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At least 163 records · Page 9

Human-induced changes to the global ocean water masses and their time of emergence

The World Ocean is rapidly changing, with global and regional modification of temperature and salinity, resulting in widespread and irreversible impacts. While the most pronounced observed temperature and salinity changes are located in the upper ocean, changes in water masses at depth have been identified and will probably strengthen in the future. In this study, using 11 climate models, we define when anthropogenic temperature and salinity changes are expected to emerge from natural variability in the ocean interior along density surfaces. The models predict that in 2020, 20–55% of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian basins have an emergent anthropogenic signal; reaching 40–65% in 2050 and 55–80% in 2080. The well-ventilated Southern Ocean water masses emerge very rapidly, as early as the 1980–1990s, while the Northern Hemisphere water masses emerge in the 2010–2030s. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining and augmenting an ocean observing system capable of detecting and monitoring persistent anthropogenic changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sources, seasonal cycling, and fate of plutonium in a seasonally stratified and radiologically contaminated pond

Unlike short-term laboratory experiments, studies at sites historically contaminated with radionuclides can provide insight into contaminant migration behavior at environmentally-relevant decadal timescales. One such site is Pond B, a seasonally stratified reservoir within Savannah River Site (SC, USA) has low levels (μBq L –1 ) of plutonium in the water column. Here, we evaluate the origin of plutonium using high-precision isotope measurements, investigate the impact of water column geochemistry on plutonium cycling during different stratification periods, and re-evaluate long-term mass balance of plutonium in the pond. New isotopic data confirm that reactor-derived plutonium overwhelms input from Northern Hemisphere fallout at this site. Two suggested mechanisms for observed plutonium cycling in the water column include: (1) reductive dissolution of sediment-derived Fe(III)-(oxyhydr)oxides during seasonal stratification and (2) plutonium stabilization complexed strongly to Fe(III)-particulate organic matter (POM) complexes. While plutonium may be mobilized to a limited extent by stratification and reductive dissolution, peak plutonium concentrations are in shallow waters and associated with Fe(III)-POM at the inception of stratification. This suggests that plutonium release from sediments during stratification is not the dominant mechanism driving plutonium cycling in the pond. Importantly, our analysis suggests that the majority is retained in shallow sediments and may become increasingly recalcitrant.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The underappreciated role of anthropogenic sources in atmospheric soluble iron flux to the Southern Ocean

The atmospheric deposition of soluble (bioaccessible) iron enhances ocean primary productivity and subsequent atmospheric CO 2 sequestration in iron-limited ocean basins, especially the Southern Ocean. While anthropogenic sources have been recently suggested to be important in some northern hemisphere oceans, the role in the Southern Ocean remains ambiguous. By comparing multiple model simulations with the new aircraft observations for anthropogenic iron, we show that anthropogenic soluble iron deposition flux to the Southern Ocean could be underestimated by more than a factor of ten in previous modeling estimates. Our improved estimate for the anthropogenic iron budget enhances its contribution on the soluble iron deposition in the Southern Ocean from about 10% to 60%, implying a dominant role of anthropogenic sources. We predict that anthropogenic soluble iron deposition in the Southern Ocean is reduced substantially (30-90%) by the year 2100, and plays a major role in the future evolution of atmospheric soluble iron inputs to the Southern Ocean.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Climate responses in China to domestic and foreign aerosol changes due to clean air actions during 2013–2019

In recent years, to improve air quality, significant efforts have been made to reduce regional aerosols including China, Europe and North America, which have potential impacts on climate. In this study, fast and slow climate responses in China to changes in domestic and foreign anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursors from 2013 to 2019 are investigated using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). Aerosol emissions changes, especially reductions in China, North America and Europe, during 2013–2019 resulted in surface air temperature increases across the Northern Hemisphere. Global aerosol changes induce a regional warming of 0.2 °C in China, equally contributed by domestic and foreign emissions changes. China’s domestic emission reductions lead to a regional average temperature rise of 0.1°C, primarily driven by rapid atmospheric adjustments over eastern China. Foreign aerosol changes, particularly reductions in North America and Europe, also contributed to a 0.1°C warming in China through slow oceanic processes. This warming in China induced by foreign aerosol changes is due to a teleconnection between the aerosol-induced anomalous regional warming in Eastern U.S.-North Atlantic Ocean-Europe and the downstream East Asian climate through anomalous wave trains propagation. The comparable influence of domestic and foreign aerosol changes on climate in China underscores the importance of international collaboration in climate mitigation endeavors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wildfire aerosol deposition likely amplified a summertime Arctic phytoplankton bloom

Summertime wildfire activity is increasing in boreal forest and tundra ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere. However, the impact of long range transport and deposition of wildfire aerosols on biogeochemical cycles in the Arctic Ocean is unknown. Here, we use satellite-based ocean color data, atmospheric modeling and back trajectory analysis to investigate the transport and fate of aerosols emitted from Siberian wildfires in summer 2014 and their potential impact on phytoplankton dynamics in the Arctic Ocean. We detect large phytoplankton blooms near the North Pole (up to 82°N in the eastern Eurasian Basin). Our analysis indicates that these blooms were induced by the northward plume transport and deposition of nutrient-bearing wildfire aerosols. We estimate that these highly stratified surface waters received large amounts of wildfire-derived nitrogen, which alleviated nutrient stress in the phytoplankton community and triggered an unusually large bloom event. Our findings suggest that changes in wildfire activity may strongly influence summertime productivity in the Arctic Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Detecting tropospheric composition and climate responses to US air pollution controls in the context of internally-arising variability

Since the 1970s, air pollutant emissions controls in the United States (US) have lowered concentrations of ozone (O 3 ) and aerosols, which have opposing radiative effects on surface temperature. Using a pair of initial-condition ensembles generated by a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, we simulate the “world avoided” by US air pollution controls. In this counterfactual world, we find tropospheric column O 3 increases, robust to natural internal variability, extending across the Northern Hemisphere. Robust aerosol increases, dominated by sulfate, remain localized near the US. Wintertime Northwest Atlantic cloud droplet number concentration is particularly sensitive to US aerosol. While an ensemble mean US surface cooling signal (−0.4 °C) implies that aerosol-driven cooling prevails over any O 3 -induced warming, we find that large regional internal variability will confound its detection in any single transient realization. Larger signal-to-noise ratios for composition versus climate variables underscore the greater detectability of emissions-driven changes in tropospheric composition compared to their associated climate impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pervasive alterations to snow-dominated ecosystem functions under climate change

Climate change projections consistently demonstrate that warming temperatures and dwindling seasonal snowpack will elicit cascading effects on ecosystem function and water resource availability. Despite this consensus, little is known about potential changes in the variability of ecohydrological conditions, which is also required to inform climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Considering potential changes in ecohydrological variability is critical to evaluating the emergence of trends, assessing the likelihood of extreme events such as floods and droughts, and identifying when tipping points may be reached that fundamentally alter ecohydrological function. Using a single-model Large Ensemble with sophisticated terrestrial ecosystem representation, we characterize projected changes in the mean state and variability of ecohydrological processes in historically snow-dominated regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Widespread snowpack reductions, earlier snowmelt timing, longer growing seasons, drier soils, and increased fire risk are projected for this century under a high-emissions scenario. In addition to these changes in the mean state, increased variability in winter snowmelt will increase growing-season water deficits and increase the stochasticity of runoff. Thus, with warming, declining snowpack loses its dependable buffering capacity so that runoff quantity and timing more closely reflect the episodic characteristics of precipitation. This results in a declining predictability of annual runoff from maximum snow water equivalent, which has critical implications for ecosystem stress and water resource management. So our results suggest that there is a strong likelihood of pervasive alterations to ecohydrological function that may be expected with climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The large scale polarization explorer (LSPE) for CMB measurements: performance forecast

The measurement of the polarization of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) radiation is one of the current frontiers in cosmology. In particular, the detection of the divergence-free component of the polarization field, the B-mode component, reveals the presence of gravitational waves in the early Universe. The detection of such component is at the moment the most promising technique to probe the inflationary theory describing the very early evolution of the Universe. The measurement of the polarization of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) radiation is one of the current frontiers in cosmology. In particular, the detection of the primordial divergence-free component of the polarization field, the B-mode, could reveal the presence of gravitational waves in the early Universe. The detection of such a component is at the moment the most promising technique to probe the inflationary theory describing the very early evolution of the Universe. We present the updated performance forecast of the Large Scale Polarization Explorer (LSPE), a program dedicated to the measurement of the CMB polarization. LSPE is composed of two instruments: LSPE-Strip, a radiometer-based telescope on the ground in Tenerife-Teide observatory, and LSPE-SWIPE (Short-Wavelength Instrument for the Polarization Explorer) a bolometer-based instrument designed to fly on a winter arctic stratospheric long-duration balloon. The program is among the few dedicated to observation of the Northern Hemisphere, while most of the international effort is focused into ground-based observation in the Southern Hemisphere. Measurements are currently scheduled in Winter 2022/23 for LSPE-SWIPE, with a flight duration up to 15 days, and in Summer 2022 with two years observations for LSPE-Strip. In this work, we describe the main features of the two instruments, identifying the most critical aspects of the design, in terms of impact on the performance forecast. We estimate the expected sensitivity of each instrument and propagate their combined observing power to the sensitivity to cosmological parameters, including the effect of scanning strategy, component separation, residual foregrounds and partial sky coverage. We also set requirements on the control of the most critical systematic effects and describe techniques to mitigate their impact. LSPE will reach a sensitivity in tensor-to-scalar ratio of σr < 0.01, set an upper limit r < 0.015 at 95% confidence level, and improve constraints on other cosmological parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Diel, seasonal, and inter-annual variation in carbon dioxide effluxes from lakes and reservoirs

Abstract Accounting for temporal changes in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) effluxes from freshwaters remains a challenge for global and regional carbon budgets. Here, we synthesize 171 site-months of flux measurements of CO 2 based on the eddy covariance method from 13 lakes and reservoirs in the Northern Hemisphere, and quantify dynamics at multiple temporal scales. We found pronounced sub-annual variability in CO 2 flux at all sites. By accounting for diel variation, only 11% of site-months were net daily sinks of CO 2 . Annual CO 2 emissions had an average of 25% (range 3%–58%) interannual variation. Similar to studies on streams, nighttime emissions regularly exceeded daytime emissions. Biophysical regulations of CO 2 flux variability were delineated through mutual information analysis. Sample analysis of CO 2 fluxes indicate the importance of continuous measurements. Better characterization of short- and long-term variability is necessary to understand and improve detection of temporal changes of CO 2 fluxes in response to natural and anthropogenic drivers. Our results indicate that existing global lake carbon budgets relying primarily on daytime measurements yield underestimates of net emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evidence for multi-decadal fuel buildup in a large California wildfire from smoke radiocarbon measurements

In recent decades, there has been a significant increase in annual area burned in California's Sierra Nevada mountains. This rise in fire activity has prompted the need to understand how historical forest management practices affect fuel composition and emissions. Here we examined the total carbon (TC) concentration and radiocarbon abundance (Δ 14 C) of particulate matter (PM) emitted by the KNP Complex Fire, which occurred during California's 2021 wildfire season and affected several groves of giant sequoia trees in the southern Sierra Nevada. During a 26 h sampling period, we measured concentrations of fine airborne PM (PM 2.5 ), as well as dry air mole fractions of carbon monoxide (CO) and methane (CH 4 ), using a ground-based mobile laboratory. We also collected filter samples of PM 2.5 for analysis of TC concentration and Δ 14 C. High correlation among PM 2.5 , CO, and CH 4 time series confirmed that our PM 2.5 measurements captured variability in wildfire emissions. Using a Keeling plot approach, we determined that the mean Δ 14 C of PM 2.5 was 111.6 ± 7.7‰ (n = 12), which was considerably enriched relative to atmospheric carbon dioxide in the northern hemisphere in 2021 (-3.2 ± 1.4‰). Combining these Δ 14 C data with a steady-state one-box ecosystem model, we estimated that the mean age of fuels combusted in the KNP Complex Fire was 40 years, with a range of 29–57 years. These results provide evidence for emissions originating from woody biomass, larger-diameter fine fuels, and coarse woody debris that have accumulated over multiple decades. This is consistent with independent field observations that indicate high fire intensity contributed to widespread giant sequoia mortality. With the expanded use of prescribed fires planned over the next decade in California to mitigate wildfire impacts, our measurement approach has the potential to provide regionally-integrated estimates of the effectiveness of fuel treatment programs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A multi-model assessment of global freshwater temperature and thermoelectric power supply under climate change

Water temperature is a key abiotic factor influencing aquatic ecosystem health and the services provided to both nature and humans. Global water temperature models offer possibilities to improve our understanding of water temperature regimes, which is increasingly important against the backdrop of climate change. Yet, existing studies have predominantly relied on a single model, which can lead to an incomplete representation of uncertainty and potential biases, in addition to limited insight into the range of possible future conditions, which ultimately reduces the robustness of climate impact assessments. Here, we provide a comprehensive assessment of surface freshwater temperature changes from various river and lake models for both past conditions and under future scenarios of climate change. Global models consistently simulate that surface water temperatures are currently 0.5 °C–0.8 °C higher than at the turn of the century (i.e. 1981–2000), and that warming will extend and intensify with future global change throughout the 21st century. While the strength of warming is highly sensitive to the different water temperature models, emissions scenarios and global climate models, our multi-model ensemble shows a global average annual water temperature rise of between +1.3 °C and +4.1 °C by the end of the century. To illustrate a potential societal impact of our results, we evaluate how future changes in discharge and water temperature may affect existing thermoelectric power plants, estimating average annual reductions of 1.5%–6% in global usable capacity by the end of the century. However, with river water temperatures projected to exhibit more pronounced seasonal patterns in the future—especially under the more extreme climate change scenarios and during summer months in the Northern Hemisphere—intra-annual reductions in usable capacity can be much more severe. Given the challenges associated with (large-scale) adaptation to control water temperature regimes, strong climate change mitigation is crucial for minimising water temperature rises and its associated negative impacts on humankind and ecosystems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Metagenome-assembled genome distribution and key functionality highlight importance of aerobic metabolism in Svalbard permafrost

Permafrost underlies a large portion of the land in the Northern Hemisphere. It is proposed to be an extreme habitat and home for cold-adaptive microbial communities. Upon thaw permafrost is predicted to exacerbate increasing global temperature trend, where awakening microbes decompose millennia old carbon stocks. Yet our knowledge on composition, functional potential and variance of permafrost microbiome remains limited. In this study, we conducted a deep comparative metagenomic analysis through a 2 m permafrost core from Svalbard, Norway to determine key permafrost microbiome in this climate sensitive island ecosystem. To do so, we developed comparative metagenomics methods on metagenomic-assembled genomes (MAG). We found that community composition in Svalbard soil horizons shifted markedly with depth: the dominant phylum switched from Acidobacteria and Proteobacteria in top soils (active layer) to Actinobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Chloroflexi and Proteobacteria in permafrost layers. Key metabolic potential propagated through permafrost depths revealed aerobic respiration and soil organic matter decomposition as key metabolic traits. We also found that Svalbard MAGs were enriched in genes involved in regulation of ammonium, sulfur and phosphate. Here, we provide a new perspective on how permafrost microbiome is shaped to acquire resources in competitive and limited resource conditions of deep Svalbard soils.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Metagenomic investigation of African dust events in the Caribbean

ABSTRACT African dust from the Sahara and Sahel regions of Northern Africa is blown intercontinental distances and is the highest portion of atmospheric dust generated each year. During the Northern Hemisphere summer months (boreal summer), these dust events travel into the Caribbean and southern United States. While viability assays, microscopy and bacterial amplicon analyses have shown that dust-associated microbes may be diverse, the specific microbial taxa that are transported intercontinental distances with these dust events remain poorly characterized. To provide new insights into these issues, five metagenomes of Saharan dust events occurring in the Caribbean, collected in the summer months of 2002 and 2008, were analyzed. The data revealed that similar microbial composition existed between three out of the five of the distinct dust events and that fungi were a prominent feature of the metagenomes compared to other environmental samples. These results have implications for better understanding of microbial transport through the atmosphere and may implicate that the dust-associated microbial load transiting the Atlantic with Saharan dust is similar from year to year.

Waters, Samantha Marie↗

Measurement of the anisotropy power spectrum of the radio synchrotron background

We present the first targeted measurement of the power spectrum of anisotropies of the radio synchrotron background, at 140 MHz, where it is the overwhelmingly dominant photon background. This measurement is important for understanding the background level of radio sky brightness, which is dominated by steep-spectrum synchrotron radiation at frequencies below ν ~ 0.5 GHz and has been measured to be significantly higher than that produced by known classes of extragalactic sources and most models of Galactic halo emission. We determine the anisotropy power spectrum on scales ranging from 2° to 0.2 arcmin with Low-Frequency Array observations of two 18-deg 2 fields – one centred on the Northern hemisphere’s coldest patch of radio sky where the Galactic contribution is smallest and the other offset from that location by 15°. We find that the anisotropy power is higher than that attributable to the distribution of point sources above 100 μJy in flux. Furthermore, this level of radio anisotropy power indicates that if it results from point sources, those sources are likely at low fluxes and incredibly numerous, and likely clustered in a specific manner.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Sub-m s−1 upper limits from a deep HARPS-N radial-velocity search for planets orbiting HD 166620 and HD 144579

ABSTRACT Minimizing the impact of stellar variability in radial velocity (RV) measurements is a critical challenge in achieving the 10 cm s−1 precision needed to hunt for Earth twins. Since 2012, a dedicated programme has been underway with HARPS-N, to conduct a blind RV rocky planets search (RPS) around bright stars in the Northern hemisphere. Here we describe the results of a comprehensive search for planetary systems in two RPS targets, HD 166620 and HD 144579. Using wavelength-domain line-profile decorrelation vectors to mitigate the stellar activity and performing a deep search for planetary reflex motions using a trans-dimensional nested sampler, we found no significant planetary signals in the data sets of either of the stars. We validated the results via data-splitting and injection recovery tests. Additionally, we obtained the 95th percentile detection limits on the HARPS-N RVs. We found that the likelihood of finding a low-mass planet increases noticeably across a wide period range when the inherent stellar variability is corrected for using scalpelsU-vectors. We are able to detect planet signals with Msin i ≤ 1 M⊕ for orbital periods shorter than 10 d. We demonstrate that with our decorrelation technique, we are able to detect signals as low as 54 cm s−1, which brings us closer to the calibration limit of 50 cm s−1 demonstrated by HARPS-N. Therefore, we show that we can push down towards the RV precision required to find Earth analogues using high-precision radial velocity data with novel data-analysis techniques.

Anna John, A. (ORCID:0000000217156939)↗

Return of the templates: Revisiting the Galactic Center excess with multimessenger observations

The Galactic center excess (GCE) remains one of the most intriguing discoveries from the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) observations. We revisit the characteristics of the GCE by first producing a new set of high-resolution galactic diffuse gamma-ray emission templates. This diffuse emission, which accounts for the bulk of the observed gamma rays, is ultimately due to cosmic-ray interactions with the interstellar medium. Using recent high-precision cosmic-ray observations, in addition to the continuing Fermi-LAT observations and observations from lower energy photons, we constrain the properties of the galactic diffuse emission. We describe a large set of diffuse gamma-ray emission templates which account for a very wide range of initial assumptions on the physical conditions in the inner galaxy. The broad properties of the GCE that we find in this work are qualitatively unchanged despite the introduction of this new set of templates, though its quantitative features appear mildly different than those obtained in previous analyses. In particular, we find a high-energy tail at higher significance than previously reported. This tail is very prominent in the northern hemisphere, and less so in the southern hemisphere. This strongly affects one prominent interpretation of the excess: known millisecond pulsars are incapable of producing this high-energy emission, even in the relatively softer southern hemisphere, and are therefore disfavored as the sole explanation of the GCE. The annihilation of dark matter particles of mass 40 - 7 + 10 GeV (95% CL) to b quarks with a cross-section of ⟨ σ A v ⟩ = 1. 4 - 0.3 + 0.6 × 10 - 26 cm 3 s − 1 provides a good fit to the excess especially in the relatively cleaner southern sky. Dark matter of the same mass range annihilating to b quarks or heavier dark matter particles annihilating to heavier Standard Model bosons can combine with millisecond pulsars to provide a good fit to the southern hemisphere emission as well, as can a broken power-law spectrum which would be related to recent cosmic-ray burst activity. As part of this paper, we make publicly available all of our templates and the data covariance matrix we have generated to account for systematic uncertainties.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Astrometry in two-photon interferometry using an Earth rotation fringe scan

Optical interferometers may not require a phase-stable optical link between the stations if instead sources of quantum-mechanically entangled pairs could be provided to them, enabling long baselines. We developed a new variation of this idea, proposing that photons from two different astronomical sources could be interfered at two decoupled stations. Interference products can then be calculated in post-processing or requiring only a slow, classical connection between stations. In this work, we investigated practical feasibility of this approach. We developed a Bayesian analysis method for the earth rotation fringe scanning technique and showed that in the limit of high signal-to-noise ratio it reproduced the results from a simple Fisher matrix analysis. Here we identify candidate stair pairs in the northern hemisphere, where this technique could be applied. With two telescopes with an effective collecting area of ~ 2 m 2 , we could detect fringing and measure the astrometric separation of the sources at ~100 μas precision in a few hours of observations, in agreement with previous estimates.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Fourfold alkyl wrapping of a copper(II) porphyrin thwarts macrocycle π–π stacking in a compact supramolecular package

Porphyrins are valuable constituents in optoelectronic, catalytic, and other applications, yet control of intermolecular π–π stacking is invariably essential to attain the desired properties. Superstructures built onto the porphyrin, often via meso -aryl groups, can afford facial encumbrance that suppresses π–π stacking, although some molecular designs have provided insufficient facial coverage and many have entailed cumbersome syntheses. In this study, a copper(II) porphyrin bearing four meso substituents, namely, {10,20-bis[2,6-bis(octyloxy)phenyl]-5,15-dibromoporphinato}copper(II), [Cu(C 64 H 82 Br 2 N 4 O 4 )], was prepared by metalation of the corresponding free-base porphyrin and was characterized by single-crystal X-ray diffraction. The crystal structure reveals a dihedral angle of 111.1 (2)° for the plane of the meso -aryl group relative to the plane of the porphyrin, with both aryl groups tilted in the same direction. Each of the four octyloxy groups exhibits a gauche conformation for the –OCH 2 CH 2 – unit but is extended with four or five anti (–CH 2 CH 2 –/H) conformations thereafter, causing each octyl group to span the dimension of the macrocycle. In a global frame of reference where the two Br atoms define the north/south poles and the two aryl groups are at antipodes on the equator, two octyl groups of one aryl unit project over the northern hemisphere (covering pyrroles A and B ), whereas those of the other aryl unit project over the southern hemisphere (covering pyrroles C and D ). Together, the four octyl groups ensheath the two faces of the porphyrin in a self-wrapped assembly. The closest approach of the Cu atom to an octyl methylene C atom (position 6) is 3.5817 (18) Å, the mean separations of neighboring porphyrin planes are 8.059 (4) and 4.693 (8) Å along the a and c axes, respectively, and the center-to-center distances between the Cu atoms of neighboring porphyrins are 10.2725 (4), 12.2540 (6), and 12.7472 (6) Å along the a , b , and c axes, respectively. The Hirshfeld surface analysis and two-dimensional (2D) fingerprint plots provide information concerning contact interactions in the supramolecular assembly of the solid crystal.

Chemistry↗