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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2021

The Gaia-ESO Survey: Oxygen Abundance in the Galactic Thin and Thick Disks

We analyze the oxygen abundances of a stellar sample representative of the two major Galactic populations: the thin and thick disks. The aim is to investigate the differences between members of the Galactic disks and contribute to the understanding of the origin of oxygen chemical enrichment in the Galaxy. The analysis is based on the [O i] = 6300.30 Å oxygen line in high-resolution spectra (R ∼ 52,500) obtained from the Gaia-ESO public spectroscopic Survey (GES). By comparing the observed spectra with a theoretical data set computed in LTE with the SPECTRUM synthesis and ATLAS12 codes, we derive the oxygen abundances of 516 FGK dwarfs for which we have previously measured carbon abundances. Based on kinematic, chemical, and dynamical considerations, we identify 20 thin and 365 thick disk members. We study the potential trends of both subsamples in terms of their chemistry ([O/H], [O/Fe], [O/Mg], and [C/O] versus [Fe/H] and [Mg/H]), age, and position in the Galaxy. The main results are that (a) [O/H] and [O/Fe] ratios versus [Fe/H] show systematic differences between thin and thick disk stars with an enhanced O abundance of thick disk stars with respect to thin disk members and a monotonic decrement of [O/Fe] with increasing metallicity, even at metal-rich regime; (b) there is a smooth correlation of [O/Mg] with age in both populations, suggesting that this abundance ratio can be a good proxy of stellar ages within the Milky Way; and (c) thin disk members with [Fe/H] ≃ 0 display a [C/O] ratio smaller than the solar value, suggesting a possibly outward migration of the Sun from lower Galactocentric radii.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Numerical investigation of laser-driven shock interaction with a deformable particle

A laser-driven shock propagating through an isolated particle embedded in a plastic (CH) target was studied using the radiation-hydrodynamic code FLASH. Preliminary simulations using IONMIX equations of state (EOS) showed significant differences in the shock Hugoniot of aluminum compared to experimental data in the low-pressure regime [O(10) GPa], resulting in higher streamwise compression and deformation of an aluminum particle. Hence, a simple modification to the ideal gas EOS was developed and employed to describe the target materials and examine the particle dynamics. The evolution of the pressure field demonstrated a complex wave interaction, resulting in a highly unsteady particle drag which featured two drag minima due to shock focusing at the rear end of the particle and rarefaction stretching due to laser shut-off. Although ~30% lateral expansion and ~25% streamwise compression were observed, the aluminum particle maintained considerable integrity without significant distortion. Additional simulations examined the particle response for a range of particle densities, sizes, and acoustic impedances. The data revealed that lighter particles such as aluminum gained significant momentum, reaching up to ~96% of the shocked CH's speed, compared to ~29% for the heavier tungsten particles. Despite the differences seen in the early stage of shock interaction, particles with varying acoustic impedances ultimately reached the same peak velocity. This identified particle-to-host density ratio is an important factor in determining the inviscid terminal velocity of the particle. In addition, the modified EOS model presented in this study could be used to approximate solid materials in hydrocodes that lack material strength models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

ELG spectroscopic systematics analysis of the DESI Data Release 1

Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) uses more than 2.4 million Emission Line Galaxies (ELGs) for 3D large-scale structure (LSS) analyses in its Data Release 1 (DR1). Such large statistics enable thorough research on systematic uncertainties. In this study, we focus on spectroscopic systematics of ELGs. The redshift success rate (f goodz ) is the relative fraction of secure redshifts among all measurements. It depends on observing conditions, thus introduces non-cosmological variations to the LSS. We, therefore, develop the redshift failure weight (w zfail ) and a per-fibre correction (η zfail ) to mitigate these dependences. They have minor influences on the galaxy clustering. For ELGs with a secure redshift, there are two subtypes of systematics: 1) catastrophics (large) that only occur in a few samples; 2) redshift uncertainty (small) that exists for all samples. The catastrophics represent 0.26% of the total DR1 ELGs, composed of the confusion between [O ii] and sky residuals, double objects, total catastrophics and others. We simulate the realistic 0.26% catastrophics of DR1 ELGs, the hypothetical 1% catastrophics, and the truncation of the contaminated 1.31 < z < 1.33 in the A BACUS S UMMIT ELG mocks. Their P ℓ show non-negligible bias from the uncontaminated mocks. But their influences on the redshift space distortions (RSD) parameters are smaller than 0.2σ. The redshift uncertainty of DR1 ELGs is 8.5km s -1 with a Lorentzian profile. The code for implementing the catastrophics and redshift uncertainty on mocks can be found in https://github.com/Jiaxi-Yu/modelling_spectro_sys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spatial calibration and synthetic diagnostic of a multi-energy hard x-ray camera at WEST tokamak

WEST (tungsten environment in steady-state tokamak) is starting operation for the first time with a water-cooled full tungsten divertor, enabling long pulse operation. Heating is provided by radiofrequency systems, including lower hybrid current drive (LHCD). In this context, a compact multi-energy hard x-ray camera has been installed for energy and space-resolved measurements of the electron temperature, the fast electron tail density produced by LHCD and runaway electrons, and the beam–target emission of tungsten at the target due to fast electron losses interacting with the divertor plates. The diagnostic is a pinhole camera based on a 2D pixel array detector (Pilatus 3 CdTe CMOS Hybrid-Pixel detector produced by DECTRIS). The novelty of this diagnostic technique is the detector’s capability of adjusting the threshold energy at pixel level. This innovation provides great flexibility in the energy configuration, allowing simultaneous space and energy-resolved x-ray measurements. This contribution details two important steps in the preparation of the diagnostic operation. First, the in-vessel spatial calibration that was carried out with a radioactive source. Second, the synthetic diagnostic is obtained by the suite of codes ALOHA/C3PO/LUKE/R5-X2, which simulates LH wave propagation and absorption, as well as the fast electron bremsstrahlung production.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Novel intrinsic helical cores and MHD dynamo flux pumping evidence in DIII-D

Evidence of a MHD dynamo brought about by intrinsic helical core structures in negative triangularity (NT) and ITER baseline scenario (IBS) plasmas demonstrates paths to operating tokamaks without seeds for deleterious global MHD modes. A stationary sawtooth- and edge localized mode-free state maintains high performance for long durations in a strong NT shape in the DIII-D tokamak. Disparity between minimum safety factor values predicted by magnetic flux diffusion theory and derived from experiment suggests anomalous flux diffusion by an MHD dynamo, driven by flows associated with quasi-interchange modes. Stability calculations with the GATO code find NT and IBS experimental equilibria unstable to quasi-interchange modes, in agreement with observed saturated activity. IBS discharges with similar magnetic winding structure occupy robust helical core states following a transition from sawtooth instabilities. These states agree with prior modeling of helical core bifurcation thresholds with the VMEC equilibrium code.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

ASK: Adversarial Soft k-Nearest Neighbor Attack and Defense

K-Nearest Neighbor (kNN)-based deep learning methods have been applied to many applications due to their simplicity and geometric interpretability. However, the robustness of kNN-based deep classification models has not been thoroughly explored and kNN attack strategies are underdeveloped. In this paper, we first propose an Adversarial Soft kNN (ASK) loss for developing more effective kNN-based deep neural network attack strategies and designing better defense methods against them. Our ASK loss provides a differentiable surrogate of the expected kNN classification error. It is also interpretable as it preserves the mutual information between the perturbed input and the in-class-reference data. We use the ASK loss to design a novel attack method called the ASK-Attack (ASK-Atk), which shows superior attack efficiency and accuracy degradation relative to previous kNN attacks on hidden layers. We then derive an ASK-Defense (ASK-Def) method that optimizes the worst-case ASK training loss. Experiments on CIFAR-10 (ImageNet) show that (i) ASK-Atk achieves ≥13% (≥ 13% ) improvement in attack success rate over previous kNN attacks, and (ii) ASK-Def outperforms the conventional adversarial training method by ≥ 6.9% (≥ 3.5% ) in terms of robustness improvement. Relevant codes are available at https://github.com/wangren09/ASK .

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

TINES - Time Integration, Newton and Eigen Solver v. 1.0

SAND2021-1505 O. TINES is an open source software providing math infrastructure for solving many stiff time ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and/or differential algebraic equations (DAEs) using a batch hierarchical parallelism. The code is written using a parallel programming model (i.e., Kokkos) to future-proof the next generation parallel computing platforms such as GPU accelerators. This code is developed to support Exascale Catalytic Chemistry (ECC) Project. The code provides fundamental math helpers that can aid other research projects. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Kim, Kyungjoo↗
DOE OSTI2026

Efficient Routing of Quantum LDPC Codes on Programmable 2D Toric Architectures

Quantum low-density parity-check codes are promising candidates towards scalable fault-tolerant quantum computation. Among these, bivariate bicycle (BB) codes offer superior encoding rates and large code distance compared to surface codes. However, their requirement on long-range stabilizer measurements poses significant challenges for implementation on realistic hardware with limited connectivity, such as superconducting circuit platforms. In this work, we introduce a novel hardware-software co-design that leverages a programmable communication network architecture to address these limitations. Our approach utilizes a 2D toric network of oscillators as a flexible communication fabric linking qubits at each site. Such architecture significantly reduces the number of long-range couplers required from O ( n ) to O (√ n ). Dual-rail qubits, along with native gates including Swap-Wait-Swap gates and beamsplitter SWAPs, ensure that long-range two-qubit gates can be executed with high fidelity and low latency. To further enhance performance, our qubit layout and routing algorithm utilize symmetries of the codes and enable maximum parallelism for long-range two-qubit gates, maintaining a low syndrome extraction cycle duration and scalability over the code length. We perform circuit-level simulation with realistic noise modeling based on experimental hardware parameters, observing an logical error rate per logical qubit per cycle of 3.06% for [[18,4,4]] BB code, 2.6× less than the existing experimental result. These findings provide a practical roadmap and identify key technological advancements needed to achieve low-overhead fault-tolerant quantum computing at scale.

Liu, Kun [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States↗
DOE OSTI2021

Anomaly detection in the Zwicky Transient Facility DR3

We present results from applying the SNAD anomaly detection pipeline to the third public data release of the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF DR3). The pipeline is composed of three stages: feature extraction, search of outliers with machine learning algorithms, and anomaly identification with followup by human experts. Our analysis concentrates in three ZTF fields, comprising more than 2.25 million objects. A set of four automatic learning algorithms was used to identify 277 outliers, which were subsequently scrutinized by an expert. From these, 188 (68 per cent) were found to be bogus light curves – including effects from the image subtraction pipeline as well as overlapping between a star and a known asteroid, 66 (24 per cent) were previously reported sources whereas 23 (8 per cent) correspond to non-catalogued objects, with the two latter cases of potential scientific interest (e.g. one spectroscopically confirmed RS Canum Venaticorum star, four supernovae candidates, one red dwarf flare). Moreover, using results from the expert analysis, we were able to identify a simple bi-dimensional relation that can be used to aid filtering potentially bogus light curves in future studies. We provide a complete list of objects with potential scientific application so they can be further scrutinised by the community. These results confirm the importance of combining automatic machine learning algorithms with domain knowledge in the construction of recommendation systems for astronomy. Our code is publicly available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gamma Spectrometry Code Rodeo for Uranium Enrichment—FY 2021 Report

In FY22, the participating Department of Energy (DOE) laboratories continued the work on the project “Gamma Spectrometry Code Rodeo for Uranium Enrichment”. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) continued their efforts to acquire spectra using uranium sources. A collimator (with side and back shields) was custom designed and constructed at ORNL. Spectra were acquired at ORNL using the uranium enrichment standards supplied by New Brunswick Laboratory (NBL) and the collimated M400 detector. Spectra were also acquired using steel absorbers of different thickness placed between the source and the collimated M400 detector. The plan was to ship the collimator to LLNL so that spectra could be acquired using the LLNL detector in collimated geometries. This activity was suspended since problems were noticed with the performance of the LLNL M400 detector. Also, it was brought to light to the project team that some of the aspects of the M400 detector had been updated by the vendor H3D in response to requests by the IAEA. In February 2021, the ORNL and LLNL M400 detectors were returned to the H3D factory in order to resolve the problems with the LLNL detector and to update ORNL and LLNL detectors to the same configuration as the M400 supplied to the IAEA. H3D repaired the LLNL M400 and performed the IAEA updates on both the ORNL and LLNL detectors. ORNL and LLNL received the detectors in April 2021. Data acquisition was continued using the upgraded detectors. ORNL re-collected the spectra using point sources and the NBL standards in uncollimated and collimated geometries. The collimator was shipped from ORNL to LLNL. Spectra were acquired at LLNL through Q4 of FY22. When the ORNL spectra were examined closely, it became apparent that there were spurious artifacts present in some of the spectra. This rendered suspect the ORNL spectra collected in June/July 2021 time frame. ORNL contacted H3D and per H3D’s advice, the M400 detector was returned to H3D for repairs in mid-August 2021. H3D diagnosed the problem and established that the root cause was the extra tight packaging that created a strain on the CZT crystals, causing one of them to break down. The repaired M400 was returned to ORNL in early September 2021. ORNL re-started data acquisition for the third time. Data was continued to be acquired at ORNL and LLNL through September 2021. The ORNL and LLNL data will be shared with the principal investigators from the analyzing laboratories. The GADRAS code and FRAM have been developed to have the capability to analyze the M400 spectra. Good quality spectra from FY21 have been analyzed using modified versions of GADRAS and FRAM. The spectra have also been analyzed using the GEM code. The analysis results from GADRAS, FRAM and GEM codes are presented and discussed in this report. Some preliminary results from FRAM and GEM analysis were presented in February 2021 at the U-Pu Isotopics Workshop sponsored by the IAEA. CZTU code is being modified to analyze M400 spectra. Data collection, code development and analysis will be continued in FY22 as per the FY22 Project Work Plan (PWP).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Use of Receiver Operating Curve Analysis and Machine Learning With an Independent Dose Calculation System Reduces the Number of Physical Dose Measurements Required for Patient-Specific Quality Assurance

Our purpose was to assess the use of machine learning methods and Mobius 3D (M3D) dose calculation software to reduce the number of physical ion chamber (IC) dose measurements required for patient-specific quality assurance during corona virus disease 2019.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ab Initio Direct Dynamics

The reactivity and dynamics of molecular systems can be explored computationally by classical trajectory calculations. The traditional approach involves fitting a functional form of a potential energy surface (PES) to the energies from a large number of electronic structure calculations and then integrating numerous trajectories on this fitted PES to model the molecular dynamics. The ever-decreasing cost of computing and continuing advances in computational chemistry software have made it possible to use electronic structure calculations directly in molecular dynamics simulations without first having to construct a fitted PES. In this “on-the-fly” approach, every time the energy and its derivatives are needed for the integration of the equations of motion, they are obtained directly from quantum chemical calculations. This approach started to become practical in the mid-1990s as a result of increased availability of inexpensive computer resources and improved computational chemistry software. The application of direct dynamics calculations has grown rapidly over the last 25 years and would require a lengthy review article. The present Account is limited to some of our contributions to methods development and various applications. To improve the efficiency of direct dynamics calculations, we developed a Hessian-based predictor-corrector algorithm for integrating classical trajectories. Hessian updating made this even more efficient. Furthermore, this approach was also used to improve algorithms for following the steepest descent reaction paths. For larger molecular systems, we developed an extended Lagrangian approach in which the electronic structure is propagated along with the molecular structure. Strong field chemistry is a rapidly growing area, and to improve the accuracy of molecular dynamics in intense laser fields, we included the time-varying electric field in a novel predictor-corrector trajectory integration algorithm. Since intense laser fields can excite and ionize molecules, we extended our studies to include electron dynamics. Specifically, we developed code for time-dependent configuration interaction electron dynamics to simulate strong field ionization by intense laser pulses. Our initial application of ab initio direct dynamics in 1994 was to CH 2 O → H 2 + CO; the calculated vibrational distributions in the products were in very good agreement with experiment. In the intervening years, we have used direct dynamics to explore energy partitioning in various dissociation reactions, unimolecular dissociations yielding three fragments, reactions with branching after the transition state, nonstatistical dynamics of chemically activated molecules, dynamics of molecular fragmentation by intense infrared laser pulses, selective activation of specific dissociation channels by aligned intense infrared laser fields, angular dependence of strong field ionization, and simulation of sequential double ionization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Offshore Wind ENergy Simulation Toolkit (OWENS)

SAND2021-2751 O The Offshore Wind ENergy Simulation Toolkit (OWENS) is a collection of aerodynamic, structural, hydrodynamic, drivetrain, controls, composite structure and mesh preprocessing, and data postprocessing. OWENS is primarily an ontology, or glue code, pulling together many open-source and Sandia-developed libraries to model the aero-servo-hydro-elastic physics of wind and marine energy turbines. The toolkit’s intended use is for arbitrary aeroelastic rotor configurations analysis including vertical-axis wind turbines, horizontal-axis wind turbines, and analogous marine energy applications for fixed-bottom and floating configurations. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525

Owens, Brian↗
DOE OSTI2023

Application of an Empirical Density Law via Python for Aqueous Plutonium Chloride Systems in MCNP6

Current aqueous plutonium processing models for criticality safety often contain significant bias due to material modeling assumptions. These solutions include plutonium chloride solutions, which are modeled as fictitious plutonium metal-water mixtures because little is known about the actual density of the solution. Furthermore, there is no current predictive capability for modeling plutonium metal-water mixtures that is approved for use at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Recent density measurements for aqueous plutonium chloride systems (PuCl 3 -HCl-H 2 O) now allow for the development and application of a more realistic density law. This work develops a Python-based density law for this ternary solution using an empirical method. This code can be used in conjunction with an MCNP6 input to determine the density and composition of a solution based upon user inputs of plutonium concentration, hydrochloric acid concentration, and temperature. The tool allows users to input plutonium and acid content of a solution in terms of molality, molarity, or concentration, and predicts density within the current data range within 1.4% of experimental data. Current preliminary MCNP6 calculations utilizing this tool have demonstrated a minimum decrease in system reactivity of 5% in comparison to the current modeling conventions. Thus, this tool enables more accurate criticality safety operational limits by better crediting chorine content while still maintaining necessary conservatism.

Density Law↗
DOE OSTI2022

EDAT

SAND2022-13281 O EDAT is a suite of tools for analyzing time-dependent electron densities produced by time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) simulations of ion-irradiated materials and surfaces. The code’s key capabilities include various routines to extract the number of electrons emitted from a surface, the energy spectrum of these emitted electrons, and the number of electrons captured by the ion. The code is written in Python and can interface with multiple TDDFT codes. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Kononov, Alina↗
DOE OSTI2024

SAM: A Modern System Code for Advanced Non-LWR Safety Analysis

The System Analysis Module (SAM), developed at Argonne National Laboratory and by collaborators at other organizations, is for advanced non–light water reactor safety analysis. SAM aims to provide fast-running, modest-fidelity, whole-plant transient analysis capabilities that are essential for fast-turnaround design scoping and engineering analyses of advanced reactor concepts. To facilitate code development, SAM utilizes the MOOSE object-oriented application framework, its underlying finite element library, and linear and nonlinear solvers to leverage modern advanced software environments and numerical methods. SAM aims to solve tightly coupled physical phenomena, including fission reaction, heat transfer, fluid dynamics, and thermal-mechanical responses in advanced reactor structures, systems, and components with high accuracy and efficiency. Finally, this paper gives an overview of the SAM code development, including goals and functional requirements, physical models, current capabilities, verification and validation, software quality assurance, and examples of simulations for advanced nuclear reactor applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Calibration of the Diffusivity Predictions of Centipede Using Approximate Bayesian Computation and Applications in Nyx (Engineering Scale) and Xolotl-MARMOT (Meso-Scale) Simulations

Fission gas evolution and release in UO 2 nuclear fuel are important fuel performance metrics and occur in several distinct stages: 1) nucleation, growth and resolution of intra-granular bubbles, 2) diffusion to grain boundaries and 3) nucleation and growth of bubbles at grain boundaries, which eventually form a connected network (percolation) enabling release of gas from grain boundaries through connections to triple junctions, grain edges or free surfaces. The NE-SciDAC project is developing several computational tools to model this problem, which are connected in a hierarchical multi-scale framework. The information transfer in the multi-scale framework is a critical step that, in addition to best-estimates, should include uncertainty quantification. Despite taking a first-principles multi-scale approach, there is a need to perform parameter calibration to ensure consistency with available experimental data. In the present study, uncertainty quantification (UQ) and parameter calibration is demonstrated for one of the lower length scale codes in the multi-scale framework (Centipede) and then the results, including instances of the propagated uncertainties, are used in other codes within the framework, specifically Nyx and Xolotl-MARMOT. We calibrated the model parameters in Centipede, a computer code used to predict diffusivities of uranium (U) and xenon (Xe) in the context of the simulation of fission gas in uranium oxide (UO 2 ) nuclear fuel. The Centipede code depends on 183 parameters, all of which are subject to uncertainty. The three data sets used in our calibration effort are taken from the literature. This data is available as a set of measurements, including measurement errors. Our goal is to calibrate a statistical model that predicts both the value of the measurement and the uncertainty associated with the measurement. We perform a Bayesian calibration of the model parameters using a dedicated approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) likelihood function. To avoid excessive computational costs, we replace the expensive Centipede simulation code by a higher-order surrogate model, constructed using only the 9 most important parameters. These important parameters are identified by a preliminary global sensitivity analysis (GSA) study. Among the important parameters are T0 (the temperature at which UO 2 is perfectly stoichiometric) and Hf_pO2 (the temperature dependence of the oxygen (O) partial pressure) that should be considered as operating conditions to be estimated along with the other parameters. We consider two different cases: one where we define one set of these operating conditions for all data sets, and one where we define distinct operating condition parameters for each data set. The Xe diffusivities predicted by the latter case show distinct features that could not be observed in the former. Next, we use the diffusivity predictions by Centipede as input to Nyx, a reduced order fuel performance code focused on gas behavior alone, in order to estimate quantities associated with inter-granular bubble formation at conditions specified by the experiments. Finally, the diffusivities obtained from the calibrated Centipede runs were used in coupled Xolotl-MARMOT simulations of intra- and inter-granular gas evolution. The results are compared to simulations using the baseline diffusivities from Turnbull et al.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Differentiable Multiphysics Codes: A Breakthrough Technology for Simulation and Computing

This document summarizes the findings of a strategic planning exercise commissioned by the Weapons Simulation and Computing, Computational Physics (WSC/CP) program at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in FY24. During the year, the committee met with multiple stakeholder communities to gather input, opinions, suggestions and concerns which have been incorporated throughout this document. The key findings from this exercise are summarized: • The development of multiphysics modelling and simulation (mod/sim) codes and software technologies, their deployment on exascale compute platforms, and their broad adoption across the NNSA is a major success of the Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) program and the Exascale Computing Project (ECP). Sustained investment in these core technologies is essential. • Today’s state of the art involves running ensembles of O(100K) simulations to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) and design studies using multiple statistical methods such as Bayesian optimization to understand sensitivities of our models and explore parameterized design spaces. Even with exascale computing, we are practically limited to O(10) parameters in these studies since the number of simulations required to sample the space scales exponentially with the number of design parameters. • The data from these simulation ensembles is increasingly being used to train machine learned (ML) surrogates (or reduced order models, ROMs) which can then be used for optimization or real time design exploration. However, the trained surrogates are still limited in the number of parameters they can represent due to the sampling limitations previously noted. • Augmenting our suite of integrated multiphysics simulation codes, both current and emerging, with the ability to compute gradients (solution derivatives) of arbitrary simulation outputs with respect to (some or all) simulation inputs would be a breakthrough technology, opening the door to a new era of efficient and automated inverse design based on verified and validated mod/sim capabilities. • This capability, which we refer to as differentiable multiphysics codes (DMCs), would revolutionize both UQ and optimization studies by breaking the curse of dimensionality that presently limits our “gradient-free” ensemble based computing approach. A similar breakthrough occurred in the AI/ML community once the ability to compute gradients of arbitrary loss functions using back-propagation became commonplace. Gradient information from the multiphysics codes can also be used to dramatically improve the efficiency and scale of training of ML/ROM surrogates for rapid assessments. • Achieving this in our suite of codes will be a grand challenge, similar to the amount of effort that was required to transition from CPU to GPU computing. It will require buy-in from the entire WSC/CP program and beyond, including all integrated codes, physics and engineering models, third-party library dependencies and performance portability abstractions. It will also require investment in research and development of numerical methods for computing adjoints of coupled physics across multiple adaptively refined moving meshes and of stochastic (Monte Carlo) and mesh free (SPH) methods. • New software and numerical techniques, largely pioneered by the AI/ML community, make this feasible. Chief among these is automatic differentiation (AD), the ability to employ AD at point-wise locations in a physics calculation (instead of traditional black-box approaches) and the ability to perform “back-propagation in time” (or reverse mode AD) for non-linear partial differential equations (PDEs). Fundamentally, the conclusion of this strategic planning exercise is that the time is right to undertake a large scale effort in WSC, centered on the existing integrated codes, to continue the natural evolution of mod/sim in the age of AI/ML. Instead of attempting to replace mod/sim with purely data driven AI/ML models, we believe the key to success is to integrate AI/ML by building on top of the decades of hard-won knowledge and the verified/validated multiphysics modelling capability that is the hallmark of the ASC program.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗