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Rapid Evaluation Framework for the CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track

As Earth system models (ESMs) grow in complexity and in volume of output data, there is an increasing need for rapid, comprehensive evaluation of their scientific performance. The upcoming Assessment Fast Track for the Seventh Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7) will require expeditious response for model analyses designed to inform and drive integrated Earth system assessments. To meet this challenge, the Rapid Evaluation Framework (REF), a community-driven platform for benchmarking and performance assessment of ESMs, was designed and developed. The initial implementation of the REF, constructed to meet the near-term needs of the CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track, builds upon four disparate community evaluation and benchmarking tools that are coupled together using the Coordinated Model Evaluation Capabilities (CMEC) framework. The REF runs within a containerized workflow for portability and reproducibility and is aimed at generating and organizing diagnostics covering a variety of model variables. The REF leverages well documented observational datasets to provide assessments of model fidelity across a collection of diagnostics. All diagnostics were identified and selected with community involvement and consultation. Operational integration with the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) will permit automated execution of the REF for selected diagnostics as soon as model output data are published on ESGF by the originating modeling centers. The REF is designed to be portable across a range of current computational platforms to facilitate use by modeling centers for assessing the evolution of model versions or gauging the relative performance of CMIP simulations before being published on ESGF. When integrated into production simulation workflows, results from the REF provide immediate quantitative feedback that allows model developers and scientists to quickly identify model biases and performance issues. After the REF is released to the community, its subsequent development and support will be prioritized by an international consortium of scientists and engineers, enabling a broader impact across Earth science disciplines. For instance, the REF will facilitate improvements to models and will enhance confidence in model projections through process-based selection of models based on their performance with respect to observations. Production of reproducible diagnostics and community-based assessments are key features of the REF. Furthermore, providing interoperability with existing evaluation packages assures that contributions from previous community efforts will be available for use in future model intercomparison projects.

Hoffman, Forrest [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000158024134)

Towards a quantitative understanding of bonding in supersonic single particle impacts: A three-dimensional FIB-SEM exploration

Particle bonding is crucial to coating quality in cold spray, but it has been a challenge to accurately quantify bonding even in single particle impacts. This paper uses FIB-SEM to explicitly map the particle-substrate interface for Cu-on-Cu single microparticle impacts in a full 3D rendering that spans a wide range of impact velocities. This approach permits a detailed quantification of the total bonding area and all of its associated components. In addition to revealing why prior 2D characterization efforts have missed important details about impact bonding, these data quantitatively reveal the evolution of bonding from its onset at the “critical velocity” V cr (where bonding is generally poor, ∼6 %) to its peak at around 1.3‧V cr (where almost 90 % of the particle bonds). Further increase in the velocity to 1.5‧V cr and beyond finds the onset of hydrodynamic penetration and a decrease in bonding. These data then support the development of a simple analytical model based on oxide rarefication and extrusion of bare metal through gaps in the oxide layer as driving the development of bonding. As a result, the model reproduces the experiments and provides guidance on optimization of bonding as a function of material and process parameters.

Analytical methods

Topologically Protected Flatness in Chiral Moiré Heterostructures

The observation of delicate correlated phases in twisted heterostructures of graphene and transition metal dichalcogenides suggests that moiré flat bands are intrinsically resilient against certain types of disorder. Here, we investigate the robustness of moiré flat bands in the chiral limit of the Bistritzer-MacDonald model—applicable to both platforms in certain limits—and demonstrate drastic differences between the first magic angle and higher magic angles in response to chiral symmetric disorder that arise, for instance, from lattice relaxation. We understand these differences using a hidden constant of motion that permits the decomposition of the non-Abelian gauge field induced by interlayer tunnelings into two decoupled Abelian ones. At all magic angles, the resulting effective magnetic field splits into an anomalous contribution and a fluctuating part. The anomalous field maps the moiré flat bands onto a zeroth Dirac Landau level, whose flatness withstands any chiral symmetric perturbation such as nonuniform magnetic fields due to a topological index theorem—thereby underscoring a topological mechanism for band flatness. Only the first magic angle can fully harness this topological protection due to its weak fluctuating magnetic field. In higher magic angles, the amplitude of fluctuations largely exceeds the anomalous contribution, which we find results in a physically meaningless chiral operator and an extremely large sensitivity to microscopic details and an exponential collapse of the single-particle gap. Through numerical simulations, we further study various types of disorder and identify the scattering processes that are enhanced or suppressed in the chiral limit. Interestingly, we find that the topological suppression of disorder broadening persists away from the chiral limit and is further accentuated by isolating a single sublattice polarized flat band in energy. Our analysis suggests the Berry curvature hot spot at the top of the K and K ′ valence band in the transition metal dichalcogenide monolayers is essential for the stability of its moiré flat bands and their correlated states. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Crépel, Valentin (ORCID:0000000302403412)

Observation of molecular resonant double-core excitation driven by intense X-ray pulses

The ultrashort and intense pulses of X-rays produced at X-ray free electron lasers (XFELs) have enabled unique experiments on the atomic level structure and dynamics of matter, with time-resolved studies permitted in the femto- and attosecond regimes. To fully exploit them, it is paramount to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the complex nonlinear interactions that can occur at such extreme X-ray intensities. Herein, we report on the experimental observation of a resonant double-core excitation scheme in N 2 , where two 1σ core-level electrons are resonantly promoted to unoccupied 1π$^*_g$ molecular orbitals by a single few-femtosecond broad-bandwidth XFEL pulse. The production of these neutral two-site double core hole states is evidenced through their characteristic decay channels, which are observed in good agreement with high-level theoretical calculations. Such multi-core excitation schemes, benefiting from the high interaction cross sections and state- and site-selective nature of resonant X-ray interactions, should be generally accessible in XFEL irradiated molecules, and provide interesting opportunities for chemical analysis and for monitoring ultrafast dynamic processes.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS

In‐operando thermal transport characterization of moving particle bed heat exchanger

The project aimed to develop modulated photothermal radiometry (MPR) for conducting in-operando measurements of thermal transport in moving particle bed heat exchangers (MPBE) located at Sandia National Laboratory (SNL). The plan was to initially conduct lab-scale measurements on a 1-meter-long particle channel at UCSD, followed by in- operando measurements at SNL on a 20 kWth MPBE prototype built for this project, and if time permitting, potential final deployment on SNL’s 1 MWth G3P3 MPBE. The first two goals were successfully achieved but due to changes with commissioning timeline of the G3P3 MPBE, in-operando measurements on the G3P3 MPBE could not be conducted. The measurement campaigns have resulted in some promising results and the MPR tool has been handed over to trained SNL personnel for future use. MPR measurements on UCSD’s 1-meter-long particle channel showed a peculiar length dependence of the particle bed thermal conductivity and near-wall thermal resistance. The bed thermal conductivity increased, and the near-wall thermal resistance decreased, with increasing distance from the channel inlet, both eventually reaching a plateau. This was found to be due to hydrostatic pressure screening by the channel walls, known as the “Janssen effect”, and is the first experimental study on its role in granular heat transfer. A 20 kWth small-scale MPBE prototype, the first of its kind with 3 mm particle channels and 2 mm sCO2 plates, was designed and manufactured by Vacuum Process Engineering (VPE) for this project. This MPBE prototype was installed in SNL’s HEX test stand and the MPR tool was integrated into the test stand for in-operando measurements. Several modifications have been made to the MPR setup for facile installation and easy operation at SNL. Measurements with Carbo HSP40/70 particles were conducted with various particle and sCO2 temperatures and flow rates. Further, apart from regular MPBE operation, fault scenarios such as plate warping, particle stagnation, and choking were also detected and MPR showed excellent sensitivity to the detection of such conditions. Through the course of this project, MPR has evolved from a sensitive laboratory technique to a rugged industrial tool with various applications in high temperature measurements and diagnostics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Moisture Recycling through Pumping by Mesoscale Convective Systems

Abstract Moisture recycling, the contribution of local evapotranspiration (ET) to precipitation, has been studied using bulk models assuming a well-mixed atmosphere. The latter is inconsistent with a climatologically stratified atmosphere that slants across latitudes. Reconciling the two views requires an understanding of overturning associated with different weather systems. In this study, we aim to better understand moisture recycling associated with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Using a convection-permitting WRF simulation equipped with water vapor tracers (WRF-WVT), we tag moisture from terrestrial ET in the U.S. Southern Great Plains during May 2015, when more than 20 MCS events occurred and produced significant precipitation and flooding. Water budget analysis reveals that approximately 76% of terrestrial ET is advected away from the region while the remaining 24% of terrestrial ET is “pumped” upward within the region, accounting for 12% of precipitation. Moisture recycling peaks during early night hours (1800–2400 LT) due to the mixing of the daytime accumulated ET by active convection. By focusing on five “diurnally driven” MCSs with less large-scale circulation influence than other MCSs during the same period, we find an upright pumping of terrestrial ET at the MCS initiation and development stages, which diverges into two branches during the MCS mature and decaying stages. One branch in the upper level advects the ET-sourced moisture downstream, while the other branch in the mid-to-upper level contributes to the trailing precipitation upstream. Overall, our analysis depicts a pumping mechanism associated with MCSs that mixes local ET vertically, highlighting its specific contributions to enhancing convective precipitation processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Evaluation of E3SM Simulated Aerosols and Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions Across GCM and Convection‐Permitting Scales

This paper introduces an Earth system modeling testbed for predicting aerosols and aerosol‐cloud interactions (ACIs) at convection‐permitting scales. Using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2 with a four‐mode Modal Aerosol Module, we conduct simulations at 3.25 km resolution on a regionally refined mesh (RRM) across four regions with distinct aerosol and cloud regimes. Results are compared with the standard 100 km E3SM configuration and evaluated against satellite, aircraft, and ground‐based observations. We find that increasing model resolution improves heavy precipitation simulation but amplifies positive bias in light drizzle at coarse resolution. These resolution‐induced changes affect cloud and aerosol properties to varying degrees across regions. Generally, cloud cover and liquid water path (LWP) show better agreement with satellite retrievals at 3.25 km, though surface‐based comparisons suggest otherwise. Aerosol composition remains poorly represented at both resolutions. The RRM increases Aitken mode aerosol number concentrations via enhanced new particle formation. However, accumulation mode aerosols are decreased at higher resolution as aerosol removals become more efficient. This partially contributes to fewer cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and lower cloud droplet number concentrations (N d ), which produces larger model biases in some scenarios. These findings suggest that solely increasing horizontal resolution to kilometer scales is insufficient to broadly improve aerosol and cloud predictions without concurrent advancements in physical and chemical process representations. Nonetheless, the RRM moderately improves key ACI relationships such as CCN‐N d correlation, reflecting enhanced aerosol activation representation. The LWP‐N d relationship is also better captured by RRM, suggesting a better characterization of LWP adjustment.

Huang, Meng [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Self-Assembling Cell-Free Systems for Scalable Bioconversion

This project focused on developing cell-free systems to directly express multi-enzyme catalysts and perform CO2 bioconversions for industrial chemical production. The use of cell-free expression (CFE) systems derived from bacterial lysates is emerging as a promising approach for biomanufacturing. CFEs are genetically programmable, permit the expression of toxic enzymes, and allow for rapid prototyping of metabolic pathways. Research Contributions: 1. Understanding the Area Investigated: This research advances the understanding of cell-free systems by demonstrating their capability to perform complex multi-enzyme reactions. By directly expressing multi-gene systems, CFEs avoid the high costs and inefficiencies associated with producing and purifying enzymes for multi-step pathways. 2. Technical Effectiveness and Economic Feasibility: The project successfully engineered a CFE-based multienzyme biocatalyst for the de novo synthesis of serine and glycine from CO2 equivalents (formate and bicarbonate) and ammonia. This method achieved a 30% conversion rate of formate into these industrially important amino acids. Additionally, an 8-gene CFE biocatalyst was developed to produce malate, conserving 43% of carbon that would otherwise be lost as CO2. This approach has the potential to reach higher carbon efficiency than microbial production. 3. Public Benefit: The cell-free production of chemicals like serine, glycine, and malate using electrochemically generated formate could significantly reduce CO2 emissions. For example, satisfying the global malate market with this method could avoid approximately 400,000 tons of CO2 emissions annually. This work demonstrates the potential of CFE systems to produce platform chemicals, contributing to environmental sustainability and reducing reliance on petrochemicals. Future Prospects: The CFE-based biocatalyst process could be extended to produce a variety of chemicals, including other industrial di-acids, aromatics, terpenes, alcohols, and polymers. This project showcases the capabilities of cell-free expression systems for prototyping carbon-conserving pathways and sustainably bioproducing platform chemicals, marking a significant step towards economically-viable industrial processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

Integrated fluorescence light microscopy-guided cryo-focused ion beam-milling for in situ montage cryo-ET

Cryogenic-electron tomography (cryo-ET) permits the in situ visualization of biological macromolecules at the molecular level. Owing to the variable thickness of cells, tissues and organisms, frozen specimens may need to be thinned by cryo-focused ion beam (FIB) milling to produce thin (<500 nm) cryo-lamellae suitable for cryo-ET. Locating regions of interest remains a challenge because untargeted milling can lead to inadvertent ablation and removal of regions of interest. Correlative light and electron microscopy, combined with cryo-FIB milling, can guide the identification of labeled targets in the cellular milieu. Multiple transfers between cryo-imaging instruments, cumbersome correlation algorithms, limited accuracy and low throughput have hindered the routine adoption of cryo-FIB milling within a multimodal correlative workflow for in situ structural biology. Here, in this study, we present a workflow for 3D correlative cryo-fluorescence light microscopy-FIB-ET that streamlines fluorescence light microscopy-guided FIB milling, improving throughput while preserving both structural and contextual information. The complete integration of hardware and software described here minimizes sample contamination from cross-platform exchanges and greatly enhances the efficiency of 3D targeting in cryo-milling. We then describe procedures for implementing montage parallel array cryo-ET (MPACT), which can be easily adapted to any modern life-science transmission electron microscope. MPACT supports high-throughput cryo-ET acquisitions (10 tilt series in 1.5 h) for structure determination and comprehensive contextual understanding of macromolecules within their native surroundings. A complete session from sample preparation to MPACT data processing takes 5−7 d for an individual experienced in both cryo-EM and cryo-FIB milling.

Yang, Jie E. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (Uni

Evaluating the industrial potential of emerging biomass pretreatment technologies in bioethanol production and lipid recovery from transgenic sugarcane

The selection of pretreatment methods is critical to achieving high product yields during bioconversion of lignocellulosic biomass. Hydrothermal, soaking-in-aqueous ammonia, and ionic liquid pretreatment methods are viable candidates for minimizing sugar decomposition, permitting the effective hydrolysis of structural carbohydrates, and producing a fermentable substrate suitable for achieving industrial ethanol titers and yields. In this study, the effect of these three pretreatment methods on non-modified sugarcane cultivar CP88-1762 and two transgenic lipid-accumulating sugarcane lines, oilcane 1565 and oilcane 1566, were investigated and compared in terms of lipid recovery, sugar yield, and ethanol yields within the lignocellulosic biomass conversion pipeline. Fed-batch enzymatic hydrolysis at high solid loading yielded hydrolysates capable of supporting industrial bioethanol titers across all conditions. The highest sugar yields were obtained on ammonia-pretreated biomass hydrolysate (253.73 g L −1 ), followed by hydrothermally pretreated hydrolysate (213.10 g L −1 ) and ionic liquid-pretreated hydrolysate (154.20 g L −1 ). Commercially viable ethanol titers of 100.62 g L −1 , 64.47 g L −1 , and 52.95 g L −1 were achieved from ammonia, hydrothermal, and ionic liquid pretreated hydrolysate with the corresponding ethanol productivities of 2.08 g L −1 h −1 , 0.53 g L −1 h −1 , and 0.36 g L −1 h −1 . The lower acetic acid concentration in ammonia-pretreated hydrolysate may have enhanced its fermentability relative to the hydrothermal pretreatment condition, as indicated by the differences in ethanol titer and productivity. Lower sugar yields and ethanol productivities under the ionic liquid conditions likely resulted from the inhibitory effect of cholinium lysinate. Oilcane 1565 and oilcane 1566 bagasse accumulated over 16- and 3 times higher lipids than the non-modified sugarcane CP88-1762. The total fatty acid content in the oilcane samples was reduced in ammonia and ionic liquid-pretreated bagasse relative to the hydrothermal pretreatment condition. While all pretreatment techniques tested are industrially viable, the observed differences in titer, productivity, and lipid content indicate that careful selection and validation of upstream processing methods can contribute to improved economic and environmental outcomes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS

Data for "Evaluating the industrial potential of emerging biomass pretreatment technologies in bioethanol production and lipid recovery from transgenic sugarcane"

The selection of pretreatment methods is critical to achieving high product yields during bioconversion of lignocellulosic biomass. Hydrothermal, soaking-in-aqueous ammonia, and ionic liquid pretreatment methods are viable candidates for minimizing sugar decomposition, permitting the effective hydrolysis of structural carbohydrates, and producing a fermentable substrate suitable for achieving industrial ethanol titers and yields. In this study, the effect of these three pretreatment methods on non-modified sugarcane cultivar CP88-1762 and two transgenic lipid-accumulating sugarcane lines, oilcane 1565 and oilcane 1566, were investigated and compared in terms of lipid recovery, sugar yield, and ethanol yields within the lignocellulosic biomass conversion pipeline. Fed-batch enzymatic hydrolysis at high solid loading yielded hydrolysates capable of supporting industrial bioethanol titers across all conditions. The highest sugar yields were obtained on ammonia-pretreated biomass hydrolysate (253.73 g L−1), followed by hydrothermally pretreated hydrolysate (213.10 g L−1) and ionic liquid-pretreated hydrolysate (154.20 g L−1). Commercially viable ethanol titers of 100.62 g L−1, 64.47 g L−1, and 52.95 g L−1 were achieved from ammonia, hydrothermal, and ionic liquid pretreated hydrolysate with the corresponding ethanol productivities of 2.08 g L−1 h−1, 0.53 g L−1 h−1, and 0.36 g L−1 h−1. The lower acetic acid concentration in ammonia-pretreated hydrolysate may have enhanced its fermentability relative to the hydrothermal pretreatment condition, as indicated by the differences in ethanol titer and productivity. Lower sugar yields and ethanol productivities under the ionic liquid conditions likely resulted from the inhibitory effect of cholinium lysinate. Oilcane 1565 and oilcane 1566 bagasse accumulated over 16- and 3 times higher lipids than the non-modified sugarcane CP88-1762. The total fatty acid content in the oilcane samples was reduced in ammonia and ionic liquid-pretreated bagasse relative to the hydrothermal pretreatment condition. While all pretreatment techniques tested are industrially viable, the observed differences in titer, productivity, and lipid content indicate that careful selection and validation of upstream processing methods can contribute to improved economic and environmental outcomes.

biomass analytics

Design Basis Document / Owner’s Technical Specification for Nitrate Salt Systems in CSP Projects (Final Technical Report)

The number of commercial coal, gas, and nuclear projects built over the past 100 years number in the thousands. As such, there is a large database, available to a wide range of commercial engineering contractors, on proven designs. In essence, unsuccessful designs have, through generations of iterations, been identified and then deleted from further consideration. In contrast, the number of commercial parabolic trough projects using nitrate salt for the thermal storage media is perhaps 60. Further, the number of commercial central receiver projects using nitrate salt as the working fluid is on the order of 20, including estimates for China. Given the relative immaturity of salt technology, and commercial pressures to successfully bid new solar projects into a mature electricity market, solar projects often promise more than has been delivered. The Design Basis Document / Owner’s Technical Specification is a first step in the iteration process. The report describes the successful features of commercial projects, outlines a range equipment and system failures in projects that didn’t operate as intended, and provides a draft set of design changes intended to correct the known problems. The product of the study is 3 volumes of technical material; one volume is on parabolic trough technologies; a second is on central receiver technologies, and the third is on potential design changes to parabolic trough and central receiver projects. The 3 volumes, which total some 590 pages, can be found at https://www.solardynllc.com/csp-plant-technologies. One of the principal topics in the report is the use of functional or prescriptive specifications. Functional specifications describe what the equipment needs to do, consistent with the minimum legal requirements of the local jurisdictions. The details of how this is to be accomplished is developed by the engineering contractor. Prescriptive specifications, which are developed by the Owner, prescribe to the engineering contractor how the functional requirements are to be met. This arrangement ensures that the favorable experience from a previous project is repeated. One example is the design code for the hot salt tank in central receiver projects. The closest design basis is API Standard 650 Welded Steel Tanks for Oil Storage. However, the maximum design temperature in API 650 is 260 °C. As such, solar projects have typically adopted a hybrid Code approach, in which allowable material stresses are taken from ASME Section II Materials. Further, since the tanks experience daily changes in temperature and in (static) pressure, and since portions of the tank can operate at stresses beyond the elastic range, the low cycle fatigue life of the tank is conducted using the rules of Section VIII Division 2. However, in a recent study by NREL, the principal damage mechanism was identified as creep rather than fatigue. Further, design stresses permitted under Section VIII Division 2, corresponding to a fatigue life of 30 years, result in projected creep lifetimes of only 2 to 5 years. An alternate design approach, prescribed by the Owner, would be based on Code sections intended for high temperature service in the creep regime. A candidate is Section III Division 5. Granted, this is a nuclear code section, and it’s use would not likely be mandated by local jurisdictions. However, the effects of creep have been deemed to be of sufficient importance that one nuclear project developer, and one central receiver project developer, have stipulated in the tank design specification that the equipment be designed to the requirements of Section III Division 5.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Evaluation of AI-enabled Digital Documented Safety Analysis

The National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) is leading a transformative initiative to accelerate advanced reactor deployment by fundamentally reimagining how nuclear safety basis documentation is developed, reviewed, and maintained. Traditional Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) processes for DOE-authorized facilities rely on static, document-centric workflows that consume significant time and resources, exemplified by recent major licensing efforts requiring hundreds of thousands of staff hours and millions of pages of documentation review. These conventional approaches create barriers to the rapid, cost-effective deployment of advanced reactors that America's future energy needs demand. NRIC's DOE Authorization Digital Transformation Project addresses these challenges through an innovative framework that integrates artificial intelligence (AI), digital engineering, and systems-based data management into a cohesive digital ecosystem. This white paper presents NRIC's methodology for evaluating AI-enabled document generation capabilities within this broader digital infrastructure, using the Demonstration of Microreactor Experiments (DOME) facility as a pilot case study. The evaluation will assess an AI tool's ability to generate a Preliminary Documented Safety Analysis (PDSA) through progressive integration stages—from standalone document processing to full digital thread connectivity—while maintaining rigorous verification, validation, and regulatory acceptance standards. By establishing dynamic, traceable connections between design data and safety documentation, NRIC's approach has the potential to reduce both document development time and regulatory review cycles by as much as 50%, while simultaneously improving accuracy, consistency, and traceability. This initiative represents a critical step toward establishing reusable digital infrastructure that reactor developers can leverage to accelerate their path from concept to commercial operation, directly supporting NRIC's mission to demonstrate and deploy advanced nuclear energy technologies.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Quantifying CO 2 Plume Stabilization at Carbon Storage Projects, North Dakota, USA

This study presents an approach for quantifying when injected carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) stabilizes pursuant to carbon capture and storage (CCS) project permitting and site closure requirements. The distribution of mobile-phase CO 2 (CO 2 plume) will evolve within the storage reservoir during and after injection through both physical and chemical trapping mechanisms. CCS policies generally agree that the CO 2 plume’s migratory behavior in post-injection should demonstrate nonendangerment to the environment but do not provide specific guidance on how to meet the definition of plume stabilization, generating some uncertainty for operators. Plume stability herein means the CO 2 plume 1) changes size minimally and predictably in the storage reservoir such that it will not cross key boundaries identified in the permit and 2) does not pose a threat to human health, underground sources of drinking water (USDWs), and the environment because of lateral migration to areas where leakage pathways may exist. Published literature on plume metrics was reviewed to determine which metric(s) may be most appropriate for determining CO 2 plume stability. A technical approach that defines plume stabilization by estimating the rate of change in the geographic footprint of the CO 2 plume with respect to time was developed and illustrated using a case study from North Dakota, USA, as a proposed solution for CCS operators to apply at the project permitting stage. Any prospective CCS operator may benefit from using the same approach to inform the selection of pore space lease and monitoring areas and develop post-injection site care plans.

03 NATURAL GAS

The Snow Albedo Evolution (SALVO) Campaign at the North Slope of Alaska Field Campaign Report

The springtime surface-albedo transition in the Alaskan Arctic, along with the forces that determine its duration and nature, was the focus of the Snow ALbedo eVOlution (SALVO) campaign. The SALVO team investigated the reasons and durations of the stages of spring melt, during which albedo values decrease from 0.8 to 0.1, signifying the year’s largest and most significant radiative energy change. SALVO II (2022, 2024) built on findings from the successful SALVO I (2019) melt season campaign and previous research on the melt transition period conducted by Grenfell and Perovich (2004). SALVO used the ARM NSA observatory, thus aligning with a core principle of the ARM Decadal Vision to “provide comprehensive and impactful field measurements to support scientific advancement of atmospheric process understanding.” SALVO fieldwork was conducted in the spring near the ARM NSA Central Facility in Utqiagvik, Alaska (Figure 1). Comprehensive data sets were collected in 2019, 2022, and 2024, which included spectral and broadband albedos, snow and meltwater depths, snow stratigraphy, snow grain size data, and aerial imagery. In April of each project year, before the snow began to melt, we established survey lines at three or four locations: inland tundra at NSA E12, coastal tundra at the NSA C1 site, Elson Lagoon, and offshore on the Chukchi Sea sea ice (2022 only). We set up a 200-meter-long line, marked every five meters, to enable repeated measurements of surface albedo and snow depth at each location. During most site visits, the SALVO II team dug at least one snow pit to assess the characteristics of the vertical snow layers, including the types and sizes of snow grains, snow density, and the distribution of liquid water. We evaluated the characteristics of flowing or pooled water at the bottom of the snowpack. Watching snow melt in the Arctic has been compared by some to being as exciting as watching paint dry, but it is far more exciting and dynamic than that. Initially, changes happen slowly while the snow cover remains above 80%, but then reductions in the albedo of the landscape, from about 0.8 to 0.4, combined with rising spring temperatures, begin to accelerate the melt. It happens so quickly that no matter how hard the field team works, they cannot keep up with documenting the changes. At first, liquid water is scarce—only a few wet layers of snow in the snowpack. But then, water becomes ubiquitous, transporting melt energy and creating an extremely heterogeneous albedo and melt landscape. At the end of each field season, the SALVO team is exhausted, relieved to see the snow gone, and joyful to play in the melt ponds on the sea ice under the midnight sun. Overall, the 2024 SALVO field campaign was a highlight, reflecting numerous lessons learned from 2019 and 2022. Daily measurements were taken more than 10 times at each site, resulting in a comprehensive time series of snow conditions and albedo. The team deployed using snowmachines and then on foot when snowmachine travel was no longer permitted on the melting tundra. Instrument mounts and packaging were optimized for quick deployment, regardless of the mode of transportation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Improbability of Post-Closure Criticality in Array of Transuranic Waste Containers after Compaction by Salt Creep at Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

Based on the rationale presented, post-closure nuclear criticality is improbable when room closure compacts containers disposing transuranic (TRU) waste emplaced at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), an operating repository in bedded salt in southeastern New Mexico. As described in the original WIPP certification, a qualitative estimate of the probability of post-closure criticality in TRU waste produced from atomic energy defense activities has been low either because remote-handled TRU waste canisters are neutronically isolated by the bedded salt or because the low fissile mass in an array of contact-handled TRU waste drums cannot be compacted sufficiently by room closure from salt creep. These situations are still valid for the majority of TRU waste that is disposed at WIPP without any disposal constraints, as updated herein. This report also qualitatively evaluates the probability of criticality after disposal of TRU waste in pipe overpack containers (POC) where every POC in a shipment may have the maximum 200 fissile gram equivalent of 239Pu content. The probability of criticality for a disposal room filled with POCs is estimated during four representative phases of repository evolution: (1) a large salt block falls onto POCs in the first 20 years, (2) salt creep closes a disposal room in the first 1000 years without brine seepage and subsequent gas generation, which permits maximum compaction, (3) some brine seepage occurs into the closed room, which initiates consumption of the fiberboard (cellulose) impact absorber in the POC in the second 1000 years, and (4) full brine inundation of a room and consumption of all fiberboard thereafter. Salt-block fall in the first phase does not greatly disrupt three tiers of POCs. The compacted spacing of POCs in the later three repository conditions is calculated through high-fidelity, geomechanical modeling. Criticality evaluation of compacted 200-g 239 Pu spheres at the compacted spacing shows that neither 12-inch nor 6-inch POCs are critical after the first 1000 years, the second 1000 years, or thereafter as the sea of reflector material changes to represent the three repository conditions. Specifically, fiberboard and iron isolates 239 Pu while dry, and brine reduces the reactivity when a room is partially and fully inundated. Because POC behavior bounds behavior of other standard TRU waste containers, post-closure criticality caused by room closure compacting containers is omitted in the performance assessments for the 2019 and 2026 WIPP compliance re-certification applications to the US Environmental Protection Agency.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W

Modeling of Precipitation over Africa: Progress, Challenges, and Prospects

In recent years, there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society. This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and change. Likewise, this period has seen a significant increase in our understanding of the physical processes and mechanisms that drive precipitation and its variability across different regions of Africa. By leveraging a large volume of climate model outputs, numerous studies have investigated the model representation of African precipitation as well as underlying physical processes. These studies have assessed whether the physical processes are well depicted and whether the models are fit for informing mitigation and adaptation strategies. This paper provides a review of the progress in precipitation simulation over Africa in state-of-the-science climate models and discusses the major issues and challenges that remain.

CMIP6