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Quantifying the impact of climate change on erosion - 20397

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is the owner of the Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC), a 1,351-ha (3,338-ac) site located approximately 48 km (30 mi) south of Buffalo, New York. In 1962, Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS) entered into Agreements with the Atomic Energy Commission and New York State to construct the first commercial reprocessing plant of nuclear fuel in the United States. NFS, a private company, built and operated the spent fuel reprocessing plant and waste disposal facilities, processing 640 Mg (metric tons, or 705 short tons) of spent nuclear fuel from 1966 to 1972 under an Atomic Energy Commission license. Nuclear fuel reprocessing operations ended in 1972 and never reopened, leaving behind radioactive and chemical wastes. Erosion can play an important role in the fate and transport of waste at sites where disposal of long-lived waste is anticipated. The statistical characterization of key processes related to erosion is essential to the understanding of site stability through time. One of the key processes governing erosion is extreme precipitation and it is critical that trends in the distribution of extreme precipitation events through time be represented. The evidence of climate change is increasingly well documented and projected impacts on extreme precipitation events should be incorporated in performance assessment studies when relevant. Not evaluating future climate states in a performance assessment is contradictory to good modeling practice. Specifically, excluding climate change limits development of modeling information that could aid in effective decision making. The current climate literature provides both observational evidence and climate model projections of climate trends and/or climate change in the late 20. and early 21. centuries for North America and the northeast United States. In this work, this information was used to assess the impacts of potential changes in climate on erosion processes. The goal was to understand how projections of future climate relate to the performance of the WNYNSC through time. In the first stage of this work multi-temporal historical aerial images were analyzed in conjunction with orthophotography and Lidar data to develop probability distributions for variables representing important erosion processes. The information from these analyses was then used in conjunction with simulated data from the West Valley Erosion Working Group (EWG). Analysis of EWG simulations provides estimates for the change in erosion rates through time that is driven by changes in climate. The time-varying rates of erosion change were applied to the historical aerial imagery data in order to inform time-varying rates of erosion that are driven by changes in climate. Ultimately, this process resulted in the identification of locations for features like gully heads using both the Lidar dataset and projection of the estimated location from the historical aerial photo under consideration back to the Lidar dataset. The distance between the estimate of the location from the historical image and that of the Lidar dataset was the estimated distance the feature has moved. This distance was then divided by the number of years between the Lidar dataset and the year of the historical aerial image of interest to get a rate of movement through time. This was done for several dozen points on each historical aerial image. The analyses from the EWG were used to characterize the relative impact of climate change on the erosion rates. This relative impact was quantified by comparing the LEM based estimates of erosion that were derived using historical climate data with LEM based estimates of erosion that were derived using projections of future climate. The relative increase in the erosion rates was then applied to the historical estimates of erosion derived from the analysis of the historical aerial imagery. This approach was used since the LEM-based estimated of the historical erosion rates from the past century have a bias towards underestimating erosion. This underestimation is hypothesized to be a consequence of an inability of the LEMs to account for the impacts of land-use change (i.e. deforestation) which had been shown to significantly increase erosion in similar Northern hardwood forest ecosystems. In summary, gully head retreat rate and gully widening rate were characterized using statistical probability distributions from the historical aerial image analysis. Simulated data from the EWG was used to estimate the climatically-driven changes in erosion rates through time. The changes through time from the EWG were applied to the gully head retreat rate and gully widening rate characterized using the historical aerial image analysis. This information can be used to inform PPA models to project future risks from a given site. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Low Carbon Technology Strategies: Hospital

This document includes steps that building owners and operators can implement to achieve smart, healthy, and low-carbon hospitals within their existing building portfolios. Hospitals typically include complex heating and cooling systems and specialty medical equipment.

analytics↗

MPACT Verification and Validation Manual (V.4.3)

As the VERA SQA plan requires, it is the responsibility of the University of Michigan (UM) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), as co-owners of MPACT, to ensure that verification and validation activities are performed and documented in a V&V manual with supporting publications and CASL technical reports which can be provided for reference and distribution within VERA. This document provides the current revision of the MPACT verification and validation (V&V) manual and describes the current state of MPACT V&V and updates the plans for future MPACT V&V activities. The following sections provide an overview of the V&V process used in MPACT, as well as a summary of the status of each component of V&V in the code.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

MPACT Verification and Validation Manual Version 4.4

As the VERA SQA plan requires, it is the responsibility of the University of Michigan (UM) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), as co-owners of MPACT, to ensure that verification and validation activities are performed and documented in a V&V manual with supporting publications and CASL technical reports which can be provided for reference and distribution within VERA. This document provides the current revision of the MPACT verification and validation (V&V) manual and describes the current state of MPACT V&V and updates the plans for future MPACT V&V activities. The following sections provide an overview of the V&V process used in MPACT, as well as a summary of the status of each component of V&V in the code.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Low Carbon Technology Strategies: Primary School

This document includes steps that building owners and operators can implement to achieve smart, healthy, and low-carbon primary schools within their existing building portfolios. Primary schools often use packaged rooftop units for heating, cooling, and ventilation.

analytics↗

National Modeling of Geothermal District Energy Systems with Ambient-Temperature Loops Using dGeo

Geothermal district energy systems (DES) with ambient-temperature loops, also known as thermal energy networks, are one option for decarbonizing space heating and cooling loads. Geothermal fifth-generation DES include an "ambient" temperature thermal loop that connects heat pumps at each building with thermal balancing sources such as geothermal borehole fields. Heating and cooling are provided via a water-source heat pump at each end-user. This project seeks to analyze the nationwide potential for ambient-temperature loop districts by creating a new module within the Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo). dGeo is an agent-based modeling tool for distributed geothermal resources; it can investigate potential on a nationwide or statewide scale using geospatial data for all 50 states and thermal demands for existing buildings. This process allows for high-level estimates of technical and economic potential for ambient-temperature loop districts across the United States. A lookup table was created using GHEDesigner to size borehole fields for different thermal loads and ground conditions experienced across the country. A cost and financing structure, along with incentives, were applied. Cost estimates include costs for the distribution network, borehole field installation and operation, and circulation pump operation, while savings are calculated based on energy bills for building owners (agents). This newly developed module can be used for assessing which areas of the country have the highest potential for agent benefits from ambient-temperature loop installation and assess the impact of future cost and price scenarios. Initial results for statewide analysis (for Vermont) and nationwide (for United States) are provided. Future work includes expanding the module to consider mixed residential and commercial districts as well as evaluating multiple cost scenarios.

ambient-temperature loop↗

The computer simulation of automobile use patterns for defining battery requirements for electric cars

The modeling process of a complex system, based on the calculation and optimization of the system parameters, is complicated in that some parameters can be expressed only as probability distributions. In the present paper, a Monte Carlo technique was used to determine the daily range requirements of an electric road vehicle in the United States from probability distributions of trip lengths, frequencies, and average annual mileage data. The analysis shows that a daily range of 82 miles meets to 95% of the car-owner requirements at all times with the exception of long vacation trips. Further, it is shown that the requirement of a daily range of 82 miles can be met by a (intermediate-level) battery technology characterized by an energy density of 30 to 50 Watt-hours per pound. Candidate batteries in this class are nickel-zinc, nickel-iron, and iron-air. These results imply that long-term research goals for battery systems should be focused on lower cost and longer service life, rather than on higher energy densities

Schwartz, H.-J.↗

HWMA RCRA Storage and Treatment Permit for the Material and Fuels Complex on the Idaho National Laboratory

Owners and operators of facilities that treat, store, and dispose of hazardous waste must obtain an operating permit required by Subtitle C of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). The operating permit for the Materials and Fuels Complex is the Hazardous Waste Management Act (HWMA)/RCRA Storage and Treatment Permit. The permit defines the conditions and requirements that apply to the treatment and storage of hazardous waste managed at the treatment, storage and disposal facilities (TSDF). The regulations governing the permitting process are found at 40 CFR Pa 124 and 270.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

ExMC Technology Watch

The Technology Watch (Tech Watch) project is directed by the NASA Human Research Programs (HRP) Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) element, and primarily focuses on ExMC technology gaps. The project coordinates the efforts of multiple NASA centers, including the Johnson Space Center (JSC), Glenn Research Center (GRC), Ames Research Center (ARC), and the Langley Research Center (LaRC). The objective of Tech Watch is to identify emerging, high-impact technologies that augment current NASA HRP technology development efforts. Identifying such technologies accelerates the development of medical care and research capabilities for the mitigation of potential health issues encountered during human space exploration missions. The aim of this process is to leverage technologies developed by academia, industry and other government agencies and to identify the effective utilization of NASA resources to maximize the HRP return on investment. The establishment of collaborations with these entities is beneficial to technology development, assessment and/or insertion, and advance NASAs goal to provide a safe and healthy environment for human exploration. In fiscal year 2013, the Tech Watch project maintained student project activity aimed at specific ExMC gaps, completed the gap report review cycle for all gaps through a maturated gap report review process, and revised the ExMC Tech Watch Sharepoint site for enhanced data content and organization. Through site visits, internships and promotions via aerospace journals, several student projects were initiated and completed this past year. Upon project completion, the students presented their results via telecom or WebEx to the ExMC Element as a whole. The upcoming year will continue to forge strategic alliances and student projects in the interest of technology and knowledge gap closure. Through the population of Sharepoint with technologies assessed by the gap owners, the database expansion will develop a more comprehensive technology set for each gap. By placing such data in Sharepoint, the gap report updates in fiscal year 2014 are anticipated to be streamlined since the evaluated technologies will be readily available to the gap owners in a sortable archive, and may be simply exported into the final gap report presentation.

Technology gaps↗

ExMC Technology Watch

The Technology Watch (Tech Watch) project is directed by the NASA Human Research Program's (HRP) Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) element, and primarily focuses on ExMC technology gaps. The project coordinates the efforts of multiple NASA centers, including the Johnson Space Center (JSC), Glenn Research Center (GRC), Ames Research Center (ARC), and the Langley Research Center (LaRC). The objective of Tech Watch is to identify emerging, high-impact technologies that augment current NASA HRP technology development efforts. Identifying such technologies accelerates the development of medical care and research capabilities for the mitigation of potential health issues encountered during human space exploration missions. The aim of this process is to leverage technologies developed by academia, industry and other government agencies and to identify the effective utilization of NASA resources to maximize the HRP return on investment. The establishment of collaborations with these entities is beneficial to technology development, assessment and/or insertion, and advance NASA's goal to provide a safe and healthy environment for human exploration. In fiscal year 2013, the Tech Watch project maintained student project activity aimed at specific ExMC gaps, completed the gap report review cycle for all gaps through a maturated gap report review process, and revised the ExMC Tech Watch Sharepoint site for enhanced data content and organization. Through site visits, internships and promotions via aerospace journals, several student projects were initiated and completed this past year. Upon project completion, the students presented their results via telecom or WebEx to the ExMC Element as a whole. The upcoming year will continue to forge strategic alliances and student projects in the interest of technology and knowledge gap closure. Through the population of Sharepoint with technologies assessed by the gap owners, the database expansion will develop a more comprehensive technology set for each gap. By placing such data in Sharepoint, the gap report updates in fiscal year 2014 are anticipated to be streamlined since the evaluated technologies will be readily available to the gap owners in a sortable archive, and may be simply exported into the final gap report presentation

Exploration Medical Capability↗

Markets and Economic Requirements for Fission Batteries and Other Nuclear Systems

Fission Batteries (FBs) are nuclear reactors defined by five characteristics which enable large-scale deployment: cost competitive, standardized sizes for economic mass production, easy installation and removal, secure and safe unattended operation with high reliability. FBs are not defined by technology or power level. Technical and market considerations suggest that most FBs will produce 20 to 30 MWt. This proceedings reports on the outcomes of two workshops that were held in January 2021 to better define markets and economic challenges for FBs. Three major markets were identified. The largest market is the industrial and commercial heat market. There are about 4000 industrial users (excluding utilities) that require more than one megawatt of heat. The number of customers versus size of heat demand was determined. In a low-carbon world there is the potential for many additional customers—including expanded biofuels production and district heat. The second market is for non-grid electricity. This includes co-generation plants that produce heat and electricity for a single customer. The third market is the maritime market with ~100,000 ships worldwide. In the United States, natural gas is the low-cost energy option today and will remain so unless constraints or taxes impact its use. If restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions, the FB competition includes natural gas with carbon capture, biofuels, hydrogen and grid electricity. Natural gas with carbon capture is not economically viable on a small scale. Biofuels may be expensive but may be the economically preferred option for locations with small energy demands of a few megawatts. Hydrogen is a potential competitor with many of the characteristics of natural gas. Grid electricity is not a competitive source of heat. For FBs to be economically competitive, the price of delivered heat must be $20-50/MWh ($6-15/million BTU). The economically competitive range for non-grid electricity is estimated at $70-100/MWh. These electricity prices are competitive with the retail prices of electricity in many parts of the United States for the customer. FBs are not expected to be competitive selling wholesale electricity to the grid. To achieve the aforementioned cost targets for heat and electricity markets, FB designers must (1) maximize the power output within the constraints of a FB (e.g., truck transportability, passive decay heat removal), (2) drastically reduce the size of onsite staff, (3) adopt core designs with low fuel costs (enrichment and fabrication), and (4) develop a system design that is efficiently manufactured in factories. The business case depends upon more than being just a replacement for natural gas. The largest incentives for adoption of FBs is where they create new markets and new sources of revenue. An example is the paper and pulp industry that burns biomass wastes to provide heat and electricity to make paper. An external heat source could meet the demand for heat and electricity by the paper process and enable converting waste biomass into liquid biofuels rather than burning to provide heat. Other markets, such as data centers, are driven by special energy requirements such as extreme reliability. Most customers are not in the energy business but need heat and electricity to produce a product—a manufactured good, education, retail sales (shopping malls), marine transport or some other product. As a consequence, there will be large incentives to lease rather than own FBs. Leasing avoids the regulatory challenges that remain with the owner of the FB. Leasing creates large incentives for FP standardization of sizes and transportability to maintain the value of the FB at the end of the lease—similar to the leasing of jet engines and aircraft. The economic constraints combined with technical constraints suggest competitive FBs will likely have outputs exceeding 10 MWt. There appear to be little incentives for very long-lived reactor cores because such machines require much larger inventories of fuel. Maintenance requirements and the options to provide technology updates may favor shorter lifetimes (~5 years). The assessment is that there is the potential for FBs to be economically viable and play a major role in global decarbonization in three markets: heat, non-grid electricity and maritime applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Low Carbon Technology Strategies: Stand-Alone Retail and Strip Mall

This document includes steps that building owners and operators can implement to achieve smart, healthy, and low-carbon retail buildings within their existing building portfolios. Stand-alone retail and strip malls often use packaged rooftop units for heating, cooling, and ventilation.

analytics↗

Overview of the Electrification of Transportation in Hawaii

This document is a summary of electric vehicle (EV) experiences in Hawaii. It is meant to be informative but does not present any new technical analysis except for the development of key lessons learned that could be applied in similar contexts. The electrification of transportation is essential for Hawaii's energy goal. An electrification of transportation strategy complements other energy policy goals, increases clean energy impacts, and provides customer value. By the end of 2020, there were over 12,000 EVs registered in Hawaii (about 1 percent of all cars). That number is expected to grow, based on the results from recent surveys and studies in Hawaii. Surveys pointed out the need for more charging stations, especially in places where people do business or park for long periods of the day. Participation in controlled charging programs should have attractive incentives since a majority of EV owners would not be willing to interrupt their EV charging for demand response. Various studies have confirmed the EV potential in Hawaii. For example, the JUMPSmart Maui demonstration project, a public-private partnership with Japan, helped to establish the EV charging station infrastructure in Maui and provided important information about charging behaviors. A critical backbone study commissioned by the utility recommended that 3,600 public chargers be installed by 2030 on the five islands, which confirms the need for infrastructure improvements expressed in earlier surveys. The process that emerged in Hawaii can be an example to other locations, which could heed the lessons from Hawaii's EV experiences: The importance of an overarching energy goal/objective based on a shared vision; planning and pilot projects; a strategic plan (roadmap) leveraging on initial experiences; evaluation of the effectiveness/success of actions; fine-tuning as needed; close regulatory oversight and stakeholder participation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A spark‐based big data analysis framework for real‐time sentiment prediction on streaming data

Summary There are many data sources that produce large volumes of data. The Big Data nature requires new distributed processing approaches to extract the valuable information. Real‐time sentiment analysis is one of the most demanding research areas that requires powerful Big Data analytics tools such as Spark. Prior literature survey work has shown that, though there are many conventional sentiment analysis researches, there are only few works realizing sentiment analysis in real time. One major point that affects the quality of real‐time sentiment analysis is the confidence of the generated data. In more clear terms, it is a valuable research question to determine whether the owner that generates sentiment is genuine or not. Since data generated by fake personalities may decrease accuracy of the outcome, a smart/intelligent service that can identify the source of data is one of the key points in the analysis. In this context, we include a fake account detection service to the proposed framework. Both sentiment analysis and fake account detection systems are trained and tested using Naïve Bayes model from Apache Spark's machine learning library. The developed system consists of four integrated software components, ie, (i) machine learning and streaming service for sentiment prediction, (ii) a Twitter streaming service to retrieve tweets, (iii) a Twitter fake account detection service to assess the owner of the retrieved tweet, and (iv) a real‐time reporting and dashboard component to visualize the results of sentiment analysis. The sentiment classification performances of the system for offline and real‐time modes are 86.77% and 80.93%, respectively.

Kılınç, Deniz↗

Economy analysis of second-life battery in wind power systems considering battery degradation in dynamic processes: Real case scenarios

Energy storage system plays an important role in modern power systems for mitigating the variation and intermittency of renewable energy sources. The Lithium-ion battery is currently the most widely used solution for energy storage system. However, its high cost is considered as one of the major barriers hampering the integration of renewable energy and the adoption of electric vehicles. Reusing electric vehicle batteries seems a promising solution to the aforementioned problem. Based on a dynamic degradation model of Lithium-ion batteries, this paper first compares the profits that second-life and fresh batteries can bring to the wind farm. Model predictive control is adopted to solve an hourly optimal wind scheduling problem and maximize the profit of wind farm owner. Here, the optimal size of battery is determined and then the comparison of second-life and fresh batteries is conducted taking the battery degradation, the profit of the wind farm owner, and various remaining capacities of battery into account. Two case studies in USA and Denmark are conducted and the analysis shows that given the current prices of wind energy and Lithium-ion batteries, reusing batteries is not worthwhile for the studied wind farms, but it may outperform fresh batteries in the future if the wind energy price decreases much faster than the battery price.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Closing the Loops on Solar Photovoltaics Modules: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach for the Study of Circular Economy Strategies

Solar photovoltaics (PV) installed capacity have grown exponentially since the early 2000s (average annual growth rate of 50%). With 4,700 GW projected installed capacity by 2050, the volume of PV panels waste is also expected to become substantial. Though renewables are a sine qua non to the establishment of a truly circular economy (CE), the issue arising from their end-of-life management needs to be resolved. The management of PV end-of-life also represent a singular opportunity to create value, from recovered valuable, rare or critical materials (e.g. silver, tellurium, indium). Moreover, the PV case illustrates some of the current barriers to CE; for instance, the need for a common definition of waste (PV are defined as e-waste in the European Union but as general waste in the United States) and potential loss of innovations' advantages (PV average efficiency has continuously grown the past 10 years). In this study, an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach is proposed to simulate PV end-of-life management in the United States. The model explores how the decisions of the various actors involved in handling PV waste affect the quantities of PV that are reused, recycled, or land-filled. In the model, manufacturers, residential, and nonresidential PV owners, installers, and recyclers are represented by agents while governmental policies and regulations are treated as exogenous variables. PV-market data are used to define agents' characteristics (e.g., installed PV capacities or producing costs). Agents' decision rules draw on the literature related to industrial symbiosis (IS) and peoples' waste behaviors as they appear as the most widely used model to implement CE principles at a meso level. Specifically, the concepts of mutual trust between IS actors and knowledge about the IS philosophy are yielded to define the agents' decision process. The primary outputs of the ABM are the costs and volume of waste associated with each end-of-life pathway. Preliminaries results indicate recycling of residential PV is affected by the cost, perceived difficulty of recycling behaviors, and social norms. Moreover, the type of network connecting agents and the initial recycling rate strongly influence results. The model also highlights the crucial role of recycling behavior adoption: in case of early failure of PV, recycled volumes increase by about 40%. This represents an additional 5.7 billion USD from potential recovered silver. Finally, although results for the PV case are presented here, the developed ABM aims at being a general tool for the study of CE strategies and the CE transition. Furthermore, steps of this research include extending the model to encompass circular economy strategies (e.g., design for recycling or lifetime extension) and validating its general architecture from various case studies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Scaling Energy Efficient Retrofits for Small Commercial Apartment Buildings

With support from the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Building Technologies Office (BTO), the International Center for Appropriate and Sustainable Technology (ICAST) recently completed a three-year cooperative agreement to scale energy efficiency retrofits (EER) on small multifamily (MF) buildings. ICAST EER strategies ranged from low-hanging “direct install” of measures such as LED lighting, low-flow showerheads and aerators, and smart thermostats to major strategies such as HVAC replacement with high-efficiency boilers or heat pumps. As feasible, some projects also included the addition of renewable energy sources such as photo voltaic (PV) solar. When ICAST began the BTO project, it operated in two states and oversaw EER at approximately 80 MF buildings per year. With assistance from BTO, ICAST has grown significantly and now has staff in six states with MF EER projects in another seven, and performed EER on 956 MF buildings. ). ICAST was able to successfully execute this project by 1) Improving viability and efficiency of its processes, 2) Launching two new services and 3) Creating an affiliate program. For the most part, ICAST focused on a specific type of MF property: naturally occurring affordable housing (NOAH), because it is a significantly underserved market within the hard-to-serve MF market. NOAHs are typically smaller properties (5 to 64 units), owned by small organizations or individual investors looking for positive cash flow. ICAST believes the NOAH market can be successfully served with a one-stop-shop approach that makes it easy, hassle-free, and cost-effective for owners to acquire green upgrades for their property(ies). With the assistance of BTO funding, ICAST successfully used the cited EER methods and strategies to scale-up its OSS approach to service a greater number of MF housing and expand into new geographies. Additionally, support from BTO helped ICAST create self-sustaining programs which will not need to rely on on-going funding.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Low Carbon Technology Strategies: Large Office

This document includes steps that building owners and operators can implement to achieve smart, healthy, and low-carbon large office buildings within their existing building portfolios. Large offices are typically over 50,000 square feet and often include complex heating and cooling systems.

analytics↗