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At least 163 records · Page 9

The Precise Orbit and the Challenge of Long Term Stability

The computation of a precise orbit reference is a fundamental component of the altimetric measurement. Since the dawn of the modern altimeter age, orbit accuracy has been determined by the quality of the GPS, SLR, and DORIS tracking systems, the fidelity of the measurement and force models, and the choice of parameterization for the orbit solutions, and whether a dynamic or a reduced-dynamic strategy is used to calculate the orbits. At the start of the TOPEX mission, the inaccuracies in the modeling of static gravity, dynamic ocean tides, and the nonconservative forces dominated the orbit error budget. Much of the error due to dynamic mismodeling can be compensated by reduced-dynamic tracking techniques depending on the measurement system strength. In the last decade, the launch of the GRACE mission has eliminated the static gravity field as a concern, and the background force models and the terrestrial reference frame have been systematically refined. GPS systems have realized many improvements, including better modeling of the forces on the GPS spacecraft, large increases in the ground tracking network, and improved modeling of the GPS measurements. DORIS systems have achieved improvements through the use of new antennae, more stable monumentation, and of satellite receivers that can track multiple beacons, and as well as through improved modeling of the nonconservative forces. Many of these improvements have been applied in the new reprocessed time series of orbits produced for the ERS satellites, Envisat, TOPEX/Poseidon and the Jason satellites, and as well as for the most recent Cryosat-2 and HY2A. We now face the challenge of maintaining a stable orbit reference for these altimetric satellites. Changes in the time-variable gravity field of the Earth and how these are modelled have been shown to affect the orbit evolution, and the calibration of the altimetric data with tide gauges. The accuracy of the reference frame realizations, and their projection into the future remains a source of error. Other sources of omission error include the geocenter for which no consensus model is as of yet applied. Although progress has been made in nonconservative force modeling through the use of detailed satellite-specific models, radiation pressure modeling, and atmospheric density modeling remain a potential source of orbit error. The longer term influence of variations in the solar and terrestrial radiation fields over annual and solar cycles remains principally untested. Also the long term variation in optical and thermal properties of the space vehicle surfaces would contribute to biases in the orbital frame if ignored. We review the status of altimetric precision orbit determination as exemplified by the recent computations undertaken by the different analysis centers for ERS, Envisat, TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason, Cryosat2 and HY2A, and we provide a perspective on the challenges for future missions such as the Jason-3, SENTINEL-3 and SWOT.

Lemoine, Frank G.↗

Lifetime predictions for the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) and San Marco spacecraft

Lifetime prediction techniques developed by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD) are described. These techniques were developed to predict the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) spacecraft orbit, which is decaying due to atmospheric drag, with reentry predicted to occur before the end of 1989. Lifetime predictions were also performed for the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF), which was deployed on the 1984 SMM repair mission and is scheduled for retrieval on another Space Transportation System (STS) mission later this year. Concepts used in the lifetime predictions were tested on the San Marco spacecraft, which reentered the Earth's atmosphere on December 6, 1988. Ephemerides predicting the orbit evolution of the San Marco spacecraft until reentry were generated over the final 90 days of the mission when the altitude was less than 380 kilometers. The errors in the predicted ephemerides are due to errors in the prediction of atmospheric density variations over the lifetime of the satellite. To model the time dependence of the atmospheric densities, predictions of the solar flux at the 10.7-centimeter wavelength were used in conjunction with Harris-Priester (HP) atmospheric density tables. Orbital state vectors, together with the spacecraft mass and area, are used as input to the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS). Propagations proceed in monthly segments, with the nominal atmospheric drag model scaled for each month according to the predicted monthly average value of F10.7. Calibration propagations are performed over a period of known orbital decay to obtain the effective ballistic coefficient. Progagations using plus or minus 2 sigma solar flux predictions are also generated to estimate the despersion in expected reentry dates. Definitive orbits are compared with these predictions as time expases. As updated vectors are received, these are also propagated to reentryto continually update the lifetime predictions.

Smith, E. A.↗

Mixing and Transport in the Solar Nebula

Boss & Vanhala (2000, 2001) prepared reviews of triggered collapse and injection models, using Prudence Foster's finite differences code at very high spatial resolution (440 x 1440 cells) to demonstrate the convergence of the R-T fingers in triggered injection models. A two dimensional hydrodynamical calculation with unprecedentedly high spatial resolution (960 x 2880 zones, or almost 3 million grid points) demonstrated that it suitable shock front can both trigger the collapse of an otherwise stable presolar cloud, and inject shock front particles into the collapsing cloud through the formation of what become Rayleigh-Taylor fingers of compressed fluid layers falling into the gravitational potential well of the growing protostar. These calculations suggest that heterogeneity derived from these R-T fingers will persist down to the scale of their injection onto the surface of the solar nebula. Haghighipour developed a numerical code capable of calculating the orbital evolution of dust grains of varied sizes in a gaseous nebula, subject to Epstein and Stokes drag as well as the self-gravity of the disk. In collaboration with the PI and George W. Wetherill, Haghighipour has been involved in development of a new idea on the possibility of rapid formation of ice giant planets via the disk instability mechanism. Haghighipour studied the stability of a five-body system consisting of the Sun and four protoplanets by numerically integrating their equations of motions. Using Levison and Duncan s SWIFT integrator, Haghighipour showed that, depending on the orbital parameters of the bodies, such a system can be stable for 0.1-10 Myr. Time periods of 1 Myr or more are long enough to be consistent with the time scale proposed for the formation of giant planets by the disk instability mechanism and the photoevaporation of the gaseous envelopes of the outermost protoplanets by a nearby OB star, resulting in the formation of ice giant planets. The PI has used his three dimensional models of marginally gravitationally unstable disks to study the preservation of isotopic heterogeneity in evolving protoplanetary disks. Such heterogeneity might arise from the infall onto the disk s surface of solids processed in the X-wind region of the disk, or derived from stellar nucleosynthesis and injected by R-T fingers. The technique used consists of solving a color equation, identical to the gas continuity equation, which follows the time evolution in three space dimensions of an arbitrarily placed initial color field, i.e., a dye inserted the disk. The models show that significant concentrations of color could persist for time periods of about a thousand years or more, even in the most dynamically active region of such a disk. Such a time period might be long enough for solids to coagulate and grow to significant sizes while retaining the isotopic signature of their birth region in the nebula.

Boss, Alan P.↗

Origin of Mars's Moons By Disruptive Partial Capture of an Asteroid

The origin of Mars’s small moons, Phobos and Deimos, remains unknown. They are typically thought either to be captured asteroids or to have accreted from a debris disk produced by a giant impact. Here, we present an alternative scenario wherein fragments of a tidally disrupted asteroid are captured and evolve into a collisional proto-satellite disk. We simulate the initial disruption and the fragments’ subsequent orbital evolution. We find that tens of percent of an unbound asteroid’s mass can be captured and survive beyond collisional timescales, across a broad range of periapsis distances, speeds, masses, spins, and orientations in the Sun–Mars frame. Furthermore, more than one percent of the asteroid’s mass could evolve to circularise in the moons’ accretion region. This implies a lower mass requirement for the parent body than that for a giant impact, which could increase the likelihood of this route to forming a proto-satellite disk that, unlike direct capture, could also naturally explain the moons’ orbits. These three formation scenarios each imply different properties of Mars’s moons to be tested by upcoming spacecraft missions.

Impact phenomena↗

Probabilistic inference of the structure and orbit of Milky Way satellites with semi-analytic modelling

Semi-analytic modelling furnishes an efficient avenue for characterizing dark matter haloes associated with satellites of Milky Way-like systems, as it easily accounts for uncertainties arising from halo-to-halo variance, the orbital disruption of satellites, baryonic feedback, and the stellar-to-halo mass (SMHM) relation. We use the SatGen semi-analytic satellite generator, which incorporates both empirical models of the galaxy–halo connection as well as analytic prescriptions for the orbital evolution of these satellites after accretion onto a host to create large samples of Milky Way-like systems and their satellites. By selecting satellites in the sample that match observed properties of a particular dwarf galaxy, we can infer arbitrary properties of the satellite galaxy within the cold dark matter paradigm. For the Milky Way’s classical dwarfs, we provide inferred values (with associated uncertainties) for the maximum circular velocity v max and the radius r max at which it occurs, varying over two choices of baryonic feedback model and two prescriptions for the SMHM relation. While simple empirical scaling relations can recover the median inferred value for v max and r max , this approach provides realistic correlated uncertainties and aids interpretability. We also demonstrate how the internal properties of a satellite’s dark matter profile correlate with its orbit, and we show that it is difficult to reproduce observations of the Fornax dwarf without strong baryonic feedback. Furthermore, the technique developed in this work is flexible in its application of observational data and can leverage arbitrary information about the satellite galaxies to make inferences about their dark matter haloes and population statistics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Kuiper Belt Dust Grains as a Source of Interplanetary Dust Particles

The recent discovery of the so-called Kuiper belt objects has prompted the idea that these objects produce dust grains that may contribute significantly to the interplanetary dust population. In this paper, the orbital evolution of dust grains, of diameters 1 to 9 microns, that originate in the region of the Kuiper belt is studied by means of direct numerical integration. Gravitational forces of the Sun and planets, solar radiation pressure, as well as Poynting-Robertson drag and solar wind drag are included. The interactions between charged dust grains and solar magnetic field are not considered in the model. Because of the effects of drag forces, small dust grains will spiral toward the Sun once they are released from their large parent bodies. This motion leads dust grains to pass by planets as well as encounter numerous mean motion resonances associated with planets. Our results show that about 80% of the Kuiper belt grains are ejected from the Solar System by the giant planets, while the remaining 20% of the grains evolve all the way to the Sun. Surprisingly, the latter dust grains have small orbital eccentricities and inclinations when they cross the orbit of the Earth. This makes them behave more like asteroidal than cometary-type dust particles. This also enhances their chances of being captured by the Earth and makes them a possible source of the collected interplanetary dust particles; in particular, they represent a possible source that brings primitive/organic materials from the outer Solar System to the Earth. When collisions with interstellar dust grains are considered, however, Kuiper belt dust grains around 9 microns appear likely to be collisionally shattered before they can evolve toward the inner part of the Solar System. The collision destruction can be applied to Kuiper belt grains up to about 50 microns. Therefore, Kuiper belt dust grains within this range may not be a significant part of the interplanetary dust complex in the inner Solar System.

Liou, Jer-Chyi↗

Spatial Distribution of Volcanic Hotspots and Paterae on Io: Implications for Tidal Heating Models and Magmatic Pathways

Io, the innermost of Jupiter's Galilean satellites, is the most volcanically active body in the Solar. System. Io's global mean heat flow is approximately 2 W/square m, which is approximately 20 times larger than on Earth. High surface temperatures concentrate within "hotspots" and, to date, 172 Ionian hotspots have been identified by spacecraft and Earth-based telescopes. The Laplace resonance between Io, Europa, and Ganymede maintains these satellites in noncircular orbits and causes displacement of their tidal bulges as the overhead position of Jupiter changes for each moon. Gravitational interactions between Jupiter and Io dominate the orbital evolution of the Laplacian system and generate enormous heat within to as tidal energy is dissipated. If this energy were transferred out of Io at the same rate as it is generated, then the associated surface heat flux would be 2.24 +/- 0.45 W/square m. This estimate is in good agreement with observed global heat flow, but to better constrain tidal dissipation mechanisms and infer how thermal energy is transferred to Io's surface, it is critical to closely examine the spatial distribution of volcanic features. End-member tidal dissipation models either consider that heating occurs completely in the mantle, or completely in the asthenosphere. Mixed models typically favor one-third mantle and two-thirds asthenosphere heating. Recent models also consider the effects of mantle-asthenosphere boundary permeability and asthenospheric instabilities. Deep-mantle heating models predict maximum surface heat flux near the poles, whereas asthenosphere heating models predict maxima near the equator-particularly in the Sub-Jovian and Anti-Jovian hemispheres, with smaller maxima occurring at orbit tangent longitudes. Previous studies have examined the global distribution of Ionian hotspots and patera (i.e., irregular or complex craters with scalloped edges that are generally interpreted to be volcanic calderas), but in this study, we combine a new geospatial analysis technique with an improved hotspot and paterae database .

Hamilton, C. W.↗

The distribution of Martian ground ice at other epochs

The past orbital evolution of Mars is examined in relation to changes in ice stability as well as the condensation, sublimation, and diffusion of atmospheric water in an exchange with the regolith. The Martian obliquity has undergone significant oscillations in its recent past. During periods of high obliquity, the solar energy would have been distributed such that the equatorial and midlatitude regions would have been colder that at present and the polar regions would have been warmer. Warmer polar regions would result in the sublimation of more polar cap water into the atmosphere and thus higher atmospheric water abundances. This combination of effects would have resulted in ground ice being stable globally. During periods of low obliquity the opposite would have occurred. Modeling results of the regolith thermal behavior and the molecular diffusion of water vapor within the regolith and in exchange with the atmosphere have shown significant quantities of ground ice can form at all latitudes within the top 50 cm to 1 m of the regolith during periods of high obliquity. The amount of ice that forms can be as much as the regolith pores can hold. During low obliquity most or all of this ice sublimes and diffuses away. Below this depth a longer-term stability is observed at some latitudes where ice steadily increases in concentration regardless of orbital oscillations that occur.

Mellon, M. T.↗

MEGASIM: Lifetimes and Resonances of Earth Trojan Asteroids—The Death of Primordial ETAs?

Abstract We present an analysis of lifetimes and resonances of Earth Trojan Asteroids (ETAs) in the MEGASIM data set. Trojan asteroids co-orbit the Sun with a planet, but remain bound to the Lagrange points, L4 (60° leading the planet) or L5 (60° trailing). In the circular three-body approximation, the stability of a Trojan asteroid depends on the ratio of the host planet mass and the central mass. For the inner planets, the range of stability becomes increasingly small, so perturbations from the planets have made primordial Trojans rare. To date, there have been just two ETAs (2010 TK 7 and 2020 XL 5 ), several Mars Trojans, and a Venus Trojan discovered. The estimated lifetimes of the known inner system Trojans are shorter than a million years, suggesting they are interlopers rather than members of a stable and long-lasting population. With the largest ETA n -body simulation to date, we are able to track their survival across a wide initialized parameter space. We find that the remaining fraction of ETAs over time is well fit with a stretched exponential function that, when extrapolated beyond our simulation run time, predicts zero ETAs by 2.33 Gyr. We also show correlations between ETA ejections and the periods of the Milankovitch cycles. Though Earth’s orbital dynamics dominate the instabilities of ETAs, we provide evidence that ETA ejections are linked to resonances found in the variation of the orbital elements of many if not all of the planets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Magnetically Arrested Circumbinary Accretion Flows

Abstract Binary systems with comparable masses and a surrounding accretion disk can accrete gas through spiral accretion streams penetrating the central cavity formed by tidal interactions. Using three-dimensional Newtonian magnetohydrodynamics simulations, we investigate the possibility of a magnetically arrested accretion flow through the cavity. Rather than solely continuously feeding the binary through spiral accretion streams, the accretion is regulated by the strong magnetic field inside the cavity. Transport of mass and angular momentum onto the binary then proceeds largely periodically in magnetic flux eruption episodes. The ejected flux tubes carry angular momentum outward and away from the binary, inject hot plasma into the disk, and can launch flares. This likely intermittent scenario could have potential implications for the emission signatures of supermassive black hole binaries and shed light onto the role magnetic fields play in the binary’s orbital evolution.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Mission design implications of an inclined elliptical geosynchronous orbit /International Ultraviolet Explorer/

In order to maximize the weight capability, an inclined elliptical geosynchronous orbit rather than the initially conceived circular one was selected for the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE), a joint NASA/ESA effort to study the ultraviolet spectra of stars, galaxies and nebulae. The design of intermediate and mission orbits satisfying the numerous mission requirements and constraints is discussed. The other areas of mission analysis included in the paper are launch window analysis, and orbit evolution and stationkeeping analysis. A significant result of the study is the manner in which statistical data, generated by a Monte Carlo simulation, were incorporated into the pre-flight mission analysis.

Dial, O. L.↗

Elementary derivation of the perturbation equations of celestial mechanics

The equations of celestial mechanics that govern the temporal rates of change of orbital elements are completely derived using elementary dynamics and proceeding only from Newton's equation and its solution. Two orbital equations and the four most meaningful orbital elements - semimajor axis, eccentricity, inclination, and longitude of pericenter - are written in terms of the orbital energy (E) and angular momentum (H) per unit mass. The six resulting equations are differentiated with respect to time to see the effect on the orbital elements of small changes in E and H. The usual perturbation equations in terms of disturbing-force components are then derived by computing the manner in which perturbing forces change E and H. The results are applied in a qualitative discussion of the orbital evolution of particles in nonspherical gravitational fields, through atmospheres, and under the action of tides.

Burns, J. A.↗