masses and found that most of them originated from North America and recirculated over the North Atlantic Ocean. The FLEXPART analysis showed that the sampled air masses were highly aged (average plume age >10 d). Size-resolved chemical compositions of individual particles were probed using computer-controlled scanning electron microscopy with an energy-dispersive X-ray spectrometer (CCSEM-EDX) and scanning transmission X-ray microscopy with near-edge X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (STXM-NEXAFS). CCSEM-EDX results showed that the most abundant particle types were carbonaceous (∼ 29.9 % to 82.0 %), sea salt (∼ 0.3 % to 31.6 %), and sea salt with sulfate (∼ 2.4 % to 31.5 %). We used a tilted stage interfaced within an environmental scanning electron microscope (ESEM) to determine the phase states of individual submicron particles. We found that most particles (∼ 47 % to 99 %) were in the liquid state at the time of collection due to inorganic inclusions. Moreover, we also observed substantial fractions of solid and semisolid particles (∼ 0 % to 30 % and ∼ 1 % to 42 %, respectively) during different transport patterns and events, reflecting the particles' phase-state variability for different atmospheric transport events and sources. Combining phase state measurements with FLEXPART CO tracer analysis, we found that wildfire-influenced plumes can result in particles with a wide range of viscosities after long-range transport in the free troposphere. We also used temperature and RH values extracted from the Global Forecast System (GFS) along the FLEXPART-simulated path to predict the phase state of the particles during transport and found that neglecting internal mixing with inorganics would lead to an overestimation of the viscosity of free tropospheric particles. Our findings warrant future investigation aiming at the quantitative assessment of the influence of internal mixing on the phase states of the individual particles. This study also provides insights into the chemical composition and phase state of free tropospheric particles, which can help models to reduce uncertainties about the effects of ambient aerosol particles on climate.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nine Canyon Long-Duration Energy Storage: A Feasibility Study

The Nine Canyon Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES) Feasibility Study explores the technical and economic viability of deploying advanced energy storage technologies at Energy Northwest's (EN) Nine Canyon (9C) Wind Project site in Benton County, Washington. Supported by the Washington State Department of Commerce and the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Electricity under its LDES Voucher Program, the study represents a collaborative effort between EN, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), and ARES North America. At the core of this effort is the development of a generalized techno-economic modeling framework and evaluation tool designed to assess the value proposition of LDES projects across a variety of contexts. The modeling tool is technology-agnostic and accommodates user-defined parameters such as rated power, energy duration, round-trip efficiency, capital and operational costs, and dispatch constraints. It also integrates economic inputs, including market prices, energy revenue structures, and financing parameters to evaluate performance through key metrics. The tool provides utilities with a transparent, adaptable platform to support decision-making, investment prioritization, and portfolio planning for various storage technologies. To guide scenario design and interpretation, the study first surveyed the LDES technology landscape, including lithium-ion batteries, flow batteries, non-hydro gravity storage, and thermo-mechanical systems, comparing cost trajectories, technical performance, safety and hazards, materials sourcing and recyclability, and spatial/siting considerations. This literature-grounded review highlights technology trade-offs and reinforces the need to align technology choice with site characteristics, use cases, and project objectives. A companion chapter examines ownership structures (EN ownership, third-party ownership, shared models) and offtake options (energy marketing, capacity/energy PPAs, time-of-use PPAs, block-delivery PPAs, and tolling), where PPAs (power purchase agreements) represent contractual arrangements for buying and selling electricity. The chapter also highlights implications for risk allocation, capital access, operational control, and revenue certainty. The study also evaluates supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) and transmission interconnection pathways, options include upgrading the existing SCADA or deploying a dedicated LDES controller, with attention to protection schemes, data telemetry, cybersecurity, and regulatory coordination with BPA. In addition, an ARES-specific geotechnical and hydrology assessment presented in the appendix screens multiple corridors for slope stability, bearing capacity, cut-and-fill magnitude, and stormwater behavior.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Two Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns are Associated with Short-Duration Dry Spells in the Northeastern United States

Large-scale meteorological pattern (LSMP)–based analysis is used in a novel way to understand meteorological conditions before and during short-duration dry spells over the northeastern United States. These LSMPs are useful to assess models and select better-performing models for future projections. Dry-spell events are identified from histograms of consecutive dry days below a daily precipitation threshold. Events lasting 12 days or longer, which correspond to ~10% of dry-spell events, are examined. The 500-hPa stream-function anomaly fields for the first 12 days of each event are time averaged, and k -means clustering is applied to isolate the dry-spell-related LSMPs. The first cluster has a strong low pressure anomaly over the Atlantic Ocean, southeast of the region, and is more common in winter and spring. The second cluster has strong high pressure over east-central North America and is most common during autumn. Over the region, both clusters have negative specific humidity anomalies, negative integrated vapor transport from the north, and subsidence associated with a midlatitude jet stream dipole structure that reinforces upper-level convergence. Subsidence is supported by cold-air advection in the first cluster and the location on the east side of the lower-level high pressure in the second cluster. Extratropical cyclone storm tracks are generally shifted southward of the region during the dry spells. Individual events lie on a continuum between two distinct clusters. These clusters have similar local, but different remote, properties. Although dry spells occur with greater frequency during drought months, most dry spells occur during nondrought months. Significance Statement: This study examines the large-scale weather patterns and meteorological conditions associated with dry-spell events lasting at least 2 weeks while affecting the northeastern United States. A statistical approach groups events together on the basis of similar atmospheric features. We find two distinct sets of patterns that we call large-scale meteorological patterns. These patterns reduce moisture, foster localized sinking, and shift the storm track southward along the Atlantic seaboard, all of which reduce precipitation. Besides greater understanding, knowing the meteorological patterns during short-term dryness in the region provides an important tool to assess how well atmospheric models reproduce these specific patterns. More dry spells occur in non-drought months than in drought months, which means that dry spells can occur without preexisting drought conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Urban NO x emissions around the world declined faster than anticipated between 2005 and 2019

Emission inventory development for air pollutants, by compiling records from individual emission sources, takes many years and involves extensive multi-national effort. A complementary method to estimate air pollution emissions is in the use of satellite remote sensing. In this study, NO 2 observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument are combined with re-analysis meteorology to estimate urban nitrogen oxide (NO X ) emissions for 80 global cities between 2005 and 2019. The global average downward trend in satellite-derived urban NO X emissions was 3.1%–4.0% yr -1 between 2009 and 2018 while inventories show a 0%–2.2% yr -1 drop over the same timeframe. This difference is primarily driven by discrepancies between satellite-derived urban NO X emissions and inventories in Africa, China, India, Latin America, and the Middle East. In North America, Europe, Korea, Japan, and Australasia, NO X emissions dropped similarly as reported in the inventories. In Europe, Korea, and Japan only, the temporal trends match the inventories well, but the satellite estimate is consistently larger over time. While many of the discrepancies between satellite-based and inventory emissions estimates represent real differences, some of the discrepancies might be related to the assumptions made to compare the satellite-based estimates with inventory estimates, such as the spatial disaggregation of emissions inventories. Overall, our work identifies that the three largest uncertainties in the satellite estimate are the tropospheric column measurements, wind speed and direction, and spatial definition of each city.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS): An Open-Access Model for the North American Electricity System

The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model is NREL’s flagship capacity expansion planning tool for the electric power sector in North America. Originally developed in 2001, ReEDS has been used primarily by NREL researchers to conduct high-profile analysis of the potential evolution of the electricity system. In September 2019, the core model is being released for public use. In this presentation, we provide an overview of the model architecture, key model features, data sources, lessons learned, and sample model results for the North American electric power system.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Regional climate change projections from NA-CORDEX and their relation to climate sensitivity

Abstract The climate sensitivity of global climate models (GCMs) strongly influences projected climate change due to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. Reasonably, the climate sensitivity of a GCM may be expected to affect dynamically downscaled projections. However, there has been little examination of the effect of the climate sensitivity of GCMs on regional climate model (RCM) ensembles. Therefore, we present projections of temperature and precipitation from the ensemble of projections produced as a part of the North American branch of the international Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) in the context of their relationship to the climate sensitivity of their parent GCMs. NA-CORDEX simulations were produced at 50-km and 25-km resolutions with multiple RCMs which downscaled multiple GCMs that spanned nearly the full range of climate sensitivity available in the CMIP5 archive. We show that climate sensitivity is a very important source of spread in the NA-CORDEX ensemble, particularly for temperature. Temperature projections correlate with driving GCM climate sensitivity annually and seasonally across North America not only at a continental scale but also at a local-to-regional scale. Importantly, the spread in temperature projections would be reduced if only low, mid, or high climate sensitivity simulations were considered, or if only the ensemble mean were considered. Precipitation projections correlate with climate sensitivity, but only at a continental scale during the cold season, due to the increasing influence of other processes at finer scales. Additionally, it is shown that the RCMs do alter the projection space sampled by their driving GCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

North American energy system responses to natural gas price shocks

As of 2020, North American natural gas extraction and use in the electricity sector have both reached all-time highs. The combination of North America's increased reliance on natural gas with a potential disruption to the natural gas market has several energy security implications. Additionally, policymakers interested in economic resiliency will find this study's results useful for informing the implications of the energy sectors' long-term planning and investment decisions. This paper evaluates how both the electricity and natural gas sectors could respond to hypothetical gas price shocks under different system configurations. We impose unforeseen natural gas price shocks under reference and alternative configurations resulting from a renewable generation mandate or variations to renewable capacity costs. Results from several different models are presented for the electricity and natural gas sectors separately for Canada, Mexico, and the United States. Generally, the US becomes more (less) reliant on electricity imports from Canada given a high (low) gas price shock but increases (decreases) exports to Mexico. The renewable mandate is shown to buffer electricity price increases under high price shocks but price reductions under the low price shocks are dampened given less flexibility to take advantage of the low-priced natural gas. The United States is demonstrated to reduce natural gas production and net exports with high natural gas price shocks given a reduction in demand.

03 NATURAL GAS↗