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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Moving beyond the Aerosol Climatology of WRF-Solar: A Case Study over the North China Plain

Numerical weather prediction (NWP), when accessible, is a crucial input to short-term solar power forecasting. WRF-Solar, the first NWP model specifically designed for solar energy applications, has shown promising predictive capability. Nevertheless, few attempts have been made to investigate its performance under high aerosol loading, which attenuates incoming radiation significantly. The North China Plain is a polluted region due to industrialization, which constitutes a proper testbed for such investigation. Here, in this paper, aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE) on three surface shortwave radiation components (i.e., global, beam, and diffuse) during five heavy pollution episodes is studied within the WRF-Solar framework. Results show that WRF-Solar overestimates instantaneous beam radiation up to 795.3 W m -2 when the aerosol DRE is not considered. Although such overestimation can be partially offset by an underestimation of the diffuse radiation of about 194.5 W m -2 , the overestimation of the global radiation still reaches 160.2 W m -2 . This undesirable bias can be reduced when WRF-Solar is powered by Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) aerosol forecasts, which then translates to accuracy improvements in photovoltaic (PV) power forecasts. This work also compares the forecast performance of the CAMS-powered WRF-Solar with that of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model. Under high aerosol loading conditions, the irradiance forecast accuracy generated by WRF-Solar increased by 53.2% and the PV power forecast accuracy increased by 6.8%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ice storage model-predictive control in an office building with PV: scenario, error and sensitivity analysis

Thermal energy storage (TES) can enable more building-sited renewable electricity generation and lower utility bill costs for buildings owners and occupants, especially when there are high demand and variable time-of-use (TOU) charges. A model predictive control (MPC) strategy can offer additional savings over a schedule-based control with added complexity and reliance on forecasts. Here, this study examines savings for medium office buildings with chiller plants in three locations with building-installed solar photovoltaics (PV) to understand the impact of MPC. Control setpoints are fixed by a schedule-based control or optimized by nonlinear MPC. These control setpoints are actuated within EnergyPlus building models to simulate the utility cost of the chiller plant. NLP solutions can be unstable or unrealistic, but our results show that by regularizing the NLP, the solutions can be reasonably followed by the building model. MPC models make simplifications that lead to errors once the controller is participating in and changing the operation of the building. These errors average 9 % across the cases, showing that the most important parts of the system are represented. The no-thermal load costs are computed to show that the optimization can in some cases achieve both the minimum TOU and minimum monthly demand costs by demand management while reducing TOU energy costs by energy arbitrage. The MPC saves 35–66 % in the annual chiller plant operating costs, which is an additional savings above the schedule by 1–33 %. PV and TES are complementary and mostly independent, but a load with PV often results in better performance for the schedule. Our case study and sensitivity analysis show the importance of modeling and optimization for complex rates, but also the circumstances wherein a simpler strategy achieves the same performance with less potential for error.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model Predictive Control of Dual-Mode Energy-Stored Quasi-Z-Source Photovoltaic System

The energy-stored quasi-Z-source inverter (ES-qZSI) has attracted much attention for photovoltaic (PV) power generations, due to its capability to stabilize the PV power fluctuations and other advantages of Z-source inverter. Traditional ES-qZSI suffers from poor operation at night or cloudy days when PV power is extremely low. In order to overcome that, this paper proposes a model predictive control (MPC) strategy for an improved dual-mode ES-qZSI, which is designed to support all-weather operation of PV power generation system. The system predictive models in both day and night operating modes are derived. And the control strategy based on MPC is disclosed to ensure the high-performance operation of the system. Simulation is carried out on PV power fluctuation in daytime and switching between the two modes, to verify the effectiveness of proposed control strategy.

Xue, Yaosuo↗
DOE OSTI2023

Considering the Variability of Soiling in Long-Term PV Performance Forecasting

This study presents the development of a methodology for evaluating the variability associated with soiling on long-term photovoltaic (PV) forecasting. Independent engineering firms typically build forecasts for large PV plants through the use of the PVsyst software, where monthly soiling losses are one of many inputs to the P50 model. Subsequently, long-term performance distributions are constructed through a Monte Carlo analysis that includes various factors, such as satellite irradiance modeling uncertainty, uncertainty in the PVsyst model, and long-term irradiance variability. Often the PVsyst model uncertainty is increased to account for sites with significant soiling concerns but no systematic method has been presented in the literature to specifically include soiling variability within long-term performance uncertainty. In this work soiling information from 16 sites in the U.S. Southwest are combined with 24 years of rainfall data to generate 24 years of energy production with soiling losses and then subsequently generate probability of exceedance values (e.g., P50, P90, P95…). The results show that the size of the 90% confidence interval (P5–P95) can increase from –0.7% to 10.1% when interannual soiling variability and soiling rate uncertainty is included.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Considering the Variability of Soiling in Long-Term PV Performance Forecasting: Preprint

This study presents the development of a methodology for evaluating the variability associated with soiling on long-term PV forecasting. Independent engineering firms typically build P50 forecasts for large PV plants through the use of the PVsyst software, where monthly soiling losses are one of many inputs to the P50 model. Subsequently, long-term performance distributions, or Pvalues, are constructed through a Monte Carlo analysis that includes various factors such as: satellite irradiance modeling uncertainty, uncertainty in the PVsyst model, and long-term irradiance variability. Often the PVsyst model uncertainty is increased to account for sites with significant soiling concerns but no systematic method has been presented in the literature to specifically include soiling variability within Pvalues. In this work soiling information from 16 sites in the U.S. Southwest are combined with 20 years of rainfall data to generate 20 years of energy production with soiling losses and then subsequently generate Pvalues. The results show that the spread of Pvalues (P1-P99) can increase from 0-13% when interannual soiling variability is included.

interannual variability↗
DOE OSTI2022

PV Hosting Capacity Estimation: Experiences with Scalable Framework; Preprint

Hosting capacity is an indication of the amount of photovoltaics (PV) can be hosted in a distribution system. This paper presents a framework for estimating distributed PV hosting capacity at scale. We first analyze the key challenges of performing relevant large scale simulation including computational and modeling challenges. Then, we develop two python-based software tools in order to conduct repeatable distribution analyses: Distribution Integration Solution Cost Options (DISCO) for configuring and analyzing simulations, and JADE for parallelizing jobs on HPC clusters. A case study of hosting capacity estimation for SMART-DS SFO 2000+ synthetic feeders is used to demonstrate the capability of the developed framework and tools. The framework and tools can help utilities assess the overall hosting capacity of their service territory, through which the overall upgrade cost can be better planned in order to integrate more PV in the future.

distributed energy resources↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Diurnal and Annual Ethylene Generation from Solar-Driven Electrochemical CO 2 Reduction Devices

Integrated solar fuels devices for CO 2 reduction (CO 2 R) are a promising technology class towards achieving net-negative carbon emissions. Designing integrated CO 2 R solar fuels devices requires careful co-design of electrochemical and photovoltaic components as well as consideration of the diurnal and seasonal effects of solar irradiance, temperature, and other meteorological factors expected for ‘on-sun’ deployment. Here, using a photovoltaic-electrochemical (PV-EC) platform, we developed a temperature and potential-dependent diurnal and annual model using experimental CO 2 R performance of Cu-based electrocatalysts, local meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRD), and modeled performance of commercial c-Si PVs. We simulated diurnal product outputs with and without the effects of ambient temperature to determine gaseous product temperature sensitivity. From these outputs, we observed seasonal variation in gaseous product generation, with up to two-fold increases in ethylene productivity between the Winter and Summer, analyzed the consequences of dynamic cloud coverage, and identified periods where device cooling/heating mechanisms could be implemented to maximize ethylene generation. Finally, we modeled the annual ethylene generation for a scaled 1 MW solar farm at three different locations (Beijing, CN; Sydney, AUS; Barstow, CA) to determine the consequences of local meteorological climates on PV-EC CO 2 R product output, recording a maximum ethylene output of 18.5 tonne/yr at Barstow. Overall, this model presents a critical tool for streamlining the translation of experimental solar-driven electrochemical research to real-world implementation.

Yap, Kyra M. K.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Visibility-enhanced model-free deep reinforcement learning algorithm for voltage control in realistic distribution systems using smart inverters

Increasing integration of distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) into distribution networks could result in adverse effects on grid operation. Traditional model-based control algorithms require accurate model information that is difficult to acquire and thus are challenging to implement in practice. Here, this paper proposes a surrogate model-enabled grid visibility scheme to empower deep reinforcement learning (DRL) approach for distribution network voltage regulation using PV inverters with minimal system knowledge. In contrast to existing DRL methods, this paper presents and corroborates the adverse impact of missing load information on DRL performance and, based on this finding, proposes a surrogate model methodology to impute load information utilizing observable data. Additionally, a multi-fidelity neural network is utilized to construct the DRL training environment, chosen for its efficient data utilization and enhanced robustness to data uncertainty. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm are assessed by considering DRL testing across varying degrees of observable load information and diverse training environments on a realistic power system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling and Analysis of Clean Energy and Storage Technologies (CRADA Final Report, Project 1)

The goal of this project is to provide Southern Company Services, Inc. ("Participant") with custom scripts that can be used to create an average PV energy production profile, calculate lifetime energy value, calculate capacity value, and calculate the resultant financial metrics considering those value streams. Secondly, a fuel-cell model will be added to the public version of System Advisor Model (SAM). This standalone technology will incorporate PV and battery storage, allowing the participant to model the interaction of these three technologies. By adding this capability to a public version of SAM, a broad audience will be able to consider the system performance and financial benefits of installing a fuel cell as a baseline generator with PV. Thirdly, automated dispatch algorithms will be developed and added to SAM. These algorithms will enable Southern Company to dispatch a DC-connected front-of-the-meter battery system while considering price signals and PV clipping behavior. By adding these capabilities to a public version of SAM, users will be able to consider more complex and realistic ways of dispatching a battery system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian Structural Time Series for Behind-the-Meter Photovoltaic Disaggregation

Distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation often occurs ``behind the meter": a grid operator can only observe the net load, which is the sum of the gross load and distributed PV generation. This lack of observability poses a challenge to system operation at both bulk level and distribution level. The lack of real-time or near-future disaggregated estimates of gross load and PV generation will lead to over scheduling of energy production and regulation reserves, reliability constraints violations, wear and tear of controller devices, and potentially cascading failures of a system. In this paper we propose the use of a Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) model with local solar irradiance measurements to disaggregate the summed PV generation and gross load signals at a downstream measurement site. BSTSs are a highly expressive model class that blends classic time series models with the powerful Bayesian state space estimation framework. Disaggregation is done probabilistically, which automatically quantifies the uncertainties of the estimated PV generation and gross load consumption. Depending on the data availability in real-time, it can be used to disaggragate PV and gross load at customer site, or can be used at the feeder level. In this paper, we focus on solving the problem at feeder level. We compare the performance of a BSTS model as well as a handful of state-of-the-art methods on a Pecan Street AMI dataset, using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to estimate local irradiance.

bayesian structural time series↗
DOE OSTI2022

Harmonic Modeling, Data Generation and Analysis of Power Electronics-Interfaced Residential Loads

The share of electronics-based residential load is expected to rise as devices such as variable frequency drives (VFDs), electric vehicle chargers, and inverter-based distributed energy resources (DERs), e.g., photovoltaic (PV) systems become more common. These loads may introduce significant harmonics into power networks that need to be closely studied in order to perform accurate load modeling and forecasting. However, it can be difficult to obtain harmonic-rich voltage and current data - necessary for identifying accurate load models - for residential electrical loads. Recognizing this need, we identify and model a set of electronics-based end-use loads and DERs in an electromagnetic transients program (EMTP) tool for a residence with a single- phase split-phase supply. Further, a procedure is developed to model harmonic interactions between end-use loads connected to the same non-ideal supply voltage in a residential setting. Finally, a harmonic-rich dataset produced via the proposed procedure is utilized to identify frequency coupling matrix (FCM) based load model. Numerical results demonstrate the accuracy of the model, and explore model identifiability with limited data points.

harmonics, power quality, load modeling↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying Optical Loss of High-Voltage Degradation Modes in PV Modules Using Spectral Analysis [Slides]

The direct current bias for photovoltaic (PV) modules interconnected in series-strings may include both high voltage negative ("HV-") and positive ("HV+") polarity with respect to the electrical ground. Multiple degradation modes, resulting in quantifiable optical loss, were found to occur during HV-/HV+ sequential stress, including: corrosion of the external glass surface, encapsulant delamination (at its interfaces with the glass and the PV cell), internal haze formation (resulting from a chemical interaction between the glass and the encapsulant), corrosion and migration of the gridlines, and corrosion of the silicon nitride (SixNy) antireflective coating on the cell. The effects of these separate modes were examined using monolithic (e.g., glass or PV cell) and laminated-coupon (glass/encapsulant/glass or glass/encapsulant/cell/encapsulant/backsheet) specimens. Characterizations during and after unbiased accelerated testing at 85 degrees C/85% relative humidity included: spectrophotometry, optical microscopy, electron microscopy, and ellipsometry. For some module components (i.e., the glass and the SixNy coating), the optical performance was determined through iterative analysis of empirical measurements. Concentrating on just their spectral effect, a novel model was then developed to estimate the transfer of light to the PV cell and the return of light from the PV module with simultaneous degradation mechanisms, which was compared to a mini-module previously subjected to HV-/HV+ stress. The model suggests one-third of the current loss observed for the mini-module can be attributed to the optical degradation of the packaging materials. The dominant degradation modes include encapsulant delamination and corrosion of the SixNy coating. Recommendations are given so that the optical model may be improved relative to accelerated testing and validated relative to field aging.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying optical loss of high-voltage degradation modes in photovoltaic modules using spectral analysis

The direct current bias for photovoltaic (PV) modules interconnected in series-strings may include both high voltage negative (“HV-”) and positive (“HV+”) polarity with respect to the electrical ground. Multiple degradation modes, resulting in quantifiable optical loss, were found to occur during HV-/HV+ sequential stress, including corrosion of the external glass surface, encapsulant delamination (at its interfaces with the glass and the PV cell), internal haze formation (resulting from a chemical interaction between the glass and the encapsulant), corrosion and migration of the gridlines, and corrosion of the silicon nitride (Si x N y ) antireflective coating on the cell. The effects of these separate modes were examined using monolithic (e.g., glass or PV cell) and laminated-coupon (glass/encapsulant/glass or glass/encapsulant/cell/encapsulant/backsheet) specimens. Characterizations during and after unbiased accelerated testing at 85°C/85% relative humidity included spectrophotometry, optical microscopy, electron microscopy, and ellipsometry. For some module components (i.e., the glass and the Si x N y coating), the optical performance was determined through iterative analysis of empirical measurements. Concentrating on just their spectral effect, a novel model was then developed to estimate the transfer of light to the PV cell and the return of light from the PV module with simultaneous degradation mechanisms, which was compared with a mini-module previously subjected to HV-/HV+ stress. Here the model suggests that one third of the current loss observed for the mini-module can be attributed to the optical degradation of the packaging materials. The dominant degradation modes include encapsulant delamination and corrosion of the Si x N y coating. Recommendations are given so that the optical model may be improved relative to accelerated testing and validated relative to field aging.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling diurnal and annual ethylene generation from solar-driven electrochemical CO 2 reduction devices

Integrated solar fuels devices for CO 2 reduction (CO 2 R) are a promising technology class towards reducing carbon emissions. Designing integrated CO 2 R solar fuels devices requires careful co-design of electrochemical and photovoltaic components as well as consideration of the diurnal and seasonal effects of solar irradiance, temperature, and other meteorological factors expected for ‘on-sun’ deployment. Using a photovoltaic-electrochemical (PV-EC) platform, we developed a temperature and potential-dependent diurnal and annual model using experimentally-determined CO 2 R performance of Cu-based electrocatalysts, local meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRD), and modeled performance of commercial c-Si PVs. Here we simulated gaseous diurnal product outputs with and without the effects of ambient temperature. From these outputs, we observed seasonal variation in gaseous product generation, with up to two-fold increases in ethylene productivity between the Winter and Summer, analyzed the consequences of dynamic cloud coverage, and identified periods where device cooling/heating mechanisms could be implemented to maximize ethylene generation. Finally, we modeled the annual ethylene generation for a scaled 1 MW solar farm at three different locations (Beijing, CN; Sydney, AUS; Barstow, CA) to determine the consequences of local meteorological climates on PV-EC CO 2 R product output, recording a maximum ethylene output of 18.5 tonne per year at Barstow. Overall, this model presents a critical tool for streamlining the translation of experimental solar-driven electrochemical research to real-world implementation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

DuraMAT: Building a Consortium to Accelerate the Photovoltaic Module Reliability Learning Cycle

Durable and reliable photovoltaic (PV) modules are critical to enabling an efficient transition to sustainable energy generation. The rate at which new module designs and materials are developed and deployed currently outpaces the rate at which we can identify failure mechanisms and understand degradation rates. Increasing the service life of PV modules, and our ability to predict performance over time, requires more durable materials and designs, better durability testing, more extensive material characterization, robust modeling, and methods to cross-examine historical performance data to extract meaningful results. This is a multidisciplinary challenge that requires expertise from a broad range of fields and, therefore, benefits significantly from a collaborative approach. In this Perspective, we outline the approach taken by the Durable Module Materials Consortium (DuraMAT), present a few case studies where our approach was successful, and provide an outlook on where this approach might be applied as the PV technology landscape continues to rapidly evolve. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Baseline Performance Reference for Irradiance in PV System Applications

This report proposes the definition of a new baseline performance reference (BPR). The definition goes beyond existing standards pertaining to photovoltaic (PV) reference cells and devices to define the response under all possible operating conditions in the field. Field evaluations using BPR devices will be more sensitive to performance anomalies than pyranometers because they track PV system power output more closely. At the same time, they will be able to detect a broader range of performance anomalies than traditional matched reference devices, which might have matching defects. The BPR definition also opens the door to new practices in resource assessment and yield prediction. Solar resource data can be collected or modeled and validated directly as BPR irradiance, and PV system simulations based on BPR irradiance need fewer assumptions and less processing to obtain the effective irradiance on modules. As a result, lower uncertainty in yield assessments can be expected.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Frequency Stability Enhancement in a Fully Solar Power Grid: A Case Study on the Saudi Model

Recently, renewable energy sources (RES) such as solar photovoltaic (PV) have been recognized for their significant potential. Several studies have explored the issue of frequency stability with high RES penetration. A significant observation related to this issue is the decline in the weighted short circuit ratio (WSCR), which has the potential to adversely affect system stability. This research uniquely focuses on the gradual transition of the Saudi Electricity Company (SEC) system to a fully integrated solar PV grid, offering insight and methodology that can be adapted for other power systems. While a variety of mitigation methods are available, synchronous condensers (SC) were used in this study to stabilize grid frequency, and their implementation has been shown to improve the overall performance of the system. In response to the observed decline in WSCR, a comprehensive short circuit analysis was applied across all regions in the Saudi power grid model to evaluate the reduction in short circuit power and highlight areas requiring enhancement. Finally, scenarios illustrating frequency response with a gradual increase in SCR were analyzed, with the objective of establishing a stable, fully solar PV power system that is resilient to sudden power grid disturbances.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spectral Rear Irradiance Testing and Modeling for Degradation and Performance of Solar Fields: Preprint

This work investigates how the spectrum of irradiance incident on the rear of solar modules impacts their degradation, and in case of bifacial PV their performance. We calculate the spectral irradiance incident on the rear of modules through raytrace simulations and validate with measured field data collected from a 75kW single axis-tracked bifacial test site. An equation to calculate relative degradation is shown, showing that current acceleration factors for UV damage in chambers can be off by +3% for the rear surfaces. Finally, a method for improving non-spectral simulations is proposed.

bifacial performance↗