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At least 163 records · Page 9

Characteristics of an Introduced Walleye Population with Implications for Suppression

Abstract The management of introduced fishes, including Walleye Sander vitreus, whether for control or enhancement, requires understanding of population dynamics at the invasion front. Walleye recently established in the Pend Oreille basin, Idaho, threaten the existing salmonid-based fish community and associated recreational fishery. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to describe population growth and associated life history characteristics. Walleye were sampled in October of 2011, 2014, and 2017 using a standardized gill netting survey protocol to describe trends in relative abundance and evaluate population dynamics. Relative abundance increased exponentially from 1.4 to 4.3 fish/net over the 6-year monitoring period. This population was characterized by fast somatic growth, robust body condition, and early age at maturity at or near the biological maxima for Walleye. Among the survey years, mean length at age 2 varied for female (359–441 mm) and male (358–426 mm) Walleye and relative weight varied from 91 to 98. The sampled Walleye matured at 1 to 4 years of age, and recruitment became more consistent as abundance increased. These density-dependent metrics suggest that the Walleye population is still at low density relative to carrying capacity. The information that was gained from this study was used to better understand potential risks and guide management decisions related to experimental population suppression that is now underway. Suppression under these conditions must overcome the recruitment capabilities of the population. We conclude that natural mortality is likely regulated by density-dependent processes. Therefore, at current (low) density, fishing mortality may be entirely additive and compensation is unlikely to further complicate management.

Ryan, Robert G.↗

Population assignment of migratory Westslope Cutthroat Trout (WCT) in the Clark Fork–Pend Oreille River basin

Abstract Objective The Clark Fork–Pend Oreille River basin of northeastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle historically supported a robust metapopulation of the Westslope Cutthroat Trout (WCT) Oncorhynchus lewisi, a western native salmonid of high cultural and economic value. The construction of impassible hydroelectric dams and smaller instream barriers has prevented the return of migratory WCT to spawning tributaries, leading to the fragmentation of this metapopulation over the past 100 years. One such impassible barrier is Albeni Falls Dam (AFD) near Newport, Washington, which was completed without fish passage capabilities in 1955. We sought to examine large-scale genetic patterns in the study area and determine the most likely spawning tributary of origin for migratory WCT captured below AFD. Methods We created a genetic baseline representative of populations within the Clark Fork–Pend Oreille River basin from upstream and downstream of the dam using 191 biallelic single-nucleotide polymorphism genetic markers. Our data set included 124 collections, which allowed for an examination of population structure and hatchery influence across the study area and provided a robust tool for population assignment. Population assignment tests were conducted using the program RUBIAS. Result Population assignment tests were successful for all pure WCT of unknown origin despite potential influence from hatchery lineages across the study area. Of 83 migratory WCT captured below AFD, approximately 80% were assigned to tributaries upstream of AFD with a posterior assignment probability of at least 90%. Only one fish was assigned to a tributary downstream of AFD. Conclusion Our results indicate that AFD disrupts the natural metapopulation dynamics of WCT populations in the basin. Passage for WCT at this barrier would reestablish metapopulation connectivity within the basin by allowing migratory individuals to make genetic contributions to populations upstream of the dam.

Wells, Craig D. (ORCID:0000000258513250)↗

A Rapid Population Assessment Method for Wild Pigs Using Baited Cameras at 3 Study Sites

ABSTRACT Reliable and efficient population estimates are a critical need for effective management of invasive wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ). We evaluated the use of 10‐day camera grids for rapid population assessment (RPA) of wild pigs at 3 study sites that varied in vegetation communities and wild pig densities. Study areas included Buck Island Ranch, Florida; Tejon Ranch, California; and the Savannah River Site, South Carolina, USA, during 2016–2018. Rapid population assessments grids were composed of baited camera traps spaced approximately 500 or 750 m apart. Two RPA grids were deployed per study site and each grid was deployed twice (4–6 months apart) to assess changes in response to season or population control efforts. We assessed the ability of RPA grids to track population trends, how camera number influenced estimate precision, and how relative abundance indices related to density estimates. We detected changes in occupancy probability, detection probability, and N‐mixture estimates following removal operations and between seasons, but the ability of RPA grids to track population trends was dependent on the statistical method used and number of cameras traps. Increasing the number of cameras traps used in RPA grids increased precision, and these results can be used in determining survey design and estimate choice. We found that estimates of occupancy probability, detection probability, and N‐mixture estimates were positively correlated with spatially explicit capture–recapture density estimates. Thus, these less labor‐intensive estimates from RPA grids showed potential to index the relative abundance of wild pigs in some systems. Our evaluation of RPAs indicates that using study‐specific combinations of statistical method and number of cameras can provide a useful tool for monitoring wild pig presence, tracking population trends, and evaluating the effectiveness of management actions. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.

Schlichting, Peter E.↗

Comment on “Characterizing the population of pulsars in the Galactic bulge with the Fermi large area telescope” [arXiv:1705.00009v1]

Here, the $\textit{Fermi}$-LAT Collaboration recently presented a new catalog of gamma-ray sources located within the $40^{\circ} \times 40^{\circ}$ region around the Galactic Center~(Ajello et al. 2017) -- the Second Fermi Inner Galaxy (2FIG) catalog. Utilizing this catalog, they analyzed models for the spatial distribution and luminosity function of sources with a pulsar-like gamma-ray spectrum. Ajello et al. 2017 v1 also claimed to detect, in addition to a disk-like population of pulsar-like sources, an approximately 7$\sigma$ preference for an additional centrally concentrated population of pulsar-like sources, which they referred to as a "Galactic Bulge" population. Such a population would be of great interest, as it would support a pulsar interpretation of the gamma-ray excess that has long been observed in this region. In an effort to further explore the implications of this new source catalog, we attempted to reproduce the results presented by the $\textit{Fermi}$-LAT Collaboration, but failed to do so. Mimicking as closely as possible the analysis techniques undertaken in Ajello et al. 2017, we instead find that our likelihood analysis favors a very different spatial distribution and luminosity function for these sources. Most notably, our results do not exhibit a strong preference for a "Galactic Bulge" population of pulsars. Furthermore, we find that masking the regions immediately surrounding each of the 2FIG pulsar candidates does $\textit{not}$ significantly impact the spectrum or intensity of the Galactic Center gamma-ray excess. Although these results refute the claim of strong evidence for a centrally concentrated pulsar population presented in Ajello et al. 2017, they neither rule out nor provide support for the possibility that the Galactic Center excess is generated by a population of low-luminosity and currently largely unobserved pulsars.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Evidence for color dichotomy in the primordial Neptunian Trojan population

In the current model of early Solar System evolution, the stable members of the Jovian and Neptunian Trojan populations were captured into resonance from the leftover reservoir of planetesimals during the outward migration of the giant planets. As a result, both Jovian and Neptunian Trojans share a common origin with the primordial disk population, whose other surviving members constitute today's trans-Neptunian object (TNO) populations. The cold classical TNOs are ultra-red, while the dynamically excited "hot" population of TNOs contains a mixture of ultra-red and blue objects. In contrast, Jovian and Neptunian Trojans are observed to be blue. While the absence of ultra-red Jovian Trojans can be readily explained by the sublimation of volatile material from their surfaces due to the high flux of solar radiation at 5AU, the lack of ultra-red Neptunian Trojans presents both a puzzle and a challenge to formation models. In this work we report the discovery by the Dark Energy Survey (DES) of two new dynamically stable L4 Neptunian Trojans,2013 VX30 and 2014 UU240, both with inclinations i >30 degrees, making them the highest-inclination known stable Neptunian Trojans. We have measured the colors of these and three other dynamically stable Neptunian Trojans previously observed by DES, and find that 2013 VX30 is ultra-red, the first such Neptunian Trojan in its class. As such, 2013 VX30 may be a "missing link" between the Trojan and TNO populations. Using a simulation of the DES TNO detection efficiency, we find that there are 162 +/- 73 Trojans with Hr < 10 at the L4 Lagrange point of Neptune. Moreover, the blue-to-red Neptunian Trojan population ratio should be higher than 17:1. Based on this result, we discuss the possible origin of the ultra-red Neptunian Trojan population and its implications for the formation history of Neptunian Trojans.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The differing magnitude distributions of the two Jupiter Trojan color populations

The Jupiter Trojans are a significant population of minor bodies in the middle solar system that have garnered substantial interest in recent years. Several spectroscopic studies of these objects have revealed notable bimodalities with respect to near-infrared spectra, infrared albedo, and color, which suggest the existence of two distinct groups among the Trojan population. In this paper, we analyze the magnitude distributions of these two groups, which we refer to as the red and less red color populations. By compiling spectral and photometric data from several previous works, we show that the observed bimodalities are self-consistent and categorize 221 of the 842 Trojans with absolute magnitudes in the range H<12.3 into the two color populations. We demonstrate that the magnitude distributions of the two color populations are distinct to a high confidence level (>95%) and fit them individually to a broken power law, with special attention given to evaluating and correcting for incompleteness in the Trojan catalog as well as incompleteness in our categorization of objects. A comparison of the best-fit curves shows that the faint-end power-law slopes are markedly different for the two color populations, which indicates that the red and less red Trojans likely formed in different locations. We propose a few hypotheses for the origin and evolution of the Trojan population based on the analyzed data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

RX J0848.6+4453: The evolution of galaxy sizes and stellar populations in A z = 1.27 cluster

RX J0848.6+4453 (Lynx W) at redshift 1.27 is part of the Lynx Supercluster of galaxies. We present an analysis of the stellar populations and star formation history for a sample of 24 members of the cluster. Our study is based on deep optical spectroscopy obtained with Gemini North combined with imaging data from Hubble Space Telescope. Focusing on the 13 bulge-dominated galaxies for which we can determine central velocity dispersions, we find that these show a smaller evolution with redshift of sizes and velocity dispersions than reported for field galaxies and galaxies in poorer clusters. Our data show that the galaxies in RX J0848.6+4453 populate the fundamental plane (FP) similar to that found for lower-redshift clusters. The zero-point offset for the FP is smaller than expected if the cluster's galaxies are to evolve passively through the location of the FP we established in our previous work for z = 0.8-0.9 cluster galaxies and then to the present-day FP. The FP zero point for RX J0848.6+4453 corresponds to an epoch of last star formation at z{sub form}=1.95{sub −0.15}{sup +0.22}. Further, we find that the spectra of the galaxies in RX J0848.6+4453 are dominated by young stellar populations at all galaxy masses and in many cases show emission indicating low-level ongoing star formation. The average age of the young stellar populations as estimated from the strength of the high-order Balmer line Hζ is consistent with a major star formation episode 1-2 Gyr prior, which in turn agrees with z {sub form} = 1.95. These galaxies dominated by young stellar populations are distributed throughout the cluster. We speculate that low-level star formation has not yet been fully quenched in the center of this cluster, possibly because the cluster is significantly poorer than other clusters previously studied at similar redshifts, which appear to have very little ongoing star formation in their centers. The mixture in RX J0848.6+4453 of passive galaxies with young stellar populations and massive galaxies still experiencing some star formation appears similar to the galaxy populations recently identified in two z ≈ 2 clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Clonality, local population structure, and gametophyte sex ratios in cryptic species of the Sphagnum magellanicum complex

Sphagnum (peatmoss) comprises a moss (Bryophyta) clade with approximately 300-500 species. The genus has unparalleled ecological importance because Sphagnum-dominated peatlands store almost a third of the terrestrial carbon pool and peatmosses engineer the formation and microtopography of peatlands. Genomic resources for Sphagnum are being actively expanded, but many aspects of their biology are still poorly known. Among these are the degree to which Sphagnum species reproduce asexually, and the relative frequencies of male and female gametophytes in these haploid-dominant plants. Here, we assess clonality and gametophyte sex ratios and test hypotheses about the local-scale distribution of clones and sexes in four North American species of the S. magellanicum complex. These four species are difficult to distinguish morphologically and are very closely related. We also assess microbial communities associated with Sphagnum host plant clones and sexes at two sites. 405 samples of the four species, representing 57 populations, were subjected to RADseq. Analyses of population structure and clonality based on the molecular data utilized both phylogenetic and phenetic approaches. Multi-locus genotypes (genets) were identified using the RADseq data. Sexes of sampled ramets were determined using a molecular approach that utilized coverage of loci on the sex chromosomes after the method was validated using a sample of plants that expressed sex phenotypically. Sex ratios were estimated for each species, and populations within species. Differences in fitness between genets was estimated as the numbers of ramets each genet comprised. Degree of clonality (numbers of genets/numbers of ramets [samples]) within species, among sites, and between gametophyte sexes were estimated. Sex ratios were estimated for each species, and populations within species. Sphagnum-associated microbial communities were assessed at two sites in relation to Sphagnum clonality and sex. All four species appear to engage in a mixture of sexual and asexual (clonal) reproduction. A single ramet represents most genets but 2-8 ramets were detected for some genets. Only one genet is represented by ramets in multiple populations; all other genets are restricted to a single population. Within populations ramets of individual genets are spatially clustered, suggesting limited dispersal even within peatlands. Sex ratios are male-biased in S. diabolicum but female-biased in the other three species, although significantly so only in S. divinum. Neither species nor males/females differ in levels of clonal propagation. At St. Regis Lake (NY) and Franklin Bog (VT), microbial community composition is strongly differentiated between the sites, but differences between species, genets, and sexes were not detected. Within S. divinum, however, female gametophytes harbored 2-3 times the number oi of microbial taxa as males. These four Sphagnum species all exhibit a similar reproductive patterns that result from a mixture of sexual and asexual reproduction. The spatial patterns of clonally replicated ramets of genets suggest that these species fall between the so-called phalanx patterns where genets abut one another but do not extensively mix, because of limited ramet fragmentation, and the guerrilla patterns where extensive genet fragmentation and dispersal results in greater mixing of different genets. Although sex ratios in bryophytes are most often female-biased, both male and female biases occur in this complex of closely related species. The association of far greater microbial diversity for female gametophytes in S. divinum, which has a female-biased sex ratio, suggests additional research to determine if levels of microbial diversity are consistently correlated with differing patterns of sex ratio biases.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

State-level suicide mortality insights: a comparative study of VHA veterans and the whole US population

Background: Suicide is a leading cause of death in the US Comparative State-level spatial analysis between Veterans Health Administration (VHA veterans) and the whole US population can reveal differences in conditions for targeted interventions and intricate geographical patterns. Methods: The study population contains 2018 and 2019 suicide deaths of VHA veterans and the whole US population. They were used to calculate state-level rates. States were classified by whether their VHA veteran and whole US population rates were above or below respective mean rates. Local Moran’s I was leveraged to examine spatial autocorrelation. Results: State-level suicide mortality rates and disparities among states were generally higher for VHA veterans (2018: 37.3 ± 7.2; 2019: 46.8 ± 8.3) than for the whole US population (2018: 16.6 ± 4.3; 2019: 16.4 ± 4.4). For both populations, there were statistically significant clusters with high suicide rates. Over one-fourth of states demonstrated inverse relationships, with rates above mean for one group but below for other. VHA veterans are at higher risk with over one-third of states had greater than average veteran suicide risk ratio. Conclusions: VHA veterans are at higher risk than the whole population across all states. Mortality disparities among states and clusters of states with high and low rates suggest targeted interventions and cooperative health strategies may help address these differences.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Intra- and inter-subtype HIV diversity between 1994 and 2018 in southern Uganda: a longitudinal population-based study

There is limited data on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) evolutionary trends in African populations. We evaluated changes in HIV viral diversity and genetic divergence in southern Uganda over a 24-year period spanning the introduction and scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs using HIV sequence and survey data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study, an open longitudinal population-based HIV surveillance cohort. Gag (p24) and env (gp41) HIV data were generated from people living with HIV (PLHIV) in 31 inland semi-urban trading and agrarian communities (1994–2018) and four hyperendemic Lake Victoria fishing communities (2011–2018) under continuous surveillance. HIV subtype was assigned using the Recombination Identification Program with phylogenetic confirmation. Inter-subtype diversity was evaluated using the Shannon diversity index, and intra-subtype diversity with the nucleotide diversity and pairwise TN93 genetic distance. Genetic divergence was measured using root-to-tip distance and pairwise TN93 genetic distance analyses. Demographic history of HIV was inferred using a coalescent-based Bayesian Skygrid model. Evolutionary dynamics were assessed among demographic and behavioral population subgroups, including by migration status. 9931 HIV sequences were available from 4999 PLHIV, including 3060 and 1939 persons residing in inland and fishing communities, respectively. In inland communities, subtype A1 viruses proportionately increased from 14.3% in 1995 to 25.9% in 2017 (P < .001), while those of subtype D declined from 73.2% in 1995 to 28.2% in 2017 (P < .001). The proportion of viruses classified as recombinants significantly increased by nearly four-fold from 12.2% in 1995 to 44.8% in 2017. Inter-subtype HIV diversity has generally increased. While intra-subtype p24 genetic diversity and divergence leveled off after 2014, intra-subtype gp41 diversity, effective population size, and divergence increased through 2017. Intra- and inter-subtype viral diversity increased across all demographic and behavioral population subgroups, including among individuals with no recent migration history or extra-community sexual partners. This study provides insights into population-level HIV evolutionary dynamics following the scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs. Continued molecular surveillance may provide a better understanding of the dynamics driving population HIV evolution and yield important insights for epidemic control and vaccine development.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

At Risk Population Estimates for Belarus, Poland and Slovakia with Machine Learning

High-resolution gridded population modeling is crucial for various applications, including disaster response planning, infectious disease spread modeling, climate change impact estimation, policy development, and more. Multiple gridded population datasets have been developed, each tailored to meet specific objectives. Among them, LandScan Global dataset is designed to represent ambient and unwarned population distributions. However, this dataset relies on a statistical approach that requires manual adjustments, making it time consuming and labour intensive. Existing machine learning (ML) methods often train and test at different spatial resolutions, potentially leading to inflated results, and they rely on Census population totals for disaggregation. To address these limitations, in this study we developed population estimates using ML models trained and tested at a consistent 30 arc-second resolution (≈1 square kilometer), specifically using Random Forest (RF) and XGBoost. These models were trained on 2020 datum to predict for 2021 for three countries: Belarus, Poland, and Slovakia. Our findings show that both RF (MAE varies from 5.75 to 13.25) and XGBoost (MAE varies from 8.15 to 23.44) model performance is close to LandScan Global estimates. Furthermore, neither of the models performed the best across all grid cells: the RF model was more effective in areas with lower populations, while XGBoost excelled in more densely populated regions. The proposed approach can be used for countries where the Census data is not available.

Lebakula, Viswadeep [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000152935914↗

The sensitivity of breeding songbirds to changes in seasonal timing is linked to population change but cannot be directly attributed to the effects of trophic asynchrony on productivity

Abstract A consequence of climate change has been an advance in the timing of seasonal events. Differences in the rate of advance between trophic levels may result in predators becoming mismatched with prey availability, reducing fitness and potentially driving population declines. Such “trophic asynchrony” is hypothesized to have contributed to recent population declines of long‐distance migratory birds in particular. Using spatially extensive survey data from 1983 to 2010 to estimate variation in spring phenology from 280 plant and insect species and the egg‐laying phenology of 21 British songbird species, we explored the effects of trophic asynchrony on avian population trends and potential underlying demographic mechanisms. Species which advanced their laying dates least over the last three decades, and were therefore at greatest risk of asynchrony, exhibited the most negative population trends. We expressed asynchrony as the annual variation in bird phenology relative to spring phenology, and related asynchrony to annual avian productivity. In warmer springs, birds were more asynchronous, but productivity was only marginally reduced; long‐distance migrants, short‐distance migrants and resident bird species all exhibited effects of similar magnitude. Long‐term population, but not productivity, declines were greatest among those species whose annual productivity was most greatly reduced by asynchrony. This suggests that population change is not mechanistically driven by the negative effects of asynchrony on productivity. The apparent effects of asynchrony on population trends are therefore either more likely to be strongly expressed via other demographic pathways, or alternatively, are a surrogate for species' sensitivity to other environmental pressures which are the ultimate cause of decline.

Franks, Samantha E.↗

Measurements of the populations of metastable and resonance levels in the plasma of an RF capacitive discharge in argon

The behavior of the populations of two metastable and two lower resonance levels of argon atoms in the plasma of an RF capacitive discharge was studied. The populations were measured by two methods: the method of emission self-absorption and the method based on measurements of the intensity ratios of spectral lines. It is shown that the populations of resonance levels increase with increasing power deposited in the discharge, whereas the populations of metastable levels is independent of the RF power. The distribution of the populations over energy levels is not equilibrium under these conditions. The population kinetics of argon atomic levels in the discharge plasma is simulated numerically. The distribution function of plasma electrons recovered from the measured populations of atomic levels and numerical simulations is found to be non-Maxwellian.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Modeling the Potential Effects of New Tobacco Products and Policies. A Dynamic Population Model for Multiple Product Use and Harm

Background Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products. Methods and Findings We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use for the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors. Conclusion Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health outcomes such as morbidity and disability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Shared Genomic Regions Between Derivatives of a Large Segregating Population of Maize Identified Using Bulked Segregant Analysis Sequencing and Traditional Linkage Analysis

Delayed transition from the vegetative stage to the reproductive stage of development and increased plant height have been shown to increase biomass productivity in grasses. The goal of this project was to detect quantitative trait loci using extremes from a large synthetic population, as well as a related recombinant inbred line mapping population for these two traits. Ten thousand individuals from a B73 × Mo17 noninbred population intermated for 14 generations (IBM Syn14) were grown at a density of approximately 16,500 plants ha -1 . Flowering time and plant height were measured within this population. DNA was pooled from the 46 most extreme individuals from each distributional tail for each of the traits measured and used in bulk segregant analysis (BSA) sequencing. Allelic divergence at each of the ~1.1 million SNP loci was estimated as the difference in allele frequencies between the selected extremes. Additionally, 224 intermated B73 × Mo17 recombinant inbred lines were concomitantly grown at a similar density adjacent to the large synthetic population and were assessed for flowering time and plant height. Using the BSA sequencing method, 14 and 13 genomic regions were identified for flowering time and plant height, respectively. Linkage mapping with the RIL population identified eight and three regions for flowering time and plant height, respectively. Of the regions identified, three colocalized between the two populations for flowering time and two colocalized for plant height. This study demonstrates the utility of using BSA sequencing for the dissection of complex quantitative traits important for production of lignocellulosic ethanol.

Genetics & Heredity↗

Post-Release Survivorship in a New Population of Blanding's Turtles Established Using Headstarted and Directly Released Turtles

Blanding’s Turtles are facing a variety of anthropogenic threats that decrease population viability. We initiated a project to establish a new population of Blanding’s Turtles on a National Wildlife Refuge in Massachusetts using hatchlings obtained from a nearby robust donor population. We released 440 head-started individuals and 401 directly-released hatchlings between 2007–2013 and conducted multiple years of post-release monitoring via aquatic trapping to estimate survival. Between 2014–2021 we released an additional 824 head-started and 433 directly-released individuals and conducted one year of aquatic trapping in 2021 to estimate population size. First year post-release survival of head-started turtles was six times that of directly-released hatchlings (0.72 vs. 0.12, respectively), but annual survival of both groups was 0.78–0.90 in subsequent years. Only 19% of turtles released at <60 mm carapace length (CL) were subsequently recaptured compared to 60% of those released at ≥60 mm CL, supporting 60 mm CL as a target minimum release size. The mean population estimates using two different study designs were 164 and 202, with 91 individuals encountered. Now that turtles released early in the project are approaching reproductive maturity, we recommend resampling and expanding trapping efforts to include more wetlands to assess long-term survival, abundance, and distribution of Blanding’s Turtles in this newly established population. Furthermore, our results, combined with other evaluations of head-starting across the species’ range, add credence to the use of head-starting as a population recovery tool for Blanding’s Turtles.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

LandCast Mosaic: Reconstructing Global Population Distributions, 1975-2025

LandCast Mosaic (LCM) provides a global, high-resolution gridded population dataset spanning 1975–2025, representing annual, scenario-consistent estimates of daytime, nighttime, and ambient population distributions. LCM builds on the 2025 LandScan Mosaic (LSM) population data by backcasting to earlier years using historical changes in built-surface area derived from the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) and authoritative population counts from international datasets. The workflow scales 2025 building-informed gridded population estimates according to observed changes in built surface, applies linear interpolation for intermediate years, and normalizes estimates to match administrative- and country-level totals. The resulting dataset offers consistent, globally gridded population estimates over fifty years, suitable for temporal analyses of population dynamics, disaster risk modeling, and urban planning applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Blue crab larval dispersal highlights population connectivity and implications for fishery management

In the Western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico (GOM), the blue crab Callinectes sapidus fishery is managed at regional scale and its assessment does not consider the population structure of the species. To understand connectivity of the blue crab population, we simulated larval dispersal using a biophysical model driven by high-resolution ocean currents and including early life-history traits of the species. Simulations were conducted during 2015 and 2016, and larvae were released from locations along Florida’s GOM and Atlantic coasts. A high degree of local larval retention was observed in Florida’s GOM waters, mainly during summer when weak southeastern winds tend to yield a shoreward net flow. Results demonstrated clear evidence of connectivity between the Gulf coast of Florida population and those of Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana, suggesting that the blue crab populations in the GOM are intermixed and the hypothesized boundary (in Florida) of two stocks needs further consideration. Outputs of the model also indicated connectivity between the blue crab populations of Florida’s Gulf coast and the South-Atlantic Bight (SAB). Larval trajectories show inter-annual variability driven by the interaction of winds, Loop Current (LC) intrusions in the northern GOM, LC eddies and their cyclonic counterparts, and the Mississippi River plume. The latter provides a conduit for larval transport from the GOM to the SAB. These findings provide evidence of the physical oceanographic processes that sustain the homogenous genetic population structure for blue crabs between SAB and GOM populations, highlighting the need for collaborative management in US waters.

Criales, Maria M.↗