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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9

Reliability‐based layout optimization in offshore wind energy systems

Abstract Existing methods for optimizing wind array layouts typically use power or cost objectives and rarely consider reliability‐based objectives. Component and system failure rates, however, are dependent on location‐specific wind conditions, are influenced by array layout and wake interactions, and have a direct and significant impact on capital costs, operational costs, and power production. Although wind power plant models exist that calculate wind loads with sufficient resolution to capture component loading dynamics from wind conditions, they are computationally expensive and thus not suitable for research applications requiring many evaluations, particularly optimization. This study describes the development of computationally efficient, reliability‐based layout optimization methods, enabling us to explore the relationship between component reliability and layout optimization. These methods include the surrogate modeling of the planet bearing life based on varying wind conditions simulated in FAST.Farm and the formulation of reliability‐based objectives based on failure cost and power production models. Through demonstration of this method, we explore how wind conditions, objective functions, and capacity density influence reliability‐based layout optimization. Results indicate that considering reliability alongside power production can reduce failure costs associated with replacement costs and downtime while maintaining or improving power production. Our conclusions highlight the opportunity for wind power plant developers to integrate reliability and operational expenditures alongside performance and capital expenditure objectives in plant design and development to improve plant performance and costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Modeling and analysis of synthetic liquid fuel production from CO 2 and nuclear energy using methanol-to-diesel process

Electrofuels (e-fuels) are synthetic fuels produced from carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and electricity for blending with or replacing petroleum fuels. Nuclear energy is an attractive energy feedstock for e-fuel production because of its low environmental footprint and its ability to provide steady heat and power essential for e-fuels production. We modeled and evaluated the cost and environmental footprint of e-fuels production in the distillate range for three nuclear power scales, 100, 500, and 1000 MWe, through methanol and olefins intermediates leveraging commercial or high technology readiness level (TRL) processes. Compared to the commonly studied e-fuels from Fischer Tropsch process that has a distillate yield of <70% with the rest being low value naphtha, the proposed process via methanol intermediate increases the product selectivity with distillate yield of 96% and only 4% naphtha. The modeled process has a carbon conversion ratio of 98%, and a process energy efficiency of 56% relative to the total equivalent nuclear electricity input. The e-fuel plant economics and GHG emissions were estimated by considering CO 2 collected from ethanol plants adjacent to nuclear power plants. The estimated minimum fuel selling prices (MFSP) of e-fuel is in the range of $5.7-$9.1/gal depending on e-fuel plant scale, electricity cost, and CO 2 transportation distance. The corresponding e-fuels life cycle GHG emissions is estimated in the range of 5-6 gCO 2 e/MJ of liquid fuel using the R&D Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (R&D GREET) model.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

Electrolyzers in the System Advisor Model (SAM): A Techno-Economic Potential Study

A technoeconomic analysis of grid to low temperature electrolysis (Grid-LTE), photovoltaic to low temperature electrolysis (PV-LTE), concentrating solar power to high temperature electrolysis (CSP-HTSE) and a concentrating solar power with PV to high temperature electrolysis (CSP-PV-HTSE) centralized hydrogen production systems are analyzed to assess the economics of system and to provide a baseline for comparing these technologies against hydrogen production cost targets. A framework integrating the system advisor model (SAM) and US Department of Energy hydrogen production models (H2A) is developed to assess these systems. The hydrogen levelized cost given current and future assumptions for technology cost and performance is evaluated at optimal system configurations. The framework described in this report integrates SAM with H2A electrolyzer technologies and provides analysts a detailed technoeconomic method to analyze concentrating and photovoltaic solar technologies to produce energy that are directly coupled to LTE and HTSEs that use that energy to split water into hydrogen and oxygen. The baseline hydrogen levelized cost (HLCs) for the GRID-LTE, PV-LTE, CSP-HTSE, and CSP-PV-HTSE systems in Daggett, CA are 2.82, 3.86, 3.68, and 2.90 $\$$USD 2016/kg H2 and 2.50, 2.13, 2.84, 2.15 $\$$USD 2016/kg H2 in the 2020 and 2050 scenarios respectively. To achieve the $\$$2/kg H2 target in locations with excellent solar resources, cost parameters values aligned with aggressive R&D targets will need to be achieved for all the systems configurations. In Daggett, PV costs of $\$$0.68 /Wac or moderate ATB PV CAPEX projections result in HLCs of $\$$2 /kg H2. Similarly for PV-MSALT-HTSE systems, $\$$0.60 /Wac result in $\$$2/kg H2. For the MSALT-HTSE systems, better than aggressive 2050 ATB salt tower CAPEX projections would be needed to reach $\$$2/kg H2. Molten salt tower capital costs of $\$$2400/kW would enable $\$$2/kg H2 in 2050.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Economic and biophysical limits to seaweed farming for climate change mitigation

Net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets are driving interest in opportunities for biomass-based negative emissions and bioenergy, including from marine sources such as seaweed. Yet the biophysical and economic limits to farming seaweed at scales relevant to the global carbon budget have not been assessed in detail. We use coupled seaweed growth and technoeconomic models to estimate the costs of global seaweed production and related climate benefits, systematically testing the relative importance of model parameters. Under our most optimistic assumptions, sinking farmed seaweed to the deep sea to sequester a gigaton of CO 2 per year costs as little as US$\$$480 per tCO 2 on average, while using farmed seaweed for products that avoid a gigaton of CO 2 -equivalent GHG emissions annually could return a profit of $\$$50 per tCO 2 -eq. However, these costs depend on low farming costs, high seaweed yields, and assumptions that almost all carbon in seaweed is removed from the atmosphere (that is, competition between phytoplankton and seaweed is negligible) and that seaweed products can displace products with substantial embodied non-CO 2 GHG emissions. Moreover, the gigaton-scale climate benefits we model would require farming very large areas (>90,000 km 2 )—a >30-fold increase in the area currently farmed. Our results therefore suggest that seaweed-based climate benefits may be feasible, but targeted research and demonstrations are needed to further reduce economic and biophysical uncertainties.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Projecting Future Colorado River Basin Water and Hydropower Operations

Drought, variable renewable energy (VRE) resources (primarily wind and photovoltaic technologies), and power markets can all impact hydropower plant operations. We analyze how these three factors collectively may potentially change the future operation and economics of federal dams and hydropower plants located in the Colorado River Basin (CRB). Federal CRB energy and capacity resources, including 4,200 MW of hydropower capacity, are marketed by Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) and sold through long-term Firm Electric Service (FES) contracts to entities located in 15 western and central States that serve millions of electricity consumers. The parameters of FES contracts allow a wide range of scheduling flexibility for FES customers. The FES customers will adjust the timing of energy delivery according to the changing water, power market, and VRE contribution level to the power grid. We simulate and project water and hydropower operations with two models: 1) reservoir operation and 2) power system operation (production cost) with various temporal granularity. We consider two sets of grid scenarios (one representing today's infrastructure, and one representing higher VRE contributions in 2036) and two sets of water scenarios (drought and normal hydrology). We modeled scenarios to understand the power market-energy price levels and patterns, FES customer scheduling, hydropower economics, WAPA finances and hydropower operation for various hydrologic conditions, and VRE contribution level to the power grid. The detailed modeling framework includes: (1) creating ensembles of CRB hydrologic and hydropower futures, (2) selecting representative futures, (3) simulation of FES customer contracts, (4) simulating western U.S. power grid economic scheduling and dispatch under two VRE contribution levels, utilizing information from modeling steps (1)-(4), (5) assessment of reservoir water and hydropower operation, and (6) comparing scenario operations and economics. Our study team comprising WAPA, and an interdisciplinary team of national labs will gain insight into how WAPA can prepare for and adapt its practices in response to an evolving U.S. power grid.

Colorado River↗

WISDEM® v3.4.1(Wind Plant Integrated System Design and Engineering Model) [SWR-14-05]

The Wind Plant Integrated System Design and Engineering Model (WISDEM®) is a set of models for assessing overall wind plant cost of energy (COE). The models use wind turbine and plant cost and energy production as well as financial models to estimate COE and other wind plant system attributes. WISDEM® is accessed through Python, is built using OpenMDAO, and uses several sub-models that are also implemented within OpenMDAO. These sub-models can be used independently but they are required to use the overall WISDEM® turbine design capability. Please install all of the pre-requisites prior to installing WISDEM® by following the directions below. For additional information about the NWTC effort in systems engineering that supports WISDEM® development, please visit the official NREL systems engineering for wind energy website. https://www.nlr.gov/wind/systems-engineering

Dykes, Katherine↗

WISDEM® v3.15.2 2024 (Wind-Plant Integrated System Design and Engineering Model) [SWR-14-05]

The Wind-Plant Integrated System Design and Engineering Model (WISDEM®) is a set of models for assessing overall wind plant cost of energy (COE). The models use wind turbine and plant cost and energy production as well as financial models to estimate COE and other wind plant system attributes. WISDEM® is accessed through Python, is built using OpenMDAO, and uses several sub-models that are also implemented within OpenMDAO. These sub-models can be used independently but they are required to use the overall WISDEM® turbine design capability. Please install all of the pre-requisites prior to installing WISDEM® by following the directions below. For additional information about the NWTC effort in systems engineering that supports WISDEM® development, please visit the official NREL systems engineering for wind energy website. https://www.nrel.gov/wind/systems-engineering.html

Dykes, Katherine↗

FECM/NETL Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model (UShWEM)

FECM/NETL Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model (UShWEM) is an Excel-based model that evaluates the economics of an unconventional shale well on a per-well and per-pad basis. The model calculates the net cash flow, internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), payout month and year, and breakeven price (for either oil- or gas-wells). The model can be used to estimate the economics of a well or pad over its lifetime (development through site reclamation) based on (1) the capital and operating costs associated with well/pad development and operations, (2) the revenue associated with oil, gas, and condensate production streams, and (3) accounting for relevant tax policies and asset depreciation applicable for oil and gas operations. The main input for the model is the completion design and production data. Key financial considerations in the model include oil, gas, and condensate market prices, tax-related settings, royalty rates, the discount rate, minimum economic hurdle (IRR) [if performing break-even analysis], and project contingency. The financial consideration can be adjusted to reflect the level of granularity the user requires as input when calculating the economics for a well or pad development. In addition, the model affords users the option to provide their user inputs for all cost categories considered. As a result, the model can be used to generate a multitude of scenario cases for sensitivity analysis of the various financial considerations, as well as production and cost profiles. To make this seamless, the model has the capability for key economic outputs to be exported in large batches through macros-enabled functions on its “Model Output Summary” and “Multi-Well Cost Analysis. The spreadsheet model includes macros and user-defined functions, so the user must enable Excel’s macro capability for the model to function correctly.

Sheriff, Alana↗

Revenue prediction for integrated renewable energy and energy storage system using machine learning techniques

Revenue estimation for integrated renewable energy and energy storage systems is important to support plant owners or operators’ decisions in battery sizing selection that leads to maximized financial performances. A common approach to optimizing revenues of a hybrid hydro and energy storage system is using mixed-integer linear programming (MILP). Although MILP models can provide accurate production cost estimations, they are typically very computationally expensive. To provide a fast yet accurate first-step information to hydropower plant owners or operators who consider integrating energy storage systems, we propose an innovative approach to predicting optimal revenues of an integrated energy generation and storage system. In this study, we examined the performance of two prediction techniques: Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and machine learning (ML) models developed based on artificial neural networks (ANN). Predictive equations and models are generated based on optimized solutions from a market participation optimization model, the Conventional Hydropower Energy and Environmental Resource System (CHEERS) model. The two predicting techniques reduce the computational time to evaluate annual revenue for one set of battery configurations from 3 h to 1 to 4 min per run while also being implementable with significantly less data. The model validation prediction errors of developed GAMs and ML models are generally below 5%; for model testing predictions, the ML models consistently outperform the regression equations in terms of root mean square errors. This new approach allows plant owners, operators, or potential investors to quickly access multiple battery configurations under different energy generation and market scenarios. This new revenue prediction method will therefore help reduce the barriers, and thereby promoting the deployment of battery hybridization with existing renewable energy sources.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Arctic shipping under global change: A case study of offshore oil exports

We explore impacts of sea ice thinning and evolutions in the energy sector on future use of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) versus the Suez Canal Route (SCR), using a case study of shipping oil extracted from the offshore Russian Arctic to China. We combine an integrated human-Earth system model with a shipping cost model to incorporate impacts on both oil production and shipping costs under internally consistent scenarios. We find that the NSR could become cost-competitive with the SCR as sea ice thickness declines, especially in an RCP8.5 scenario, due to decreasing fuel and icebreaker escort costs. In a global energy evolution scenario consistent with RCP2.6, high emissions costs on the longer SCR may outweigh the costs associated with thicker sea ice on the NSR. Our novel framework provides integrated projections of NSR shipping traffic driven by a specific commodity likely to be shipped through the Arctic.

Arctic↗

Process Capability Study on the Volume Manufacturing of a Complex Rotating Automotive Component in Laser Powder Bed Fusion Additive Manufacturing

Oak Ridge National Lab (ORNL) and Ford Motor Company used an AddUp FormUp 350 to print a turbo wheel geometry to show feasibility of laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) additive manufacturing (AM) in producing cost-effective components for automotive industries. L-PBF AM has potential to disrupt traditional manufacturing techniques by introducing novel materials and geometries that cannot otherwise be produced. Fundamental challenges associated with L-PBF include limitations on printing overhang geometries and resulting surface finish. In this collaboration, ORNL and Ford partnered with AddUp to show the viability of using L-PBF for an AM design turbine wheel while reducing as-fabricated surface roughness. A cost model associated with mass production was produced to analyze benefits of pursing LPBF AM compared to investment casting.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Floating Wind Array Ontology and Modeling Framework

While there are many tools for designing and modeling a single floating turbine, array level design and modeling has much more to consider. Designing floating wind arrays requires a coupled approach considering many variables, from bathymetry to installation and maintenance to failure and risk analysis. With all of these considerations, an array-level modeling tool is needed to quickly evaluate array designs. The Floating Array Model (FAModel) tool developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory was created to fill this gap in low-fidelity array modeling. FAModel is a python framework created to streamline holistic low-fidelity floating wind modeling for array-level analysis. FAModel integrates site data and models with a variety of open-source modeling tools developed by NREL, including FLORIS, RAFT, MoorPy, and anchor capacity models. The integration of these tools allows users to quickly and holistically design an array by considering forces, area analysis, visualization, annual energy production, failure modeling, and component costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Wind plant wake losses: Disconnect between turbine actuation and control of plant wakes with engineering wake models

Wake losses from neighboring plants may become a major factor in wind plant design and control as additional plants are constructed in areas with high wind resource availability. Because plant wakes span a large range of physical scales, from turbine rotor diameter to tens of kilometers, it is unclear whether conventional wake models or turbine control strategies are effective at the plant scale. Wake steering and axial induction control are evaluated in the current work as means of reducing the impact of neighboring wind plants on power and levelized cost of electricity. FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) simulations were performed with the Gauss–Curl Hybrid and TurbOPark wake models as well as two operation and maintenance models to investigate control setpoint sensitivity to wake representation and economic factors. Both wake models estimate losses across a range of atmospheric conditions, although the wake loss magnitude is dependent on the wake model. Annual energy production and levelized cost of electricity are driven by wind direction frequency, with frequently aligned plants experiencing the greatest losses. However, both wake steering and axial induction are unable to mitigate the impact of upstream plants. Wake steering is constrained by plant geometry, since wake displacement is much less than the plant wake width, while axial induction requires curtailing the majority of turbines in upstream plants. Individual turbine strategies are limited by their effective scale and model representation. New wake models that include plant-scale physics are needed to facilitate the design of effective plant wake control strategies.

Scott, Ryan (ORCID:0000000328107574)↗

Primary material supply configurations and domestic recycling for cost-effective battery material production in the US

Battery cathode active material costs hinge on regionally concentrated, price-volatile metal supply. Here. we construct a regional facility-level cost model based on over 80 global lithium, cobalt, and nickel mines, refineries, and battery-grade material plants. Our model yields aggregated lithium, nickel, manganese, and cobalt production material costs from 392 region-based supply configurations for five different cathode active materials. Focusing on the United States, all-domestic supply is 9–34% costlier than global average, increasing by cobalt content, while these shortfalls can be overcome by selective low-cost material imports. Furthermore, we analyze costs of two U.S.-based recycling facilities from primary data and techno-economic modelling and compare resulting cathode active material-level costs to primary supply. Although it is still significantly higher on cathode active material cost-level, rising end-of-life flows and lowered black-mass prices will, however, make secondary supply cost-competitive to domestic and foreign primary supply cost floors. Facility-level benchmarks reveal targeted import, scaling, and production cost optimization as levers for a resilient, cost-effective U.S. battery-material supply chain.

Energy↗

Sustainable production of 5-hydroxymethyl furfural from glucose for process integration with high fructose corn syrup infrastructure

5-Hydroxymethyl furfural (HMF) is a platform chemical, which can be derived from lignocellulosic biomass, and used for production of liquid fuels and polymers. We demonstrate a process for production of HMF using sequential enzymatic and catalytic reactions of glucose to synthesize HMF, and simulated-moving-bed (SMB) separation to purify HMF. The adsorption thermodynamic parameters of glucose, fructose, and HMF on a commercial chromatography resin are experimentally determined for modeling the SMB-based HMF production process. The experimental data are used to develop a rigorous process model and then estimate the cost of production. Chromatographic separation of HMF has 16% lower operating costs compared to an extraction-based process and has a minimum selling price of approximately $1478 per ton. We demonstrate that the HMF process can be integrated with the high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) process, and we performed analyses considering two systems including construction of a new integrated facility and retrofitting an existing HFCS facility to produce HMF. Our analyses suggest that the latter approach is a promising short-term low-risk strategy to advance the HMF production technology to commercial scale.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Wind Turbine Maintenance Costs: Assessing the Potential of Gear Oil Improvements

Wind turbine operations & maintenance (O&M) costs constitute a sizable portion of total energy cost for wind power. There are many components in a utility-scale wind turbine that need to be lubricated with either oil or grease. This study uses gearbox oil as an example and assesses how lubricant technology improvements may impact wind turbine power production and levelized cost of energy. Using the modeling tools (i.e., WOMBAT, reV, and SAM) developed at National Renewable Energy Laboratory and lubrication oil technology scenarios defined based on inputs provided by ExxonMobil and industry stakeholders, we quantify the potential for increasing energy production and reducing maintenance costs across the current and future U.S. fleet of wind turbines as a result of improvements in lubrication technologies. The modeled improvements reduce the median levelized cost of energy by 1-2% across the U.S. fleet. Cumulative saving from gear oil technology improvements in 2050 for U.S. fleet is estimated to be approximately $6 billion. Extending the lubricant replacement interval has a larger impact on total cost and energy production than reducing lubricant cost.

costs↗

Economic Analysis of Integrated Solar Power, Hydrogen Production, and Electricity Markets

Hydrogen is a versatile energy carrier that is used in a wide variety of chemical and industrial processes. Producing hydrogen using electrolysis can enable integration of multiple sectors including electricity, heating, and industrial sectors; however, the cost of producing hydrogen from electrolysis remains a challenge for encouraging greater adoption. To help improve the economics for both solar PV and hydrogen production using electrolyzers, we explore the benefit of combining PV and electrolysis systems. Using the Revenue Operation and Device Optimization Model (RODeO) model, the optimal breakeven hydrogen production cost for six unique market participation configurations is calculated at six candidate locations in California where PV is already installed. Costs include production, storage, and compression in preparation for gaseous delivery trucks. Revenue streams included in the optimization are the sale of hydrogen, Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credits, renewable electricity sold to the grid, and Renewable Energy Credits (REC). The costs included are the electricity costs, capital and fixed operation and maintenance cost (FOM) for the electrolyzer, PV, and storage and compression systems as well as taxes and financing costs. In addition, cost reductions are achieved through retail and wholesale electricity use optimization, by which electricity is purchased at the lowest price and sold, if possible, at the highest price. For all locations analyzed, the breakeven hydrogen production cost results show that, in order of decreasing cost, the system configurations are islanded (highest), separated, NEM, retail, hybrid retail/wholesale, and wholesale (lowest). This report also explores other aspects of hydrogen systems including optimal renewable sizing and resulting energy mixture to the electrolyzer, value of renewable premiums, competition with incumbent technologies, cost sensitivity to a variety of parameters.

decarbonized economy↗