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At least 163 records · Page 9

The magnitude-redshift relation in a realistic inhomogeneous universe

The light rays from a source are subject to a local inhomogeneous geometry generated by inhomogeneous matter distribution as well as the existence of collapsed objects. In this paper we investigate the effect of inhomogeneities and the existence of collapsed objects on the propagation of light rays and evaluate changes in the magnitude-redshift relation from the standard relationship found in a homogeneous FRW universe. We give the expression of the correlation function and the variance for the perturbation of apparent magnitude, and calculate it numerically by using the non-linear matter power spectrum. We use the lognormal probability distribution function for the density contrast and spherical collapse model to truncate the power spectrum in order to estimate the blocking effect by collapsed objects. We find that the uncertainties in Ω{sub m} is ∼ 0.02, and that of w is ∼ 0.04 . We also discuss a possible method to extract these effects from real data which contains intrinsic ambiguities associated with the absolute magnitude.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Fluctuations and intermittent poloidal transport in a simple toroidal plasma

In a simple magnetized toroidal plasma, fluctuation induced poloidal flux is found to be significant in magnitude. The probability distribution function of the fluctuation induced poloidal flux is observed to be strongly non-Gaussian in nature; however, in some cases, the distribution shows good agreement with the analytical form [Carreras et al., Phys. Plasmas 3, 2664 (1996)], assuming a coupling between the near Gaussian density and poloidal velocity fluctuations. The observed non-Gaussian nature of the fluctuation induced poloidal flux and other plasma parameters such as density and fluctuating poloidal velocity in this device is due to intermittent and bursty nature of poloidal transport. In the simple magnetized torus used here, such an intermittent fluctuation induced poloidal flux is found to play a crucial role in generating the poloidal flow.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Electron transfer statistics and thermal fluctuations in molecular junctions

We derive analytical expressions for probability distribution function (PDF) for electron transport in a simple model of quantum junction in presence of thermal fluctuations. Our approach is based on the large deviation theory combined with the generating function method. For large number of electrons transferred, the PDF is found to decay exponentially in the tails with different rates due to applied bias. This asymmetry in the PDF is related to the fluctuation theorem. Statistics of fluctuations are analyzed in terms of the Fano factor. Thermal fluctuations play a quantitative role in determining the statistics of electron transfer; they tend to suppress the average current while enhancing the fluctuations in particle transfer. This gives rise to both bunching and antibunching phenomena as determined by the Fano factor. The thermal fluctuations and shot noise compete with each other and determine the net (effective) statistics of particle transfer. Exact analytical expression is obtained for delay time distribution. The optimal values of the delay time between successive electron transfers can be lowered below the corresponding shot noise values by tuning the thermal effects.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

FARADAY ROTATION MEASURE DUE TO THE INTERGALACTIC MAGNETIC FIELD

Studying the nature and origin of the intergalactic magnetic field (IGMF) is an outstanding problem of cosmology. Measuring Faraday rotation would be a promising method to explore the IGMF in the large-scale structure (LSS) of the universe. We investigated the Faraday rotation measure (RM) due to the IGMF in filaments of galaxies using simulations for cosmological structure formation. We employed a model IGMF based on turbulence dynamo in the LSS of the universe, it has an average strength of (B) {approx} 10 nG and a coherence length of several x 100 h {sup -1} kpc in filaments. With the coherence length smaller than the path length, the inducement of RM would be a random walk process, and we found that the density peak along the line of sight dominantly contributes to the resultant RM. The root mean square of RM through filaments at the present universe was predicted to be {approx}1 rad m{sup -2}. In addition, we predicted that the probability distribution function of |RM| through filaments follows the lognormal distribution, and the power spectrum of RM in the local universe peaks at a scale of {approx}1 h {sup -1} Mpc. Our prediction of RM could be tested with future instruments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

FARADAY ROTATION MEASURE DUE TO THE INTERGALACTIC MAGNETIC FIELD. II. THE COSMOLOGICAL CONTRIBUTION

We investigate the Faraday rotation measure (RM) due to the intergalactic magnetic field (IGMF) through the cosmic web up to cosmological distances, using a model IGMF based on turbulence dynamo in the large-scale structure of the universe. By stacking the IGMF and gas density data up to redshift z = 5 and taking account of the redshift distribution of polarized background radio sources against which the RM is measured, we simulate the sky map of the RM. The contribution from galaxy clusters is subtracted from the map, based on several different criteria of X-ray brightness and temperature. Our findings are as follows. The distribution of RM for radio sources of different redshifts shows that the rms value increases with redshift and saturates for z {approx}> 1. The saturated value is RM{sub rms} {approx} several rad m{sup -2}. The probability distribution function of |RM| follows the lognormal distribution. The power spectrum has a broad plateau over the angular scale of {approx}1{sup 0}-0.{sup 0}1 with a peak around {approx}0.{sup 0}15. The second-order structure function has a flat profile in the angular separation of {approx}> 0.{sup 0}2. Our results could provide useful insights for surveys to explore the IGMF with the Square Kilometer Array (SKA) and upcoming SKA pathfinders.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

THE DENSITY VARIANCE-MACH NUMBER RELATION IN SUPERSONIC, ISOTHERMAL TURBULENCE

We examine the relation between the density variance and the mean-square Mach number in supersonic, isothermal turbulence, assumed in several recent analytic models of the star formation process. From a series of calculations of supersonic, hydrodynamic turbulence driven using purely solenoidal Fourier modes, we find that the 'standard' relationship between the variance in the log of density and the Mach number squared, i.e., {sigma}{sub ln}{sup 2}{sub {rho}/{bar {rho}}} = ln (1+b{sup 2}M{sup 2}), with b = 1/3, is a good fit to the numerical results in the supersonic regime up to at least Mach 20, similar to previous determinations at lower Mach numbers. While direct measurements of the variance in linear density are found to be severely underestimated by finite resolution effects, it is possible to infer the linear density variance via the assumption of log-normality in the probability distribution function. The inferred relationship with Mach number, consistent with {sigma}{sub {rho}/{bar {rho}}} approx. bM with b = 1/3, is, however, significantly shallower than observational determinations of the relationship in the Taurus Molecular Cloud and IC5146 (both consistent with b {approx} 0.5), implying that additional physics such as gravity is important in these clouds and/or that turbulent driving in the interstellar medium contains a significant compressive component. Magnetic fields are not found to change this picture significantly, in general reducing the measured variances and thus worsening the discrepancy with observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

TURBULENCE-GENERATED PROTON-SCALE STRUCTURES IN THE TERRESTRIAL MAGNETOSHEATH

Recent results of numerical magnetohydrodynamic simulations suggest that in collisionless space plasmas, turbulence can spontaneously generate thin current sheets. These coherent structures can partially explain the intermittency and the non-homogenous distribution of localized plasma heating in turbulence. In this Letter, Cluster multi-point observations are used to investigate the distribution of magnetic field discontinuities and the associated small-scale current sheets in the terrestrial magnetosheath downstream of a quasi-parallel bow shock. It is shown experimentally, for the first time, that the strongest turbulence-generated current sheets occupy the long tails of probability distribution functions associated with extremal values of magnetic field partial derivatives. During the analyzed one-hour time interval, about a hundred strong discontinuities, possibly proton-scale current sheets, were observed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evolution of in-medium baryon-baryon scattering cross sections and stiffness of dense nuclear matter from Bayesian analyses of FOPI proton-flow excitation functions

Within a Bayesian statistical framework using a Gaussian process (GP) emulator for an isospin-dependent Boltzmann-Uehling-Uhlenbeck (IBUU) transport model simulator of heavy-ion reactions with momentum-independent Skyrme interactions, we infer from the proton directed and elliptical flow in mid-central Au + Au reactions, measured at beam energies from 150 to 1200 MeV/nucleon by the FOPI Collaboration, the posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the in-medium baryon-baryon scattering cross section (BBSCS) modification factor 𝑋 (with respect to their free-space values) and the stiffness parameter 𝐾 of dense nuclear matter. Here, we find that the most probable value of 𝑋 evolves from around 0.7 to 1.0 as the beam energy 𝐸 beam /𝐴 increases. On the other hand, the posterior PDF⁡(𝐾) may have dual peaks having roughly the same height or extended shoulders at high 𝐾 values. More quantitatively, the posterior PDF⁡(𝐾) changes from having a major peak around 220 MeV, characterizing a soft EOS in the reaction at 𝐸 beam /𝐴 = 150 MeV, to one that peaks around 320 MeV, indicating a stiff EOS in the reactions at 𝐸 beam /𝐴 higher than about 600 MeV. The transition from soft to stiff happens in mid-central Au + Au reactions at beam energies around 250 MeV/nucleon in which 𝐾 = 220 MeV and 𝐾 = 320 MeV are approximately equally probable. Altogether, the FOPI proton-flow excitation function data indicate a gradual hardening of hot and dense nuclear matter as its density and temperature increase in reactions with higher beam energies.

nuclear matter↗

A New Approach to Reduce Uncertainties in Space Radiation Cancer Risk Predictions

The prediction of space radiation induced cancer risk carries large uncertainties with two of the largest uncertainties being radiation quality and dose-rate effects. In risk models the ratio of the quality factor (QF) to the dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factor (DDREF) parameter is used to scale organ doses for cosmic ray proton and high charge and energy (HZE) particles to a hazard rate for γ-rays derived from human epidemiology data. In previous work, particle track structure concepts were used to formulate a space radiation QF function that is dependent on particle charge number Z, and kinetic energy per atomic mass unit, E. QF uncertainties where represented by subjective probability distribution functions (PDF) for the three QF parameters that described its maximum value and shape parameters for Z and E dependences. Here I report on an analysis of a maximum QF parameter and its uncertainty using mouse tumor induction data. Because experimental data for risks at low doses of γ-rays are highly uncertain which impacts estimates of maximum values of relative biological effectiveness (RBE max ), I developed an alternate QF model, denoted QF γAcute where QFs are defined relative to higher acute γ-ray doses (0.5 to 3 Gy). The alternate model reduces the dependence of risk projections on the DDREF, however a DDREF is still needed for risk estimates for high-energy protons and other primary or secondary sparsely ionizing space radiation components. Risk projections (upper confidence levels (CL)) for space missions show a reduction of about 40% (CL~50%) using the QF γAcute model compared the QFs based on RBE max and about 25% (CL~35%) compared to previous estimates. In addition, I discuss how a possible qualitative difference leading to increased tumor lethality for HZE particles compared to low LET radiation and background tumors remains a large uncertainty in risk estimates.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Transport of cosmic-ray protons in intermittent heliospheric turbulence: Model and simulations

The transport of charged energetic particles in the presence of strong intermittent heliospheric turbulence is computationally analyzed based on known properties of the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind plasma at 1 astronomical unit. The turbulence is assumed to be static, composite, and quasi-three-dimensional with a varying energy distribution between a one-dimensional Alfvénic (slab) and a structured two-dimensional component. The spatial fluctuations of the turbulent magnetic field are modeled either as homogeneous with a Gaussian probability distribution function (PDF), or as intermittent on large and small scales with a q-Gaussian PDF. Simulations showed that energetic particle diffusion coefficients both parallel and perpendicular to the background magnetic field are significantly affected by intermittency in the turbulence. This effect is especially strong for parallel transport where for large-scale intermittency results show an extended phase of subdiffusive parallel transport during which cross-field transport diffusion dominates. The effects of intermittency are found to depend on particle rigidity and the fraction of slab energy in the turbulence, yielding a perpendicular to parallel mean free path ratio close to 1 for large-scale intermittency. Investigation of higher order transport moments (kurtosis) indicates that non-Gaussian statistical properties of the intermittent turbulent magnetic field are present in the parallel transport, especially for low rigidity particles at all times.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

RESOLVING THE ACTIVE GALACTIC NUCLEUS AND HOST EMISSION IN THE MID-INFRARED USING A MODEL-INDEPENDENT SPECTRAL DECOMPOSITION

We present results on the spectral decomposition of 118 Spitzer Infrared Spectrograph (IRS) spectra from local active galactic nuclei (AGNs) using a large set of Spitzer/IRS spectra as templates. The templates are themselves IRS spectra from extreme cases where a single physical component (stellar, interstellar, or AGN) completely dominates the integrated mid-infrared emission. We show that a linear combination of one template for each physical component reproduces the observed IRS spectra of AGN hosts with unprecedented fidelity for a template fitting method with no need to model extinction separately. We use full probability distribution functions to estimate expectation values and uncertainties for observables, and find that the decomposition results are robust against degeneracies. Furthermore, we compare the AGN spectra derived from the spectral decomposition with sub-arcsecond resolution nuclear photometry and spectroscopy from ground-based observations. We find that the AGN component derived from the decomposition closely matches the nuclear spectrum with a 1σ dispersion of 0.12 dex in luminosity and typical uncertainties of ∼0.19 in the spectral index and ∼0.1 in the silicate strength. We conclude that the emission from the host galaxy can be reliably removed from the IRS spectra of AGNs. This allows for unbiased studies of the AGN emission in intermediate- and high-redshift galaxies—currently inaccesible to ground-based observations—with archival Spitzer/IRS data and in the future with the Mid-InfraRed Instrument of the James Webb Space Telescope. The decomposition code and templates are available at http://denebola.org/ahc/deblendIRS.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

AUTOMATED SOLAR FLARE STATISTICS IN SOFT X-RAYS OVER 37 YEARS OF GOES OBSERVATIONS: THE INVARIANCE OF SELF-ORGANIZED CRITICALITY DURING THREE SOLAR CYCLES

We analyzed the soft X-ray light curves from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites over the last 37 years (1975-2011) and measured with an automated flare detection algorithm over 300,000 solar flare events (amounting to Almost-Equal-To 5 times higher sensitivity than the NOAA flare catalog). We find a power-law slope of {alpha}{sub F} = 1.98 {+-} 0.11 for the (background-subtracted) soft X-ray peak fluxes that is invariant through three solar cycles and agrees with the theoretical prediction {alpha}{sub F} = 2.0 of the fractal-diffusive self-organized criticality (FD-SOC) model. For the soft X-ray flare rise times, we find a power-law slope of {alpha}{sub T} = 2.02 {+-} 0.04 during solar cycle minima years, which is also consistent with the prediction {alpha}{sub T} = 2.0 of the FD-SOC model. During solar cycle maxima years, the power-law slope is steeper in the range of {alpha}{sub T} Almost-Equal-To 2.0-5.0, which can be modeled by a solar-cycle-dependent flare pile-up bias effect. These results corroborate the FD-SOC model, which predicts a power-law slope of {alpha}{sub E} = 1.5 for flare energies and thus rules out significant nanoflare heating. While the FD-SOC model predicts the probability distribution functions of spatio-temporal scaling laws of nonlinear energy dissipation processes, additional physical models are needed to derive the scaling laws between the geometric SOC parameters and the observed emissivity in different wavelength regimes, as we derive here for soft X-ray emission. The FD-SOC model also yields statistical probabilities for solar flare forecasting.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

THE NONLINEAR BIASING OF THE zCOSMOS GALAXIES UP TO z {approx} 1 FROM THE 10k SAMPLE

We use the zCOSMOS galaxy overdensity field to study the biasing of galaxies in the COSMOS field. By comparing the probability distribution function of the galaxy density contrast {delta}{sub g} to the lognormal approximation of the mass density contrast {delta}, we obtain the mean biasing function b({delta}, z, R) between the galaxy and matter overdensity fields and its second moments b-hat and b-tilde. Over the redshift interval 0.4 < z < 1 the conditional mean function ({delta}{sub g}|{delta}) = b({delta}, z, R){delta} is of a characteristic shape, requiring nonlinear biasing in the most overdense and underdense regions. Taking into account the uncertainties due to cosmic variance, we do not detect any significant evolution in the ({delta}{sub g}|{delta}) function, but we do detect a significant redshift evolution in the linear biasing parameter b-hat from 1.23 {+-} 0.11 at z {approx} 0.55 to 1.62 {+-} 0.14 at z {approx} 0.75, for a luminosity-complete sample of M{sub B} < -20 - z galaxies. The b-hat parameter does not change significantly with smoothing scale between 8 and 12 h{sup -1} Mpc, but increases systematically with luminosity (at 2{sigma}-3{sigma} significance between the M{sub B} < -20.5 - z and M{sub B} < -20 - z samples). The nonlinearity parameter b-tilde/b-hat is offset from unity by at most 2%, with an uncertainty of the same order. The b-tilde / b-hat parameter does not show any significant redshift evolution, dependence on the smoothing scale or on the luminosity. By matching the linear bias of galaxies to the halo bias, we infer that the M{sub B} < -20 - z galaxies reside in dark matter halos with a characteristic mass of about (2.6 - 5.6) x 10{sup 12} M{sub sun} with a small dependence on the adopted bias-mass relation. Our detailed error analysis and comparison with previous studies lead us to conclude that cosmic variance is the main contributor to the differences in the linear bias measured from different surveys. While our results support the general picture of biased galaxy formation up to z {approx} 1, the fine-tuning of the galaxy formation models is still limited by the restrictions of the current spectroscopic surveys at these redshifts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dynamical modeling of tidal streams

I present a new framework for modeling the dynamics of tidal streams. The framework consists of simple models for the initial action-angle distribution of tidal debris, which can be straightforwardly evolved forward in time. Taking advantage of the essentially one-dimensional nature of tidal streams, the transformation to position-velocity coordinates can be linearized and interpolated near a small number of points along the stream, thus allowing for efficient computations of a stream's properties in observable quantities. I illustrate how to calculate the stream's average location (its 'track') in different coordinate systems, how to quickly estimate the dispersion around its track, and how to draw mock stream data. As a generative model, this framework allows one to compute the full probability distribution function and marginalize over or condition it on certain phase-space dimensions as well as convolve it with observational uncertainties. This will be instrumental in proper data analysis of stream data. In addition to providing a computationally efficient practical tool for modeling the dynamics of tidal streams, the action-angle nature of the framework helps elucidate how the observed width of the stream relates to the velocity dispersion or mass of the progenitor, and how the progenitors of 'orphan' streams could be located. The practical usefulness of the proposed framework crucially depends on the ability to calculate action-angle variables for any orbit in any gravitational potential. A novel method for calculating actions, frequencies, and angles in any static potential using a single orbit integration is described in the Appendix.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Benchmarking PARTISN with Analog Monte Carlo: Moments of the Neutron Number and the Cumulative Fission Number Probability Distributions

The purpose of this report is to provide the reader with an understanding of how a Monte Carlo neutron transport code was written, developed, and evolved to calculate the probability distribution functions (PDFs) and their moments for the neutron number at a final time as well as the cumulative fission number, along with introducing several basic Monte Carlo concepts.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

PROPERTIES OF INTERSTELLAR TURBULENCE FROM GRADIENTS OF LINEAR POLARIZATION MAPS

Faraday rotation of linearly polarized radio signals provides a very sensitive probe of fluctuations in the interstellar magnetic field and ionized gas density resulting from magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence. We used a set of statistical tools to analyze images of the spatial gradient of linearly polarized radio emission (|{nabla}P|) for both observational data from a test image of the Southern Galactic Plane Survey (SGPS) and isothermal three-dimensional simulations of MHD turbulence. Visually, in both observations and simulations, a complex network of filamentary structures is seen. Our analysis shows that the filaments in |{nabla}P| can be produced both by interacting shocks and random fluctuations characterizing the non-differentiable field of MHD turbulence. The latter dominates for subsonic turbulence, while the former is only present in supersonic turbulence. We show that supersonic and subsonic turbulence exhibit different distributions as well as different morphologies in the maps of |{nabla}P|. Particularly, filaments produced by shocks show a characteristic 'double jump' profile at the sites of shock fronts resulting from delta function-like increases in the density and/or magnetic field, while those produced by subsonic turbulence show a single jump profile. In order to quantitatively characterize these differences, we use the topology tool known as the genus curve as well as the probability distribution function moments of the image distribution. We find that higher values for the moments correspond to cases of |{nabla}P| with larger sonic Mach numbers. The genus analysis of the supersonic simulations of |{nabla}P| reveals a 'swiss cheese' topology, while the subsonic cases have characteristics of a 'clump' topology. Based on the analysis of the genus and the higher order moments, the SGPS test region data have a distribution and morphology that match subsonic- to transonic-type turbulence, which confirms what is now expected for the warm ionized medium.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

SU-E-J-115: Using Markov Chain Modeling to Elucidate Patterns in Breast Cancer Metastasis Over Time and Space

Purpose: Traditionally, breast cancer metastasis is described as a process wherein cancer cells spread from the breast to multiple organ systems via hematogenous and lymphatic routes. Mapping organ specific patterns of cancer spread over time is essential to understanding metastatic progression. In order to better predict sites of metastases, here we demonstrate modeling of the patterned migration of metastasis. Methods: We reviewed the clinical history of 453 breast cancer patients from Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center who were non-metastatic at diagnosis but developed metastasis over time. We used the variables of organ site of metastases as well as time to create a Markov chain model of metastasis. We illustrate the probabilities of metastasis occurring at a given anatomic site together with the probability of spread to additional sites. Results: Based on the clinical histories of 453 breast cancer patients who developed metastasis, we have learned (i) how to create the Markov transition matrix governing the probabilities of cancer progression from site to site; (ii) how to create a systemic network diagram governing disease progression modeled as a random walk on a directed graph; (iii) how to classify metastatic sites as ‘sponges’ that tend to only receive cancer cells or ‘spreaders’ that receive and release them; (iv) how to model the time-scales of disease progression as a Weibull probability distribution function; (v) how to perform Monte Carlo simulations of disease progression; and (vi) how to interpret disease progression as an entropy-increasing stochastic process. Conclusion: Based on our modeling, metastatic spread may follow predictable pathways. Mapping metastasis not simply by organ site, but by function as either a ‘spreader’ or ‘sponge’ fundamentally reframes our understanding of metastatic processes. This model serves as a novel platform from which we may integrate the evolving genomic landscape that drives cancer metastasis. PS-OC Trans-Network Project Grant Award for “Data Assimilation and ensemble statistical forecasting methods applied to the MSKCC longitudinal metastatic breast cancer cohort.”.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Seismic Event Characterization Using Full Moment Tensors on the Hypersphere

Moment tensor solutions provide insights into the deformation that has occurred in the source region of a seismic event and are therefore of great value in identifying different types of seismic sources, such as when monitoring for underground nuclear tests. Despite this utility, inversion of waveforms recorded by seismometers for their full seismic moment tensor is not yet routine, and development of robust methods to classify events based on this information is in its infancy. Here, we assemble an inventory of 1405 full moment tensor solutions that include explosive, earthquake, and collapse events, and investigate the use of anisotropic probability distribution functions on the 5D hypersphere to discriminate between these sources. Using a Bayesian classifier, we obtain optimal success rates of 98.4% across all events and demonstrate that modification of the prior probabilities provides a natural way to alter the balance between not missing desirable events (such as explosions) versus misclassifying large numbers of undesired events (such as earthquakes). The approach is specifically designed to progress from traditional, bipolar event screening metrics to more generalized event identification across multiple types of seismic sources. Despite current databases containing insufficient numbers of events to definitively demonstrate at present, we also find intriguing evidence of subgroupings within individual source populations on the hypersphere, for example, between chemical and nuclear explosions, raising the potential possibility of discriminating between these event types in the future.

Geosciences↗