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DOE OSTI2021

Energy Budget Constraints on the Time History of Aerosol Forcing and Climate Sensitivity

Abstract An observationally constrained time series of historical aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) from 1750 to 2019 is developed in this study. We find that the time history of aerosol ERFs diagnosed in CMIP6 models exhibits considerable variation and explore how the time history of aerosol forcing influences the probability distributions of present‐day aerosol forcing and emergent metrics such as climate sensitivity. Using a simple energy balance model, trained on CMIP6 climate models and constrained by observed near‐surface warming and ocean heat uptake, we derive estimates for the historical aerosol forcing. We find 2005–2014 mean aerosol ERF to be −1.1 (−1.8 to −0.5) W m −2 relative to 1750. Assuming recently published historical emissions from fossil fuel and industrial sectors and biomass burning emissions from SSP2‐4.5, aerosol ERF in 2019 is −0.9 (−1.5 to −0.4) W m −2 . There is a modest recovery in aerosol forcing (+0.025 W m −2 decade −1 ) between 1980 and 2014. This analysis also gives a 5%–95% range of equilibrium climate sensitivity of 1.8°C –5.1°C (best estimate 3.1°C) with a transient climate response of 1.2°C –2.6°C (best estimate 1.8°C).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Regional Impacts of Ice Sheet Surface Representation Improvements in an Earth System Model

Ice sheet surface conditions and their subsequent impact on surface mass balance play an important role in ice sheet dynamics and ice sheet interaction with the overlying atmosphere and surrounding ocean. The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s (GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) ecosystem of models and reanalyses model ice sheet and glacier surface mass balance with a moderately complex snow and ice module, including prognostic surface albedo evolution, fractional snow cover, and snowpack hydrology and meltwater retention. With this configuration, Greenland near surface air temperatures and ice sheet melt are well represented in MERRA-2, GMAO’s current atmospheric reanalysis; however, the similarity to observations in some regions is due, in part, to compensating biases in surface energy budget. Recent improvements to GEOS’ cloud microphysics and longwave radiation parameterizations reduced biases in surface net longwave radiation and exacerbated surface net shortwave radiation biases, effectively increasing near surface temperatures and melting, particularly during the summer months. Here, we demonstrate the Earth system response to an improved representation of the ice sheet surface focused on minimizing the surface energy biases and increasing spatial and temporal representativeness. New changes to the surface albedo parameterization, including the introduction of a prognostic aerosol darkening scheme, help mitigate shortwave biases, while modifications to surface roughness characteristics improve near surface sensible heat fluxes. Focusing on the Arctic and Greenland, we examine the combined impact on these changes on regional weather conditions and ice sheet surface mass balance using a high resolution atmospheric only experiment, and we use a coupled model configuration to assess the impact on oceanic conditions and subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Overall, these improvements increase modeled ice sheet surface realism and provide a strong basis for more accurate ice sheet mass balance in GMAO’s future reanalyses and forecasting systems.

Lauren C Andrews↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Regional Impacts of Ice Sheet Surface Representation Improvements in an Earth System Model

Lauren C. Andrews↗

NASA NTRS2001

Sensitivity of the Tropical Atmospheric Energy Balance to ENSO-Related SST Changes: Comparison of Climate Model Simulations to Observed Responses

This paper focuses on how fresh water and radiative fluxes over the tropical oceans change during ENSO warm and cold events and how these changes affect the tropical energy balance. At present, ENSO remains the most prominent known mode of natural variability at interannual time scales. While this natural perturbation to climate is quite distinct from possible anthropogenic changes in climate, adjustments in the tropical water and energy budgets during ENSO may give insight into feedback processes involving water vapor and cloud feedbacks. Although great advances have been made in understanding this phenomenon and realizing prediction skill over the past decade, our ability to document the coupled water and energy changes observationally and to represent them in climate models seems far from settled (Soden, 2000 J Climate). In a companion paper we have presented observational analyses, based principally on space-based measurements which document systematic changes in rainfall, evaporation, and surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes. Here we analyze several contemporary climate models run with observed SSTs over recent decades and compare SST-induced changes in radiation, precipitation, evaporation, and energy transport to observational results. Among these are the NASA / NCAR Finite Volume Model, the NCAR Community Climate Model, the NCEP Global Spectral Model, and the NASA NSIPP Model. Key disagreements between model and observational results noted in the recent literature are shown to be due predominantly to observational shortcomings. A reexamination of the Langley 8-Year Surface Radiation Budget data reveals errors in the SST surface longwave emission due to biased SSTs. Subsequent correction allows use of this data set along with ERBE TOA fluxes to infer net atmospheric radiative heating. Further analysis of recent rainfall algorithms provides new estimates for precipitation variability in line with interannual evaporation changes inferred from the da Silva, Young, Levitus COADS analysis. The overall results from our analysis suggest an increase (decrease) of the hydrologic cycle during ENSO warm (cold) events at the rate of about 5 W/sq m per K of SST change. Model results agree reasonably well with this estimate of sensitivity. This rate is slightly less than that which would be expected for constant relative humidity over the tropical oceans. There remain, however, significant quantitative uncertainties in cloud forcing changes in the models as compared to observations. These differences are examined in relationship to model convection and cloud parameterizations Analysis of the possible sampling and measurement errors compared to systematic model errors is also presented.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Evidence for Interannual to Decadal Variations in Hadley and Walker Circulations and Links to Water and Energy Fluxes

Mass and energy transports associated with the Hadley and Walker circulations are important components of the earth s climate system and are strongly linked to hydrologic processes. Interannual to decadal variation in these flows likely signify a combination of natural climate noise as well as a response to anthropgenic forcing. There remains considerable uncertainty in quantifying variations in these flows. Evidence in the surface pressure record supports a weakening of the Walker circulation over the Pacific in recent decades. Conversely the NCEP / NCAR and ERA 40 reanalyses indicate that the Hadley circulation has increased in strength over the last two decades, though these analyses depict significantly different mass circulation changes. Interestingly, the NCEP - II / DOE reanalysis contains essentially no Hadley circulation changes. Most climate model integrations anticipate a weakening of both tropical circulations associated with stronger static stability. Clearly there is much uncertainty not only with the mass transports, but also how they are linked to water and energy balance of the planet through variations in turbulent heat and radiative fluxes and horizontal exports / imports of energy. Here we examine heat and water budget variations from a number of reanalysis products and focus on the linear and nonlinear response of ENSO warm and cold events as opportunities to study budget variations over the past 15-20 years. Our analysis addresses such questions as To what extent do Hadley and Walker Cell variations compensate each other on mass and energy transport? Do static stability adjustments appear to constrain fractional precipitation response vs. fractional water vapor response? We appeal to constraints offered by GPCP precipitation, SSWI ocean evaporation estimates, and ISCCP-FD radiative fluxes, and other satellite data sets to interpret and confirm reanalysis-based diagnostics. Using our findings we also attempt to place in context the recent findings that tropical ocean evaporation increased by order 5% or more during the 1990s, reconciling this with GPCP precipitation variations.

Robertson, Franklin↗

NASA NTRS2011

Major Characteristics of Southern Ocean Cloud Regimes and Their Effects on the Energy Budget

Clouds over the Southern Ocean are often poorly represented by climate models, but they make a significant contribution to the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation balance, particularly in the shortwave portion of the energy spectrum. This study seeks to better quantify the organization and structure of Southern Hemisphere midlatitude clouds by combining measurements from active and passive satellite-based datasets. Geostationary and polar-orbiter satellite data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) are used to quantify large-scale, recurring modes of cloudiness, and active observations from CloudSat and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) are used to examine vertical structure, radiative heating rates, and precipitation associated with these clouds. It is found that cloud systems are organized into eight distinct regimes and that ISCCP overestimates the midlevel cloudiness of these regimes. All regimes contain a relatively high occurrence of low cloud, with 79%of all cloud layers observed having tops below 3 km, but multiple-layered clouds systems are present in approximately 34% of observed cloud profiles. The spatial distribution of regimes varies according to season, with cloud systems being geometrically thicker, on average, during the austral winter. Those regimes found to be most closely associated with midlatitude cyclones produce precipitation the most frequently, although drizzle is extremely common in low-cloud regimes. The regimes associated with cyclones have the highest in-regime shortwave cloud radiative effect at the TOA, but the low-cloud regimes, by virtue of their high frequency of occurrence over the oceans, dominate both TOA and surface shortwave effects in this region as a whole.

Haynes, John M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Role of Intense Arctic Storm in Accelerating Summer Sea Ice Melt: An In Situ Observational Study

Abstract Intense storms have been more frequently observed in the Arctic during recent years, in coincidence with extreme sea ice loss events. However, it is still not fully understood how storms drive such events due to deficient observations and modeling discrepancies. Here we address this problem by analyzing in situ observations acquired during an Arctic expedition, which uniquely captured an intense storm in summer 2016. The result shows a pronounced acceleration of sea ice loss during the storm process. Diagnostic analysis indicates a net energy loss at the ice surface, not supporting the accelerated melting. Although the open water surface gained net heat energy, it was insufficient to increase the mixed‐layer temperature to the observed values. Dynamic analysis suggests that storm‐driven increase in ocean mixing and upward Ekman pumping of the Pacific‐origin warm water tremendously increased oceanic heat flux. The thermal advection by the Ekman pumping led to a warmed mixed layer by 0.05°C–0.12°C and, in consequence, an increased basal sea ice melt rate by 0.1–1.7 cm day −1 .

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying the impacts of atmospheric rivers on the surface energy budget of the Arctic based on reanalysis

We present a comprehensive analysis of Arctic surface energy budget (SEB) components during atmospheric river (AR) events identified by integrated water vapor transport exceeding the monthly 85th-percentile climatological threshold in 3-hourly ERA5 reanalysis data from January 1980 to December 2019. Analysis of average anomalies in SEB components, net SEB, and the overall AR contribution to both the seasonal SEB components and net SEB climatology reveals clear seasonality and distinct land–sea–sea ice contrast patterns. Over the sea-ice-covered central Arctic Ocean, ARs significantly impact net SEB, inducing substantial surface warming in fall, winter, and spring. This warming is primarily driven by large anomalies in surface downward longwave radiation (LWD), which average 29–45 W m −2 during the cold seasons. In contrast, AR-related LWD anomalies are smaller in summer, averaging around 15 W m −2 , indicating a reduced impact during this season. Over sub-polar oceans, ARs have the most substantial positive impact on net SEB in cold seasons, mainly attributed to significant positive turbulent heat flux anomalies. AR-related turbulent heat anomalies reduce the upward turbulent flux, contributing up to −11 % relative to its seasonal climatology. In summer, ARs induce negative impacts on net SEB, primarily due to reduced shortwave radiation from increased cloud cover during AR events. Over continents, ARs generate smaller absolute impacts on net SEB because the large LWD anomalies are largely offset by corresponding increases in upward longwave radiation, particularly during cold seasons. Additionally, the seemingly large relative contributions of ARs to the net SEB over land primarily reflects the small magnitude of the climatological net SEB over continents. Greenland, especially western Greenland, exhibits significant downward longwave radiation anomalies associated with ARs, which drive large net SEB anomalies and contribute >54 % to mean SEB and induce amplified surface warming year-round. This holds significance for melt events, particularly during summer. Additionally, results of AR-related SEB impacts strongly depend on detection methods, as restrictive AR detection algorithms that emphasize extreme AR events, with large AR-related anomalies, do not necessarily indicate a large overall contribution to the SEB climatology due to the low occurrence frequency of these events. This study quantifies the role of ARs in the surface energy budget, contributing to our understanding of the Arctic warming and sea ice decline in ongoing Arctic amplification.

Arctic Sea ice change↗

DOE OSTI2023

The winter central Arctic surface energy budget: A model evaluation using observations from the MOSAiC campaign

This study evaluates the simulation of wintertime (15 October, 2019, to 15 March, 2020) statistics of the central Arctic near-surface atmosphere and surface energy budget observed during the MOSAiC campaign with short-term forecasts from 7 state-of-the-art operational and experimental forecast systems. Five of these systems are fully coupled ocean-sea ice-atmosphere models. Forecast systems need to simultaneously simulate the impact of radiative effects, turbulence, and precipitation processes on the surface energy budget and near-surface atmospheric conditions in order to produce useful forecasts of the Arctic system. This study focuses on processes unique to the Arctic, such as, the representation of liquid-bearing clouds at cold temperatures and the representation of a persistent stable boundary layer. It is found that contemporary models still struggle to maintain liquid water in clouds at cold temperatures. Given the simple balance between net longwave radiation, sensible heat flux, and conductive ground flux in the wintertime Arctic surface energy balance, a bias in one of these components manifests as a compensating bias in other terms. This study highlights the different manifestations of model bias and the potential implications on other terms. Three general types of challenges are found within the models evaluated: representing the radiative impact of clouds, representing the interaction of atmospheric heat fluxes with sub-surface fluxes (i.e., snow and ice properties), and representing the relationship between stability and turbulent heat fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1998

Surface Heat Budgets and Sea Surface Temperature in the Pacific Warm Pool During TOGA COARE

The daily mean heat and momentum fluxes at the surface derived from the SSM/I and Japan's GMS radiance measurements are used to study the temporal and spatial variability of the surface energy budgets and their relationship to the sea surface temperature during the COARE intensive observing period (IOP). For the three time legs observed during the IOP, the retrieved surface fluxes compare reasonably well with those from the IMET buoy, RV Moana Wave, and RV Wecoma. The characteristics of surface heat and momentum fluxes are very different between the southern and northern warm pool. In the southern warm pool, the net surface heat flux is dominated by solar radiation which is, in turn, modulated by the two Madden-Julian oscillations. The surface winds are generally weak, leading to a shallow ocean mixed layer. The solar radiation penetrating through the bottom of the mixed layer is significant, and the change in the sea surface temperature during the IOP does not follow the net surface heat flux. In the northern warm pool, the northeasterly trade wind is strong and undergoes strong seasonal variation. The variation of the net surface heat flux is dominated by evaporation. The two westerly wind bursts associated with the Madden-Julian oscillations seem to have little effect on the net surface heat flux. The ocean mixed layer is deep, and the solar radiation penetrating through the bottom of the mixed layer is small. As opposed to the southern warm pool, the trend of the sea surface temperature in the northern warm pool during the IOP is in agreement with the variation of the net heat flux at the surface.

Chou, Shu-Hsien↗

NASA NTRS2006

Annual Cycle of Cloud Forcing of Surface Radiation Budget

The climate of the Earth is determined by its balance of radiation. The incoming and outgoing radiation fluxes are strongly modulated by clouds, which are not well understood. The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (Barkstrom and Smith, 1986) provided data from which the effects of clouds on radiation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) could be computed (Ramanathan, 1987). At TOA, clouds increase the reflected solar radiation, tending to cool the planet, and decrease the OLR, causing the planet to retain its heat (Ramanathan et al., 1989; Harrison et al., 1990). The effects of clouds on radiation fluxes are denoted cloud forcing. These shortwave and longwave forcings counter each other to various degrees, so that in the tropics the result is a near balance. Over mid and polar latitude oceans, cloud forcing at TOA results in large net loss of radiation. Here, there are large areas of stratus clouds and cloud systems associated with storms. These systems are sensitive to surface temperatures and vary strongly with the annual cycle. During winter, anticyclones form over the continents and move to the oceans during summer. This movement of major cloud systems causes large changes of surface radiation, which in turn drives the surface temperature and sensible and latent heat released to the atmosphere.

Wilber, Anne C.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Observational and modeling studies of heat, moisture, precipitation and global-scale circulation patterns

This research grant was a revised version of an original proposal. The period of the grant was for three years with a six-month no-cost extension; thus, it was from 20 July 1990 to 19 January 1994. The objectives of the grant were to identify periods and locations of active convection centers, primarily over the Southern Hemisphere tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans; determine reasons for any periodic behavior found in the first objective; identify cases where subtropical jets over the South Pacific persisted for several days and examine the influences of tropical versus extra-tropical mechanisms in maintaining them; obtain estimates of precipitation by Q(sub 1) and Q(sub 2) budgets, including the importance of terms in each of the respective budgets, and compare these estimates to those obtained by other methods; and diagnose the distributions of moisture and precipitable water over the North Atlantic Ocean using routine analyses and satellite microwave data. To accomplish these objectives, we used grant funds to purchase several data sets, including the Global Precipitation Climate Project (GPCP) observations of station precipitation, ECMWF WCRP/TOGA archive two analyses for January 1985 - December 1990, ECMWF WMO analyses for January 1980 - December 1987, and OLR data for July 1974 - December 1991. We already had some SSM/I data and GLA analyses from a previous grant. In addition, to improve our computing power, we also used grant funds to purchase an IBM PS/2 with accessories, a NEC laser jet printer, and a microcomputer system for word processing. This report is organized as follows. Our research team is listed first. Section two contains a summary of our significant accomplishments; however, a detailed discussion of research results is not included since this information can be found in the accompanying reprints and preprints. Section three offers some concluding remarks, and a complete bibliographic summary is given in Section four.

Vincent, Dayton G.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Response of the mesoscale atmosphere to diabatic heating

A study was initiated to determine the influence of convective latent heat release/diabatic heating on the production of kinetic energy during AVE/SESAME I. The primary focus has been on the relative importance of thermally forced modification of the wind field through thickness and height gradient changes versus inertial-advective effects via the diabatic component of vertical motion. Preliminary results have shown that because of the strong vertical shear over the convective region, ageostrophic response is primarily caused by the latter process. The diagnostic parameterization of convective heating has been extended for use in conjunction with satellite precipitation estimates in data-poor oceanic regions. An initial application was made to a mesoscale convective system embedded in the South Pacific convergence zone. Comparison to the heating field diagnosed as a residual in the thermodynamic equation using the ECMWF III-b analyses showed that the methodology will be useful in explaining the observed heating fields and determining the relative contribution of moist processes to the total diabatic heating. Research activities are now concentrated in the following areas: (1) Determining the sensitivity of vertical heating profiles to partitioning of gridscale versus convective precipitation; (2) assessing the possible effects of incorrect analyzed gridscale vertical motions on residuals in the heat budgets computed with the ECMWF III-b data sets.

Robertson, F. R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Diagnosing Changes In Earth's Top-Of-Atmosphere Radiation Budget Since 2000

Earth’s radiation budget (ERB) is a key indicator of the climate system as it describes the delicate balance between how much of the sun’s energy reaching Earth is absorbed and how much thermal infrared radiation is emitted back to space. It is now well established that there is a positive net imbalance in ERB of 0.5-1 Wm-2. This imbalance, referred to as Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI), is shaped by natural and anthropogenic climate forcings and the climate system’s response to the forcing.When averaged over a long period, a positive EEI leads to an increase in surface temperature, sea levelrise, ocean heat content, melting of snow and sea-ice, and an acceleration of the hydrological cycle.EEI is also influenced by internal climate variability at interannual (e.g., El Niño/Southern Oscillation(ENSO)) and longer timescales (e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)). Here we use CERES data toshow that since 2000, EEI has been increasing at a rate of 0.04+-0.03 Wm-2 per yr, corresponding to 0.8 Wm-1 over the 20-year CERES record. To understand the underlying causes for this increase, we analyze the CERES data in the context of internal climate variability indices and regional pattern changes. We also perform a partial radiative perturbation analysis that decomposes the TOA SW and LW radiation variations in terms of contributions by clouds, aerosols, surface albedo, temperature,water vapor and other gases (e.g., ozone, carbon dioxide, methane, etc.).

Norman G Loeb↗

NASA NTRS2004

NASA GEOS-3/TRMM Re-analysis: Capturing Observed Tropical Rainfall Variability in Global Analysis for Climate Research

Understanding climate variability over a wide range of space-time scales requires a comprehensive description of the earth system. Global analyses produced by a fixed assimilation system (i.e., re-analyses) - as their quality continues to improve - have the potential of providing a vital tool for meeting this challenge. But at the present time, the usefulness of re-analyses is limited by uncertainties in such basic fields as clouds, precipitation, and evaporation - especially in the tropics, where observations are relatively sparse. Analyses of the tropics have long been shown to be sensitive to. the treatment of cloud precipitation processes, which remains a major source of uncertainty in current models. Yet, for many climate studies it is crucial that analyses can accurately reproduce the observed rainfall intensity and variability since a small error of 1 mm/d in surface rain translates into an error of approx. 30 W/sq m in energy (latent heat) flux. Currently, discrepancies between the observed and analyzed monthly-mean rain rates averaged to 100 km x 100 km resolution can exceed 4 mm/d (or 120 W/sq m ), compared to uncertainties in surface radiative fluxes of approx. 10-20 W/sq m . Improving precipitation in analyses would reduce a major source of uncertainty in the global energy budget. Uncertainties in tropical precipitation have also been a major impediment in understanding how the tropics interact with other regions, including the remote response to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability on interannual time scales, the influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and monsoons on intraseasonal time scales. A global analysis that can replicate the observed precipitation variability together with physically consistent estimates of other atmospheric variables provides the key to breaking this roadblock. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of satellite-based microwave rainfall measurements in improving global analyses and has recently produced a multi-year, 1 x 1 TRMM re-analysis , which assimilates 6-hourly TMI and SSM/I surface rain rates over tropical oceans using a ID variational continuous assimilation (VCA) procedure in the GEOS-3 global data assimilation system. The analysis period extends from 1 November 1997 through 3 1 December 2002. The goal is to produce a multi-year global analysis that is dynamically consistent with available tropical precipitation observations for the community to assess its utility in climate applications and identify areas for further improvements. A distinct feature of the GEOS-3RRMh4 re-analysis is that its precipitation analysis is not derived from a short-term forecast (as done in most operational systems) but is given by a time- continuous model integration constrained by precipitation observations within a 6-h analysis window, while the wind, temperature, and pressure fields are allowed to directly respond to the improved precipitation and associated latent heating structures within the same analysis window. In this talk, I will assess the impact VCA precipitation assimilation on analyses of climate signals ranging from a few weeks to interannual time scales and compare results against other operational and reanalysis products.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Satellite Radiation Products for Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry: Needs, State-Of-The-Art, Gaps, Development Priorities, and Opportunities

Knowing the spatial and temporal distribution of the underwater light field, i.e., the spectral and angular structure of the radiant intensity at any point in the water column, is essential to understanding the biogeochemical processes that control the composition and evolution of aquatic ecosystems and their impact on climate and reaction to climate change. At present, only a few properties are reliably retrieved from space, either directly or via water-leaving radiance. Existing satellite products are limited to planar photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) and ultraviolet (UV) irradiance above the surface and diffuse attenuation coefficient. Examples of operational products are provided, and their advantages and drawbacks are examined. The usefulness and convenience of these products notwithstanding, there is a need, as expressed by the user community, for other products, i.e., sub-surface planar and scalar fluxes, average cosine, spectral fluxes (UV to visible), diurnal fluxes, absorbed fraction of PAR by live algae (APAR), surface albedo, vertical attenuation, and heating rate, and for associating uncertainties to any product on a pixel-by-pixel basis. Methodologies to obtain the new products are qualitatively discussed in view of most recent scientific knowledge and current and future satellite missions, and specific algorithms are presented for some new products, namely sub-surface fluxes and average cosine. A strategy and roadmap (short, medium, and long term) for usage and development priorities is provided, taking into account needs and readiness level. Combining observations from satellites overpassing at different times and geostationary satellites should be pursued to improve the quality of daily-integrated radiation fields, and products should be generated without gaps to provide boundary conditions for general circulation and biogeochemical models. Examples of new products, i.e., daily scalar PAR below the surface, daily average cosine for PAR, and sub-surface spectral scalar fluxes are presented. A procedure to estimate algorithm uncertainties in the total uncertainty budget for above-surface daily PAR, based on radiative simulations for expected situations, is described. In the future, space-borne lidars with ocean profiling capability offer the best hope for improving our knowledge of sub-surface fields. To maximize temporal coverage, space agencies should consider placing ocean-color instruments in L1 orbit, where the sunlit part of the Earth can be frequently observed.

Frouin, Robert↗

NASA NTRS1994

Modeling tropical Pacific sea surface temperature with satellite-derived solar radiative forcing

Two independent datasets for the solar radiation at the surface derived from satellites are compared. The data derived from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) is for the net solar radiation at the surface whereas the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data is for the downward flux only and was corrected with a space- and time-varying albedo. The ISCCP net flux is at all times higher than the ERBE flux. The difference can be divided into an offset that decreases with latitude and another component that correlates with high tropical cloud cover. With this latter exception the two datasets provide spatial patterns of solar flux that are very similar. A tropical Pacific Ocean model is forced with these two datasets and observed climatological winds. The upward heat flux is parameterized taking into account separately the longwave radiative, latent, and sensible heat fluxes. Best fit values for the uncertain parameters are found using an optimization procedure that seeks to minimize the difference between model and observed SST by varying the parameters within a reasonable range of uncertainty. The SST field the model produces with the best fit parameters is the best the model can do. If the differences between the model and data are larger than can be accounted for by remaining uncertainties in the heat flux parameterization and forcing data then the ocean model must be held to be at fault. Using this method of analysis, a fundamental model fault is identified. Inadequate treatment of mixed layer/entrainment processes in upwelling regions of the eastern tropical Pacific leads to a large and seasonally varying error in the model SST. Elsewhere the model SST is insufficiently different from observed to be able to identify model errors.

Seager, Richard↗

NASA NTRS1992

The modulation of the low-latitude radiation budget by cloud and surface forcing on interannual time scales

Regionally confined interannual perturbations in the tropical radiation budget associated with east-west circulations are examined along with the forcing mechanisms of these perturbations in relation to surface and cloudiness variability. A zonal harmonic analysis of emitted longwave radiation emphasizes that these variations are largely controlled at the planetary wave scale. The overall effect leads to an approximately 50 deg/yr propagation phase speed that is considerably slower than the oceanic Kelvin wave capable of driving east-west longwave (LW) anomalies through SST feedback. Examination of the time-dependent radiative energetics over the tropics reveals that the aforementioned anomaly LW propagation is mainly due to cloud forcing associated with east-west circulation changes. Diabatic heating associated with coupled ocean-atmosphere feedback appears to be larger responsible for the LW anomaly propagation.

Sohn, Byung-Ju↗