NSIUWG security sub-group
The following subject areas are covered: toolkits for NSI security; security policies and documentation; and risk analysis and management.
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Results for “Policy analysis”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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The crush of new earth science data knocking at our door
The reasons for collecting massive amounts of earth science data in the Earth Observing System (EOS) Project are discussed. A processing hierarchy for handling the data is described, and the prospects for adequate throughput and storage for operational data analysis in the EOS era are addressed. Needs for successful exploratory data analysis are examined, and the policy issues implicated by the large stream of EOS data are considered.
Kahn, Ralph↗
Probability of Causation for Space Radiation Carcinogenesis Following International Space Station, Near Earth Asteroid, and Mars Missions
Cancer risk is an important concern for International Space Station (ISS) missions and future exploration missions. An important question concerns the likelihood of a causal association between a crew members radiation exposure and the occurrence of cancer. The probability of causation (PC), also denoted as attributable risk, is used to make such an estimate. This report summarizes the NASA model of space radiation cancer risks and uncertainties, including improvements to represent uncertainties in tissue-specific cancer incidence models for never-smokers and the U.S. average population. We report on tissue-specific cancer incidence estimates and PC for different post-mission times for ISS and exploration missions. An important conclusion from our analysis is that the NASA policy to limit the risk of exposure-induced death to 3% at the 95% confidence level largely ensures that estimates of the PC for most cancer types would not reach a level of significance. Reducing uncertainties through radiobiological research remains the most efficient method to extend mission length and establish effective mitigators for cancer risks. Efforts to establish biomarkers of space radiation-induced tumors and to estimate PC for rarer tumor types are briefly discussed.
Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
Technology Development and Infusion by NASA's Entry Systems Modeling Project
This paper describes recent development of modeling and simulation technologies for entry systems and their infusion into NASA's exploration missions. Technology development is organized and prioritized using a system-level perspective, resulting in four broad technical areas of investment: (1) Thermal protection material modeling, (2) Shock layer kinetics and radiation, (3) Computational and experimental aerosciences, and (4) Guidance, navigation, and control. The paper will highlight key contributions from each of these areas, their impacts from a spacecraft and mission design perspective, and discuss planned future investment. Aspects of each technical area are only briefly summarized here. Thermal protection material modeling is geared toward high-fidelity, predictive models capable of optimizing design performance, post-flight reconstruction, and quantifying thermal protection system reliability. New computational tools and experimental techniques have been applied to Orion, MSL/Mars 2020, Mars InSight, and Mars Sample Return missions. Research and development in the area of shock layer kinetics has focused on air and CO2-based atmospheres. In both cases, substantial improvements in model uncertainty have directly impacted the development of mission margin policies, flight instrumentation design and analysis (Orion and Mars 2020), and have even revealed the importance of neglected phenomena like mid-wave infrared radiation of CO2. Aerosciences is a very broad area of interest in entry systems, yet a number of important challenges are being addressed: Coupled fluid-structure simulations of parachute inflation and dynamics affecting Orion, Commercial Crew, and Mars programs; Experimental and computational studies of vehicle dynamics; Multi-phase flow with dust particles to simulate augmentation of aerothermal environments at Mars during dust storms; and studies of roughness-induced heating augmentation relevant to tiled (Orion, Mars 2020) and woven (Mars Sample Return) thermal protection systems. Guidance and control in the context of entry systems has focused on development of methods for multi-axis control (i.e. pitch and yaw, rather than bank angle alone) of spacecraft during entry and descent, with precision landing requirements driven by Mars human exploration goals.
Barnhardt, Michael D.↗
Editorial: Developing and Deploying Negative Emission Technologies: System-Level Assessment and Rationalization
Abstract not provided.
ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,ENVIRONMENTAL↗
Factors Influencing Adoption of Pooled Rideshare An Explorative Study on User-Centered Design and Services
The rise of real-time information communication through smartphones and wireless networks enabled the growth of ridesharing services. While personal rideshare services (individuals ride alone or with people they know) initially dominated the market, the popularity of pooled ridesharing (individuals share rides with strangers) has grown globally. However, pooled rideshare remains less common in the U.S., where personal vehicle usage is still the norm. Vehicle design and rideshare services may need to be tailored to user preferences to increase pooled rideshare adoption. A national U.S. survey ( N = 5,385) used exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses to identify four key factors influencing riders’ willingness to consider pooled rideshare: comfort/ease of use, convenience, vehicle technology/accessibility, and passenger safety. Understanding and implementing these user-centered design principles and service-related factors may be critical for increasing the future use of pooled rideshare services
Gangadharaiah, Rakesh↗
SEIN: Breaking Barriers Resilient Energy System Analysis [Slides]
The Solar Energy Innovation Network (SEIN) is a collaborative research program that supports multi-stakeholder teams in researching and sharing solutions to real-world challenges associated with solar energy adoption. The Breaking Barriers project was selected to participate in the Solar Energy Innovation Network, Round 2, and was led by Groundswell, a D.C.-based clean energy project developer. The Breaking Barriers team included Partnership for Southern Equity, Atlanta University Center campus facility managers and professors, the City of Atlanta's Neighborhood Planning Unit T, and Georgia Power Company. The project aimed to design and construct innovative urban energy resiliency hubs integrating microgrid technology, solar generation, and energy storage in Atlanta colleges and communities. The hubs will help these historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs) and the energy-burdened broader community in West Atlanta be more resilient, in addition to informing new course curricula at Atlanta University Center campuses. With many possible options for the system's battery size, the Breaking Barriers team needed insight into the relationships between BESS size, economic performance, and resilience at Spelman College's Manley Center. These insights are crucial for entering procurement negotiations with project developers, establishing resilience capabilities that the HBCU campuses can plan around, and guiding the team's fundraising targets. This analysis includes estimates of PV and battery performance, costs, savings, and resilience for multiple battery sizes. In order to provide power during a grid outage, the resilient energy system also needs to be connected to the Manley Center in a safe and island-able manner (electrically isolated from the grid). Analysis of potential electrical configurations and estimated setup costs is key to successfully entering a required interconnection agreement with Georgia Power, as well as informing requests for engineering firms to construct the system. This analysis includes conceptual options and rough order of magnitude cost estimates for electrically interconnecting the resilient energy system to the Manley Center and the grid. The Breaking Barriers team used this analysis to select preferred system characteristics and design for the resilient energy system.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Making Data-Driven Policy Decisions for the Nation’s First Building Energy Performance Standards
Nearly every major U.S. city has committed itself to ambitious climate action goals – for Washington, DC this means a 50 percent reduction in greenhouse gases by 2032 and carbon neutrality by 2050. In support of these goals, Washington, DC has passed one of the most aggressive and practical climate action bills in the nation—with the Clean Energy DC Omnibus Act, DC became the first city in the U.S. to adopt energy performance standards for existing buildings. DC’s Building Energy Performance Standards (BEPS) require energy efficiency improvements for all commercial and multifamily buildings that do not meet a sector-specific minimum ENERGY STAR score or equivalent metric, with iterative compliance cycles every five years that will accelerate the pace of whole building retrofits. This paper explores this revolutionary policy framework and uses two data analysis projects that DC conducted to evaluate the potential impact of the BEPS and move towards carbon neutrality. First, we analyze the potential energy savings and greenhouse gas reductions, as well as potential cost impacts, from the implementation of a BEPS policy in DC We then examine the role of BEPS in a carbon neutrality strategy, how BEPS savings iterate over time, and what additional existing building improvements will be driven by the gravitational pull of new building codes on median performance. The paper highlights the benefits and limitations of such data-driven approaches to support policy decisions. Finally, we will review ongoing BEPS implementation, including expected policy directions, critical supportive programs, and lessons learned to date.
Bergfeld, Katie↗
Providencia Island High-Level Power System Capacity Expansion Analyses [Slides]
Results of a high level cost-benefit analysis using HOMER Pro software are presented for Providencia Island, Colombia. The analysis focuses on integrating solar photovoltaics (PV) and a battery energy storage system (BESS) into an existing diesel-only remote power system. The analysis uses fuel costs and discount rates provided by the stakeholders and NREL-derived capital cost estimates.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Lawrence, Massachusetts, Residential Building Efficiency and Electrification Analysis [Slides]
As part of the Communities Local Energy Action Program (CLEAP), the Lawrence Stakeholders Coalition (LSC) is interested in assessing and understanding the potential for and pathways to electrification for the City of Lawrence. The LSC's main questions are: What is the impact of various electrification packages on residential electricity bills and what types of buildings should the LSC target for electrification plus weatherization packages? This technical assistance, using ResStock tool modeling, aims to assist the Coalition's electrification and energy burden reduction planning by: 1. Providing cross-cutting data on housing stock characteristics, energy burden characteristics, fuel types, energy consumption, and system efficiency; and 2. Providing information on upgrade package costs, emissions reduction, and energy reductions by prioritized housing segment. The ResStock analysis presented here focuses on opportunities to reduce energy burden, energy consumption, and energy bills for single family homes, multifamily buildings, and mobile homes.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Reliability-Informed Economic and Energy Evaluation for Bi-Level Design for Remanufacturing: A Case Study of Transmission and Hydraulic Manifold
Abstract Design for remanufacturing (DfRem) is one attractive strategy that encourages the reuse of a product and extends the product's life cycle. Traditional design processes often only consider product reliability at an early design stage. However, from the perspective of environmental sustainability, it is becoming increasingly important to evaluate the long-term economic and environmental impacts of design decisions during early-stage design. We propose a bi-level DfRem framework consisting of system-level reusability allocation and component-level design tradeoff analysis, considering reliability and product warranty policy. First, a system-level reusability allocation problem aims at a theoretical exploration of the design space where all the components comprising the system are allocated certain reuse rates to achieve target energy savings with minimum cost. Following the theoretical exploration at the system level, a component-level analysis looks at practical design options for each component and trades-off between the overall cost and energy consumption for multiple remanufacturing cycles. Both levels of the framework require modeling component reuse for multiple remanufacturing cycles, which we achieve by using a branched power-law model that provides probabilistic scenarios of reusing the component or replacing it with a new part. We demonstrate the utility of this framework with the case study of an infinitely variable transmission (IVT) used by some agricultural machines manufactured by John Deere and show snapshots of a prototype software tool that we developed for easy use by designers.
Engineering↗
Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis [Web page]
Infrastructure is relied upon to support many basic functions of society. This summary provides information about Los Alamos National Laboratory's role to help counter natural and human-caused catastrophes on infrastructure.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Quantifying co-benefits of water quality policies: An integrated assessment model of land and nitrogen management
Due to the nature of nitrogen cycling, policies designed to address water quality concerns have the potential to provide benefits beyond the targeted water quality improvements. For example, actions to protect water quality by reducing nitrate leaching from agriculture also reduce emissions of nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gas. These positive effects, which are incidental to the regulation's intended target, are termed “co-benefits.” To quantify the co-benefits associated with reduced nitrate leaching, we integrate an economic model of farmer decision making with a model of terrestrial nitrogen cycling for the watershed surrounding Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, USA. Our modeling approach provides a framework that links air and water pollutants in an agri-environmental system and offers a direction for future studies. Our model results highlight the finding that the co-benefits from nitrous oxide abatement are substantial, and their inclusion increases the benefit–cost ratio of water quality policies. Consideration of these co-benefits has the potential to reverse the conclusions of benefit–cost analysis in the assessment of current water quality policies.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA Range Safety Annual Report 2007
As always, Range Safety has been involved in a number of exciting and challenging activities and events. Throughout the year, we have strived to meet our goal of protecting the public, the workforce, and property during range operations. During the past year, Range Safety was involved in the development, implementation, and support of range safety policy. Range Safety training curriculum development was completed this year and several courses were presented. Tailoring exercises concerning the Constellation Program were undertaken with representatives from the Constellation Program, the 45th Space Wing, and the Launch Constellation Range Safety Panel. Range Safety actively supported the Range Commanders Council and it subgroups and remained involved in updating policy related to flight safety systems and flight safety analysis. In addition, Range Safety supported the Space Shuttle Range Safety Panel and addressed policy concerning unmanned aircraft systems. Launch operations at Kennedy Space Center, the Eastern and Western ranges, Dryden Flight Research Center, and Wallops Flight Facility were addressed. Range Safety was also involved in the evaluation of a number of research and development efforts, including the space-based range (formerly STARS), the autonomous flight safety system, the enhanced flight termination system, and the joint advanced range safety system. Flight safety system challenges were evaluated. Range Safety's role in the Space Florida Customer Assistance Service Program for the Eastern Range was covered along with our support for the Space Florida Educational Balloon Release Program. We hope you have found the web-based format both accessible and easy to use. Anyone having questions or wishing to have an article included in the 2008 Range Safety Annual Report should contact Alan Dumont, the NASA Range Safety Program Manager located at the Kennedy Space Center, or Michael Dook at NASA Headquarters.
Dumont, Alan G.↗
NASA Applications and Lessons Learned in Reliability Engineering
Since the Shuttle Challenger accident in 1986, communities across NASA have been developing and extensively using quantitative reliability and risk assessment methods in their decision making process. This paper discusses several reliability engineering applications that NASA has used over the year to support the design, development, and operation of critical space flight hardware. Specifically, the paper discusses several reliability engineering applications used by NASA in areas such as risk management, inspection policies, components upgrades, reliability growth, integrated failure analysis, and physics based probabilistic engineering analysis. In each of these areas, the paper provides a brief discussion of a case study to demonstrate the value added and the criticality of reliability engineering in supporting NASA project and program decisions to fly safely. Examples of these case studies discussed are reliability based life limit extension of Shuttle Space Main Engine (SSME) hardware, Reliability based inspection policies for Auxiliary Power Unit (APU) turbine disc, probabilistic structural engineering analysis for reliability prediction of the SSME alternate turbo-pump development, impact of ET foam reliability on the Space Shuttle System risk, and reliability based Space Shuttle upgrade for safety. Special attention is given in this paper to the physics based probabilistic engineering analysis applications and their critical role in evaluating the reliability of NASA development hardware including their potential use in a research and technology development environment.
Safie, Fayssal M.↗
What Does Global Land Climate Look Like at 2°C Warming?
Constraining an increase in global mean temperature below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels is critical to limiting dangerous and cascading impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Understanding future climatic changes and their spatial heterogeneity at 2°C warming is thus important for policy makers to prepare actionable adaptation and mitigation plans by identifying where and to what extent lives and livelihoods will be impacted. This study uses the recently released NASA Earth eXchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) CMIP6 data to provide a broad overview of projected changes in six key climate variables and two climate impact indicators at a time when warming exceeds 2°C. Analysis of global mean temperature changes indicates the 2040s as the decade when most CMIP6 models reach 2°C warming with respect to a pre-industrial period (1850–1900). During the 2040s, we find that global mean temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, downwelling shortwave and longwave radiation, and wind speed over land under the high emission scenario are projected to change by +2.8°C, +22.4 mm/year, −0.73%, −2.23 , +15.9 W/m 2 , and −0.04 m/s, respectively. Many of the future changes are expected to exacerbate climate impacts including heat stress and fire danger. Our analysis shows geographic patterns of policy-relevant climatic changes, as parts of the globe will experience significant climate impacts even if the goal to keep warming below 2°C goal is achieved. Our results highlight the urgent need for further studies focused on identifying key hotspots and advancing region-specific actionable adaptation and mitigation plans.
GDDP↗
Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100)
Puerto Rico has committed to meeting its electricity needs with 100% renewable energy by 2050, along with realizing interim goals of 40% by 2025, 60% by 2040, the phaseout of coal-fired generation by 2028, and a 30% improvement in energy efficiency by 2040 as established in Puerto Rico Energy Public Policy Act (Act 17). To meet these goals and support widespread end-use electrification, Puerto Rico is exploring renewable energy and innovative technologies for energy storage, distributed generation, distribution control, electric vehicles, and energy efficient and responsive loads that can be deployed in each of Puerto Rico's cities and communities. Launched in February 2022, a two-year study entitled Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy (PR100) will perform a comprehensive analysis of stakeholder-driven pathways to Puerto Rico's clean energy future. This fact sheet describes the five activities this robust and objective energy analysis entails.
ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Bridging the Energy Future: The Role and Potential of Hydrogen Co-Firing with Natural Gas
In the transition toward sustainable energy systems, the co-firing of hydrogen (H2) with natural gas emerges as a critical technology for cleaner power generation. This study examines its benefits, including emissions reduction, enhanced efficiency, and compatibility with existing infrastructure. Concurrently, it addresses the inherent challenges, such as combustion dynamics, necessary infrastructure modifications, and economic considerations. Incorporating global case studies, the review explores recent advancements in hydrogen production and co-firing, evaluating their practicality and operational efficiency. It also provides a critical examination of the economic implications and societal acceptance, which are crucial for the adoption of hydrogen technologies. Moreover, the review investigates the synergy between hydrogen and renewable energy technologies, assessing potential impacts on energy policy and regulation. Ultimately, this comprehensive analysis underscores the essential role of hydrogen co-firing in the energy sector and advocates for a comprehensive strategy that synergizes technological progress, economic viability, regulatory support, and public engagement to promote a resilient and sustainable energy future.
hydrogen co-firing↗