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NASA NTRS1995

The striking near-infrared morphology of the inner region in M100

New optical and near-infrared (NIR) K-band images of the inner 3 kpc region of the nearby Virgo spiral M100 (NGC 4321) display remarkable morphological changes with wavelength. While in the optical the light is dominated by circumnuclear zone of enhanced star formation, the morphological features in the 2.2 micrometer image correspond to a newly discovered kiloparsec-size stellar bar and a pair of leading arms situated inside an ovally shaped region. Analysis of the K image confirms its symmetry: only a very small percentage of the flux, some 5%, is emitted in antisymmetric structures. This indicates that the overall morphology observed in the NIR is dominated by a global density wave. Making a first-order correction for the presence of localized dust extinction in the K light using the I-K image, we find that the observed leading arm morphology is not caused or enhanced but in fact slightly hidden by dust. Possible mechanisms responsible for the optical and NIR morphology are discussed, and tests are proposed to discriminate between them. Our dynamical conclusions are supported with an evolutionary stellar population model reproducing the observed optical and NIR colors in a number of star-forming zones. We argue that the observed morphology is compatible with the presence of a pair of inner Lindblad resonances in the region and show this explicitly in an accompanying paper by detailed numerical modeling. The phenomena observed in NGC 4321 may provide insight into physical process leading to central activity in galaxies.

Knapen, J. H.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Searching for Optically Faint GEO Debris

We report on results from a search for optically faint debris (defined as R > 20th magnitude, or smaller than 10 cm assuming an albedo of 0.175)) at geosynchronous orbit (GEO) using the 6.5-m Magellan telescope "Walter Baade" at Las Campanas Observatory in Chile. Our goal is to characterize the brightness distribution of debris to the faintest limiting magnitude possible. Our data was obtained during 6 hours of observing time during the photometric nights of 26 and 27 March 2011 with the IMACS f/2 instrument, which has a field of view (fov) of 0.5 degrees in diameter. All observations were obtained through a Sloan r filter, and calibrated by observations of Landolt standard stars. Our primary objective was to search for optically faint objects from one of the few known fragmentations at GEO: the Titan 3C Transtage (1968-081) fragmentation in 1992. Eight debris pieces and the parent rocket body are in the Space Surveillance Network public catalog. We successfully tracked two cataloged pieces of Titan debris with the 6.5-m telescope, followed by a survey for unknown objects on similar orbits but with different mean anomalies. To establish the bright end of the debris population, calibrated observations were acquired on the same field centers, telescope rates, and time period with a similar filter on the 0.6-m MODEST (Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope), located 100 km to the south of Magellan at Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory, Chile. We will show the calibrated brightness distributions from both telescopes, and compare the observed brightness distributions with that predicted for various population models of debris of different sizes.

Seitzer, Patrick↗

NASA NTRS2014

Wide-Field Hubble Space Telescope Observations of the Globular Cluster System in NGC 1399*

We present a comprehensive high spatial resolution imaging study of globular clusters (GCs) in NGC 1399, thecentral giant elliptical cD galaxy in the Fornax galaxy cluster, conducted with the Advanced Camera for Surveys(ACS) aboard theHubble Space Telescope(HST).Using a novel technique to construct drizzled point-spreadfunction libraries for HSTACS data, we accurately determine the fidelity of GC structural parameter measurementsfrom detailed artificial star cluster experiments and show the superior robustness of the GC half-light radius,rh,compared with other GC structural parameters, such as King core and tidal radius. The measurement ofrhfor themajor fraction of the NGC 1399 GC system reveals a trend of increasingrhversus galactocentric distance,Rgal,out to about 10 kpc and a flat relation beyond. This trend is very similar for blue and red GCs, which are found tohave a mean size ratio ofrh,redrh,blue0.820.11 at all galactocentric radii from the core regions of the galaxyout to40 kpc. This suggests that the size difference between blue and red GCs is due to internal mechanismsrelated to the evolution of their constituent stellar populations. Modeling the mass density profile of NGC 1399shows that additional external dynamical mechanisms are required to limit the GC size in the galaxy halo regionstorh2 pc. We suggest that this may be realized by an exotic GC orbit distribution function, an extended darkmatter halo, andor tidal stress induced by the increased stochasticity in the dwarf halo substructure at largergalactocentric distances. We compare our results with the GCrhdistribution functions in various galaxies and findthat the fraction of extended GCs withrh5 pc is systematically larger in late-type galaxies compared with GCsystems in early-type galaxies. This is likely due to the dynamically more violent evolution of early-type galaxies.We match our GCrhmeasurements with radial velocity data from the literature and split the resulting sample at themedianrhvalue into compact and extended GCs. We find that compact GCs show a significantly smaller line-of-sight velocity dispersion,cmp22525 km s1, than their extended counterparts,ext31721 km s1.Considering the weaker statistical correlation in the GCrhcolor and the GCrhRgalrelations, the more significantGC sizedynamics relation appears to be astrophysically more relevant and hints at the dominant influence of theGC orbit distribution function on the evolution of GC structural parameters.

Hubble↗

NASA NTRS2015

Near-Earth Asteroids 2006 RH120 AND 2009 BD: Proxies for Maximally Accessible Objects?

NASA's Near-Earth Object Human Space Flight Accessible Targets Study (NHATS) has identified over 1,400 of the approximately 12,800 currently known near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) as more astrodynamically accessible, round-trip, than Mars. Hundreds of those approximately 1,400 NEAs can be visited round-trip for less change-in-velocity than the lunar surface, and dozens can be visited round-trip for less change-in-velocity than low lunar orbit. How accessible might the millions of undiscovered NEAs be? We probe that question by investigating the hypothesis that NEAs 2006 RH120 and 2009 BD are proxies for the most accessible NEAs we would expect to find, and describing possible future NEA population model studies.

Trajectory Optimization↗

NASA NTRS2016

Local starburst galaxies and their descendants. Statistics from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey

Despite strong interest in the starburst phenomenon in extragalactic astronomy, the concept remains ill-defined. Here we use a strict definition of starburst to examine the statistical properties of starburst galaxies in the local universe. We also seek to establish links between starburst galaxies, post-starburst (hereafter postburst) galaxies, and active galaxies. Data were selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey DR7. We applied a novel method of treating dust attenuation and derive star formation rates, ages, and stellar masses assuming a two-component stellar population model. Dynamical masses are calculated from the width of the H-alpha line. These masses agree excellently with the photometric masses. The mass (gas+stars) range is approximately 10( exp 9) - 10(exp 11.5) solar mass. As a selection criterion for starburst galaxies, we use, the birthrate parameter, b = SFR/SFR, requiring that b is greater than 3. For postburst galaxies, we use, the equivalent width of Hdelta in absorption with the criterion EW (sub Hdelta_abs) is greater than 6 A. Results. We find that only 1% of star-forming galaxies are starburst galaxies. They contribute 3-6% to the stellar production and are therefore unimportant for the local star formation activity. The median starburst age is 70 Myr roughly independent of mass, indicating that star formation is mainly regulated by local feedback processes. The b-parameter strongly depends on burst age. Values close to b = 60 are found at ages approximately 10 Myr, while almost no starbursts are found at ages greater than 1 Gyr. The median baryonic burst mass fraction of sub-L galaxies is 5% and decreases slowly towards high masses. The median mass fraction of the recent burst in the postburst sample is 5-10%. A smaller fraction of the postburst galaxies, however, originates in non-bursting galaxies. The age-mass distribution of the postburst progenitors (with mass fractions is greater than 3%) is bimodal with a break at logM(solar mass ) 10.6, above which the ages are doubled. The starburst and postburst luminosity functions (LFs) follow each other closely until M(sub r ) (is) approximately -21, when active galactic nuclei (AGNs) begin to dominate. The postburst LF continues to follow the AGN LF, while starbursts become less significant. This suggests that the number of luminous starbursts is underestimated by about one dex at high luminosities, because of having large amounts of dust and/or being outshone by an AGN. It also indicates that the starburst phase preceded the AGN phase. Finally, we look at the conditions for global gas outflow caused by stellar feedback and find that massive starburst galaxies are susceptible to such outflows.

Statistical distributions↗

NASA NTRS2017

Mapping Application for Penguin Populations and Projected Dynamics (MAPPPD): Data and Tools for Dynamic Management and Decision Support

The Mapping Application for Penguin Populations and Projected Dynamics (MAPPPD) is a web-based, open access, decision-support tool designed to assist scientists, non-governmental organizations and policy-makers working to meet the management objectives as set forth by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) and other components of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) (that is, Consultative Meetings and the ATS Committee on Environmental Protection). MAPPPD was designed specifically to complement existing efforts such as the CCAMLR Ecosystem Monitoring Program (CEMP) and the ATS site guidelines for visitors. The database underlying MAPPPD includes all publicly available (published and unpublished) count data on emperor, gentoo, Adelie) and chinstrap penguins in Antarctica. Penguin population models are used to assimilate available data into estimates of abundance for each site and year.Results are easily aggregated across multiple sites to obtain abundance estimates over any user-defined area of interest. A front end web interface located at www.penguinmap.com provides free and ready access to the most recent count and modelled data, and can act as a facilitator for data transfer between scientists and Antarctic stakeholders to help inform management decisions for the continent.

Humphries, G. R. W.↗

NASA NTRS2020

GW190412: Observation of a binary-black-hole coalescence with asymmetric masses

We report the observation of gravitational waves from a binary-black-hole coalescence during the first two weeks of LIGO’s and Virgo’s third observing run. The signal was recorded on April 12, 2019 at05∶30∶44 UTC with a network signal-to-noise ratio of 19. The binary is different from observations during the first two observing runs most notably due to its asymmetric masses: a∼30M⊙black hole merged with a ∼8M⊙black hole companion. The more massive black hole rotated with a dimensionless spin magnitude between 0.22 and 0.60 (90% probability). Asymmetric systems are predicted to emit gravitational waves with stronger contributions from higher multipoles, and indeed we find strong evidence for gravitational radiation beyond the leading quadrupolar order in the observed signal. A suite of tests performed onGW190412 indicates consistency with Einstein’s general theory of relativity. While the mass ratio of this system differs from all previous detections, we show that it is consistent with the population model of stellar binary black holes inferred from the first two observing runs.

R. Abbott↗

NASA NTRS2021

Population Properties of Compact Objects from the Second LIGO-Virgo Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog

We report on the population of 47 compact binary mergers detected with a false-alarm rate of <1yr^(−1) in the second LIGO–Virgo Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog. We observe several characteristics of the merging binary black hole (BBH) population not discernible until now. First, the primary mass spectrum contains structure beyond a power law with a sharp high-mass cutoff; it is more consistent with a broken power law with a break at 39.7^(+20.3)(-9.1)M or a power law with a Gaussian feature peaking at 33.1^(+4.0)(-5.6)M (90% credible interval). While the primary mass distribution must extend to ~65M or beyond, only 2.9^(+3.5)(-1.7)M% of systems have primary masses greater than 45M. Second, we find that a fraction of BBH systems have component spins misaligned with the orbital angular momentum, giving rise to precession of the orbital plane. Moreover, 12% to 44% of BBH systems have spins tilted by more than 90°, giving rise to a negative effective inspiral spin parameter, χeff. Under the assumption that such systems can only be formed by dynamical interactions, we infer that between 25% and 93% of BBHs with nonvanishing |χeff| > 0.01 are dynamically assembled. Third, we estimate merger rates, finding RBBH = 23.9^(+14.3)(-8.6) Gpc^(-3) yr^(-1) for BBHs and RBNS = 320^(+490)(-240) Gpc^(-3) yr^(-1) for binary neutron stars. We find that the BBH rate likely increases with redshift (85% credibility) but not faster than the star formation rate (86% credibility). Additionally, we examine recent exceptional events in the context of our population models, finding that the asymmetric masses of GW190412 and the high component masses of GW190521 are consistent with our models, but the low secondary mass of GW190814 makes it an outlier.

R Abbott↗

DOE OSTI2025

Interactive Rotated Object Detection for Novel Class Detection in Remotely Sensed Imagery

In this paper we propose IRTR-DETR an Interactive and Real-Time Rotated DEtection TRansformer that extends IRTDETR to predict rotated bounding boxes. IRTR-DETR maintains the Human-In-The-Loop (HIL) workflow of IRTDETR but introduces rotation-aware heads for improved detection of objects with arbitrary orientations. Similarly to IRTDETR IRTR-DETR can be trained with a small labeled sample set in an interactive setting but we show that it can also be pretrained on related but not identical data--such as a building damage dataset--before being applied to tasks like identifying buildings under construction. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on the publicly available Tiny-DOTA and xBD dataset as well as two study-cases on proprietary datasets of greenhouses and houses under construction ("waffle homes"). Detecting greenhouses is highly relevant in the context of damage assessment while "waffle homes" aid understanding typical floorplans and building codes in different areas both thereby supporting population modeling emergency response and policy planning. Our method outperforms the state of the art in interactive rotated object detection on the Tiny-DOTA dataset by 5.7 percent and improves upon the non interactive RTDETR by 7.85 to 19.39 percent (depending on the number of provided samples) while maintaining its real-time efficiency.

Burges, Marvin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000312690769)↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Machine Learning Assisted Development of a Model for the Populations of Convective and Stratiform Clouds

Abstract Traditional parameterizations of the interaction between convection and the environment have relied on an assumption that the slowly varying large‐scale environment is in statistical equilibrium with a large number of small and short‐lived convective clouds. They fail to capture nonequilibrium transitions such as the diurnal cycle and the formation of mesoscale convective systems as well as observed precipitation statistics and extremes. Informed by analysis of radar observations, cloud‐permitting model simulation, theory, and machine learning, this work presents a new stochastic cloud population dynamics model for characterizing the interactions between convective and stratiform clouds, with the goal of informing the representation of these interactions in global climate models. Fifteen wet seasons of precipitating cloud observations by a C‐band radar at Darwin, Australia are fed into a machine learning algorithm to obtain transition functions that close a set of coupled equations relating large‐scale forcing, mass flux, the convective cell size distribution, and the stratiform area. Under realistic large‐scale forcing, the derived transition functions show that, on the one hand, interactions with stratiform clouds act to dampen the variability in the size and number of convective cells and therefore in the convective mass flux. On the other, for a given convective area fraction, a larger number of smaller cells is more favorable for the growth of stratiform area than a smaller number of larger cells. The combination of these two factors gives rise to solutions with a few convective cells embedded in a large stratiform area, reminiscent of mesoscale convective systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AMMPER: Agent-based Model for Microbial Populations Exposed to Radiation

Exposure of microbial populations to galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) in the deep-space radiation environment may lead to intracellular damage that compromises the ability of cells to repair and replicate. While simulation programs of deep-space radiation do exist, they focus primarily on single-cell damage, rather than population-wide effects. In this work, a new application and graphical user interface, Agent-Based Model for Microbial Populations Exposed to Radiation (AMMPER) is presented, which simulates the effects of proton-based GCR on Saccharomyces cerevisiae population growth. AMMPER consists of a 50x50x50 µm simulation space, analogous to an aqueous culture medium with non-limiting nutrient and pH buffering, in a microwell plate or microfluidic culture card. This model utilizes Relativistic Ion Tracks (RITRACKS) to create detailed track structures of the radiation traversals. AMMPER then calculates the radiation dose present at each cell, and subsequently determines the damage (chromosomal aberrations, oxidative stress, etc.) and resulting loss of cell viability from both primary and secondary radiative effects. Through implementing cell replication, repair, damage, and death, the effect of radiation exposure on the population growth can be determined. With AMMPER, long-duration effects of the deep space environment on entire populations can be determined and used to assess the feasibility of sustaining life in space.

Amrita Singh↗

NASA NTRS1981

Modeling a beaver population on the Prescott Peninsula, Massachusetts: Feasibility of LANDSAT as an input

A preliminary dynamic model of beaver spatial distribution and population growth was developed. The feasibility of locating beaver ponds on LANDSAT digital tapes, and of using this information to provide initial conditions of beaver spatial distribution for the model, and to validate model predictions is discussed. The techniques used to identify beaver ponds on LANDSAT are described.

Finn, J. T.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Terra-Populus v0.1: A Python Library for LandScan High-Definition Population Analysis and Modeling

The terra-populus library is designed for use by the LandScan HD technical team, offering a streamlined set of tools for generating and updating LandScan HD datasets from foundational building-level data, referred to as 'molecules,' provided by the building-level attribution team. This document serves as the primary technical documentation for terra-populus. Version 0.1 of the library includes the core modeling components necessary for LandScan HD production. It enables the generation of the LandScan HD Baseline dataset as well as corresponding confidence measures for the occupancy rates used. Parameters have been included for incorporating damaged building indicators and changes in population, to faciliate the creation of rapid updates for LandScan HD. Future iterations of terra-populus will introduce tools for creating a confidence index, and quantifying and propagating uncertainty, facilitating the creation of probabilistic LandScan HD outputs. This report provides an overview of the tools available in the library and the corresponding code implementations. One of the key advancements implemented in terra-populus is a redefinition of the atomic modeling unit for LandScan HD. Traditionally, the LandScan HD vector analytical framework has generated population estimates at the building sub-component (molecule) level. However, terra-populus adopts a building-level modeling approach. This shift is an operational decision aimed at aligning LandScan HD outputs with confidence measures, which are computed and validated at the building level (confidence measures are not included in this version of terra-populus, aside from those associated with the occupancy rates). Additional advancements to the LandScan HD modeling, as implemented by terra-populus, include a minimum population value parameter and an auto assignment of building floor counts. The population minimum value was implemented to prevent buildings and subsequent LandScan HD pixels that contained small values that may not rasterize in production. An 'auto' value has been included as a method for dealing with buildings lacking floor count information, where it is the average floor count of all other buildings with a residential building use type tag. The logic behind this is to remain consistent with the current logic employed for dealing with building use type null instances, where a null use type is defaulted to residential since it is the most common building type. The auto logic is intended to apply the most common building floor count of the most common type of buildings. The tools provided in terra-populus represent a significant step forward in improving the efficiency, reproducibility, and transparency of the LandScan HD modeling process. As the library evolves, it will continue to serve as a foundational resource for high-resolution population modeling.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

NASA NTRS2010

Modeling of LEO Orbital Debris Populations in Centimeter and Millimeter Size Regimes

The building of the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, whether ORDEM2000 or its recently updated version ORDEM2010, uses as its foundation a number of model debris populations, each truncated at a minimum object-size ranging from 10 micron to 1 m. This paper discusses the development of the ORDEM2010 model debris populations in LEO (low Earth orbit), focusing on centimeter (smaller than 10 cm) and millimeter size regimes. Primary data sets used in the statistical derivation of the cm- and mm-size model populations are from the Haystack radar operated in a staring mode. Unlike cataloged objects of sizes greater than approximately 10 cm, ground-based radars monitor smaller-size debris only in a statistical manner instead of tracking every piece. The mono-static Haystack radar can detect debris as small as approximately 5 mm at moderate LEO altitudes. Estimation of millimeter debris populations (for objects smaller than approximately 6 mm) rests largely on Goldstone radar measurements. The bi-static Goldstone radar can detect 2- to 3-mm objects. The modeling of the cm- and mm-debris populations follows the general approach to developing other ORDEM2010-required model populations for various components and types of debris. It relies on appropriate reference populations to provide necessary prior information on the orbital structures and other important characteristics of the debris objects. NASA's LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris (LEGEND) model is capable of furnishing such reference populations in the desired size range. A Bayesian statistical inference process, commonly adopted in ORDEM2010 model-population derivations, changes a priori distribution into a posteriori distribution and thus refines the reference populations in terms of data. This paper describes key elements and major steps in the statistical derivations of the cm- and mm-size debris populations and presents results. Due to lack of data for near 1-mm sizes, the model populations of 1- to 3.16-mm objects are an empirical extension from larger debris. The extension takes into account the results of micro-debris (from 10 micron to 1 mm) population modeling that is based on shuttle impact data, in the hope of making a smooth transition between micron and millimeter size regimes. This paper also includes a brief discussion on issues and potential future work concerning the analysis and interpretation of Goldstone radar data.

Xu, Y.-L.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Efficient Scalable Contact Network Generation from Population Data

Modeling the contacts among a population is critical to understanding the dynamics of a disease outbreak. Contact networks, where nodes are individuals and edges are contacts among them, are used to represent these complex individual-level interactions. In this work, we are given the daily activity schedules of an urban population that represent the activity location and time of individuals in a population during a single twenty four hour period over multiple days. Using collocation to determine contact between individuals, our goal is to extract hourly contact networks from large-scale activity data. We improve upon the existing adjacency matrix-based method by implementing our custom sparse matrix multiplication algorithm. Starting with a Python implementation, we achieve a 1600x speed up in the computation with a fast custom designed sparse matrix multiplier algorithm implemented in the C++ language. This work is central to future parallel designs of the problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Decentralized Approach for Modeling Organized Convection Based on Thermal Populations on Microgrids

Abstract In this study, a spectral model for convective transport is coupled to a thermal population model on a two‐dimensional horizontal “microgrid,” covering the typical gridbox size of general circulation models. The goal is to explore new ways of representing impacts of spatial organization in cumulus cloud fields. The thermals are considered the smallest building block of convection, with thermal life cycle and movement represented through binomial functions. Thermals interact through two simple rules, reflecting pulsating growth and environmental deformation. Long‐lived thermal clusters thus form on the microgrid, exhibiting scale growth and spacing that represent simple forms of spatial organization and memory. Size distributions of cluster number are diagnosed from the microgrid through an online clustering algorithm, and provided as input to a spectral multiplume eddy‐diffusivity mass flux scheme. This yields a decentralized transport system, in that the thermal clusters acting as independent but interacting nodes that carry information about spatial structure. The main objectives of this study are (a) to seek proof of concept of this approach, and (b) to gain insight into impacts of spatial organization on convective transport. Single‐column model experiments demonstrate satisfactory skill in reproducing two observed cases of continental shallow convection. Metrics expressing self‐organization and spatial organization match well with large‐eddy simulation results. We find that in this coupled system, spatial organization impacts convective transport primarily through the scale break in the size distribution of cluster number. The rooting of saturated plumes in the subcloud mixed layer plays a key role in this process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2010

Optimized O'Neill/Glaser Model for Human Population of Space and its Impact on Survival Probabilities

Two contemporary issues foretell a shift from our historical Earth based industrial economy and habitation to a solar system based society. The first is the limits to Earth's carrying capacity, that is the maximum number of people that the Earth can support before a catastrophic impact to the health of the planet and human species occurs. The simple example of carrying capacity is that of a bacterial colony in a Petri dish with a limited amount of nutrient. The colony experiences exponential population growth until the carrying capacity is reached after which catastrophic depopulation often results. Estimates of the Earth s carrying capacity vary between 14 and 40 billion people. Although at current population growth rates we may have over a century before we reach Earth s carrying limit our influence on climate and resources on the planetary scale is becoming scientifically established. The second issue is the exponential growth of knowledge and technological power. The exponential growth of technology interacts with the exponential growth of population in a manner that is unique to a highly intelligent species. Thus, the predicted consequences (world famines etc.) of the limits to growth have been largely avoided due to technological advances. However, at the mid twentieth century a critical coincidence occurred in these two trends humanity obtained the technological ability to extinguish life on the planetary scale (by nuclear, chemical, biological means) and attained the ability to expand human life beyond Earth. This paper examines an optimized O Neill/Glaser model (O Neill 1975; Curreri 2007; Detweiler and Curreri 2008) for the economic human population of space. Critical to this model is the utilization of extraterrestrial resources, solar power and spaced based labor. A simple statistical analysis is then performed which predicts the robustness of a single planet based technological society versus that of multiple world (independent habitats) society.

Curreri, Peter A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Optimized O'Neill/Glaser Model for Human Population of Space and its Impact on Survival Probabilities

Two contemporary issues foretell a shift from our historical Earth based industrial economy and habitation to a solar system based society. The first is the limits to Earth s carrying capacity, that is the maximum number of people that the Earth can support before a catastrophic impact to the health of the planet and human species occurs. The simple example of carrying capacity is that of a bacterial colony in a Petri dish with a limited amount of nutrient. The colony experiences exponential population growth until the carrying capacity is reached after which catastrophic depopulation often results. Estimates of the Earth s carrying capacity vary between 14 and 40 billion people. Although at current population growth rates we may have over a century before we reach Earth s carrying limit our influence on climate and resources on the planetary scale is becoming scientifically established. The second issue is the exponential growth of knowledge and technological power. The exponential growth of technology interacts with the exponential growth of population in a manner that is unique to a highly intelligent species. Thus, the predicted consequences (world famines etc.) of the limits to growth have been largely avoided due to technological advances. However, at the mid twentieth century a critical coincidence occurred in these two trends humanity obtained the technological ability to extinguish life on the planetary scale (by nuclear, chemical, biological means) and attained the ability to expand human life beyond Earth. This paper examines an optimized O Neill/Glaser model (O Neill 1975; Curreri 2007; Detweiler and Curreri 2008) for the economic human population of space. Critical to this model is the utilization of extraterrestrial resources, solar power and spaced based labor. A simple statistical analysis is then performed which predicts the robustness of a single planet based technological society versus that of multiple world (independent habitats) society.

Curreri, Peter A.↗