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At least 163 records · Page 9

Simulating regional workforce impacts of decarbonizing integrated steelmaking

Global efforts to mitigate climate change are increasing pressure on heavy manufacturing industries to decarbonize production. The iron and steel industry is responsible for 7% of CO 2 emissions globally (2% in the United States) and is often a major employer in the regions where iron and steel is produced. Understanding the future prospects for workers in regions with high CO 2 emitting industries—including impacts of phasing out or evolving such industries—will be critical for informing regional economic and clean energy strategies. We simulate the impact of an “in-place” transition that replaces today’s integrated production with direct reduced iron (DRI) used in electric arc furnaces (EAFs), using Southwest Pennsylvania as an application of our generalizable approach. Our results suggest that the integrated steelmaking workforce today has the skills, knowledge, and abilities (SKAs) to fill over 95% of all jobs required by DRI/EAF facilities, but the number of jobs is only 25% of those at integrated plants. We also find that some occupational groups have greater general transferability into the broader job market, while other groups, such as production workers, are ill-equipped today based on current SKAs to transition out of the iron and steel industry. Our methodology further suggests factors that limit transitions: Around 85% of occupations are more limited by missing skills, while 15% are more limited by insufficient wages. These results may help to improve the design of social policy and the targeting of retraining programs, while the simulation approach can be readily adapted for other regions and industries.

decarbonization↗

Equipment List Comparing Balance of Plant Containing a Heat Pump against a Reference Electricity Generating Plant

Approximately two-thirds of U.S. energy consumption in the industrial and transportation sectors relies on fossil fuels. These sectors require high-quality heat, i.e., thermal energy at very high temperatures, for molecular transformation processes. The Integrated Energy Systems (IES) program aims to assess the economic potential of utilizing nuclear-grade heat from Advanced Reactors (ARs) to meet the high-quality heat demands. By having industrial processes (IPs) supplied with nuclear-generated heat, manufacturers could benefit from more stable and potentially lower energy costs, reducing reliance on volatile fossil fuel markets. The main outcome of the FY24 research was the thermodynamic assessment and gap analysis of steam generation for IP applications. The study completed in June 2024 demonstrated that the required steam temperatures could be achieved by integrating a heat pump into an AR power plant. After identifying the thermal demands of target IPs, multiple balance of plant configurations for the Xe-100 reactor by X-energy, incorporating a heat pump, were analyzed. Their technical feasibilities were assessed, including the design of suitable axial compressors for these applications. Comparative performance analysis showed that thermal efficiency alone is insufficient to evaluate system suitability. To address this, a new indicator (heat factor) was introduced in the report released in September 2024 to quantify the low-quality thermal power needed to produce one unit of high-quality heat for the IP. Results showed that integrating heat pumps into Rankine cycles enables higher steam temperatures, though at the expense of increased thermal energy input. This report builds upon and completes the foundational work previously undertaken. It focuses on the design of two Balance of Plant (BOP) configurations, both based on Rankine energy conversion cycles: “Case 1”, which involves electricity generation only, and “Case 2”, which combines electricity and high-temperature heat generation for industrial use. For each configuration, a comprehensive equipment list was developed, detailing all major components such as turbines, compressors, heat exchangers, pumps, and control systems. These lists will serve as the basis for future comparative cost analyses, with the goal of assessing the number and type of components required to integrate a heat pump into the Rankine cycle and to establish a heat transport system capable of delivering thermal energy from the nuclear plant to an industrial facility. Using the constitutive equations presented in the June 2024 milestone, the operating conditions of all BOP components for both “Case 1” and “Case 2” were evaluated. These parameters—such as temperature, pressure, mass flow rate, and steam quality—served as the basis for calculating the associated thermal and mechanical power flows. The net power required from the heat pump to raise the steam temperature to the target level was also determined. The thermodynamic performance of the configuration was then assessed using the heat factor metric. The key outcome of this analysis is a comparative table that presents the equipment that was used in the “Case 1” and “Case 2” configurations. This study offers a preliminary comparison of the two designs, providing insight into the impact of integrating a heat pump in terms of component requirements and thermal efficiency. This equipment list, together with the evaluated operating conditions, also serves as a foundation for the economic analyses scheduled for the current fiscal year.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Toward lower-diameter large-scale HPC and data center networks with co-packaged optics

We investigate the advantages of using co-packaged optics for building low-diameter, large-scale high-performance computing (HPC) and data center networks. The increased escape bandwidth offered by co-packaged optics can enable high-radix switch implementations of more than 150 switch ports, which can be combined with data rates of up to 400 Gb/s per port. From the network architecture perspective, the key benefits of using co-packaged optics in future fat-tree networks include (a) the ability to implement large-scale topologies of > <#comment/> 11 , 000 end points by eliminating the need for a third switching layer and (b) the ability to provide up to 4 × <#comment/> higher bisection bandwidth compared to existing solutions, reducing at the same time the number of required switch application-specific integrated circuits by > <#comment/> 80 % <#comment/> . From the network operation perspective, both reduced energy consumption and lower packet delays can be achieved since fewer hops are required; i.e., packets need to traverse fewer serializer/deserializer lanes and fewer switch buffers, which reduces the probability of contending with other packets and improves the tolerance of network congestion. The performance of the proposed architecture is evaluated via discrete-event simulations for a wide range of representative HPC synthetic-traffic cases that include both hotspot and non-hotspot scenarios. The simulation results suggest that co-packaged optics form a promising solution to keep up with bandwidth scaling in future networks, while the reduced number of switching layers can lead to significant mean packet delay improvements that start from 30% and reach up to 74% for high-load conditions.

Maniotis, Pavlos (ORCID:0000000244905253)↗

hIPPYlib-MUQ: A Bayesian Inference Software Framework for Integration of Data with Complex Predictive Models under Uncertainty

Bayesian inference provides a systematic framework for integration of data with mathematical models to quantify the uncertainty in the solution of the inverse problem. However, the solution of Bayesian inverse problems governed by complex forward models described by partial differential equations (PDEs) remains prohibitive with black-box Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We present hIPPYlib-MUQ, an extensible and scalable software framework that contains implementations of state-of-the art algorithms aimed to overcome the challenges of high-dimensional, PDE-constrained Bayesian inverse problems. These algorithms accelerate MCMC sampling by exploiting the geometry and intrinsic low-dimensionality of parameter space via derivative information and low rank approximation. The software integrates two complementary open-source software packages, hIPPYlib and MUQ. hIPPYlib solves PDE-constrained inverse problems using automatically-generated adjoint-based derivatives, but it lacks full Bayesian capabilities. MUQ provides a spectrum of powerful Bayesian inversion models and algorithms, but expects forward models to come equipped with gradients and Hessians to permit large-scale solution. By combining these two complementary libraries, we created a robust, scalable, and efficient software framework that realizes the benefits of each and allows us to tackle complex large-scale Bayesian inverse problems across a broad spectrum of scientific and engineering disciplines. To illustrate the capabilities of hIPPYlib-MUQ, we present a comparison of a number of MCMC methods available in the integrated software on several high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems. These include problems characterized by both linear and nonlinear PDEs, various noise models, and different parameter dimensions. The results demonstrate that large (~ 50×) speedups over conventional black box and gradient-based MCMC algorithms can be obtained by exploiting Hessian information (from the log-posterior), underscoring the power of the integrated hIPPYlib-MUQ framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

MAESTROeX

MAESTROeX is a massively parallel, finite-volume C++/F90 solver for low Mach number astrophysical flows. The code utilizes a low Mach number equation set allowing for more efficient, long-time integration of highly subsonic flows compared to compressible approaches. The recommended range of applicability is for flows where the Mach number does not exceed~0.1.

Harpole, Alice↗

Automated Generation of Integrated Digital and Spiking Neuromorphic Machine Learning Accelerators

The growing numbers of application areas for artificial intelligence (AI) methods have led to an explosion of domain-specific accelerators that could support every new machine learning (ML) algorithm advancement, clearly highlighting the need for a capability to quickly and automatically transition from algorithm definition to hardware implementation and explore design space along a variety of SWaP (size, weight and Power). The software defined architectures (SODA) synthesizer implements a compiler-based modular infrastructure for the end-to-end generation of machine learning accelerators from high-level frameworks to hardware description language. At the same time, neuromorphic computing, by mimicking how the brain operates, promises to perform artificial intelligence tasks at efficiencies orders of magnitude higher than the current conventional tensor-processing based accelerators, as demonstrated by a variety of specialized designs leveraging Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs). Nevertheless, the mapping of an artificial neural network (ANN) to solutions supporting SNNs is still a non-trivial and very device-specific task, and completely lack the possibility to design hybrid systems that integrate conventional and spiking neural models. In this paper we discuss the support for such an integrated generation leveraging the SODA Synthesizer framework and its modular structure. In particular, we present a new MLIR dialect (part of the SODA frontend) that allows expressing spiking neural network features (e.g., available resources, spiking sequences, analog signal reading, etc.) and illustrate how it enables mapping to Spiking Neurons and deployment to the related specialized hardware (which, in the digital domain, could be generated through the other existing layers of the SODA Synthesizer). We then discuss the opportunities for even deeper integration afforded by the hardware compilation infrastructure, providing a path towards the generation of complex heterogeneous artificial intelligence systems.

Curzel, Serena↗

Chip-scale frequency combs for data communications in computing systems

Recent developments in chip-based frequency-comb technology demonstrate that comb devices can be implemented in applications where photonic integration and power efficiency are required. The large number of equally spaced comb lines that are generated make combs ideal for use in communication systems, where each line can serve as an optical carrier to allow for massively parallel wavelength-division multiplexing (WDM) transmission. In this review, we summarize the developments in integrated frequency-comb technology for use as a WDM source for communication systems in data centers and high-performance computing systems. We highlight the following three approaches for chip-scale comb generation: semiconductor modelocked lasers, electro-optic combs, and Kerr frequency combs.

Okawachi, Yoshitomo (ORCID:0000000196390549)↗

Measurements of W + W − production cross-sections in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV with the ATLAS detector

Measurements of W + W − → e ± νμ ∓ ν production cross-sections are presented, providing a test of the predictions of perturbative quantum chromodynamics and the electroweak theory. The measurements are based on data from pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider in 2015–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb −1 . The number of events due to top-quark pair production, the largest background, is reduced by rejecting events containing jets with b-hadron decays. An improved methodology for estimating the remaining top-quark background enables a precise measurement of W + W − cross-sections with no additional requirements on jets. The fiducial W + W − cross-section is determined in a maximum-likelihood fit with an uncertainty of 3.1%. The measurement is extrapolated to the full phase space, resulting in a total W + W − cross-section of 127 ± 4 pb. Differential cross-sections are measured as a function of twelve observables that comprehensively describe the kinematics of W + W − events. The measurements are compared with state-of-the-art theory calculations and excellent agreement with predictions is observed. A charge asymmetry in the lepton rapidity is observed as a function of the dilepton invariant mass, in agreement with the Standard Model expectation. A CP-odd observable is measured to be consistent with no CP violation. Limits on Standard Model effective field theory Wilson coefficients in the Warsaw basis are obtained from the differential cross-sections.

Accelerator Physics↗

Ab Initio Direct Dynamics

The reactivity and dynamics of molecular systems can be explored computationally by classical trajectory calculations. The traditional approach involves fitting a functional form of a potential energy surface (PES) to the energies from a large number of electronic structure calculations and then integrating numerous trajectories on this fitted PES to model the molecular dynamics. The ever-decreasing cost of computing and continuing advances in computational chemistry software have made it possible to use electronic structure calculations directly in molecular dynamics simulations without first having to construct a fitted PES. In this “on-the-fly” approach, every time the energy and its derivatives are needed for the integration of the equations of motion, they are obtained directly from quantum chemical calculations. This approach started to become practical in the mid-1990s as a result of increased availability of inexpensive computer resources and improved computational chemistry software. The application of direct dynamics calculations has grown rapidly over the last 25 years and would require a lengthy review article. The present Account is limited to some of our contributions to methods development and various applications. To improve the efficiency of direct dynamics calculations, we developed a Hessian-based predictor-corrector algorithm for integrating classical trajectories. Hessian updating made this even more efficient. Furthermore, this approach was also used to improve algorithms for following the steepest descent reaction paths. For larger molecular systems, we developed an extended Lagrangian approach in which the electronic structure is propagated along with the molecular structure. Strong field chemistry is a rapidly growing area, and to improve the accuracy of molecular dynamics in intense laser fields, we included the time-varying electric field in a novel predictor-corrector trajectory integration algorithm. Since intense laser fields can excite and ionize molecules, we extended our studies to include electron dynamics. Specifically, we developed code for time-dependent configuration interaction electron dynamics to simulate strong field ionization by intense laser pulses. Our initial application of ab initio direct dynamics in 1994 was to CH 2 O → H 2 + CO; the calculated vibrational distributions in the products were in very good agreement with experiment. In the intervening years, we have used direct dynamics to explore energy partitioning in various dissociation reactions, unimolecular dissociations yielding three fragments, reactions with branching after the transition state, nonstatistical dynamics of chemically activated molecules, dynamics of molecular fragmentation by intense infrared laser pulses, selective activation of specific dissociation channels by aligned intense infrared laser fields, angular dependence of strong field ionization, and simulation of sequential double ionization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Factors Governing Metal Dependence of an Emergent Superfamily of Bimetallic Oxygenases

Metalloenzyme superfamilies are typically defined by their protein scaffolds and active sites. Owing to the high tunability of protein structures, members of a single superfamily can catalyze diverse reactions with the same metallocofactor. Some superfamilies, such as amidohydrolase-related dinuclear oxygenases (AROs), display further versatility by utilizing multiple metallocofactors. We have shown that certain AROs catalyze monooxygenation reactions with diiron, dimanganese, and/or mixed manganese−iron cofactors, but the molecular factors governing the selection of a particular cofactor remain unknown, and the extent of this superfamily in biology is unclear. Here, we report bioinformatic analyses that expand the ARO superfamily to approximately 17,000 unique UniProt sequences, far exceeding the number of previously characterized enzymes. Through the integration of structural, spectroscopic, and thermodynamic analyses of representative proteins with a bioinformatic pipeline that identifies key secondary- and tertiary-sphere residues, we can predict in silico the metal preference for the majority of reported ARO sequences. These annotations were validated via the characterization of multiple new AROs, including ones implicated in key oxidative steps of natural product biosyntheses. This study establishes the key structure−function relationships governing metal preferences in AROs and highlights their vastly underappreciated role in myriad biological processes.

Liu, Chang [University of California, Berkeley, CA↗

Synchronization in electric power networks with inherent heterogeneity up to 100% inverter-based renewable generation

The synchronized operation of power generators is the foundation of electric power network stability and a key to the prevention of undesired power outages and blackouts. Here, we derive the conditions that guarantee synchronization in power networks with inherent generator heterogeneity when subjected to small perturbations, and perform a parametric sensitivity analysis to understand synchronization with varied types of generators. As inverter-based resources, which are the primary interfacing technology for many renewable sources of energy, have supplanted synchronous generators in ever growing numbers, the center of attention on associated integration challenges have resided primarily on the role of declining system inertia. Our results instead highlight the critical role of generator damping in achieving a stable state of synchronization. Additionally, we report the feasibility of operating interconnected electric grids with up to 100% power contribution from inverter-based renewable generation technologies. Our study has important implications as it sets the basis for the development of advanced control architectures and grid optimization methods that ensure synchronization and further pave the path towards the decarbonization of the electric power sector.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Analog pile-up circuit technique using a single capacitor for the readout of Skipper-CCD detectors

With Skipper-CCD detectors it is possible to take multiple samples of the charge packet collected on each pixel. After averaging the samples, the noise can be extremely reduced allowing the exact counting of electrons per pixel. In this work we present an analog circuit that, with a minimum number of components, applies a double slope integration (DSI) and at the same time averages the multiple samples, producing at its output the pixel value with sub-electron noise. For this purpose, we introduce the technique of using the DSI integrator capacitor to add the skipper samples. An experimental verification using discrete components is presented, together with an analysis of its noise sources and limitations. After averaging 400 samples it was possible to reach a readout noise of 0.18 e- rms/pix, comparable to other available readout systems. Due to its simplicity and significant reduction of the sampling requirements, this circuit technique is of particular interest in particle experiments and cameras with a high density of Skipper-CCDs.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Measurement of event shapes in minimum-bias events from proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13

A measurement of event-shape variables is presented, using a data sample produced in a special run with approximately one inelastic proton-proton collision per bunch crossing. The data were collected with the CMS detector at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 64 μ⁢b −1 . A number of observables related to the overall distribution of charged particles in the collisions are corrected for detector effects and compared with simulations. Inclusive event-shape distributions, as well as differential distributions of event shapes as functions of charged-particle multiplicity, are studied. None of the models investigated are able to satisfactorily describe the data. Moreover, there are significant features common amongst all generator setups studied, particularly showing data being more isotropic than any of the simulations. Multidimensional unfolded distributions are provided, along with their correlations.

Chekhovsky, V. [Yerevan Physics Institute]↗

Utah FORGE 8-3637: Integrated Diagnostics for Interpreting Doublet Heat Sweep Efficiency - 2024 Annual Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Integrated Diagnostics for Interpreting Doublet Heat Sweep Efficiency by Texas Tech University, presented by Smith Leggett. This video slide presentation discusses the ID squared technical objectives to develop and integrate diagnostic tools to determine (1) the number of fractures, (2) the uniformity of flow distribution, (3) heat exchange areas, and (4) heat efficiency. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on August 15, 2024.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Wireless Instrumented RB Experiment Preliminary Design and Analysis

The ability to deploy new nuclear fuels for current or future reactor concepts requires carefully designed experiments to generate data to support fuel qualification. Ideally these experiments would include state of-the-art sensing to maximize the amount of in situ data that can be collected during operation. Furthermore, advanced reactor systems can take advantage of integrated in-core sensing technologies to maximize fuel utilization, reduce unnecessary conservativism in design margins, and improve operator’s understanding of limiting peaking factors. Before any novel sensing technologies can be readily adopted for nuclear applications, they must first demonstrate acceptable performance in test reactors. This report summarizes the preliminary design and analysis of the most highly instrumented irradiation experiment ever performed in the removable beryllium (RB) positions of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The Wireless Instrumented RB Experiment 2021 (WIRE-21) will test a wide range of sensors including wireless sensors being developed by Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC) that could provide in situ measurements of peak fuel temperatures and fuel rod pressurization due to fission gas release. The ability to wirelessly transmit a signal through the fuel rod’s cladding is critical to improving fuel monitoring capabilities without requiring signal penetrations through the cladding pressure boundary, which would significantly impact fuel fabrication, handling, and operation. Other sensors that will be tested in WIRE-21 include an array of thermocouples, self-powered neutron detectors (SPNDs), and spatially distributed fiber-optic temperature sensors. More generally, WIRE-21 will establish a flexible irradiation vehicle design to allow accelerated, economical testing of advanced sensor technologies while leveraging the extremely high neutron flux that is available in HFIR. This report summarizes the mechanical design for WIRE-21, the experimental test matrix, initial neutronic and thermal design analyses, and the active monitoring and control system enhancements necessary to support testing of advanced sensor technologies. The containment for WIRE-21 is similar to previous RB irradiation vehicles but includes a few modifications, most notably the use of integrated compression seals to pass a larger number of sensor leads through the experiment’s pressure boundary. In addition to the sensor leads, inert gas lines are passed into the experiment to enable active temperature control and the ability to pneumatically actuate a bellows-driven pressure sensor. WIRE-21 is targeting temperatures (300–350°C) and neutron fluence levels (~10 22 n/cm 2 ) relevant to light water reactors (LWRs), but the flexible design of the experiment vehicle allows much higher operating temperatures (>1,100°C). Neutronic calculations determine the neutron flux conditions as well as the nuclear heating within the experiments. These results are used as inputs to detailed thermal finite element calculations, which are required to evaluate the complex, three-dimensional heat transfer that occurs within WEC’s wireless sensor enclosures. Initial results show that the temperatures of the sensors’ enclosures and the metal bellows can be operated near the temperature range of LWR coolants and cladding while simultaneously increasing the temperature of a surrogate fuel material to values in the range of 800–1200°C to simulate centerline fuel temperatures during LWR operation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

WIRE-21 Sensor Irradiation Experiment Ready for HFIR Insertion

The ability to deploy new nuclear fuels for current or future reactor concepts requires a wealth of data regarding fuel performance during normal operation, anticipated operational occurrences, and design-basis accidents. Most of these data have historically been collected during experiments in materials test reactors, ideally with online instrumentation to collect as much data as possible. However, advanced instrumentation could also allow for in situ monitoring of fuel operating conditions during commercial reactor operation to maximize fuel utilization, reduce unnecessary conservativism in design margins, and improve operator understanding of limiting peaking factors. The latter approach would complicate fuel handling, particularly during refueling, unless the instrumentation could be placed inside the fuel rods and transmitted wirelessly to a receiver located outside the fuel’s primary pressure boundary. To this end, Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC) developed wireless sensors based on inductive coupling that can transmit information regarding fuel centerline temperatures and rod internal pressures wirelessly from within a fuel rod to a nearby instrument thimble. After testing these sensors in lower-power university research reactors, the next step is to perform high neutron fluence testing to characterize the performance of these wireless sensors under conditions that are more representative of the intended application—in this case, light-water reactors (LWRs). The removable Be (RB) positions of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) provide the neutron flux, experiment volume, and access to instrument leads required to achieve these sensor testing goals. This report summarizes the design, analysis, and assembly of the Wireless Instrumented RB Experiment 2021 (WIRE-21). This is the most highly instrumented irradiation experiment ever performed in HFIR. The experiment will use seven different sensing techniques to measure temperature, pressure, neutron flux, and neutron fluence during reactor operation. In addition to WEC’s wireless temperature and pressure sensors, WIRE-21 includes an array of thermocouples, self-powered neutron detectors, spatially distributed fiber optic temperature sensors, passive SiC temperature monitors, and flux wires. The design of WIRE-21 and the cabling that was installed in HFIR also provide the infrastructure to enable accelerated, economical testing of advanced sensor technologies while leveraging the extremely high neutron flux that is available in HFIR. The containment for WIRE-21 is similar to previous RB irradiation vehicles but includes a few modifications, most notably the use of integrated compression seals to pass a larger number of sensor leads through the experiment’s pressure boundary. In addition to the sensor leads, inert gas lines are passed into the experiment to enable active temperature control and the ability to pneumatically actuate a bellows-driven pressure sensor. WIRE-21 is targeting component temperatures (300–350°C) and neutron fluence levels (~10 22 n/cm 2 ) that would be expected in the plenum region of LWR fuels, except for the active sensing region of the wireless temperature sensor, which is targeting LWR fuel centerline temperatures (~800–1,100°C). WIRE-21 was successfully assembled, passed all nondestructive examination, and was delivered to HFIR for insertion during upcoming cycle 498 (April 2022).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Summary of Thermodynamic Data Integration (M4SF-23LL010301052)

This progress report (Level 4 Milestone Number M4SF-23LL010301052) summarizes research conducted at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) within the Argillite Activity Number M4SF-23LL010301052. SUPCRTNE is being developed as the primary engine for thermodynamic database development in support of geologic disposal of high-level nuclear waste. As used here, “SUPCRT” refers to both a computer program and its supporting database. Additional letters or numbers refer to specific variants (SUPCRT92, Johnson et al., 1992; SUPCRTBL, Zimmer et al., 2016; and SUPCRTNE). A SUPCRT database contains the data required to calculate the thermodynamic properties of solid, gas, and aqueous species over a wide range of temperature and pressure. Normally SUPCRT is used to create a higher-level data base that directly supports modeling and simulation codes such as EQ3/6, GWB, PHREEQC, and PFLOTRAN.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Uncertainty Quantification in CO2 Trapping Mechanisms: A Case Study of PUNQ-S3 Reservoir Model Using Representative Geological Realizations and Unsupervised Machine Learning

Evaluating uncertainty in CO2 injection projections often requires numerous high-resolution geological realizations (GRs) which, although effective, are computationally demanding. This study proposes the use of representative geological realizations (RGRs) as an efficient approach to capture the uncertainty range of the full set while reducing computational costs. A predetermined number of RGRs is selected using an integrated unsupervised machine learning (UML) framework, which includes Euclidean distance measurement, multidimensional scaling (MDS), and a deterministic K-means (DK-means) clustering algorithm. In the context of the intricate 3D aquifer CO2 storage model, PUNQ-S3, these algorithms are utilized. The UML methodology selects five RGRs from a pool of 25 possibilities (20% of the total), taking into account the reservoir quality index (RQI) as a static parameter of the reservoir. To determine the credibility of these RGRs, their simulation results are scrutinized through the application of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test, which analyzes the distribution of the output. In this assessment, 40 CO2 injection wells cover the entire reservoir alongside the full set. The end-point simulation results indicate that the CO2 structural, residual, and solubility trapping within the RGRs and full set follow the same distribution. Simulating five RGRs alongside the full set of 25 GRs over 200 years, involving 10 years of CO2 injection, reveals consistently similar trapping distribution patterns, with an average value of Dmax of 0.21 remaining lower than Dcritical (0.66). Using this methodology, computational expenses related to scenario testing and development planning for CO2 storage reservoirs in the presence of geological uncertainties can be substantially reduced.

Mahjour, Seyed Kourosh↗