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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Application of Point Precipitation Frequency Estimates to Watersheds

This report documents work sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) as part of the RES project, “Application of Point Precipitation Frequency Estimates to Watersheds.” This project was implemented as part of the Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Program. The objective of the PFHA Research Program is to develop tools and guidance on the use of PFHA methods to risk-inform NRC’s licensing of new facilities as well as licensing and oversight of currently operating facilities as they relate to flooding hazards. Many nuclear power plants (NPPs) are located on or near rivers so riverine flooding hazards need to be considered in their design and operation. Probabilistic riverine flood models are important tools for realistic assessment of flooding risks. However, these models require areal estimates of the depth, duration, and frequency of rainfall distributed over the watershed, which are not often available. Point precipitation frequency estimates are more widely available. For example, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has published NOAA Atlas 14, which provides point precipitation frequency estimates for 5-minute through 60-day durations at average recurrence intervals of 1-year through 1,000-year. The research documented in this report addresses areal reduction factors (ARFs), which can be used to convert the widely available point precipitation frequency estimates, to estimates of areal precipitation frequency over a watershed. The most widely used ARF source is Technical Paper 29 (TP-29) published by the then U.S. Weather Bureau in 1958. However, both the methods and the underlying precipitation data used to produce TP-29 are seriously out of date. For example, due to the small gauge network available at the time of TP-29’s compilation, ARF estimates developed are only for watersheds smaller than about 400 square miles. Due to the relatively short record lengths of precipitation data available, frequency considerations could not be accurately determined. Other factors such as regional climate and seasonality were not addressed. Several newer methods have been published since TP-29 was developed and both the type and quantity of precipitation data have increased significantly, along with computational resources and analytical tools such as geographic information systems. This report reviewed and assessed the available precipitation products and methods for conducting ARF analysis. The work applied up-to-date precipitation data products and analysis methods with a novel watershed-based approach to investigate how ARF estimates vary across different methods, data sources, geographical locations, return periods, and seasons. The overall findings reported here regarding basic ARF trends are in line with other recent studies showing that ARFs decrease with increasing area, increase with increasing duration, and decrease with increasing return period. This study found significant differences among the available ARF methods. This work also found a strong geographical variability across different US hydrologic regions, suggesting that the ARF are specific to regional climate patterns and geographical characteristics and should not be applied arbitrarily to other locations. The results also reveal the importance of data record length, especially for high return level ARFs. The work reported in NUREG/CR-7271 will assist NRC staff in assessing different classes of ARF methods in conjunction with available rainfall data sets. It will also support the development of guidance for application of point precipitation data in PFHAs. It should be noted that the ARF values presented in this report for any location or region were developed for the purposes of comparing methods and investigating the factors that influence ARFs. They should not be considered official and should not be used in leu of a site-specific analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1984

A comparison between GO/aperture-field and physical-optics methods for offset reflectors

Both geometrical optics (GO)/aperture-field and physical-optics (PO) methods are used extensively in the diffraction analysis of offset parabolic and dual reflectors. An analytical/numerical comparative study is performed to demonstrate the limitations of the GO/aperture-field method for accurately predicting the sidelobe and null positions and levels. In particular, it is shown that for offset parabolic reflectors and for feeds located at the focal point, the predicted far-field patterns (amplitude) by the GO/aperture-field method will always be symmetric even in the offset plane. This, of course, is inaccurate for the general case and it is shown that the physical-optics method can result in asymmetric patterns for cases in which the feed is located at the focal point. Representative numerical data are presented and a comparison is made with available measured data.

Rahmat-Samii, Y.↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Segmentation Algorithm for Characterizing Rise and Fall Segments in Seasonal Cycles: An Application to XCO2 to Estimate Benchmarks and Assess Model Bias

There is more useful information in the time series of satellite-derived column-averaged carbon dioxide (XCO2) than is typically characterized. Often, the entire time series is treated at once without considering detailed features at shorter timescales, such as nonstationary changes in signal characteristics – amplitude, period and phase. In many instances, signals are visually and analytically differentiable from other portions in a time series. Each rise (increasing) and fall (decreasing) segment in the seasonal cycle is visually discernable in a graph of the time series. The rise and fall segments largely result from seasonal differences in terrestrial ecosystem production, which means that the segment's signal characteristics can be used to establish observational benchmarks because the signal characteristics are driven by similar underlying processes. We developed an analytical segmentation algorithm to characterize the rise and fall segments in XCO2 seasonal cycles. We present the algorithm for general application of the segmentation analysis and emphasize here that the segmentation analysis is more generally applicable to cyclic time series. We demonstrate the utility of the algorithm with specific results related to the comparison between satellite- and model-derived XCO2 seasonal cycles (2009–2012) for large bioregions across the globe. We found a seasonal amplitude gradient of 0.74–0.77 ppm for every 10∘ of latitude in the satellite data, with similar gradients for rise and fall segments. This translates to a south–north seasonal amplitude gradient of 8 ppm for XCO2, about half the gradient in seasonal amplitude based on surface site in situ CO2 data (∼19 ppm). The latitudinal gradients in the period of the satellite-derived seasonal cycles were of opposing sign and magnitude (−9 d per 10∘ latitude for fall segments and 10 d per 10∘ latitude for rise segments) and suggest that a specific latitude (∼2∘ N) exists that defines an inversion point for the period asymmetry. Before (after) the point of asymmetry inversion, the periods of rise segments are lesser (greater) than the periods of fall segments; only a single model could reproduce this emergent pattern. The asymmetry in amplitude and the period between rise and fall segments introduces a novel pattern in seasonal cycle analyses, but, while we show these emergent patterns exist in the data, we are still breaking ground in applying the information for science applications. Maybe the most useful application is that the segmentation analysis allowed us to decompose the model biases into their correlated parts of biases in amplitude, period and phase independently for rise and fall segments. We offer an extended discussion on how such information about model biases and the emergent patterns in satellite-derived seasonal cycles can be used to guide future inquiry and model development.

Calle, Leonardo↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Segmentation Algorithm for Characterizing Rise and Fall Segments in Seasonal Cycles: an Application to Xco2 to Estimate Benchmarks and Assess Model Bias

There is more useful information in the time series of satellite-derived column-averaged carbon dioxide (XCO2) than is typically characterized. Often, the entire time series is treated at once without considering detailed features at shorter timescales, such as nonstationary changes in signal characteristics – amplitude, period and phase. In many instances, signals are visually and analytically differentiable from other portions in a time series. Each rise (increasing) and fall (decreasing) segment in the seasonal cycle is visually discernable in a graph of the time series. The rise and fall segments largely result from seasonal differences in terrestrial ecosystem production, which means that the segment's signal characteristics can be used to establish observational benchmarks because the signal characteristics are driven by similar underlying processes. We developed an analytical segmentation algorithm to characterize the rise and fall segments in XCO2 seasonal cycles. We present the algorithm for general application of the segmentation analysis and emphasize here that the segmentation analysis is more generally applicable to cyclic time series. We demonstrate the utility of the algorithm with specific results related to the comparison between satellite- and model-derived XCO2 seasonal cycles (2009–2012) for large bioregions across the globe. We found a seasonal amplitude gradient of 0.74–0.77 ppm for every 10∘ of latitude in the satellite data, with similar gradients for rise and fall segments. This translates to a south–north seasonal amplitude gradient of 8 ppm for XCO2, about half the gradient in seasonal amplitude based on surface site in situ CO2 data (∼19 ppm). The latitudinal gradients in the period of the satellite-derived seasonal cycles were of opposing sign and magnitude (−9 d per 10∘ latitude for fall segments and 10 d per 10∘ latitude for rise segments) and suggest that a specific latitude (∼2∘ N) exists that defines an inversion point for the period asymmetry. Before (after) the point of asymmetry inversion, the periods of rise segments are lesser (greater) than the periods of fall segments; only a single model could reproduce this emergent pattern. The asymmetry in amplitude and the period between rise and fall segments introduces a novel pattern in seasonal cycle analyses, but, while we show these emergent patterns exist in the data, we are still breaking ground in applying the information for science applications. Maybe the most useful application is that the segmentation analysis allowed us to decompose the model biases into their correlated parts of biases in amplitude, period and phase independently for rise and fall segments. We offer an extended discussion on how such information about model biases and the emergent patterns in satellite-derived seasonal cycles can be used to guide future inquiry and model development.

segmentation algorithm↗
DOE OSTI2020

Three dimensional cluster analysis for atom probe tomography using Ripley’s K-function and machine learning

The size and structure of spatial molecular and atomic clustering can significantly impact material properties and is therefore important to accurately quantify. Ripley’s K-function (K(r)), a measure of spatial correlation, can be used to perform such quantification when the material system of interest can be represented as a marked point pattern. This work demonstrates how machine learning models based on K (r)-derived metrics can accurately estimate cluster size and intra-cluster density in simulated three dimensional (3D) point patterns containing spherical clusters of varying size; over 90% of model estimates for cluster size and intra-cluster density fall within 11% and 18% error of the true values, respectively. These K (r)-based size and density estimates are then applied to an experimental APT reconstruction to characterize MgZn clusters in a 7000 series aluminum alloy. Here we find that the estimates are more accurate, consistent, and robust to user interaction than estimates from the popular maximum separation algorithm. Using K (r) and machine learning to measure clustering is an accurate and repeatable way to quantify this important material attribute.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Polariton Condensation in Gap-Confined States of Photonic Crystal Waveguides

Here, the development of patterned multiquantum well heterostructures in GaAs/AlGaAs waveguides has recently made it possible to achieve exciton-polariton condensation in a topologically protected bound state in the continuum (BIC). Polariton condensation was shown to occur above a saddle point of the two-dimensional polariton dispersion in a one-dimensional photonic crystal waveguide. A rigorous analysis of the condensation phenomenon in these systems, as well as the role of the BIC, is still missing. In the present Letter, we theoretically and experimentally fill this gap by showing that polariton confinement resulting from the negative effective mass and the photonic energy gap in the dispersion play a key role in enhancing the relaxation toward the condensed state. In fact, our results show that low-threshold polariton condensation is achieved within the effective trap created by the exciting laser spot, regardless of whether the resulting confined mode is long-lived (polariton BIC) or short-lived (lossy mode). In both cases, the spatial quantization of the polariton condensate and the threshold differences associated to the corresponding state lifetime are measured and characterized. For a given negative mass, a slightly lower condensation threshold from the polariton BIC mode is found and associated to its reduced radiative losses, as compared to the lossy one.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Transient Catalytic Reaction Analysis Through Signal Defragmentation

The Temporal Analysis of Products (TAP) pulse response technique provides valuable insights into catalytic function and reaction kinetics. However, complex fragmentation patterns in the TAP mass spectrometry signals can complicate precise quantification, particularly when analyzing transient gas flux data typical of TAP experiments. This work demonstrates a standard defragmentation method that deconvolves transient TAP signals while maintaining the temporal resolution of the experiment. First, the integrals of calibration gas fluxes are used to determine the fingerprint fragmentation pattern and construct a fragmentation matrix. This matrix is then used to defragment experimental flux data at each recorded time point via a non-negative least squares regression. The effectiveness of this method is demonstrated using virtual data and control experiments with a TAP reactor system. The defragmentation is then applied to the more complex propane dehydrogenation reaction on a chromia/alumina catalyst, which can contain up to ten significant gas species in the reactor outlet. Initial propane pulsing reveals an induction period during which propane is fully oxidized to CO2, followed by partial reduction to CO. Afterwards, there is a transition in chemistries towards coking and propylene production. Our example illustrates a practical method for the accurate determination of the time-dependent reactant/product concentrations and rates for a thorough analysis of the propane dehydrogenation kinetics. This approach can be broadly applied to any transient mass spectrometry experiment for a better understanding of catalyst-reaction dynamics.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparative genomics analysis of drought response between obligate CAM and C 3 photosynthesis plants

Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) plants exhibit elevated drought and heat tolerance compared to C 3 and C 4 plants through an inverted pattern of day/night stomatal closure and opening for CO 2 assimilation. However, the molecular responses to water-deficit conditions remain unclear in obligate CAM species. In this study, we presented genome-wide transcription sequencing analysis using leaf samples of an obligate CAM species Kalanchoë fedtschenkoi under moderate and severe drought treatments at two-time points of dawn (2-h before the start of light period) and dusk (2-h before the dark period). Differentially expressed genes were identified in response to environmental drought stress and a whole genome wide co-expression network was created as well. We found that the expression of CAM-related genes was not regulated by drought stimuli in K. fedtschenkoi. Our comparative analysis revealed that CAM species (K. fedtschenkoi) and C 3 species (Arabidopsis thaliana, Populus deltoides ‘WV94’) share some common transcriptional changes in genes involved in multiple biological processes in response to drought stress, including ABA signaling and biosynthesis of secondary metabolites.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1985

Pilot usage of decoupled flight path and pitch controls

Data from decoupled flight maneuvers have been collected and analyzed for four AFTI-F-16 pilots operating this aircraft's highly augmented fly-by-wire control system, in order to obtain spectral density, cross spectra, and Bode amplitude data, as well as coherences and phase angles for the two longitudinal axis control functions of each of 50 20-sec epochs. The analysis of each epoch yielded five distinct plotted parameters for the left hand twist grip and right hand sidestick controller output time series. These two control devices allow the left hand to generate vertical translation, direct lift, or pitch-pointing commands that are decoupled from those of the right hand. Attention is given to the control patterns obtained for decoupled normal flight, air-to-air gun engagement decoupled maneuvering, and decoupled air-to-surface bombing run maneuvering.

Berkhout, J.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Calculating Effects of Reflector-Antenna Distortions

Mathematical numerical model accurately predicts effects of systematic distortions on radiation pattern of reflector antenna. Techniques for predicting radiation patterns developed previously for reflectors with perfect surfaces and surfaces with random deviations from perfection. New model treats reflectors distorted by thermal, gravitational, and dynamic effects. Diffraction analysis of reflector antenna depends on interpolation of surface description for farfield radiation integral. Local interpolation scheme uses bicubic or higher order polynomial approximation of surface to express desired surface point in terms of nearby known surface points.

Rahmat-Samii, Y.↗
NASA NTRS1988

In situ observations of ClO in the wintertime Northern Hemisphere: ER-2 aircraft results from 21 N to 61 N latitude

Measurements of lower stratospheric ClO taken during a NASA ER-2 flight between Moffett Field, CA (37 N, 122 W) and Great Slave Lake, Canada (61 N, 116 W) on 13 February 1988 are reported. Northbound, the aircraft was flown at about 20 km altitude from 39 N to 56 N, at 18 km from there to 58 N, in a descent to 15 km at 60 N, and in a rise and turn at the northernmost point. The southbound leg was flown in a gradual climb from 20 km to 21.5 km. On this day, the central position of the Arctic polar vortex, as determined by an NMC analysis of heights and temperatures at the 50 mb and 70 mb levels, was approximately 79 N, 100 W. Because the vortex was located on the North American side of the pole, the aircraft was able to reach a point slightly inside the maximum horizontal wind region where wind speeds were 80 to 90 knots. The general pattern for the observed ClO is that it increased with both latitude and altitude, and attained a maximum of about 55 pptv at 61 N latitude and 20.5 km altitude. This value is about 20 times smaller than the maxima observed over Antarctica, but is comparable to those seen just outside the chemical containment vessel located inside the Antarctic Polar vortex. On the other hand, in a comparison with northern midlatitude data taken on this and three other February flights, ClO mixing ratios observed north of 55 N latitude are 2 to 5 times larger at all flight altitudes (15 to 20 km). Possible reasons are discussed for this enhancement over midlatitude and the evidence is considered for whether or not the instruments sampled Arctic polar vortex air. A second feature of the data is the strong positive correlation between ClO and O3 during the entire flight.

Brune, W. H.↗
DOE OSTI2023

PROTEUS: Machine Learning Driven Resilience for Extreme-scale Systems

The objective of this project is to design, develop, and evaluate scalable software to enhance resilience, data checkpointing, program restart, and analysis. The proposed tasks are to 1) develop scalable machine learning techniques to learn temporal change patterns in a scalable and in-situ manner, and to minimize data movement and maximize learning locally closest to data; 2) design a concise data representation and indexing mechanism to capture the distribution of changes in data that can guarantee point-wise user-defined tolerable errors while reducing the data storage requirements by an order of magnitude or more; 3) develop data reduction techniques as library modules; 4) exploit local SSD for minimizing data movement in storage hierarchy; 5) develop anomaly detection algorithms that can predict corruptions based on learning of emerging patterns; 6) develop software libraries to be incorporated within widely used data formats and APIs; and 7) evaluate the proposed software using DOE scientific applications. The outcomes of the proposed work are to satisfy many synergistic data reduction and resilience requirements for large-scale data intensive applications executed on extreme-scale computing systems. The developed mechanism for error-bound data approximation is directly applicable to existing scientific applications. Through machine learning from historical events and change distribution, this work will enable anomaly detection for DOE computer facility.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1996

Analysis of EUVE Experiment Results

A series of tests to validate an antenna pointing concept for spin-stabilized satellites using a data relay satellite are described. These tests show that proper antenna pointing on an inertially-stabilized spacecraft can lead to significant access time through the relay satellite even without active antenna pointing. We summarize the test results, the simulations to model the effects of antenna pattern and space loss, and the expected contact times. We also show how antenna beam width affects the results.

Horan, Stephen↗
NASA NTRS2013

Ten Years of Land Cover Change on the California Coast Detected using Landsat Satellite Image Analysis

Landsat satellite imagery was analyzed to generate a detailed record of 10 years of vegetation disturbance and regrowth for Pacific coastal areas of Marin and San Francisco Counties. The Landsat Ecosystem Disturbance Adaptive Processing System (LEDAPS) methodology, a transformation of Tasseled-Cap data space, was applied to detected changes in perennial coastal shrubland, woodland, and forest cover from 1999 to 2009. Results showed several principal points of interest, within which extensive contiguous areas of similar LEDAPS vegetation change (either disturbed or restored) were detected. Regrowth areas were delineated as burned forest areas in the Point Reyes National Seashore (PRNS) from the 1995 Vision Fire. LEDAPS-detected disturbance patterns on Inverness Ridge, PRNS in areas observed with dieback of tanoak and bay laurel trees was consistent with defoliation by sudden oak death (Phytophthora ramorum). LEDAPS regrowth pixels were detected over much of the predominantly grassland/herbaceous cover of the Olema Valley ranchland near PRNS. Extensive restoration of perennial vegetation cover on Crissy Field, Baker Beach and Lobos Creek dunes in San Francisco was identified. Based on these examples, the LEDAPS methodology will be capable of fulfilling much of the need for continual, low-cost monitoring of emerging changes to coastal ecosystems.

Land Cover Change↗
NASA NTRS2018

Validation of Ozone Profile Retrievals Derived from the OMPS LP Version 2.5 Algorithm Against Correlative Satellite Measurements

The Limb Profiler (LP) is a part of the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite launched on board of the Suomi NPP satellite in October 2011. The LP measures solar radiation scattered from the atmospheric limb in ultraviolet and visible spectral ranges between the surface and 80 km. These measurements of scattered solar radiances allow for the retrieval of ozone profiles from cloud tops up to 55 km. The LP started operational observations in April 2012. In this study we evaluate more than 5.5 years of ozone profile measurements from the OMPS LP processed with the new NASA GSFC version 2.5 retrieval algorithm. We provide a brief description of the key changes that had been implemented in this new algorithm, including a pointing correction, new cloud height detection, explicit aerosol correction and a reduction of the number of wavelengths used in the retrievals. The OMPS LP ozone retrievals have been compared with independent satellite profile measurements obtained from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) and Odin Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imaging System (OSIRIS). We document observed biases and seasonal differences and evaluate the stability of the version 2.5 ozone record over 5.5 years. Our analysis indicates that the mean differences between LP and correlative measurements are well within required +/- 10% between 18 and 42 km. In the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere (>43 km) LP tends to have a negative bias. We find larger biases in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere, but LP ozone retrievals have significantly improved in version 2.5 compared to version 2 due to the implemented aerosol correction. In the northern high latitudes we observe larger biases between 20 and 32 km due to the remaining thermal sensitivity issue. Our analysis shows that LP ozone retrievals agree well with the correlative satellite observations in characterizing vertical, spatial and temporal ozone distribution associated with natural processes, like the seasonal cycle and quasi-biennial oscillations. We found a small positive drift approx. 0.5%/yr in the LP ozone record against MLS and OSIRIS that is more pronounced at altitudes above 35 km. This pattern in the relative drift is consistent with a possible 100m drift in the LP sensor pointing detected by one of our altitude-resolving methods.

Ozone Mapping↗
NASA NTRS2014

NASA Numerical and Experimental Evaluation of UTRC Low Emissions Injector

Computational and experimental analyses of a PICS-Pilot-In-Can-Swirler technology injector, developed by United Technologies Research Center (UTRC) are presented. NASA has defined technology targets for near term (called "N+1", circa 2015), midterm ("N+2", circa 2020) and far term ("N+3", circa 2030) that specify realistic emissions and fuel efficiency goals for commercial aircraft. This injector has potential for application in an engine to meet the Pratt & Whitney N+3 supersonic cycle goals, or the subsonic N+2 engine cycle goals. Experimental methods were employed to investigate supersonic cruise points as well as select points of the subsonic cycle engine; cruise, approach, and idle with a slightly elevated inlet pressure. Experiments at NASA employed gas analysis and a suite of laser-based measurement techniques to characterize the combustor flow downstream from the PICS dump plane. Optical diagnostics employed for this work included Planar Laser-Induced Fluorescence of fuel for injector spray pattern and Spontaneous Raman Spectroscopy for relative species concentration of fuel and CO2. The work reported here used unheated (liquid) Jet-A fuel for all fuel circuits and cycle conditions. The initial tests performed by UTRC used vaporized Jet-A to simulate the expected supersonic cruise condition, which anticipated using fuel as a heat sink. Using the National Combustion Code a PICS-based combustor was modeled with liquid fuel at the supersonic cruise condition. All CFD models used a cubic non-linear k-epsilon turbulence wall functions model, and a semi-detailed Jet-A kinetic mechanism based on a surrogate fuel mixture. Two initial spray droplet size distribution and spray cone conditions were used: (1) an initial condition (Lefebvre) with an assumed Rosin-Rammler distribution, and 7 degree Solid Spray Cone; and (2) the Boundary Layer Stripping (BLS) primary atomization model giving the spray size distribution and directional properties. Contour and line plots are shown in comparison with experimental data (where this data is available) for flow velocities, fuel, and temperature distribution. The CFD results are consistent with experimental observations for fuel distribution and vaporization. Analysis of gas sample results, using a previously-developed NASA NOx correlation, indicates that for sea-level takeoff, the PICS configuration is predicted to deliver an EINOx value of about three for the targeted supersonic aircraft. Emissions results at supersonic cruise conditions show potential for meeting the NASA goals with liquid fuel.

Hicks, Yolanda R.↗
NASA NTRS2014

NASA Numerical and Experimental Evaluation of UTRC Low Emissions Injector

Computational and experimental analyses of a PICS-Pilot-In-Can-Swirler technology injector, developed by United Technologies Research Center (UTRC) are presented. NASA has defined technology targets for near term (called "N+1", circa 2015), midterm ("N+2", circa 2020) and far term ("N+3", circa 2030) that specify realistic emissions and fuel efficiency goals for commercial aircraft. This injector has potential for application in an engine to meet the Pratt & Whitney N+3 supersonic cycle goals, or the subsonic N+2 engine cycle goals. Experimental methods were employed to investigate supersonic cruise points as well as select points of the subsonic cycle engine; cruise, approach, and idle with a slightly elevated inlet pressure. Experiments at NASA employed gas analysis and a suite of laser-based measurement techniques to characterize the combustor flow downstream from the PICS dump plane. Optical diagnostics employed for this work included Planar Laser-Induced Fluorescence of fuel for injector spray pattern and Spontaneous Raman Spectroscopy for relative species concentration of fuel and CO2. The work reported here used unheated (liquid) Jet-A fuel for all fuel circuits and cycle conditions. The initial tests performed by UTRC used vaporized Jet-A to simulate the expected supersonic cruise condition, which anticipated using fuel as a heat sink. Using the National Combustion Code a PICS-based combustor was modeled with liquid fuel at the supersonic cruise condition. All CFD models used a cubic non-linear k-epsilon turbulence wall functions model, and a semi-detailed Jet-A kinetic mechanism based on a surrogate fuel mixture. Two initial spray droplet size distribution and spray cone conditions were used: 1) an initial condition (Lefebvre) with an assumed Rosin-Rammler distribution, and 7 degree Solid Spray Cone; and 2) the Boundary Layer Stripping (BLS) primary atomization model giving the spray size distribution and directional properties. Contour and line plots are shown in comparison with experimental data (where this data is available) for flow velocities, fuel, and temperature distribution. The CFD results are consistent with experimental observations for fuel distribution and vaporization. Analysis of gas sample results, using a previously-developed NASA NOx correlation, indicates that for sea-level takeoff, the PICS configuration is predicted to deliver an EINOx value of about 3 for the targeted supersonic aircraft. Emissions results at supersonic cruise conditions show potential for meeting the NASA goals with liquid fuel.

Hicks, Yolanda R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Decision Aid for Conjunction Risk Mitigation by Differential Drag

In the previous five years, the rate of conjunctions that the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team processed and analyzed has more than tripled. (NASA CARA, 2024) New missions in the early development phases are now required to plan for dealing with conjunctions under the present space environment, and also projecting forward into a future likely with even further increased utilization of the space environment. Some missions are investigating the possibility of using differential drag to remediate conjunctions without expending limited fuel or for missions without propulsive capabilities. The NASA CARA team studied the historical record of conjunctions to evaluate the circumstances under which differential drag may be successfully applied and have developed a series of tables to use as a decision aid for missions considering differential drag. Currently, if a CARA-protected mission with maneuvering capabilities is predicted to have a conjunction with probability of collision (Pc) greater than 7E-5 (the default value of the ‘yellow threshold’, which may have some other value agreed by CARA and the mission during the Orbital Collison Avoidance Planning (OCAP) process), CARA will use its Maneuver Trade Space (MTS) tool to evaluate and recommend options for the timing and magnitude of a risk mitigation maneuver (RMM), based on the mission’s capabilities. If the conjunction’s Pc is greater than 1E-4, the ‘red threshold’, then an RMM must be executed per NASA Procedural Requirements (NPR) 8079.1 (NASA, 2023), although missions may execute an RMM even if the Pc is lower. The magnitude of the maneuver is typically a few cm/s, and CARA estimates how many will be required for the mission’s nominal lifetime – typically a few per year – during the OCAP process, to inform the mission’s delta-V requirement. For traditional satellites, this is usually smaller than other requirements for orbit insertion, maintenance, and disposal, but for CubeSats or other small satellite missions, a propulsion system may not provide much more than a few cm/s of delta-V or may not fit at all within the available budget of money, time, size, weight, and/or power (SWaP). Conversely, CubeSats often have deployable solar panels, which offer the capacity to have much higher areas facing some directions than others. Such a mission can instead use ‘differential drag’ to remediate a conjunction -- in other words, change its drag area (usually increasing) to deviate from the predicted collision course. This is how Planet’s Dove spacecraft maintain their formations and remediate conjunction risks without having on-board propulsion (Foster, et al., 2017) (Griffith, et al., 2021). CARA has been developing improvements to MTS to support differential-drag for NASA's missions -- where it is effective. CARA records all conjunctions of their protected payloads, with historical records starting in 2005 (with significant conjunction events starting to occur on or after 2013). From this record, approximately 7,300 had a Pc greater than 1E-4 at 3 days prior to the time of closest approach, the time analyzed for differential drag efficacy. Of those, approximately 4,300 had fully-defined covariance matrices stored for both the primary and secondary objects; this set of conjunctions is the basis for the analysis of this work. CARA’s MTS tool was used to propagate the primary satellite forward from that decision point with varying degrees of increase to ballistic coefficient (BC). Because these conjunctions came from multiple missions, the nondimensional ‘delta-BC’ factor was used to quantify and normalize the increase in ballistic coefficient, defined as follows: Delta-BC = BC_new / BC_old - 1 Positive delta-BC factors represent an increase in drag compared to the nominal attitude, while negative delta-BC factors (to a minimum of -1) represent a decrease in drag. At the conclusion of the differential-drag ‘maneuver’, the Pc was recalculated to evaluate whether or not the conjunction was mitigated (Pc < 3E-6). These results were then binned and sorted along several axes, including altitude, amount of delta-BC, and (pre-maneuver) rate of energy dissipation (EDR), to identify underlying patterns. The altitude plot is shown in Figure 1. To validate this analysis, we consulted the record of a NASA mission which uses differential drag to maintain its orbit and remediate conjunction risk. CARA’s empirical record of the mission’s orbit history suggests it achieves a delta-BC of 2.2. Of the twenty-one RMM plans that were submitted by this mission, eighteen were matched with conjunctions in the historical record; of those, twelve were successfully remediated (final measured Pc < 3E-6), and six were not. This is consistent with the expected efficacy for missions orbiting at that altitude. We are presently simulating this mission’s RMMs with MTS; this work is ongoing, but so far, the MTS results are qualitatively in agreement with the empirical results -- correctly predicting that a maneuver would or would not remediate a conjunction, if not exactly matching the final post-remediation Pc value. We found that differential drag was most successful for satellites with perigees below 560 km, and which could adopt an average delta-BC of 2 or greater (that is, increasing their ballistic coefficient by a factor of 3). However, this is a difficult threshold for a mission to clear; very few spacecraft are capable of adopting a high-drag configuration for 72 hours continuously. Planet’s Dove spacecraft use differential drag to remediate conjunctions (Griffith, et al., 2021), and they have a maximum delta-BC factor of 9, but in practice (with mission and charging constraints) they achieve a time-averaged delta-BC that is closer to 2 (Foster, et al., 2017). A mission’s differential drag utility strongly depends on the operational constraints that has the capacity to limit the time-averaged delta-BC. A mission with a high maximum delta-BC of 5 or more can have an effective delta-BC of less than 1 due to operational constraints such as instrument and solar panel pointing, especially if this constraint results in holding an intermediate drag value for most of its orbit. CARA has developed tables that can be used as decision aids to advise missions-in-development about the best way to utilize their differential drag capabilities. For missions below 560 km with the operational flexibility to devote multiple days to holding a high-drag configuration (or a sufficiently high drag ratio to compensate for limitations on that time), they are -- more likely than not -- able to successfully remediate high-risk conjunctions. Conversely, missions that do not meet these exacting criteria -- most missions -- can instead be advised to use on-board propulsion systems to perform RMMs, or to turn their minimum-area face towards the approach vector, thereby reducing Pc at the moment of conjunction due to the decreased Hard-Body Radius (HBR), that is a strongly correlated variable in the Pc calculations. (NASA, 2023)

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