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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9

Evaluating EAMv2 Simulated High Latitude Clouds Using ARM Measurements in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres

Here, this study evaluates high latitude stratiform mixed-phase clouds (SMPC) in the atmosphere model of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (EAMv2) by utilizing one-year-long ground-based remote sensing measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation and Measurement (ARM) program. A nudging approach is applied to model simulations for a constrained comparison with the ARM observations. Observed and modeled SMPCs are sampled and collocated to address the difference in data resolution, so that we can consistently evaluate their macrophysical properties at the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) site in the Arctic and the McMurdo (AWR) site in the Antarctic. We found that EAMv2 overestimates SMPC frequency of occurrence at both sites. However, the model captures the observed larger cloud frequency of occurrence at the NSA site. For collocated SMPCs, the annual statistics of observed cloud macrophysics are generally reproduced at the NSA site, while at the AWR site, there are larger biases. Compared to the AWR site, the lower cloud top and cloud base and the warmer cloud top temperature observed at NSA are well simulated. On the other hand, simulated cloud phase is substantially biased. The model largely overestimates liquid water path, and the ice water path is underestimated at NSA, but at AWR, the liquid water path is frequently underestimated due to the dominance of snow in Antarctic SMPCs. As a result, the observed hemispheric difference in cloud phase partitioning is misrepresented in EAMv2. This study implies that additional model development is needed for high latitude mixed-phase clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing Drought and Fire Conditions, Trends, and Susceptibility to Inform State Mitigation Efforts and Bolster Monitoring Protocol in North Central Idaho

Escalating severity and frequency of drought and wildfire call for effective and cost-efficient mitigation planning and monitoring protocols. The Palouse ecoregion, an agricultural epicenter in North-central Idaho, is of particular concern as both drought and wildfire present substantial economic threats. The DEVELOP team implemented Earth observation data to assist the Idaho Office of Emergency Management, Idaho Department of Water Resources, and Idaho Department of Lands in updating the state’s Hazard Mitigation Plan by enhancing their drought and fire monitoring capabilities. The team utilized Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), and Aqua and Terra’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), along with ancillary datasets, to assess drought indicators and map hazard susceptibility. The team upgraded the state’s current fire hazard model by updating existing data layers and adding drought indicator data to support partners’ continued assessment of fire hazard conditions. The team observed Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) spikes during the highest fire occurrence and burned area years in the study period: 2015 and 2021. Models from dry, high fire occurrence and burned area year 2015 outperformed models from mesic, low fire occurrence and burned area year 2016. The increased understanding of drought conditions and fire susceptibility in this ecosystem will assist partners in improving land management practices.

Ford Freyberg↗

Predicting Ground Delay Program at an Airport Based on Meteorological Conditions

In this paper, we present two supervised-learning models, logistic regression and decision tree, to predict occurrence of ground delay program at an airport based on meteorological conditions and scheduled traffic demand. Such predictive capabilities can help the Federal Aviation Administration traffic managers and airline dispatchers to prepare mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of adverse weather. The models are applied to predict ground delay program occurrence at two major U.S. airports: Newark Liberty Intl. and San Francisco Intl. airports. The logistic regression model estimates the probability that a ground delay program will occur during a given hour. Decision tree, on the other hand, classifies an hour as a ground delay program or not based on the input variables. Results indicate that both models perform significantly better than a purely random prediction of ground delay program occurrence at the two airports. The logistic regression model performs better than the decision tree model. The degree to which various input variables impact the probability of ground delay program vary between the two airports. While the enroute convective weather is a dominant factor causing ground delay programs at New York airports, poor visibility and low cloud ceiling caused by marine stratus are major drivers of ground delay programs at San Francisco Intl. airport.

traffic flow management↗

Precipitation and Moisture in Four Leading CMIP5 Models: Biases across Large-Scale Circulation Regimes and Their Attribution to Dynamic and Thermodynamic Factors

As key variables in general circulation models, precipitation and moisture in four leading models from CMIP5 (phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) are analyzed, with a focus on four tropical oceanic regions. It is found that precipitation in these models is overestimated in most areas. However, moisture bias has large intermodel differences. The model biases in precipitation and moisture are further examined in conjunction with large-scale circulation by regime-sorting analysis. Results show that all models consistently overestimate the frequency of occurrence of strong upward motion regimes and peak descending regimes of 500-hPa vertical velocity $ω500$. In a given $ω500$ regime, models produce too much precipitation compared to observation and reanalysis. But for moisture, their biases differ from model to model and also from level to level. Furthermore, error causes are revealed through decomposing contribution biases into dynamic and thermodynamic components. For precipitation, the contribution errors in strong upward motion regimes are attributed to the overly frequent $ω500$. In the weak upward motion regime, the biases in the dependence of precipitation on $ω500$ and the $ω500$ probability density function (PDF) make comparable contributions, but often of opposite signs. On the other hand, the biases in column-integrated water vapor contribution are mainly due to errors in the frequency of occurrence of $ω500$, while thermodynamic components contribute little. These findings suggest that errors in the frequency of $ω500$ occurrence are a significant cause of biases in the precipitation and moisture simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Optical Counterpart to Gamma-Ray Burst GRB 970228 Observed Using the Hubble Space Telescope

Although more than 2,000 astronomical gamma-ray bursts (GRBS) have been detected, and numerous models proposed to explain their occurrence, they have remained enigmatic owing to the lack of an obvious counterpart at other wavelengths. The recent ground-based detection of a transient optical source in the vicinity of GRB970228 may therefore have provided a breakthrough. The optical counterpart appears to be embedded in an extended source which, if a galaxy, as has been suggested would lend weight to those models that place GRBs at cosmological distances. Here we report, observations using the Hubble Space Telescope of the transient counterpart and extended source 26 and 39 days after the initial gamma-ray outburst. We find that the counterpart has faded since the initial detection (and continues to fade), but the extended source exhibits no significant change in brightness between the two dates of the observations reported here. The size and apparent constancy of the extended source imply that it is extragalactic, but its faintness makes a definitive statement about its nature difficult. Nevertheless, the decay profile of the transient source is consistent with a popular impulsive-fireball model13, which assumes a merger between two neutron stars in a distant galaxy.

Sahu, K. C.↗

An Improved Solar Cycle Statistical Model for the Projection of Near Future Sunspot Cycles

Since the current solar cycle 23 has progressed near the end of the cycle and accurate solar minimum and maximum occurrences have been defined, a statistical model based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles was reexamined. Separate calculations of activity levels were made for the rising and declining phases in solar cycle 23, which resulted in improved projection of sunspots in the remainder of cycle 23. Because a fundamental understanding of the transition from cycle to cycle has not been developed, at this time it is assumed for projection purposes that solar cycle 24 will continue at the same activity level in the declining phase of cycle 23. Projection errors in solar cycle 24 can be corrected as the cycle progresses and observations become available because this model is shown to be self-correcting.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗

Estimated Probability of a Cervical Spine Injury During an ISS Mission

Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) utilizes historical data, cohort data, and external simulations as input factors to provide estimates of crew health, resource utilization and mission outcomes. The Cervical Spine Injury Module (CSIM) is an external simulation designed to provide the IMM with parameter estimates for 1) a probability distribution function (PDF) of the incidence rate, 2) the mean incidence rate, and 3) the standard deviation associated with the mean resulting from injury/trauma of the neck. Methods: An injury mechanism based on an idealized low-velocity blunt impact to the superior posterior thorax of an ISS crewmember was used as the simulated mission environment. As a result of this impact, the cervical spine is inertially loaded from the mass of the head producing an extension-flexion motion deforming the soft tissues of the neck. A multibody biomechanical model was developed to estimate the kinematic and dynamic response of the head-neck system from a prescribed acceleration profile. Logistic regression was performed on a dataset containing AIS1 soft tissue neck injuries from rear-end automobile collisions with published Neck Injury Criterion values producing an injury transfer function (ITF). An injury event scenario (IES) was constructed such that crew 1 is moving through a primary or standard translation path transferring large volume equipment impacting stationary crew 2. The incidence rate for this IES was estimated from in-flight data and used to calculate the probability of occurrence. The uncertainty in the model input factors were estimated from representative datasets and expressed in terms of probability distributions. A Monte Carlo Method utilizing simple random sampling was employed to propagate both aleatory and epistemic uncertain factors. Scatterplots and partial correlation coefficients (PCC) were generated to determine input factor sensitivity. CSIM was developed in the SimMechanics/Simulink environment with a Monte Carlo wrapper (MATLAB) used to integrate the components of the module. Results: The probability of generating an AIS1 soft tissue neck injury from the extension/flexion motion induced by a low-velocity blunt impact to the superior posterior thorax was fitted with a lognormal PDF with mean 0.26409, standard deviation 0.11353, standard error of mean 0.00114, and 95% confidence interval [0.26186, 0.26631]. Combining the probability of an AIS1 injury with the probability of IES occurrence was fitted with a Johnson SI PDF with mean 0.02772, standard deviation 0.02012, standard error of mean 0.00020, and 95% confidence interval [0.02733, 0.02812]. The input factor sensitivity analysis in descending order was IES incidence rate, ITF regression coefficient 1, impactor initial velocity, ITF regression coefficient 2, and all others (equipment mass, crew 1 body mass, crew 2 body mass) insignificant. Verification and Validation (V&V): The IMM V&V, based upon NASA STD 7009, was implemented which included an assessment of the data sets used to build CSIM. The documentation maintained includes source code comments and a technical report. The software code and documentation is under Subversion configuration management. Kinematic validation was performed by comparing the biomechanical model output to established corridors.

Brooker, John E.↗

Statistical Prediction of Solar Particle Event Frequency Based on the Measurements of Recent Solar Cycles for Acute Radiation Risk Analysis

Large solar particle events (SPEs) present significant acute radiation risks to the crew members during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) or in lightly shielded space vehicles for space missions beyond the protection of the Earth's magnetic field. Acute radiation sickness (ARS) can impair performance and result in failure of the mission. Improved forecasting capability and/or early-warning systems and proper shielding solutions are required to stay within NASA's short-term dose limits. Exactly how to make use of observations of SPEs for predicting occurrence and size is a great challenge, because SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature even though the expected frequency of SPEs is strongly influenced by the time position within the solar activity cycle. Therefore, we developed a probabilistic model approach, where a cumulative expected occurrence curve of SPEs for a typical solar cycle was formed from a non-homogeneous Poisson process model fitted to a database of proton fluence measurements of SPEs that occurred during the past 5 solar cycles (19 - 23) and those of large SPEs identified from impulsive nitrate enhancements in polar ice. From the fitted model, the expected frequency of SPEs was estimated at any given proton fluence threshold (Phi(sub E)) with energy (E) >30 MeV during a defined space mission period. Corresponding Phi(sub E) (E=30, 60, and 100 MeV) fluence distributions were simulated with a random draw from a gamma distribution, and applied for SPE ARS risk analysis for a specific mission period. It has been found that the accurate prediction of deep-seated organ doses was more precisely predicted at high energies, Phi(sub 100), than at lower energies such as Phi(sub 30) or Phi(sub 60), because of the high penetration depth of high energy protons. Estimates of ARS are then described for 90th and 95th percentile events for several mission lengths and for several likely organ dose-rates. The ability to accurately measure high energy protons (50-300 MeV) in real-time is shown to be a crucial issue for crew protection.

Myung-Hee, Y. Kim↗

Application of a Reynolds stress model to separating boundary layers

Separating turbulent boundary layers occur in many practical engineering applications. Nonetheless, the physics of separation/reattachment of flows is poorly understood. During the past decade, various turbulence models were proposed and their ability to successfully predict some types of flows was shown. However. prediction of separating/reattaching flows is still a formidable task for model developers. The present study is concerned with the process of separation from a smooth surface. Features of turbulent separating boundary layers that are relevant to modeling include the following: the occurrence of zero wall shear stress, which causes breakdown of the boundary layer approximation; the law of the wall not being satisfied in the mean back flow region; high turbulence levels in the separated region; a significant low-frequency motion in the separation bubble; and the turbulence structure of the separated shear layer being quite different from that of either the mixing layers or the boundary layers. These special characteristics of separating boundary layers make it difficult for simple turbulence models to correctly predict their behavior.

Ko, Sung HO↗

Nondestructive Damage Detection of Concrete With Alkali-Silica Reactions Using Coda Wave and Anomaly Detection

An anomaly detection model for early damage detection for concrete structures undergoing alkali-silica reaction (ASR) is presented. It is difficult to detect ASR initiation and early damage without a reference expansion measurement. Coda waves, or the multiply scattered portion of ultrasonic waves, have been found to be indicative of small changes in complex material such as concrete. The relationship between concrete damage and relative velocity change and decorrelation of coda waves has been studied, but a generalized model which detects when damage occurs in a concrete structure is still lacking. The presented method uses features extracted from coda waves to detect early damage in concrete structures. The model uses unsupervised learning and only requires data from undamaged structures for training. During the training process, the reconstruction error of the training data is minimized. When the data collected from damaged concrete structures is used as an input of the model, it returns high reconstruction errors that indicate the occurrence of damage in the structures. The performance of the model is validated using experimental studies and has been shown to generalize across two different ASR specimens.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Initial Results from the Floating Potential Measurement Unit aboard the International Space Station

The Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) is a multi-probe package designed to measure the floating potential of the 1nternational Space Station (ISS) as well as the density and temperature of the local ionospheric plasma environment. The role oj the FPMU is to provide direct measurements of ISS spacecraft charging as continuing construction leads to dramatic changes in ISS size and configuration. FPMU data are used for refinement and validation of the ISS spacecraft charging models used to evaluate the severity and frequency of occurrence of ISS charging hazards. The FPMU data and the models are also used to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed hazard controls. The FPMU consists of four probes: a floating potential probe, two Langmuir probes. and a plasma impedance probe. These probes measure the floating potential of the ISS, plasma density, and electron temperature. Redundant measurements using different probes support data validation by inter-probe comparisons. The FPMU was installed by ISS crewmembers, during an ExtraVehicular Activity, on the starboard (Sl) truss of the ISS in early August 2006, when the ISS incorporated only one 160V US photovoltaic (PV) array module. The first data campaign began a few hours after installation and continued for over five days. Additional data campaigns were completed in 2007 after a second 160V US PV array module was added to the ISS. This paper discusses the general performance characteristics of the FPMU as integrated on ISS, the functional performance of each probe, the charging behavior of the ISS before and after the addition of a second 160V US PV array module, and initial results from model comparisons.

Wright, Kenneth H., Jr.↗

Growing grasses in unprofitable areas of US Midwest croplands could increase species richness

The US has large potential to grow perennial energy crops, but because these crops are rarely grown in current agricultural landscapes, it is unclear how biodiversity may be affected. Over time, as agriculture has increased, many grassland species have declined. In addition, not all agricultural land is profitable for growing annual crops. Unprofitable areas were responsible for a loss of approximately $110 million USD per year from 2013 to 2016. Based on this, we want to know how converting less-profitable portions of agricultural fields to switchgrass, a native prairie grass, would influence species occurrence. To address this question, we developed an alternative landscape in which clustered corn/soy acres with a low return on investment (ROI) were replaced with grassland. We also developed and validated species distribution models to predict changes in species occurrence for 28 avian species in Iowa in response to landscape management. Furthermore, we compared results for three different models: Random forest (RF), Stochastic gradient boosting (GBM), and Neural network (Nnet) and found that all models performed well and predicted similar species distribution. Predicted species richness increased by 3.66% (RF), 2.79% (GBM), and 7.51% (Nnet) when we simulated a change in management for ~3% of Iowa's low ROI corn/soybean areas to grassland. If harvested, these areas could generate approximately 7.6 million dry tons/year of switchgrass for bioenergy, thereby increasing farmers earnings. Unprofitable areas tended to occur along streams, which suggest that incorporating partially harvested riparian buffers can benefit avian biodiversity, while improving water quality and reducing unnecessary costs for farmers.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Organ Dose Assessment and Evaluation of Cancer Risk on Mars Surface

Organ specific fluence spectra and doses for large solar particle events (SPE) and galactic cosmic rays (GCR) at various levels of solar activity are simulated on the surface of Mars using the HZETRN/QMSFRG computer code and the 2010 version of the Badhwar and O Neill GCR model. The NASA JSC propensity model of SPE fluence and occurrence is used to consider upper bounds on SPE fluence for increasing mission lengths. To account for the radiation transmission through the Mars atmosphere, a vertical distribution of Mars atmospheric thickness is calculated from the temperature and pressure data of Mars Global Surveyor. To describe the spherically distributed atmospheric distance on the Mars surface at each elevation, the directional cosine distribution is implemented. The resultant directional shielding by Mars atmosphere at each elevation is then coupled with vehicle and body shielding for organ dose estimates. Finally, cancer risks for astronauts exploring Mars can be assessed by applying the NASA Space Radiation Cancer Risk 2010 model with the resultant organ dose estimates. Variations of organ doses and cancer risk quantities on the surface of Mars, which are due to a 16-km elevation range between the Tharsis Montes and the Hellas impact basin, are visualized on the global topography of Mars measured by the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter. It is found that cancer incidence risks are about 2-fold higher than mortality risks with a disproportionate increase in skin and thyroid cancers for male and female astronauts and in breast cancer for female astronauts. The number of safe days, defined by the upper 95% percent confidence level to be below cancer limits, on Mars is analyzed for several Mars mission design scenarios.

Kim, Myung-Hee↗

The Influence of Land Use and Land Cover Change on Landslide Susceptibility in the Lower Mekong River Basin

The Lower Mekong River Basin in Southeast Asia experiences frequent rainfall-triggered landslides especially during the monsoon season. In this study, the influence of land use and land cover change and other causative factors on landslide susceptibility is evaluated in the Lower Mekong Basin. Frequency ratio analysis is performed to quantify the relationship between LULC change and susceptibility. Detailed landslide inventory maps are used for analysis with yearly LULC maps. The LULC change is used as a contributing variable in a logistic regression-based susceptibility model with other variables including distance to roads, slope, aspect, forest loss, and soil properties. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and Area Under the Curve are estimated for the model trained by each landslide inventory. The models show good performance, with AUC values ranging from 0.697 to 0.958 and an average AUC equal to 0.820. Both the Frequency Ratio analysis and the Logistic Regression models indicate LULC change from agricultural land to forest has a positive correlation with landslide occurrence. The most significant factors in the models are found to be distance to roads, slope, and aspect. A better understanding of the effects of LULC on landslide susceptibility can be useful for local land and disaster management and for the implementation of LULC as a factor in future susceptibility models. Using datasets that are unique to the Lower Mekong region, this study provides additional insights into the relationship between causative factors and landslide activity to better inform regional and global landslide susceptibility modeling.

River Basin↗

The impact of plant‐derived fire management prescriptions on fire‐responsive bird species

Abstract In fire‐prone regions, the occurrence of some faunal species is contingent on the presence of resources that arise through post‐fire plant succession. Through planned burning, managers can alter resource availability and aim to provide the conditions required to promote biodiversity. Understanding how species occurrence changes at different spatial and temporal scales after fire is essential to achieve this goal. However, many fire prescriptions are guided primarily by the responses of fire‐sensitive plants when setting tolerable fire intervals. This approach assumes that maintaining floristic diversity will satisfy the requirements of fauna. We surveyed bird species in two semi‐arid vegetation types across an environmental gradient in south‐eastern Australia. We conducted four surveys at each of 253 sites across a 75‐year chronosequence of time since fire and used generalized additive mixed models to examine changes in the occurrence of birds in response to time since fire. Model predictions were compared to plant‐derived fire prescriptions currently guiding fire management in the region. Time since fire was a significant predictor for 18 of 28 species modeled, in at least one vegetation type, over a gradient of 1.3° of latitude. We detected considerable variation in the responses of some species, both between vegetation types and geographically within a vegetation type. Our evaluation of plant‐derived fire prescriptions suggests that the intervals considered acceptable for maintaining floristic diversity may not be sustainable for populations of birds requiring longer unburnt vegetation, with 6 of the 12 species assessed attaining a mean occurrence probability of 20.3% by the minimum tolerable fire interval, and 57.3% by the maximum tolerable fire interval, in their respective vegetation types. Our findings highlight the potential vulnerability of fire‐responsive bird species if fire prescriptions are applied in a manner that fails to account for the slow development of habitat resources needed by some species, and the variation detected within the responses of species. This highlights the need for species‐specific data collected at an appropriate spatial scale to inform management plans.

Makdissi, Rhys↗

Integration of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm into Current Operational Warning Environment Conceptual Models

The purpose of the total lightning jump algorithm (LJA) is to provide forecasters with an additional tool to identify potentially hazardous thunderstorms, yielding increased confidence in decisions within the operational warning environment. The LJA was first developed to objectively indentify rapid increases in total lightning (also termed "lightning jumps") that occur prior to the observance of severe and hazardous weather (Williams et al. 1999, Schultz et al. 2009, Gatlin and Goodman 2010, Schultz et al. 2011). However, a physical and framework leading up to and through the time of a lightning jump is still lacking within the literature. Many studies infer that there is a large increase in the updraft prior to or during the jump, but are not specific on what properties of the updraft are indeed increasing (e.g., maximum updraft speed vs volume or both) likely because these properties were not specifically observed. Therefore, the purpose of this work is to physically associate lightning jump occurrence to polarimetric and multi-Doppler radar measured thunderstorm intensity metrics and severe weather occurrence, thus providing a conceptual model that can be used to adapt the LJA to current operations.

Schultz, C. J.↗

Development of Surface Sampling Techniques for the Canister Deposition Field Demonstration (FY22 Update)

This report describes the proposed surface sampling techniques and plan for the multi-year Canister Deposition Field Demonstration (CDFD). The CDFD is primarily a dust deposition test that will use three commercial 32PTH2 NUHOMS welded stainless steel storage canisters in Advanced Horizontal Storage Modules, with planned exposure testing for up to 10 years at an operating ISFSI site. One canister will be left at ambient condition, unheated; the other two will have heaters to achieve canister surface temperatures that match, to the degree possible, spent nuclear fuel (SNF) loaded canisters with heat loads of 10 kW and 40 kW. Surface sampling campaigns for dust analysis will take place on a yearly or bi-yearly basis. The goal of the planned dust sampling and analysis is to determine important environmental parameters that impact the potential occurrence of stress corrosion cracking on SNF dry storage canisters. Specifically, measured dust deposition rates and deposited particle sizes will improve parameterization of dust deposition models employed to predict the potential occurrence and timing of stress corrosion cracks on the stainless steel SNF canisters. The size, morphology, and composition of the deposited dust and salt particles will be quantified, as well as the soluble salt load per unit area and the rate of deposition, as a function of canister surface temperature, location, time, and orientation. Previously, a preliminary sampling plan was developed, identifying possible sampling locations on the canister surfaces and sampling intervals; possible sampling methods were also described. Further development of the sampling plan has commenced through three different tasks. First, canister surface roughness, a potentially important parameter for air flow and dust deposition, was characterized at several locations on one of the test canisters. Second, corrosion testing to evaluate the potential lifetime and aging of thermocouple wires, spot welds, and attachments was initiated. Third, hand sampling protocols were developed, and initial testing was carried out. The results of those efforts are presented in this report. The information obtained from the CDFD will be critical for ongoing efforts to develop a detailed understanding of the potential for stress corrosion cracking of SNF dry storage canisters.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗