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At least 163 records · Page 9

Fate of supernova progenitors in massive binary systems

ABSTRACT How massive stars end their lives depends on the core mass, core angular momentum, and hydrogen envelopes at death. However, these key physical facets of stellar evolution can be severely affected by binary interactions. In turn, the effectiveness of binary interactions itself varies greatly depending on the initial conditions of the binaries, making the situation much more complex. We investigate systematically how binary interactions influence core–collapse progenitors and their fates. Binary evolution simulations are performed to survey the parameter space of supernova progenitors in solar metallicity binary systems and to delineate major evolutionary paths. We first study fixed binary mass ratios ($q=M_2/M_1$ = 0.5, 0.7, and 0.9) to elucidate the impacts of initial mass and initial separation on the outcomes, treating separately Type Ibc supernova, Type II supernova, accretion-induced collapse (AIC), rapidly rotating supernova (Ibc-R), black hole formation, and long gamma ray burst (long GRB). We then conduct 12 binary population synthesis model calculations, varying the initial condition distributions and binary evolution parameters, to estimate various supernova fractions. We obtain a Milky Way supernova rate $R_{\rm SN} = (1.78$–$2.47) \times 10^{-2} \, {\rm yr}^{-1}$ which is consistent with observations. We find the rates of AIC, Ibc-R, and long GRB to be $\sim 1/100$ the rate of regular supernovae. Our estimated long GRB rates are higher than the observed long GRB rate and close to the low luminosity GRB rate, although care must be taken considering our models are computed with solar metallicity. Furthering binary modelling and improving the inputs one by one will enable more detailed studies of these and other transients associated with massive stars.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Correcting for Selection Biases in the Determination of the Hubble Constant from Time-Delay Cosmography

The time delay between multiple images of strongly lensed quasars has been used to infer the Hubble constant. The primary systematic uncertainty for time-delay cosmography is the mass-sheet transform (MST), which preserves the lensing observables while altering the inferred ⁠H 0 . The TDCOSMO collaboration used velocity dispersion measurements of lensed quasars and lensed galaxies to infer that mass sheets are present, which decrease the inferred H 0 by 8 per cent. Here, we test the assumption that the density profiles of galaxy–galaxy and galaxy–quasar lenses are the same. We use a composite star-plus-dark-matter mass profile for the parent deflector population and model the selection function for galaxy–galaxy and galaxy–quasar lenses. We find that a power-law density profile with an MST is a good approximation to a two-component mass profile around the Einstein radius, but we find that galaxy–galaxy lenses have systematically higher mass-sheet components than galaxy–quasar lenses. For individual systems, λ int correlates with the ratio of the half-light radius and Einstein radius of the lens. By propagating these results through the TDCOSMO hierarchical inference code, we find that H 0 is lowered by a further 3 per cent. Using a more recent measurement of velocity dispersions and our fiducial model for selection biases, we infer H 0 = 66 ± 4 (stat) ± 1 (model sys) ± 2 (measurement sys) km s -1 Mpc -1 for the TDCOSMO plus SLACS data set. The first residual systematic error is due to plausible alternative choices in modelling the selection function, and the second is an estimate of the remaining systematic error in the measurement of velocity dispersions for SLACS lenses. Accurate time-delay cosmography requires precise velocity dispersion measurements and accurate calibration of selection biases.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Impact of dark matter on tidal signatures in neutron star mergers with the Einstein Telescope

If dark matter (DM) accumulates inside neutron stars (NS), it changes their internal structure and causes a shift of the tidal deformability from the value predicted by the dense-matter equation of state (EOS). In principle, this shift could be observable in the gravitational-wave (GW) signal of binary neutron star (BNS) mergers. We investigate the effect of fermionic, noninteracting DM when observing a large number of GW events from DM-admixed BNSs with the precision of the proposed Einstein telescope (ET). Specifically, we study the impact on the recovery of the baryonic EOS and whether DM properties can be constrained. For this purpose, we create event catalogs of BNS mock events with DM fraction up to 1%, from which we reconstruct the posterior uncertainties with the Fisher matrix approach. Using this data, we perform joint Bayesian inference on the baryonic EOS, DM particle mass, and DM particle fraction in each event. Here, our results reveal that when falsely ignoring DM effects, the EOS posterior is biased toward softer EOSs, though the offset is rather small. Further, we find that within our assumptions of our DM model and population, ET will likely not be able to test the presence of DM in BNSs, even when combining many events and adding Cosmic Explorer (CE) to the next-generation detector network. Likewise, the potential constraints on the DM particle mass will remain weak because of degeneracies with the fraction and EOS.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Smart Preprocessing & Robust Integration Emulator

To achieve the desired particle size of biomass feedstocks during preprocessing for trouble-free handling and conversion to produce biofuels and bioproducts, the raw materials must undergo a crucial milling process. The particle size of biomass plays a critical role in subsequent biofuel manufacturing, where a larger area-to-volume ratio facilitates efficient synthesis while balancing the impact of moisture on biomass storage. To optimize biofuel production efficiency and overcome these challenges, it is imperative to accurately predict the particle size distribution (PSD) of the biomass in the design of efficient preprocessing systems. The population balance model (PBM), upon empirical calibration and validation, can provide rapid prediction of post-milling PSD of granular biomass. However, PSD has limitations related to mass conservation and the absence of moisture considerations. To overcome these drawbacks, a deep learning model called the enhanced deep neural operator (DNO+) is implemented in the code. This model not only retains the capabilities of the PBM in handling complex mapping functions but also incorporates additional factors influencing the system. By considering various experimental conditions such as sieve size and moisture content, the trained DNO+ model can effectively predict the PSD after milling for any given feed PSD. To further reduce the reliance on experimental data, the PBM is integrated into the DNO+ model, resulting in a physics-informed DNO+ (PIDNO+). The PIDNO+ model addresses the non-conservation of quality exhibited by the PBM while inheriting the advantages of the DNO+ model in considering multiple influencing factors. Moreover, the PIDNO+ model significantly reduces the amount of data required for model training. Both deep learning models, i.e., DNO+ and PIDNO+, are excellent in predictive performance, offering swift and accurate machine learning-based predictions. The use of this code that contains these models will assist in guiding the proper milling equipment selection and operational conditions to achieve the desired biomass particle sizes, ensuring the efficiency of subsequent biofuel and bioproduct production processes.

Xia, Yidong [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idah↗

Particle scale impacts on deconstruction energy of pine residues

The goal of this Case Study was to quantify the impacts of variable moisture and ash on hammer mill throughput and energy consumption and on generation of fines that are not able to be fed to conversion, as compared to a status quo Base Case system. Also considered was convertible carbon content (minimum carbon specification) and maximum ash content and the delivered feedstock cost impacts of not being able to feed residue not meeting both specifications to the conversion reactor. Laboratory data on the impacts of input particle size and moisture content on the exit particle size were received from FCIC Subtask 5.2 from their single particle impact population balance modeling study. Additional throughput and energy consumption data were obtained from FCIC Subtask 5.2 for the same grinder with a 6 mm screen in place. These data were utilized to develop the necessary response surface equations to perform throughput analysis using discrete event simulation. Because the ash contents in the separated fines had not been analyzed in the laboratory at the time of the model runs, we chose to assume that the ash distributed proportionally with total mass into the overs and unders in the disk screen following grinding. Key takeaways from this Case Study are that it is significantly more cost effective to hammer mill the residue prior to drying, even though the grinder throughput is lower and energy consumption is higher versus drying first before grinding. An effect of dry grinding versus high moisture grinding is the production of higher amounts of fines during dry grinding, leading to significantly more of the ground feedstock being rejected by conversion for being below a minimum particle size. With wet grinding the system is still able to produce more preprocessed feedstock meeting the minimum particle size specification even though the instantaneous throughput is lower than for the case of grinding dry feedstock. Additionally, even without the higher fines production from dry grinding, the status quo would still be more costly than wet grinding because the material is rejected after the drying energy has already been input for the dry grinding case. Finally, significant reductions in drying energy are obtained by drying after grinding, and those reductions are of far greater magnitude than the grinding energy increase.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Synthesizing Stellar Populations in South Pole Telescope Galaxy Clusters. I. Ages of Quiescent Member Galaxies at 0.3 < $\textit{z}$ < 1.4

Using stellar population synthesis models to infer star formation histories (SFHs), we analyze photometry and spectroscopy of a large sample of quiescent galaxies that are members of Sunyaev–Zel'dovich (SZ)-selected galaxy clusters across a wide range of redshifts. We calculate stellar masses and mass-weighted ages for 837 quiescent cluster members at 0.3 < $\textit{z}$ < 1.4 using rest-frame optical spectra and the Python-based Prospector framework, from 61 clusters in the SPT-GMOS Spectroscopic Survey (0.3 < $\textit{z}$ < 0.9) and three clusters in the SPT Hi-z cluster sample (1.25 < $\textit{z}$ < 1.4). We analyze spectra of subpopulations divided into bins of redshift, stellar mass, cluster mass, and velocity-radius phase-space location, as well as by creating composite spectra of quiescent member galaxies. We find that quiescent galaxies in our data set sample a diversity of SFHs, with a median formation redshift (corresponding to the lookback time from the redshift of observation to when a galaxy forms 50% of its mass, $t_{50}$) of $\textit{z}$ = 2.8 ± 0.5, which is similar to or marginally higher than that of massive quiescent field and cluster galaxy studies. We also report median age–stellar mass relations for the full sample (age of the universe at $t_{50}$ (Gyr) = 2.52 (±0.04)–1.66 (±0.12) log$_{10}(M/10^{11}M_⊙$)) and recover downsizing trends across stellar mass; we find that massive galaxies in our cluster sample form on aggregate ~0.75 Gyr earlier than lower-mass galaxies. We also find marginally steeper age–mass relations at high redshifts, and report a bigger difference in formation redshifts across stellar mass for fixed environment, relative to formation redshifts across environment for fixed stellar mass.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

COOL-LAMPS. II. Characterizing the Size and Star Formation History of a Bright Strongly Lensed Early-type Galaxy at Redshift 1.02

We present COOL J1323+0343, an early-type galaxy at z = 1.0153 ± 0.0006, strongly lensed by a cluster of galaxies at z = 0.353 ± 0.001. This object was originally imaged by DECaLS and noted as a gravitational lens by COOL-LAMPS, a collaboration initiated to find strong-lensing systems in recent public optical imaging data, and confirmed with follow-up data. With ground-based grzH imaging and optical spectroscopy from the Las Campanas Observatory and the Nordic Optical Telescope, we derive a stellar mass, metallicity, and star formation history from stellar-population synthesis modeling. The lens modeling implies a total magnification, summed over the three images in the arc, of μ ~ 113. The stellar mass in the source plane is M * ~ 10.64 M ⊙ and the 1σ upper limit on the star formation rate (SFR) in the source plane is SFR ~ 3.75 × 10 -2 M ⊙ yr -1 (log sSFR = -12.1 yr -1 ) in the youngest two age bins (0–100 Myr), closest to the epoch of observation. Our measurements place COOL J1323+0343 below the characteristic mass of the stellar mass function, making it an especially compelling target that could help clarify how intermediate-mass quiescent galaxies evolve. We reconstruct COOL J1323+0343 in the source plane and fit its light profile. This object is below the expected size evolution of an early-type galaxy at this mass with an effective radius r e ~ 0.5 kpc. This extraordinarily magnified and bright lensed early-type galaxy offers an exciting opportunity to study the morphology and star formation history of an intermediate-mass early-type galaxy in detail at z ~ 1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Demographics, Stellar Populations, and Star Formation Histories of Fast Radio Burst Host Galaxies: Implications for the Progenitors

We present a comprehensive catalog of observations and stellar population properties for 23 highly secure host galaxies of fast radio bursts (FRBs). Our sample comprises 6 repeating FRBs and 17 apparent nonrepeaters. We present 82 new photometric and 8 new spectroscopic observations of these hosts. Using stellar population synthesis modeling and employing nonparametric star formation histories (SFHs), we find that FRB hosts have a median stellar mass of ≈10 9.9 M ⊙ , mass-weighted age ≈5.1 Gyr, and ongoing star formation rate ≈1.3 M ⊙ yr -1 but span wide ranges in all properties. Classifying the hosts by degree of star formation, we find that 87% (20 of 23 hosts) are star-forming, two are transitioning, and one is quiescent. The majority trace the star-forming main sequence of galaxies, but at least three FRBs in our sample originate in less-active environments (two nonrepeaters and one repeater). Across all modeled properties, we find no statistically significant distinction between the hosts of repeaters and nonrepeaters. However, the hosts of repeating FRBs generally extend to lower stellar masses, and the hosts of nonrepeaters arise in more optically luminous galaxies. While four of the galaxies with the clearest and most prolonged rises in their SFHs all host repeating FRBs, demonstrating heightened star formation activity in the last ≲100 Myr, one nonrepeating host shows this SFH as well. Our results support progenitor models with short delay channels (i.e., magnetars formed via core-collapse supernova) for most FRBs, but the presence of some FRBs in less-active environments suggests a fraction form through more delayed channels.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Abundances and Transients from Neutron Star–White Dwarf Mergers

Abstract We systematically investigate the mergers of neutron star–white dwarf binaries from beginning to end, with a focus on the properties of the inflows and outflows in accretion disks and their electromagnetic emissions. Using population synthesis models, we determine a subset of these binaries in which the white dwarf companion undergoes unstable mass transfer and complete tidal disruption, forming a large accretion disk around the neutron star. The material evolves according to a one-dimensional advection-dominated accretion-disk model with nuclear burning, neutrino emissions, and disk-surface wind ejection. The extreme dynamics of the entire process have proven difficult to analyze, and thus currently, the properties are poorly understood. The outflows from the mergers are iron- and nickel-rich, giving rise to optical and infrared emissions powered by the decay of the radioactive iron-type isotopes, calculated via the SuperNu light-curve code. We find these systems capable of powering bright, yet short-lived, optical transients with the potential to power gamma-ray bursts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Charging, aggregation, and electrostatic dispersion of radioactive and nonradioactive particles in the atmosphere

Electrostatic dispersion can significantly impact the microphysical behavior of charged particles and ions until reaching zero space charge. However, although radioactive particles can be strongly charged in air, the influence of electrostatic dispersion has been neglected in understanding their behavior. This study is aimed at investigating the time evolution of the charge and size distributions of radioactive and nonradioactive particles in air and developing simple approaches for applications. With processes involving charging, aggregation, and electrostatic dispersion, a comprehensive population balance model (PBM) has been developed to examine particle charge/size distribution dynamics. It is shown that compared to nonradioactive particles, the charge and size distributions of radioactive particles may evolve differently with time because radioactivity and electrostatic dispersion can significantly affect the charging and aggregation kinetics of the particles. It is found that, after the Fukushima accident, background aerosols in the pathway of radioactive plumes might be highly charged due to ionizing radiation, suggesting that radiation fields may strongly influence in situ measurements of charged atmospheric particles. The comprehensive PBM is simplified, and then the verification and application of the simplified PBMs are discussed. This study provides useful insight into how radioactivity can affect the dynamic behavior of particles in atmospheric systems including radiation sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Chemical clocks: using otolith geochemistry to enhance estimation of age and growth of white hake (Urophycis tenuis)

The white hake (Urophycis tenuis) is a groundfish distributed throughout the Gulf of Maine. Catch advice is based on stock assessments done with age-based population dynamics models; however, otolith aging is challenging because of unclear growth increments. To address this concern, we compared the consistency of aging with counts of visual annuli to that of aging with cycles of elemental concentrations measured by using laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. We tested the hypothesis that oscillations in both environmental conditions and internal physiology through time influence uptake of elements during otolith mineralization. Concentrations of manganese, in comparison with those of the other investigated trace elements (magnesium, strontium, and barium), had the most promising correlation with visual growth increments (~100% age agreement, ±1 year), offering an additional tool to enhance increment identification. In our examination of 550 otoliths collected during 2007–2021, we found that white hake lived a maximum of 10.3 years and exhibited sexual dimorphism in maximum length and age. By using generated von Bertalanffy growth functions, L(t)=110(1–e–0.113(t+0.45)) for males and L(t)=140(1–e–0.113(t–0.30)) for females (where L(t) is length at time t), size and age at maturity were calculated for males (37.4 cm in total length (TL), 3.3 years) and females (47.4 cm TL, 4.2 years). These results demonstrate that otolith geochemistry can be used to improve the accuracy and precision of the estimation of fish age and maturity, even for challenging species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Particle Scale Impacts on Deconstruction Energy of Pine Residues

The goal of this Case Study was to quantify the impacts of variable moisture and ash on hammer mill throughput and energy consumption and on generation of fines that are not able to be fed to conversion, as compared to a status quo Base Case system. Also considered was convertible carbon content (minimum carbon specification) and maximum ash content and the delivered feedstock cost impacts of not being able to feed residue not meeting both specifications to the conversion reactor. Laboratory data on the impacts of input particle size and moisture content on the exit particle size were received from FCIC Subtask 5.2: Preprocessing, High Temperature Conversion Preprocessing from their single particle impact population balance modeling study (Tiasha Bhattacharjee, INL). Additional throughput and energy consumption data were obtained from FCIC Subtask 5.2 (Jordan Klinger, INL) for the same grinder with a 6 mm screen in place. These data were utilized to develop the necessary response surface equations to perform throughput analysis using discrete event simulation. Because the ash contents in the separated fines had not been analyzed in the laboratory at the time of the model runs, we chose to assume that the ash distributed proportionally with total mass into the overs and unders in the disk screen following grinding.

energy consumption↗

LandScan Mosaic

The LandScan program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), in collaboration with the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), continues to deliver the most accurate and up to date global, high resolution gridded population data. Additionally, the latest advancements in the LandScan HD methodology led to reduced latency in development of rapid updates for geopolitical events. With momentum towards reporting more up to date population estimates, feedback from the user community expressed interest in reporting population estimates in ranges - whether to express a level of uncertainty or confirm to leadership and stakeholders the modeled data are estimates. Building upon the need to understand uncertainty or confidence in the modeled data and report ranges at the global scale, LandScan Mosaic was developed. LandScan Mosaic represents the next generation of high-resolution population modeling, building upon the established success of previous LandScan HD iterations. While LandScan HD employed a deterministic big data fusion approach, LandScan Mosaic enhances this methodology by integrating advanced machine learning techniques to impute missing, yet crucial, population model parameters. This advancement allows for probabilistic modeling of building occupancy and population distribution, incorporating uncertainty quantification through Monte Carlo sampling methods. By combining big data fusion with machine learning-driven imputation and stochastic modeling, LandScan Mosaic provides a more comprehensive and robust representation of population dynamics. LandScan Mosaic will be following the in the footsteps of its longstanding counterpart LandScan Global and releasing a global gridded population raster, at the 3-arcsecond resolution. This technical report documents the current stage of development of LandScan Mosaic, detailing the methodologies and data sources behind the modeling. Stakeholders are encouraged to use this document as an authoritative reference for insight into Mosaic’s data development processes. However, readers should note that LandScan Mosaic remains in a late-stage research and development phase, and methodologies and data presented here are subject to refinements ahead of the anticipated global release in Summer 2025. Feedback and inquiries from users and stakeholders are welcomed as we continue to refine and enhance this important population resource.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Optimized piston temperature control in gaseous fuel hydrogen engine system

Operating a gaseous fuel engine system includes combusting a mixture containing a gaseous hydrogen fuel and air in a cylinder of an engine, varying an operating parameter of the engine to which a crown surface temperature of a piston within the cylinder is responsive, and populating a temperature model based on a value of the varied operating parameter. Operating a gaseous fuel engine system further includes operating an oil spray apparatus to spray oil onto the piston based on the populated temperature model, and maintaining the crown surface temperature of the piston between a high temperature limit and a pre-ignition mitigation temperature limit based on the operating of the oil spray apparatus. Related apparatus and control logic is also disclosed.

Bochart, Michael R.↗

Daily Forecasting of Regional Epidemics of Coronavirus Disease with Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification, United States

To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policymaking, we formulated a mathematical model for coronavirus disease transmission within a regional population. This compartmental model accounts for quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, a nonexponentially distributed incubation period, asymptomatic persons, and mild and severe forms of symptomatic disease. We used Bayesian inference to calibrate region-specific models for consistency with daily reports of confirmed cases in the 15 most populous metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. We also quantified uncertainty in parameter estimates and forecasts. This online learning approach enables early identification of new trends despite considerable variability in case reporting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Evidence for Environmental Stripping in the Coma Cluster

The stability and longevity of globular clusters (GCs) make them effective tracers of the dynamical histories of galaxies in cluster environments. We construct a catalog of 23,351 GC candidates in the Coma Cluster using imaging from the Hubble Space Telescope Advanced Camera for Surveys. We cross-match galaxy data from the SIMBAD, NASA/IPAC Extragalactic Database, and Sloan Digital Sky Survey archives to construct a galaxy sample and model their GC populations using the GC specific frequency. We find several galaxies with significantly smaller GC populations than expected from their luminosities, consistent with either tidal stripping or intrinsically low formation efficiencies. We analyze annular and Voronoi GC radial profiles of the two brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs), NGC 4874 and NGC 4889, as well as other Coma galaxies. A two-dimensional Voronoi density mapping reveals GC populations with marked deficits compared to our modeled expectations, including galaxies in proximity to the BCGs (e.g., IC 3998, NGC 4875, and NGC 4876) and others distributed across Coma (e.g., NGC 4908, NGC 4883, and IC 4042). Azimuthal symmetry testing suggests past dynamical interactions may have truncated GC systems in some galaxies, while intrinsic deficits are probable in others (e.g., IC 3973, IC 3976, IC 4040, and IC 4045). Our results show that GC deficits exist in several Coma galaxies and that the two-dimensional density structure reveals environmental signatures, with asymmetry statistics consistent with directional stripping. These findings highlight GC populations as powerful probes of environmental processing and the dynamical histories of galaxies in dense cluster environments.

Pomeroy, Richard T. [University of Texas Rio Grand↗

Sequentially calibrating a Bayesian microsimulation model to incorporate new information and assumptions

Background: Microsimulation models are mathematical models that simulate event histories for individual members of a population. They are useful for policy decisions because they simulate a large number of individuals from an idealized population, with features that change over time, and the resulting event histories can be summarized to describe key population-level outcomes. Model calibration is the process of incorporating evidence into the model. Calibrated models can be used to make predictions about population trends in disease outcomes and effectiveness of interventions, but calibration can be challenging and computationally expensive. Methods: This paper develops a technique for sequentially updating models to take full advantage of earlier calibration results, to ultimately speed up the calibration process. A Bayesian approach to calibration is used because it combines different sources of evidence and enables uncertainty quantification which is appealing for decision-making. We develop this method in order to re-calibrate a microsimulation model for the natural history of colorectal cancer to include new targets that better inform the time from initiation of preclinical cancer to presentation with clinical cancer (sojourn time), because model exploration and validation revealed that more information was needed on sojourn time, and that the predicted percentage of patients with cancers detected via colonoscopy screening was too low. Results: The sequential approach to calibration was more efficient than recalibrating the model from scratch. Incorporating new information on the percentage of patients with cancers detected upon screening changed the estimated sojourn time parameters significantly, increasing the estimated mean sojourn time for cancers in the colon and rectum, providing results with more validity. Conclusions: A sequential approach to recalibration can be used to efficiently recalibrate a microsimulation model when new information becomes available that requires the original targets to be supplemented with additional targets.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Core Model Proposal #399: Updating the SSP Database (v3.0) (Population, GDP, and Labor Force) and Labor Productivity (KLEM)

This Core Model Proposal (CMP) updates the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) database to a recent version (v3.0.1; released in 2024) within GCAM. Currently, GCAM relies on socioeconomic drivers, including population, GDP, and labor force projections, from the original SSP database version released in 2013. These projections, provided by independent socioeconomic dynamic models (e.g., multi-dimensional demographic models and macroeconomic models of convergence growth), may need regular updates when (1) near-term observations become available and (2) there are updates and advancements in the socioeconomic modeling. Timely updates of socioeconomic drivers in global economic equilibrium and multisector dynamic modeling will ensure (1) alignment of historical years and near-term projections with observations, enhancing base year calibrations, including calibration parameters and labor productivity, and (2) improvement of long-term projections with updated socioeconomic drivers, which set the scale of the economy. This CMP updates the SSP data (from v2013 to v2024) and also fixes/reconciles historical GDP data sources in GCAM. We investigate the impact of these updates on GCAM projections.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗