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At least 163 records · Page 9

TLife-LSTM: Forecasting Future COVID-19 Progression with Topological Signatures of Atmospheric Conditions

Understanding the impact of atmospheric conditions on SARS-CoV2 is critical to model COVID-19 dynamics and sheds a light on the future spread around the world. Furthermore, geographic distri- butions of expected clinical severity of COVID-19 may be closely linked to prior history of respiratory diseases and changes in humidity, tem- perature, and air quality. In this context, we postulate that by tracking topological features of atmospheric conditions over time, we can provide a quanti?able structural distribution of atmospheric changes that are likely to be related to COVID-19 dynamics. As such, we apply the machinery of persistence homology on time series of graphs to extract topological signatures and to follow geographical changes in relative humidity and temperature. We develop an integrative machine learning framework named Topological Lifespan LSTM (TLife-LSTM) and test its predictive capabilities on forecasting the dynamics of SARS-CoV2 cases. We validate our framework using the number of con?rmed cases and hospitalization rates recorded in the states of Washington and California in the USA. Our results demonstrate the predictive potential of TLife-LSTM in forecasting the dynamics of COVID-19 and modeling its complex spatio-temporal spread dynamics.

Gel, Yulia R.↗

Effects of moisture, residual thermal curing stresses and mechanical load on the damage development in quasi-isotropic laminates

Classical laminate theory and a finite element model were used to predict stress states prior to the first formation of damage in laminates fabricated from T/300/5208. Crack patterns characteristic of the laminate in a wet or dry condition were also predicted using a shear lag model. Development of edge damage was recorded and observed during the test by transferring an image of the damage from the edge surface on to a thin acetate sheet such that the damage imprinted could be immediately viewed on a microfiche card reader. Moisture was shown to significantly alter the interior and edge dry stress states due to swelling and a reduction of elastic properties and to reduce the transverse strength in 90 deg plies. A model was developed in order to predict changes in first ply failure laminate loads due to differences in stacking sequence together with a wet or dry environmental condition.

Kriz, R. D.↗

A Record of Nebular and Parent Body Processes of Grossite-Bearing, Fine-Grained Refractory Inclusions from Reduced CV3 Chondrites

Grossite (CaAl4O7) is predicted to condense as the third major phase, after corundum and hibonite, from a cooling gas of solar composition and likely preserves an important record of physico-chemical conditions in the early Solar System. However, this mineral is relatively rare in CAIs from most carbonaceous chondrite groups, except for CH chondrites. In particular, from CV3 chondrites where CAIs are large and abundant, only six grossitebearing CAIs have been reported and studied, and most of them were coarse-grained Type A inclusions. Here, we report the occurrence of grossite-bearing, fine-grained inclusions (FGIs) from reduced CV3 chondrites. We present preliminary results of a FIB/TEM study of one grossite-bearing FGI that provide clues to constrain its formation and alteration history in the solar nebula and on the parent body and to address the overall rarity of grossite in CAIs.

J. Han↗

Seasonal Monitoring of Melt and Accumulation Within the Deep Percolation Zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet and Comparison with Simulations of Regional Climate Modeling

Increasing melt over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) recorded over the past several years has resulted in significant changes of the percolation regime of the ice sheet. It remains unclear whether Greenland's percolation zone will act as a meltwater buffer in the near future through gradually filling all pore space or if near-surface refreezing causes the formation of impermeable layers, which provoke lateral runoff. Homogeneous ice layers within perennial firn, as well as near-surface ice layers of several meter thickness have been observed in firn cores. Because firn coring is a destructive method, deriving stratigraphic changes in firn and allocation of summer melt events is challenging. To overcome this deficit and provide continuous data for model evaluations on snow and firn density, temporal changes in liquid water content and depths of water infiltration, we installed an upward-looking radar system (upGPR) 3.4 m below the snow surface in May 2016 close to Camp Raven (66.4779 deg N, 46.2856 deg W) at 2120 m a.s.l. The radar is capable of quasi-continuously monitoring changes in snow and firn stratigraphy, which occur above the antennas. For summer 2016, we observed four major melt events, which routed liquid water into various depths beneath the surface. The last event in mid-August resulted in the deepest percolation down to about 2.3 m beneath the surface. Comparisons with simulations from the regional climate model MAR are in very good agreement in terms of seasonal changes in accumulation and timing of onset of melt. However, neither bulk density of near-surface layers nor the amounts of liquid water and percolation depths predicted by MAR correspond with upGPR data. Radar data and records of a nearby thermistor string, in contrast, matched very well for both timing and depth of temperature changes and observed water percolations. All four melt events transferred a cumulative mass of 56 kg/(sq. m) into firn beneath the summer surface of 2015. We find that continuous observations of liquid water content, percolation depths and rates for the seasonal mass fluxes are sufficiently accurate to provide valuable information for validation of model approaches and help to develop a better understanding of liquid water retention and percolation in perennial firn.

Heilig, Achim↗

Development of Solar Flare and Energetic Particle Prediction Portal (SEP 3 )

Solar activity is a primary factor determining the state of the Earth’s space environment, geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances, and radiation hazards. In the current state of knowledge, machine learning (ML) methods provide essential tools for processing data, investigating relationships among various physical properties and characteristics, uncovering hidden connections, and predicting hazardous solar events. The primary difficulty in developing and applying modern machine-learning tools in heliophysics is that the essential data are scattered among over a hundred data repositories developed by instrument teams of space missions and ground-based observatories. In addition, statistical and ML methods require long time series of homogeneous measurements. To facilitate ML-ready data preparation and access, we have developed an interactive database of solar flares integrating the most essential datasets (https://solarflare.njit.edu/). The database performs an initial data processing and is automatically updated. In addition, we are developing the Solar Energetic Particle Prediction Portal (SEP3, https://sun.njit.edu/SEP3), which hosts web applications that allow users to retrieve the database records. The Portal has a search page for browsing the events from the most widely used catalogs and a dedicated space to share the most recent achievements of the team. The interactive widget can display soft X-ray and proton flux time series from GOES satellites and the flare records. The data portal has been used to evaluate the forecasts of solar proton events and investigate machine-learning approaches to SEP prediction.

SMD↗

Models of climate cycles recorded in Martian polar layered deposits

Mars polar deposit accumulation models are used to predict the sequences of layer thicknesses. Continuous deposition and climate-modulated deposition models are compared, and two physical models of the latter type are developed in detail. In addition to examining the sensitivity of the sequence of layer thicknesses to model type and threshold, parallels with terrestrial ocean margin deposition are drawn with a view to better understanding the effects of a prolonged interval of nondeposition on stratigraphy and the modification of the central polar stratigraphy by scarp margin effects. When the threshold for deposition lies in the midrange with respect to excursions of the climate function, deposition occurs about half of the time, and there is only a slight modulation of the layer thickness. When the threshold for deposition is high, deposition occurs only a small fraction of the total time, and groups of layers form which are separated from other groups by long periods of nondeposition.

Cutts, J. A.↗

X-ray fluorescence analysis for prediction of Space Shuttle solid rocket motor performance

Analysis of uncured solid propellant by X-ray fluorescence has been conducted on mixes prepared for four development motors produced for the Space Shuttle SRM Project. X-ray readings for chlorine (ammonium perchlorate) and iron (ferric oxide) were recorded for each mix during processing of the propellant. These values were used to predict burning rates for uncured acceptance, uncured acoustic emission and cured acoustic emission strands. Predicted burning rates all fell within control limits and when compared to actual burning rates, most were within experimental error. The X-ray analysis required one-third the time of current methods and met casting schedules.

Pulsipher, H. G.↗

HAPPA: A Modular Platform for HPC Application Resilience Analysis with LLMs Embedded

High-performance computing (HPC) systems are increasingly vulnerable to soft errors, which pose significant challenges in maintaining computational accuracy and reliability. Predicting the resilience of HPC applications to these errors is crucial for robust code protection and detailed resilience analysis. In this study, we present HAppA, a modular platform designed for HPC Application Resilience Analysis. Embedding Large Language Models (LLMs), HAppA addresses understanding the context information of long code sequences typical in HPC applications. HAppA implements a novel code representation module that chunks the code into fixed-size segments and aggregates the embeddings of these segments. Three aggregation methods have been explored: MeanPooling, MaxPooling, and LSTM-based techniques. We built a DAtaset for REsilience analysis using Fault Injection (FI), named DARE. Using our DARE dataset, HAppA is trained for regression prediction tasks. Our evaluation results demonstrate the predictive accuracy of HAppA compared to other models, particularly noting that the LSTM-based aggregation method -- HAppA-LSTM -- achieves a mean squared error (MSE) of 0.078 for SDC prediction, surpassing the existing state-of-the-art PARIS model, which recorded an MSE of 0.1172. Additionally, HAppA with the KeyBERT model extracts a list of keywords representing the source code. A comprehensive importance analysis of these keywords further elucidates the code patterns contributing to the error rate. These findings highlight the effectiveness of HAppA in analyzing the resilience of HPC applications and establish a new benchmark for predictive accuracy in resilience.

Jiang, Hailong [Kent State University]↗

Predicted range expansion of Prostephanus truncatus (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae) under projected climate change scenarios

Abstract The larger grain borer (Prostephanus truncatus [Horn] [Coleoptera: Bostrichidae]) is a wood-boring insect native to Central America and adapted to stored maize and cassava. It was accidentally introduced to Tanzania and became a pest across central Africa. Unlike many grain pests, P. truncatus populations can establish and move within forests. Consequently, novel infestations can occur without human influence. The objectives of our study were to (i) develop an updated current suitability projection for P. truncatus, (ii) assess its potential future distribution under different climate change scenarios, and (iii) identify climate variables that best inform the model. We used WALLACE and MaxEnt to predict potential global distribution by incorporating bioclimatic variables and occurrence records. Future models were projected for 2050 and 2070 with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 (low change) and 8.5 (high change). Distribution was most limited by high precipitation and cold temperatures. Globally, highly suitable areas (> 75%) primarily occurred along coastal and equatorial regions with novel areas in northern South America, India, southeastern Asia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, totaling 7% under current conditions. Highly suitable areas at RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 are estimated to increase to 12% and 15%, respectively, by 2050 and increase to 19% in 2070 under RCP 8.5. Centroids of highly suitable areas show distribution centers moving more inshore and away from the equator. Notably, the result is a range expansion, not a shift. Results can be used to decrease biosecurity risks through more spatially explicit and timely surveillance programs for targeting the exclusion of this pest.

Entomology↗

The dynamic liquid squeeze film.

Experiments were conducted during which plane circular surfaces bounding a liquid squeeze film were subjected to impulsive loads. Pressure measurements within the liquid film and the boundary motion were recorded. These experimental results were compared with theoretical analyses which predict the bonding strength of dynamic squeeze films. The data show that the fluid inertia contributes significantly to the value of the bonding strength. It was also found that, for high loading rates, the liquid squeeze film can resist tensile loads. When in tension, liquid cavitation was observed. A photographic study was conducted which indicated that the inception of cavitation is directly related to the squeeze film liquid viscosity and inversely related to the film thickness.

Riepe, R.↗

Evaluation of ERIM optically processed SEASAT SAR data

The results of three studies on the radiometric and geometric properties of optically processed SEASAT SAR imagery are summarized. The accuracy with which the image scale can be predicted based upon a knowledge of the SAR platform and recording system parameters and the processor characteristics was evaluated. The considerations involved in making radiometric measurements from image films, the use of point targets for calibrating the effects of Doppler spectrum shifts on the radiometric calibration of the SAR image data over extended swath lengths was evaluated

Shuchman, R. A.↗

Modelling changes in the dielectric and scattering properties of young snow-covered sea ice at GHz frequencies

Observations of the physical properties of the snow cover and underlying young fast ice in Resolute Passage, Canada, were made during the winter of 1982. Detailed measurements of snow density and ice and snow temperatures, salinities, and brine volumes were made over a period of 46 d, beginning when the ice was 0.4 m thick and about 9 d old. The recorded values are used in a theoretical mixture model to predict the dielectric properties of the snow cover over the microwave frequency range. The results of this analysis are then used to investigate the effects of the snow properties on the radar backscatter signatures of young sea ice. The results show that backscatter is a function of the incidence angle and can change significantly over short periods of time during the early evolutionary phase of ice and snow-cover development. This has important consequences for the identification of young ice forms from SAR or SLAR images.

Drinkwater, Mark R.↗

Impact cratering and the surface age of Venus: The Pre-Magellan controversy

The average surface age of a planet is a major indicator of the level of its geologic activity and thus of the dynamics of its interior. Radar images obtained by Venera 15/16 from the northern quarter of the Venus (lat 30 to 90 degs) reveal about 150 features that resemble impact craters, and they were so interpreted by Soviet investigators B. A. Ivanov, A. T. Basilevsky, and their colleagues. These features range in diameter from about 10 to 145 km. Their areal density is remarkably similar to the density of impact structures found on the American and European continental shields. The basic difference between the Soviet and American estimates of the average surface age of Venus's northern quarter is due to which crater-production rate is used for the Venusian environment. Cratering rates based on the lunar and terrestrial cratering records, as well as statistical calculations based on observed and predicted Venus-crossing asteroids and comets, have been used in both the Soviet and American calculations. The single largest uncertainty in estimating the actual cratering rates near Venus involves the shielding effect of the atmosphere.

Schaber, Gerald G.↗

Comparison of continuous and discontinuous collisional bumpers: Dimensionally scaled impact experiments into single wire meshes

An experimental inquiry into the utility of discontinuous bumpers was conducted to investigate the collisional outcomes of impacts into single grid-like targets and to compare the results with more traditional bumper designs that employ continuous sheet stock. We performed some 35 experiments using 6.3 and 3.2 mm diameter spherical soda-lime glass projectiles at low velocities (less than 2.5 km/s) and 13 at velocities between 5 and 6 km/s, using 3.2 mm spheres only. The thrust of the experiments related to the characterization of collisional fragments as a function of target thickness or areal shield mass of both bumper designs. The primary product of these experiments was witness plates that record the resulting population of collisional fragments. Substantial interpretive and predictive insights into bumper performance were obtained. All qualitative observations (on the witness plates) and detailed measurements of displaced masses seem simply and consistently related only to bumper mass available for interaction with the impactor. This renders the grid bumper into the superior shield design. These findings present evidence that discontinuous bumpers are a viable concept for collisional shields, possibly superior to continuous geometries.

Hoerz, Friedrich↗

Continuous wave dye-laser technique for simultaneous, spatially resolved measurements of temperature, pressure, and velocity of NO in an underexpanded free jet

Gas dynamic quantities within an underexpanded nitrogen free jet, seeded with 0.5 percent NO, were measured nonintrusively by using an intracavity-doubled, rapid-tuning, CW ring dye laser. The UV beam passed obliquely through the jet axis, and its frequency repetitively scanned across adjacent rotational lines in the NO gamma band near 225 nm at a rate of 4 kHz. Spatially resolved excitation scans were obtained by monitoring the induced broadband fluoresence. Modeling the Doppler-shifted excitation scans with Voigt profiles permitted simultaneous determinations of NO velocity, rotational temperature, and pressure. Zero Doppler shift was referenced to an absorption trace obtained across a static cell and recorded concurrently with the excitation scan. Typically, the measured and predicted axial distributions agreed within 10 percent. At high Mach numbers there was evidence of rotational freezing of NO.

Di Rosa, Michael D.↗

Verification of a two-dimensional infiltration model for the resin transfer molding process

A two-dimensional finite element model for the infiltration of a dry textile preform by an injected resin was verified. The model, which is based on the finite element/control volume technique, determines the total infiltration time and the pressure increase at the mold inlet associated with the RTM process. Important input data for the model are the compaction and permeability behavior of the preform along with the kinetic and rheological behavior of the resin. The compaction behavior for several textile preforms was determined by experimental methods. A power law regression model was used to relate fiber volume fraction to the applied compaction pressure. Results showed a large increase in fiber volume fraction with the initial application of pressure. However, as the maximum fiber volume fraction was approached, the amount of compaction pressure required to decrease the porosity of the preform rapidly increased. Similarly, a power law regression model was used to relate permeability to the fiber volume fraction of the preform. Two methods were used to measure the permeability of the textile preform. The first, known as the steady state method, measures the permeability of a saturated preform under constant flow rate conditions. The second, denoted the advancing front method, determines the permeability of a dry preform to an infiltrating fluid. Water, corn oil, and an epoxy resin, Epon 815, were used to determine the effect of fluid type and viscosity on the steady state permeability behavior of the preform. Permeability values measured with the different fluids showed that fluid viscosity had no influence on the permeability behavior of 162 E-glass and TTI IM7/8HS preforms. Permeabilities measured from steady state and advancing front experiments for the warp direction of 162 E-glass fabric were similar. This behavior was noticed for tests conducted with corn oil and Epon 815. Comparable behavior was observed for the warp direction of the TTI IM7/8HS preform and corn oil. Mold filling and flow visualization experiments were performed to verify the analytical computer model. Frequency dependent electromagnetic sensors were used to monitor the resin flow front as a function of time. For the flow visualization tests, a video camera and high resolution tape recorder were used to record the experimental flow fronts. Comparisons between experimental and model predicted flow fronts agreed well for all tests. For the mold filling tests conducted at constant flow rate injection, the model was able to accurately predict the pressure increase at the mold inlet during the infiltration process. A kinetics model developed to predict the degree of cure as a function of time for the injected resin accurately calculated the increase in the degree of cure during the subsequent cure cycle.

Hammond, Vincent H.↗

Torsional Eye Movements Evoked by Unilateral Labyrinthine Galvanic Polarizations in the Squirrel Monkey

Electrical stimulation of vestibular-nerve afferents innervating the semicircular canals has been used to identify the extraocular muscles receiving activation or inhibition by individual ampullary nerves. This technique was originally developed by Szentagothai (1950) and led to the description of three neuron reflex arcs that connect each semicircular canal through an interneuron traversing in the region of the medial longitudinal fasciculus to one ipsilateral and one contralateral eye muscle. Selective ampullary nerve stimulation was subsequently used by Cohen and colleagues (Cohen and Suzuki, 1963; Cohen et al., 1964; Suzuki et al., 1964; Cohen et al., 1966) to study movements of the eyes and activation of individual extraocular muscles in response to stimulation of combinations of ampullary nerves. This work led to a description of the now familiar relationships between activation of a semicircular canal ampullary nerves and the anticipated movement in each eye. Disconjugacy of eye movements induced by individual vertical canal stimulation and dependence of the pulling direction of vertical recti and oblique muscles on eye position were also defined in these experiments. Subsequent studies have defined the mechanisms by which externally applied galvanic currents result in a change in vestibular-nerve afferent discharge. The currents appear to act at the spike trigger site. Perilymphatic cathodal currents depolarize the trigger site and lead to excitation whereas anodal currents hyperpolarize and result in inhibition. Afferents innervating all five vestibular endorgans appear to be affected equally by the currents (Goldberg et al., 1984). Irregularly discharging afferents are about 5-10 times more sensitive than regularly discharging ones because of the steeper slope of the former's faster postspike recovery of excitability in encoder sensitivity (Smith and Goldberg, 1986). Response adaptation similar to that noted during acceleration steps is apparent for longer periods of current administration. This adaptation is manifested as a perstimulus return toward resting discharge and poststimulus after-response in the opposite direction (Goldberg et al., 1984; Minor and Goldberg, l991). Cathodal currents (with respect to the perilymphatic space of the vestibule) are excitatory whereas anodal currents are inhibitory. Horizontal eye movements evoked by unilateral galvanic polarizations administered through chronically implanted labyrinthine stimulating electrodes have been studied in alert squirrel monkeys (Minor and Goldberg, 1991). We sought to extend this analysis by recording three-dimensional eye movements during galvanic stimulation. As predicted based upon roughly equal stimulation of ampullary nerves innervating the vertical canals, a substantial torsional component to the nystagmus is noted. The trajectory of torsional slow phases and nystagmus profile after the polarization provide insight into the central mechanisms that influence these responses.

Minor, Lloyd B.↗

The Earth System Model

The Earth System Model is the natural evolution of current climate models and will be the ultimate embodiment of our geophysical understanding of the planet. These models are constructed from components - atmosphere, ocean, ice, land, chemistry, solid earth, etc. models and merged together through a coupling program which is responsible for the exchange of data from the components. Climate models and future earth system models will have standardized modules, and these standards are now being developed by the ESMF project funded by NASA. The Earth System Model will have a variety of uses beyond climate prediction. The model can be used to build climate data records making it the core of an assimilation system, and it can be used in OSSE experiments to evaluate. The computing and storage requirements for the ESM appear to be daunting. However, the Japanese ES theoretical computing capability is already within 20% of the minimum requirements needed for some 2010 climate model applications. Thus it seems very possible that a focused effort to build an Earth System Model will achieve succcss.

Schoeberl, Mark↗